Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Only 7% Of Voters Rank Data Centers As A Top Political Issue; New Survey Finds

 

at 9/23/26 1:40pm

Only 7% Of Voters Rank Data Centers As A Top Political Issue; New Survey Finds Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness, A new poll from the Rainey Center for Public Policy shows just 7 percent of registered voters view data centers as a top-three national political issue, confirming that fewer than 10 percent prioritize them at the federal level. The Washington Examiner reports that the survey of 1,004 registered voters found that found that national concern over data centers remains low with artificial intelligence itself drawing just 12 percent support as a top issue. The poll was conducted between Sept. 10 and 14, after former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon quit his role and warned of the existential threat of AI, sparking a nationwide conversation about AI regulation. Voters have a clear ask: build it right. 71% support requiring data-center operators to sign community benefits agreements - covering things like jobs, tax revenue, and grid upgrades - before construction begins. Read our September Policy Survey: Summary of Findings - link in... pic.twitter.com/gb1O7nDMUx — Rainey Center (@RaineyCenter) September 20, 2026 Fifty-seven percent of survey respondents listed "grocery prices, gas and household utilities" as the most salient issue, followed by 30 percent listing jobs and the economy, and 20 percent listing affordable housing. The poll showed AI as the 13th-most salient issue, directly following energy costs and transgender issues in schools and sports, with data centers being built in communities coming in as the 15th-most salient issue, behind cybersecurity. According to PBS Newshour , while voters do not rank data centers high on national political agendas, opposition spikes dramatically when facilities are planned nearby. Fifrt-eight percent of voters say new tech data centers have a mostly negative effect on the country and 65 percent of voters oppose building these facilities in their own communities. Meanwhile 25 percent of voters say they support local data center construction. The polling results follow a week of federal and state lawmakers debating how and whether to proceed with additional AI regulations in the face of calls for guardrails on their own industry from frontier AI lab leaders , according to the Washington Examiner. When questioned on what specifically should be the top three priorities for lawmakers on data centers and AI, 48 percent of survey respondents responded "holding AI companies liable for harms," while 38 percent answered that "data centers pay their own electricity." National leaders remain largely divided on the issue, with President Donald Trump calling on people to ignore the calls for new guardrails because of the United States' AI race with China. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 15:40

— 'Mr.Gold' Warns Higher Rates Will Blow Everything Up

 

at 9/23/26 1:05pm

'Mr.Gold' Warns Higher Rates Will Blow Everything Up Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com, Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) has warned for years about what happens in the end when a debt bubble pops.  Mr. Gold explains, “This bubble is like any other bubble in mankind’s history..." "  In the 1920s, credit was extremely easy.  When credit tightened, it was the wealth effect in reverse.  We saw this again in the early 1970s.  We saw this again in the 1987 crash.  Interest rates went from 7% to over 10% . . . and that bubble popped.  We had the emerging market debt problem back in the early 1990s, Long Term Capital in 1998, the Dot Com bubble in 2000, the 2007-2008 Great Financial Crisis, and all you have to do is look at a chart of bond yields and you’ll see that each time yields spiked, those bubbles popped.  Right now, interest rates are spiking, and this is the biggest bubble.  This is the everything bubble.  Everything is in a bubble.  The only things that are not in a bubble are gold and silver because they are real money.  I think gold and silver are reflecting the risk of the debt structure coming down.  From a global standpoint, countries are moving away from the dollar.   They don’t want to be trapped in the dollar system.  The dollar is the world reserve currency that is issued by an insolvent bankrupt entity.  Higher rates, that’s what is going to blow everything up, higher rates.” Mr. Gold says the rates can fall back down in a hurry if the economy starts to skid.  Mr. Gold also says the so-called “reset” you have been hearing about for years is real.  It cannot be stopped, but it is an unfolding process right up until the very end.  Holter says: “The reset is not a pushed button until the very, very end.  That very, very end is going to be a weekend where you go to bed Friday and things look normal, and on Monday morning, the whole world will have changed. . .. Rising interest rated have happened hundreds of times in history.  That is not the reset.  The reset is when those rising rates affect the existing debt in the system, and that debt fails and collapses.  Of course, you can add in derivatives, and the reset is really a wipeout of wealth.  It’s the wipeout of the population’s wealth.  Along with that goes the ‘Great Taking.’  They started putting these laws on the books in 2014 knowing there was going to be a huge rug pull at some point.  They made it legal for brokers, banks and insurance companies to take client assets . . . to save the corporations.  What does that do to the population?  The population becomes penniless.  If you are not protecting yourself, you are going to get swept up in the wave of the Great Reset.” Holter says the Deep State wants total control, which is why there is a big push to go all digital.  Holter says buying gold and silver is not about making money but protecting purchasing power and a defense against the Great Reset.  Holter says, “If you lose 50%, you have to make 100% to get back to break even.  This is not going to be a time that you lose 50% and then things will start going back up again..." "  Because of the debt all over the world, when the debt breaks, the financial system is going to break.  If you have counterparties between you and your capitol, you are going to lose your capitol.  People ask, how much do I put into gold and silver, and I say put in what you don’t want to lose.  Gold and silver are the only money on the planet that cannot bankrupt in a world that is bankrupting.  If you had this (gold) mindset since 2000, you are way ahead of the pack compared to the S&P or the DOW.  There was zero default risk.  When you bought gold, you got the biggest return and took the lowest risk.” There is much more in the 44-minute interview. Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as he warns of the Great Reset and the Great Taking that will come with it for 9.22.26. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 15:05

— "This Nor'easter Is Going To Be An Ordeal"

 

at 9/23/26 12:45pm

"This Nor'easter Is Going To Be An Ordeal" The US East Coast has avoided any tropical development so far this year, but a developing nor'easter in the Atlantic just off the North Carolina and Virginia coast could still deliver hurricane-force winds and heavy rain, with the greatest impacts expected in the Northeast later this week and into the weekend.  "Oh, this Nor'easter is going to be an ordeal. This storm will be a monster and will be lashing the coast for several days. Thank your lucky stars this isn't January because it would be the most epic blizzard," meteorologist Ryan Maue wrote on X, adding, "Maybe it's a harbinger of 'bomb cyclones' to come this winter?" Oh, this Nor'easter is going to be an ordeal. This storm will be a monster and will be lashing the coast for several days. Thank your lucky stars this isn't January because it would be the most epic blizzard. Maybe it's a harbinger of "bomb cyclones" to come this winter? pic.twitter.com/gxOADbTznO — Ryan Maue (@RyanWeather) September 22, 2026 The nor'easter formed earlier today off North Carolina and Virginia and is forecast to strengthen as it moves north along the coast, potentially bringing severe weather to coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Nor’easter: brace for 50 mph wind gusts and 15 ft waves! ? It's going to be a rough ride for the East Coast. The storm's worst will probably lash the corridor from New York to Boston this weekend, with coastal flooding a primary concern because of high tides and strong winds. pic.twitter.com/BCAjWa9x25 — Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 23, 2026 "This will be a long-duration storm for many areas along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, with impacts beginning along the central Atlantic coast at midweek, spreading to New England on Friday and lasting through the weekend in some areas," AccuWeather wrote in a report.  ⚠️??️ Coastal Flood Warnings & Advisories are in effect for most of our tidal areas through Thursday night or Friday to highlight the widespread minor to moderate tidal flooding expected at high tides. Northeast winds gusting up to 50 mph along the coast through Thursday. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/njQ5fbJsfK — NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) September 23, 2026 On Saturday, the worst of the storm is expected across southeastern New England, particularly Massachusetts. Local outlet NBC Boston warns that the Boston metro could expect  5 to 8 inches of rain between Friday and Sunday, while Cape Cod could see conditions on par with a tropical storm.  "If the low shifts close to Boston, this becomes a massive event with 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, heavy rainfall, major storm surge and significant disruptions to Boston Harbor and the Massachusetts coastline," Fox Weather wrote in a separate report.  [Potential Coastal Storm Fri-Sun] After a dry week we are tracking an early season nor'easter Friday to Sunday bringing rain, strong to damaging wind gusts, as well as coastal flooding/beach erosion. pic.twitter.com/uSpZFiUx8c — NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) September 23, 2026 "The nor'easter could take on some characteristics of a tropical storm," AccuWeather warned.  Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 14:45

— China's Quad-G Plan For Global Hegemony Involves The UN And AI

 

at 9/23/26 12:25pm

China's Quad-G Plan For Global Hegemony Involves The UN And AI Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times, The regime in China denies that it has plans for "hegemony or expansion," but its history - from the peasant land seizures of the 1920s to claims on the entire South China Sea today - is replete with land grabs and territorial expansion. Starting in 2021 with its first of four global initiatives, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has used ideas for such initiatives and Beijing-led international organizations as engines to extend its expansion toward its long-held goal of global hegemony. The CCP's four global initiatives are ostensibly related to development, security, civilization, and governance. They are meant to seem palatable to the international community while integrating the United Nations and other forms of global governance into the CCP's own system, with itself in the lead. The initiatives are currently expanding and strengthening. On Sept. 12, China expanded the digital element of its Global Development Initiative (GDI) by inviting additional countries to join its World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). The organization was founded in July and is headquartered in Shanghai. CCP leader Xi Jinping gave the keynote speech at the event. He called for "true multilateralism," which analysts interpret as a justification for a parallel global order with Beijing in the lead. WAICO already has approximately 30 member countries, including Russia and Iran. It serves as a key economic and intelligence initiative led by Beijing to expand the CCP's global influence by promoting China's AI software and cloud infrastructure. The more countries use China's AI assets, the more Beijing's authoritarian approach to AI is normalized, and the more opportunities for global espionage and influence open up for China's military and intelligence agencies. More generally, the GDI uses a wedge strategy to increase the CCP's influence in countries by aligning development aid with the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The resulting influence can then be expanded through larger Belt and Road Initiative projects such as ports, trains, roads, pipelines, and digital infrastructure. This broader penetration turns countries toward joining the BRICS group, originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and now including Iran, among others. The group is economically dominated by Beijing, which expects BRICS countries to follow the CCP's lead on relatively anodyne statements such as Middle East peace, as well as on more substantial international projects such as AI development and efforts to shift world trade away from the U.S. dollar. Xi has personally invited BRICS countries to join WAICO. The Global Security Initiative (GSI) overlays China's preexisting military partnerships, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with the vision of a "common" security led by the CCP. The Beijing Xiangshan Security Forum, a key vehicle for extending the GSI to influential international military stakeholders, took place from Sept. 15 to Sept. 17. One subject during the forum was reportedly "the impact of AI on future warfare." The threat posed by the GSI and its networking with military and economic partners is real and current. Iran supports the GSI and is a member of the SCO. On Sept. 12, news broke that Chinese entities, most likely with the approval of the CCP, provided Iran with satellite images of U.S. forces in Jordan. Those images likely assisted Iran's missile attack that killed three U.S. troops in July. China has also provided Iran with dual-use components and fuel precursors for its missile and armed drone technologies used against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine. Other than U.S. sanctions against a few Chinese companies, there were few repercussions imposed on the regime in China for providing Iran with dual-use items and satellite intelligence during a war. This signals to Beijing that it can provide the same to other SCO and BRICS countries in the future simply by changing the names and addresses of the Chinese entities involved. Afghanistan, which hosts al-Qaeda terrorists, is an observer nation in the SCO and could also receive Chinese intelligence or equipment for use against the United States, Pakistan, or India. Beijing has long had a positive relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan, which has suppressed non-Pashtun ethnicities in the country. This accords with Beijing's Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), which claims to create a more pluralistic world in part through supporting the sovereignty of dictators even as they stifle free markets, speech, and diversity within their own countries. When Xi announced the GCI in 2023, he hypocritically said: "We advocate the common values of humanity. Peace, development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom are the common aspirations of all peoples. Countries need to keep an open mind in appreciating the perceptions of values by different civilizations, and refrain from imposing their own values or models on others and from stoking ideological confrontation." The hypocrisy of this position is evident because then and now, Xi's regime militarily threatens democratic Taiwan; steals maritime territory from the Philippines, Vietnam, and other South China Sea claimants; takes Himalayan territory from India by force; and destroys the freedoms of religious minorities like the Uyghurs, Christians, and Falun Gong within China. Now, with the CCP's four global initiatives, this violent illiberality threatens to scale globally. Xi unveiled his Global Governance Initiative (GGI) last September at an SCO meeting in Tianjin. It promotes international law with the CCP in the lead and a coordinating function for the three prior initiatives. According to Chinese state media, "Viewed as a unified framework, the four initiatives form a 'four-in-one' interactive structure: development as the foundation, security as the guarantee, civilization as the bond, and governance as the coordinating mechanism - all serving the overarching objective of building a community with a shared future for humanity." The CCP's "community with a shared future for humanity" sounds acceptable on first blush but can be directly compared to Imperial Japan's "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" in that both used anti-colonial rhetoric and regional economic integration to try and replace "Western hegemony" with an illiberal hegemony of its own making, led by an authoritarian and territorially aggressive power. What could be called the CCP's Quad-G Plan for global hegemony is dangerous to free markets, human rights, and democracy. The CCP is a totalitarian political party attempting to use the large economy of China, its diplomats, an international AI norms-setting body, and an already-existing international institutional structure at the United Nations and elsewhere as the power and tracks for moving an established U.S.-led international system with true sovereignty for members toward a global and illiberal hegemony with Beijing at the center. The CCP's Quad-G approach raises questions about whether U.S. national security and the safety of democracies everywhere necessitate significantly reducing the CCP's influence at the United Nations and other international organizations, as well as expanding sanctions from targeting a few Chinese entities to targeting China as a whole. Options at the U.N. include canceling the visas of China's U.N. diplomats, as was done to Iranian diplomats in 2014 and 2020, to working to return China's seat at the forum to democratic Taiwan. Though Taiwan does not currently propose this, other more powerful countries and groupings, including the United States, the European Union, and the G7 countries, should consider encouraging this idea to more effectively counter the CCP. The more democratic countries legitimize the CCP by engaging with it diplomatically, the more latitude it has to influence other countries to depend on its financing, join CCP-led international partnerships, and fall in line with Beijing's proposals to international organizations. This acclimates them and others to further accept the CCP's leadership and its preferred authoritarian forms of global governance, with Beijing at the center. We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 14:25

— Kalshi's $5,499 Question: Wash Trading, Or A Subsidized Volume Machine?

 

at 9/23/26 12:05pm

Kalshi's $5,499 Question: Wash Trading, Or A Subsidized Volume Machine? Kalshi's Ethereum perpetual futures contract has a favorite trade size, and it's $5,499. A CoinDesk analysis published Monday pulled 3,450 trades in the contract, a futures product with no expiry that tracks the spot price of ether, from 23 one-hour windows between September 17 and 20. Of those, 1,406 landed within $2 of $5,499. That's $7.7 million of the $13.5 million sampled, or 57% of the dollar volume. Bitcoin perpetuals showed the same thing with different numbers: trades near $2,500 and $5,000 made up 54% of the $8.5 million sampled. Going back to June 19, CoinDesk found a recurring size on 43 of 46 sampled days, with the magic number migrating from $4,999 to $9,999 to $3,999, $4,499 and $5,499. The fight started when Beni, a pseudonymous quant and co-founder of Stealth Neolab, posted that Kalshi's ether perp was printing $539 million of 24-hour volume against $3.1 million of open interest, a ratio of 174 to one, and called the repeating $5,500 prints "undeniable proof" of wash trading. He also waved around an Artemis chart of prediction-market share, which is a different product from the perps, a mistake Kalshi's crypto chief was happy to point out. Hey Beni, Seems like a bunch of wires got crossed here so I just wanted to set the record straight. Your original claim was that Kalshi’s crypto prediction market volume was fake. The chart from Artemis shows prediction market volume share, not perps. We don’t do rebates for… https://t.co/RudV9qzDNn pic.twitter.com/QSIpBu0Cm5 — IcoBeast.eth?? (@icobeast) September 20, 2026 Kalshi's rebuttal the next day was interesting. The exchange says the fixed-size prints come from one market maker resting orders of a set size and getting picked off by "many takers." Its own numbers show the takers winning; in one hypothetical it walks through, the aggressors clear about $98,000. Self-trades are blocked at the matching engine, it runs surveillance for pre-arranged trades, and it has "seen no evidence of collusion or wash trades." Take all of that at face value and Kalshi has still described a market maker that loses money on every fill and keeps quoting anyway. The rebuttal explains why. Its example liquidity deal pays a firm $100,000 a month to keep bids and offers of at least $5,000 resting within 0.1% of each other, 95% of every hour. The money is for being on the book. A quote of exactly $5,000, or $5,499, is what a contract written that way produces. The Subsidy Stack Which raises the question Kalshi's rebuttal doesn't ask of itself: why does the market maker keep doing this? The answer is that Kalshi pays it to, through three separate programs. The resting-liquidity stipend is the first. The second is a fee rebate. A June 24 filing with the CFTC set up a temporary program that hands self-clearing members back all of their net maker and taker fees on perps each month, with two guardrails: no double-paying incentives on the same volume, and no trade may end up net-negative in fees once the maker and taker sides are combined. Free trading for the biggest accounts, but not paid trading. The third would go further. A September 2 filing cuts the taker fee on crypto perps to 0.3 basis points, or 0.003%, and pays the maker a net rebate of the same 0.3 basis points. The filing makes that live "upon Exchange notice, but not earlier than 5:00 PM ET on September 16, 2026." Kalshi says the notice hasn't gone out and the program isn't running, so it can't be what generated the September 17-20 tape. Nobody outside Kalshi can currently check that. Kalshi also runs a retail-facing Volume Incentive Program that splits a cashback pool by each trader's share of volume during reward periods. Market makers with existing agreements are excluded. Whether it touched the disputed markets isn't disclosed. Put together, the stipend pays one side to post the $5,499 quote and the fee rebate makes it free for the other side to hit it. The repeating number is the incentive structure working as written. The CFTC Wrote The Memo Five Weeks Early On August 12 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight put out a staff advisory, Letter 26-23, whose stated focus is "incentive programs established in connection with prediction markets." It warns that "volume-based rewards with steep tiers or threshold bonuses can encourage participants to trade solely to reach volume targets, heightening risks of wash-trading, pre-arranged trading," and, separately, that "market-maker programs that guarantee net profits or cover participant losses through stipends and rebates may incentivize artificial strategies." Exchanges are told to build surveillance around the specific behavior each program invites. The advisory names no exchange and finds nothing against anyone. Kalshi's response, that CME, Cboe and NYSE all pay for liquidity too, is true and beside the point.  Real Trades, Fake Signal Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Barnard College, published the cleanest account of the mechanism on Wednesday - and it doesn't necessarily point to cheating. In his reading, "the volume rewards paid by Kalshi to the market maker are flowing in part to aggressive traders who are able to move before stale orders can be cancelled." The fee refund makes it worse, because refunding the taker's fee "aggravates the adverse selection problem faced by liquidity providers." His verdict: "By channeling funds to aggressive low latency traders through the market makers, the exchange is undoing the liquidity provision that the rewards were meant to boost." Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 14:05

— More US Homebuyers Apply For Riskier Mortgages As Interest Rates Top 7%

 

at 9/23/26 11:45am

More US Homebuyers Apply For Riskier Mortgages As Interest Rates Top 7% Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times, Higher interest rates pushed prospective homebuyers toward riskier mortgages last week, new industry data show. The total volume of mortgage applications declined almost 2 percent for the week ending Sept. 18, according to a report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Sept. 23. This represented the third consecutive weekly drop. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 1 percent and were down 11 percent from the same time a year ago. Refinancing applications also fell to their lowest levels since February 2025, down 3 percent monthly, and were 62 percent lower year over year. "Applications for both refinance and purchase loans declined further last week, noting that the comparison is to the week that included the Labor Day holiday," Mike Fratantoni, the group's senior vice president and chief economist, said in a news release. Last week's decline aligned with the sharp increase in interest rates. Because fixed-rate mortgage costs have accelerated in recent weeks, borrowers sought riskier adjustable-rate mortgages - also known as ARMs - Fratantoni added. "With fixed rates much higher, more borrowers opted for ARMs, with the ARM share reaching 9.8%, as rates for 5/1 ARMs were more than a percentage point lower than those for fixed rate loans," he said in a statement. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 7.12 percent, from 6.97 percent - the highest since May 2024. Mortgage rates have increased by more than 100 basis points since the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran in late February. The conflict, approaching the seven-month mark, has sent Treasury bond yields surging. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached 5 percent again midweek, up from 3.96 percent before the war in Iran began. The mortgage market generally tracks government bond yields, resulting in higher borrowing costs for prospective buyers. ARMs start with a lower fixed rate for three to ten years, then change every six months or annually based on market conditions. This product saves borrowers money upfront but can swing higher or lower based on benchmark rates. Mortgage rates have ticked up slightly so far this week. As of Sept. 22, the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.17 percent, according to Mortgage News Daily. Fueling Interest Rates Global energy markets and inflation data have been the driving forces behind interest rates and will determine the Federal Reserve's next policy decision, says Jeff DerGurahian, head economist at loanDepot. "For now, rates appear to be standing at a fork in the road. Softer inflation and lower oil prices could provide relief, while continued energy pressure could keep mortgage rates near or above 7%," DerGurahian said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. Crude prices have fallen sharply this week, with U.S. oil down about 10 percent to around $91 per barrel. Brent, the international benchmark, returned above $100 midweek. As of Sept. 22, the national average for a gallon of diesel has risen to $6.52, according to the American Automobile Association. Meanwhile, the next major inflation report will be August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's go-to inflation measure. After that, the September consumer price index report will be released in mid-October. The Cleveland Fed projects annual headline consumer inflation will jump to 3.5 percent, but core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, will hold steady at 2.4 percent. Until then, investors are leaning toward another quarter-point rate hike at the October Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting after the Fed followed through last week on the first increase to the benchmark federal funds rate since July 2023. "Those expectations are not set in stone though," DerGurahian said. "If oil prices move lower or the September core inflation reading comes in softer than expected, the October hike could be pushed further out. Continued improvement could even cause markets to remove one of the three future hikes currently priced in." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold the next two-day meeting on Oct. 27 and 28. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:45

— US Diesel Craters, EU Prices Skyrocket As Politico Reports White House Preparing Plan For 90-Day Export Ban

 

at 9/23/26 11:40am

US Diesel Craters, EU Prices Skyrocket As Politico Reports White House Preparing Plan For 90-Day Export Ban Summary:  New Politico Report Suggests White House Preparing For Diesel Export Ban "Definitely Doesn't Work": U.S. Energy Sec Rejects Diesel Export Ban, Risks Creating Bigger Supply-Squeeze Later Politico Reports White House Prepares Plan For 90-Day Diesel Exports Ban Diesel is certainly top of mind in the White House as a global refining crisis has sent prices at the pump for the industrial fuel to record-high levels, so high that Apollo's chief economist, Torsten Slok, warned earlier that it could spark a core inflation shock. Policy maneuvering by the White House is limited, and what has been floated by Trump and some top Republicans is a diesel export ban, while top desks on Wall Street have warned that it's a terrible idea and could exacerbate prices around the world. Earlier, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was at odds with Trump's call for a diesel export ban; Wright said, "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work." Around lunchtime in New York, a new Politico report said the White House was preparing a potential 90-day ban on diesel exports ahead of November's midterm elections. The report stated that the proposal remains under discussion, with its legal framework unresolved. Politico cited five people familiar with the talks. "What has overpowered cooler heads [in the White House] is the absolutely, sky-is-falling, we-have-to-do-something concern about prices at the pump" faction, said this person, who was granted anonymity to discuss conversations with White House officials. "That camp has been swept aside by the political camp, which says, 'dammit, something has to happen.'" AAA Diesel v. Gas at pump A White House official commented on the report, calling it "another fake news story from Politico." The immediate price action in the fuel markets was: US DIESEL FUTURES SINK MORE THAN 7% TO INTRADAY LOW EUROPEAN DIESEL FUTURES SURGE OVER 7% TO SESSION HIGH Here's what happened: Last week, Barclays refining and midstream analyst Theresa Chen warned clients that a proposed U.S. diesel export ban would be "detrimental to the US refining complex and unlikely to provide the intended price relief." Chen outlined one major problem: keeping diesel inside the country does not guarantee it can reach gas pumps. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari told clients the global refining system will be stretched through 2027, with diesel and gas prices expected to remain elevated. The latest EIA data (2025) shows that Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. diesel, followed by Chile, Brazil, the Netherlands, and the UK. Mexico: ~220,000 b/d (17% of total distillate exports). Still #1 but down ~18% from 2024. Mexico imports large volumes of U.S. refined products (gasoline and diesel) while sending heavier crude north. Chile: Second-largest destination; volumes rose ~15–16k b/d from 2024. Brazil: ~103,000 b/d (third). This is well below earlier peaks near 200k b/d; Brazil has taken more discounted Russian barrels since 2022 sanctions redirected Russian diesel away from Europe. Netherlands: ~98,000 b/d (major European trading hub/re-export point). United Kingdom: ~89,000 b/d (record annual average). A case of resource nationalism? Or is the Politico report "another fake news story," as a White House source cited in the report suggests? "Definitely Doesn't Work": U.S. Energy Sec Rejects Diesel Export Ban, Risks Creating Bigger Supply-Squeeze Later President Trump will not be pleased... U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has publicly opposed calls for a ban on U.S. diesel exports, arguing on Wednesday that the measure would backfire by increasing gasoline and jet fuel prices. "The blunt ​tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't ‌work," ⁠Wright said at an event in New York, as reported by Reuters. Wright said restricting exports would leave refiners with excess diesel inventories, forcing them to cut refinery output. Lower refinery runs, he warned, would tighten supplies of other fuels, ultimately driving up costs for consumers and businesses. His comments put him at odds with President Trump, who signaled support for the idea on Tuesday as diesel prices surge to record highs in the U.S. and Europe (and Treasury Secretary Bessent has been assigned to see "if it's feasible." Trump's comments already sent European pries for the fuel surging. With flows from the region's top supplier at risk, Bloomberg reports that European diesel's premium to Brent crude jumped to more than $95 a barrel on Wednesday, a record in Bloomberg data going back to 2011. Known as crack spread, the indicator has been keenly watched by central bankers as they seek to tame inflation. The equivalent measure in the U.S., meanwhile, weakened. Trump's threat comes as Europe is already grappling with the loss of diesel shipments from the Middle East, and Russian export curbs have tightened the global fuel market further. The US has become Europe's main overseas supplier, with American exports of the workhorse fuel surging to a weekly record near 2 million barrels a day last month. A key U.S. oil industry group cautioned against the move, saying it could lower American fuel production and damage the global economy. Of the 8 million barrels of diesel traded globally by sea each day, the U.S. supplies about 1.5 million of them - about 20%. An export ban would remove the single largest source of global diesel from the market, and the consequences could be catastrophic. "Restricting exports is not a solution to high prices," the American Petroleum Institute says. "Removing US diesel from the market could instead result in reduced refinery runs, global economic damage and even higher US prices." Indeed, as Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball, write this morning,while The White House may be able to engineer a brief drop in U.S. diesel prices by limiting exports, it risks creating a bigger supply problem down the road. With distillate stocks at seasonally record lows... ...the appeal is obvious with U.S. diesel above $6.50 a gallon... But a broad curb could strand as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, roughly 29% of U.S. diesel output. If enacted, Ball writes, the effects would be uneven across the U.S. A surplus would build on the Gulf Coast, while pipeline, shipping and fuel-specification constraints limit how easily those barrels can reach tighter East and West Coast markets. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Gulf Coast storage could only absorb about three weeks of net diesel exports before constraints bite. The global impact would be worse. Kpler argues there is no real replacement for U.S. export volumes, leaving Latin America and Northwest Europe particularly exposed and increasing competition for Indian barrels. China could compound the squeeze as domestic inventories fall and the risk of renewed export curbs rises. The response from refiners would create a negative feedback loop. If trapped barrels crush margins, refiners are incentivized to cut runs and undertake maintenance. S&P Global Energy estimates crude runs might need to fall by nearly 2 million barrels a day - more than 10% of the current production level - to clear the surplus. That is the asymmetry: lower U.S. diesel prices first, tighter global product markets follow, and potentially less U.S. fuel supply later. The more aggressive the restriction, the greater the risk that today's price relief becomes tomorrow's supply problem. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:40

— Bonds Crash Most Since Liberation Day After Catastrophic 5Y Auction; 2nd Biggest Tail On Record

 

at 9/23/26 11:31am

Bonds Crash Most Since Liberation Day After Catastrophic 5Y Auction; 2nd Biggest Tail On Record Coming into today's 5Y auction, the bond market was collapsing, with yields across the curve soaring but especially the 5Y exploding a crazy 15bps heading into today's auction (of 5 Year treasuries), a massive concession which we thought would lead to "lots of demand" for today's offering.  *TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD RISES 15 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.99% At least there will be lots of demand for paper in today's 5Y auction — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2026 Boy, were we wrong: moments ago the Treasury published results from today's auction and there were absolutely disastrous. The sale of $70 billion priced at the first 5%+ yield since 2007, 5.033% to be specific (which means the first 5% cash coupon for today's buyers in 19 years), up from 4.391%. But the kicker is that the When Issued traded at 5.001%, meaning the auction tailed by a massive 3.1bps, which is the 2nd highest tail on record. The bid to cover was ugly: down to 2.212 from 2.371, and the lowest since December 2018.  The internals were even worse: Indirects plunged to 54.31% from 61.51%, the lowest since the depths of covid, in March 2020. And withj Directs inexplicably jumping to 29.92%, the highest since December '25, Dealers were left holding 15.8% of the auction, the most since May 2024. Overall this was a horrific auction, where demand simply was not there contrary to what the When Issued indicated, and the results sparked a fresh rout acorss the curve, with the 10Y last trading just shy of 5.13% in what is shaping up as the worst day for the bond market since Liberation Day. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:31

— CFTC Chair Pushes Tokenization As SEC Opens Door To Onchain Stocks

 

at 9/23/26 11:00am

CFTC Chair Pushes Tokenization As SEC Opens Door To Onchain Stocks Authored by Ezra Reguerra via Cointelegraph, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig said financial markets should prepare for "mass tokenization" as regulators adapt existing frameworks for blockchain, artificial intelligence and onchain markets. In remarks delivered Tuesday at the US Treasury Market Conference, Selig said tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) could become the foundation of a more efficient financial system, enabling near-instant settlement and real-time collateral movement between clearinghouses, intermediaries and users. "Just as the transition from hand signals to electronic trading advanced our financial system, I believe tokenization can do the same for all asset classes," Selig said, adding that the CFTC would pursue principles-based rules as tokenization and onchain finance evolve. Selig said in August that the CFTC would move ahead with crypto rules under its existing authority if Congress did not pass the CLARITY Act. The Senate failed to advance the bill on Sept. 15. On Sept. 17, the CFTC submitted a regulatory action covering crypto asset transactions and markets for White House review. The filing is still at the "prerule" stage and does not detail the planned regulations. SEC also moves to bring markets onchain Officials at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also promoted the development of tokenized markets. In a Bloomberg TV interview, the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets Director Jamie Selway said that tokenization and crypto have recently become politicized but are "not naturally a politicized function." Selway said US success in developing the markets should receive bipartisan support. On Sept. 17, the SEC granted a temporary "Innovation Exemption" for tokenized US stock trading. The exemption lets certain platforms trade digital versions of US-listed stocks under certain conditions. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said in February that such an exemption could facilitate onchain trading while regulators developed longer-term rules. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 13:00

— Brazil's Socialist Lula Cries 'Foreign Interference' At UN As Bolsonaro Ties Him In Runoff Polls

 

at 9/23/26 10:40am

Brazil's Socialist Lula Cries 'Foreign Interference' At UN As Bolsonaro Ties Him In Runoff Polls "Flávio Bolsonaro has moved marginally ahead of Lula in a potential run-off, with the race effectively tied," Daniel Lavarda, HSBC's head of Brazil macroeconomic research, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.  Lavarda said, "Worsening approval ratings weigh on Lula's prospects, reducing probability of re-election to 18% (per to our model)," adding, "With the race tied up, the outcome will hinge on late-campaign developments, turnout and ability to mobilize voters."  Lavarda's latest note on the Brazilian election continues the theme that the right-wing challenger, Bolsonaro, has a real chance of defeating the unhinged socialist, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. That theme largely began when Polymarket's election odds flipped to a Bolsonaro lead on September 10. Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)Now, the Polymarket bet, with nearly $154 million traded, shows Bolsonaro leading at 59% versus Lula's 41%. On Tuesday at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Lula cried foul, saying that countries shouldn't interfere in the internal affairs of other nations. "We will not allow the enemies of democracy, whether domestic or foreign, to undermine popular will. Brazilian democracy belongs to Brazilians. Brazil will continue to be a sovereign country," Lula said. "Nobody will turn us away from this path." Meanwhile ...  Lula's speech comes as the prospect of a Bolsonaro win has shifted foreign capital flows back to Brazil. Goldman analysts found, after surveying 70 global investors, that EWZ, the US-listed Brazil equity ETF, could be set up for a 20% surge if the right-wing candidate wins. Our technical analysts at The Market Ear see far greater upside in Brazilian stocks if a Bolsonaro win materializes early next month: Brazil's Next Big Squeeze: Up To 54% Upside A Bolsonaro win would cement a rightward shift across much of South America as millions reject nation-killing progressive experiments. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 12:40

— Market Warning Signs And The 'Perfect' Hedge

 

at 9/23/26 10:20am

Market Warning Signs And The 'Perfect' Hedge Via Crescat Capital, We showed in prior letters that the US stock market has recently reached all-time high valuations across a variety of dimensions. Now, the market is flashing warning signals of a potential major market top based on a variety of divergent technical and cross-market indicators. We show four of these in this letter: New 52-week Highs vs. Lows Chart Normally, when a stock market index moves up and down, the underlying stocks reaching new 52-week highs minus those hitting new 52-week lows go up and down, in sync. One can see that relationship most of the time in the NASDAQ Composite chart below over the last year. Recently, however, it’s been the opposite. This index just closed at a marginal new all-time high, while the underlying stocks hitting new lows have exceeded those hitting new highs for 17 days straight. Weak, non-confirming market internals can signal a major market top. In this case, a narrow group of large stocks has driven the overall index return to new highs without confirmation from its underlying components. Widening CCC vs. BBB Credit Spreads Credit markets are generally quicker to pick up on deteriorating corporate cash flows than equity markets. While the S&P 500 Index has been hitting new all-time highs over the past six months, US triple-C credit spreads relative to triple-B have widened significantly over the same time, another non-confirming divergence, which we show in the chart below. Similar warning signals of a pending stock market downturn from this indicator can be seen in the same chart historically: A divergence in credit spreads vs. the 2000 tech bubble and stock market top; Trends and levels consistent with the very beginning of the last two major stock market meltdowns and recessions: the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 Covid recession; and Deterioration consistent with the 2022 bear market. Recent Negative Correlation of the Advance-Decline Line vs. S&P 500 The advance-decline line is a plot of the cumulative sum of daily differences between the number of issues advancing and those declining for a given market index. In capitalization-weighted stock indices, such as the S&P 500, price changes of larger market-cap stocks will have larger effects on index returns. The advance-decline line can provide insight regarding the number of individual stocks participating in a market rally or decline. Divergence occurs when the underlying index moves in one direction and the advance-decline line for that index moves in the opposite direction. When the advance-decline line is moving down while the underlying index pushes higher, one begins to question the true health and direction of the market. Below is a chart showing the rolling 50-day correlation between the S&P 500 and its cumulative advance-decline line. Over 2026, we have seen their relationship weaken substantially and even turn negative. The last time we saw such divergence was during the peak of the Dotcom bubble. S&P 500 Deterioration of Members Trading Above 200-day Moving Average The percent of members in the S&P 500 trading above their 200-day averages has plunged over the past month, as we show in the chart below, even as the index itself has remained relatively flat, near all-time highs. This divergence points towards a breakdown in market breadth despite apparent top-line stability. Again, performance is becoming increasingly concentrated among a small group of megacaps. As one can see in the chart, a similar setup emerged in the lead-up to Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025), where technicals began to weaken before the broad market selloff. Selling pressure and risk reduction were already building beneath the surface ahead of the tariff announcement. The tariff announcement was the spark that lit the fire. The Perfect Hedge What do we see as the perfect hedge for today’s stock market? While no hedge is perfect, to us it means positioning for what we believe offers the strongest potential risk-adjusted outperformance, or alpha, relative to the S&P 500. Today, we believe that opportunity is in gold. More specifically, we see even greater alpha potential in Crescat’s diversified activist precious and critical metals exploration strategy. Junior mining exploration carries operational risks and market volatility, but we believe it offers substantially better value and long-term growth potential than gold itself. That is where our precious metals hedge funds are focused. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 12:20

— Spain Clears Way For US Extradition Case Against Cox Media Heir Turned Communist Financier

 

at 9/23/26 9:20am

Spain Clears Way For US Extradition Case Against Cox Media Heir Turned Communist Financier The Spanish government has begun a process that could soon lead to the US extradition of Jim "Fergie" Chambers, the communist centimillionaire and heir to the massive Cox media fortune. Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Chambers moved a step closer to extradition to the US after Spain's Cabinet allowed the case to proceed to court. Chambers has been detained since his July 10 arrest in Ibiza and is wanted by the US on money laundering, riot and riot conspiracy charges linked to 2023 pro-Palestinian demonstrations and transfers to a company in Tunisia, where he previously lived. Government spokeswoman Elma Saiz confirmed to the outlet that Spanish courts would now review the request. If judges approve extradition, the final decision returns to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Cabinet. We profiled Chambers in July, shortly after he was arrested, and noted that he was a major funder of America's radical left and had been described by pro-Palestinian activist Laith Marouf as "the new Soros." Chambers founded the Babochki Collective and is a major backer of Stop Cop City, Palestine Action US (later renamed Unity of Fields), and related legal defense efforts. He allegedly funded bail, legal fees, and direct-action campaigns targeting police-training projects and Israeli-linked defense firms, while also building networks with far-left activists. A communist and a convert to Islam from New York, Chambers allegedly used his $250 million fortune to fund "revolutionary organizing." The indictment also alleges that, after fleeing the US in 2023, he transferred about $7.5 million out of the country in order to seek opportunities to provide material support to Hamas, Middle East Eye reported. There are numerous reports that Chambers has possibly supported or interfaced with designated terrorist groups, including Samidoun, which the US Treasury identified as a "sham charity serving as an international fundraiser for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization," and Middle East Children's Alliance, which has been cited by US and allied governments for links to the PFLP. Additional US groups he has possibly supported or interfaced with include China-based Marxist Roy Singham's NGO sphere, including ANSWER Coalition, Party for Socialism and Liberation, and Newsclick, as well as student and campus mobilization networks (such as Students for Justice in Palestine) and political prisoner advocacy groups. Chambers' own Berkshire Communists project in Massachusetts has served as a local hub for organizing and arms training within this network. City Journal's Stu Smith wrote in a recent report, "Chambers is one of the main funders of America's radical Left. His money has flowed to a host of projects in the "anti-imperialism" organizing space," adding, "Chambers claims that he and Singham are effectively the two primary financiers of the US radical left."  ? Fergie Chambers, heir to the Cox media fortune and a major funder of militant pro-Palestine groups, was detained in Spain as the Trump administration seeks his extradition on federal charges carrying up to 30 years in prison.pic.twitter.com/4YrIyZSR8q — Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) July 13, 2026 Chambers' arrest came shortly before Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared war on the radical left in front of delegations from more than 60 nations and focused on joint efforts to curb transnational far-left terrorism across the Western world (with a focus on Cuba).  A recent New York Post article mapped out a multi-agency Treasury task force focused on stripping NGOs of tax-exempt status, including George Soros' far-left Open Society Foundations, the Southern Poverty Law Center, and the Council on American-Islamic Relations.  On Tuesday, President Trump told the United Nations General Assembly in New York that Cuba has spent decades coordinating with far-left revolutionaries and subversion networks into the U.S. Trump said the State Department has worked to uncover Havana's ties to subversive and radical groups such as the Communist Party USA, Antifa, and the DSA.  .@POTUS: The Cuban regime has also spent decades coordinating with left-wing radicals and Communist networks here in the United States. As our State Department has detailed, they have cultivated ties to subversive and radical groups such as the Communist Party USA, Antifa, and… pic.twitter.com/Bopz3W6sXz — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 22, 2026 Whether it's the federal government's multi-agency task force focused on communist Chambers, subversion networks from Cuba, China, the Middle East and/or Europe, or NGOs that are hell-bent on stoking a violent Marxist revolution, we have asked the question in a two-part series (see here and here): Where did all the summer riots go? Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 11:20

— Traders Have Modest Hopes For A Trump-Xi AI Deal

 

at 9/23/26 9:15am

Traders Have Modest Hopes For A Trump-Xi AI Deal While we will provide a more detailed preview of the Trump/Xi summit in a subsequent post, there are signs that President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, may emerge from their upcoming summit with an agreement about the artificial-intelligence industry, an increasingly prominent flash point between the world’s two biggest economies. But, as Bloomberg's Jacob Gu  notes, fund managers say it’s unlikely to be significant enough to provide a sustainable boost to AI-related stocks. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, after hours of talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York, said the two sides agreed to create what he called a “US-China AI dialogue” about the technology’s benefits and threats. The following day, Liao Min, the Chinese Vice Finance Minister, and a key member of the delegation, told Bloomberg that staff from the two countries were working together toward the details of a potential agreement on AI, investment and trade. Bessent will present Trump with an AI agreement to review before his meeting with Xi, Fox Business reported. The importance of AI at the US-China talks is being highlighted by the expected presence of Sam Altman and other industry executives at Trump’s state dinner for Xi to be held later this week, and while US tech execs will be present (again),  Xi is unlikely to bring a delegation of corporate executives when he meets Trump,, the WSJ reported. But Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said investors shouldn’t expect it to have much immediate impact on the business between the two countries. “Given past experiences, our sense is that Trump’s visit to China earlier this year with a heavyweight technology entourage did not ultimately translate into meaningful progress on technology or hardware restrictions,” he said. “From our side, this still looks more symbolic than substantive, and investors should continue positioning for a prolonged AI race rather than an imminent policy breakthrough,” Tan added. Ashwin Binwani, founder of private investment firm Alpha Binwani Capital, was similarly cautious, since Bessent highlighted safety issues rather than an easing of US export controls. “A pop on that news is a fade candidate, not a trend to chase,” he said. “Diversify away from pure semiconductor concentration into the hyperscaler capex story, which has its own momentum independent of the summit.” He said traders have been burned previously when policy discussions failed to result in more concrete steps like licensing or purchase deals. That’s not to say there’d be no potential stock-market impact: He said “a modestly constructive readout” could fuel a rebound in the most heavily shorted Hong Kong stocks as investors close out positions. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 11:15

— Where Will This All/Diesel End Up?

 

at 9/23/26 9:00am

Where Will This All/Diesel End Up? By Michael Every of Rabobank Underlining how markets are now driven by geopolitics and geoeconomics, it’s all big names, big games, and big trades today. The UN general assembly is in session as the Wall Street Journal notes, ‘World leaders almost all agree on one thing: the UN is failing.’ Xi will also visit Trump: will those talks achieve anything substantive? Oil is down on hopes for ‘peace in our time.’ The Saudi east-west pipeline will start again at lower capacity, China warned the Houthis not to block the Red Sea, Trump negotiators held a “very productive” three-hour meeting with the Iranians in New York, Iran floated reopening Hormuz in seven days if the US lifts its blockade, and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy stated Kyiv and Washington want that other war to end “before winter” and is ready for an “energy ceasefire.” Yet elsewhere the question looks like ‘war at what time?’ Iran has hardened its demands for ending the war, and Trump just publicly threatened it with “annihilation”, then met with the Arab states expected to attack Tehran alongside it if that were to occur. Qatar is urging diplomacy as the Gulf enters “one of the most dangerous phases.” Ukraine’s press reports ‘Russia's rigged election gives Putin a mandate for all-out war’. In Russia, two more oil refineries were just hit, and bomb shelters in Moscow and St Petersburg are quietly being modernized. The US, Greenland, and Denmark signed a security deal that will see expanded US military bases and a larger NATO presence. UK PM Burnham did a U-turn on the Chagos islands deal after being told it was “terrible” by Trump, which is important but not market moving; his refusing to rule out rejoining the EU could be both - and he might notice Argentina considering new submarines and frigates. The Senate Armed Services Committee chair has criticized the planned pageantry around the Trump-Xi meeting, which was not offered in Beijing in equal measure: but larger questions swirl around tariffs, rare earths, AI, and Taiwan. The Hong Kong press wonders if both men can use their leverage --recall ‘Who has the cards?’ was our 2026 theme this time last year-- to make progress. Do recall that in April 2017, when the two men first met in the US to talk trade and North Korea, Trump, over “a beautiful piece of chocolate cake”, told Xi that he had just launched 59 cruise missiles at Syria in response to its government’s use of chemical weapons against its own people. Today, could the US spare 59 missiles for the same level of opponent? Ahead of that key meeting, speaking to our zeitgeist, Brazil's President Lula used his UN speech to warn against any foreign interference in his country’s upcoming presidential elections. Much is at stake there in both domestic policy and geostrategic terms. Trump and Japan’s PM Takaichi met to reaffirm their close geopolitical and geoeconomic alliance. That now encompasses the BOJ and the Yen carry trade too: on which note, Japan’s big banks' domestic loan share is seeing its first sustained post-1991 bubble burst rise, exactly what the White House and Takaichi want as (defence) industry investment rises. Nearby, South Korea’s President Lee urged the US to ease North Korea sanctions to encourage it to freeze its nuclear programs; and the EU announced it was moving towards an initial FTA with the Philippines, which sits within the US bloc in Asia – it just received a coastguard vessel from Taiwan, for example. Where will this all end up? Markets must wait for the results of the big-name big game. Relatedly, where will diesel end up? That question must be asked again today after Trump backed calls to halt US exports of refined products to address record high prices at home. Treasury Secretary Bessent said officials are now looking into if a total or partial diesel export ban is feasible. As argued yesterday, in an integrated global energy market, such binary action wouldn’t achieve anything good for the US. However, why assume that backdrop? The US didn’t export any crude at all from 1975 to 2015: shocking to some, perhaps, but true. Yes, the US wants to use “energy domination” as a strategic tool, which requires sharing it - yet why share with everybody, if to your own detriment? Today, why couldn’t the US opt for a partial, geopolitical diesel export ban and use economic statecraft like the Defence Production Act, to keep up refinery output of the ‘right’ products, more Jones Act waivers, to get fuel from the US Gulf to its west and northeast, and new state-backed mandated land and floating storage facilities at home and even regionally, if needed? “Because markets?” If that is your answer, please recognize that such ideological thinking, for that is what it is at root, limits the ability to project potential future market outcomes, and sometimes expensively so. Indeed, note that after Trump floated purchasing cheaper Belarussian potash, ‘elbows up’ liberal-world-order PM Carney floated his country and the US forming a self-reliant bloc for fertilisers. That is exactly what the US wants to do – but for far more than fertilisers, and with more countries than just Canada. For example, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum just had a “very good” call with Trump and touted progress towards a trade deal with what are rumored to be much tighter regional rules of origin. As such, why not with refined crude products too? That doesn’t mean such a strand of US grand macro strategy would be well implemented – but that fact also doesn’t rule out it ever happening. Meanwhile, against the above backdrop, the Fed’s Collins stated, “I now see an increased likelihood of future scenarios in which inflation remains notably above 2%.” To repeat what was said yesterday, the big trade is to correctly predict the big-name big game, not what a small-picture thinker like a central banker is saying long after the geopolitical facts were obvious. If certain deals are struck, if certain countries are struck, if certain market flows are struck, energy prices can change dramatically – and then, suddenly, central bankers will be saying very different things. Those who listen only to them will think they are ahead of the curve rather than seeing they are behind the geopolitical and geoeconomic ones. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 11:00

— Oil Holds Highs After Total Crude Stocks Rose, US Production & Gasoline Demand Dipped

 

at 9/23/26 8:50am

Oil Holds Highs After Total Crude Stocks Rose, US Production & Gasoline Demand Dipped Oil prices reversed initial losses (Brent back above $100) on Wednesday amid persistent Middle East supply risks, as investors weighed the prospect of improved Saudi export flows and U.S.-Iran diplomacy against the potential for further disruptions. Saudi Arabia has begun testing its East-West pipeline for structural integrity and pressure, a step toward restoring oil flows after attacks knocked out the route earlier this month. Crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu could restart within a couple of days if the tests are successful, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. U.S. envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said in a post on X that American officials engaged in lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through mediators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The mediators shuttled between the two sides throughout the day and completed a round of discussions that the U.S. hopes will prove constructive and promising, he said. Reports of fresh attacks this morning didn't help any diplomatic optimism, but expectations (driven by last night's API report) suggest crude stocks stabilizing while product stocks are drawing down... API Crude +1.8mm Cushing +2.1mm Gasoline -2.2mm Distillates -2.2mm DOE Crude +2.97mm Cushing +2.27mm Gasoline -1.69mm Distillates -428k Cushing stocks bounced off 'tank bottoms' and crude inventories jumped last week while product stocks both saw modest draws... The SPR saw a very modest 405k barrel drain last week - the second tiny drain in a row since the war began. Last week's sizable Crude build was enbough to offset the drain and create only the second weekly build in total crude stocks since early April... ...as the caves hit 'tank' bottoms.. The dip in US distillates stocks leaves it 15% below seasonal averages (and a record low for this time of year)... Crude production edged lower to 13.94 million barrels a day last week, down by 5,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The small drop came even as the number of rigs drilling rose for a third straight week, with another two units put into operation, according to Baker Hughes. The 4-week moving average for US gasoline demand slipped by 49,000 per day for the EIA week, but remains within seasonal norms... WTI was trading around $92 ahead of the official data and is maintaining those highs since... Bank of America raised its Brent forecast for the second half of the year to $95 a barrel from $83, citing the large disruption to crude and refined-product supplies. Continued skirmishes through year-end are now its most likely scenario, while alternative routes and escorted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have mitigated some of the shortfall, Francisco Blanch of BofA Global Research said. Damaged infrastructure and geopolitical tensions make a rapid normalization unlikely, he added. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 10:50

— Pezeshkian Lashes Out In UN Speech: The Nuclear Bombs Are In Israel, But Inspectors Sent To Iran

 

at 9/23/26 8:46am

Pezeshkian Lashes Out In UN Speech: The Nuclear Bombs Are In Israel, But Inspectors Sent To Iran Summary: Pezeshkian Addresses UN As expected, the United States delegation immediately walked out as Iran's president began speaking, in front of what was not a very well attended address to begin with. He listed out a series of war crimes by the US aggressor but an accompanying theme was Iranian defiance while under the bombs. He also featured the Minab girls school attack by the US, underscoring that innocent children were killed - but contrasting this with Iran's response, saying it did not hit civilian populations Iran's enemies have been make to learn we will not surrender, Pezeshkian declared. "They imposed the war on us, but we proved that we are not afraid of fighting a war, one that is defensive in nature." Another theme was the ongoing hypocrisy over the fact that "atomic and nuclear bombs are in the hands of the Israeli regime, but the inspectors are sent to Iran." Pezeshkian further recalled that Iran while behind the table of negotiations came under the surprise bombs of US and Israeli warplanes. He repeated that "Israel has the [nuclear] bombs... and has not allowed a single inspection, yet they are rewarded." He also said, "The US wants to sacrifice the population of a country in order to seek its illegitimate goals" and so "This will become a world much more dangerous for all of us." On Hormuz and the question of negotiations, he said that the strait cannot be used for passage of weapons that will be used against Iran. While Iran is ready for diplomacy it strands ready to keep using its military power, the Iranian leader said. Overall, the speech did not focus very heavily at all on the prospect of new talks with Washington - something perhaps intentionally left out to appease domestic hardliners in the Islamic Republic. *  *  * Watch: Iran's President Pezeshkian speaks Immediately upon the Iranian leaders starting his speech, the US delegation walks out. Earlier: We once again have differing versions of a key meeting in the aftermath of a significant and rare US and Iranian diplomatic encounter. The Tuesday 3-hour meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York was headed by Tehran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, and on the other side by Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The US side had called the talks "very productive" - with the suggestion that the Iranians were in the mood to compromise for the sake of achieving a swift ceasefire and peace deal. However, The Guardian reports Wednesday, "Iran has pushed back on claims that it dropped former preconditions for reopening the strait of Hormuz in surprise talks held in New York under the mediation of Qatar...". via AFP"Trump said the three-hour talks held in a room at the UN headquarters had gone very well and been very productive," the report continues. "He suggested further talks were possible imminently, which led to the price of a barrel of Brent crude to fall to below $100 (£75) for the first time in two weeks. Witkoff said the talks had been ‘encouraging, constructive and successful.'" In Tehran, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei did not convey that there has been any shift in Iran's negotiating position: "The interaction that took place with the American side was through Qatari mediation. This interaction was aimed at conveying Iran’s conditions, including the end of the war in all its dimensions, the cessation of American aggressive actions, the naval siege, and the economic war, the release of Iranian assets and so on." The Iranian delegation conveyed to the US side the precise five conditions that Tehran has been pushing all along, the Iranian official insisted.. Among the 'biggest asks' - which the Trump administration has thus far shown openness to - is the release of all Iranian frozen assets. Instead, Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have only sought to tighten the anti-Tehran noose with 'Economic D-Day' and secondary sanctions targeting anyone still doing business with Iran. On Sept. 20, the Iranian parliament speaker said that Tehran had "clearly communicated" its strict conditions to Washington via mediators: The chief negotiator warned that there would be “no return to the previous negotiating framework or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” unless Iran's preconditions were met. “We must both fight and negotiate,” Qalibaf said in remarks to the parliament, criticizing what he described as approaches that offer “no clear path to ending” the conflict. “This view…effectively takes the country toward an endless, exhausting war.” Iranian 'hardliners' are said to be outraged upon learning of the Tuesday Kushner-Witkoff meeting, and so much of Tehran's messaging in the aftermath has also been geared for domestic consumption: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi's move in dealing with Witkov was done without coordination with the relevant authorities, according to Tasnim, citing sources  US state-funded RFERL has listed out the following responses from within Iran: Some called for impeachment proceedings to be launched though they were not clear if they wanted Araqchi or Pezeshkian out of office. One user charged that the meeting was “an even bigger mistake” than Pezeshkian traveling to the US for the UN General Assembly. “If anyone’s met and negotiated with the Americans, they better stay there. [Iran] is a country for honorable people,” wrote Vahid Azizi, an economist and former official at the Iranian National Tax Administration under hard-line late president Ebrahim Raisi. Hard-line commentator Mohsen Maqsudi said it was “sheer stupidity” to negotiate with Washington while “under threat” and cause a drop in oil prices. Tehran has been hoping that the rise in fuel costs will pressure Trump into ending the war. Hardliners ask: why negotiate with the Americans at all, and why provide optics which will push down the price of oil? Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei has sought to calm domestic criticisms on Wednesday: “If the United States does not comply,” he said, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and negotiations will not resume. He added that the U.S. must first “earn the trust of the Iranian people.” Today, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, we engaged in lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through the mediators, who shuttled between the two sides throughout the day. They successfully completed a round of discussions that we hope will prove… — Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (@SEPeaceMissions) September 22, 2026 Like Washington, the Iranian side does not want to 'endless war' - but has also vowed to outlast the Trump administration. The US President himself has lately conceded that the Iranians are waiting till after the November midterm elections to strike a deal, expecting that the Republics will lose Congress. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 10:46

— San Francisco Sues Truth Social Over Early Access To Trump's Posts

 

at 9/23/26 8:20am

San Francisco Sues Truth Social Over Early Access To Trump's Posts Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times, San Francisco filed a lawsuit Sept. 22 against the parent company of Truth Social over President Donald Trump's posts, claiming the company created a corrupt business scheme through its $100,000-per-month Truth API plan that allows subscribers to get his posts before they become public. City Attorney David Chiu claims in the lawsuit, filed in San Francisco Superior Court, that Trump Media and Technology Group created financial gain for Trump Media and the president through the new service. The paid access, launched on Aug. 1, allows subscribers to pay up to $100,000 a month for early access to 10 high-profile Truth Social accounts, including Trump's. Chiu alleges the operation monetizes preferential access to information derived from Trump's position and access to information unavailable to the general public, allegedly violating the public trust and California's Unfair Competition Law. "Trump Media has unlawfully created, priced, marketed, and operated a commercial mechanism that knowingly and willfully facilitates Trump's use of nonpublic information for private profit," Chiu wrote in the lawsuit. The claim also alleged Trump Media violated other federal laws that protect against insider trading, including the prohibition on taking material nonpublic information from a person with a duty of trust and confidence and selling it to people who might trade on it to get an unfair financial advantage. Chiu also claims the service in unfair by violating the state's unfair competition law "because the harm they impose greatly outweighs the utility of their conduct." "Defendant's scheme facilitates the appropriation of information held in the public trust for private gain," Chiu wrote in the lawsuit. He alleges the practice disadvantages law-abiding businesses and ordinary Californians who participate in financial markets in various ways, including their retirement accounts, pensions, and other public sector funds. "These everyday investors are placed at a substantial disadvantage to sophisticated firms willing and able to pay extraordinary sums for advanced access to market-moving information," the lawsuit states. In an Aug. 10 earnings call, Trump Media's interim Chief Executive Kevin McGurn told investors the company had signed more than 10 customer agreements for the service. The city is asking the court to order Truth Social's parent company to stop offering the Truth API service. Trump Media, based in Florida, did not respond to a request for comment about the lawsuit. Trump launched Truth Social in February 2022. He holds the largest share of the company with 41 percent of the stock. The company's agreement includes an exclusivity window requiring the president to wait six hours after posting on Truth Social before posting the same message on any other social media platform, according to the lawsuit. San Francisco's legal action was the second taken against Truth Social's early-access product. Two news organizations - The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation - seeking to shut down the service sued the social media company Aug. 12 in Manhattan federal court making similar claims about the president selling priority access to government information to enrich himself. The lawsuit targets Trump in his position as president, and Natalie J. Harp as his executive assistant. It also names Daniel Scavino, the White House deputy chief of staff and director of the White House personnel office. The other accounts offered in the service include those of Vice President JD Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., FBI Director Kash Patel, and the White House. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 10:20

— 10Y Yield Spikes Above 5.00% After Blowout Beats For US PMIs

 

at 9/23/26 7:55am

10Y Yield Spikes Above 5.00% After Blowout Beats For US PMIs With 'hard' economic data still somewhat muted, expectations were for a modest retracement in US PMIs from recently optimistic levels in preliminary September data. Instead, the 'soft' survey data soared: Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 58.7 vs 55.8 exp (August: 56.5). 59-month high. Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 vs 53.7 exp (August: 53.9). 52-month high.  The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, registering the fastest expansion since July 2021 and an acceleration of growth for a fourth successive month. Growth was driven by the service sector, which reported the steepest rise in output for over five years, but a welcome development in September was an accompanying acceleration of manufacturing output growth to the fastest since April 2022. New order inflows also gathered pace in both sectors, with growth reaching the highest since March 2022 in the service sector and the highest since April 2022 in manufacturing. In both cases, demand was buoyed principally by the domestic market, as goods export volumes continued to fall and services exports rose only modestly. “US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Historical comparisons suggest that the latest survey data point to annualized growth of around 5% with a 4% gain now signalled for the third quarter as a whole... To put the growth surge in context, barring the spike in demand following the opening up of the economy after the COVID-19 lockdowns, the latest improvement in business activity is the greatest recorded since early 2015 with Williamson noting that: "Business is clearly booming now in both manufacturing and services." However, he adds, this growth is being accompanied by some of the most severe supply chain bottlenecks seen in the near-two-decade survey history if the pandemic is excluded, with companies also reporting increasing problems finding suitable staff. Backlogs of work are consequently rising sharply. While this accumulation of uncompleted orders bodes well for the further expansion of output and capacity in the coming months, it also indicates that companies are developing more pricing power, and hence is a worry for the inflation outlook. “Firms’ input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking higher thanks to the rise in oil prices seen during the month, which will add further to the upward pressure on selling prices and inflation in the coming months.” As a result of all this, 10Y yields have spiked back above 5.00%... ...and rate-hike odds picked up modestly for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:55

— OpenAI, Anthropic To Brief UN Security Council On AI Risks

 

at 9/23/26 7:30am

OpenAI, Anthropic To Brief UN Security Council On AI Risks Authored by Ezra Reguerra via Cointelegraph, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are expected to brief the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday as the body examines artificial intelligence risks and their implications for international security. According to CNBC, the UN confirmed Altman and Amodei's participation. Hugging Face CEO Clément Delangue and Yoshua Bengio, co-chair of the UN's Independent International Scientific Panel on AI, are also expected to take part. Reuters reported that the Security Council meeting will examine growing concerns over AI's impact on international security. Chinese AI companies DeepSeek and Moonshot have been invited to make statements at the meeting, according to Reuters. DeepSeek is expected to participate, though its founder Liang Wenfeng does not plan to attend, the report said, citing a source familiar with the matter. The Security Council first formally discussed artificial intelligence in 2023, Reuters reported, as governments began examining its security implications. France is convening the Security Council meeting on Wednesday. Reuters reported that the discussion comes amid growing concerns about increasingly capable AI systems and the potential loss of human control. Cointelegraph reached out to Anthropic, OpenAI and the UN spokesperson's office for confirmation and comment but had not received responses before publication. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:30

— Zelensky Ready For Reciprocal Energy Ceasefire Ahead Of UN Speech

 

at 9/23/26 7:15am

Zelensky Ready For Reciprocal Energy Ceasefire Ahead Of UN Speech Major Russian drone attacks pummeled the Ukrainian capital overnight, resulting in two people killed and at least 23 wounded, also unleashing large-scale fires and damage, with plumes of black smoke seen hovering over the city. Other locations came under attack, which has been a nightly phenomenon, including in southeast Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and the Black Sea port of Odesa - the latter where the captain of a cargo ship was tragically killed. Prior drone assault on Kiev from earlier in the war, via Reuters.Also, the country's rail system continues to be under threat, with Ukrainian Railways chief Oleksandr Pertsovsky saying the rail network in the capital area was "under fire" - for which he urged "maximum" vigilance from passengers. Amid ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian exports and imports, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday: "The recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea are unacceptable, regardless of who is responsible." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is meanwhile readying to address to UN General Assembly in New York, with the speech set for the late afternoon session on Wednesday. He's expected to push Western and global partners to hold the line against Putin, and pledge more support - especially missiles and air defense systems - headed into winter. Zelensky had forewarned in a Tuesday Telegram post that Russia was planning "a new massive attack" against Ukraine. According to some of the latest from New York in the context of the UNGA: Zelenskyy said Ukraine is ready for an “energy ceasefire” with Russia, provided Moscow stops attacks on critical infrastructure. Ukraine’s president also urged Trump to organize a trilateral meeting with Putin, saying the leaders should move “as quickly as possible” to end the war. Zelenskyy also called on Trump to engage Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying he has influence over Putin, as Kyiv braces for another winter of attacks on its energy infrastructure. It was only on Monday that President Trump again sought to publicly pressure Zelensky to halt long-range drone strikes on Russia's refineries, in a bid to calm rising diesel prices especially while the parallel Strait of Hormuz crisis persists. Russian jet-powered drones have bombed central Kyiv throughout today, largely targeting the neighborhood around the main railway station. The city is shrouded in smoke and the air smells heavy and toxic. At least one person has been killed and many others wounded. Fires are still… pic.twitter.com/HfFK28zeJN — Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 23, 2026 In a phone call, Zelensky was pressed by Trump over the strikes as Washington wants "Russian supplies to be able to reach the global market to provide relief." But now, after the Tuesday Trump meeting: “We are ready for an energy ceasefire if the Russians do not strike our energy infrastructure,” he said. According to him, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will convey Kyiv’s proposal to Moscow. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New York City on Wednesday. Writing later on US social media platform X, Zelenskyy elaborated on the discussions, noting that the leaders discussed "how to end the war." ???? Zelensky says Ukrainian lives matter more than energy prices, so he won't stop hitting Russian refineries just to bring diesel down. That's what he says he told Trump after POTUS blamed Kyiv for the price spike. He acknowledged Ukraine's strikes do move the market, but… — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 23, 2026 Recent efforts to "force" an energy ceasefire in Ukraine have fallen short, given once they are proclaimed it typically takes less than 48 hours for each side to break it. Refineries even in the Moscow area have lately come under major drone barrage, inflicting severe damage. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:15

— "The Danes Lied The Most": What's Really In The Text Of Trump's Landmark Deal With Greenland

 

at 9/23/26 7:00am

"The Danes Lied The Most": What's Really In The Text Of Trump's Landmark Deal With Greenland Authored by John Weeks via AntiWar.com US To Establish Two New Military Bases In Greenland The United States plans to open two new military bases in Greenland, an expansion made possible by a new security agreement between the US, Denmark, and the semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed the new security agreement during a trilateral ceremony at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. US Army imageThe "agreement," which amends a 1951 defense treaty, allows the US "to establish an additional Defense Area at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig in accordance with modalities and technical details to be mutually agreed by the Parties," which is where the two new military bases will be created. Narsarsuaq hosted the US Bluie West One military base in the 1940s and 1950s. Mestersvig is a current military outpost used by the Danish special forces unit called Sirius Dog Sled Patrol. The agreement also allows the US to "modernize and expand its activities" at its existing Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, create additional military facilities on the island, and enjoy greater military access by land, air, and sea. It also bans non-NATO nations from establishing a military presence on Greenland and provides the U.S. with economic privileges (such as “minerals cooperation”) in the resource-rich island. During a speech to assembled world leaders at the UN before the trilateral ceremony, Trump spoke of the "unprecedented agreement regarding the northern frontier of North America, the large and strategically vital piece of land known as Greenland." This rhetoric tracked with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s vow in March to establish a "Greater North America." However, the agreement does not have the US take over Greenland, as leaders on the island, in Denmark, and throughout Europe had feared earlier this year. Such fears were well placed, considering that the US conquered Venezuela in January, has been working toward regime change in Cuba, and is currently at war with Iran. What's in the actual Greenland deal text? Analysis in the following: "The Danes lied the most: Trump is pretty much correct in saying that this new deal grants the US control of Greenland"... Ok, we now have the actual text of the Greenland deal (https://t.co/HwqZT6CGb2), so we can say how it compares to the existing 1951 arrangement and who, between Trump and Denmark, lied the most in their framing of it. Long story short - which may surprise some - the Danes lied… https://t.co/DPM2iFkN4v — Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) September 23, 2026 Geopolitical commentator Arnaud Bertrand's breakdown of the official text and the implications: 1) This is now a permanent arrangement: whereas the existing 1951 deal only lasted as long as NATO existed, this one "does not have an end date and may only be amended by mutual consent." It even survives a hypothetical future independence of Greenland: in that event, Denmark and Greenland must ensure that the independent Greenlandic state "affirmatively assume[s] all of the rights and obligations of the Kingdom of Denmark specified in this Agreement." 2) In the 1951 agreement, the US could set up bases only where both governments agreed, and only on the basis of NATO planning. The new deal locks in three bases: the US can "modernize and expand its activities" at Pituffik, its only base in Greenland until now, and "shall be allowed to establish an additional Defense Area at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig." Further bases beyond these 3 can be justified by the defense of "the American continent," a US interest rather than a NATO one. Also, quite subtle but this is interesting: Article IV(iii) says that "the United States may establish additional defense areas in Greenland" and that consultations are then held "to decide implementation details based on mutual agreement." What this means is that the principle of a new base is automatically granted and only the implementation details require agreement. Article VII also gives the US "the right to raise concerns regarding construction, or change of use" of any building near a US base, after which the parties decide together what to do. Which means that the US has a say over civilian planning around its bases. 3) On US military movement across Greenland, the wording change between the 1951 agreement and this new one is quite funny. The 1951 text said (Art. V(3)): the US "may enjoy... the right of free access to and movement between the defense areas through Greenland, including territorial waters, by land, air and sea," but only "in accordance with general rules mutually agreed upon and issued by the appropriate Danish authority in Greenland." The new one says: "the United States of America shall enjoy... the right of free access to and movement between the Defense Areas through Greenland, including the Territorial Waters, by land, air and sea." That's it: "May" becomes "shall," and the US military movement no longer has to follow rules "issued by the appropriate Danish authority in Greenland." The US also gets something new on top: "undersea access to and movement within the Territorial Waters," i.e. submarines. 4) Non-NATO exclusion: non-NATO states are barred from military installations or a persistent presence in Greenland unless all three parties approve, giving the US an effective permanent veto. The 1951 deal had no equivalent clause. 5) Investment screening: this is entirely new. "States or investors from a state that is not a member of NATO, a NATO partner, or an EU member state" (i.e. Russia, China, India, the Gulf States, etc.), "shall not be allowed to have (i) control, (ii) significant influence, or (iii) access to non-public information...within Particularly Sensitive Sectors or Activities in the territory of Greenland (including the Territorial Waters), unless agreed between the Parties." Again, it basically means that the US has a permanent veto over who can invest in strategic sectors in Greenland, as far as non-NATO or EU states are concerned. 6) Lastly, in stark contrast with the 1951 deal, the framing of the deal changes significantly: this new deal is largely framed around the US. The 1951 agreement existed only "for the benefit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." The new one lists the defense of "the American continent" as an objective, celebrates "the irreplaceable role" of the United States military as well as "the United States' indispensable historical and ongoing contributions to the security and defense of Greenland," and names the establishment of Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense system as a key goal. During his UN speech, Trump unleashed an extremely aggressive statement aimed at Tehran: "Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before, maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East, or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?" Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:00

— Kim Jong Un Touts Hypersonic Missile Test: 'Incurable Headache' To Enemies

 

at 9/22/26 9:00pm

Kim Jong Un Touts Hypersonic Missile Test: 'Incurable Headache' To Enemies North Korea has continued to try and instill fear into Washington and Seoul, on Sunday firing two short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan. However, these were apparently new military toys in the arsenal, with state media touting "a new type of weapon" - which Kim Jong Un later described as capable of giving "the enemy an incurable headache and a very cruel and unavoidable blow." Kim further said the test, which was conducted by North Korea’s Missile Administration, showcased the armed forces' ability to fight and that "the enemy will know better what such progress means without any explanation." As for what makes this a 'new' weapon which is special and out of the ordinary, Space.com details: But photos suggest that it involved a short-range missile topped with a hypersonic warhead, according to NK News, a Seoul-based publication that focuses on happenings in the Hermit Kingdom. Hypersonic vehicles travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound and are highly maneuverable. They are therefore much harder to track and intercept than ballistic missiles, which, though very fast, follow predictable trajectories. DPRK state mediaKim further hinted at this when talking about his country's possession of "ultra-modern defense technology." The pace North Korean missile tests have been steadily ticking up. During the first Trump administration, Kim met the US president on a series of occasions. While historic, it didn't lead to the kind of breakthrough on 'de-nuclearization' that Washington and Seoul were hoping for, and Pyongyang has gone back to being on the extreme defensive. ?? "An incurable headache for adversaries" On September 20, Pyongyang conducted tests of a new hypersonic missile under the personal supervision of Kim Jong Un. Released footage revealed, for the first time, flight data for a missile designated "Hwasong-11B-1." According to… pic.twitter.com/1HqDRJ0IeD — dana (@dana916) September 22, 2026 The White House has lately signaled it would like to get back on a direct diplomacy track with Pyongyang, but North Korea has been blistering angry over recent US-South Korea military drills on the peninsula. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 23:00

— Elon Musk Is Powering The American Renaissance

 

at 9/22/26 8:35pm

Elon Musk Is Powering The American Renaissance Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Daily Signal, Editor's note: This is a lightly edited transcript of today's video from Daily Signal senior contributor Victor Davis Hanson. Subscribe to the YouTube channel to see more of his videos. Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily Signal. There's a lot of controversy about Elon Musk. His reputation took a big hit, remember, right after the election, because half the country voted, roughly 48%, voted against Donald Trump. Elon Musk had flipped from a former Hillary Clinton supporter and Joe Biden supporter to a firm MAGA adherent and voted for Donald Trump in 2024. As a result of that and his comments opposing illegal immigration, there were people who not only were demonstrating against [Immigration and Customs Enforcement], but attacking Tesla dealerships. Everybody said that Elon Musk's brand had suffered accordingly, that Tesla was on the way down, that European and American [electric vehicle] makers, along with Chinese EV makers, would dominate the market, given the tarnishing of the Musk brand and in conjunction with the end of the federal subsidy for electric vehicles. So, people were suggesting that the era of Elon Musk was over. He was very controversial, and he was outspoken on his own platform, X, on conservative issues such as illegal immigration, green energy, [artificial intelligence] in ways that infuriated the Left. And the Left, remember, was considered the natural consumer of electric vehicles. So, are we watching the decline of Elon Musk? No. No, no, no. The exact opposite is happening. In the second quarter of 2026, Tesla had a rebound, and it captured 52% of all the EVs sold in the United States. It has a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion. The other "Big Three" automakers are beginning to exit the EV market. China cannot send their EVs into the United States. Why did Tesla rebound? Was it because all of a sudden Elon Musk had a fight with Donald Trump for a while? No. Was it because he apologized to the Left? No. It's because when you buy a Tesla and you drive it and you compare it with other brands of the Big Three in terms of distancing, acceleration, safety, appurtenances, it's not just better, but it keeps getting better geometrically, at a geometric rate, not just an arithmetic. It has the best program for self-driving. It's the safest. It has the longest range. It's the most fun to drive, and people like it regardless of their politics. If you move to SpaceX, 67% of all the satellites in low orbit around the world today are associated with Elon Musk's SpaceX company - 67%, over 12,000 satellites. The market capitalization of SpaceX is well over $2 trillion - $2 trillion. SpaceX, with its various rockets, has saved a morbid, calcified, ossified NASA. It alone, with its rocketry and space vehicles, has put the United States not just back into the so-called space race and return to the moon and eventually to Mars, it's made it preeminent over the Europeans, the Japanese, and the Chinese. More importantly, it's given the United States enormous technological advances in rocketry, ballistic missiles, which have a definite military component to them. When Elon Musk paid an exorbitant fee for X, people felt that he had made an enormous mistake, that it was overpriced. And yet, people were saying that users would abandon him and go elsewhere. In fact, that has not happened. That has not happened. There are 560 million users of X today. BlueSky, the alternative that was supposed to break X, has 3 million users. Three million versus 560 million users. And remember that his Starlink satellite platform has captured 97% of all satellite internet usage. There are 12 million people who have a Starlink receiver and are subscribers in 160 countries. Most of the U.S. military and our allied militaries, including the Ukrainians and the Israelis, count on Starlink to guide their missiles and their drones, to protect them from incoming attack. Let's just put all of this in some kind of perspective. In terms of market capitalization, Elon Musk has well over $3.5 trillion in his various companies. SpaceX is the largest and it's the most dominant, and it will either ensure that the United States is first in space exploration and satellite launching. And, by the way, more satellites were launched on Elon Musk rockets last year than all of the satellites launched elsewhere put together. In addition to that, he created the electric vehicle market. It did not exist. He created the idea. Everyone said it would not work, that he was going to go broke, and he was finished. He not only created the Tesla electric vehicle, he made it preeminent and dominant today. And he did it because, for the price and a cost-benefit analysis, it was unmatched. In terms of Grok, it is about third. About 16% of all AI platforms and chatbots use Grok. So, let's just keep that in perspective. The United States is preeminent today in social media, in artificial intelligence, in satellite launches, in the number of rocket launches in general, in electric vehicles. And all of that put together is due to one person, Elon Musk, who has been reviled and attacked by the Left as either treasonous or insane or cruel or whatever. One man has combined the talents of Alexander Graham Bell, Thomas Edison, and Henry Ford all in one person, and he's an American. In other words, much of the success of the United States' current renaissance in digital media, in satellites, in electrical vehicles, in AI, in software is due to one person. One person can make a difference. In the case of Elon Musk, he made a big difference. We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of the Daily Signal. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 22:35

— China's DJI Alone Dwarfs Entire US Drone Production

 

at 9/22/26 8:10pm

China's DJI Alone Dwarfs Entire US Drone Production Two active wars across Eurasia, intensifying resource nationalism, and an energy crisis are adding urgency to US efforts to reduce dependence on China. Concerns about a potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan reinforce the supply chain decoupling theme.  The proliferation of attritable drones and interceptors is reshaping the economics of warfare. Industrial capacity, production costs, and the ability to replace cheap one-way attack drones at scale are becoming key considerations as the US military prepares for a rearmament supercycle.  The challenge for the US is that the industrial base has been hollowed out for decades, and ramping up capacity and building new supply chains will take years. On top of that, China dominates the processing of many critical minerals and will likely hold a quasi-monopoly on the space through the end of the decade. The US is actively seeking to build out new conflict-free critical material supplies, but that will take years.  Together, these dependencies on foreign supply chains could constrain the US rearmament supercycle. Another uncomfortable reality for the West came in the form of a case study highlighted in a slide deck and shared recently on X, showing that China's drone production is absolutely running circles around the US. The slide highlights a massive gap between Chinese and US drone production, comparing DJI alone with the entire American industry: DJI reported monthly production: 2.8 million drones DJI annualized capacity: 34 million drones Estimated annual US production: about 100,000 drones US Drone Dominance procurement through 2028: around 340,000 drones Using those figures, DJI's annual capacity would be roughly 340 times current US annual output, which the slide rounds to approximately 300 times. The only conceivable path back to parity with China in weapons production requires the development of a globally competitive American civilian electronics industry that we can turn over to war production if the need arises Before and after mobilization it must pay for itself https://t.co/Bu7UsuDSo4 — mattparlmer ? ? (@mattparlmer) September 20, 2026 The message is that, as an uncertain and volatile world heads toward greater instability, the US faces an industrial-scale challenge: developing low-cost drones is only part of the problem; manufacturing them at scale is another. Procuring the rare earths needed for motors and sensors is yet another major issue as China chokes off supplies to the West. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 22:10

As of 9/23/26 2:09pm. Last new 9/23/26 12:18pm.