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[l] at 7/13/24 5:06am
The NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1904-1924 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past twelve months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise. Note that the 1904-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past twelve months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed. [ from earlier post ] The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by Sam Carana for Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then. Climate Emergency Declaration The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov • Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: 2°C, crossed, Paris Agreement, thresholds]

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[l] at 7/11/24 5:53am
 by Andrew GliksonFigure 1. 2023 was the Earth's warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880.As temperatures in large parts of the Earth are soaring (cf. 52.3°C in Delhi, flames engulf large regions in California, tornadoes ravage the Gulf of Mexico states, severe drought starve populations in southern Africa and climate extremes continue to taking over large parts of the Earth. Much like oncologists advising patients and their families of a terminal illness, so do climate scientists agonizing while reporting the advent of dangerous warming as temperatures rise and tipping points are broken. But while climate change has become more than evident, there is a heavy price to be paid by those who try to alert the public.Figure 2. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis (Hansen et al., 2024).One of the glaring misconceptions, which ignores the dispersal of greenhouse gases throughout the atmosphere, is as if their global effects depend on the country from which the carbon is extracted. Further, politically originated stigmas labels scientists as some kind of “alarmists”or “Cassandras”. A threat of institutional penalties affects scientist’s jobs. Along with the dominion of vested pro-carbon interests these factors drive humanity blind toward the Sixth Mass Extinction of Species.Figure 3. A prolonged dry spell in southern Africa in early 2024 scorched crops and threatened food security for millions of people.In private conversations, many climate scientists express far greater concern at the progression and consequences of global warming than they do in public.A number of prominent climate scientists representing the scientific consensus on climate change, as documented by the IPCC, have tried their best to convey the message in public forums, but were mostly shunned by conservative media. At the same time many climate scientists tend to regard the IPCC-based climate consensus as too optimistic. An article titled When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job (Richardson, 2015) states … “Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can’t really talk about it … Climate scientists have been so distracted and intimidated by the relentless campaign against them that they tend to avoid any statements that might get them labelled “alarmists”, instead retreating into a world of charts and data.“As stated by Noam Chomsky: “It’s interesting that these public climate debates leave out almost entirely a third part of the debate, namely a very substantial number of scientists, competent scientists, who think that the scientific consensus is much too optimistic. A group of scientists at MIT came out with a report about a year ago describing what they called the most comprehensive modelling of the climate that had ever been done. Their conclusion, which was unreported in public media as far as I know, was that the major scientific consensus of the international commission is just way off, it’s much too optimistic … their own conclusion was that unless we terminate use of fossil fuels almost immediately, it’s finished. We’ll never be able to overcome the consequences. That’s avoided in the debate.”Antarctica is losing ice at an average rate of more than 150 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing more than 270 billion tons per year, adding to sea level rise. Some glaciologists and Arctic scientists consider the accelerated rate of glacial melt in Greenland and West Antarctica may result in little remaining ice over these terrains toward the end of the century, leading to sea level rise on the scale of many meters, with catastrophic consequences for coastal and river valley population centres.The Arctic Ocean contains vast amounts of carbon accumulated during the Pleistocene ice ages. The greenhouse effect of methane traps up to 100 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide within a 5 year period, and 72 times more within a 20 year period. Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – continued their climb during 2023 according to the latest measurements from NOAA and CIRES scientists. The current CO₂ growth rate threatens an irreversible shift in the state of the Earth climate through looming tipping points, including transient cooling events induced by flow of cold ice melt water into the oceans from Greenland and Antarctica; Glikson (2019).Figure 4. Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.There is little evidence that climate science had much of an effect on the outcome of the Paris Agreement. The warming target of +1.5°C has already been breached over the continents or is masked by the reflective albedo of transient sulphur aerosols. At the current growth rate of ~3 ppm/year CO₂ will rise closer to the stability threshold of the polar ice sheets.Little encouragement can be gained from the non-binding promises emerging from climate conferences, which James Hansen described as a “fraud”.While the implications of the global climate emergency have reached the defence establishment, the world continues to spend near to $2.4 trillion each year on the military instead on the protection of life.As the portents for a major mass extinction of species are rising – who will defend life on Earth?A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, extinction]

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[l] at 7/8/24 8:15am
The above image, created with Climate Reanalyzer content, shows that June 2024 was substantially hotter than June 2023, which is significant since we're not in an El Niño anymore. Moreover, monthly temperatures are also rising.According to Copernicus, the global-average temperature for the past 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024) has been more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), adds: "June marks the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures, and the 12th in a row above 1.5°C with respect to pre-industrial. This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate." Note that, as discussed in earlier posts, anomalies from a genuinely pre-industrial base could be much higher. Arctic sea iceThe danger is that feedbacks and further developments will accelerate the temperature rise even more. Critical in this respect is the condition of Arctic sea ice. The image below, adapted from the Danish Metereological Institute, indicates that Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for most of the year. At the same time, sea ice extent is still relatively large; Arctic sea ice extent was 3% below average in June 2024, close to the values observed most years since 2010, according to Copernicus. The implication is that sea ice must be very thin. The combination image below, from an earlier post and adapted from the University of Bremen, indicates that most of the thicker sea ice has melted in the course of June 2024, and that the latent heat buffer may be gone soon.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Copernicus: June 2024 marks 12th month of global temperature reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-june-2024-marks-12th-month-global-temperature-reaching-15degc-above-pre-industrialDiscussed at Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161520778324679• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thicknesshttps://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• Copernicus - Sea ice cover for June 2024 https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-june-2024• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• Latent heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, rise, sea ice, temperature]

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[l] at 7/6/24 1:24am
The above image shows a trend (magenta), based on NOAA August 2008 through June 2024 data (black) and added on a canvas that is 31.42-year wide. If this trend continues, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2037 due to the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) alone. [ from earlier post ] Rising CO₂ emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources. [ from earlier post ] Despite the many warnings and despite pledges by politicians to act decisively, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing rapidly. Until now, the annual peak was typically reached in May, but this year the June average was (slightly) higher than the May average, ominously pointing at an even higher growth than the record growth in 2023. Over the past twelve months, CO₂ concentrations have been recorded of well over 430 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below. The clouds tipping point is actually at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so it could be crossed even earlier than in 2037 when also taking into account more methane, nitrous oxide, etc. As illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022 points at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027 due to a rise in methane alone. As discussed in an earlier post, peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with 400 ppm CO₂e. Together with a daily peak CO₂ concentration of 430 ppm, this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 830 ppm, i.e. only 370 ppm away from the clouds tipping point. This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page. [ image from the Extinction page ] There are many further developments such as tipping points and feedbacks that should be taken into account. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the mechanism of how multiple feedbacks can accelerate the heating up of the atmosphere. Several feedbacks can also constitute tipping points. Decline of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of albedo and loss of the Latent Heat Buffer, and the joint loss can abruptly and dramatically increase temperatures in the Arctic Ocean.Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, trends in CO2 https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts • Albedohttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: clouds tipping point, CO2, greenhouse gases, latent heat, rise, temperature]

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[l] at 7/3/24 6:56am
Water vapor feedbackThere are numerous self-amplifying feedbacks that accelerate the temperature rise. One of them is the water vapor feedback. Just the temperature rise itself will cause more water vapor to be in the atmosphere.[ from Moistening Atmosphere ]The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature.A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere, as the extinction page points out. The increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-amplifying feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, accelerating the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water reached 26.741 kg/m² in June 2024.As the above images also illustrates, surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, and was much higher for each of the first six months in 2024 than for the same months in 2023. More emissions of greenhouse gases (from earlier post)Rising temperatures cause more emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.  Studies such as by Hubau (2020) warn that the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Studies now warn that the Arctic has also changed from sink to source.A study by Del Vecchi et al. (2024) suggests that a gradual thawing of Arctic permafrost could release between 22 billion and 432 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2100 if current greenhouse gas emissions are reined in — and as much as 550 billion tons if they are not.An analysis by Ramage et al. (2024) concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide.The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth.Note that the joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only covers part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon). Miesner et al. (2023) warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks. Despite the dire situation, the IPCC keeps promoting less effective policies such as support for biofuel and tighter fuel efficiency standards, as discussed in earlier posts such as this 2022 one.Further feedbacksThe image below on the right illustrates how two feedbacks contribute to accelerated Arctic temperature rise:[ from earlier post ]Feedback #1: albedo loss as sea ice melts due to rising temperatures and due to it getting covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice.Sea ice decline comes with loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer, both of which accelerate the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can cause destablization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can result in eruption of huge amounts methane. A further danger is that the temperature rise will cause stronger wind, waves and storms, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and more ocean stratification, exacerbated by more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. In the North Atlantic, there is the added danger that formation of a freshwater lid will cause huge amounts of ocean heat to be pushed into the Arctic Ocean and enter the atmosphere as sea ice disappears. Further developmentsFurthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions can all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Moistening Atmospherehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Arctic Sea Ice Alerthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/arctic-sea-ice-alert.html• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, Arctic, feedbacks, heat, jet stream, latent heat, ocean, rise, temperature, water vapor]

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[l] at 6/24/24 1:20am
Currently, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere is higher than it was last year at this time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with University of Maine content. The image shows that a temperature of 21.1°C was reached in the Northern Hemisphere on June 17, 2024. The question is: Will temperatures over the next few months exceed the high temperatures reached last year?  El Niño is no longer prevalent and La Niña conditions are expected to be dominant soon, as illustrated by the NOAA ENSO update on the right, from an earlier post. Nonetheless, there are fears that temperatures will remain high and continue to rise, as self-amplifying feedbacks have taken over as the dominant drivers of the temperature rise. This was discussed earlier, in recent posts such as this one and this one. There are numerous feedbacks that can further accelerate the temperature rise. Higher temperatures come with more water vapor in the atmosphere, an important feedback since water vapor is also a potent greenhouse gas. Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, from an earlier post. Worryingly, a value of 26.138 kg/m² was reached in May 2024, much higher than the 25.378 kg/m² in May 2023, which raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. Rising temperatures are also behind the decline of sea ice and permafrost, which can in turn result in huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Deformation of the Jet Stream is another feedback. This occurs strongly in the Northern Hemisphere as the Arctic heats up more rapidly than the rest of the world, narrowing the temperature difference between the Tropics and the Arctic.Deformation of the Jet Stream can amplify extreme weather events such as storms that cause flooding and heatwaves that cause forest fires. [ click on images to enlarge ]Deformation of the Jet Stream also enables strong winds to develop over the North Atlantic, which can at times strongly accelerate the speed at which hot water is flowing toward the Arctic Ocean along path of the Gulf Stream.A deformed Jet Stream can temporarily speed up this flow, causing huge amounts of Ocean heat to get abruptly pushed into the Arctic Ocean in the path of the Gulf Stream.The image on the right shows hot water getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Arctic Ocean. The image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.3°C on June 22, 2024.Two tipping points threaten to get crossed as temperatures rise and Arctic sea ice disappears, i.e. the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point, as discussed in an earlier post. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links • Climate Reanalyzer, https://climatereanalyzer.org • Arctic Sea Ice Alert https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/arctic-sea-ice-alert.html • Have feedbacks taken over?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/have-feedbacks-taken-over.html • nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Two Tipping Pointshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, feedbacks, Laptev Sea, latent heat, Lena River, ocean, rise, seafloor methane, temperature]

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[l] at 6/11/24 4:35am
Temperatures are getting very high in the Northern Hemisphere. The image on the right shows maximum temperatures on June 10, 2024, with very high temperatures showing up over a large area around the North Pole. Temperatures can be expected to keep rising. The image underneath shows a forecast of maximum temperature on June 13, 2024, with very high temperatures showing up on land around the Arctic Ocean, above 20°C in Alaska, parts of Siberia and on an area in Greenland. This year, temperatures are extremely high, and this is especially the case for temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and in the North Atlantic. Temperatures in the North Atlantic strongly affect Arctic sea ice. As temperatures rise and the Jet Stream gets more deformed, heatwaves can extend over the Arctic, and huge amounts of ocean heat get suddenly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean in the path of the Gulf Stream. The image below shows the rising ocean heat content anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico, compared to the 2013-2023 mean, with anomalies recently reaching a new record high above 20 KJ per cm². North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies have risen strongly over the past few years, as illustrated by the image below that highlights anomalies from 1951-1980 for May 2022, May 2023 and May 2024.As illustrated by the image below, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly has moved higher recently. Consequently, Arctic sea ice extent is now in sharp decline, as illustrated by the image below. [ click on images to enlarge ]The above image shows that Arctic sea ice is not the lowest on record for the time of year. Extent is one way to measure sea ice, next to extent, there are further ways to measure Arctic sea ice, such as extent and area. NSIDC explains: A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. Therefore, if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger.Another measure is concentration. The image on the right, from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on June 9, 2024. Yet another measure is volume, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute.  The above image confirms that Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year. Volume is calculated by multiplying thickness with concentration and with area, which implies that Arctic sea ice is very thin, as also indicated by the image below, adapted from the University of Bremen. Some questions remain regarding the above images, e.g. whether the darkest color means that there is no sea ice left at all or there are meltpools on top of the ice. That's why it's always good to look at measurements from multiple sources.   Loss of sea ice comes with numerous feedbacks that accelerate the temperature rise, and just the temperature rise itself comes with feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere.  Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. Worryingly, a value of 26.138 kg/m² was reached in May 2024, much higher than the 25.378 kg/m² in May 2023, which raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Ominously, the image below shows high methane levels over Scandinavia, which could be the result of higher temperatures. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, the temperature anomaly in Scandinavia was high in May 2024. A study by Del Vecchi et al. (2024) suggests that a gradual thawing of Arctic permafrost could release between 22 billion and 432 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2100 if current greenhouse gas emissions are reined in — and as much as 550 billion tons if they are not.An analysis by Ramage et al. (2024) concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide.The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth.Note that the joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only covers part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon).  Miesner et al. (2023) warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks. Despite the dire situation, the IPCC keeps promoting less effective policies such as support for biofuel and tighter fuel efficiency standards, as discussed in earlier posts such as this 2022 one. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldyhttps://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japanhttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts• NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Centerhttps://nsidc.org• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thicknesshttps://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Copernicushttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Copernicus - Climate Pulsehttps://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Amplifying feedback loop between drought, soil desiccation cracking, and greenhouse gas emissions - by Farshid Vahedifard et al. (2024)https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2c23discussed on facebook athttps://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161298567849679• Subsea permafrost organic carbon stocks are large and of dominantly low reactivity - by Frederieke Miesner et al. (2023) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36471-z• Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon - by Yuanyuan Huang et al. (2024) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi7918discussed at facebook athttps://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161354439024679• Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage - by Sarah Weiskopf et al. (2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47872-7Discussed at Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161454674974679• Permafrost extent sets drainage density in the Arctic - by Joanmarie Del Vecchi et al (2024)https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2307072120Discussed at Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161248133064679• IPPCC AR6 Workgroup 1 Frequently Asked Questionshttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_05.pdf• Temperature rise may soon accelerate even morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, feedbacks, methane, sea ice]

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[l] at 6/2/24 11:32pm
Despite pledges by politicians to ensure temperatures would not cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial, the rate at which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing appears to be accelerating, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA and showing concentration of carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. For about one year now, global temperature anomalies have been extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, created with a screenshot from Copernicus, showing an anomaly from 1991-2020 of 0.84°C on May 31, 2024. [ image from earlier post ] What could be behind these persistently high temperatures? Many causes such as El Niño have been discussed in earlier posts, but even more daunting is the prospect that feedbacks have taken over as the dominant driver of the temperature rise. After all, short-term variables such as El Niño come and go, whereas self-emplifying feedbacks keep accelerating the temperature rise. The above anomalies are calculated from a 1991-2000 base. The temperature rise is even higher when anomalies are calculated from a pre-industrial base. [ from earlier post ][ from Moistening Atmosphere ] The above image, created with NASA content, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere, as the extinction page points out. The increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-amplifying feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. [ from earlier post ] Worryingly, data for the first four months of 2024 are way higher than they were in 2023 at the same time of year, which raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. The situation is depicted even more clearly on the image below, created with the same data. As said, more water in the atmosphere further accelerates the temperature rise. Furthermore, high relative humidity also makes high temperatures more unbearable. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature, i.e. once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C. A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al., 2022) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% relative humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C, as discussed in an earlier post. You can view the temperature in either °C or °F and the relative humidity for spots on Earth at nullschool, and then calculate the associated wet-bulb temperature here.There are numerous tipping points and non-linear, self-amplifying feedbacks that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the feedbacks page.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • United Nations - Adoption of the Paris Agreement (2015)https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts • NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org • Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Copernicus - Climate Pulse https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov • Very high temperatures in Tropicshttps://arctic-news.blogshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.htmlpot.com/2024/05/very-high-temperatures-in-tropics.html• Extreme heat stresshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html• Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSUHEAT Project) - by Daniel Vecellio et al. (2022)https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159973158374679• Temperature rise may soon accelerate even morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• wet bulb temperature calculatorhttps://www.mit.edu/~eltahirgroup/calTW.html• Convert the temperature between Celsius and Fahrenheithttps://www.convert-me.com/en/convert/temperature/?u=dcelsius&v=40• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html  

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: feedbacks, heat, humidity, rise, stress, temperature, vapor, water, wet bulb]

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[l] at 5/29/24 8:59pm
Temperatures in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) have been very high in 2024 (see black line, image below), much higher than they were at this time of year in 2023 (orange line). On May 23, 2024, the temperature was 26.6°C (or 79.88°F), an anomaly of 1°C (or 1.8°F) compared to 1979-2000. The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) from 1951-1980.  Note that the above-mentioned anomalies are compared to 1979-2000 and 1951-1980, neither of which is pre-industrial. The anomalies would be much higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows maximum temperatures on May 29, 2024. Climate Emergency Declaration The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org • Pre-industrial https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Temperature rise may soon accelerate even morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptionshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html Posts discussing Temperatures in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at: https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169104508720161 (update 6: May 11, 2024) https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169053955465161 (update 5: Apr 24, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169050918525161 (update 4: Apr 23, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169042787710161 (update 3: Apr 20, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161 (update 2: Mar 12, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (update 1: Mar 11, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161 (update: Feb 14, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161 (Feb 13, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161 (Jan 22, 2024)

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: pre-industrial, rise, temperature, tropics]

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[l] at 5/17/24 7:32pm
The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) remained very high during the first part of May 24, 2024. The temperature was 26.9°C (or 80.42°F) on May 11, 2024, an anomaly of 1.1°C (or 1.98°F) from 1979-2000. The above image shows that temperatures were very high during the second half of April 2024, and these very high temperatures were sustained during the first part of May 2024.  The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) from 1951-1980.  Note that the anomalies on the top image are calculated from 1979-2000 as a base, while anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, these anomalies will be much higher.These very high temperatures are causing widespread damage and are threatening to cause huge loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.htmlPosts discussing Temperatures in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at: https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169104508720161 (update 6: May 11, 2024) https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169053955465161 (update 5: Apr 24, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169050918525161 (update 4: Apr 23, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169042787710161 (update 3: Apr 20, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161 (update 2: Mar 12, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (update 1: Mar 11, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161 (update: Feb 14, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161 (Feb 13, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161 (Jan 22, 2024)

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: pre-industrial, temperature, tropics]

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[l] at 5/17/24 7:02pm
The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) remained very high during the first part of May 24, 2024, reaching a temperature of 26.9°C (or 80.42°F) on May 11, 2024, an anomaly of 1.1°C (or 1.98°F) from 1979-2000. The above image shows that temperatures were very high during the second half of April 2024, and these very high temperatures were sustained during the first part of May 2024.  The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) from 1951-1980.  Note that the anomaly in the top image is calculated from 1979-2000 as a base, while anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, these anomalies will be much higher.The high temperatures are causing widespread damage and are threatening to cause huge loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.htmlPosts discussing the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at: (update 6: May 11, 2024) https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169053955465161 (update 5: Apr 24, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169050918525161 (update 4: Apr 23, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169042787710161 (update 3: Apr 20, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161 (update 2: Mar 12, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (update 1: Mar 11, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161 (update: Feb 14, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161 (Feb 13, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161 (Jan 22, 2024)

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: pre-industrial, temperature, tropics]

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[l] at 5/14/24 12:47am
The April 2024 temperature is 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from NASA. Local anomalies are as high as 6.2°C. The April 2024 temperature was 1.62°C higher than 1900-1930, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from NASA. The red line highlights acceleration of the temperature rise.  The temperature anomaly is even higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The extinction page points out that such a rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.The image below, created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base.[ from earlier post ]The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024).The extinction page points out that a 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.FeedbacksThere is no single feedback behind the recent steep rise and acceleration, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-reinforcing feedbacks that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise. Such feedbacks include water vapor, storms, ocean stratification, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. Furthermore, developments such as the reduction in sulfur emissions over the past few years are further pushing up the temperature rise. Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Two tipping points threaten to get crossedThe danger is huge, the risk is unacceptable. Current global temperature anomalies are extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, showing anomalies from 1991-2000. The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic harder than elsewhere, as illustrated by the images adapted from NASA below and at the top. Contributing to these high temperatures in the Arctic are high temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.  The above image shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 21.4°C on May 12, 2024. High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now getting pushed up strongly from their annual minimum, in line with seasonal changes. Ominously, a peak of 25.4°C was reached in August 2023, i.e. 4°C higher than the current temperature.One tipping point that threatens to get crossed is loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with albedo change, which constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting, while less sunlight gets reflected back into space.[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, in this case the energy consumed as solid ice turns into liquid water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface. And as long as air temperatures over the Arctic are below freezing, sea ice can persist at the surface, maintaining sea ice extent, which may give the false impression that sea ice was healthy, whereas in fact sea ice is declining in thickness.  The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Loss of the latent heat buffer therefore constitutes a tipping point, i.e. once crossed, the Arctic Ocean will heat up at an accelerating pace. As the above map shows, much of the thicker sea ice is located away from the North Pole, such as off the east coast of Greenland, and that this sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with the change in seasons.Seafloor methane constitutes a second tipping point. When methane escapes from hydrates that get destabilized by rising temperatures, the methane will expand to 160 times its previous volume and enter the atmosphere with force. Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could cause large-scale destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.[ from earlier post ]The above image illustrates these two tipping points and Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Trends and tipping point estimates are added. The magenta trend is based on Jan.1880-Jan.2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend is based on Jan.2010-Jan.2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, and it warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at the Climate Emergency group.Links• NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.orghttps://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html• Blue Ocean Event 2024?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, Atlantic, hydrates, latent heat, methane, ocean, rise, sea oce, seafloor, temperature]

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[l] at 5/13/24 3:49am
 by Andrew GliksonWhere “Two plus two equals five if the party says so” (George Orwell)and when drilling methane wells reduces global warming Having turned a blind eye to climate science, ignoring the evidence that extreme atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) rise and ocean acidification have led to mass extinctions of species through time, humanity allows an exponential growth of carbon emissions to track toward a global suicide marked by false pretexts and betrayal by the powers that be. The evidence suggests unabated global warming will lead to 3.4 million Deaths Per Year by Century End, fatal consequences calling for a preemptive Nuremberg-like trial exposing the crimes leading to the looming climate suicide.Note the future estimates of CO₂ levels.[ Figure 1. Historic CO₂, by Owen Mulhern, image from Forster et al. (2017) ] Note the sharp current and near-future temperature rise. [ Figure 2. by Glen Fergus, from: Wikipedia - Temperature of Planet Earth ] The rise in CO₂ in the atmosphere and oceans and the rise in ocean acidity (decline in pH). [ Figure 3. As human activities have increased CO2 levels in our atmosphere (red line), about a third of that CO2 has been absorbed by the ocean (green line), andocean pH has decreased (blue line). Adapted from NOAA by UC Museum of Paleontology. ] According to the IPCC, as stated by the late Prof Will Steffen, Australia’s foremost climate scientist, if the exponential rise in greenhouse gas emissions continues we will already have crossed the upper limit that gives us a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to <2.0°C. Other scientists estimate that we have already missed the boat.During the 200-plus years since the onset of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels, changing land use and deforestation increased the concentration of atmospheric CO₂. As the ocean absorbs about 30% of the CO₂ its surface acidity increased by -0.1 pH units on a logarithmic scale, resulting in rising concentration of hydrogen ions, a process with far reaching implications for the survival of marine organisms, altering ecosystems.Ocean acidification affects marine life by dissolving shells and skeletons made from calcium carbonate. Organisms that produce calcium carbonate structures, like corals, sea urchins, sea snails and oysters, need to spend extra energy repairing damaged shells or thickening them to survive.The onset of the Sixth mass extinction of species. [ Figure 4. Cumulative vertebrate species recorded as extinct or extinct in the wild by the IUCN (2012). Dashed black line represents background rate. This is the ‘highly conservative estimate’. Source: Ceballos et al. (2015). ] There have been five Mass Extinction events in the history of Earth's biodiversity, all caused by dramatic natural phenomena. The current rate of extinction is 10 to 100 times higher than in any of the previous mass extinctions in the history of Earth. Incorporating estimates of the true number of invertebrate extinctions leads to the conclusion that the rate vastly exceeds the background rate and that we may indeed be witnessing the start of the Sixth Mass Extinction Island species have suffered far greater rates than continental ones.As systematic biologists, we encourage the nurturing of the innate human appreciation of biodiversity, but we reaffirm the message that the biodiversity that makes our world so fascinating, beautiful and functional is vanishing unnoticed at an unprecedented rate. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way.While multitudes of humanity are trying to escape climate disasters, such as Africa, or are engaged in fatal conflicts and geocidal wars, or are perched in front of electronic screens flaunting obscene hubris, cheap entertainment and commercial and political propaganda.It is far from clear who, apart from the children, would be able to save life on Earth? A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: acidification, Andrew Glikson, CO₂, extinction, mass, rise, temperature]

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[l] at 5/4/24 1:24am
The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the temperature in the year 2100, in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. The image shows how much the temperature will have risen in 2100, at 2 meters above the surface and compared to the period 1979-2000. The image below shows a progressive temperature rise reaching 4.589°C in 2100 compared to the same period, i.e. 1979-2000 and in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. The 1979-2000 period is relatively recent. The temperature has been rising for longer than that. The image below shows a progressive temperature rise reaching 4.91°C by 2100 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario when instead using a 1901-2000 period as a base. The 1901-2000 period is also relatively recent, much later than pre-industrial. When using a pre-industrial base, the temperature rise will be well over 5°C. As illustrated by the top image, the temperature rise over land will be much higher than over oceans, which makes the situation even more dire, given that most people live on land and could face a rise of  8°C by 2100 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.In a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario, temperatures are projected to keep rising strongly beyond 2100, as illustrated by the image below, from a 2016 paper by Brian O'Neill et al.  In the study by Brian O'Neill et al., CO₂ emissions keep rising until 2100, to then fall gradually to current levels, while the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere keep rising, to remain at levels beyond 2000 ppm and result in a temperature rise of 8°C by 2300 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.  Is CMIP6 SSP585 the worst-case scenario?To check whether CMIP6 SSP585 is indeed the worst-case scenario, one can look at how fast CO₂ is rising. According to the IEA, global energy-related CO₂ emissions grew in 2023, reaching a new record high of 37.4 Gt (or 10.098 GtC). The image below, from a recent post, confirms the recent acceleration in CO₂ concentrations, while shows the potential for CO₂ concentration to cross 1200 ppm before the year 2060.In other words, CO₂ may well be rising even faster than anticipated in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario, while this scenario doesn't take into account the potential for CO₂e concentrations to cross 1200 ppm much earlier than 2100 (inset), e.g. before 2060 as illustrated by the red trend in the main image. Furthermore, CMIP6 SSP585 doesn't take into account that, in addition to the temperature rise resulting from high greenhouse gas concentrations, crossing the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm in itself would push up temperatures by a further 8°C.  Indeed, the clouds tipping point could be crossed even earlier when also taking into account methane, nitrous oxide and further greenhouse gases, while there are additional developments such as carbon release from soils that could further raise both CO₂ concentrations and temperatures. The Extinction page and posts such as this one and this one warn about the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C unfolding as early as 2026.The IPCC has persistently downplayed the potential for these dangerous developments. The IPCC keeps hiding the need for the most effective climate action, while the IPCC instead keeps pointing at less effective policies such as support for BECCS and biofuel, and while the IPCC also keeps making it look as if there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, as if polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.Meanwhile, a 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 - by Brian O'Neill et al. (2016)https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/3461/2016• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 reporthttps://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023• September 2023, highest anomaly on record?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/september-2023-highest-anomaly-on-record.html• CO2 keeps acceleratinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/co2-keeps-accelerating.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• The Threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html• Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon - by Yuanyuan Huang et al. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi7918discussed at facebook at https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161354439024679• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/shortcomings-of-ipcc-ar6-wgiii-mitigation-of-climate-change.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: CMIP6, CO₂, IPCC, models, rise, SSP585, tipping point]

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[l] at 4/30/24 9:45pm
The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on April 24, 2024 of 27°C (or 80.6°F). The image below shows the monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through March 2024, when the anomaly reached a record high of 1.448°C (or 2.606°F).  Note that anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be much higher.The high temperatures are causing widespread damage and are threatening to cause huge loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.htmlPosts discussing the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at: https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169053955465161 (update 5: Apr 24, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169050918525161 (update 4: Apr 23, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169042787710161 (update 3: Apr 20, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161 (update 2: Mar 12, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (update 1: Mar 11, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161 (update: Feb 14, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161 (Feb 13, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161 (Jan 22, 2024)

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: pre-industrial, temperature, tropics]

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[l] at 4/30/24 8:22am
The image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has meanwhile passed its annual maximum. Over the coming months, volume can be expected to decrease rapidly. The image also highlights that, over the past few months, Arctic sea ice volume has been the lowest on record for the time of year. The image below illustrates the decline of Arctic sea ice volume over the years. The image also confirms that the annual maximum volume was recently reached and that it was the lowest maximum for the 24 years on record. Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this record low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface, keeping sea ice extent relatively large for now.This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months. Sea surface temperatures at record high The image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer screenshots, shows that the sea surface temperature (SST 60°S - 60°N mean) was 21.2°C on April 24, 2024, reaching yet another record high. [ image from earlier post ] These record high sea surface temperatures are reached as long-term sea surface temperatures are falling and as El Niño is predicted to weaken, which is fueling fears that feedbacks are kicking in with accelerating ferocity. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows global ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000, with the green line (LOcally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) giving a warning that higher temperature anomalies could be coming up. [ image from earlier post ] The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in March 2024 was 1.422°C when compared to a 1901-2000 base. The high anomalies over the past two months indicate how much heat has accumulated in the Atlantic, and these anomalies are even higher when using a pre-industrial base, as discussed earlier.The images also highlight the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean.Arctic sea ice under threatAs temperatures rise, many feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, including increased stratification of oceans, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and increased freshwater due to stronger melting of sea ice and glacial ice, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in ocean circulation.While this may look to cause less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean for now, the result is that a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that an influx of ocean heat can cause large amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.An enormous amount of ocean heat has accumulated and is still further accumulating in the North Atlantic and much of this heat threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream and extensions of this current into the Arctic Ocean, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.The danger is growing, due to a number of factors. Firstly, the amount of ocean heat in the North Atlantic is increasing. Secondly, Arctic sea ice volume is at record low, implying that there is little or no buffer left to consume ocean heat flowing from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, further heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized resulting in release of methane from these hydrates and from free gas underneath that was previously sealed by the hydrates. [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. Many of the dangers have been discussed in earlier posts, e.g. the danger that sea currents in the Arctic Ocean will change direction was discussed in this 2017 post. Climate Emergency Declaration The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org • NOAA - Ocean temperature anomalieshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/1/0/2015-2024?filter=true&filterType=loess • Copernicus sea surface temperature anomalieshttps://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu • Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptionshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html • Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html • North Atlantic heating up https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/north-atlantic-heating-up.html • Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• Transforming Society https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, heat, ocean, sea ice, volume]

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[l] at 4/29/24 7:35pm
The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on April 23, 2024 of 26.925°C (or 80.47°F). The image below shows the monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through March 2024, when the anomaly reached a record high of 1.448°C (or 2.606°F).  Note that anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be much higher.The high temperatures are causing widespread damage and are threatening to cause huge loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.htmlPosts about the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161 (update 2: Mar 12, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (update 1: Mar 11, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161 (update: Feb 14, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161 (Feb 13, 2024)https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161 (Jan 22, 2024)

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: pre-industrial, temperature, tropics]

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[l] at 4/28/24 5:49am
By Andrew Glikson “History is a nightmare from which I am trying to wake” (James Joyce) Figure 1. Extinctions CC from: The five mass extinctions in Earth History. The rate of the current rise of greenhouse gas levels and thereby temperatures is higher by more than an order of magnitude than that of previous mass extinctions. (Figures 11.2, 11.5). Glikson. A.Y., 2023 The Trials of Gaia.War ─ the mass sacrifice of young generations throughout history, culminating in the barbarism of empires such as the Roman “Pax Romana”, represents the repeated collapse of sanity with transient intervals such as the League of Nations between WWI and the impotent United Nations. More recent bloodsheds such as the Korean, Viet Nam, Rwandan and Middle Eastern wars, along with global heating and nuclear proliferation, herald the collapse of a species dominated by tribalism and the hubris of the 24-hour media cycle ─ A tale full of sound and fury told by an idiot signifying nothing (Macbeth, Shakespeare). In a human civilization dominated by mega-empires, armed to the teeth with planet-killer weapons, ruled by military juntas, industrial military complexes, Earth-poisoning energy corporations, multi-billionaires and media tycoon, the concept of “democracy” provides a fig leaf covering exploitation, repression and massacres. The potential consequences of a nuclear war appear to have escaped the mainstream media attention. There is little evidence of peace negotiations between the major adversaries and measures of averting accidental conflagrations, whether human error or the failure of a computer chip, have been minimized. Having betrayed the prospect of a peaceful future, the warring parties keep investing in $trillion-scale re-armament, covered by sophisticated terms such as self-defence, stability and the rules-based international order. Purporting a climate catastrophe can be averted by development of alternative energy despite a rise in the production of fossil fuels, growing emission of greenhouse gases (~4 ppm/year in 2023-2024), the rise in global temperatures toward +4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and the spate of extreme weather events. A nuclear armada aimed at all advanced life is expanded into space while the young generation is occupied with Tik-Tok games. According to climate science authorities (Hansen et al., 2016) “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleo-climate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”. According to Baronsky et al. (2017) “Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence.” and “Climates found at present on 10–48 % of the planet are projected to disappear within a century ... The mean global temperature by 2070, or possibly a few decades earlier, will be higher than it has been since the human species evolved”. Nor would the oceans fare better. According to Veron (2008): “The five mass extinction events that the earth has so far experienced have impacted coral reefs as much or more than any other major ecosystem. Each has left the Earth without living reefs for at least four million years, intervals so great that they are commonly referred to as ‘reef gaps’. The prospect of ocean acidification is potentially the most serious of all predicted outcomes of anthropogenic carbon dioxide increase. This study concludes that acidification has the potential to trigger a sixth mass extinction event and to do so independently of anthropogenic extinctions that are currently taking place.Alas, a majority of the world’s 8.1 billion humans is only partly aware of the looming demise of human civilization in the wake of its near to 10 millennia history and of the mass extinction of advanced species, allowing the “powers that be” to perpetrate the biggest crime against humanity and nature in history (Figure 2).  Figure 2. Henry Fuseli, The Nightmare (1781), in the Institute of Fine Arts, Detroit. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_Henry_Fuseli_-_The_Nightmare.JPGA/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, extinction, nightmare, war]

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[l] at 4/27/24 10:42pm
The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, reported a daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, of 428.63 parts per million (ppm) on April 26, 2024, as illustrated by the image below.  This is the highest daily average on record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few weeks.  The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the daily mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa on April 26, 2024, was 428.59 ppm, a difference of 4.7 ppm from April 26, 2023, while the weekly difference is 3.9 ppm. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record. Clouds Tipping PointThe image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) follows the recent acceleration in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere more than a linear trend (blue). Data used are NOAA Mauna Loa weekly average CO₂ data through the week starting on April 21, 2024.  The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed well before 2060, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier than 2060 when also taking into account methane. Monthly methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 400 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 428.63 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 828.63 ppm, i.e. only 371.37 ppm away from the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C. This 371.37 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Moreover, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the rise in CO₂e, as discussed at the Extinction page and this earlier post, which show the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C to unfold as early as 2026. A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. Environmental crimes The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide! [ from earlier post ] The image below is from the post Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.[ image from earlier post ] Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United Stateshttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts• Scripps Institution of Oceanographyhttps://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loahttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html • NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts• Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html • How long do we have? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html • Arctic Ocean February 2020https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/arctic-ocean-february-2020.html • Blue Ocean Event 2024?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html• Potential temperature trendshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• CO2 rise is acceleratinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/co2-rise-is-accelerating.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html pppp

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: accelerate, carbon dioxide, clouds tipping point, CO2, ecocide, extinction, growth, increase, rise]

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[l] at 4/26/24 9:22pm
The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on April 20, 2024 of 26.913°C (or 80.44°F). The image below shows the monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through March 2024. Note that anomalies in the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be much higher.The rise in temperature threatens to cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.htmlEarlier posts about the temperature rise in the Tropics in 2024 at facebook are at:Mar 19, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168930859815161 (update 2: Mar 12, 2024)Mar 18, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168929028460161 (update 1: Mar 11, 2024)Feb 22, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168860099940161 (update Feb 14, 2024)Feb 21, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168858418170161 (Feb 13, 2024)Jan 28, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10168795048860161 (Jan 22, 2024)

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: pre-industrial, temperature, tropics]

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[l] at 4/12/24 11:48pm
The North Atlantic Ocean is heating up, as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere. The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows sea surface temperatures up to April 11, 2024. The image shows that 2024 temperatures have been significantly higher than 2023 temperatures for the same date. The annual maximum temperature in 2023 was reached on August 31. Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically over the next few months, in line with the change in seasons. 2024 temperatures to exceed 2023 temperatures?The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows global ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000. The green line (LOcally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) could be a warning of higher temperature anomalies to come. Much will depend on the strength of the current El Niño over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 through March 2024, colored by El Niño/La Niña conditions. NOAA warns that there is a bit of a delay in the effects of any given ENSO phase. So, the first part of this year will still be influenced by El Niño. Further factors (other than El Niño) may continue to accelerate the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Arctic sea ice getting very thinThe image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface. This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.The image below warns that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• NOAA - Ocean temperature anomalieshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/1/0/2015-2024?filter=true&filterType=loess• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202403/supplemental/page-4• NOAA - ENSO update https://www.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/posts/821505663344434also discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161353804294679• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptionshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volumehttp://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Niño, ocean, rise, sea ice, temperature, thickness]

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