Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Mistrial Formally Declared In Lindsay Clancy Murder Trial After State Supremes Refuse Stay

 

at 9/4/26 2:05pm

Mistrial Formally Declared In Lindsay Clancy Murder Trial After State Supremes Refuse Stay Update (1505ET): The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court denied an emergency stay Friday afternoon in the Lindsay Clancy case, after which the judge formally declared a mistrial.  JUST IN - Massachusetts Supreme Court Justice Dalila Argaez Wendlandt is hearing Lindsay Clancy's defense appeal to stay the mistrial judgement. pic.twitter.com/zOiGYlY9gv — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) September 4, 2026 Clancy, a former labor-and-delivery nurse, is charged with first-degree murder in the January 2023 strangling deaths of her three children (ages 5, 3, and 8 months) in Duxbury. The defense argued she was not criminally responsible due to postpartum psychosis. ? JUST IN: The Lindsay Clancy prosecution has ALREADY told the court they WILL be re-trying this case Lindsay WILL NOT walk free (or walk at all). It's looking like it'll occur later in the fall. Clancy remains in custody, and the next hearing is Sept. 29th. pic.twitter.com/58aPmVJyie — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 4, 2026 * * * Update (1226ET): After the jury remained deadlocked following 36 hours of deliberations over seven days, Judge William Sullivan declared a mistrial in the Lindsay Clancy murder case - however he's given the defense one hour to seek a stay from the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. Judge says he will give Reddington one hour to get a stay from the Supreme Judicial Court. MISTRIAL ON HOLD in Lindsay Clancy case. — Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) September 4, 2026 Why would the defense want a stay of a mistrial? Because if they can instead force the holdout juror to be removed, they avoid a brand new trial and Clancy will go free.  "This is really intense. Reddington asked for emergency Supreme Judicial Court intervention moments before the jury walked back in," reports NewsNation's Brian Entin. Developing... * * * Update (1135ET): A mistrial was declared in the Lindsay Clancy case on Friday, after a holdout juror refused to bend the knee and let her off, Fox News' Bill Melugin reports. BREAKING: Judge declares mistrial in Lindsay Clancy murder case after hung jury. — Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 4, 2026 * * * Lindsay Clancy's defense team is absolutely melting down after Judge William Sullivan refused to remove a holdout juror in Clancy's triple-murder trial, in which the jury must decide whether Clancy is criminally responsible for strangling her three children, Cora, 5; Dawson, 3; and Callan, 8 months. Her defense claims that she was suffering from hallucinations amid postpartum psychosis. The prosecution claims she was not in psychosis when she sent her husband out of the house on long errands, before she murdered her children and then tried to make it appear as though she attempted suicide.  Reuters On Thursday, the jury foreperson sent a note indicating one juror was refusing to apply the judge’s instructions on reasonable doubt. Judge William Sullivan questioned each juror individually at sidebar, then gave the full panel what defense attorney Kevin Reddington later called a "soft" reminder of the law and sent them back to deliberate. "They’ve said at this point that they can," Sullivan said. "That was specifically addressed towards the specific question, and that’s what I’m doing." Reddington demanded that the holdout to be removed, and requested a more pointed inquiry - which Sullivan declined.  JUST IN: Lindsay Clancy stares at the jury as Judge William Sullivan sends them home for the day. The moment came shortly after Clancy's attorney, Kevin Reddington, fumed and called on Sullivan to remove one of the jurors. https://t.co/r7g6JPmXyM pic.twitter.com/32z5efMIKP — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 3, 2026 According to Clancy's defense team, the holdout juror is a man.  "Clearly, we have a person who, under their oath, stood in front of you yesterday … under oath looked you in the eye and lied," said Reddington. "That juror told you that he would be able to apply the law to the facts as you asked him." Reuters When court resumed Friday, Reddington hammered Sullivan, arguing that the prior instruction was inadequate, and pressed again for removal or further questioning of the juror (whom he accused of having lied under oath). Sullivan refused additional inquiry, stating he had considered the issue at length and would not remove the juror. Redding responded by calling Sullivan 'soft' - to which Sullivan replied: "What do you want me to do?! Get a brass band? I read the instruction as written by the Massachusetts Supreme Court. The fact I perhaps did not give it my full inflection, I'm sorry about that, I'm not an actor - I'm giving instruction. ? BREAKING: Lindsay Clancy's defense attorney is MELTING DOWN in court and DIRECTLY SPARRING with the judge, calling the judge "SOFT" DEFENSE: Stop being soft with jury instructions! JUDGE: What do you want me to do?! Get a BRASS BAND?! I read the instruction as written by the… pic.twitter.com/dijDZAdqzG — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 4, 2026 No More Sidebars! Following the spat, Clancy's defense team filed a motion to Sullivan asking that there be no more sidebars for the remainder of the trial - and that all further proceedings be handled in open court. The prosecution, meanwhile, suggested that there be no further questioning of the jury, and asked that Sullivan send them to continue deliberations, arguing that the holdout juror has "no indication of lack of impartiality or bias or extraneous influence, and no indication of inability to deliberate." Reddington disagreed - arguing that the juror appears to have a personal issue getting in the way of him being able to deliberate fairly, and demanded that he be replaced with an alternate.  According to Massachusetts law, a judge can only send a jury back for deliberations twice before declaring a mistrial - which looks like where we're headed. //-- //-- //-- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? Yes 9% · No 92%View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 16:05

— IRS, Treasury Propose Cutting Tax-Exempt Status For Schools With Diversity Policies

 

at 9/4/26 1:40pm

IRS, Treasury Propose Cutting Tax-Exempt Status For Schools With Diversity Policies Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, The Trump administration is proposing a new rule that would strip private colleges and schools of their tax-exempt status if those institutions engaged in racial discrimination through policies such as diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service said on Thursday that a proposed rule would bar a private school from obtaining tax-exempt status under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. tax code if the school "adopts, maintains, or enforces a policy or practice that discriminates on the basis of race, color, or national or ethnic origin." Under the new regulation, which would take effect in May 2027, a broad range of programs administered by schools would be affected. They include admissions, policies, loans, scholarships, and athletics, said the Treasury Department in a news release. The proposal may impact as many as 18,000 private educational institutions across the United States, the IRS and Treasury estimated. "This administration is standing up for America's students by ensuring racial discrimination has no place in American education," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a statement. "Schools rebranding race-based preferences as equitable, inclusive, or diversity-enhancing does not change their discriminatory nature." The proposal, he added, would "establish a clear standard" for private schools to follow, warning that any institution that continues to "use discriminatory practices will no longer receive the benefits of federal tax-exempt status." The move by the Treasury is another attempt to put pressure on schools and colleges to drop DEI policies that had become common before President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Trump officials have said the policies discriminate against white and Asian American students. On his first day in office in his second term last year, Trump signed an order ending a number of DEI-related policies implemented under the Biden administration. Last year, the Trump administration threatened to revoke Harvard University's tax-exempt status during a battle with the nation's oldest college. In a response, Harvard officials said there was no legal basis for doing so and argued it would force cuts to financial aid and crucial medical research. To maintain nonprofit status, which allows donations to be tax-deductible, organizations must follow IRS rules on lobbying, political campaign activity, and annual reporting requirements, as well as other obligations. The IRS says on its website that 501(c)(3) organizations also cannot be operated or organized for the benefit of private interests and that their net earnings cannot "inure to the benefit of any private shareholder or individual." IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bisignano said private schools that promote discriminatory practices will no longer be exempt from taxes. "Today's proposed regulations put institutions on notice and schools that continue to engage in racial discrimination should expect to lose that status," he said in a statement on Thursday. Religious private schools will still be able to maintain a "religious mission, curriculum, or program of religious observance" under the latest proposal, the Treasury Department said. It added that those schools can continue to select students based on religious affiliation or membership, provided they follow guidelines consistent with federal law. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 15:40

— Argentina's Milei Escalates Falklands Dispute With Oil Sanctions On UK, Israeli Firms

 

at 9/4/26 1:20pm

Argentina's Milei Escalates Falklands Dispute With Oil Sanctions On UK, Israeli Firms Argentina's President Milei has announced plans to sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, coming a mere days after President Trump indicated that the US position on the archipelago was "under review". The Libertarian-Right firebrand leader proclaimed quite provocatively that "The Falkland Islands are Argentinian, historically and legally. There is no debate" and added that the "winds of change" have more lately favored Argentina's claim. Milei characterized the Falkland's Sea Lion Project, which is based out of what firmly remains a British territory, as essentially a resource-grab which undermines Argentinian sovereignty.  via photojet The area to be tapped lies some 140 miles north of the Falkland Islands and is widely estimated to hold a whopping 1.7 billion barrels of oil. The ambitious project involves Israeli and British firms, creating rare tensions between staunchly pro-Israeli Milei and what are primarily Tel Aviv-based investors. He further warned that given the project has proceeded without Argentina's permission, it marks a "concrete and urgent danger," given that "If we fail to act, within a few months, they will possess the physical capacity to take the oil reserves that lie beneath our waters." According to more on ownership details via Reuters: The project's two owners have strong Israeli ties. Sea Lion is operated by Tel Aviv-listed Navitas Petroleum (NVPTp.TA), which ​holds a 65% stake. Gideon Tadmor, a prominent figure in Israel's energy sector and also the company's chair, holds about 9% of shares in the company, ​according to LSEG data. The remaining 35% of Sea Lion is owned by London-listed Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L), with Israel-based Noked Capital, Brosh Funds ⁠and ION Fund Management among its top five investors, owning between 4.6% and 9.2% each. Navitas and Rockhopper said the Sea Lion project had valid licenses and that ​they did not expect Milei's comments to have a material effect on the project's development. Navitas is charging ahead, indicating in its statement that it won't bow to Argentine pressure and that it's done everything correctly and legally. "The Partnership operates pursuant to valid petroleum licences lawfully granted to it by the ​Government of the Falkland Islands, a self-governing UK Overseas Territory, and with the full and ongoing support of the UK Government," Navitas said. The Falklands remain a unique pressure point for Britain, which fought a war over the islands in the early 1980s. The United Kingdom has controlled it going all the way back to 1833. However, Trump's recent signaling that he'll reconsider the US' position on the Falklands appears to be a big lever over London, and of course there's the reality that Trump's alignment with Milei is tighter than ever.  'If we allow it, we create incentive for British govt to DEEPEN its occupation' — Argentina's Milei opposes Falkland Islands 'Sea Lion' oil project pic.twitter.com/M8JmqMr5H4 — RT Intl (@RT_on_X) September 4, 2026 Recent reporting in The Telegraph said the Trump administration is using Britain's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands ultimately as leverage to pressure the European ally into meeting NATO's new defense-spending target.  Back in April, Milei proclaimed on X in Spanish that "The Malvinas were, are, and always will be Argentine" - using the Argentine name for the islands. He also told media outlets at the time that his government is doing "everything humanly possible" to return the Falklands to Argentina.  Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 15:20

— Pentagon, HHS Investigating Whether COVID Vaccines Contributed To Military Deaths

 

at 9/4/26 1:00pm

Pentagon, HHS Investigating Whether COVID Vaccines Contributed To Military Deaths Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness, The Trump administration is investigating whether COVID-19 vaccines contributed to the deaths of U.S. service members following the Biden administration's military vaccine mandate, according to testimony from an Army doctor assigned to the effort. Army physician Theresa Long said in an Aug. 14 federal court deposition that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth detailed her to serve as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s senior medical military adviser. Long said she is examining 2,544 unverified reports of deaths among service members submitted to the federal Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, following COVID vaccination. VAERS is an early-warning surveillance system that accepts reports of health problems occurring after vaccination. A report does not establish that a vaccine caused the medical event or death. Long, who is board certified in aerospace medicine and holds a master's degree in public health, said she hopes to complete her investigation within a year. She also testified that she knows of 28 people who died because of COVID vaccines but said she was not permitted to provide additional information supporting that assertion. The investigation comes as the Trump administration reexamines the military's handling of the COVID pandemic and the Biden administration's 2021 vaccine mandate. Nearly 9,000 service members were discharged for refusing COVID vaccinations before Congress ordered the Pentagon to rescind the mandate in 2022. The Defense Department has since established a COVID-19 Reinstatement and Reconciliation Task Force to assist troops who left the military over the requirement and want to return. "The Department continues to right the wrongs of the past and to restore confidence in, and honor to, our fighting force," the Pentagon said in announcing the task force. Long is also reviewing military health surveillance systems and two medical databases from the pandemic period. A 2026 Pentagon report found an increase in myocarditis and pericarditis among active-duty service members shortly after COVID vaccination, but said the increase was not sustained over one year. The report did not identify vaccine-related deaths. The FDA has also required updated warnings for mRNA COVID vaccines concerning myocarditis and pericarditis. The agency reported a higher incidence among young men, with 27 cases per million vaccinations compared with 8 per million in the general population for the period it analyzed. Long's previously undisclosed assignment indicates that the Trump administration's review of the Biden-era military vaccine mandate now extends beyond reinstating discharged troops to examining whether the vaccines themselves caused serious injuries or deaths among service members. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 15:00

— Deutsche Bank: August US Auto Sales Beat Forecasts, But Incentives Remain A Factor

 

at 9/4/26 12:40pm

Deutsche Bank: August US Auto Sales Beat Forecasts, But Incentives Remain A Factor U.S. auto sales came in stronger than expected in August, offering another sign that consumer demand for new vehicles remains relatively resilient despite elevated borrowing costs and broader questions about the economy. According to Deutsche Bank’s auto team, led by Edison Yu, August sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of roughly 16.9 million vehicles. That was comfortably ahead of the bank’s 16.4 million estimate and also above the roughly 16.4 million pace recorded a year earlier. The headline SAAR number was strong, although the underlying monthly figures were somewhat less impressive. Automakers sold approximately 1.388 million vehicles during August, slightly above July’s 1.380 million but below the roughly 1.482 million vehicles sold in August 2025. Sales among both the Detroit Three and major Japanese automakers were modestly better than Deutsche Bank expected. But Hyundai Group was one of the biggest contributors to the upside surprise, beating the bank’s forecast by approximately 14,000 vehicles. Other brands accounted for the remainder of the beat. The closely watched large pickup market was more mixed. Daily sales declined for most major truck models, but Ram was a notable exception. Ram sales increased by roughly 105 vehicles per day to around 1,550, with Deutsche Bank attributing much of that strength to aggressive incentive spending. Higher sales are obviously positive for volumes, but when they are being generated through heavier discounts and incentives, the improvement doesn’t necessarily translate into equally strong profitability for manufacturers. Inventory remains relatively controlled. Industry-wide inventories slipped to approximately 49 days of supply, compared with 50 days previously, although that remains above the 47-day level seen in 2025. Truck inventories declined by one day to 52 days of supply, while passenger-car inventories dropped by two days to just 34. Taken together, the August numbers paint a reasonably healthy picture of the U.S. auto market. Sales are running better than expected, inventories aren’t showing signs of a major glut, and the annualized selling rate remains comfortably above 16 million vehicles. Deutsche Bank isn’t extrapolating August’s 16.9 million pace into a dramatically stronger industry forecast, however. Yu and his team continue to expect a 16.0 million SAAR for full-year 2026, roughly consistent with forecasts from the major automakers themselves. For 2027, Deutsche Bank is forecasting only a modest improvement to 16.1 million. In other words, August was a good month, but Deutsche Bank isn’t calling it the beginning of an auto boom. The more interesting question from here may be how much manufacturers have to spend on incentives to keep sales around these levels...particularly if consumers remain squeezed by high vehicle prices and financing costs. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 14:40

— Trump Admin Asks Supreme Court To Unblock New Mail-Ballot Rules Before States Start Mailing

 

at 9/4/26 12:20pm

Trump Admin Asks Supreme Court To Unblock New Mail-Ballot Rules Before States Start Mailing Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times, The Trump administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 3 to allow the government to begin implementing a regulation that tightens rules around mail-in voting. In the emergency application, U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer asked the justices to stay U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani's Aug. 27 order that blocks the United States Postal Service (USPS) from enforcing a final rule published Aug. 26. The rule implements Section 3 of President Donald Trump's Executive Order 14399, which assigns federal agencies a larger role in who receives a mail ballot and how those ballots are processed by the USPS. Talwani issued a 14-day temporary restraining order that blocked the post office from implementing the parts of Section 3 that required state and local election officials to submit outbound and return mail envelopes for USPS design review, place unique tracking barcodes on those envelopes, and upload voter names, addresses, and barcode data to a new federal portal. Mailings that do not match portal data or that fall short of the envelope standards would not be accepted for delivery. The judge said in her Aug. 27 ruling that the agency had presented no evidence of fraudulent mail-in voting that would justify the new USPS rule and that the rule itself was likely unlawful and adopted in violation of the U.S. Constitution, which gives states primary authority to administer elections. "USPS's interest in correcting an unsubstantiated problem through likely unconstitutional means is dwarfed by the overwhelming risk of pervasive disenfranchisement of citizens who need access to mail ballots in order to vote," she said. "The balance of harms and public interest warrants a [temporary restraining order]." New York Attorney General Letitia James said on Aug. 26 that the postal regulation issued under the executive order will "create confusion, unnecessary costs, and unacceptable risks for voters going into Election Day." She said officials would have to rush to redesign envelopes, obtain federal approval, and develop new list-transmission systems while already preparing to mail ballots. The short-term freeze was set to expire around Sept. 10 if Talwani declined to extend it. Earlier in the day on Sept. 3, the judge held a hearing on extending the temporary restraining order. Separately, the Trump administration previously filed an appeal of the restraining order that is still pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit. Sauer said the nation's highest court needs to act urgently. "Even before September 10, two States - North Carolina and Alabama - will begin sending ballots to voters, the first as soon as September 4. Once those ballot envelopes enter the mailstream, there is no retrieving them," he said. The solicitor general also asked the Supreme Court for an immediate administrative stay so the rule can take effect while the justices review the briefs. The application was directed to Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who oversees emergency appeals from Massachusetts, where Talwani is based. Jackson directed the respondents - including several states and advocacy groups - to file a reply to the application by 10 a.m. on Sept. 8. On Aug. 24, the Supreme Court lifted an earlier injunction after finding a challenge was premature because the post office had not yet issued a final rule. The high court's ruling allowed Trump - for the time being - to implement his executive order ahead of the November midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. The justices didn't rule on the lawfulness of Trump's executive order, but said the states that sued weren't harmed and therefore shouldn't have received relief from the Massachusetts judge. In the new application, Sauer said that days after the Supreme Court issued its ruling, the district court "issued an order partially barring implementation of that rule, without meaningfully addressing the rule's contents or providing any meaningful analysis to support its conclusion that the rule was unlawful." The lower court's "continued prejudgment of the rule is baseless," and a stay should be issued immediately, because "the District Court's errors deal 'a serious setback' to the Executive's 'goals' while this litigation unfolds." The states "cannot choose to use the federal mails to carry out their elections but then insist that their election-related mail is somehow exempt from the Postal Service's rulemaking authority," Sauer said. The USPS rule "imposes only modest requirements on the use of the federal postal system - it does not regulate state administration of elections." Sauer quoted the rule, which says the USPS "will not play any role in determining voter eligibility, maintaining voter rolls, or counting ballots." Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 14:20

— Enes Kanter Freedom Files Lawsuit After Chicago Sky Ejection, Ban

 

at 9/4/26 11:40am

Enes Kanter Freedom Files Lawsuit After Chicago Sky Ejection, Ban Authored by Timothy Frudd via The Epoch Times, Former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom filed a lawsuit on Sept. 3 after he was ejected during a Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) game and banned from future games. Kanter Freedom sued the Chicago Women's Basketball Operations, LLC, which operates the Chicago Sky. The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority and the City of Chicago were also named in the complaint. The lawsuit alleged that the three entities conspired and acted together to discriminate against Kanter Freedom based on his "verbal and demonstrable expression of viewpoint and gender identity" by wrongfully ejecting him from the Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever game on Aug. 23 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. Security escorted Kanter Freedom out of Wintrust Arena after an altercation occurred between the former NBA player and Chicago Sky guard Natasha Cloud. After Cloud scored late in the third quarter, she appeared to approach Kanter Freedom, who was seated along the baseline. In Thursday's lawsuit, Kanter Freedom alleged that Cloud "without provocation, initiated a vulgar, profanity-laced verbal tirade" directed at him. Thursday's lawsuit stated that Kanter Freedom believed Cloud was "motivated and triggered" by the message on his shirt and his "widely publicized viewpoint on protecting the integrity of women only sports." At the time of the incident, Kanter Freedom was wearing a black shirt bearing the words, "WOMAN noun. adult human female." During the altercation, Kanter Freedom stood up with his arms outstretched and stepped onto the basketball court before basketball officials, multiple Chicago Sky players, and security personnel moved between the two. Kanter Freedom was then escorted from the arena. Kanter Freedom addressed the lawsuit against the Chicago Sky in a social media post on Thursday. Kanter Freedom said he was "peacefully exercising" his First Amendment rights at the WNBA game. "My T-shirt did what the whole @WNBA apparently couldn't: define a woman. No threats. No violence. Just biology. And somehow, that required a security escort," he wrote. "You don't have to agree with my speech but you don't get to silence me for it," he added. "I will not be intimidated. I will not be silenced. I will continue to stand for women and defend free speech." Chicago Sky owner Michael Alter announced on Aug. 25 that Kanter Freedom would not be allowed in the arena for future games unless he was able to prove that he could "abide by our rules without being a potential threat." Alter also accused Kanter Freedom of having attended the game to provoke the players and attract attention. The lawsuit alleged that Alter mischaracterized both the altercation between Kanter Freedom and Cloud and his intention to "protect women only sports." Kanter Freedom also denied provoking Cloud prior to her approach at the game. "The Chicago Sky; [Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority], through Wintrust Arena Security; and the City of Chicago, by its Police Department, worked together to eject Plaintiff in retaliation for protected expression, and continue to work together to enforce the ongoing, unconstitutional ban of Plaintiff from Wintrust Arena, which is public property owned by MPEA," the lawsuit stated. "Plaintiff's damages continue as long as the unconstitutional ban of Plaintiff from Wintrust Arena remains in place." The lawsuit asked the court to award nominal and compensatory damages, as well as attorney fees for Kanter Freedom. It also asked for a permanent injunction directing the defendants to remove the ban on his attendance at Wintrust Arena. The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority told The Epoch Times on Sept. 3 that it did not have any comment on the lawsuit filed by Kanter Freedom. The corporation noted that its agreement with the Chicago Sky gave the WNBA team the ability to control whether individuals were permitted to access Wintrust Arena on game days. "The Chicago Sky informed MPEA that Enes Freedom was removed from the arena and banned from future Chicago Sky events because he violated rules imposed by the WNBA," the Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority said. "MPEA employees were not involved in those decisions." The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority added that the Chicago Sky's ban of Kanter Freedom was only applicable to WNBA games and did not apply to other events at Wintrust Arena. The Epoch Times reached out to the Chicago Sky and the City of Chicago but did not receive a response before publication time. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 13:40

— "Apathy, Caution, And Chagrin": UBS Sours On Consumer Stocks

 

at 9/4/26 11:05am

"Apathy, Caution, And Chagrin": UBS Sours On Consumer Stocks The Street's mood toward US retail has been described by UBS analysts as "apathy, caution, and chagrin." "Investors are engaged, but not necessarily enthusiastic. They remain interested, but increasingly selective. Most importantly, conviction feels harder earned than it has in years," Michael Lasser, a managing director and senior equity-research analyst at UBS, wrote in a note on Thursday. Goldman Sachs consumer expert Scott Feiler wrote yesterday that "consumer stocks have had a tough run the last few weeks" and pointed to Goldman's prime brokerage data, which show that gross exposure to retail stocks has plunged to a multi-year low, signaling that hedge funds have reduced their exposure this year. Returning to Lasser, the UBS analyst warned that consumers are facing affordability pressures, elevated interest rates, inflation, labor-market uncertainty, tariffs, freight costs, and geopolitical instability, all of which have pushed investors to view retail through a defensive lens. The broad consensus is that the US consumer remains resilient, but that conclusion masks deepening income-based bifurcation. Accelerating sales at Dollar General and Dollar Tree, alongside moderating trends at Walmart and Costco, have renewed questions about whether consumers are beginning to trade down. Credit-card delinquencies, equity-market wealth effects, and fuel prices are emerging as critical indicators for spending through 2027. Lasser explained: At times, investing in retail today feels like crossing a river against a steady current. Every step forward is informed by the latest demand signals, market share reads, or channel checks. Daily stock movements frequently reflect changing narratives around risk rather than changes in underlying fundamentals. In some cases, share price action appears to be influencing investment theses as much as investment theses are influencing share price action. Against that backdrop, confidence has become relative. Selectivity remains exceptionally high. The market is rewarding execution over aspiration, consistency over storytelling, and evidence over possibility. That dynamic is unlikely to change in the near term unless the macroeconomic undertow begins to recede. Lasser added a lot more color about the current state of the consumer: The State of the Consumer The broad consensus remains that the consumer is holding up reasonably well. Yet that conclusion masks an increasingly nuanced debate. Income-based bifurcation has become so widely accepted that it is almost cliché. The more relevant question today is whether this remains an investable theme and how durable it may prove to be. The recent acceleration at the dollar stores alongside moderation at Walmart and Costco has prompted renewed questions about shifting consumer behavior. Investors continue to monitor credit card delinquencies, wealth effects tied to equity markets, and fuel prices as key variables that could shape spending patterns over the next several quarters. Sentiment Swings and Market Positioning Perhaps the most striking characteristic of the current environment is the magnitude of sentiment volatility relative to changes in business fundamentals. Recent examples include Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Target, and Ulta, where investor opinion periodically swung far beyond what underlying operating results appeared to justify. When evidence emerges that challenges the prevailing narrative, consensus often snaps back just as aggressively in the opposite direction. This creates fertile ground for mispricing opportunities and outsized returns for investors willing to be patient. More recently, many of these discussions have centered on names such as Dick's Sporting Goods, AutoZone, and Tractor Supply. Interest Rates and Replacement Cycles Interest rates continue to serve as one of the sector's most important variables. Home Depot, Lowe's, and Floor & Decor have largely traded as housing and bond-proxy vehicles, while Best Buy, Williams-Sonoma, and Wayfair have increasingly been viewed as beneficiaries of an eventual replacement cycle. The key debate is whether a declining rate environment would lift all of these businesses equally. Investors increasingly question whether lower rates alone are sufficient or whether company-specific execution and category fundamentals will ultimately prove more important. Tariff Refunds and the Coming Anniversary Effect Another emerging area of focus is the growing divide between tariff refund beneficiaries and those largely excluded from those benefits. Retailers such as Walmart, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Home Depot, Tractor Supply, and Best Buy are generally viewed as beneficiaries. Meanwhile, Target, Williams-Sonoma, and Five Below are more commonly viewed as those on the other side of that group. This distinction may become increasingly important as investors begin to focus on the anniversary of these benefits and their second- and third-order implications for margins, pricing strategies, and earnings growth moving into next year. The Nuanced Debates Beyond the headline themes, countless smaller discussions continue to shape investor thinking. Topics ranging from nominal pricing and demographic trends to category-specific dynamics are influencing views on which retailers can sustainably grow above GDP and which may struggle to keep pace heading into 2027. He touched on individual names: Walmart Walmart appears to be undergoing a gradual regeneration of its shareholder base. Investors have become more comfortable with underlying comp trends excluding Health & Wellness, although there is some concern that H&W-related headwinds could become more pronounced in 2027. Discussions around store-level economics, margin expansion opportunities, and the long-term earnings power of the business remain central to the debate. The prevailing view is that the stock may remain range-bound near term as investors wait for proof that the most compelling elements of the investment thesis can translate into tangible financial outcomes. Costco Conversation around Costco has been comparatively subdued. The August sales release reignited debate over whether recent performance reflects continued deceleration or the early stages of stabilization. Bulls remain focused on traffic growth, membership engagement, and the enduring strength of Costco's flywheel. Skeptics question whether the stock can continue to command its premium valuation if the business settles into a slightly lower long-term comp framework. Target Investor sentiment toward Target has swung dramatically over the past year. A few quarters of mid-single-digit comparable sales growth have meaningfully altered the narrative. The discussion has shifted from questioning the relevance of the business to debating its long-term earnings potential. Key debates center around 2027 comp expectations, tougher margin comparisons, and valuation. Consensus expectations that once centered around approximately $10 of earnings power have increasingly migrated toward the possibility of nearly $12 in 2027. Where investors fall along that spectrum largely determines whether they view the stock as attractive or fully valued. BJ's Wholesale Club Investors have been more open to this stock as of late. There's been some surprise on the degree to which its shares have pulled back after a reasonably solid print. While the stock remains heavily influenced by the data, bulls have expressed optimism about it seeing improving trends from both its higher income and lower income shoppers. Bears remain skeptical about the sustainability of its recent performance, and are concerned that tough gas compares and more normalized MFI increases could pressure earnings growth in CY'27. Dollar General Investors broadly appreciate the improvement in operational execution and the progress management has made over the past year. Operationally, the largest debate centers on the health of the mature store base. Core mature-store comps hovering around flat levels have become a focal point. Some investors worry that persistently muted comp growth could create longer-term margin pressure given the operating leverage embedded within the model. There are also questions surrounding the sustainability of the recent gross margin expansion cycle. With much of the benefit from shrink reduction and damage improvements potentially already realized, and LIFO tailwinds likely moderating, investors are increasingly debating how much incremental margin upside remains available. The contribution opportunity from DG Media continues to generate constructive discussion as well. Meanwhile, the bullish camp argues that the company has successfully re-established itself as a double-digit algorithm business capable of delivering attractive earnings growth over time. Dollar Tree Sentiment toward Dollar Tree continues to improve as investors focus on simplification, operational execution, and self-help opportunities. The traffic inflection has strengthened the bullish narrative and quieted many of the skeptics. While investors still seek additional proof points, there is growing recognition that the direction of travel has improved meaningfully. The primary debates now center on tariff refund anniversaries and the potential impact of elevated freight costs as the company moves into 2027. Some say that, as a result of these factors, margins remain uncertain moving forward.  Goldman consumer stocks versus AAA retail gasoline The takeaway here is that US consumer has imploded. It is that resilient headline data are concealing widening fractures beneath the surface. Accelerating sales at dollar stores, alongside moderating trends at Walmart and Costco, suggest that spending is shifting toward discount retailers.  Hedge funds appear to have recognized the shift, as the Goldman data suggests gross exposure to retail stocks is at a multi-year low.  Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 13:05

— Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Six-Year High As Debasement Fears Mount

 

at 9/4/26 10:50am

Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Six-Year High As Debasement Fears Mount Authored by Mathew Di Salvo via BitcoinMagazine.com, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is at its highest in six years as investors increasingly look for ways to hedge against currency debasement.  That’s according to a new report from Bitwise, which this week pointed out that the precious metal and leading cryptocurrency are trading in lockstep because the U.S. government has “materially intervened in the macro picture.”  Bitcoin started surging last month, after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The coin had its best run in three years and third best August ever.  “The last time the bitcoin-gold correlation was that high was in 2020, following the rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the Covid crisis,” Bitwise’s European Head of Research, André Dragosch, wrote.  JUST IN: Bitcoin's correlation with gold hit a six-year high, according to Bitwise ? "The last time it was this high was 2020, after the Covid stimulus." ? pic.twitter.com/fHtQUlR9Ol — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 3, 2026 He added that bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market dropped to a one-year low, “implying some kind of decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.” Bitcoin has been pushed as “digital gold” for years but has sometimes traded with tech stocks as a “risk-on” asset.  But the so-called debasement trade — when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value — was a much-talked about investment strategy last year and appears to be back.  The reason is down to the government intervening in markets, Dragosch argued. When the Treasury said it would try to rein in long-term borrowing costs, the dollar’s value slid and sent investors flooding back to gold — and bitcoin.  The Treasury the same week also said the U.S. public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time. Excessive debt also undermines confidence in the dollar.  “Investors are no longer asking whether to hedge currency debasement with gold or bitcoin. They’re simply hedging with both,” the report added.  “Bitcoin spent its first fifteen years being priced as a risk asset. If this correlation trend with gold holds, the next fifteen may look very different.” The leading cryptocurrency again rallied this week, and was recently trading for close to $81,438 after jumping nearly 6% over a 24-hour period.  Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:50

— Chinese Rare-Earth Suppliers Halt US Shipments As Decoupling Fears Surge

 

at 9/4/26 10:35am

Chinese Rare-Earth Suppliers Halt US Shipments As Decoupling Fears Surge The scenario we viewed as inevitable appears to be materializing, validating our decision to intensify coverage of the US-China decoupling theme and the Western-aligned miners positioned to supply the West if Beijing further weaponizes critical material exports, as it has throughout the Trump 2.0 era. A Reuters report on Friday morning revealed that some Chinese rare-earth suppliers are refusing to ship material to US customers, citing fear of retaliation from Beijing. The report continued: A handful of Chinese suppliers have refused to ship rare earths to U.S. companies since early August when China imposed sanctions on the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA), a U.S. supply chain monitor, a separate source with direct knowledge of the situation said. With China deploying its own trade compliance weapons, the companies were wary of punishment from Beijing for complying with the due diligence framework of the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI), a global mineral supply chain audit programme connected with the RBA, the source said. Other Chinese rare earths companies had already stopped shipments to the U.S. to avoid entanglement in geopolitics in recent months, two other sources familiar with the trade said. One cited four instances where Chinese firms declined to send material for fear it could be resold to banned users. The exact number of blocked suppliers and shipments remains unknown, and that ambiguity is itself part of Beijing's asymmetric leverage campaign against the US. China does not need to announce a formal trade embargo to choke critical material flows. Export controls, licensing delays, and the threat of regulatory retaliation can halt shipments to US importers almost overnight. Really, Beijing retains a kill switch inside US defense, aerospace, semiconductor, and energy supply chains, forcing companies to scramble for substitutes only after supplies have collapsed. That's why we've sounded the alarm in recent weeks that the decoupling theme should be top of mind for Wall Street desks, with our coverage focused on tungsten and germanium, both of which have been restricted from export to the US and are colliding with a rearmament cycle in the West. Here's what we've reported over the last few weeks leading up to the Reuters headline this morning: The AI Boom Runs On Tungsten, But Global Supplies Are "Running On Empty" US Tungsten Scrap Export Ban Takes Effect As Global Supply Crisis Deepens What Happens When A Metal The West Can't Live Without Runs Short The West's Answer To Break China's Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps China's Tungsten Chokehold Turns Almonty Into a Critical-Metal Lifeline China's Record Ship Swarm Around Taiwan Sends Decoupling Alarm To Wall Street China's tungsten export restrictions have sent European prices soaring... Late last month, the US Commerce Department halted exports of tungsten scrap and shredded battery material in a defensive move to retain scarce supplies inside the country. The move merely shows how rapidly Washington is shifting from the free-trade status quo toward resource security as domestic supplies dwindle and an urgent race emerges across the West to procure new ex-China supplies. The Sino-US bilateral relationship deteriorated yet again this week after Beijing derailed the G20 joint communiqué over a single phrase, "non-market," only weeks after the Trump administration sanctioned Chinese entities linked to Iran. All eyes now turn to the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington later this month. The decoupling theme should be top of mind on Wall Street as China restricts critical-material flows to the West. These materials are essential building blocks not only for next year's rearmament supercycle but also for AI, reindustrialization trends, efforts to power up America, and even physical AI. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:35

— Not So Fast: Mistrial Declared In Lindsay Clancy Murder Trial, But Judge Gives Defense An Hour To Seek Stay

 

at 9/4/26 10:26am

Not So Fast: Mistrial Declared In Lindsay Clancy Murder Trial, But Judge Gives Defense An Hour To Seek Stay Update (1226ET): After the jury remained deadlocked following 36 hours of deliberations over seven days, Judge William Sullivan declared a mistrial in the Lindsay Clancy murder case - however he's given the defense one hour to seek a stay from the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. Judge says he will give Reddington one hour to get a stay from the Supreme Judicial Court. MISTRIAL ON HOLD in Lindsay Clancy case. — Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) September 4, 2026 Why would the defense want a stay of a mistrial? Because if they can instead force the holdout juror to be removed, they avoid a brand new trial and Clancy will go free.  "This is really intense. Reddington asked for emergency Supreme Judicial Court intervention moments before the jury walked back in," reports NewsNation's Brian Entin. Developing... * * * Update (1135ET): A mistrial was declared in the Lindsay Clancy case on Friday, after a holdout juror refused to bend the knee and let her off, Fox News' Bill Melugin reports. BREAKING: Judge declares mistrial in Lindsay Clancy murder case after hung jury. — Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 4, 2026 * * * Lindsay Clancy's defense team is absolutely melting down after Judge William Sullivan refused to remove a holdout juror in Clancy's triple-murder trial, in which the jury must decide whether Clancy is criminally responsible for strangling her three children, Cora, 5; Dawson, 3; and Callan, 8 months. Her defense claims that she was suffering from hallucinations amid postpartum psychosis. The prosecution claims she was not in psychosis when she sent her husband out of the house on long errands, before she murdered her children and then tried to make it appear as though she attempted suicide.  Reuters On Thursday, the jury foreperson sent a note indicating one juror was refusing to apply the judge’s instructions on reasonable doubt. Judge William Sullivan questioned each juror individually at sidebar, then gave the full panel what defense attorney Kevin Reddington later called a "soft" reminder of the law and sent them back to deliberate. "They’ve said at this point that they can," Sullivan said. "That was specifically addressed towards the specific question, and that’s what I’m doing." Reddington demanded that the holdout to be removed, and requested a more pointed inquiry - which Sullivan declined.  JUST IN: Lindsay Clancy stares at the jury as Judge William Sullivan sends them home for the day. The moment came shortly after Clancy's attorney, Kevin Reddington, fumed and called on Sullivan to remove one of the jurors. https://t.co/r7g6JPmXyM pic.twitter.com/32z5efMIKP — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 3, 2026 According to Clancy's defense team, the holdout juror is a man.  "Clearly, we have a person who, under their oath, stood in front of you yesterday … under oath looked you in the eye and lied," said Reddington. "That juror told you that he would be able to apply the law to the facts as you asked him." Reuters When court resumed Friday, Reddington hammered Sullivan, arguing that the prior instruction was inadequate, and pressed again for removal or further questioning of the juror (whom he accused of having lied under oath). Sullivan refused additional inquiry, stating he had considered the issue at length and would not remove the juror. Redding responded by calling Sullivan 'soft' - to which Sullivan replied: "What do you want me to do?! Get a brass band? I read the instruction as written by the Massachusetts Supreme Court. The fact I perhaps did not give it my full inflection, I'm sorry about that, I'm not an actor - I'm giving instruction. ? BREAKING: Lindsay Clancy's defense attorney is MELTING DOWN in court and DIRECTLY SPARRING with the judge, calling the judge "SOFT" DEFENSE: Stop being soft with jury instructions! JUDGE: What do you want me to do?! Get a BRASS BAND?! I read the instruction as written by the… pic.twitter.com/dijDZAdqzG — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 4, 2026 No More Sidebars! Following the spat, Clancy's defense team filed a motion to Sullivan asking that there be no more sidebars for the remainder of the trial - and that all further proceedings be handled in open court. The prosecution, meanwhile, suggested that there be no further questioning of the jury, and asked that Sullivan send them to continue deliberations, arguing that the holdout juror has "no indication of lack of impartiality or bias or extraneous influence, and no indication of inability to deliberate." Reddington disagreed - arguing that the juror appears to have a personal issue getting in the way of him being able to deliberate fairly, and demanded that he be replaced with an alternate.  According to Massachusetts law, a judge can only send a jury back for deliberations twice before declaring a mistrial - which looks like where we're headed. //-- //-- //-- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? Yes 9% · No 92%View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:26

— Russia Tries To Assassinate Ukraine's SBU Chief With Unprecedented Drone Attack On Kyiv HQ

 

at 9/4/26 10:15am

Russia Tries To Assassinate Ukraine's SBU Chief With Unprecedented Drone Attack On Kyiv HQ The Kremlin has long previewed that its next escalation step against Ukraine would be to start attacking 'decision-making centers', or headquarters and government buildings. That moment has clearly begun and is now in an active phase, also as strikes ramp up on the key southern port of Odesa, as well as on Ukraine-linked cargo and other shipping. On Friday a Russian drone slammed into the headquarters of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) in central Kyiv. The SBU is the country's top domestic security and intelligence service - somewhat akin to the FBI in America. It primarily oversees counterintelligence, counterterrorism, espionage investigations, as well as engages in some law-enforcement functions, especially concerning top level crime including among government officials. It has been the mastermind behind multiple high-level deadly and destructive attacks on Russia. Drone targeted SBU chief at around 3:30pm local, via pravda.com.ua President Zelensky soon after the attack announced and confirmed that the SBU's central building on Volodymyrska Street, in the heart of iconic downtown near St. Sophia Cathedral, was struck. Flames and smoke have been seen billowing high over the high-secure central district. "I spoke with the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Oleksandr Poklad. Unfortunately, a Russian drone struck the central building of the Security Service of Ukraine on Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv, across from St. Sophia Cathedral," Zelensky said. "The drone was aimed directly at the office of the Head of the Security Service in that building," he added. Zelensky has ordered his military to mount a "tangible response and, where possible, one that mirrors this strike, to the Russians once everything is ready. Our military will support this response." If accurate, this sends an alarming and resounding message - that not only is Moscow now willing to directly target top headquarters buildings, but that it's ready to assassinate intelligence directors.  President Zelensky said the drone had precisely targeted the office of the head of the SBU service, Oleksandr Poklad, but he had survived the attack —The Times Big smoke cloud in drone strike aftermath targeting security HQ. ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock European media reports of the immediate aftermath, "Zelenskyy said emergency services were attending the scene. There was no immediate information on casualties." A large explosion was widely heard among bystanders during a mid-afternoon air raid siren in the capital city, after which Mayor Vitali Klitschko initially reported a fire and said emergency crews were headed to the scene. Several drones had been inbound during the attack incident. According to some of the latest reporting via CNN: The daytime strike - the first time the SBU building has been hit in the four-and-a-half year conflict - came after days of near continuous aerial assaults by Russia on the Ukrainian capital. Authorities said 12 people were injured in the attack and that emergency services were at the scene. ⚡️ BREAKING: Attempted assassination of the head of Ukraine’s intelligence service Russian Shahed drone strikes the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) building in Kyiv. President Zelenskyy said the following: “The drone was directed straight at the office of the head of the SBU… pic.twitter.com/DRax4RI0Kb — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 4, 2026 This comes after more than a week of consecutive nightly drone and missile attacks on the capital, as Russia indicates it is 'repaying' Ukraine for its own constant long-range drone attacks which have wreaked havoc on oil refineries and industrial sites this summer. "At least 53 people have been killed and 134 injured in Kyiv city and the wider Kyiv region since the start of these near non-stop attacks last month," CNN also notes. Unprecedented: Downtown SBU headquarters on fire... A Russian drone hit Ukraine's SBU headquarters in Kyiv, Zelensky says. pic.twitter.com/ZevaXpLbEV — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 4, 2026 This even could serve as the catalyst that gets Zelensky's Western backers to rush more anti-air missiles and systems - such as the Patriot - to Ukraine. "It is rare for government buildings in central Kyiv to be reached by Russian strikes, especially in broad daylight," The Guardian underscores. "The explosion from the hit on the SBU building could be heard several from several blocks away." One thing is clear: the gloves are indeed coming off. And just as Trump may be trying to de-escalate the Iran war ahead of November midterms in the US, the Russia-Ukraine war just massively escalated past a likely point of no return. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:15

— US Diesel Pump Prices Hit Record As Global Refined-Products Crisis Threatens Industrial Economy

 

at 9/4/26 10:00am

US Diesel Pump Prices Hit Record As Global Refined-Products Crisis Threatens Industrial Economy Goldman explained this week that Gulf oil exports had recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, with the rise of dark tanker transits obscuring some flows from conventional tracking via the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Yet headline crude volumes don't tell the entire story. As we have repeatedly noted, crude itself does not keep the industrial economy humming. Diesel does. US RETAIL DIESEL PRICES ADVANCE TO RECORD HIGH, AAA DATA SHOWS https://t.co/LjXZw8fxYR — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 4, 2026 Make no mistake: There is a refined-products crisis because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian one-way drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. That tightening in physical markets, especially for diesel, was evident on Thursday, when US retail pump prices reached a record high. US retail diesel prices surged to a record $5.85 per gallon on Thursday, according to new data from AAA, surpassing the previous peak reached in June 2022. Unlike crude oil, diesel is the fuel that keeps the industrial economy moving: It powers trucks, construction equipment, tractors, generators, and home-heating systems. The spike threatens to unleash another wave of energy-driven inflation just as global supplies tighten ahead of the Northern Hemisphere's harvest and heating seasons. Bloomberg's NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the Bloomberg Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to $108 early Wednesday. It was trading at $99 early Friday morning. President Trump urged US refiners earlier this week to increase production and lower gasoline and diesel prices, but the industry has limited spare capacity. Many facilities are already operating near, or even above, their stated maximum processing rates following a summer production surge. Despite the recovery in tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, TotalEnergies SE head Patrick Pouyanne recently said there wasn't a "single tanker of products" moving out of the waterway. Again, the energy crisis is in the refined-products complex. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 12:00

— "We Have The Receipts": Bartiromo Denies Fox Firing

 

at 9/4/26 9:30am

"We Have The Receipts": Bartiromo Denies Fox Firing Update (1155ET): New details are rolling in about the Bartiromo situation - as the anchor is denying reports that she was fired from the station. According to The Hollywood Reporter:  Bartiromo, who is now repped by Bryan Freedman, who recently repped Justin Baldoni, as well as journalists Don Lemon and Chris Cuomo after their dramatic exits from CNN as well as Tucker Carlson’s exit from Fox, denies that she was fired and further claims that she is “still employed by Fox.” Freedman suggests they may pursue the matter in court.  “For many years, Maria Bartiromo hosted three number-one-rated television shows on Fox channels. She has been, without question,  one of the hardest-working journalists throughout her award-winning career,” Freedman said in a statement to The Hollywood Reporter. "The irresponsible reports that have been published stating that Maria Bartiromo was fired or is no longer an employee of Fox are absolutely and unequivocally false. Make no mistake, we have the receipts and witnesses and they will come out whether through the courthouse or otherwise. Those reporting her firing or the incredulous facts supporting that fiction have exhibited a complete and utter reckless disregard for the truth," he continued. * * * Maria Bartiromo was not fired for pushing claims about the 2020 election - she was fired for revealing that Fox had told its own staff not to talk about it. Fox News Media announced on Thursday it had parted ways with the anchor effective immediately after more than twelve years, thanking her for her work and giving no reason.  The guidance at the center of it went out in July, after President Donald Trump used a prime-time address to tie China to the 2020 result. Fox Business management privately instructed senior staff not to lend credibility to the claims, and killed a China-and-2020 story Bartiromo wanted to pursue. The sensitivity stemmed from legal concerns - Fox paid Dominion Voting Systems $787.5 million in 2023 over 2020 election coverage, and Smartmatic's $2.7 billion claim is still outstanding, with Bartiromo named in both. Fox did not catch the leak itself. Puck's Dylan Byers reported that Bartiromo took a screenshot of that guidance and sent it to senior White House officials, which Fox executives learned of after receiving a call from the White House. In a terse statement, Fox News said Bartiromo is no longer with the company, effective immediately and thanked her for her work, while wishing her well in her next chapter. Status's Oliver Darcy, who built his brand at CNN by pushing censorship campaigns against conservative media, was first to report that Bartiromo leaked internal guidance after Fox Business management privately directed senior staff not to lend credibility to claims President Donald Trump made in a July address regarding China's interference in the 2020 election. However, a new report alleges that Bartiromo was in FOX's crosshairs for several reasons beyond the alleged leak. Mediaite reports: According to a source familiar with the matter, sharing the memo about Trump's July comments was "not the only reason" that led to her abrupt defenestration. The source confirmed that it was "a confluence of factors," including Fox's whopping $787.5 million settlement it had to pay to Dominion Voting Systems in 2023 over 2020 election fraud claims Fox had aired, plus another similar lawsuit from Smartmatic "still hanging out there." Bartiromo was among the main on-air personalities cited in these lawsuits and has continued to periodically peddle in election denialism. A Fox News media spokesperson told Mediaite that the move was simply a "business decision" and declined further comment. Comments Kevin O'Leary made on a May 11 episode of Mornings With Maria also factored in, the source said, in which the Shark Tank star accused nonprofit organizations that opposed his data center project in Utah of being secret agents of the Chinese Communist Party. Trump blasted Fox's decision to sever ties with Bartiromo, calling the host a "true warrior." "I can't believe Maria Bartiromo is no longer going to have her great show(s) on FoxNews/Business. Three different shows, always number one," the president wrote on Truth Social. "Maria is a total professional, and a true warrior. Her fans, of which there are many, will not be happy. God bless you, Maria!" Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 11:30

— Tesla's Cybercab Debut Falls Flat As NHTSA Opens Probe

 

at 9/4/26 9:15am

Tesla's Cybercab Debut Falls Flat As NHTSA Opens Probe Tesla’s long awaited Cybercab finally hit the streets of Austin yesterday, and the debut was something of a dud. For a product Elon Musk has positioned as central to Tesla’s future, the rollout was remarkably subdued. There was no major public livestream with appearance by Musk or traditional press presence, relatively little new information and just 45 Cybercabs registered in Texas as of Thursday. After years of hype surrounding Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions, the event still felt more like a limited demonstration than the beginning of a transportation revolution. Now federal regulators have thrown a wet blanket over even that modest celebration. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a review of the Cybercab to determine whether its unusual design complies with federal safety rules, according to the Wall Street Journal.  The two seat vehicle has no steering wheel, pedals or conventional mirrors, putting it outside many of the assumptions baked into decades old automotive regulations. Tesla says the Cybercab meets all applicable federal standards. NHTSA now wants to inspect the technical data and certification process behind that claim, including Tesla’s determination that certain requirements may not apply to a purpose built autonomous vehicle. The U.S. generally allows automakers to certify their own vehicles rather than obtaining federal approval before production. NHTSA can then challenge those certifications after vehicles reach public roads, which is essentially what is happening here. There is also precedent. Regulators previously challenged Amazon owned Zoox after it certified a robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals. Zoox eventually received an exemption allowing commercial operation under certain restrictions. Tesla has not applied for a similar exemption. Tesla has installed capacity to produce more than 125,000 Cybercabs annually and eventually hopes to sell them for less than $30,000. Musk has increasingly tied Tesla’s valuation and future to autonomous transportation rather than simply selling electric cars. NHTSA could ultimately conclude Tesla has done everything correctly. But if regulators disagree, the Cybercab could face required modifications, recalls or additional regulatory hurdles. Either way, the probe makes an already underwhelming debut even more awkward. Tesla finally got the Cybercab onto public roads after years of promises, only for Washington to immediately start asking whether it should be there in its current form. Tesla shares are down over 6% this morning (having rolled over at the July highs)... Analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research put out a note to clients Friday morning that said: "Morgan Stanley set the bar at 25 to 50 Cybercabs on the road, and visibility around pricing, the ability to purchase, and federal exemptions… for the Cybercab event to be a “success”." He continued: "Tesla delivered 45 registrations, would not say how many were in service, skipped the livestream, kept Musk off the stage, and left the event with no price, no per-mile economics, no purchase button, and no federal exemption on file for a vehicle that legally needs one. When a company stages a launch and then declines to answer the only questions the bulls said mattered, the honest read is not that the story is early — it's that there wasn't one to tell." Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 11:15

— Watch: Lindsay Clancy's Lawyer Melts Down, Calls Judge 'Soft' For Letting Holdout Juror Remain

 

at 9/4/26 8:55am

Watch: Lindsay Clancy's Lawyer Melts Down, Calls Judge 'Soft' For Letting Holdout Juror Remain Lindsay Clancy's defense team is absolutely melting down after Judge William Sullivan refused to remove a holdout juror in Clancy's triple-murder trial, in which the jury must decide whether Clancy is criminally responsible for strangling her three children, Cora, 5; Dawson, 3; and Callan, 8 months. Her defense claims that she was suffering from hallucinations amid postpartum psychosis. The prosecution claims she was not in psychosis when she sent her husband out of the house on long errands, before she murdered her children and then tried to make it appear as though she attempted suicide.  Reuters On Thursday, the jury foreperson sent a note indicating one juror was refusing to apply the judge’s instructions on reasonable doubt. Judge William Sullivan questioned each juror individually at sidebar, then gave the full panel what defense attorney Kevin Reddington later called a "soft" reminder of the law and sent them back to deliberate. "They’ve said at this point that they can," Sullivan said. "That was specifically addressed towards the specific question, and that’s what I’m doing." Reddington demanded that the holdout to be removed, and requested a more pointed inquiry - which Sullivan declined.  JUST IN: Lindsay Clancy stares at the jury as Judge William Sullivan sends them home for the day. The moment came shortly after Clancy's attorney, Kevin Reddington, fumed and called on Sullivan to remove one of the jurors. https://t.co/r7g6JPmXyM pic.twitter.com/32z5efMIKP — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 3, 2026 According to Clancy's defense team, the holdout juror is a man.  "Clearly, we have a person who, under their oath, stood in front of you yesterday … under oath looked you in the eye and lied," said Reddington. "That juror told you that he would be able to apply the law to the facts as you asked him." Reuters When court resumed Friday, Reddington hammered Sullivan, arguing that the prior instruction was inadequate, and pressed again for removal or further questioning of the juror (whom he accused of having lied under oath). Sullivan refused additional inquiry, stating he had considered the issue at length and would not remove the juror. Redding responded by calling Sullivan 'soft' - to which Sullivan replied: "What do you want me to do?! Get a brass band? I read the instruction as written by the Massachusetts Supreme Court. The fact I perhaps did not give it my full inflection, I'm sorry about that, I'm not an actor - I'm giving instruction. ? BREAKING: Lindsay Clancy's defense attorney is MELTING DOWN in court and DIRECTLY SPARRING with the judge, calling the judge "SOFT" DEFENSE: Stop being soft with jury instructions! JUDGE: What do you want me to do?! Get a BRASS BAND?! I read the instruction as written by the… pic.twitter.com/dijDZAdqzG — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 4, 2026 No More Sidebars! Following the spat, Clancy's defense team filed a motion to Sullivan asking that there be no more sidebars for the remainder of the trial - and that all further proceedings be handled in open court. The prosecution, meanwhile, suggested that there be no further questioning of the jury, and asked that Sullivan send them to continue deliberations, arguing that the holdout juror has "no indication of lack of impartiality or bias or extraneous influence, and no indication of inability to deliberate." Reddington disagreed - arguing that the juror appears to have a personal issue getting in the way of him being able to deliberate fairly, and demanded that he be replaced with an alternate.  According to Massachusetts law, a judge can only send a jury back for deliberations twice before declaring a mistrial - which looks like where we're headed. //-- //-- //-- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? Yes 9% · No 92%View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:55

— World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Cuts Treasury Holdings... But It's Not What You Think

 

at 9/4/26 8:40am

World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Cuts Treasury Holdings... But It's Not What You Think The headlines are running rampant this morning as the world's largest (and most transparent) sovereign wealth fund - Norway's Government Pension Fund - has proposed reducing the amount of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion portfolio to boost holdings of riskier debt, with US Treasuries the most affected. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the fund, said in a letter sent to the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday and published on its website, that government debt should be cut to 50% of the bond holdings from 70%. As Bloomberg reports: With about 30% invested in bonds, the fund had more than $615 billion of fixed-income assets in its portfolio as of June 30, about 59.5% of which were invested in government bonds, according to the latest figures on its website. Adding in government-related bonds, the allocation is 69%. The proposed reduction in government bonds’ share to 50% would imply a decrease of about $58 billion of such bonds, according to Bloomberg calculations. While the proposed change implies holdings of US Treasuries would drop by $75 billion, those of Japanese government bonds could increase by $20 billion, Bloomberg analysis shows. Holdings of euro area government bonds are also projected to decrease. With growing concerns about global government debt levels and rekindled inflation fears due to the Middle East conflict having fueled a recent global bond selloff (pushing yields to multiyear highs around the world), the headlines write themselves... "PANIC!!!". But... They are not shrinking US or dollar exposure in any meaningful way. The same letter says US non-government fixed income (IG corporates, agency MBS, government-related debt) would rise from 16.2% to 27.6% of the bond index. Dollar weight in the bond benchmark barely moves: 52.9% → 52.5%. They also want to switch the remaining government bonds from GDP weights to market-value weights, which lifts JGBs (4.6% → 7.4%) and trims euro-area govvies a bit; UK gilts stay put. Additionally, Agency MBS are explicitly part of the pitch: high liquidity, credit quality close to Treasuries because of Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie backing, plus a prepayment/credit premium the fund’s long horizon can harvest. So the giant fund is reducing duration (while adding yield) as MBS duration is considerably lower due to prepayment risk while maintaining its USD exposure... kinda ruining the terrifying headlines. “NBIM isn’t making a direct call on US fiscal sustainability,” said Kenneth Crompton, head of rates strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. “They’re arguing that they already own enough government bonds to satisfy liquidity needs, and that a long-horizon investor should harvest a broader set of fixed income risk premia.” However, Mohamed El-Erian’s take is probably the right one: the dollars are modest; the signal that a canonical long-term official holder is structurally less hungry for duration at the sovereign level is what matters. “The size isn’t big, but the signal that traditional holders and buyers are becoming less reliable is a very important one.” Finally, we do note that this remains a proposal. NBIM follows a benchmark index set by the Finance Ministry, with major allocation changes to its investment mandate requiring approval in parliament, so there’s no guarantee the fund will be allowed to make the change. State Secretary Ellen Reitan said the government will “address any proposals for adjustments to the investment strategy in the white paper on the fund, which will be presented to the parliament in the spring” after the Finance Ministry “will thoroughly review the recommendations,” in an emailed comment. So, with all that in mind - and while we are not used to being the calm kids in the theater when everyone is yelling 'fire' - Norway's fund proposal is more portfolio engineering than a geopolitical "dump America" move (for now)... Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:40

— Putin Says There's A Chance Of Ukraine Peace Deal, Wants To Restore Full US Relations

 

at 9/4/26 8:30am

Putin Says There's A Chance Of Ukraine Peace Deal, Wants To Restore Full US Relations Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept. 3 that there was "a chance" of achieving peace with Ukraine and expressed a desire to rekindle relations with the United States. Putin was speaking at a session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok when he made the comments. On the subject of Ukraine, the Russian president said Moscow was "grateful to everyone who is trying to contribute to resolving this issue," and he said that in his opinion there is "a chance" of peace, according to Russian state news agency TASS. He said that for hostilities to end between Moscow and Kyiv, "Russia and Ukraine must first reach an agreement" between themselves, and he acknowledged that "all other countries are ready to support and assist" in achieving that. The Russian leader also revealed that contact between Moscow and Kyiv was ongoing via the two nations' intelligence services, but he said that it was difficult for him to say "to what extent these contacts are leading to a peace agreement." Regarding Russo - American relations, Putin confirmed that Moscow was still in contact with Washington and said he hoped that such contact would continue. Alluding to the recent trip by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow for meetings on Aug. 25, the Russian president said that everyone was aware of the cooperation between American and Russian intelligence agencies and administration officials appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump. He said that the collaboration was "working" and expressed a hope that it will "ultimately lead to a positive outcome." He further stated, "[Moscow is] in favor of restoring relations with the United States in full, but this does not depend solely on us; it depends on the American side." However, he stressed that he believed that Trump is "determined to engage in such positive, constructive work." On Aug. 26, Trump confirmed Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow for meetings on Aug. 25. The president, however, dismissed all rumors about the purpose of Ratcliffe's trip, denying that he was sent to warn the Kremlin against testing NATO's resolve, striking England, or disregarding Iranian sanctions. "John Ratcliffe is a fantastic guy. He's the head of the CIA, and he is not in there for any of the things that you said. Now, something may come out, you know, out of it. We're working very hard to get that war ended, and frankly, they both want to see it ended at this point," Trump said. On the topic of meeting with Putin, Trump said on Sept. 2 that such an occasion would occur only after peace was achieved between Moscow and Kyiv. "We'd do it if I wanted it, but I want to do it when we're ready to do a peace deal," he told reporters in the Oval Office. He said that the United States wanted to have good relations with both warring parties, saying it would be "great for business." "They ought to stop that stupid war," he said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his country wanted peace but wouldn't surrender, in an Aug. 24 speech in Kyiv marking Ukraine's Independence Day. On Sept. 1, Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports "every step toward peace," in a post on X. "The war needs to end, and leaders are right to tell Putin this. So, for the sake of diplomacy and negotiations, whenever our partners approach us about this, we will ensure that Russian skies are cleared of drones for specified periods of time and along specified routes," he said. "Safety will return to Russia's skies when there is real movement toward peace. For now, the skies over Russia are for drones - not for civilian aviation." Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:30

— The Rush To Pull Gold Out Of The US

 

at 9/4/26 8:20am

The Rush To Pull Gold Out Of The US Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance It was reported yesterday that the Netherlands just shifted approximately 86 tonnes of its gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London, explicitly citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and the need to prepare for severe crises. The Dutch central bank says gold held in London can be accessed and traded more quickly during an emergency than gold stored in New York or Canada. That is some wonderfully sanitized central-bank language to deliver a message that seems to me to be “confidence in the U.S. holding the world’s gold…and likely being a cornerstone of the global economic machine…is dwindling.” Either way, it means the Netherlands has effectively decided that if the world goes sideways, it would prefer substantially less of its ultimate crisis reserve sitting in North America. Before the move, 31.3% of Dutch gold was in New York, 19.7% in Ottawa and 18.1% in London. Now New York and Ottawa each hold 18.5%, while London has jumped to 32.1%. The Netherlands owns 612.4 tonnes of gold altogether. Technically, all 86 tonnes weren’t loaded onto planes and flown across the Atlantic. DNB sold roughly 59 tonnes in New York and bought equivalent market-standard gold in London. More than 27 tonnes were physically moved from the U.S. and Canada to the Netherlands, while a similar quantity moved from the Netherlands to London. The distinction matters operationally. Economically, not so much. The result is fewer Dutch reserves in New York and considerably more in London. And we’ve seen this before. In 2014, the Netherlands physically brought 122.5 tonnes home from New York. Germany later completed the relocation of 300 tonnes from New York to Frankfurt. And between July 2025 and January 2026, France eliminated its remaining New York gold position, replacing 129 tonnes held there with market-standard bars now stored in Paris. France says that decision was about trading efficiency, not politics, which is fair enough. The bars nevertheless wound up in Paris instead of New York. India has also dramatically reduced the portion of its gold stored overseas, although most of that repatriation involved gold held in London rather than America. This seems to be me to be a very obvious trend toward central banks wanting greater control over the one reserve asset that is nobody else’s liability. Gold doesn’t require Washington to pay you back. Funny how attractive that feature becomes when Washington owes more than $40 trillion. As I have droned on about for a decade, the entire modern financial system is ultimately held together by confidence and fiat. The dollar works because everyone believes everyone else will continue accepting dollars. Treasuries work because the world believes the United States will honor its debts without destroying the purchasing power of the currency used to repay them. Confidence…not basic math or economics…is what encourages people like Paul Krugman to say things like “debt is money we owe to ourselves”. It’s what allows Stephanie Kelton to write a book called “The Deficit Myth”. For decades, that confidence allowed America to enjoy the greatest financing arrangement imaginable: running up a tab with no worries about paying it back, while we turn into entitled chickenshit cowards about equity markets because we feel like the Fed can, and always will, bail us out at the very first sign of trouble. But there are little cracks appearing everywhere. The dollar still dominates global reserves, so claims that it is about to disappear are nonsense. It represented 57.13% of disclosed foreign-exchange reserves in Q1 2026. But that’s down substantially from levels above 70% around the turn of the century. Meanwhile, central banks can’t seem to get enough of the barbarous relic. They bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 after three consecutive years of purchases above 1,000 tonnes. The World Gold Council’s 2026 survey found 89% of reserve managers expect global central-bank gold holdings to increase over the coming year, while a record 45% expect their own institution to buy more. Apparently nobody told the world’s central bankers that gold is just a shiny rock. Also, as I’ve constantly talked about here with my friend Andy Schectman, something unusual has also happened at COMEX. DBS data show roughly 289,000 gold delivery notices during the first nine months of 2025, versus approximately 119,000 during the same period of 2024…about 2.4 times as many. A delivery notice transfers title to deliverable metal; it doesn’t necessarily mean somebody immediately backs a Brinks truck up to the warehouse. But it is another indication of heightened demand for physical settlement. Gold is moving. Central banks are buying it. Countries are repositioning it. And increasingly, they want to know exactly where it is and how quickly they can get their hands on it. All of which would be merely interesting if America’s fiscal situation weren’t simultaneously becoming absurd. U.S. federal debt has now crossed $40 trillion, while some Treasury yields have reached their highest levels in nearly two decades. For some reason, it feels like 6% on the 10 year Treasury is looming closely…. The global bond selloff reflects several forces: inflation, huge government borrowing requirements, geopolitical pressures and expectations for interest rates. So it would be too simplistic to blame rising yields entirely on declining confidence in America. But the bond market is sending Washington a message nonetheless: Money isn’t free anymore and something is horribly wrong with the status quo. And that creates the problem I have been writing about for years. At $40 trillion of debt, higher interest rates produce higher interest expense. Higher interest expense produces larger deficits. Larger deficits require more borrowing. More borrowing creates more Treasury supply. And eventually investors demand still-higher yields to absorb it. It’s a fiscal snake eating its own tail, except the snake has a Bloomberg terminal and an Excel spreadsheet that allows it to temporarily fu*k with the numbers. There are only so many ways out. Washington could slash spending, dramatically raise taxes or…as Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested this week, somehow grow its way out of the problem. I’ll pause for laughter. But my longstanding view is that eventually Washington chooses another solution: yield curve control. ? 85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off forever We’ve done it before. Beginning in 1942, the Federal Reserve pegged Treasury bill rates at 0.375% and effectively capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5%. Maintaining those rates required the Fed to buy government securities whenever necessary. Federal Reserve historians explicitly note that the policy forced the Fed to surrender control over the size of its balance sheet and money supply. That is the endgame I continue to worry about. If the free market eventually demands 6%, 7% or 8% to finance America’s debt and Washington decides those rates are economically or fiscally intolerable, somebody has to buy the bonds at lower yields. That somebody is the Federal Reserve. Call it yield curve control. Call it QE. Call it an “emergency market functioning facility” if you’d like to make it sound sufficiently boring for financial TV. It amounts to the same basic choice: suppress the cost of financing the debt and let the currency absorb some of the consequences. And that is why these seemingly obscure gold stories matter. The Netherlands isn’t abandoning America. France isn’t declaring war on the dollar. Germany didn’t empty the New York Fed because it expected the apocalypse. Something subtler is happening. Central banks are buying enormous quantities of an asset with no counterparty risk while increasingly emphasizing physical control, accessibility and geographic diversification. At the same time, America’s debt has crossed $40 trillion and the bond market is demanding increasingly expensive compensation to finance governments around the world. The monetary system is a confidence game. This is why I focus my efforts on highlighting potential areas of the market that cannot be printed and can sidestep, or benefit, from inflation. So when another American ally decides that, for the next crisis, it would prefer substantially less of its gold sitting in New York, I pay attention. They can call it diversification, crisis preparedness, or improved tradability. These assholes in charge always have a wonderful vocabulary for avoiding the obvious. I just call it as I see it: taking chips of the table as you lose confidence in the U.S. financial system. -- QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning, meaning if I’m long I could sell or if I’m short I could cover at any time. Contributor posts and curated posts have been hand selected by me, but have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any or all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional, which I am not. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things I’m bearish on. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. Also as of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade as much as I once did (read my story here). My eventual goal is for investing/saving to be mostly done by recurring contributions, mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets. Again. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Many times I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, again I just straight up get sh*t wrong a lot. I mention it multiple times because it’s that important you understand. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:20

— Rabobank: "The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists"

 

at 9/4/26 7:40am

Rabobank: "The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists" Via Rabobank, As we move towards the end of another trading week, most action was again dominated by the now ubiquitous market bugbear of geopolitics. Central banks are trying to reassert themselves, but under that shadow, and as everything they understand starts to fall apart around them. Putin suggested he’s open to peace vs. Ukraine. That would be wonderful. It would also be remarkable given everything we have seen to date and the rumours we hear of imminent escalation – unless the peace is on his terms, of course. Notably, the Ukrainian press says another hard winter looms, which the government is not prepared for, and so does a possible new Russian northern front towards Kyiv. Trump considered declaring the Iran war over, again, days after he floated renaming Hormuz the Strait of America. We then got other stories pointing out that the White House thinks it’s better to pause this war until after the November midterms, then ramp things up again, as is our base case. The economic war vs. Iran obviously stays in place the while time. South Korea might send its forces to Hormuz to support the US, becoming the first ally to do so, showing US pressure on Seoul, which had many analysts’ eyes rolling, might achieve a result that could help reduce oil prices. Israel claimed regime change in Tehran is its main goal, which is close to being achieved, and that Hamas and Iran are planning attacks on its citizens globally over next few weeks that it will respond to directly should they occur. That is not to include the substantial risk that these two wars become openly conflated into one larger one on at least two fronts, as open and tacit cooperation between Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China is slowly noticed by a wider circle of Western experts. Even Argentina is rattling its sabre at the UK over the Falklands again, a claim the US may support if the British refuse to lead on NATO defence spending according to some – as the current UK is incapable of projecting a naval task force to the South Atlantic like it did back in 1982, speaking to a general western decline. It’s not for nothing that oil, while off yesterday’s peak, is likely to close the week with its largest weekly gain since July, as crack spreads remain staggeringly high and stocks of refined products such as diesel are staggering low. That is a structurally inflationary backdrop because refined products go into or into moving everything. It can only stop being structural if we know both wars are going to end; or that new refineries are going to be magically built years ahead of schedule; or that demand for everything is going to decline due to high prices, which is stagflationary. Neither of the first two are true, and the latter will have huge political consequences. From a geopolitical perspective, you can make peace on your opponent’s terms --but neither Ukraine with its drones nor Israel with its nukes will sign-- to bring oil down; or you can arm up to bring them and it down. Central banks are secondary to that dynamic except where they act on ‘second round effects’ or help on the peace or ‘arm up’ fronts. Markets can cheer another Fed speech from Waller that suggests that maybe rates don’t have to go up this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will. Markets can watch as JPY swings on heavy intervention again ahead of the BOJ almost certainly raising rates this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will. On which note, the BOJ looks like it’s being leaned on by Bessent to hike, who also wants to ensure JPY rises to stabilise US markets. Also watch the reported 155 level in JPY, beyond which we could see accumulated shorts unwound, pushing the currency even further. Indeed, when things unwind it’s a “slowly at first then all at once” non-linear process – and not just in markets, even if they then have to try and price for them. The Australian financial press just ran an op-ed calling for negative immigration, not lower net immigration, which would have been as unthinkable a few years ago as a collapsing housing market against which the RBA is likely to have to hike again. The same is happening in the US to some degree and various parties on the right in Europe are also talking about the same. Were it to occur, many political norms and economic assumptions built over the past few decades stop working. As VW sheds 50,000 jobs and closes plants, the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) argued the neo-mercantilist global backdrop leaves Europe vulnerable. It narrows EU options to: “international co-ordination”, i.e., a Plaza Accord for China; “strategic symmetry” to mirror China, requiring “the ECB to depart from its current policy of a freely floating exchange rate”; or “stronger trade defence measures”, i.e., tariffs, and maybe taxing capital inflows. It notes: “Clearly there is no easy pathway…This reflects the fundamental tension at the heart of this debate: the desire to maintain the international multilateral trade framework that has brought a great deal to Europe and to the world… At the same time, the issue of growing trade imbalances cannot be resolved within that framework, because it lacks the appropriate instruments.” It concludes four things, three of which are: Industrial policy is important, but by itself not enough to tackle strategic dependencies. Formulate a strategy that addresses both trade imbalances and innovation. Doing nothing also comes at a high price. Therefore, to address trade imbalances, all options need to be on the table, even if they are painful. Europe is lagging behind when it comes to applying and scaling up technological innovations. Commit to a coherent European innovation system. OpenAI claims it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model, which is says could be considered to be “Artificial General Intelligence” or AGI. Is this marketing hype, or have we just had a true Manhattan Project moment that transforms everything? Who knows. But would you like to guess where equities, rates, FX, and commodities should sit if the US just developed a true AGI that can now improve itself at a non-linear rate? Now do it assuming we have two major, conflating, wars going on. In the US, Democrats refused to support a constitutional amendment to keep the Supreme Court capped at nine justices, as the Democratic Socialist Alliance refused to back populist Democrat AOC as a 2028 presidential candidate because she is ‘too mainstream.’ The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to rule on the White House’s new executive order on mail-in voting, which could have a major impact on both the midterms and all subsequent US elections.   The fourth WRR conclusion I held back to the end was this: “The world as we knew it no longer exists. Dare to think outside existing frameworks.” Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 09:40

— Bessent Announces EU 'Officially Joined' Operation Economic Outcast Against Iran

 

at 9/4/26 7:25am

Bessent Announces EU 'Officially Joined' Operation Economic Outcast Against Iran US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on X Friday that the EU has "officially joined" Operation Economic Outcast, the sweeping US sanctions campaign to cut Iran out of the international banking system and completely isolate it from the global economy. "The European Union has officially joined Operation Economic Outcast and we appreciate their strong and early stance," Bessent wrote; however, the European Commission seemed to actually reveal no change in the bloc's measures. The European Union has officially joined Operation Economic Outcast and we appreciate their strong and early stance. The United States stands firm with our allies in ensuring the murderous Iranian regime cannot exploit the global financial system to fund its nuclear ambitions,… — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 3, 2026 "The world is sending a clear message to the Iranian regime: We will not stop until every remaining financial lifeline has been severed," he added. The EU statement cited by Bessent was published a few days ago when G20 finance ministers and central bank governors opened meetings in Asheville, North Carolina - coming off his prior 'Economic D-Day' announcement against Iran. The statement in question seems to stop short of Brussels' real and full commitment, but is a mere endorsement. The bloc lays out that it "welcomes efforts at ensuring that Iran ceases its destabilizing activities and engages in peace negotiations with good faith, also through additional economic pressure, including through the US-led Operation Economic Outcast." It seems to also back Europe's existing measures, as it further states the EU "remains ready to take further measures, where necessary," and pledges to "continue to work closely with the United States and other G7 and international partners to maintain pressure on Iran." But from there the statement diverges from Bessent, saying the bloc "believes continued diplomatic efforts are necessary to reach a peace settlement, restore regional stability and ensure full freedom of navigation and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz." Al Jazeera is among those outlets expressing skepticism at Bessent's claim: On Thursday evening, Bessent thanked the EU for joining the economic campaign, saying that the world was “sending a clear message to Iran”. However, the statement from the EU doesn’t clearly say that, but does state that the bloc remains “ready to take further measures, where necessary, to safeguard its security and interests”. The White House has been signaling that it at this point has little hope of revived direct talks between Tehran and Washington, and nothing much on the negotiating from has been reported for several days, especially after this week's flare-up in fighting. Officials continue to underscore that sanctions and the blockade are really beginning to 'bite' - in a familiar refrain and talking point that was already being echoed for months. But new reporting claims Iranian officials themselves are increasingly conceding this. According to Reuters: A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran's economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said. Washington has in recent weeks ​sought to ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran, in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that six months of conflict have so far failed to secure It should be noted that many of the mainstream media's predictions based on the usual "anonymous sources say..." - especially forecasts that include timelines - have fallen completely flat time and again throughout the war: Meanwhile, the country's financial squeeze is itself biting into Tehran's efforts to get around the sanctions regime, leaving less cash to pay the high premiums required to skirt sanctions illicitly, the sources said. The rial has fallen to record lows over recent days and one senior source said Iran only has another two months' supply of gasoline, which has to be imported despite domestic oil production because of limited refining capacity. Also, Vance says don't call it a "war"... Q: When will this war be over? Vance: Well, I don't.... I wouldn't call it a war. pic.twitter.com/75xffTPJPk — Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) September 3, 2026 But leadership in Tehran has been touting that it is ready to face down and endure a long war on all fronts. The Associated Press recently reported, "After six months of war, Iran’s leadership has coalesced around a hard core of military generals and clerics long entrenched in the ruling theocracy. They are ready for a potentially long confrontation with the U.S. and determined to prevent any unrest at home." Meanwhile, Tehran is publicly sparring with Jordan, in the wake of the latest Iranian ballistic missile launches on key US bases in the Arab country. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi had accused Iran of acting with 'pre-meditation' - batting down its assertion of necessary 'retaliation' against US assets. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi then blasted Safadi and the Jordanian government, writing on X, according to a translation: "How much time does the Jordanian Foreign Minister believe Iran should wait before responding to an aggressor that respects neither Arab sovereignty nor Iranian sovereignty? And is he truly unaware that Arab airspace, lands, and waters were used in the initial American attacks that resulted in the killing of innocent Iranians?" Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 09:25

— GE Vernova Finds Its Footing In Sweden With Studsvik After Loss To Rolls Royce

 

at 9/4/26 5:45am

GE Vernova Finds Its Footing In Sweden With Studsvik After Loss To Rolls Royce Swedish nuclear life-cycle services company, Studsvik AB, announced an agreement with GE Vernova Hitachi (GVH) and Samsung C&T for 1.2 GW of new nuclear energy in Sweden. Project developer Studsvik selected the GVH boiling water reactor design, the BWRX-300, to be constructed by Samsung C&T. The consortium is targeting first-unit operation in the mid-2030s. The project location is still undetermined. It'll be developed at either Studsvik's existing licensed nuclear site in Nyköping, or Målma in Valdemarsvik. This latest project for GE Vernova comes shortly after they lost in a competition with Rolls-Royce to construct reactors for Swedish state-owned utility Vattenfall. But, GE Vernova has been working with Studsvik’s wholly-owned reactor development subsidiary for several years, making this less of a surprise and more of a confirmation of previous expectations. Rolls-Royce SMR selected to deliver Sweden’s first new nuclear power for over 40 years https://t.co/IakhRoHKVR pic.twitter.com/eSZmMdSPWX — Rolls-Royce Press (@RollsRoycePress) June 15, 2026 The new project for GE Vernova is notable though for being one less reactor than they were competing against Rolls-Royce for earlier this year. The project to be developed at Nyköping or Målma will be for four BWRX300s instead of the potential five they would have built at the Värö Peninsula. The reactor developer Studsvik is probably new to most of our readers, as the company only sees meaningful volume on its home exchange in Stockholm. The company has been in the nuclear industry for over 75 years, with services over a range of engineering-related business segments, to include fuel modeling software used across the commercial US nuclear fleet. The company only recently entered the reactor development space after they acquired Kärnfull Next earlier this year, leading to their relationship with GVH and Samsung. With the market cap under $200 million and revenue coming in under $100 million in 2025, the company has gone relatively unnoticed over the recent year. We covered them earlier this year when they acquired KNXT, but investors are still largely uninterested in one of the few plays on the Swedish nuclear renaissance story. After jumping almost 200% from mid-2025 to the beginning of 2026, the stock has pulled back with the rest of the global nuclear and AI trade.   Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 07:45

As of 9/4/26 2:19pm. Last new 9/4/26 2:19pm.