Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Watch: Trump Plays 'Kill The Boer' Clip In Front Of South Africa's Ramaphosa In The Oval Office, Destroys NBC Reporter

 

at 5/21/25 11:05am

Watch: Trump Plays 'Kill The Boer' Clip In Front Of South Africa's Ramaphosa In The Oval Office, Destroys NBC Reporter Update (1300ET): Well, for those who were anticipating a Vance-Zelensky shitshow redux at today's meeting between US President Trump and South African President Ramaphosa... they were not disappointed. As the topic of white genocide cam up, Ramaphosa was quick to dispel the 'conspiracy'; but Trump very quickly told his aides to 'roll the tape' at which videos of black leaders in South Africa calling for the murder of whites (Boers) along with video of burial sites for whites killed in South Africa. Crushing. This is not only painful for the South African President but also for our mainstream media that desperately wants to cover up black-on-white violence in South Africa pic.twitter.com/e5NGJXmOb3 — Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) May 21, 2025 As the chants of 'kill the Boer' rang around The Oval Office, Ramaphosa grew very uncomfortable: Donald Trump playing video footage of South Africa’s black party singing “kill the Boer (Whites), kill the White farmer" in front of the South African president in the Oval Office. South African president is very uncomfortable. pic.twitter.com/gTe0MqV2Q8 — Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) May 21, 2025 Ramaphosa, thoughtfully and quietly responded claiming that "this is not government policy," adding that "our democracy allows for free expression" and reaffirmed that "our government is completely against" what President Trump was describing. As the clip (of burial sites and 100,000 people chanting for death to whites) ended and Trump turned to the reporter pool, NBC News reporter Peter Alexander shouted a question about the Qatari jet being offered to the US DoD, at which Trump exploded... WATCH: President Trump unloaded on NBC News correspondent Peter Alexander after a question about a Qatari jet that is expected to be given to the U.S. to be used as a new Air Force One. pic.twitter.com/Z2mSSLa8wC — The Hill (@thehill) May 21, 2025 Ramaphosa diplomatically urged Trump to take this discussion offline. Developing... *  *  * Elon Musk will join President Donald Trump’s meeting with South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House later today. The Pretoria-born billionaire has been a staunch critic of Ramaphosa’s government amid the ongoing claims of genocide against the White minority in the nation of his birth. The timing of Ramaphosa's visit - just days after Trump accepted dozens of Afrikaner refugees - has sparked fears of an Oval Office clash reminiscent of the one Ukrainian president Zelensky faced earlier this year. Trump will be joined by Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, among others. South Africa’s government plans to offer Musk a workaround of local Black-ownership laws for his Starlink internet service to operate in the country, aiming to ease tensions with both the billionaire and Trump, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Ramaphosa's office said the White House meeting, set to begin at 11:30 a.m. ET, will offer a "platform to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries." WATCH LIVE: President Trump welcomed South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to the White House, as tension between the two nations has ramped up since Trump returned to the Oval Office. https://t.co/epZqiTaTvM — The Hill (@thehill) May 21, 2025 *  *  * As Brandon Smith detailed earlier via Alt-Market.us, some people might be wondering why a backwater nation like South Africa has become a flash point in the global debate over politics and culture. It’s really not that hard to understand once you recognize the core conflict, which is in part about racial division but also about the fundamental evils of the political left and socialism. South Africa represents a perfect petri dish, a window into the minds of progressive authoritarians. The country is near the end point of the natural socialist evolution – From “hopeful humanist endeavor” to the communist slave plantation that all socialist adventures inevitably become. A key pillar of leftist authoritarianism is an obsessive desire to prevent people from walking away. In other words, citizens are seen as property of the collective and property of the greater progressive experiment. When citizens try to leave, this is treated as a crime beyond reckoning. It’s a concept I’ve been writing about for many years now. Walking away from from the leftist plantation brings the entire edifice into question; it is the worst thing a citizen can do. Afrikaners that want to immigrate to the US under the refugee program put in place by the Trump Administration are being targeted by a malicious smear campaign. Recently, the SA parliament debated what should be done about these immigrants and also debated how to protect SA’s image in the world stage. Their narrative was broad, but it basically asserts that Afrikaners that talk openly about racial discrimination and race motivated murders of whites might be investigated under treason laws. By extension, Afrikaner refugees seeking to leave SA could be designated as threats to national security. Anyone warning about the growing movement for racial genocide of Afrikaners is a potential traitor and a threat to the country (Go to 118:00 for the discussion). Interestingly, the pursuit of investigations was announced just before South Africa’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile asked white farmers to “please stay”. Meanwhile, socialist and communist party leaders continue to call for a total land grab and reparations, swiping farms from Afrikaners and giving them to black citizens. As is typical with leftist governments the fallback is to deny all claims and evidence, then gaslight and demonize the people that speak out. The Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni made it clear that the State Security Agency (SSA) is on the alert for any disinformation campaigns, foreign meddling and treasonous acts. Concerns over the United States cropped up during the sitting and officials argued that US involvement in relocating refugees was a “violation of South Africa’s sovereignty”. This doesn’t make much sense, unless we keep in mind that Trump cut off foreign subsidies to South Africa because of the Afrikaner issue and this has placed their economy in a precarious position. The SA government seems to think they are entitled to American tax money. They’re not. Those asking Ntshavheni questions during the session used words including “racist” and “right-wing” as well as “lunatics” and “civil war.” The rhetoric is designed to stifle dissent and frighten Afrikaners into apathy. We have seen this same strategy in multiple leftist plantations around the world recently. From the UK to France to Germany and Romania, European governments have used censorship and door-to-door arrests of political opponents and people speaking out on issues like open borders and the invasion of violent third-world immigrants. White citizens are not allowed to criticize migrant polices, or they risk being punished. In the US, conservatives are very familiar with the treason narrative after years of the Biden Administration accusing MAGA of being a “threat to Democracy”. This is nothing new. However, South Africa’s case has escalated beyond persecution. Leftists aren’t just attacking Afrikaners as racists that “want Apartheid back”, they are also desperate to stop whites from leaving. You would think if Afrikaners were so reprehensible the leftists would WANT them to exit the country as quickly as possible. Instead, the establishment has engages in a vicious slander war to shut down their efforts to migrate to the US. A member and candidate of the ruling party (the ANC) wrote this week in the Africa Times: “South Africa’s Asset Forfeiture Unit (AFU) has sweeping powers under the Prevention of Organised Crime Act (POCA Act 121 of 1998) to seize property deemed to be the proceeds of crime. It has been used successfully against corrupt officials, criminal syndicates, and even bogus NGOs. But what of land obtained through historical fraud? Why has the AFU not moved decisively to investigate the origin of property titles, especially where the state was the original grantor or lessee? Let me be blunt: white South Africans should be compelled to demonstrate the lawful origin of title—not just via deeds, but through ethical justice and the question of how the land was first acquired. If such proof fails, that land must revert to the state and be redistributed under constitutional and equitable parameters…” He continues: “Let us not sugar-coat this: when South Africans—whether political parties or private citizens—go to the USA to solicit intervention or publicly declare persecution, they commit an act tantamount to treason.

 They bring shame not only upon the Republic, but spit in the face of those who died so they could vote…” “Where is the legal courage to prosecute this betrayal? The Intelligence Services Act, RICA, and Foreign Interference Bill must be invoked to investigate external political influence masquerading as refugee claims and foreign ‘investment pressure’…” And this showcases the underlying hypocrisy of race communists – The political left wants revenge for Apartheid against people that had nothing to do with Apartheid. They want to steal the land that those white farmers cultivated for generations using legal chicanery. The farmers must then “prove” their ownership was not obtained through racial injustice using a government-run struggle session (guilty until proven innocent). At the same time leftists also assert that white farmers that abandon their lands and leave for the US are traitors. The Afrikaners are trapped, and that’s just the way leftists like it. Social media is rife with woke activists calling Afrikaners racists and cowards for wanting to go to America. Activists in America have threatened violence against white refugees, claiming that they want to “bring Apartheid to the US”. Other critics try to dissuade potential refugees by asserting that when they enter the US they will be “at the bottom” and will not survive in the American economy. I believe that this campaign is at least partially coordinated. Keep in mind that Afrikaners know full well that they will be starting from scratch in the US, and they don’t care. Many of them are leaving behind property and a life they have built over decades. What I find refreshing about these migrants is how different they are in temperament from the millions of illegal migrants we have been dealing with from third world counties. Afrikaners say they want to contribute, to earn their keep in America and to assimilate. This is a completely different attitude from immigrants heralding from central and south America that arrogantly demand welfare subsidies, easy labor access and cry racism when they’re asked to assimilate or learn English. Furthermore, leftists never address the obvious question here – If there is no threat to white Afrikaners and they are actually living the high life without any fear, then why are they willing to leave everything they worked for to come to America? Listen to the deafening sound of crickets… Another question that leftists can’t seem to answer is why they care so much? Why are they so emotionally fragile over Afrikaners leaving for another country? What are they REALLY angry about? The reaction of South African politicians and leftists to this event tells us everything we need to know about their true motives – They hate the Afrikaners, but they also think they own the Afrikaners. They will do anything to prevent their racial equity Utopia from being exposed as a farce. South Africa’s denial of genocide is predicated on a logical fallacy – The idea that not all white people have been attacked or killed, therefore the current situation does not qualify as a genocide. Under Gregory H Stanton’s 10 Stages Of Genocide, written as a kind of alarm meter for impending tragedy, South Africa actually meets 8 out of 10 of the requirements for a genocidal scenario. Nearly all of the pieces are in place, including official group classification, discrimination, dehumanization, preparation and persecution. There’s the open calls to “kill the Boers” (Kill the white farmers) by leftist political parties, government complicity in property theft and redistribution, as well as thousands of racially motivated murders which the SA government has tried to hide, categorizing them as basic crimes rather than racial crimes. The African National Congress has implemented at least 142 race-based laws (similar to DEI policies in the US) designed to redistribute wealth, property and jobs away from the white population into the hands of the black population. And, the progressive authoritarians believe they have the perfect justification for the continuing oppression of whites – Because Apartheid existed 35 years ago in South Africa, this means that any brutality that happens to Afrikaners today is fair game. It’s the same argument that leftists use in Europe and the US: “White westerners were colonizers and colonization is evil, therefore, as repentance for their sins against the multicultural gods, whites must allow their societies to be deconstructed and submit to generations of abuse.” My question is, why would we do that? We can simply organize and tribalize if that’s the intention of the progressive movement. We can easily drop the hammer on them if necessary. The only reason progressives and socialists think they can railroad white citizens in South Africa is because they assume we will sit back and let them. Just so there’s no misunderstanding, everything happening in South Africa is a consequence of progressive governance. The race targeting of whites, the crumbling infrastructure, the 32% unemployment rate, the ongoing civil instability, etc. They’ve had 30 years to make things better and instead they made things worse. Conservatives have no political power and white citizens have no political power (their representation in government is next to nil). One might wonder why the government hasn’t swiped all the farm land from the Afrikaners already? The conundrum for progressive authoritarians is that they want to, but the vast majority of their domestic food production relies on the expertise of white farmers. They remember the starvation crisis that happened when Zimbabwe ethnically cleansed white farmers. They have to get rid of the Afrikaners slowly and replace them with black farmers over a period of years. Utility and political optics require that the SA government keep Afrikaner farmers trapped within the country so they can continue to produce until the government sees fit to eliminate them completely. I believe the “treason” narrative is part of this agenda, along with the general smear campaign. If even a handful of Afrikaners are able to come to the US and succeed this will encourage thousands more to leave SA. The country will then lose a large portion of its most productive citizens. The last vestiges of civil stability will disappear. South Africa will collapse. This is why some officials are begging Afrikaners to stay. This why the government is talking about national security concerns over a mere 59 immigrants leaving for America. Secretly, they know that an eventual mass exodus of white farmers is coming and it will crush their fraudulent system. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 13:05

— Mercenary Firm Set To Oversee Gaza Aid For Israel Goes On LinkedIn Hiring Spree

 

at 5/21/25 10:45am

Mercenary Firm Set To Oversee Gaza Aid For Israel Goes On LinkedIn Hiring Spree Via Middle East Eye The US private military contracting firm set to oversee Gaza aid distribution on Israel's behalf is actively hiring for positions on LinkedIn, according to job postings shared with Middle East Eye by current and former US officials. The firm, Safe Reach Solutions, or SRS, says it is actively looking for "Humanitarian Liaison Officers" who will "serve as vital connectors between our operational teams and the broader humanitarian community," according to one job description. Armed men stand guard at a checkpoint manned by US & Egyptian security at the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza, January 2025. via AFP Another position on offer a week ago but has since closed is for a “Team Deputy/Manager” to support “day-to-day management, planning, and mission execution”. A liaison officer position appears to be analytically focused. It says that hires will “advise on best practices for engaging with affected populations, local authorities, and community-based organizations” while monitoring developments that could impact “operational posture”. The team deputy position is geared towards recruits with a background in operations. One of the requirements is “field experience in the Middle East, especially in conflict-affected or post-crisis settings”. The positions want applicants with at least seven years of experience. They require applicants to be US citizens and say fluency in Arabic is preferred.  Ironically, SRS is seeking people with UN experience, but the plan to take over aid distribution seeks to supplant the United Nations, which is already capable of delivering aid in Gaza. "These mid- to senior-career professionals will help bridge communication, coordination, and trust with NGOs, international agencies, and UN bodies operating in complex environments." Demand for the positions appears to be high. According to LinkedIn, more than 100 people applied for the humanitarian liaison officer position within two weeks. The team deputy position also drew comments from interested users directed to "Ali Ali," SRS’s recruiting consultant. “Hi Ali I worked in Gaza last summer with the US army. I was in charge of the humanitarian aid delivery through the trident pier. Please reach out to me at your best convenience to talk more,” a LinkedIn user wrote. The former Biden administration floated a costly pier project to bring aid into the Gaza Strip last year, but it was widely considered a failure. American private military contractors have already started arriving in Israel, according to photos shared on social media of khaki-clad and bearded men at Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. MEE couldn't independently verify the photos.  Who is Phil Reilly and his firm SRS? MEE couldn’t identify the recruiter, Ali Ali, who has 13 LinkedIn connections and no profile photo. However, SRS is headed by former CIA paramilitary officer Phil Reilly, who has served in Asia, Afghanistan and Iraq.  Two former US officials told MEE that Reilly had won the trust of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several Israeli businessmen close to him. His firm has long been the favourit to secure humanitarian aid into Gaza in a project that one Israeli businessman briefed on the plans said could amount to a contract worth "hundreds of millions of dollars". SRS was one of the private military contractors responsible for securing Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor during a short-lived truce. Fighting in Gaza briefly stopped in January but resumed in March when Israel unilaterally resumed attacking the enclave. According to a January Reuters report, US contractors were paid $1,100 a day to work in Gaza, with a $10,000 advance for veterans. SRS’s work during the first ceasefire was paid for mainly by the US and Gulf states, one US official told MEE. The private military contractors' weapons and supplies are likely to be supplied by the US. One US official told MEE that the salary range exceeds what the former US security firm Blackwater once paid veterans. SRS makes no secret of its connection to Gaza on LinkedIn. It posted a glowing article from ABC News in April, titled, “How a team of 'suburban dads' secured a key checkpoint in Gaza's 'death corridor'". UN says no aid distributed in Gaza SRS stepped up recruitment on LinkedIn just as the US was lobbying the UN and European states earlier in May to approve the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, to oversee aid distribution. The foundation would largely supplant the UN’s role in distributing Gaza aid. It says it plans to be active by the end of May. The SRS's job applications page reveals how Israel and the US are rapidly moving towards privatising and militarizing aid distribution in Gaza. Another position SRS is actively hiring for is an imagery systems technician, who can analyze full-motion video. Israel says it plans to create “hubs” to distribute aid. In the past, it has used checkpoints to separate Palestinian men and women. Earlier this month, the Israeli cabinet approved a plan that would require facial recognition technology to be applied to Palestinians before they receive any aid. It is seeking foreign funding for the plan. This is what the coastal Rashida street in Gaza looked like before and after the ongoing war. pic.twitter.com/yc2lZYa1n7 — Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) November 12, 2023 The operation has been slammed by aid groups across the aisle, and the UN says it will not take part in the foundation’s work. Israel announced on Monday that it would allow some humanitarian aid into the enclave. The UN said on Tuesday that Israel had allowed four trucks with baby food to enter the enclave, and a few dozen other trucks with flour, medicine, and nutrition supplies. However, the UN has not been able to distribute the supplies. "Israeli authorities are requiring us to offload supplies on the Palestinian side of Kerem Shalom crossing and reload them separately once they secure our team's access from inside the Gaza Strip,” UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said. "Today, one of our teams waited several hours for the Israeli green light to access the Kerem Shalom area and collect the nutrition supplies. Unfortunately, they were not able to bring those supplies into our warehouse," he said. Humanitarian experts say Gaza is on the brink of mass starvation. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said on Tuesday that 14,000 babies could die in the next 48 hours if aid did not reach them in time. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 12:45

— US Senate Votes To Move Ahead With GENIUS Act; 'Legitimizing' Stablecoins For Global Institutional Adoption

 

at 5/21/25 10:15am

US Senate Votes To Move Ahead With GENIUS Act; 'Legitimizing' Stablecoins For Global Institutional Adoption The GENIUS Act moved through a procedural vote on Monday (66-32), and has just passed its latest hurdle (69-31) allowing Senate Republican leaders to bring the legislation to the floor for debate and a final vote, as soon as this week A challenging amendment pricess awaits as the Senate bill, if passed, would need to be reconciled with a version approved by the House Financial Services Committee, and then both chambers of Congress must agree on a single bill before sending a final version to President Donald Trump for his signature. "There are still a lot of moving pieces," said Jennifer Schulp, director of financial regulation studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s key backers, said on May 15 that she thinks it’s a “fair target” to have the GENIUS Act passed by May 26 - Memorial Day in the US. *  *  * As CoinTelegraph's Zoltan Vardai detailed ahead of the vote, stablecoin adoption among institutions could surge as the United States Senate prepares to debate a key piece of legislation aimed at regulating the sector. After failing to gain support from key Democrats on May 8, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act passed the US Senate in a 66–32 procedural vote on May 20 and is now heading to a debate on the Senate floor. The bill seeks to set clear rules for stablecoin collateralization and mandate compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws. “This act doesn’t just regulate stablecoins, it legitimizes them,” said Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs and Falcon Finance. “It sets clear rules, and with clarity comes confidence. That’s what institutions have been waiting for,” Grachev told Cointelegraph during the Chain Reaction daily X spaces show on May 20, adding: “Stablecoins aren’t a crypto experiment anymore. They’re a better form of money. Faster, simpler, and more transparent than fiat. It’s only a matter of time before they become the default.” Source: Cointelegraph Senate bill seen as path to unified digital system The GENIUS Act may be the “first step” toward establishing a “unified digital financial system which is borderless, programmable and efficient,” Grachev said, adding: “When the US moves on stablecoin policy, the world watches.” Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, a co-sponsor of the bill, also pointed to Memorial Day as a “fair target” for its potential passage. Grachev said regulatory clarity alone will not drive institutional adoption. Products offering stable and predictable yield will also be necessary. Falcon Finance is currently developing a synthetic yield-bearing dollar product designed for this market, he noted. Yield-bearing stablecoins issuance. Source: Pendle Yield-bearing stablecoins now represent 4.5% of the total stablecoin market after rising to $11 billion in total circulation, Cointelegraph reported on May 21. GENIUS Act regulatory gaps don’t address offshore stablecoin issuers Despite broad support for the GENIUS Act, some critics say the legislation does not go far enough. Vugar Usi Zade, the chief operating officer at Bitget exchange, told Cointelegraph that “the bill doesn’t fully address offshore stablecoin issuers like Tether, which continue to play an outsized role in global liquidity.” He added that US-based issuers will now face “steeper costs,” likely accelerating consolidation across the market and favoring well-resourced players that can meet the new thresholds. Still, Zade acknowledged that the legislation could bring greater “stability” to regulated offerings, depending on how it is ultimately worded and enforced. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 12:15

— Russian Strike On Ukrainian Training Ground Results In Mass Casualties

 

at 5/21/25 10:00am

Russian Strike On Ukrainian Training Ground Results In Mass Casualties Despite ongoing US-backed efforts to get Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table again, days after last week's Istanbul talks, both warring sides have on Wednesday ramped up tit-for-tat assaults on each other's territory. Ukrainian drones have once again threatened the Moscow region, leading to the capital's four airports temporarily suspending nearly all flights for a period on Wednesday. Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports halted inbound and outbound flights, and Sheremetyevo suspended arrivals, the country's Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed, after air defense missile systems downed three inbound drones on Moscow. Russian MOD image: Russian ministry of defense video showed the training ground shortly before the missile strike. "Emergency services are working at the crash sites," an official Moscow city statement said. The Defense Ministry had earlier in the day said it destroyed 159 Ukrainian inbound drones overnight. Drones threatened several regions across southern Russia, as well as at least 40 UAVs spotted over Crimea. Ukraine on Wednesday announced that six of its servicemen were killed, and at least ten more were wounded when a missile attack struck a training camp in northeast Ukraine's Sumy region the day prior. However, Russia's defense ministry said the death toll was much higher, according to its intelligence estimates. It indicated the missile attack "killed up to 70 Ukrainian service members, including 20 instructors." Like many other such mass casualty events of late, it will likely be impossible to confirm which said has the accurate casualty numbers, given 'fog of war' and lack of journalistic access on the ground to many of these sites. The location was reportedly a shooting range, according to Ukraine's national guard, which further said the commander of the unit had been suspended. The strike happened during the light of day. Ukraine's military leadership has in some regions had a ban in place of large gatherings of troops or training which takes place out in the open, given the ever-present danger of missile and drone attacks from Russia. Reuters notes that "During more than three years of Russia's full-scale invasion, Moscow's forces have inflicted casualties in attacks on Ukrainian military educational institutions and various formal outdoor gatherings. This large-scale attack on the training ground comes at a time of increased domestic division and infighting within Ukraine, including apparently within the military command. For example, one high-ranking commander has within the past week reportedly resigned in disgust: Oleksandr Shyrshyn, battalion commander of the 47 Separate Mechanized Brigade, has submitted his resignation, sharply criticizing Ukraine’s military leadership for what he described as senseless orders and unnecessary casualties. "I have never received more stupid objectives than in the current direction," Shyrshyn wrote in a blunt Facebook post announcing his decision on May 16. "Someday I will tell you the details, but the stupid loss of people, trembling in front of a stupid generals, leads to nothing but failures." "I hope your children will also serve in the infantry and carry out your orders," he added. Russia's MoD released a grim video which strongly suggests true casualty numbers are actually very high after the attack: Media disseminate a video of an alleged Iskander missile strike on a Ukrainian military training ground in the Sumy region. They report the deaths of approximately 70 soldiers. This incident once again undermines trust in Ukraine’s military command, which not only organized… pic.twitter.com/9NllPV79Wi — Marta Havryshko (@HavryshkoMarta) May 21, 2025 This is probably why Kiev authorities are taking such pains to investigate the Sumy training ground attack. The Zelensky government is trying to assure the population that it's war policy is not "senseless" - also at a time recruiters continue brutally rounding up fresh recruits, in some instances from off the streets or from inside cafes and restaurants. This war of attrition is becoming increasingly unpopular among Ukrainians, and is certainly being met with 'war weariness' among Western populations, whose tax dollars have been propping up the Ukrainian war machine. This is also why President Trump has been urging both sides to end the "bloodbath" and senseless killing. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 12:00

— Bernie Sanders Says 'Quiet Part Out Loud' In Brutal Backstab Of Democratic Party

 

at 5/21/25 9:25am

Bernie Sanders Says 'Quiet Part Out Loud' In Brutal Backstab Of Democratic Party Via VigilantFox.com, Bernie Sanders just said the quiet part out loud - and Andrew Schulz got it all on tape... In one of his most brutally honest interviews ever, Sanders admitted Democrats ARE a threat to democracy. He even pulled back the curtain on being robbed in 2016 and revealed his thoughts on a 2028 run. By the halfway mark of the 80-minute conversation, Sanders started unleashing truth bombs. He said the Democratic establishment sold out decades ago, trading working-class voters for wealthy donors and out-of-touch consultants. According to Sanders, that’s when everything started to fall apart. “The 70s, 60s, Democrats caught on that you could raise a lot of money from wealthy people,” Sanders explained. “And it gets back to campaign financing and all that stuff. So you got a Democratic establishment now, which is funded by wealthy people. You have consultants who are really way out of touch with reality, who make a whole lot of money in campaigns. And working class is ignored,” Sanders said. He added that Donald Trump succeeded where Democrats fell short because at least he pretended to care about the working class. Bernie Sanders sat down with podcaster Andrew Schulz for a revealing 80-minute conversation—and by the halfway mark, he started unleashing truth bombs. He said the Democratic establishment sold out decades ago, trading working-class voters for wealthy donors and out-of-touch… pic.twitter.com/yHy5fVnDov — The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) May 19, 2025 The conversation pivoted to Kamala Harris’s crushing defeat, where Bernie Sanders got visibly upset. He recalled how Kamala’s “bloody consultants” told her to campaign on: “Hey, everything’s good. We’re going to keep doing the exact same thing.” “That was what her bloody consultants told her to say. I begged them [to go with a different message]!” Sanders lamented. Andrew Schulz challenged Sanders, saying, “Why can’t she [Kamala] push back?”—to which he conceded, “You’re right. There’s no argument.” The conversation pivoted to Kamala Harris’s crushing defeat, where Bernie Sanders got visibly upset. He recalled how Kamala’s “bloody consultants” told her to campaign on: “Hey, everything’s good. We’re going to keep doing the exact same thing.” “That was what her bloody… pic.twitter.com/93ROvtTo19 — The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) May 19, 2025 Then came a jaw-dropper. Sanders was cornered by co-host Akaash Singh, who got him to admit that, YES, Democrats ARE a threat to Democracy. It happened when Schulz brought up how, over the past four election cycles, Democratic voters had little to no real say in who their nominee would be. He flat-out told Sanders that the DNC stole the 2016 primary from him. Sanders didn’t deny it. “In the world that I live in, you got a choice,” he replied—implying it was either let the Democrats rig the process or risk handing the White House to Trump. He even said his wife agrees that the nomination was stolen from him. Still, Sanders stood by the choice to support Hillary, calling both her and Trump “not a great choice”—but Hillary the lesser evil. That’s when Schulz’s co-host Akaash Singh jumped in and asked: “Could we not also say that if there hasn’t been a fair primary for the Democrats since 2008, are they not also a threat to democracy?” Sanders conceded. “Fair enough,” he said. “I’m not going to argue with that point.” Then came a jaw-dropper. Sanders was cornered by co-host Akaash Singh, who got him to admit that, YES, Democrats ARE a threat to Democracy. It happened when Schulz brought up how, over the past four election cycles, Democratic voters had little to no real say in who their… pic.twitter.com/jo0dEEpAr5 — The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) May 19, 2025 Sanders pulled back on the Democratic establishment, detailing how they despise “DIRTY” working-class people without a PhD. He recalled how thousands of energized, working-class supporters would show up to rallies—only to be met with hostility at official party events. Sanders painted the scene: “There’d be a few hundred people, mostly older, whiter, wealthier. And you saw the clash. The establishment did not want to open the door. They hated the idea that all these people whose hands were a little bit dirty, who didn’t have PhDs or weren’t wealthy…” “Imagine walking in—‘It’s my party, man. You ain’t getting in.’ Yes, we will fight you in the most ruthless ways that we can. And that’s the struggle.” He warned that Democrats either open the door—or go down with the Titanic. Sanders pulled back on the Democratic establishment, detailing how they despise “DIRTY” working-class people without a PhD. He recalled how thousands of energized, working-class supporters would show up to rallies—only to be met with hostility at official party events. Sanders… pic.twitter.com/EkVW2yb6m0 — The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) May 19, 2025 It didn’t stop there. Sanders went on to blame the Democratic establishment for destroying his 2016 run with a coordinated smear campaign. When asked who labeled his grassroots supporters as racists and misogynists, Sanders didn’t hesitate: “It was the Democratic establishment.” He admitted that the Democratic establishment worked hand-in-hand with the media to push this “myth” to destroy his campaign. “They were sitting there, we had a lot of young people, we had people of color, and you know, they create this kind of myth, with the help of the corporate media and all that stuff,” Sanders explained. Then it got worse. When Schulz pointed out that the same playbook was used against podcasters in 2024, Sanders agreed without skipping a beat: “Yeah, that’s what the liberal elite tries to do.” It didn’t stop there. Sanders went on to blame the Democratic establishment for destroying his 2016 run with a coordinated smear campaign. When asked who labeled his grassroots supporters as racists and misogynists, Sanders didn’t hesitate: “It was the Democratic establishment.”… pic.twitter.com/TqMB0xLiIN — The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) May 19, 2025 The conversation ended with a surprise. Bernie Sanders officially ruled out a 2028 presidential run, saying, “I think I’ve run my last race.” What came next was another shocker: he refused to endorse AOC. When asked if his “Oligarchy Tour” with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was part of a passing of the baton, Sanders shut it down immediately. “No. Don’t look at it like that,” adding, “It’s not a passing of the baton.” While he praised her efforts, he made his position clear: “I think Alexandria is great, but it’s NOT MY JOB to determine who the new leaders are.” The conversation ended with a surprise. Bernie Sanders officially ruled out a 2028 presidential run, saying, “I think I’ve run my last race.” What came next was another shocker: he refused to endorse AOC. When asked if his “Oligarchy Tour” with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was part… pic.twitter.com/F4Nt31VWlX — The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) May 19, 2025 See the full conversation below. This one is actually worth watching. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 11:25

— Bitcoin Surges To New Record High, 'Trumping' Gold Since Election

 

at 5/21/25 9:10am

Bitcoin Surges To New Record High, 'Trumping' Gold Since Election Bitcoin just surge to a new record high, $109,500, extending its recent post-pause recovery and up over 60% since President Trump was elected... BTC ETF inflows continue to build... ...and we suspect there is more to come, if the recent surge in global liquidity is anything to go by... The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures surged to a record high on May 20, raising questions about whether bearish positions are now at risk. Since Trump's Liberation Day (and now amid the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'), while gold has rallied solidly, Bitcoin appears to have been the preferred position for global uncertainty (after testing down to pre-election levels)... As Bitcoin Magazine's Oscar Zarraga Perez reports, a new report from River reveals that the United States dominates Bitcoin ownership globally, holding about 40% of all available Bitcoin.  With 14.3% of its population owning Bitcoin, the U.S. outpaces Europe, Oceania, and Asia combined. Corporate America also leads in Bitcoin holdings. Thirty-two U.S. public companies, with a combined market cap of $1.26 trillion, hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset. These firms account for 94.8% of all Bitcoin owned by publicly traded companies worldwide. Major holders include Strategy with 569,000 BTC, U.S. mining companies with 96,000 BTC, and others with 68,000 BTC, totaling 733,000 BTC in the U.S., compared to 40,000 BTC held elsewhere. Since China’s ban on Bitcoin mining in 2021, the United States has become the global leader in Bitcoin mining, responsible for 38% of all new Bitcoin mined since then. The U.S. attracts miners thanks to its stable regulatory environment, access to deep and liquid capital markets, and abundant energy resources. These advantages have helped the U.S. increase its share of the global Bitcoin mining hashrate by over 500% since 2020, solidifying its position as the center of the industry. Bitcoin is also emerging as America’s preferred reserve asset, overtaking gold. Over 49.6 million Americans are in favor of holding Bitcoin, compared to 36.7 million who still prefer gold. The US government’s bitcoin advantage is greater than that of gold, where the US accounts for just 29.9% of the world’s central bank gold reserves.  “Because there is a fixed supply of BTC, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a strategic bitcoin reserve,” said the White House on March 7, 2025. Politically, support for Bitcoin is gaining significant momentum across the U.S. government. As of now, 59% of U.S. Senators and 66% of House Representatives openly support pro-Bitcoin policies, signaling a notable shift in political attitudes and greater acceptance of digital assets as key components of America’s economic future. The study highlights that Bitcoin ownership is highest among American males aged 31-35 and 41-45, with ownership rates ranging from 3% to 41% within these age groups.  Politically, those identifying as “very liberal” or “neutral” are more likely to own Bitcoin than conservatives, though conservatives still make up a significant portion of holders. Finally, as we detailed yesterday, global sovereigns have been 'quietly' gathering exposure to the cryptocurrency with StanChart's Geoff Kendrick targeting $500k by the end of Trump's term in office for the largest cryptro currency. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 11:10

— WTI Erases Israel-Iran Spike As Crude & Gasoline Stocks See Unexpected Build

 

at 5/21/25 8:39am

WTI Erases Israel-Iran Spike As Crude & Gasoline Stocks See Unexpected Build Oil prices are modestly higher ahead of this morning's official energy inventory and supply data, but have come dramatically back off the overnight spike highs driven by CNN headlines suggesting Israel is ready to strike Iranian nuclear enriuchment sites. “Either the impact on the oil market in case of an attack is assumed to be low, or the probability for an attack is assumed to be low,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB.  Wednesday’s gain “is not much when we are talking bombs in the Middle East major oil producing region.” Overnight also saw API report another sizable crude inventory build, while products drewdown (again)... API Crude +2.5mm Cushing -443k Gasoline -3.24mm Distillates -1.4mm DOE Crude +1.33mm Cushing -457k Gasoline +816k - biggest build since January Distillates +579k A smaller than expected crude build was offset by an unexpected build in Gasoline stocks according to the official DOE data... Source: Bloomberg Including a 843k barrel addition to SPR, total US crude stocks rose for the second week in a row... Source: Bloomberg US Crude production was up very modestly last week - hovering just below record highs - while the rig count continues to reject Trump's 'Drill, baby, drill' narrative... Source: Bloomberg Geopolitical concerns have for now overshadowed expectations of looser balances heading into the second half of the year, as OPEC and its allies bring back barrels to the market.  Source: Bloomberg US shale oil output hasn’t peaked and can still expand, but not if prices are near $50 a barrel, ConocoPhillips’ chief executive officer said Tuesday. Meanwhile, Trump will not be best pleased if geopolitical tensions raise the price of oil and wreck his inflation-busting drill-baby-drill hopes of declining pump prices for the average American. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 10:39

— Is Japan About To Hike Rates AND Restart Yield Curve Control?

 

at 5/21/25 8:20am

Is Japan About To Hike Rates AND Restart Yield Curve Control? By Elwin de Groot and Michael Every of Rabobank Iran’s Khamenei said nuclear talks with US are unlikely to “lead to any outcome”… as US intel says Israel is preparing for a strike on Iran, seeing oil prices move higher. The Israeli press also says Iranian efforts to recruit Israeli agents have skyrocketed, Tehran trying to arrange high-profile assassinations inside Israel to mirror what Israel can do inside Iran, increasing the pressure further. That’s as President Trump is reportedly frustrated by Gaza war and wants PM Netanyahu to "wrap it up"; and the EU will review its association agreement with Israel, as their officials say diplomatic efforts stopped the EU from already halting the agreement; and the UK suspended trade talks with Jerusalem and attacked its ‘repellent’ extremism. Moreover, US Secretary of State Rubio said of Syria: “It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they’re facing, are maybe weeks —not many months— away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up,” which is justification for the US and EU removing sanctions on it. In short, the entire energy-rich region is in flux. And so is much else. The IMF just asked the US to reduce its fiscal deficit as the Big Beautiful Bill will cut taxes and boost spending much further; and that’s as Reuters says the US ‘is preparing for a long war with China that could hit its bases and homeland’ and Trump is set to launch a "Golden Dome" missile defence system that will cost $175bn and almost certainly won’t be ready within his term of office, as promised. Trump reportedly also wants the UK to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029, so within the current parliament, increasing its fiscal deficit too. Against that backdrop, the downgrade of the US by Moody’s last Friday may have not come as a huge surprise and its debt was already trading “as if” it no longer belonged to the AAA bucket. Still, the re-rating of US debt is having potential effects in corners of the market. Managers of Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund system are flagging they may be forced to sell their Treasury holdings, since the pension fund only allows them to invest more than 10% of their assets in Treasuries if the US has a AAA or equivalent rating from an approved rating agency. Japan’s Rating & Investment Information is the only approved agency left out there having the US at the highest rating level. The rating agency keeps the US’ rating on stable outlook and has indicated that the situation “hasn’t significantly changed” since it made its assessment in February. But other scenarios could obviously play out. The US Congress is moving closer to endorsing Trump tax-cuts, leading to a significant increase in deficits and debt: with the IMF publicly calling for the US to reduce its deficit, such a scenario could lead to a gradual reduction in the share of Treasuries in various investment portfolios. Potentially, so could Trump considering an executive order to open US retirement plans to private equity, which would allow savers to access funds focused on “corporate buyouts and other high-octane deals” - so fewer US Treasuries(?) Meanwhile, whereas European/German long-term yields are trading at levels that are still some 30-40bp lower than in early March --when the EU’s and Germany’s defence and infrastructure spending plans startled markets-- those in the US and Japan are trading close to or even higher than the levels seen in early March. A 20y bond auction in Japan saw the lowest demand since 2012 and this pushed the 30y Japanese yield to its highest level since its 1999 debut. It certainly doesn’t help when your own prime minister acknowledges the country’s fiscal situation is “extremely poor, and worse than Greece’s” – even if their intent is to signal opposition to fresh tax cuts financed by additional debt issuance. Japan’s core inflation rate has come down from its peak levels of nearly 3% y/y in late-2023 to sit at just over 1.5%. That level, however, was only surpassed twice in the past thirty years: in 2014 and 1997. But in both instances the inflation spike was due to significant changes to the VAT system. If Japan has now entered (?) an episode of more ‘normal’ inflation, it could lead to more persistent upward pressures on (real) bond yields, which would raise interest costs. And, like in the US and Europe, the central bank has been dialling down its bond purchases, which, next to weaker demand for bonds, could also be contributing to higher liquidity-risk premiums. Japan’s public debt ratio (214% in 2024) is the highest among developed economies. The BOJ still holds a staggering share (around 50%) of public debt on its balance sheet, but even if the central bank does not slow down its purchases, the ‘net’ amount of debt would still be in the 100%+ range and comparable to that of – indeed – Greece’s, back in 2007. We want to avoid burning our fingers on the Japanese bond market – betting against it is commonly known as the widow-maker trade. But we ponder whether Japan could serve as an example for Europe or even, perhaps, the US – Japan, after all, has been the test case for many unconventional policies in recent (monetary) history. First off, the country may be better placed than both of these peers to tackle bond market turbulence, and the impact of higher yields on governments’ financing costs. Only 12% of JGBs is owned by foreign parties. So, arguably, the government could introduce some form of wealth tax to claw back part of interest payments on its bonds. Note the similarities with the suggestions for a so-called Mar-a-Lago accord, in which the US could try to lessen its debt servicing costs by forcing its allies to term out their debt holdings at a below-market return, or by imposing some form of tax on foreign holders of Treasuries. The major difference is that Japan’s solutions could be less controversial, since domestic tax policies would suffice to achieve the desired outcome. However, such a clawback only gets Japan so far. A wealth tax that offsets the higher debt servicing costs helps to contain the fiscal deficit and debt, but that does not provide the government with additional fiscal space to pursue its strategic goals, such as defence spending or reducing dependence on foreign inputs (note the similarities with the European situation here). Barring monetary support, more substantial tax increases or spending cuts in other areas would be required – and that could quickly erode support for the ruling party. Alternatively, the BOJ could resume its government bond purchases. But this would arguably lead to higher inflation and would probably weaken the currency – at a time when the JPY is already under increased scrutiny of the US administration. Japanese finance minister Kato yesterday said that "[…] exchange rates should be set by markets, and that excessive volatility in currency moves has an adverse economic and financial impact." Weakness in the yen could undermine any trade agreement between the US and Japan. So, to mitigate this impact of quantitative easing, could the BOJ simultaneously raise its policy rates in an attempt to achieve a currency-neutral policy mix of higher rates and de facto yield curve control? Meanwhile, in trade: China’s Xi stepped up calls for industrial self-sufficiency --so, no rebalancing then?-- and China said it will respond to US chip curbs; Malaysia is to press ahead with Huawei AI, testing the US position on that issue, as Nvidia’s CEO says US chip curbs on China are ‘a failure’; G7 countries are discussing tariffs on oversupplied, low-value Chinese products; the EU is considering a €2 de minimis charge on incoming Chinese packages; the EU is also expected to propose a quota for Russian gas, potentially offering companies a legal way to end their contracts; the US believes new sanctions on Russia may harm peace talks; India imposed restrictions targeting nearly 42% of inbound goods from Bangladesh; and Japan is taking a hardline position ahead of trade talks, demanding the US remove all reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on it. So, yes, much is in flux. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 10:20

— Republicans Race to Finalize 'Big Beautiful Bill' As Johnson Seeks Memorial Day Deadline

 

at 5/21/25 8:05am

Republicans Race to Finalize 'Big Beautiful Bill' As Johnson Seeks Memorial Day Deadline After weeks of turmoil and negotiations, House Republicans are inching closer to passing their sweeping domestic-policy package, anchored by a multi-trillion-dollar suite of tax cuts, as Speaker Mike Johnson races to finalize the legislation ahead of the Memorial Day recess. ouse Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., at the US Capitol on May 6. Graeme Sloan / Bloomberg via Getty Images file Following a personal visit to Capitol Hill on Tuesday by President Donald Trump and a flurry of behind-the-scenes bargaining, House GOP leaders believe they are nearing a deal with key factions. The House Rules Committee convened late into the night and early morning hours Wednesday, preparing the reconciliation bill for floor action. The committee had only just concluded its first panel - which included the chairs and ranking members of the Oversight, Budget, Armed Services, and Financial Services Committees - shortly before 4:30 a.m. (and then returning to their coffins for a nap?). The second panel will include top lawmakers from House Homeland Security, Judiciary, Natural Resources and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, while a third panel will include the chairs and ranking members from Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, Education and the Workforce & Ways and Means.  In total, 537 amendments have been submitted to Rules - none yet from Democrats. Notably, GOP leadership has still not released its long-awaited manager’s amendment, which will incorporate many of the compromises Johnson negotiated to appease internal party divisions, including revisions to SALT, Medicaid work requirements, and clean-energy tax credits, Punchbowl News reports. Despite the complexity, Johnson is moving aggressively. He hopes to pass a rule and hold a full floor vote as soon as today - a schedule driven by his desire to meet the Memorial Day deadline, avoid attendance issues later in the week, and capitalize on rare momentum. The legislative sprint follows a dramatic shift in tone after Trump met Tuesday morning with warring GOP factions and urged unity. Several Republican holdouts publicly maintained opposition afterward, but six senior Republicans involved in the talks said many were privately seeking off-ramps - policy concessions that would let them support the bill while still claiming political victories. As Just the News notes, a final push will require some conservatives to make a leap of faith, like Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX), the chairman of the House Republican Study Committee, is taking.  "Look as a conservative, I want to save as much money as I can, and we have pushed for that in the Republican Study Committee," he told the outlet on Tuesday. "But the President was pretty clear that we've worked five or six months straight on this, and it is time to get it done. "That doesn't mean that a guy like me doesn't want more. Yes, of course I do. But I also want to govern, which means you don't get 100% of everything you want every single time. You have to come back and do it again, and we will," he said during the John Solomon Reports podcast. Currently included in the Bill... Trump tax cuts; the largest in history with an average $5,000 decrease per household, and includes 'No Tax on Tips, Overtime or Social Security.' Immigration and Border Security: “Big, Beautiful Deportations”: funding for 1 million deportations per year Completion of the border wall Expansion of border personnel - including 10,000 new ICE agents, 5,000 customs officers & 3,000 Border Patrol agents - and $10,000 bonuses for front-line border workers Medicaid Reform: Remove 1.4 million illegal migrants from Medicaid Requires work for benefits starting January 2029 Spending Cuts and Fiscal Reform: $1.6 trillion in mandatory spending cuts - the largest deficit reduction in nearly 30 years - though the Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts deficits of nearly $3.3 trillion, even when accounting for "positive economic dynamics," while the Joint Committee on Taxation sees the House reconciliation bill increasing deficits by $3.8 trillion through 2034. The White House Council of Economic Advisers projected that the bill would boost GDP by 4.2% to 5.2% in the short run — a staggering level of growth that goes far beyond the mainstream consensus, via Axios. Repeals all of Biden’s “Green New Scam” subsidies & ends electric vehicle mandates Social and Cultural Measures: Ends taxpayer-funded sex reassignment procedures for minors Infrastructure and Modernization: Major overhaul of air traffic control systems Support for Families and Workers: Launch of "MAGA Accounts" for newborns (tax-advantaged savings) Increased child tax credit, strengthened paid family leave, and repeals IRS gig worker reporting rule ($600 for Venmo/PayPal) Support for Farmers: $10 billion+ in tax cuts & eliminates death tax to aid generational farm transfers SALT One of the most contentious sticking points has been the state and local tax deduction, or SALT. Republicans from high-tax states have demanded relief from the $10,000 cap implemented in 2017. After intense pressure, Johnson offered a revised framework: a $40,000 cap for households earning up to $500,000 (down from a Tuesday proposal for income up to $751,000), with the cap and income threshold escalating 1% annually for ten years. While it falls short of SALT advocates’ hopes - particularly in addressing the so-called marriage penalty - it’s more than many conservatives are comfortable with. "This is purely a House play and designed to deal with the political challenge they have to get to 218," Senator John Thune (R-SD), a longtime opponent of expanding SALT, said in an interview Tuesday. "But, I mean, that seems like an incredibly generous offer." Thune alluded to possible markups in Senate committees once the legislation arrives from the House. But that’ll be dictated by the House’s timing and what senators think of the proposal. “I’m a regular order guy. I think you can improve the product,” Thune said. “But obviously, depending on what happens in the House and the timeline we have to work with, getting committees up and going and doing their thing takes a while - and how ready the product is for prime time… There are certain things the Senate wants to have its imprint on.” -Punchbowl Meanwhile, to placate the House Freedom Caucus, Johnson has proposed accelerating the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits enacted under President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Initially scheduled to begin after 2028, the new plan would start the phase-out in 2028, with a carveout for nuclear credits. Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) signaled progress Tuesday evening, backing off prior demands to slash Medicaid funding and saying talks were “moving in the right direction.” Still, not all conservatives are satisfied. Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) are expected to vote no. Others are calling for the party to return to a two-bill strategy - a position rejected months ago by both House and Senate GOP leadership. ROY just came out of confab with Johnson super sad. Says “we will see” if he still a “no” https://t.co/Xh3NuZULr5 — Erik Wasson (@elwasson) May 21, 2025 Despite those tensions, GOP leaders are betting on Trump’s endorsement and the pressure of a looming deadline to push the bill through. “Things don’t get better when you hold it out there,” one senior Republican said. Another added bluntly: “It’s easier to break up with someone from a basement over email. Harder to do it in person, face-to-face.” Meanwhile, Democrats are preparing their messaging campaign. A memo from the House Majority Fund - a group aligned with Democratic leadership — advised lawmakers to focus on how the GOP legislation would raise prices for everyday Americans while benefiting the wealthy, rather than lean on technical deficit arguments or hyperbolic language. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) added fuel to the fire Tuesday night, estimating that the Republican bill would increase the deficit by $2.3 trillion over the next decade. The CBO projected automatic spending cuts to Medicare and other safety-net programs without congressional action and warned that the bill would boost the incomes of the wealthiest 10% of Americans while reducing incomes for the bottom 10%. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), ranking member on the Budget Committee, called the legislation "absolutely devastating" for working Americans. Protesters gathered outside the Capitol on Wednesday morning, denouncing proposed cuts to Medicaid. Despite the fierce opposition, House Republican leaders believe they are close. And if the manager’s amendment is released in time, Johnson may force the issue by calling a floor vote before lawmakers - including members of his own party - have had a full opportunity to digest the final terms. For Johnson, the choice is strategic: act quickly or risk watching weeks of work fall apart under the weight of delay. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 10:05

— Congress To Seize Control Of AI: States Stripped Of Regulatory Power

 

at 5/21/25 7:50am

Congress To Seize Control Of AI: States Stripped Of Regulatory Power Via JonFleetwood.substack.com, Buried deep in Congress’s 1,116-page “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is a provision so sweeping, so dystopian, and so underreported that it’s hard to believe it was passed at all. Section 43201 of the bill, blandly titled the “Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology Modernization Initiative,” doesn’t just fund the federal government’s full-scale AI expansion—it removes every state’s right to regulate artificial intelligence for the next decade. Let that sink in: For the next ten years, no state in America—not even your state—will be allowed to create its own safeguards, protections, or liability standards for how AI is developed or deployed. “No State or political subdivision thereof may enforce any law or regulation regulating artificial intelligence models… during the 10-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act.” - Sec. 43201(c)(1) of the bill This is not a theoretical threat. It’s a federal ban on local AI regulation—handing the reins to the very bureaucrats and corporate tech giants already embedding AI into military systems, healthcare, financial markets, education, and law enforcement. This section of the bill is a preemptive strike against state sovereignty. It neuters legislatures and governors from protecting their own citizens—just as powerful corporations and federal agencies rush to install AI systems into every layer of society. It’s not just overreach. It’s a federal power grab dressed as “modernization.” And President Trump is now marching on Capitol Hill to personally demand the bill’s passage—pushing the very legislation that would shield his $500 billion Stargate AI surveillance grid from any state-level resistance. The bill—developed by the House Budget Committee, which passed the legislation yesterday—still needs to be voted on in the House and Senate before it hits Trump’s desk, so if you want your senators and representatives to vote no on it, you can contact them here and tell them why. The House is expected to vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill by the end of this week. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:50

— GLAAD Claims Free Speech Surge On Social Media Undermines LGBT Safety

 

at 5/21/25 7:30am

GLAAD Claims Free Speech Surge On Social Media Undermines LGBT Safety One of the most detrimental self-sabotage efforts of the woke movement was their rabid push to control public speech online.  In the case of gay and trans issues, any criticism no matter how factual or logical was met with Orwellian oversight.  For most major social media apps, simply engaging in debate with LGBT activists could mean your account would be flagged and silenced for days or weeks at a time.  Refusing to use a trans person's preferred pronouns could result in a permanent ban.   Such policies were established hand-in-hand with federal government efforts to codify LGBT language and make gay and trans people a privileged class protected from any and all scrutiny. Governments and social media platforms partnered up to institute speech controls that might not be possible otherwise.  Under the guise of "protecting LGBT people" from discrimination, the door to arbitrary censorship was opened.  This is why in the US there is no such thing as a legal definition for "hate speech".  Classifying any speech as "hate speech" would represent a clear violation of the 1st Amendment.  Yes, you can "yell fire" in a crowded theater, and yes you can call people whatever pejoratives you want to call them.  Hurt feelings are irrelevant to the law, and this is a good thing. GLAAD, the gay and trans lobby group, thinks otherwise. The organization issued an “alarming” Social Media Safety Index report this month, which found that, after significant rollbacks in protected speech, social media platforms are overwhelmingly "failing to protect" LGBTQ people. The only major app that did not receive an "F" grade on LGBT safety was TikTok, which got a D+.  GLAAD has now changed it's grading system due to the lack of platforms meeting their standards.  For 2025, the platforms were rated numerically, with TikTok at 56/100; Facebook: 45/100; Instagram: 45/100; YouTube: 41/100; Threads: 40/100; and X the lowest at 30/100. “At a time when real-world violence and harassment against LGBTQ people is on the rise, social media companies are profiting from the flames of anti-LGBTQ hate instead of ensuring the basic safety of LGBTQ users,” GLAAD President and CEO Sarah Kate Ellis said in a statement shared with TheWrap.  “These low scores should terrify anyone who cares about creating safer, more inclusive online spaces,” she added. Taking into account the fact that woke activists consider mean words to be the same as an act of violence, it's difficult to take any warnings from GLAAD seriously.  The report lists 14 indicators which address a range of issues affecting LGBTQ people online, including data privacy, moderation transparency, training of content moderators, and workforce diversity.  The factor that most interests GLAAD, however, is online censorship.  Jenni Olson, senior director of social media at GLAAD, argues that “The terrible rollbacks from Meta and YouTube are the most important news this year,” referring to both company’s recent decisions to allow previously prohibited hate speech, such as references to LGBTQ people being “abnormal” and “mentally ill” as well as the use of pejorative terms such as “tranny” and “transgenderism.”  “It is especially horrible that YouTube removed gender identity from its list of protected characteristics - and yet is continuing to state that the policy hasn’t changed, when it very clearly has …This is just unprecedented for a major platform. It is extremely concerning for a company to remove a protected characteristic group from a hate speech policy,” Olson said. In other words, online speech policies are going back to normal and GLAAD doesn't like it.  Frankly the amount of social division and strife caused over protecting the fragile feelings of a tiny percentage of the total population isn't worth it.  LGBT groups are nothing more than a convenient minority vehicle which the establishment tried to use to inject thought control into the public consciousness.  The societal damage done has been immense and will take years to reverse.    The popular anger over LGBT issues was created by the very activists crying about safety.  If they had left people alone instead of trying to force their ideological language on the masses, there would be no animosity today.  They earned public suspicion by trying to silence public discussion.  Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:30

— Trump Says He Had To Run Again After "Rigged Election" To "Shove It Up Their Ass"

 

at 5/21/25 7:10am

Trump Says He Had To Run Again After "Rigged Election" To "Shove It Up Their Ass" Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, President Trump said Monday that he was relentlessly determined to regain the Presidency after the “rigged” 2020 election. Trump made the remarks during a Kennedy Center Board dinner in the White House’s State Dining Room Monday. “They rigged the election,” the president said, adding “And then I said, you know what I’ll do? I’ll run again, and I’ll shove it up their ass.” ?TRUMP: "They rigged the election. I said 'You know what I'll do? I'll run again and I'll shove it up their ass."pic.twitter.com/V0hDh8Csgf — Autism Capital ? (@AutismCapital) May 20, 2025 He continued, “And that’s what I did, and all of a sudden, I then realized— I said you know what, I got the Olympics, I got the World Cup, and I got the 250th.” He is referring to the LA Olympics in 2028, the football (soccer if you’re American) World Cup next year, and the upcoming 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. He noted that during his first term he played a major role in winning bids for the sporting events. “Look at the way this works out,” Trump declared, explaining “If they would have left us alone and wouldn’t have cheated on the election, and wouldn’t have rigged it, I would have been retired right now,” Trump further noted.  “I would have been happily doing something else, and instead, they have me for four more years. Can you believe it?” Trump added. Greatest President in US History. I’ll chisel that man on Mt Rushmore myself. — Muscular Sack (@MuscularSack) May 20, 2025 LMAO BASED. This is exactly why they're terrified of him ? he takes their games and turns them right back on them. Absolute chad energy. — Kaizen Ki ☀️ (@AwenEnergy) May 20, 2025 They poked the bear and then found out. — Klay Thompson (@Thompsonklay) May 20, 2025 This is my President ?? — Alpha-Bravo (@aburk203) May 20, 2025 Exactly what the man did too??? — Sputnik (@VasBroughtToX) May 20, 2025 *  *  * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:10

— Target Reports Soft Earnings, Slashes Outlook As Consumer Spending Weakens

 

at 5/21/25 7:00am

Target Reports Soft Earnings, Slashes Outlook As Consumer Spending Weakens Mega retailer Target slashed its annual sales forecast after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly results, citing trade tariffs, boycotts, and slumping consumer confidence. A broader turnaround plan to re-establish the retailer as a leading discount department store appears to be faltering, with Goldman's top consumer analyst taking a bearish stance on the stock. In the quarter that ended May 3, Target reported a 1Q25 adjusted EPS of $1.30, missing both Goldman and Refinitiv consensus estimates of $1.71 and $1.64, respectively. Comparable sales declined 3.8%, versus consensus expectations of a 1.0% decline, driven by a 2.4% drop in traffic and a 1.4% decrease in average tickets. Consumers visibly spent less per visit, and Target CEO Brian Cornell expressed his dissatisfaction with the quarter's results to analysts in an earnings call:  "I want to be clear that we're not satisfied with these results. We've got to drive traffic back into our stores and visits to our site." By channel, store comps fell 5.7%, while e-commerce comps rose 4.7%. This was supported by over 35% year-over-year growth in same-day delivery via Target Circle 360 and continued strength in drive-up services. Key seasonal events such as Valentine's Day and Easter led to outperformance for stores; however, performance during non-holiday periods was weaker. Target executives warned that the lingering issues that impacted sales in the first quarter would roll into the current quarter, which is one reason the discount retailer slashed its full-year earnings and sales guidance. The retailer expects a low-single-digit decline in sales for the fiscal year ending next January, with prior guidance forecasting sales growth around 1% for the year. Here's more color from Goldman on Target's dismal outlook: TGT lowered FY25 sales guidance and now expects a LSD decline (vs. +1% prior), compared to GS/consensus of +0.2%/+0.3%. The company also lowered adj. EPS guidance by 14% at the midpoint to $7.00-9.00 (vs. $8.80-9.80 prior), compared to GS/consensus at $8.61/$8.46. TGT did not provide guidance for FY25 SSS or operating margin rate. Goldman's consumer specialist Scott Feiler provided clients with his first take on Target's earnings:  "This felt like it had among the lowest expectations reports into the event. Despite most expecting a very weak print, we had seen some covers the last few days, mainly from those cognizant of the bar. The print did come in about as bad (but not necessarily worse) vs expected. At 11.7x the mid-point of the newly lowered EPS guide, the stock will be a fascinating one to watch. If TJX is a buyer on dips (as indicated above), we think most investors will look to short TGT on positioning driven pops, until they can show an infection in comp sales (-3.8% comps vs most all peers in pretty solidly positive territory)." Goldman has a "Neutral" rating on Target with a 12-month price target of $101.  In a separate note, JPMorgan analysts Christopher Horvers and his team described the retailer's earnings results as "soft." Horvers noted that EPS missed JPM and consensus estimates due to "higher markdown rates and digital fulfillment supply chain costs, partially offset by lower shrink." JPM is rated "Neutral" on Target.  Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Jennifer Bartashus and Jibril Lawal said, "Weaker-than-expected 1Q performance make full-year cuts to sales and adjusted EPS a prudent move against an uncertain backdrop."  Bartashus and Lawal noted that the retailer's product mix makes it more vulnerable to tariffs than other big-box retailers.  "Target's implementation of a new multiyear acceleration office underscores the need for a broader turnaround plan to re- establish the brand's cachet with customers," the analysts said.  In April, we asked, "Are Democrats Unintentionally Sabotaging Retailer Target?"... After all, Democratic-leaning respondents have expressed to the UMich Survey their views of an economic apocalypse ahead.  To note, Morning Consult's data recently showed who exactly shops at Target: "Walmart is more popular among Republicans, while more Democrats see Target in a favorable light." So again, we ask: "Are Democrats Unintentionally Sabotaging Retailer Target?"... Target shares are down more than 6% in premarket trading.  Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:00

— Futures Slide As 30Y Yield Rises Above 5%, Oil Jumps On Iran War Fears

 

at 5/21/25 6:27am

Futures Slide As 30Y Yield Rises Above 5%, Oil Jumps On Iran War Fears US equity futures and global markets are weaker with both tech and small caps underperforming as yields rise (10Y TSY  at 4.53% last) and the curve bear steepens. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% with sentiment hit by a CNN report that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. That sent oil higher, while haven assets outperformed; Nasdaq futures also drop 0.6%, with Mag7 names mostly lower and Semis/Cyclicals underperforming. In Europe major markets are mostly lower with the UK leading and France lagging. UK inflation his a 15-month high. Treasury yields ticked above key psychological levels, with the 30-year above 5%. The dollar lost ground against all major currencies pushing the DXY index back below 100 as the yen continues its relentless ascent while Japanese long bonds crater. Commodities are higher this morning, benefiting from the lower dollar and led higher by energy and precious metals with the former higher on elevated geopolitical risk. Oil climbed about 0.7% on a report that Israel could be gearing up for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is another light macro data day with no macro news but with multiple Fed speakers. Earnings from big retailers will be in focus for clues on the impact of tariffs. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.5%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Nvidia -0.7%, Amazon -0.8%, Meta -0.6%). Canada Goose rose 9% after the coat manufacturer posted fourth-quarter revenue that beat estimates. Lowe’s (LOW) climbs 2% after comparable sales beat expectations during the latest quarter as shoppers maintained home spending despite weakening consumer sentiment and economic turbulence. Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.3% after the biotechnology company voluntarily withdrew its pending biologics license application for its flu, Covid combination vaccine for adults 50 years and older. Target (TGT) slumped 4% after the beleaguered company cut its FY sales outlook, and now sees full year sales declining by single digits after previously seeing growth NU Holdings (NU) falls 2.6% after saying said Chief Operating Officer Youssef Lahrech is stepping down, adding to a string of management changes in the upper ranks of Latin America’s standout financial technology firm. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slips 3% after the cybersecurity provider posted quarterly results and gave an outlook. Analysts note subscription and support revenue slightly missed expectations and JPMorgan reduced its price target. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) declines 4% after the video-game publisher announced plans to sell $1 billion of new stock to investors. The offering range is $225 to $232 per share, according to people familiar with the matter. Toll Brothers (TOL) gains 3% after the company reaffirmed its expectations for home sales in its full fiscal year, citing resilience among its affluent buyers. UnitedHealth (UNH) tumbles 5% after the Guardian reported that the health insurer secretly paid nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers for ailing residents. VF Corp. (VFC) falls 12% after the owner of apparel and footwear brands forecast a wider-than-expected adjusted operating loss from continuing operations for the first quarter. Target, Lowe’s, Marshalls-owner TJX and Timberland maker VF Corp are all set to report this morning. Any comments on post-tariff pricing adjustments will be key after Walmart warned of price hikes last month, with Trump retorting that the retailer should “eat the tariffs.” Overnight, republicans said they reached an agreement on state and local tax deductions for President Donald Trump’s economic bill after negotiating through the night. While investors have rushed back into stocks on hopes that the US is easing off its tariff threats, there are questions about whether gains can be sustained as concerns about fiscal deficits and mounting debt drive bond yields higher. “There’s a lot of optimism that has been discounted in markets and it seems that many investors believe that the trade war is over,” said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia. “However, the underlying issues which have been at the root of tensions for decades have not been tackled.”   Equity trading volumes were light across the board. The UK and European Union extended the bidding window for debt auctions on Wednesday in response to Bloomberg LP technical issues. Globally, the yield-curve for government debt steepened across most markets as worries mount around swelling debt and deficits. The rate for 10-year US Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.53%, while the yield for gilts with a similar tenure rose six basis points to 4.76%. “The direction of travel is obviously higher,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “At the core of it, fiscal is in question, and it’s not just a US problem, it’s a global problem.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its call on US stocks and Treasuries on expectations that interest-rate cuts will support bonds and boost company earnings. The S&P 500 Index will reach 6,500 by the second quarter of 2026, they wrote. They also see the dollar continuing to weaken as the US’s economic growth premium relative to peers fades.  “The US dollar has of course lost its luster as the undisputed safe reserve asset,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp.  In Europe the Stoxx 600 is on course to snap a four-day win streak as it falls 0.6%. Retail, auto, and travel shares are leading declines while utilities outperform as the only sector up in Europe.  major markets are mostly lower with the UK leading and France lagging. UK inflation his a 15-month high. Here are the biggest European movers: Genfit shares climb as much as 7.6% after the French biotech company said it will receive a €26.5 million milestone payment from Ipsen. SSE rises as much as 1.9% after the UK utility company cut its five-year spending plan by £3 billion as projects slow amid planning delays, while also releasing full-year results. Electrolux Professional rallies as much as 8.5% to its highest level since March 26 after Handelsbanken upgraded its view on the Swedish professional appliances maker to buy from hold, projecting the company will gain market share in the US. Infineon shares rise as much as 1.8% after the chipmaker said it’s collaborating with Nvidia on a new power delivery infrastructure for AI data centers. Orion gains as much as 4.9%, hitting a record high after the Finnish drug company says its partner MSD has expanded the development program for opevesostat to now include women’s cancers. Ypsomed shares rise as much as 6.8% to the highest in more than three months after the drug packaging company forecast sales growth of about 20% for the 2026 fiscal year. Pharma Mar shares rise as much as 10%, extending their winning streak to a sixth session, after the Spanish drugmaker said it filed a European marketing application for a combination of drugs used in treating a form of lung cancer. Marks & Spencer shares fall as much as 3.4% after the fallout from a cyberattack overshadowed a robust earnings report. Currys shares fall as much as 0.8% following today’s trading update, despite the electronics retailer once again boosting its expectations for full-year pretax profit. SoftwareOne shares fall as much as 5.9% after the Swiss IT service provider posted soft revenues and flagged headwinds from Microsoft’s lower incentives will continue for the rest of the year. Hornbach Holding shares fall as much as 14%, the most in five months, after the German home improvement firm posted an outlook that analysts at Baader called muted, with adjusted Ebit guidance well below expectations due to salary increases. Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 31% to the lowest intraday since Oct. 28 after the oil and gas company said flow testing for its Megrez-1 well in Alaska has completed. JD Sports shares slide as much as 13%, the most since January, after the British sports retailer said like-for-like sales fell 2% in its fiscal 1Q, driven by a decline in North America. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained amid continued optimism over the possibility for trade deals between the US and various nations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6% to the highest level since Oct. 7. TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest boosts to the regional benchmark. Key gauges in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan advanced at least 1% each, with equities also trading higher in Hong Kong, Australia and India. The MSCI Asian stock gauge is about 1% away from surpassing its late-September high. In FX, the Dollar is selling off this morning pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lower 0.5% to the lowest level since May 6, with speculation building of potential currency deals attached to trade negotiations. USDKRW is leading the move lower, falling 130bps as SK Finance Ministry said in response to media reports of US demand for strong Won that their is currently working-level discussions on exchange rates, but details have not been finalized (RTRS). USDCNH is trading a marginal 20bps lower overnight, in part due to a relatively strong (low) CNY fix (7.1937), and Beijing's unlikliness to engage in similar discussions to SK, as Authorities threaten legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei chips (BBG). Elsewhere, EUR is trading+50bps higher as vols move higher across the curve with 1m trading at 8.7vols, over 0.5vol higher on the day. JPY (+60bps vs USD) is also outperforming despite the move higher in US yields and stabilized JGB back-end. GBP (flat) is undeperforming the broader complex move higher against the USD, given the strong UK inflation data. At face value, our FX Strategists note that today’s report screens as a continuation of a string of more Sterling supportive data, after the firmer growth data in the past two months. In rates, treasuries bear steepened with 30-year yields up 6bps to 5.02% and 10-year yields up 5bps to 4.53%. Gilts underperformied Treasuries and German peers across the curve, led by the long end of the curve. UK 10-year yields rise ~7 bps to 4.77% after a hotter-than-expected CPI reading in April prompted traders to pare bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England.  Regional European bond yields are higher. In commodities, oil climbed about 0.7% with Brent above $66 a barrel after CNN reported that new US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. It wasn’t clear that Israeli leaders had made a final decision to carry out the strikes, the report added. Gold also gained in haven demand, rising $22 to around $3,312/oz.Bitcoin falls 0.6% toward $106,000. Looking at today's calendar, No US economic data are scheduled, while Fed speaker slate includes Barkin and Bowman at 12:15pm Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini -0.6% Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7% Russell 2000 mini -0.9% Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4% DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.6% 10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.54% VIX +0.7 points at 18.79 Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1220.15 euro +0.3% at $1.1316 WTI crude +1.7% at $63.11/barrel Top Overnight News Republicans in the House are increasingly confident they will be able to strike a reconciliation deal and pass it this week before the Memorial Day recess. Politico US House Rules panel is "still meeting on the bill after working overnight and no sign of amendment making final changes": Bloomberg Trump’s administration is debating an executive order that could open the nearly $9tn US retirement market to private capital groups focused on corporate takeovers, property, and other high octane deals. FT Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has condemned US export controls designed to limit China’s access to AI chips as a “failure” that spurred Chinese rivals to accelerate development of their own products. FT White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Vought said the Moody's downgrade timing was trying to jeopardize the ability to get the budget bill done, although he thinks the budget bill will pass this week and is optimistic. Trump said the Golden Dome defence shield will include space-based interceptors and should be operational by the end of his term, while he added that Canada said they want to be part of it and said the total cost is about USD 175bln. US-China tech tensions are flaring again, with Beijing threatening legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co.’s chips, casting a shadow over a recent trade truce and efforts to sustain dialogue. BBG Temporary trade truce between US/ China has sparked a knee jerk bounce across China’s ports and factory floors. In the week beginning May 12, when the US and China agreed to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, bookings on freighters headed from China to US shores more than doubled from the prior week to about 228,000 TEUs, or twenty-foot equivalent units. BBG Japan’s exports to the U.S. fell in April for the first time in four months as the effects of higher tariffs started to kick in. Exports to the U.S. dropped 1.8% in April from a year earlier, reflecting weaker demand for cars and other machinery including chip-making machines. WSJ Japan’s lead tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, heads to the US on Friday for a third round of talks with his Trump administration counterparts, with a fourth visit this month being considered. Nikkei UK inflation runs hot in Apr, w/the headline CPI coming in at +1.2% (vs. the Street +1%), core CPI +3.8% (vs. the Street +3.6%), and services CPI +5.4% (vs. the Street +4.8%). This print sent the pound to a three-year high against the dollar and short-dated gilts to seven-week lows. Traders now see just one more 25-bp cut from the BOE by year end after CPI surged more than expected to 3.5% in April. WSJ, BBG Oil climbed on a CNN report that US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. BBG Morgan Stanley mid-year outlook: turns Overweight on US equities and US Treasuries; expects USD to continue to weaken - expects EUR/USD at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by Q2 2026 Trade/Tariffs China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China's advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism, while it added that US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. MOFCOM also stated that the US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violating international law and basic norms. Furthermore, it said China urges the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices and to abide by international economic and trade rules and respect other countries' rights to scientific and technological development. Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday and a fourth visit to the US this month is also a possibility, according to Nikkei. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St but with the gains capped in the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and tier-1 data releases. ASX 200 was led by strength in utilities and the commodity-related stocks with gold miners lifted by recent gains in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 faded its opening gains with headwinds from a firmer currency and after mixed Japanese trade data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the predominantly upbeat mood in the region but with the upside limited in the mainland as frictions lingered after China renewed its criticism against the US for its chip controls and urged the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices. Top Asian News South Korea's government will prepare support measures for the biopharmaceutical sector and will prepare additional measures for the auto industry if needed. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mostly lower across the board, but sentiment in Europe has picked up a little this morning to display a more mixed picture. European sectors are mostly lower and hold a slight defensive bias. Utilities takes the top spot, benefiting from its defensive status but with sentiment also boosted after post-earning strength in SSE (+1%). Retail is found at the foot of the pile, with JD Sports (-5%) responsible for much of this after the Co. reported a 2% decline in Q1 Sales. Top European News ECB's de Guindos says equity valuations are high and credit spreads are out of sync with risk. Says the US downgrade was discounted by markets. EZ bond yields have decoupled from US, and spreads are contained. Markets are complacent but that can change. ECB FSR: Rapidly shifting geopolitical environment could test euro area financial stability. UK Deputy PM Rayner sent a secret memo to UK Chancellor Reeves, pushing for a new tax raid on savers, according to The Telegraph. The memo proposed eight tax increases including reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and changing dividend taxes. FX DXY has extended its losing streak into a third session with incremental macro drivers on the light side as the data calendar remains quiet and Fed speak proves to be non-incremental given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. On the trade front, the deal flow appears to have slowed down and there is unlikely to be much in the way of breakthroughs at the G7 finance ministers meeting this week. Elsewhere, focus is on the fiscal front as Trump attempts to push his "big beautiful bill" through Congress. DXY has slipped onto a 99.0 handle with a session trough at 99.42. EUR/USD has extended its rally for the week with a current session peak at 1.1352 vs. an opening price on Monday at 1.1172. This week has been a quiet one in terms of Eurozone newsflow with ECB speak not shifting the dial on market pricing with a June cut near-enough fully priced. For now though, EUR remains underpinned by its appeal of being a liquid alternative to the USD, currently holding around 1.1325. JPY is capitalising on the broadly softer USD with USD/JPY slipping as low as 143.57 overnight before returning to a 144 handle. Focus surrounding Japan remains on the trade front with reporting in the Nikkei noting that Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday. GBP is steady vs. the USD following a choppy reaction to UK CPI metrics. The series saw an across-the-board hotter-than-expected outturn with Y/Y CPI rising to 3.5% from 2.6% (exp. 3.3%) and the all-important services component rose to 5.4% from 4.7% (exp. 4.8%). This elicited a surge in Cable to a multi-year high at 1.3468. However, the move ran out of steam given the negative connotations of a stagflationary outlook in the UK. Mildly diverging fortunes for the antipodeans with AUD firmer vs. the USD and NZD steady. Fresh macro drivers are lacking for both with the payback in AUD likely a by-product of Tuesday's RBA-induced losses. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1937 vs exp. 7.2133 (Prev. 7.1931). Fixed Income USTs started the day on the backfoot, down to a 109-25 base and a few ticks beneath the 109-28+ low from Tuesday. If the move continues, then the 109-20 WTD base is next. The bearish bias has been moderate so far, ahead of an expected floor reading of the US tax/spending bill on Thursday, a 20yr auction this evening in addition to Fed’s Barkin & Bowman. Bunds are lower marginally underperforming USTs at this moment in time though not to quite the same degree as Gilts, see below. Updates thus far include the ECB FSR, which highlighted that a shifting geopolitical environment could test EZ financial stability. ECB's de Guindos also provided some remarks, but little of note. Into the German 2035 Bund auction the downside has increased taking Bunds to a fresh trough at 129.60 - a decent outing, but had little impact on German paper. Gilts are the underperformer this morning with downside in excess of 60 ticks at worst. Driven lower by the above, the morning’s hot inflation series and possibly some concession into supply factoring. To recap the data, Services came in at 5.4% Y/Y, eclipsing the BoE’s 5.0% view, and the headline at 3.5% Y/Y, surpassing the BoE’s average forecast for Q2 of 3.4%. In reaction to this, Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks at the open and have since slipped another 26 to a 90.46 trough, notching a fresh WTD low in the process and lifting the 10yr yield to 4.77%, its highest since early April when 4.79% printed. Germany sells EUR 3.052bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2035 Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.66% (prev. 2.47%) & retention 23.7% (prev. 23.80%) UK's DMO says due to ongoing issues with the Bloomberg terminal, the bidding window for today's 2031 auction has been extended; expects closing time of the auction to be 11:30BST. Commodities Crude futures are overall boosted following a CNN report that new intelligence suggested Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, although it added that it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Oil prices waned off their best levels during APAC trade amid the cautious risk tone across markets. Aside from that, complex-specific newsflow has been light, WTI resides in a USD 62.20-64.19/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.96-66.63/bbl range. Spot gold is kept afloat by dollar weakness and amid the ongoing backdrop of trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,285.34-3,320.84/oz range at the time of writing after topping yesterday's USD 3,295.79/oz high and now eyeing the 12th May peak at USD 3,325.39/oz. Base metals overall trade mixed whilst copper futures extends on the prior day's intraday rebound after gaining on a softer dollar and as Asian bourses mostly shrugged off the weak handover from US peers. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 9,528.70-9,599.00/t range at the time of writing. Iraq's Oil Minister says lower oil prices are on the back of rising crude stocks; hopes oil prices will improve in H2'25. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillates -1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -0.4mln. Geopolitics: Middle East New intelligence suggested that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to US officials cited by CNN although the report added it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Iranian Foreign Minister says "We are considering whether or not to participate in the next round of negotiations with US. We are still examining whether productive talks can take place on that date", via Iran Nuances. UK is reportedly considering sanctions against Israeli far-right ministers, via FT citing sources; discussions are over an asset ban and travel freeze on Finance Minister Smotrich and Security Minister Ben-Gvir. Geopolitics: India-Pakistan Pakistani army says "Indian terror proxies" used by India to attack a school bus in southwest Pakistan. Geopolitics: Ukraine Ukraine's Finance Minister Marchenko said G7 ministers will discuss all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine's reconstruction, while he will reiterate the need for stronger sanctions on Russia. US President Trump said he is not worried about reports of a Russian military buildup along Finland. US Event Calendar 7:00 am: May 16 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.1%, prior 1.1% Central Banks Speakers 12:15 pm: Fed’s Barkin, Bowman Participate in Fed Listens DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap US fiscal matters have dominated again over the last 24 hours, as investors continue to grapple with what the long-term unsustainable nature of US debt means in the near term. After a complete round trip back to pre-downgrade levels on Monday, yesterday saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+6.7bps) moving up to 4.97%, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.39%) ended a run of 6 consecutive gains. And notably, those moves weren’t just confined to the US, with Japan’s long-end yields surging after weak demand at an auction, pushing their 30yr yield (+12.1bps) up to 3.082% - a near 25-year high. They are another +8.9bps higher this morning. Interestingly, in the flash poll I asked yesterday on how the US deficit issue would ultimately resolve itself, a majority (54%) reckoned that politicians would be forced to rein it in over the next decade due to some sort of crisis or economic event. Another 26% expected some sort of monetisation via fresh QE, whilst 15% felt the market would continue to take large deficits in its stride. 5% of you were even more optimistic, thinking that strong economic growth in the year ahead will prevent deficits hitting those levels that have been widely forecast. When it comes to the near term, all eyes are now on the tax bill that the Trump administration are seeking to pass through Congress, as the final agreement will go a long way to determining how big the US deficit becomes in the years ahead. There wasn’t a huge amount of newsflow on that yesterday, but President Trump did go to Capitol Hill as he sought to persuade Republicans to pass the bill. Currently, one of the issues is that Republicans from higher-tax states want a boost in the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, and several have threatened to vote against a bill that doesn’t have a big enough increase in the SALT cap. For instance, Mike Lawler of New York said that “As it stands right now, I do not support the bill”. Another concern is about the debt impact, such as from Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Trump reiterated that he was opposed to deeper cuts to Medicaid that have been advocated by some of the fiscal hawkish Republicans. The overarching issue is that Republicans have an incredibly narrow majority in the House of Representatives. The chamber is currently split 220-213 to the Republicans, meaning it would only take four votes against (along with the Democrats) to sink any bill. In terms of the market reaction, it was a more difficult day for US assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.39%) finally losing ground after 6 consecutive gains. Once again, it was tech stocks that lagged, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.62%) underperforming the S&P for a 4th consecutive session. Tesla (+0.51%) was the only of the Mag-7 to advance as Musk said he is committed to leading the company for the next five years. The equity decline was also pretty broad with two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents lower on the day, though there were gains from the more defensive sectors, including utilities (+0.29%) and consumer staples (+0.27%). Meanwhile for Treasuries, longer-dated maturities struggled amidst the fiscal situation, with the 10yr yield (+3.9bps) up to 4.49%, whilst the 30yr yield (+6.7bps) rose to 4.97% as discussed at the top. But there was a stronger performance at the front-end, where the 2yr Treasury yield (-0.5bps) posted a modest decline to 3.97%. At the same time, near-term Fed rate cut expectations continued to dwindle, with pricing of a rate cut by July falling to only 30%, the lowest this has been since the last cut in December. St Louis Fed President Musalem said that “tariffs are likely to dampen economic activity and lead to some further softening of the labor market” but also noted the potential risk posed by elevated inflation expectations. This morning in Asia, 10 and 30yr USTs are another couple of basis points higher with the 30yr hovering just below 5%. Away from the US debt concerns, European markets saw a clear risk-on move yesterday, with equities posting fresh gains across the continent. In particular, the DAX (+0.42%) hit a fresh all-time high, taking its YTD gains up to +20.73%. Meanwhile, the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) closed in on its own record from early March, ending the day just -1.62% beneath its peak. Elsewhere, that risk-on tone was also evident in sovereign bond markets, where spreads continued to tighten. For instance, the Italian 10yr spread over bunds closed beneath 100bps for the first time since September 2021, at just 99.6bps. And the French spread over bunds also tightened to 65.7bps, the tightest since July, shortly after the legislative election. In absolute terms, that came as yields on 10yr bunds were up +1.8bps, whereas those on OATs (+0.3bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) saw a smaller increase. Here in the UK, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, with 10yr yields up +3.9bps on the day. That followed comments from BoE chief economist Pill, who said that he saw the recent pace of BoE rate cuts as “too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability we face.” This came as Pill explained his dissenting vote at the latest meeting earlier this month, where he had been one of two MPC members to vote to keep Bank Rate unchanged, while the majority favoured a 25bp cut. Separately in Canada, their 10yr yields surged by +12.6bps on the day, which came after their latest CPI print was stronger than expected. Although headline inflation eased to +1.7% in April (vs. +1.6% expected), both of the core inflation measures unexpectedly rose, with CPI-median at +3.2% (vs. +2.9% expected), and CPI-trim at +3.1% (vs. +2.8% expected). In turn, that led investors to dial back expectations for a rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting, which is now only seen as a 28% probability, down from 68% previously. Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning but oil prices have surged by around +1.9% (+3.5% earlier in the session), driven by reports from CNN that US intelligence believe that Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The report suggests no final decision has been made. Equities are mostly shrugging this off with the KOSPI (+0.96%) leading the way followed by the CSI (+0.68%), the Hang Seng (+0.54%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%). Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.56%) is continuing its upward trend, approaching a three-month high after the dovish stance taken by the RBA in yesterday's meeting. Conversely, the Nikkei (-0.24%) is slightly lower after the yield rises and data that showed an unexpected trade deficit in April (more below). S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) futures are edging lower. Turning back to Japan, export growth (+2.0% y/y) continued to decelerate for the second consecutive month in April as the country grappled with the fallout from tariffs imposed by the US. Imports shrank -2.2% from a year ago, less than the Bloomberg estimates of a -4.2% decline and compared to a downwardly revised increase of +1.8% the previous month. As a result, Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly swung into a deficit of -¥115.8 billion (v/s +¥215.3 billion expected) after two months in the black. Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK CPI release for April. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Lane and Escriva, and the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman. Finally, earnings releases include TJX and Target Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 08:27

— UnitedHealth Shares Drop After Report Alleges Secret Bonus Payments To Nursing Homes For Cutting Hospital Transfers

 

at 5/21/25 6:15am

UnitedHealth Shares Drop After Report Alleges Secret Bonus Payments To Nursing Homes For Cutting Hospital Transfers UnitedHealth Group shares dropped as much as 7.5% in premarket trading Wednesday in New York, following a Guardian investigation that revealed the health insurer shelled out "Premium Dividend" and "Shared Savings" bonuses to nursing homes that reduced hospital transfers for sick residents.  The Guardian's investigation is based on thousands of confidential corporate and patient records obtained through sources, public records requests, and court filings, along with interviews with nearly two dozen current and former UnitedHealth and nursing home employees, as well as two whistleblower declarations submitted to Congress. The report offers a new snapshot into UnitedHealth's daily operations at nearly 2,000 nursing homes across the country, where it manages Medicare Advantage coverage for more than 55,000 long-term residents.  Here are some of the key findings from the report: UnitedHealth stationed in-house medical teams at nearly 2,000 nursing homes, incentivizing them to lower hospitalizations through financial rewards like "Premium Dividend" and "Shared Savings" payments tied to hospitalization rates. Internal records show UnitedHealth monitored nursing homes using "admits per thousand (APK)" metrics and set "budgets" for hospitalizations. Facilities with high APKs were denied bonuses. In multiple documented cases, patients were denied urgent hospital care, leading to serious harm, including permanent brain damage. Whistleblowers say these incidents were hidden or minimized. Nurse practitioners were pressured to push "Do Not Resuscitate" (DNR) orders, even when patients had previously expressed the desire for life-saving treatments. UnitedHealth also incentivized increased enrollment in its Institutional Special Needs Plans by offering large payments to nursing homes, which in some cases leaked confidential patient data to help sales teams directly solicit families—often bypassing consent rules. The Guardian noted:  In several cases identified by the Guardian, nursing home residents who needed immediate hospital care under the program failed to receive it, after interventions from UnitedHealth staffers. At least one lived with permanent brain damage following his delayed transfer, according to a confidential nursing home incident log, recordings and photo evidence. A current UnitedHealth nurse practitioner, who recently submitted a congressional complaint regarding the nursing home program, stated: "No one is truly investigating when a patient suffers harm. Absolutely no one. "These incidents are hidden, downplayed and minimized. The sense is: 'Well, they're medically frail, and no one lives for ever.'" A former national UnitedHealth executive said: "APK drove everything. You gain profitability by denying care, and when profitability suffers for the shareholders, that's when people get crazy and do things that are not appropriate." Two current and three former UnitedHealth nurse practitioners said that UnitedHealth managers pressured them to persuade Medicare Advantage members to change their "code status" to DNR, even when patients had clearly expressed a desire to receive all available life-saving treatments. UnitedHealth responded to the Guardian's report, rejecting claims that its employees have prevented hospital transfers.  The Guardian's report comes at a time of crisis for UnitedHealth. Last week, shares logged the worst weekly crash since 1998 after a Wall Street Journal report said the Department of Justice has been conducting a criminal investigation into the company's Medicare practices. In addition, UnitedHealth suspended its 2025 outlook, and its CEO abruptly exited.  In the premarket session, shares fell as much as 7.5% after the Guardian's report.  Only one Wall Street analyst—CFRA's Paige Meyer—had a "Sell" rating on UnitedHealth earlier this year, out of roughly 30 tracked by Bloomberg. Wall Street, it seems, was overly bullish on the insurer—now shares have imploded. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 08:15

— Elon Musk Confirms June Launch For Robotaxis In Austin

 

at 5/21/25 6:05am

Elon Musk Confirms June Launch For Robotaxis In Austin Tesla stock is up about 2% mid-day after a mid-day interview between David Faber and Elon Musk. The Tesla CEO told CNBC that Tesla will launch robotaxis in Austin by the end of June, starting with about 10 vehicles and expanding if all goes smoothly. “It’s prudent for us to start with a small number, confirm that things are going well and then scale it up,” Musk said. The vehicles, Model Ys using an upcoming version of FSD called FSD Unsupervised, will operate without human drivers and be geofenced within Austin. Tesla staff will monitor them remotely, according to CNBC. “We’ll be watching what the cars are doing very carefully and as confidence grows, less of that will be needed,” he told Faber.  Musk aims to expand the service to Los Angeles and San Francisco next. He emphasized Tesla's camera-based, AI-driven approach over pricier lidar-based systems used by competitors like Waymo, which now runs 250,000 paid driverless trips weekly. “What will actually work best for the road system is artificial intelligence, digital neural nets and cameras,” Musk said. CNBC writes that responding to Tesla's 20% drop in Q1 auto revenue, Musk blamed factory retooling for a new Model Y but said demand is now rebounding.  “We can’t make cars if the factories are retooling. But we’ve seen a major rebound in demand at this point,” he told Faber. “When you buy a product, how much do you care about the political views of the CEO or even care what they are?” When asked about BYD and competition, Musk told Faber he pays little attention to competitors and only to what Tesla is working on internally.  Earlier this morning during the Qatar Economic Forum, Musk confirmed he’ll lead Tesla for the next five years: “Yes, no doubt about that at all.” The interview came about a month after Tesla's brutal Q1 earnings, where the company missed Wall Street's expectations and warned about increased uncertainty through the first half of 2025.  Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 08:05

— Great News DIYers: Home Depot CFO Reveals No Tariff Price Hikes 

 

at 5/21/25 5:45am

Great News DIYers: Home Depot CFO Reveals No Tariff Price Hikes  Great news for DIYers and contractors alike: Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail told CNBC this morning that the retailer has no plans to raise prices despite tariffs. This puts Home Depot at odds with Walmart, which is set to hike prices later this month. While Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year sales outlook, it delivered mixed results for the first quarter. "Because of our scale, the great partnerships we have with our suppliers and productivity that we continue to drive in our business, we intend to generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio," CFO McPhail told CNBC in an interview.  McPhail said that more than half of what is on store shelves nationwide comes from suppliers in the U.S. He said the retailer has been pushing to diversify sourcing in recent years. He said by this time next year, not a single country will have 10% of its purchases.  The CFO's comments offer weekend warriors—installing gardens, building chicken coops, and catching up on yard work—a big sigh of relief this spring as the summer season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Home Depot's pricing strategy is at odds with Walmart's, which announced last week that the tariff war threatens its low-price model.  Walmart CFO John David Rainey warned that price hikes were imminent: "If you've not already seen it, it will happen in May and then it will become more pronounced." On the earnings front, Home Depot forecasts 2.8% total sales growth and 1% comparable sales growth for the year, assuming current tariff levels remain in place (30% on Chinese goods, 10% on others). The outlook, which came in better than feared (according to several Wall Street analysts), suggests consumer spending remains resilient, even as University of Michigan survey respondents, particularly among Democrats, continue to express incoming apocalyptic inflation. First-quarter earnings missed Wall Street expectations for the first time since May 2020, though sales beat estimates. Here's what Home Depot reported via Goldman analyst Kate McShane's first take: HD reported adj. 1Q25 EPS of $3.56, below the GS estimate of $3.60 and consensus (Refinitiv) of $3.59. Net sales increased 9.4% y/y to $39.9bn (vs. GS/consensus of $39.1bn/$39.3bn) as comparable sales decreased -0.3% y/y, consistent with the GS estimate of -0.3% and below consensus of -0.1%. Foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total company comparable sales by ~70 bps. During the quarter, HD experienced increases in both average ticket (+0.03% y/y) decelerating from +0.3% in 4Q, and transactions (+2.1% y/y) decelerating from +7.6% in Q4. Comparable sales in the U.S. increased +0.2% y/y. HD's operating margin decreased -86 bps y/y to 13.2% (vs. GS/consensus of 13.5%/13.4%) as gross margin decreased -37 bps y/y to 33.8% while total operating expenses as a % of sales increased +49 bps y/y to 20.5%. Management reaffirmed their FY25 guidance including sales growth of approximately 2.8% (vs. consensus of +2.9%), a 1.0% increase in comparable sales (vs. consensus of +1.1%), gross margin of 33.4% (vs. consensus of 33.4%), adj. operating margin of 13.4% (vs. consensus of 13.3%), and adj. EPS growth of approximately -2.0% (vs. consensus of +0.0%). HD also plans to open ~13 new stores and expect for capital expenditures to be approximately 2.5% of total sales. Analysis Average ticket increased slightly +0.03% y/y to $90.71 from $90.68 in the prior year, while total customer transactions increased +2.1% y/y (decelerating from +7.6% in 4Q). Management noted that they saw better engagement in smaller projects and their Spring events. Gross margin decreased -37 bps y/y to 33.8%, slightly below GS/consensus estimates of 33.9%. Total operating expenses increased +12.1% y/y to $8.2bn, while total operating expenses as a % of sales increased +49 bps y/y to 20.5%. Adjusted operating margin decreased -86 bps y/y to 13.2%, below the GS/consensus estimates of 13.5%/13.4%, and adjusted operating profit of $5.3bn compares to $5.1bn in the prior year (+2.7%). Inventory increased +14.9% y/y (vs. +11.8% in 4Q) which we note compares to the sales increase of 9.4%. The company's payable ratio of 57.0% increased from 56.0% in the prior year. Here are Home Depot's actual 1Q25 results versus estimates via Goldman. McShane maintained a "Buy" rating on the home improvement retailer and a 12-month price target of $394. Additional commentary from Wall Street (list courtesy of Bloomberg): TD Cowen (buy), Max Rakhlenko "Key positives included better-than-feared 1Q comps at (0.3%) which were only slightly below Street, and management reiterated the FY guide," Rakhlenko writes in a note That said, adjusted EPS missed both consensus estimate, and his projection, due to lower EBIT margin, with misses in both gross margin and SG&A Key topics on call will include tariffs/HD's ability to navigate supply chains and pass through price increases, housing dynamics, Pro/Big Ticket engagement, near-term trends Vital Knowledge, Adam Crisafulli This HD report falls into the 'better than feared' bucket based on the decent U.S. comp number and reaffirmed guidance," writes Crisafulli in a note Stifel (hold), W. Andrew Carter Carter views the 1Q report as "neutral," noting that guidance requires an "acceleration in comparable sales growth" for the rest of the year, though he's seeing "signs of resilience and potential strength for home improvement" Says commentary on the conference call will be "key for adding context around the Liberation Day shock" Expects "muted overall response" for the stock and looks for commentary on call to gain "comfort" in the reiterated guidance Truist (buy), Scot Ciccarelli "1Q appears to be a middle of the fairway shot for Home Depot, despite a weather-impacted February, constantly changing rhetoric out of DC and stubbornly-high mortgage rates," Ciccarelli writes in a note U.S. comparable sales were "just below" his estimate, but "just above" most recent competitor revisions HD's lack of comments on tariffs seems to suggest that management views the "ultimate impact as neutral-ish" and that they are focused on how the core business is trending now; expects "plenty of questions" on tariffs during the call Still need to see how steep the future growth curve will be, but positives include HD's 2nd straight positive U.S. comp., Truist credit card data suggests that sales accelerated as weather improved, SRS acquisition will "incrementally benefit" comp. sales by mid-2Q, and Cicarelli expects further sales/earnings gains as the year progresses Citi (buy), Steven Zaccone Expects results to be viewed "favorably" and says HD's results/guidance put "greater focus" on Lowe's earnings report Wednesday, where expectations are lower for comp. sales results/guidance change and tariffs may be more challenging to manage given smaller scale Key topics for call will be: details on comparable sales cadence; ticket vs. transaction contribution to comps for the rest of the year; expected gross margin puts/takes from tariff impact and subsequent price increases; SRS performance; demand elasticity for Pro vs. DIY consumers Bloomberg Intelligence, Drew Reading "Reaffirmed full-year guidance and indication that it's well- positioned to navigate tariffs reflect an increasingly diversified supply chain," Reading writes Within 12 months, HD expects that no country will account for more than 10% of its sourcing Challenges include a weak housing market and an "increasingly cautious" consumer who is putting off big-ticket discretionary projects The takeaway: As Walmart's low-price model comes under pressure, consumers will likely catch on to the shift—and increasingly turn to Home Depot for their DIY needs, especially with stable pricing and strong product availability with its supply chain mainly sourced from the U.S. and diversified worldwide.  Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 07:45

— Nvidia CEO Calls Biden-Era AI Curbs A "Failure" With China 

 

at 5/21/25 5:20am

Nvidia CEO Calls Biden-Era AI Curbs A "Failure" With China  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called U.S. export controls on artificial intelligence chips to China under the Biden administration's AI diffusion rule a "failure" that risks ceding the $50 billion Chinese AI chip market to rivals like Chinese tech giant Huawei.  Huang delivered a keynote speech at Computex in Taipei, Taiwan, earlier today in which he said, "All in all, the export control was a failure," adding, "The fundamental assumptions that led to the AI diffusion rule in the beginning, in the first place, have been proven to be fundamentally flawed." Huang was referring to the Biden-Harris regime era, where the U.S. blocked sales of advanced AI chips to China, which only forced companies to buy advanced chips from its competitor, Huawei. This also sparked a domestic wave of investment to build out supply chains for advanced AI chipmaking to reduce reliance on outside manufacturers.  He said China alone will account for a $50 billion opportunity in 2026, warning that if U.S. tech companies were still cut off from the Chinese market, this would only suggest that local players would buy from competitors.  "China has 50% of the world's AI developers, and it's important that when they develop on an architecture, they develop on Nvidia, or at least American technology," Huang pointed out.  Huang praised President Trump's move to scrap the previous administration's AI diffusion rule: "President Trump realizes it's exactly the wrong goal."  Under the Biden administration, Nvidia's China market share collapsed from 95% to 50%.  Last week, Huang joined President Trump on a Gulf States tour that resulted in massive Blackwell deals for Nividia in Saudi Arabia.  Nvidia secured a deal to supply 18,000 of its cutting-edge Blackwell chips to Humain, an AI startup just launched by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. Huang stated last week: "There's no evidence of any AI chip diversion. These are massive systems. The Grace Blackwell system is nearly two tons, and so you're not going to be putting that in your pocket or your backpack anytime soon. "The important thing is that the countries and the companies that we sell to recognize that diversion is not allowed and everybody would like to continue to buy Nvidia technology. And so they monitor themselves very carefully." "With the AI Diffusion Rule revoked, America will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead the next industrial revolution and create high-paying U.S. jobs, build new U.S.-supplied infrastructure, and alleviate the trade deficit," an Nvidia spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal last week.  Reuters noted, "Trump administration officials are weighing discarding the tiered approach to chip export curbs and replacing it with a global licensing regime with government-to-government agreements, which could give the U.S. clout in trade talks." Given that the Biden-era AI diffusion rule was a "failure," in the words of Nvidia's CEO, one might question whether the policy ultimately benefited Chinese firms by sidelining Nvidia and allowing local competitors to gain market share. Looking ahead, Nvidia will report earnings on Wednesday.  Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 07:20

— "We Have Imported Knife Violence" – Wave Of Attacks Shakes Germany Once Again

 

at 5/21/25 4:30am

"We Have Imported Knife Violence" – Wave Of Attacks Shakes Germany Once Again Via Remix News, Another wave of knife attacks has hit Germany, showing that not much has changed despite the many lost lives and Germans maimed in knife attacks. In fact, the statistics show that these crimes are even getting worse, with 79 knife attacks per day now recorded. A German criminal lawyer warns that Germany has “imported knife violence,” in response to growing blade crimes. In the last few days, headlines include Kosovar man arrested after knife attack in Germany injures three, including 12-year-old girl” “Man stabbed half to death on basketball court,” “Manhunt continues after Syrian asylum seeker stabs 5 outside student bar in Bielefeld,” and “Rioter injures police officer with knife.” However, thousands of such headlines have run in the German press in recent years, with Remix News reporting on many of them. The overwhelming number of perpetrators are foreigners or those with a foreign background, yet despite promises to crack down and enact deportations of migrant criminals, the bloodshed not only continues but appears to be getting worse. His daughter was murdered by an illegal Palestinian migrant, stabbed 38 times, along with her boyfriend. 17-year-old Ann-Marie is gone, but her father won't let her memory die. He delivered a message to Olaf Scholz's face: "There are parents standing at the grave or coffin of… pic.twitter.com/JDslDGKFA4 — Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 16, 2024 “We have imported knife violence. In other cultures, the knife is a kind of status symbol. This is changing the social climate here in the country,” stated criminal attorney Udo Vetter. He further notes that “knives have become an everyday companion for many people. And the barrier to using them is low.” Notably, he warns that due to the rise of knives and knife crimes, it is creating a problem that is expected to only grow exponentially, with more and more people arming themselves with knives out of fear. “Because if some people deliberately pack a knife as a murder weapon, more and more people will also resort to knives, supposedly to defend themselves,” stated Vetter. “Young people in particular have knives in their pockets just like their cell phones.” However, this problem has been warned about nearly every week, including from the German police themselves. Manuel Ostermann, deputy head of the Federal Police Union, stated that “the knife as a means of committing a crime always immediately poses a concrete threat to life and limb. Politicians must now take all possible measures to curb this phenomenon.” Ostermann is the same police union head who said that Germany’s crime problem is actually an immigration problem during a viral speech last year. ??‼️ "Germany is no longer a safe country... The migration crisis is first and foremost a crime crisis." German police union (DPoIG) chairman Manuel Ostermann makes a major statement following the Solingen terror attack by a Syrian Islamist. pic.twitter.com/ZolmrLnMHa — Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 28, 2024 The head of the German Police Union, Rainer Wendt, also spoke out about the knife crime problem, saying: “The threshold for violence is getting lower and lower. And the fuse is getting shorter. Knives are being drawn even for trivial reasons and seemingly harmless disputes.” As Remix News previously reported, violent crime reached a record high in Germany last year, with foreigners responsible for nearly half of crimes.  There were 29,014 cases in total involving a crime where a knife was used, of which, 15,741 were knife attacks. Serious and dangerous bodily harm with a knife increased by 10.8 percent in 2024 compared to 2023. ?? For every well-integrated Middle Eastern migrant, you have so many of these guys causing terror across Europe. Knife crime has skyrocketed in Germany, with nearly 30,000 knife-related crimes taking place last year. Video shot near German supermarket Kaufland. pic.twitter.com/maYEL9vYdA — Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 17, 2025 The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is going on the offensive under the new Christian Democrat-led government, with security and immigration still top concerns. Alice Weidel, AfD party co-leader, mocked the new government’s “five-point plan” to fix the immigration crisis, saying that the border is not secured despite promises. “Failed border controls and broken promises are what remains of the ‘5-Point Plan.’ This is demonstrated not least by the violent incidents in Bielefeld and Halle. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU state governments show no willingness to initiate a migration turnaround,” wrote Weidel on X. Gescheiterte Grenzkontrollen & gebrochene Versprechen sind das, was vom "5-Punkte-Plan" geblieben ist. Das zeigen nicht zuletzt die Gewalttaten in Bielefeld & Halle. In NRW & Sachsen-Anhalt zeigen die CDU-Landesregierungen keinerlei Willen zur Einleitung einer Migrationswende. pic.twitter.com/upQcik1l4N — Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) May 19, 2025 The leader of the AfD parliamentary group in the Baden-Württemberg state parliament, Anton Baron MdL, has accused Christian Socialist Union (CDU) parliamentary group leader Manuel Hagel of hypocrisy regarding knife crimes in Germany. “Although the proportion of people without German passports is significantly lower in the population, there is a significantly higher crime rate here,” he told SWR. He said he considered the increased number of knife attacks by foreigners “alarming.” “Such ‘unpleasant truths’ must be spoken. It couldn’t be more hypocritical: The CDU, above all, has caused this situation since 2015. Has the party distanced himself from it to this day? On the contrary: Hegel has rejected all our draft laws and motions to limit migration and defamed us as more right-wing than right-wing. Hagel can point his bigoted finger at others as much as he wants: his party, under Interior Minister Strobl, believes it can tackle the rampant problem of migrant knife-wielding men with pseudo-solutions like gun-free zones. But this problem no longer needs to be ‘debated in our country’ – it must finally be solved. But apart from the AfD, no one wants or can do that.” Read more here... Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 06:30

— Biden's Was The First Fully Deep-State Presidency

 

at 5/21/25 4:11am

Biden's Was The First Fully Deep-State Presidency Authored by Jarrett Stepman via The Daily Signal, Biden’s Presidency Is a Scandal of Historic Proportions The “presidency” of Joe Biden is one of the greatest scandals in American history. The legacy media is only now covering the mental incapacity of a president who apparently left the entire ship of state to the unaccountable bureaucracy. On Friday, Axios released Friday night news dump audio of Biden’s 2023 interview with special counsel Robert Hur. Exclusive: Axios obtained the audio of Robert Hur's 2023 interviews of Biden which show repeated mental lapses as he struggles to remember words & dates amid long, uncomfortable pauses. Biden WH didn't release it last year. Listen below. w/ @MarcACaputo https://t.co/VJr2c9m3bh pic.twitter.com/Xoa0rQMtG9 — Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) May 16, 2025 If you heard the tape and haven’t been in a coma for the past four years, then nothing here is truly surprising. The former president sounded senile and evasive when answering questions about his handling of top secret documents. Some of my colleagues went through the full tapes and found that Biden “forgot the names of President Barack Obama’s former secretary of defense and comedian Jay Leno; referred to Africa as a country, not a continent; and was unaware he had in his possession a notebook with war advice in it for Obama during his interview with special counsel Robert Hur and investigators in October 2023.” Biden certainly did not sound like someone who could be trusted to make large-scale national decisions or even small-scale personal ones. This is entirely unsurprising unless you are a left-leaning corporate media journalist on the political beat.  If you are, then I’m sure that the reports coming out about Biden in office are jaw-dropping, gob-smacking revelations to you. The media elite are shocked, shocked to discover that Biden may have been unfit for office. The release of these tapes was followed by a Sunday afternoon reveal that Biden has been diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer. The cancer diagnosis is certainly a terrible thing. But the idea that this should end the story about what happened the last four years is a farce. It couldn’t be clearer now that due to mental and physical ailments, Biden was a diminished man from the moment he assumed the president’s office. Despite some of the aforementioned elite journalists calling for a lid to be put on conversations about Biden’s presidency due to his health, the reality is the cancer diagnosis only raises more unsettling questions. Is this really a new diagnosis? Did Biden’s doctors really somehow miss the signs of treatable cancer? And that makes this situation entirely unprecedented. Yes, President Woodrow Wilson was at one point incapacitated during his final term in office, but that was at the tail end of his presidency. Wilson suffered a series of strokes after his highly energetic campaign to convince Americans to join the League of Nations. His wife and even some members of the media tried to cover it up, but ultimately the Democratic Party pulled the plug on his extremely brief flirtation with running for a third term. There was no widespread attempt to fool the American people and ensure another term for an “almost catatonic” president, as one witness at George Clooney’s June fundraiser for Biden described the candidate. This situation with Biden was much, much worse, the cover-up far more extensive, and the consequences were far more potentially dire in the age of instant communication and weapons capable of quickly destroying all of human civilization. How shall we think of those years in which multiple crises developed around the globe, Americans were mass deprived of employment due to government-forced vaccinations, states were browbeaten to allow children to get life-altering hormones, and an ultimately victorious presidential candidate was nearly jailed? I’ve tried to think of some apt historical comparisons. President John Tyler was known to some of his more cantankerous critics as “his accidency,” due to being the first vice president to assume the president’s office after the death of the commander in chief. The attitude was that nobody actually elected him to become president, and in the early days of the republic the Constitution was a bit murky about whether he could just assume office or a new election must be held. Regardless of the nickname, Tyler became an aggressive, active commander in chief—somewhat to the chagrin of many in his party. But Biden was in some way the mirror opposite. Despite being elected in a highly contested election, he seems to have never really assumed his responsibilities. Biden’s lethargy was only matched by his lack of transparency. The better word for Biden would be “his irrelevancy.” While the 46th president’s handlers, most likely at the behest of former President Barack Obama, led him around in an extended real-world version of “Weekend at Bernie’s,” the federal apparatus operated on its own. This was rule by “experts,” or really rule by the managerial class that re-created the old spoils system but made it totally unaccountable to the American people. Decisions were carried out by vast, interlocking agencies at the behest of their Democratic Party allies whom they serve. This was the first fully deep-state presidency. How is this not the most plausible answer to everything we have seen? https://t.co/7wyfPSFDMB — Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) May 20, 2025 Biden was awarded by the Democratic Party with the nominal career-capping title as president, but the functions and even the decisions demanded of his office were clearly distributed to his subordinates and the federal leviathan. The result was a complete disaster. Americans rightly lost faith in their leaders and the elite institutions attached to this corrupted apparatus. U.S. foreign policy was at best strategically adrift. Our enemies around the globe went on the march. The people feared the government more than the government feared them. The upshot of these calamities is that we were delivered a national wake-up call at a time of crisis. A political counterrevolution is taking place that may have never happened had its depth not been revealed at least in part by the media’s cover-up of Biden’s obvious infirmity.   But even though the first 100-plus days of President Donald Trump couldn’t be more different than the four years of his predecessor, we can’t forget how bad things got, how much the legacy media covered for a senile president’s obvious incapacity, and how deeply threatening the permanent bureaucratic state is to American liberty. *  *  * Best sellers at ZH Store last week: Steak Lover's Bundle Grassfed Ground Beef Bundle  Ultra Combo Wagyu Bundle  Paper Street Tallow Set ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 06:11

— Nike Is Still America's Favorite Apparel Brand

 

at 5/21/25 3:45am

Nike Is Still America's Favorite Apparel Brand There are few markets where brands matter more than in fashion and apparel.  You can sell a white t-shirt for $10 dollars, or you can put a brand logo on it and sell the same shirt for $50 (or $120 for that matter).  While some brands charge prices unaffordable for the majority of people and seek brand strength in exclusiveness, others happily cater to the mainstream and still manage to maintain a strong brand image. Nike is one example for such a brand.  Even though the company’s iconic Swoosh is omnipresent, the brand is almost universally loved – and not just by athletes.  As Felix Richter reports, according to Statista Consumer Insights, Nike is the most popular apparel/footwear brand in the United States.    You will find more infographics at Statista When asked about the brands they bought products from in the past three months, 40 percent of the 2,168 Americans polled named Nike as one of their go-to brands, with the company's largest rival Adidas a close second at 35 percent. Other popular brands include American classics Calvin Klein, Levi's and Ralph Lauren as well as Nike's Jordan brand, New Balance and Under Armour, further illustrating the popularity of athleisure brands. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 05:45

— Houthis Add Key Northern Israeli Port To Target List For Ballistic Missiles

 

at 5/21/25 3:00am

Houthis Add Key Northern Israeli Port To Target List For Ballistic Missiles Via The Cradle The Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF.. Ansarallah/Houthis) announced that its leadership has decided to impose a blockade on the northern Israeli port of Haifa, in response to Tel Aviv’s violent escalation in the Gaza Strip.  "In response to the Israeli enemy's escalation of its brutal aggression against our brothers and people in Gaza … The Yemeni Armed Forces … has decided, with God's help, to implement the leadership's directives to begin work on imposing a naval blockade on the port of Haifa," it said in a statement released on its media page early Tuesday. "Accordingly, all companies with ships present in this port or heading to it are hereby notified that the aforementioned port has been included in the target bank since the time of announcing this statement, and they must take into consideration what is said in this statement and what will be stated later," it added.  Via Reuters Since the Omani-mediated ceasefire agreement earlier this month – which saw Washington end its indiscriminate campaign against Yemen and Sanaa stop its operations targeting US ships – the YAF has targeted Israel several times.  A May 12 report by the New York Times (NYT) revealed that US President Donald Trump was forced to agree to a deal that did not include Yemen halting attacks against Israel, given that the first weeks of the US campaign burned through $1 billion in munitions and "had not even established air superiority" over the YAF and the Ansarallah movement.  In addition to the naval ban on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, Sanaa has also maintained a blockade on Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, which was directly struck by a Yemeni ballistic missile in early May.  As a result, several international airliners have suspended flights to Israel. Tel Aviv has recently launched massive attacks on Yemen and has threatened to assassinate Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Ansarallah – which is merged with the YAF. The YAF carried out its first hypersonic ballistic missile attack targeting the city of Haifa on 23 April. The Houthi decision to add Haifa port to its target list comes after Israel reportedly killed over 500 Palestinians in Gaza in just a few days.  On May 17, Israel announced the start of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which aims to bring the entirety of Gaza under Israeli control and will see the army displace the whole population and confine it to a small area in the southern region of the strip.  Yemeni Armed Forces: "We warn global airlines against heading to Ben Gurion Airport because it is unsafe." pic.twitter.com/lKQZL1EgWy — COMBATE |?? (@upholdreality) May 4, 2025 After three months of a total blockade that compounded a severe humanitarian crisis in the strip, Israel allowed only five aid trucks into Gaza on Tuesday. Tel Aviv said it would only allow a “basic quantity” of food to enter Gaza.  Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 05:00

— Breaking Down Global Military Spending By Country In 2024

 

at 5/21/25 2:15am

Breaking Down Global Military Spending By Country In 2024 In a world where superpowers are defined by economic and military stature, countries continue to invest hundreds of billions in military and defense every year. In 2024, global military expenditure reached $2.7 trillion, hitting a record high - and just three countries made up more than half of the total. This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, breaks down global military spending by country in 2024, highlighting the top military spenders using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The World’s Biggest Military Spenders in 2024 America continues to dominate global military expenditure, spending nearly $1 trillion or 3.4% of its GDP on defense in 2024. U.S. military expenditure makes up over one-third of the global total, and it also has the world’s biggest defense budget. Here’s a look at the top 20 countries by military spending in 2024: China follows the U.S. with an estimated $314 billion in military expenditure, up 7% from 2023. Over the last decade (2015–2024), China’s military spending increased by 59%. Meanwhile, Russia’s spending was up by 38% year over year at nearly $150 billion. Together, the United States, China, and Russia—often considered strategic competitors—made up 54% of global military expenditure in 2024. Germany and India round out the top five, with both countries ramping up military spending in light of rising geopolitical tensions in recent years. India’s simmering tensions with Pakistan and China contribute to its defense budget. Meanwhile, as a major NATO member, Germany’s spending is partly down to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Together, NATO countries made up 55% of global military expenditure in 2024. In the eighth spot, Ukraine has seen the biggest jump in military spending in recent years—with its 2024 spending at nearly 10 times 2021 levels. It also has the highest military burden globally at 34.5% of its GDP in 2024. Although peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing, a complete ceasefire is yet to be achieved. To see how global military expenditure has evolved in the 21st century, check out 20 Years of Global Military Spending on the Voronoi app. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 04:15

— UK Space Ambitions Clash With NATO Airspace Concerns

 

at 5/21/25 1:30am

UK Space Ambitions Clash With NATO Airspace Concerns Via CityAM, The UK’s new vertical launch spaceport at Saxa Vord poses risks to Icelandic airspace and territorial waters, potentially disrupting transatlantic flights and marine ecosystems. Exclusion zones for rocket launches could interfere with NATO's ability to effectively patrol the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap, an area of strategic importance for defense. While a memorandum of understanding exists between the UK and Iceland, it may not adequately address the full defense and military ramifications of frequent space launches in this critical region. When I relocated to the UK from New York in 1984, the Cold War was at its peak. US nuclear and conventional forces were spread across Europe and fears of a Soviet invasion or nuclear exchange were ever-present. In the UK, another critical strategic concern was the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap, which are two stretches of the North Atlantic separating these three countries. During the Cold War, Soviet naval forces aimed to control this gap to access the broader North Atlantic and block NATO reinforcements to Europe, a scenario famously depicted in Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. After the Cold War ended and the so-called Peace Dividend reduced the gap’s significance, its strategic importance faded. However, since 2014, with Russia’s renewed assertiveness, the GIUK gap has regained prominence in NATO planning. The US reopened Keflavik Naval Air Station in Iceland in 2016, re-established its 2nd Fleet in 2018 to protect the gap and, as recently as March 2025, Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 increased its patrols in the region. I warn of danger While NATO has prepared for Russian threats, a new risk closer to home is now emerging: the UK’s and Europe’s first vertical launch spaceport at Saxa Vord, Shetland. Ironically, this site was once an RAF early warning and air defence base during the Cold War, bearing the motto Praemoneo de Periculis, or “I warn of danger”. Commercial space launches are still in their infancy, but recent incidents such as SpaceX’s launch failures – spreading debris across Florida and the Caribbean and grounding flights – and a Norwegian test rocket explosion highlight the risks. Saxa Vord itself attempted a rocket launch last August, resulting in an engine explosion. The international nature of space launches means that countries near Saxa Vord, especially Iceland, are directly in the path of up to 30 planned launches per year, four a month at peak, with ambitions to increase to 40 or 50 annually. These launches pose multiple risks to Iceland and the GIUK gap: Rockets may enter Icelandic airspace, with first-stage returns falling through Icelandic airspace and into territorial waters. Catastrophic failures could scatter debris, whilst hazardous chemicals from rocket propellants threaten marine ecosystems. Rerouted transatlantic flights of up to 76 a day, according to Icelandic air traffic control’s ‘anonymous’ response to the CAA’s Saxa Vord licence consultation. Even more importantly and less scrutinised – the presence of exclusion zones for launches could undermine NATO’s ability to patrol the gap effectively. Memorandum of Misunderstanding  These risks are partly managed by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the UK and Iceland in July 2021. The MoU mandates the closure of designated Icelandic sea and airspace areas before launches and outlines some procedures for debris recovery. However, while a handful of Icelandic officials are aware of the implications, the broader political and media discourse in both countries has yet to grapple with the full defence and military ramifications of the impact of such numbers of launches into NATO’s strategic sea and airspace. The current trajectory of UK space ambitions – and planned rocket launch from the UK – means the UK’s space ambitions could inadvertently undermine the very security framework that underpins Western interests in the North Atlantic and the Arctic. There is an urgent need for both the UK and Icelandic governments to reassess the risks from Saxa Vord, ensuring that existing bilateral agreements align the UK’s space programme with enduring geopolitical realities and the security needs of NATO and its allies. Saxa Vord has to be a success – but upon the present strategy security triumphs space whilst Iceland is developing its own space strategy – which might well consider how launch capability could be nationalised to give greater control over risk. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 03:30

— Tea Or Coffee?

 

at 5/21/25 12:45am

Tea Or Coffee? Today, May 21 marks International Tea Day.  With a global market valued at nearly $50 billion in 2023, tea is said to be the second most consumed beverage in the world.  As the United Nations notes, the tea industry provides "a major source of income and export earnings for some of the poorest countries and, thanks to its high labor requirements, generates numerous jobs, particularly in remote and economically disadvantaged areas." As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, Statista Consumer Insights surveyed 23 countries around the world to find out more about global tea drinking habits.  It found that while tea was a popular choice for many respondents, coffee proved to be consumed by a higher share of adults in almost every country surveyed, save for Turkey, Morocco and India.    You will find more infographics at Statista In the United States a comparatively lower share of people said they drank tea (46 percent) or coffee (53 percent) regularly, while soft drinks were more popular (56 percent). Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 02:45

— The Dark Side Of Denmark's Welfare State

 

at 5/21/25 12:00am

The Dark Side Of Denmark's Welfare State Authored by Alyssa Serebrenik via the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE), For the past three months, I’ve been living in Denmark, and I genuinely loved it. The streets are clean, the bike lanes immaculate, and the sense of public trust is unlike anything I’ve experienced in the United States. It’s no wonder people romanticize this place—”free” healthcare, university stipends, and a government that many believe works well. But the longer I stayed, the more I started noticing cracks. They weren’t always visible at first—more like patterns in conversation, stories from international friends, or the quiet discomfort that settled in certain moments. Coming from the United States, where diversity and individualism are more overtly woven into everyday life, I couldn’t help but notice how the very system that offers so much comfort in Denmark comes with a cost. The Ghetto Laws: Welfare-Driven Discrimination in Practice In 2018, Denmark introduced the “Ghettoplanen” (Ghetto Laws), later rebranded as the Parallel Society Laws. These policies target neighborhoods where more than half the residents are of “non-Western” background—a term that includes people from countries outside the EU and North America, even if they were born in Denmark or are second- or third-generation citizens. Children whose grandparents immigrated from places like Turkey, Lebanon, or Somalia are still counted as “non-Western” under the law. If a neighborhood meets enough criteria—low income, high unemployment, and a “non-Western” majority—it faces state intervention. This can include: Mandatory preschool from age one for all children of “non-Western” descent to instill Danish values, Harsher criminal penalties for offenses committed within these zones, Demolition of public housing and forced relocation of residents to “de-concentrate” immigrant populations, and Restrictions on who can move in, effectively capping the number of “non-Western” residents. The government claims these measures promote integration, but they operate more like demographic engineering. The message is clear: too much cultural difference in one place is unacceptable. To someone from the United States, this feels disturbingly familiar. The targeted housing policies, the coded language about “undesirable neighborhoods,” the use of state power to reshape communities—it all echoes redlining. The difference is that in Denmark, it isn’t a buried legacy. It’s law, in force today, designed to preserve cultural homogeneity. And while the justification is social cohesion, the result is a system that penalizes people for their ancestry. When Difference Becomes a Liability Welfare states like Denmark’s aren’t built on taxes alone—they rest on a shared cultural foundation. The social contract assumes a common understanding of how to live: shared values, similar behaviors, and a broadly uniform way of life. While that foundation can foster trust and cohesion, it also creates pressure to conform. Visible difference—whether in language, religion, dress, or worldview—can unsettle that cohesion. And instead of adapting to diversity, Denmark often manages it through policies and social norms that nudge immigrants and their children toward assimilation. In practice, it’s not just an invitation to integrate—it’s a demand. The result is a system where those who don’t—or can’t—fully assimilate face quiet exclusion. A nail artist from Nepal told me she’s struggled to make Danish friends despite living here for years. Friends of mine who are South Asian or Middle Eastern are routinely denied entry to clubs under vague excuses like “it’s full,” while white Danes enter with ease. These aren’t isolated experiences. According to the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights, migrants in Denmark report higher levels of discrimination than the EU average. And despite topping global rankings in welfare provision and institutional trust, Denmark scores near the bottom when it comes to multicultural integration. Much of this exclusion is hard to see. It’s not enforced through loud rhetoric or explicit laws, but through daily interactions, housing policy, and unspoken expectations. The discrimination is systemic, subtle, and often unacknowledged—and that silence makes it harder to confront. At the heart of this pressure to conform is Janteloven, a deeply rooted cultural code that discourages standing out or asserting individuality. While it promotes humility on the surface, it also reinforces social and cultural sameness. For many Danes, it creates cohesion; for outsiders, it can feel like an invisible wall. Combined with state policies that reward uniformity, Janteloven helps preserve a society that appears egalitarian but quietly resists pluralism. By contrast, American society—despite its flaws—embraces individualism. Cultural differences aren’t always seamless, but they’re often viewed as part of the national fabric rather than a threat to it. Integration happens through voluntary participation in schools, workplaces, and communities—not through a central authority that defines how to belong. This more open model is far messier. But it leaves space for people to forge identity and belonging on their own terms—not through conformity, but through freedom. Denmark’s Quiet Warning I came to Denmark expecting to see the appeal of a so-called “well-run” welfare state. And in many ways, I did. The country is efficient, safe, and comfortable for those who largely fit the mold. But I also saw how that same system—designed to provide security—can become rigid and exclusionary when difference is treated as disruption. The lesson is that when sameness becomes the price of inclusion, something essential is lost.  True equality isn’t created through top-down social engineering. It grows from the freedom to live differently—freely exchange ideas, build communities, and be accepted without having to blend in. *  *  * Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 02:00

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