Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Temperature rise - September 2023 and beyond

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The above image, adapted from NASA and the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using the same baseline, illustrate the September 2023 temperature anomaly. September 2023 was the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record. What contributed to this?El Niño  The temperature rose about 0.5°C from November 2022 to March 2023, and this occurred at a time when we were not even in an El Niño yet, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post. Below is an updated image, from January 1950 to September 2023, adapted from NOAA [ click on images to enlarge ] [ click on images to enlarge ] The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from IRI. Further contributorsThere are further reasons why the temperature can be expected to keep rising beyond September 2023. The number of sunspots has been higher than predicted and looks set to keep rising above predicted levels until July 2025, as discussed here. The eruption of the submarine volcano near Tonga in January 2022 caused a lot of water vapor to reach high up into the atmosphere and this may still contribute to the temperature rise, as discussed here. Aerosols that have a cooling effect, such as dust and sulfates (SO₄), are also important. As fossil fuel is burned, sulfates are co-emitted. Since they pollute the air, measures have been taken and are being taken to reduce them, e.g. in shipping, and this has pushed up the temperature rise. Meanwhile, cooling aerosols such as sulfates are still high. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from nullschool.net, SO₄ was as high as 8.621 τ at the green circle on October 6, 2023, at 07:00 UTC. In future, SO₄ could fall dramatically, e.g. in case of a sudden economic collapse, reducing the aerosol masking effect rapidly and abruptly causing a substantial rise in temperature. After little change in the Antarctic sea ice extent graph for decades, extent loss was dramatic in 2022 and even more dramatic in 2023, as less and less sunlight was getting reflected back into space and instead was getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. Sea ice retreat comes with albedo loss, resulting in more heat getting absorbed in the Southern Ocean. A warmer Southern Ocean in turn comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, as discussed here and here. While albedo loss may have made little difference during Winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when little sunlight reaches the sea ice around Antarctica, open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page). The above image was created by Zach Labe with NSIDC data (Arctic + Antarctic) for each year from 1979 to 2023 (satellite-era; NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS). The image illustrates that global sea ice extent  recently reached the largest anomaly in the satellite record. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a climatological baseline of 1981-2010. 2016 is shown with a yellow line. 2023 is shown using a red line (updated 10/16/2023). Albedo loss matters a lot over time. The white band around -60° (South) on the image below, adapted from NASA, indicates that the Southern Ocean has long been colder than oceans elsewhere, but is catching up with the global temperature rise. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean. A recent study points out that this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally. The above image also illustrates that anomalies are highest in the Arctic, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, with the air flow slowing down accordingly.  [ image adapted from Copernicus ]This in turn changes the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, resulting in blocking patterns that can, in combination with rising temperatures, strongly increase the frequency, intensity, duration and area coverage of extreme weather events such as storms and lightning, heatwaves and forest fires. Forest fires in Canada have been releasing massive amounts of emissions that push up the temperature, including greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, warming aerosols such as black carbon & brown carbon and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic carbon) and carbon monoxide that reduce the availability of hydroxyl, resulting in more methane and ozone in the atmosphere. [ NH sea surface temperature anomaly ]At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current (AMOC) can result in more ocean heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.As temperatures rise, increased meltwater runoff from Greenland and more icebergs moving south, in combination with stronger ocean stratification and stronger storms over the North Atlantic, can also cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface of North Atlantic that can at times enable a lot of hot water to get pushed abruptly underneath this lid toward the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic ocean. Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.The next few months will be critical as Arctic sea ice is sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere, trapping heat underneath the ice and making it harder for ocean heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere above the Arctic. Furthermore, sea ice is very thin, reducing the latent heat buffer that could otherwise have consumed ocean heat. The next danger is that the thin Arctic sea ice will rapidly retreat early next year as a warming Arctic Ocean will transfer more heat to the atmosphere over the Arctic, resulting in more rain and more clouds in the atmosphere over the Arctic, speeding up sea ice loss and further pushing up the temperature rise over the Arctic, as discussed at the feedbacks page, which also discusses how less Arctic sea ice can push up temperatures through the emissivity feedback. As temperatures rise over the Arctic, permafrost on land also threatens to thaw faster, threatening to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.  Meanwhile, emissions of greenhouse gases keep rising, further pushing up the temperature, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.  [ Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA ]There are numerous further feedbacks that can accelerate the temperature rise and tipping points that can get crossed and cause even more abrupt rise of the temperature. One of these is the clouds tipping point that in itself can cause a temperature rise of 8°C, as discussed here. Further feedbacks are also discussed at the Extinction page. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, at a rate of 7% for each Degree Celsius the temperature rises. As temperatures keep rising, ever more water vapor will be sucked up by the atmosphere. This will also cause more droughts, reducing the ability of land to sustain vegetation and provide soil cooling through shading and through evaporation and formation of lower clouds, as discussed here. More water vapor in the atmosphere will also speed up the temperature rise because water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. This makes it critical to assess by how much the temperature has already risen. NASA data up through September 2023The image below, adapted from NASA, shows that the September 2023 NASA Land+Ocean temperature was 1.78°C higher than it was in September 1923. The anomaly is 1.74°C when compared to a base centered around the year 1900 (1885-1915). The 1.74°C anomaly can be adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, air temperature and higher polar anomalies (as shown in the box on the bottom right of the image), adding up to a potential anomaly of 2.73°C. Indeed, earlier analysis such as discussed here, points out that the temperature may already have risen by more than 2°C (compared to pre-industrial) in 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take action to combat the temperature rise to prevent this from happening. Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Sep.2023 data. Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan.2010-Sep.2023 data.The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1885-1915, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base, and has trends added.  ConclusionAlarms bells have been sounding loud and clear for a long time, as discussed in posts such as this one, warning that the temperature could rise by more than 3°C by 2026. The above magenta graph shows how this could occur as early as next year (end 2024).The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.Links• NASA - global mapshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps• NOAA - ENSO and Temperature barshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-4• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table• Nullschool.nethttps://earth.nullschool.net• NSIDC - sea ice graphhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Zach Labe - Global sea ice - extent, concentration, etc.https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc• NASA - zonal meanshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means• Copernicus - Northern Hemisphere wildfires: A summer of extremeshttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/northern-hemisphere-wildfires-summer-extremes• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United Stateshttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• NASA custom plotshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: accelerated, aerosols, Antarctica, clouds, El Niño, methane, rise, sea ice, temperature]

— September 2023, highest anomaly on record?

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The above image shows the temperature in 2023 as a bold black line, up to September 22, 2023, with the temperature reaching an anomaly of 1.12°C above the 1979-2000 mean for that day.The above image shows the temperature anomaly from the 1979-2000 mean. In blue are the years 1979-2022 and in black is the year 2023 up to September 25, 2023. A trend is added in pink based on 2023 data. [ click on images to enlarge ]Note that 1979-2000 isn't pre-industrial, the anomaly from pre-industrial is significantly higher. It looks like September 2023 will be the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record and the year 2023 will be the hottest year on record. The question is whether temperatures will keep rising. The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from IRI, and there is more to be taken into account.  Until now, February 2016 has been the hottest month on record. The above image, from an earlier post, shows that February 2016 was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896 on land, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial either and that sustained anomalies higher than 3°C are likely to drive humans into extinction. The image adds a poignant note: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer! The situation raises questions. How much has the temperature risen? Will the temperature keep rising? What can be done about it? How can these questions best be answered? The Paris Agreement mandate During the UN Climate Change Conference scheduled to be held from November 30 to December 12, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the first Global Stocktake of the implementation of the Paris Agreement will be concluded. The 2015 Paris Agreement mandate: Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by undertaking rapid reductions in emissions in accordance with best available science. Many assume that the temperature rise will only threaten to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the second half of this century and that by that time action will have stopped the temperature from rising, with the idea that an increase in carbon sequestration could make up for remaining emissions and avoid dangerous climate change. The question is whether such assumptions and decisions are indeed based on best available science, as opposed to political whim. Indeed, politicians are vulnerable to collusion with lobbyists feeding suggestions that there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters to enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Local People's Courts can best rule on such questions, after taking a closer look at points such as the following:  Rise from pre-industrial - While many politicians keep pushing the idea that 1.5°C above pre-industrial hasn't been crossed yet, we may already have crossed 2°C above pre-industrial, as discussed in this analysis.Policy choices - emission reductions are best achieved early, rather than late. Yet, many politicians keep supporting fuel (fossil fuel and biofuels) and envisage burning of fuel to continue well beyond 2050 (combined with BECCS). Instead, when taking into account damage to health and the environment, and the danger of runaway temperature rise, it should be clear that better policies must be implemented soon, such as local feebates, to support better methods and technologies such as biochar, heat pumps and eVTOL air taxis. Rising emissions - Politicians claim that merely stating to aim for net-zero emissions will suffice to reduce emissions, whereas the evidence shows that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have started to grow again, following minor Covid lockdown-related reductions in 2020, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.  [ Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA ]Carbon sink loss - Carbon sinks have long been taking carbon out of the atmosphere, but they are struggling and many may turn from sinks into sources and instead add carbon to the atmosphere. In 2023, nearly 2bn tons of carbon is estimated to have already gone up into the atmosphere in Canada up to now due to forest fires, far exceeding annual emissions tied to Canada’s economy (i.e. 670m tons). As temperatures rise, trees become more vulnerable to diseases and insects such as bark beetles. A 2020 study shows that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis. Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040. As temperatures rise, soils and vegetation will lose moisture to the atmosphere. The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration from the soil and vegetation, with the rise in land surface temperatures accelerating and vegetation decaying accordingly. Higher temperatures result in more extreme weather events, such as fires, droughts, storms, flooding and erosion, that can all contribute to further decrease the terrestrial carbon sink. The ocean is also struggling as a carbon sink, in part because increased river runoff and meltwater lowers alkalinity levels. Furthermore, warmer water holds less oxygen and is becoming more stratified and thus less able to supply nutrients to help plankton grow and store carbon. Hydroxyl loss - There is a danger that hydroxyl, the main way that methane gets broken down in the atmosphere, is declining or getting overwhelmed by the rise in methane, as described here.Heat sink loss - This recent study and this one warn that AMOC (the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) is slowing down faster than expected. A recent post warns that this can contribute to more hot water accumulating in the North Atlantic, as opposed to moving to greater depth. The post also warns that, as temperatures rise, less heat gets stored in oceans, because stratification increases and more heat can get transferred from oceans to the atmosphere as sea ice disappears. There also are indications that, over time, proportionally more heat is remaining in the atmosphere, while less heat gets stored on land. All this results in a hotter atmosphere.  Albedo loss - Loss of sea ice, loss of snow cover and warming oceans causing fewer bright clouds combine to reflect less sunlight back into space, as discussed here and here.  [ from: When will humans go extinct? ] [ Two out of numerous feedbacks ] Feedbacks - Important also is the accelerating rate of change. In many respects, we're in uncharted territory and changes are occurring faster than ever in Earth's history, which should be reason for caution and even more reason to plan ahead! The danger is growing that feedbacks are kicking in with ever greater ferocity, i.e. non-linear change. The image on the right, from an earlier post, illustrates how two self-reinforcing feedback loops can contribute to accelerate the Arctic temperature rise.[ click on images to enlarge ][ see the Extinction page ]Tipping Points - An even more dramatic form of non-linear change occurs when tipping points get crossed, and the consequences can be catastrophic for the entire world. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the danger that, as the latent heat and seafloor methane tipping points get crossed, the ocean temperature will keep rising as huge amounts of methane get released in the Arctic. It is essential to assess the danger of events and developments such as heat reaching and destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Seafloor methane is one of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page. Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.Conclusion Alarms bells have sounded loud and clear, such as here, warning that the temperature rise could be more than 3°C as early as in 2026. The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency. Links • Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world • The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table • Paris Agreement https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf • International Energy Agency (IEA) - Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2000-2022• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United Stateshttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declaration https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, feedbacks, methane, net-zero, Paris Agreement, pre-industrial, sink, stocktake, tipping points]

— A climate of Insanity

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

by Andrew Glikson As the emission of greenhouse gases continues, new fossil fuel projects are subsidized, global warming accelerates, bushfires and floods engulf the planet, climate science is ignored, climate change projections are kept away from the public eye, nations invest in killer submarines rather than water spraying aircraft and other fire-fighting equipment, politicians talk about clean coal, radioactive waters are spilled into the ocean, nuclear weapons are readied for a MAD scenario, the media reports sugar-coated semi or untruths, politicians routinely betray their original pledges and playboy billionaires fire rockets at space with plans to settle on Mars.Inherent in the nature of insanity is the fact that those inflicted by it are unaware of their mental state, nor are crowds of people or for that matter political parties, and business elites, leading populations to catastrophe, from the scale of Jonestown all the way to Auschwitz and Berlin to Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.Which has now reached a planet-wide scale. According to NASA former chief climate scientist James Hansen, the global temperature in the current El Niño is exceeding the previous El-Niño (2015-16) temperature rise rate of 0.18°C per decade, reflecting the current increase of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) and accelerated heating. The change is in part due to reductions of the cooling effect of human-emitted aerosols (Figure 1).  Figure 1. Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) during the El Niño origin year for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24 El Niños. The impact of El Niño on global temperature usually peaks early in the year following the year when the El Niño originated. Hansen et al., 2023. Despite consequent acidification of the oceans, atmospheric geoengineering using sulphur aerosols, reflecting solar radiation, is touted as a last defence from extreme temperature rise. To date, no effective method has been applied to a drawdown of greenhouse gases on a scale required to compensate for the emissions and rise in atmospheric CO₂ (Figure 2).  Figure 2. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels#global-fossil-fuel-consumption Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have started to grow again, following minor Covid lockdown-related reductions in 2020 (Figure 3).Figure 3. Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA.A rise to a mean global temperature to 3°C and 4°C this century is projected by the IPCC. Possibly even before such temperatures are reached, the flow of cold ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica could lead to transient regional to global temperature reversals (Hansen et al., 1998; Bronselaer et al. 2018). These authors state: “Meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to cause up to one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections.” (Figure 4)Figure 4. (a) Model surface air temperature (°C) change in 2055–2060 relative to 1880–1920 for modified             forcings representint the rise of temperatures in the tropics and decline in subpolar latitudes.            (b) Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several ice melt scenarios, representing stadial        (cooling) episodes related to the effects of ice melt (Hansen et al., 2016) and associated changes. According to Hansen et al. (2012) “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”. The habitability of Earth and the future of life are issues that are to a large extent avoided by the largely privately-owned corporate media and even by state media, occupied as they are by advertisements, sports contests, fashion parades, cooking shows and popular frenzies such as recently generated by the kissing of a football cup winner.Is there a way out for humanity and much of nature? If the multiple $trillions spent by Sapiens on the military and war were directed to environmental defence, including drawdown of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the possibility exists?A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, disintegration, Energy Imbalance, habitability, James Hansen]

— Seafloor methane tipping point reached

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The bold black line at the top of the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows extremely high sea surface temperatures up to September 13, 2023, much higher than in any previous year on record. The image below, created with NASA data, shows why these extremely high sea surface temperatures are so worrying. The image shows monthly mean global surface temperature anomalies (open ocean) vs 1901-1930. The ochre trend, based on January 1900-August 2023 data, indicates the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2021 and the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed in 2033. The red trend, based on August 2008-August 2023 data and better reflecting variables such as El Niño, indicates that the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed late 2023. Data show the seafloor methane tipping point was reached in August 2023. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average, 1901-1930 on the above image, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Sea ice constitutes a latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains at 0°C (273.15K or 32 °F). Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises.  [ The Latent Heat Buffer ] Once Arctic sea ice has become very thin, ocean heat that was previously consumed by melting the sea ice, no longer gets consumed by melting of the sea ice, and further incoming heat instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rapidly pushing up the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The latent heat tipping point has meanwhile been crossed. Loss of this buffer is linked to the seafloor methane tipping point, i.e. the point where additional heat reaches the seafloor and destabilizes hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor. This tipping point comes with multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops, such as explosive growth in methane volume setting off further destabilization, rapid rise of Arctic temperatures, loss of permafrost and loss of albedo, and release of further greenhouse gases. Crossing of the seafloor methane tipping point will occur later than crossing of the latent heat tipping point, i.e. the seafloor methane tipping point corresponds with a higher ocean temperature anomaly, estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1.35°C above the long term average. The current situation is particularly precarious in the Arctic, as the North Atlantic Ocean is very hot and the Gulf Stream keeps pushing hot water toward the Arctic Ocean, while Arctic sea ice has become very thin and the latent heat tipping point has been crossed. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat can reach sediments located at the seafloor, since much of the Arctic Ocean is very shallow and sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can contain vast amounts of methane. The danger is that additional heat will destabilize hydrates in these sediments, leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, and resulting in huge eruptions of methane both from the destabilizing hydrates and from methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates. [ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ] The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates that warnings have been given before about the danger of these two tipping points getting crossed in the Arctic. In the above image, the trends are based on annual sea surface temperature data for the Northern Hemisphere. The seafloor methane tipping point is estimated to correspond with ocean temperature anomalies reaching 1.35°C above the long term average.The image below further illustrates the high sea surface temperatures in and around the Arctic Ocean, with the red to yellow colors indicating temperature anomalies above the 1981-2011 average, and the green circle marking a sea surface temperature anomaly near the North Pole of 0.4°C on September 13, 2023.   The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow. [ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] Further adding to the danger is that destabilization of methane hydrates can cause huge amounts of methane to erupt with great force from the seafloor in the form of plumes. Consequently, little of the methane can be broken down in the water by microbes, while there is very little hydroxyl in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean to break down the methane that enters the atmosphere. [ click on images to enlarge ] Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the above NOAA image. The MetOp satellite image on the right shows methane levels, with the magenta color indicating the highest methane levels recorded at surface level (1000 mb), on September 15, 2023 am. The N20 satellite image underneath shows methane levels at an altitude corresponding with 487 mb on September 10, 2023 am. The magenta color again indicates the highest methane levels recorded at the time. Note the high levels over the Beaufort Sea and elsewhere over the Arctic Ocean, as well as high levels recorded over oceans in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate Emergency Declaration A catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and runaway heating could destroy all life on Earth. At 5°C heating, most life on Earth will have disappeared. When looking only at near-term human extinction, 3°C will likely suffice. The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society. Links • Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html • nullschool.nethttps://earth.nullschool.net • NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United Stateshttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts • NOAA - MetOp satellite records https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html • NOAA - N20 satellite recordshttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html• Two Tipping Pointshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html• Sea surface temperature at record highhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperaturehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• The Threat of Global Warming causing Near-Term Human Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html• FAQhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, heat, methane, ocean, rise, seafloor, temperature, tipping point]

— Methane eruptions threaten

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that on September 8, 2023, the North Atlantic sea surface reached a new record high temperature, of 25.4°C, even higher than the record reached the day before. The situation is critical! More heat entering the Arctic Ocean threatens to destabilize hydrates and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and enter the atmosphere. The image on the right, adapted from NASA Worldview, shows the poor state of the sea ice. On September 8, 2023, the Polarstern reached the North Pole. The image below shows the research vessel and the sea ice at the North Pole.  #Polarstern reaches the #NorthPole for the seventh time ?Five weeks after setting sail from Tromsø, our research vessel makes a stop at the northernmost point on Earth. #AWI https://t.co/iNxZYZUSk3?Esther Horvath pic.twitter.com/E4uuzosbtU— AWI Media (@AWI_Media) September 8, 2023 The image on the right, adapted from University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration and the route followed by the Polarstern. The threat is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. Erupting from the hydrates occurs at great force, since the methane expands 160 when decompressed, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere. After months of very high temperatures, the Arctic reached a new record high temperature for the time of year, i.e. 1.52°C on September 10, 2023, an anomaly of 2.25°C.Meanwhile, global sea ice extent is much lower than in any other year on record for this time of year.Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. ConclusionThe situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society.Links • Climate Reanalyzer - North Atlantic sea surface temperature https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • NASA Worldview https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov • Polarstern reaches North Pole - Research icebreaker at the northernmost point of the earth for the seventh time https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/single-view/polarstern-erreicht-nordpol.html • University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice concentration https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start • Arctic Data archive Systemhttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United Stateshttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Transforming Society https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, heat, hydrates, methane, ocean, Polarstern, rise, sea ice, temperature]

— Too late? The climate and nuclear juggernaut

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The Bulletin's Doomsday Clock by Andrew Glikson At 90 seconds to a midnight and a few decades to +4°C will ’sapiens’ end up on the beach? When elephants fight the grass dies (an African proverb) Under the guise of lies and cover-ups, the global powers to be have set the stage for the unthinkable, a world-wide hair-trigger human suicide system taking much of nature with it. With the exception of abstract ideas or experimental attempts, no actual steps are being taken to slow down, or even reverse, the inexorable rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases, now rising into Miocene-like levels of >400 parts per million CO₂ within the century, the fastest rise rate identified in the geological record.Nor are steps undertaken to try and dismantle the global doomsday fleet of more than 12,700 nuclear warheads, where space and the oceans have become nuclear playgrounds, enough to render large parts of the Earth uninhabitable. The criminal insanity of political, military, strategic, economic and scientific leaders, matched only by the naive blindness of billions of people, is consistent with what has been referred to as the ‘Fermi Paradox’ ─ the apparent absence of signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way, interpreted in terms of a self-destruction of such civilizations.Even at this stage, the litany of denial and betrayal never stops. Political leaders who have vowed to adhere to the science, shift to promote the mining and export of fossil fuels, as if greenhouse gases do not disperse in the atmosphere world-wide, or they adopt nuclear weaponry, as soon as they reach power. A suicidal element in human nature? While the multitudes are fixated on domestic issues and regional troubles, including genocidal conflicts and in corners of the world (Ukraine, Chechnya, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mein-Mar, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, and other), the price of maintaining an Orwellian ‘peace and stability ’, including ethnic cleansing, drowning refugees, economic hardships, misanthropic violence, football games, the tour de France, tennis rackets, relatively few are concerned with the deadly games of empire. Even symbolic gestures toward original people, like the “Voice” are being objected to. Arnold Böcklin, Self-portrait with Death playing the fiddle (1872)As in the history of Athens and Sparta, the stronger force is more inclined to start a war. Like schoolboys seeking association with bully alpha males, so do weaker nations look for the protection of an empire, which ends up using them as cannon fodder. It is more difficult to understand why, given the scientific and empirical evidence of global heating, intelligent people are prepared to sacrifice the future of their off-springs generations to the $multi-trillion fossil fuel industry and their advocates in governments. It would appear that, once representatives acquire real or apparent power, they leave conscience behind, adopting the Faustian bargain (Deal with the devil, image right). Where does responsibility lie? Where humans are caught up in the anthropogenic genome, not enough “good” angels exist. Where competition for food, shelter and reproduction are inherent, ethics, compassion and empathy may not be easy to find. Humanity may be more readily detected among small tribes than in large civilizations. A young child born in a bubble has few or no impressions impinging on its brain to respond to. By contrast children exposed to obscene violence and lies paraded on fluorescent screens are more likely to grow into distorted brain-washed multitudes.Greta ThunbergBut perhaps the most lethal human branch has become the media, which with few exceptions turned into a global propaganda machine skilful in distorting facts, promoting conflicts, manufacturing untruths, concealing avenues to peace and promoting wars in the tradition of Goebbels. Surprisingly, the only significant resistance to the genocidal behaviour of alpha male-dominated groups has arisen from the not-yet spoiled minds of children, led by the young Greta Thunberg. A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, Arnold Böcklin, Doomsday Clock, Faustian Bargain, Greta Thunberg]

— High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures hit the US again

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

Temperatures are highGlobally, temperatures have been at record high levels for the time of year for some time in 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. On August 25, 2023, the world temperature was 16.99°C, 0.94°C higher than it was on that day in 1979-2000. Extreme heat stress alertHigh Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures hit the U.S. over a large area, over a long time. Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures were forecast to be as high as 95°F or 35°C in Lufkin, Texas, on Monday August 21, 2023 at 4 am Central Time.Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures as high as 35°C were also forecast to be reached in Topeka, Kansas on the same day and at the same time, as illustrated by the image below.The image below shows forecasts for August 24, 2023, measured as temperature (left), apparent temperature (center) and wet bulb globe temperature (right), three areas with high values marked by squares, circles, and stars, respectively.  For descriptions of the various ways temperature can be measures, also see the earlier post Extreme Heat Stress. Unbearable conditionsThe images further illustrate that, as temperatures rise, conditions are increasingly occurring that make it hard, if not impossible for many species (including humans) to survive, even at relatively high latitudes. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts, such as in Humans may be extinct in 2026 and Two Tipping Points. In the video below, Guy McPherson gives his views on the situation. ConclusionThe situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society.Links• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily 2-meter Air Temperaturehttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature forecastshttps://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov• Extreme Heat Stresshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html• National Weather Service - Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: How and when to use ithttps://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT• Humans may be extinct in 2026https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html• Two Tipping Pointshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Guy McPherson, heatwave, relative humidity, temperature, wet bulb]

— Two Tipping Points

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the World Sea Surface Temperature (60°South - 60°North) was at a record high of 21.1°C or 69.98°F for the third day in a row on August 23, 2023. As the image also shows, sea surface temperatures over the past few months have been much higher for the time of year than in any other year on record.  The image below shows why this recent sea surface temperature rise is so worrying. The image below is based on NASA data for monthly mean global surface temperature anomalies (open ocean) vs 1901-1930. The ochre trend, based on January 1900-July 2023 data, indicates that the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2021 and the seafloor methane tipping point may be crossed by the end of 2033. Both trends extend into the future for 15 years, but the red trend is based on July 2008-July 2023 data and better reflects El Niño and other variables, and this red trend indicates that the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2023 and the seafloor methane tipping point may be crossed later this year.[ click on images to enlarge ] Sea ice constitutes a latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains at 0°C (273.15K or 32 °F). Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and wil do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises. [ The Latent Heat Buffer ] [ sea ice thickness, from earlier post ]Loss of this buffer is linked to subsequent destabilization of methane hydrates. So, there are two tipping points that are linked, and the latent heat tipping point gets crossed in the Arctic before the seafloor methane tipping point gets reached.The situation is particularly precarious in the Arctic, as the North Atlantic Ocean is very hot and the Gulf Stream keeps pushing hot water toward the Arctic Ocean, while Arctic sea ice has become very thin. The image on the right, from Uni of Bremen, shows that on July 25, 2023, there was virtually no Arctic sea ice left that was more than 30 cm thick. The latent heat tipping point is the point where Arctic sea ice loss is such that further incoming ocean heat that was previously consumed as Arctic sea ice melted, instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean. [ sea surface temperature anomaly ]The image on the right, adapted from nullschool.net, shows that on August 2, 2023, most of the Arctic Ocean was showing surface temperatures above the daily average during 1981-2011, indicating that the latent heat tipping point was reached. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to correspond with an ocean temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average, 1901-1930 on the above image.The image underneath, also from nullschool.net, shows the situation on August 20, 2023, when temperatures at the North Pole had been above zero for more than a day and temperatures were forecast to go below zero only twice briefly afterwards, for the period up to August 24, 2023 19:00 UTC (which is as far as the forecast went at the time. [ surface temperature ] This is a further indication that the latent heat tipping point has been reached and that no more heat can be consumed by sea ice melting. How much sea ice is left? What does the sea ice look like, near the North Pole? Satellite images can give a good impression, but clouds can obscure the view. A clearer view can be obtained by comparing images over several days. An animation can reveal how much, or rather how little sea ice is left, and to what extent water of the Arctic Ocean is visible. [ Satellite view, click on images to enlarge ]The animation on the right is made with four NASA Worldview images, showing the situation on August 11, 15, 16 and 19, 2023. The second tipping point, the seafloor methane tipping point, occurs as more heat reaches the seafloor where it destabilizes hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor. This tipping point comes with multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops, such as explosive growth in methane volume setting off further destabilization, rapid rise of Arctic temperatures, loss of permafrost and loss of albedo, and release of further greenhouse gases. Crossing of the seafloor methane tipping point will occur later than crossing of the latent heat tipping point, so the seafloor methane tipping point is estimated to correspond with a higher ocean temperature anomaly. The current situation is particularly precarious in the Arctic, as the North Atlantic Ocean is very hot and the Gulf Stream keeps pushing hot water toward the Arctic Ocean, while Arctic sea ice has become very thin (image right) and the latent heat tipping point has been crossed. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat can reach sediments located at the seafloor, since much of the Arctic Ocean is very shallow and sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can contain vast amounts of methane. The danger is that further heat will destabilize hydrates in these sediments, leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, and resulting in huge eruptions of methane both from the destabilizing hydrates and from methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates. [ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ] The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates that warnings have been given before about the danger of these two tipping points getting crossed in the Arctic. In the above image, the trends are based on annual sea surface temperature data for the Northern Hemisphere. The seafloor methane tipping point is estimated to get crossed when the ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere goes beyond 1.35°C above its long term average. The Argo Float 7900549 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of approximately 100 meters. The image shows temperatures as high as 5°C at that altitude. Stronger winds along the path of the Gulf Stream can at times speed up sea currents that travel underneath the surface. As a result, huge amounts of hot, salty water can travel from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean, abruptly pushing up temperatures and salinity levels at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, which in many places is very shallow. The above image shows details of Argo float 9701007, further illustrating the danger that heat can reach the seafloor. North of Norway, where the water is less than 400 m deep, temperatures higher than 5°C show up throughout the vertical water column, up to August 10, 2023, when temperatures above 11°C were recorded close to the sea surface. The colored inset also shows that greater mixing down of heat occurred from October to December 2022, as the sea ice started to return and seal off the surface, preventing heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere, as also discussed at FAQ #11. Below is another image adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, showing that the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean has for months been much higher for the time of year than it was in previous years on record. Eight causes behind this have been discussed in an earlier post. The image below shows the situation on August 28, 2023, with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reaching a record high of 25.34°C or 77.61°F.  The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows how the Gulf Stream is pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, while sea surface temperatures show up as high as 33.6°C or 92.48°F on August 17, 2023.  [ 2022 animation ] Studies, some of them dating back more than two decades, show that over the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) winds at times can mix the water column from the top to the bottom. A 2005 study of the ESAS led by Igor Semiletov recorded water temperatures at the seafloor, in September 2000, of 4.7°C at 20m depth at one location and 2.11°C at 41m depth at another location, with salinity levels of 29.7‰ and of 31.7‰, respectively. A deformed Jet Stream, in combination with a cyclone, could similarly result in strong winds abruptly pushing a huge amount of heat through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean.  The animation on the right shows how remnants of Typhoon Merbok were forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from September 17 to 19, 2022. The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the (2-meter) air temperature in the Arctic was 3.79°C on August 25, 2023, a record high for the time of year and 2.08°C higher than the 1979-2011 mean for that day. The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow. [ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] Further adding to the danger is that destabilization of methane hydrates can cause huge amounts of methane to erupt with great force in the form of plumes. Consequently, little of the methane can be broken down in the water by microbes, while there is very little hydroxyl in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean to break down the methane that enters the atmosphere. Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA images below. The most recent monthly methane average recorded at Barrow, Alaska, is above 2080 parts per billion. In the video below, Guy McPherson describes the dire situation. Climate Emergency DeclarationA catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and runaway heating could destroy all life. At 5°C heating, most life on Earth will have disappeared. When looking only at near-term human extinction, 3°C will likely suffice. The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society. Links• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperaturehttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily• Climate Reanalyzer - daily 2-meter air temperaturehttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysishttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• nullschool.nethttps://earth.nullschool.net• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United Stateshttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Argo Floathttps://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu• Remnants of Typhoon Merbok forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from September 17 to 19, 2022.Discussed at https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10166948876390161, from: https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• The East Siberian Sea as a transition zone between Pacific-derived waters and Arctic shelf waters - by Igor Semiletov et al. (2005)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022490• Sea surface temperature at record highhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperaturehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• The Threat of Global Warming causing Near-Term Human Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html• FAQhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Guy McPherson, hydrates, Igor Semiletov, latent heat, methane, rise, sea surface, temperature, tipping point]

— Return of the Blob?

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The Blob is a large mass of water with relatively high heat content, floating at the surface and underneath the surface of the North Pacific Ocean. The Blob did appear several times before, including in 2016, which was a strong El Niño year. The above image shows high sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific on August 10, 2023, raising the question of whether this constitutes a return of the Blob. As temperatures rise, the Arctic is heating more rapidly than the rest of the world. The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics is weakening the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth and this is making the jet stream more wavy. In a 2012 study, Jennifer Francis et al. warned that this makes atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere more likely, aggravating extreme weather events related to stagnant weather conditions, such as droughts, flooding and heatwaves. The Blob appears to be the marine version of a heatwave on land.The image below shows that, on August 12, 2023, sea surface temperatures were as much as 7°C or 12.6°F higher than 1981-2011 in the Pacific Ocean (at the green circle, follow the arrow). A strongly deformed Jet Stream shows many circular wind patterns, prolonging, intensifying and increasing the occurrence of extreme weather events such as accumulation of heat during heatwaves.  Is the Kuroshio Current slowing down? The Kuroshio Current is an ocean current that carries heat along its path in the North Pacific, similar to the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic Ocean. Is the Kuroshio Current slowing down as temperatures rise and is such slowing down causing hot water to accumulate in the western part of the North Pacific, leading to a return of a new Blob moving across the North Pacific toward the coast of North America? The North Atlantic has been experiencing record high sea surface temperatures recently. A return of the Blob increases the danger of more heat reaching sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. [ 2022 animation ] The animation on the right shows how remnants of Typhoon Merbok were forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from September 17 to 19, 2022. Studies, some of them dating back more than two decades, show that over the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) winds at times can mix the water column from the top to the bottom. A 2005 study of the ESAS led by Igor Semiletov recorded water temperatures at the seafloor, in September 2000, of 4.7°C at 20m depth at one location and 2.11°C at 41m depth at another location, with salinity levels of 29.7‰ and of 31.7‰, respectively. A deformed Jet Stream, in combination with a cyclone, could result in strong winds abruptly pushing a huge amount of heat through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This could cause methane hydrates to destabilize and huge amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor and enter the atmosphere. Conclusion The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society. Links • The Blob https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean) • Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes, by Jennifer Francis et al. (2012)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051000  • The Kuroshio currenthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuroshio_Current • Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html• Remnants of Typhoon Merbok forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from September 17 to 19, 2022.Discussed at https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10166948876390161, from: https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• The East Siberian Sea as a transition zone between Pacific-derived waters and Arctic shelf waters - by Igor Semiletov et al. (2005)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022490• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, Blob, heatwave, Igor Semiletov, Jennifer Francis, jet stream, Kuroshio Current, methane, ocean]

— Arctic sea ice August 2023

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

Arctic Ocean heating up There are at least five mechanisms that cause the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, as described below.  1. Direct Heat. Heat from sunlight directly reaches the surface, i.e. the sea ice or the water of the Arctic Ocean. The August 8, 2023, image on the right, from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a 1-3 days forecast of maximum surface temperatures (2m). Heatwaves over land can extend over the Arctic Ocean.  High levels of emissions and greenhouse gases over the Arctic increase the amount of heat that is reaching the water of the Arctic Ocean and the sea ice.  The NASA satellite image below shows smoke from forest fires in Canada moving over the Beaufort Sea and over the sea ice on August 6, 2023.  [ click on images to enlarge ] A recent study highlights that forest fires can strongly contribute to the temperature rise. Smoke, soot and further aerosols settling on the sea ice also darken the surface, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed (feedback #9 on the feedbacks page). The image on the right, from a Copernicus news release dated August 3, 2023, shows the dramatic growth in emissions from fires in Canada up to end July 2023. The news release quotes Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service senior scientist, Mark Parrington, who comments: "As fire emissions from boreal regions typically peak at the end of July and early August, the total is still likely to continue rising for some more weeks." The Climate Reanalyzer image below shows that the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year of 5.64°C or 42.15°F on August 9, 2023. Earlier, a record temperature of 5.81°C or 42.46°F was reached (on July 27, 2023). Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent half September, when temperatures in the Arctic fall below 0°C and water at the surface of the Arctic Ocean starts refreezing. 2. Heat from Rivers. Hot water from rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean is another way the water is heating up and this is melting the sea ice from the side. The August 10, 2023, image below, from nullschool.net, illustrates the added impact of heat that is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, with sea surface temperatures as high as 20.4°C or 68.7°F recorded at a location where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean (at the green circle, where the green arrow is pointing at). On August 6, 2023, the sea surface was 14.5°C or 26.2°F hotter than in 1981-2011, at a nearby location where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below. The image on the right shows that on August 10, 2023, the sea surface temperature was 17.6°C or 63.7°F at a location where the Lena River in Siberia enters the Arctic Ocean, i.e. 14.2°C or 25.5°F hotter than it was in 1981-2011 (at green circle).The Lena River flows into the Laptev Sea which is mostly less than 50 meters deep, making it relatively easy for surface heat to reach the seafloor. The NOAA image underneath on the right shows sea surface temperatures in the Bering Strait as high as 19.2°C or 66.56°F on August 8, 2023. The image illustrates that the water can heat up strongly where hot water from rivers and run-off from rainwater enters the Bering Strait.3. Ocean Heat. Yet another mechanism is heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean from other oceans, i.e. from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Sea ice underneath the sea surface is melting from below due to ocean heat. An earlier post discusses why we are currently facing record high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.The image below shows how the Gulf Stream is pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, while sea surface temperatures show up as high as 33.1°C or 91.58°F on August 9, 2023. The Gulf Stream is an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as pictured below and discussed at this page. This ocean current is driven by the Coriolis force and by prevailing wind patterns. [ from earlier post ]This ocean current contributes to the stronger and accelerating rise in temperature in the Arctic (compared to the rest of the world), which in turn causes deformation of the Jet Stream that can at times cause strong winds that speed up this ocean current, as discussed in earlier post such as this 2017 one. [ from earlier post ]4. Sea ice moving out. The Arctic Ocean is also heating up as sea ice is getting pushed into the Atlantic Ocean. Even the thickest sea ice can break up into pieces and move along with the flow of meltwater from glaciers, ocean currents and/or strong wind. [ Click on images to enlarge ]The animation below, created with NASA Worldview satellite images, shows the northern tip of Greenland at the top left of each frame. The green square on the image on the right indicates the area of the animation. It's around Prinsesse Thyra Island in Northeast Greenland National Park. This is where typically the thickest sea ice is located. The animation shows the sea ice breaking up and moving out of the Arctic Ocean. What is left of the pieces will eventually melt in the Atlantic Ocean. Pieces of sea ice that are pushed out of the Arctic Ocean reduce the latent heat buffer, as they can no longer consume heat in the Arctic Ocean through melting.  5. Sea ice sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphereThe sea ice used to reach its lowest extent approximately half September. With the change in seasons, air temperatures decrease and sea ice starts increasing in extent at the sea surface. The image below illustrates how, as the Arctic Ocean starts freezing over, less heat will from then on be able to escape to the atmosphere. Sealed off from the atmosphere by sea ice, greater mixing of heat in the water will occur down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in FAQ#21.[ From the post September 2015 Sea Surface Warmest On Record ]In October, sea ice has stopped melting and is increasing in extent at the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Also, as land around the Arctic Ocean freezes over, less fresh water will flow from rivers into the Arctic Ocean, while hot, salty water will continue to flow into the Arctic Ocean. As a result, the salt content of the Arctic Ocean increases, all the way down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, increasing the danger that ice in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor will melt, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape and enter the atmosphere.[ Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006) ]Warmer water reaching these sediments can penetrate them by traveling down cracks and fractures in the sediments, and reach the hydrates. The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment. Such conduits were formed when some of the methane did escape from such hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast and reach methane hydrates that keep methane in cages of ice. As heat reaches the ice cages, a temperature rise less than 1°C can suffice to destabilize such cages, resulting in a huge abrupt eruption, as the methane expands more than 160 times in volume.[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]Further increasing the danger, this return of the sea ice results in less moisture evaporationg from the water, which together with the change of seasons results in lower hydroxyl levels at the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in turn resulting in less methane getting broken down in the atmosphere over the Arctic.Feedbacks and further developmentsMore generally, the rapid temperature rise threatens to cause numerous feedbacks to accelerate and further developments to occur such as crossing of tipping points, with the danger that the temperature will keep rising.In the video below, Peter Carter, Paul Beckwith and Dale Walkonen discuss the situation. One such feedbacks is the formation and growth of a cold freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables large amounts of salty and relatively hot water to flow underneath this lid and underneath the remaining sea ice, to enter the Arctic Ocean, as discussed earlier here, as well as here and at the feedbacks page.This further increases the danger of destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below. Conclusion The situation is dire and the outlook is getting more grim every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan and as most recently discussed at Transforming Society. Links • Climate Reanalyzer - Outlook Forecast Maps https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=arc-lea&ndays=d1-3 • NASA - Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov• Shortwave absorption by wildfire smoke dominated by dark brown carbon - by Rajan Chakrabarty et al.https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01237-9discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160935394954679• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily 2-meter Air Temperaturehttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily• Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Chartshttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaskahttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperaturehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html• NASA Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov• Copernicus news release - 2023 Canada wildfires emissions have already doubled previous annual record (August 3, 2023)https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/2023-canada-wildfires-emissions-have-already-doubled-previous-annual-record• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decadehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Dire situation gets more dire every day https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/dire-situation-gets-more-dire-every-day.html• The Threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, Dale Walkonen, ocean, Paul Beckwith, Peter Carter, rise, sea ice, temperature]

— Betrayal: The threat to life on Earth

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

by Andrew Glikson It has been overlooked during Garma festival that, under current policies, global warming would render aboriginal lands in central and northern Australia unliveable and the top-end a nuclear target…In his classic book The Fate of the Earth speaking for humanity Jonathan Schell describes the horror of a full-scale nuclear holocaust where human beings and animals would die if twenty thousand megatons of bombs, more than a million times the Hiroshima bomb, explode.The consequences of a global nuclear exchange belong to the unthinkable. Nuclear weapons are the most destructive, inhumane and indiscriminate weapons ever created. Both on the scale of the devastation they cause and uniquely persistent genetically damaging radioactive fallout, they are unlike any other weapons. A single nuclear bomb detonated over a large city could kill millions of people. The use of tens or hundreds of nuclear bombs would disrupt the atmosphere world-wide, causing widespread famine. [ Figure 1. Extreme geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological events during 1980 -2012 ] From the 1970s the full implications of climate change were only beginning to be realized, through a growing string of cyclones, fires, droughts and floods increasing in frequency and intensity above the recent historical record (Figure 1). At that time few could forecast the climate trajectory like NASA’s chief climate scientist (Hansen et al., 2012), who stated: “Burning all the fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes” and “warming according to the IPCC Business As Usual’ (BAU) scenario would lead to a disastrous multi-meter sea level rise on the century timescale” and “We’ve reached a point where we have a crisis, an emergency, but people don’t know that” ... [ Figure 2. credit: NOAA, click on images to enlarge ] According to Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s chief climate scientist “Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences” … [ Figure 3. The five mass extinctions in the Earth’s history. ] Within a century or less the Earth’s mean temperature has risen from the mean levels of the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) and the Pleistocene (11,700 years ago to 2.58 million years ago), to levels of the Pliocene (2.58 million years ago to 5.333 million years ago) to the Miocene (5.33 to 23.03 million years ago), 3 - 4°C warmer than the Holocene, at warming rates. This is faster than any identified in the Cenozoic (66 million years until the present) geological record (Glikson, 2022-23). It is difficult to find in the geological record an event increasing the global greenhouse level at a rate as extreme as the current global heating (Figure 4).[ Figure 4. Past mean temperatures (200 AD to 2000 AD), current warming and future temperature projections (Steffen, 2012) ] A nuclear war would represent the ultimate outcome of tribalism, nationalism, racism and war, the human propensity for mutual and self-destruction. There was a time when kings and generals would fall on their sword when they were defeated, or when their faith in their gods collapsed. Nowadays oblivious or non-caring world powers continue to proliferate nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert, mine coal and pump oil and gas, starting a greenhouse chain reaction. Leaders, so-called, opportunistically betray the defence of their own people and the future of their children. The voices of anti-nuclear and climate scientists have become subdued, ignored or betrayed. There may not be too many historians to document the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries crimes against humanity and against nature.An explanation of the collapse of human society, dragging multiple species down with it, arises from Fermi’s Paradox, where the combination of technological achievements and an inherent killer instinct of some leads to collapse. Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, collapse, extinction, extreme weather]

— Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT) are forecast to hit Louisiana, United States, over the next few days. The image below shows a forecast for August 2, 2023, 18 UTC, with WBGT as high as 35°C forecast for a location 10 miles South East of Abbeville, Louisiana, U.S. WBGT is a measure used by weather.gov to warn about expected heat stress when in direct sunlight. It takes into account the effect of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation on humans.As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a tipping point can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure.A 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al.) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.The above image shows a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C (95°F) forecast for August 11, 2023, 19 UTC, for a location near Baton Rouge, Louisiana, U.S. Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, as illustrated by the above image (credit: NOAA). Heat fatalities may be conservative figures. Recent research finds that where heat is being listed as an official cause of death, this likely underestimates the full toll of these events. Extreme heat can trigger heart attacks and strokes. In addition, some heart disease risk factors, such as diabetes—as well as heart medications, such as diuretics and beta blockers—can affect a person’s ability to regulate their body temperature and make it difficult to handle extreme heat. The study finds that extreme heat accounted for about 600-700 additional deaths from cardiovascular disease annually. A recent study estimates that extreme heat accounted for 12,000 premature deaths in the contiguous U.S. from 2000 to 2010, and a recent analysis calculates that the summer 2022 heatwave killed 61,000 people in Europe alone. The image below shows a temperature (°F) forecast for August 1, 2023, from Climate Reanalyzer. The video below discusses this. Misery IndexThe image below show a high reading on the 'Misery Index', the perceived ('feels like') temperature that is used by nullschool.net, combining wind chill and the heat index (which in turn combines air temperature and relative humidity, in shaded areas). A Misery Index temperature of 56.1°C or 133.1°F was recorded at a location off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (green circle) on August 5, 2023.The temperature at that location at the time was 35.2°C or 95.4°F, lower than the temperature on the land surrounding the Gulf, but the relative humidity at that spot over the water was 78%, and that combination led to this very high 'feels like' temperature. This constitutes a warning. The sea, rivers and lakes are traditionally seen as places to go to, to cool off. However, high temperatures combined with high humidity over water bodies can result in conditions that go beyond what humans can bear. Climate change danger assessmentThe image below, earlier discussed here, expands risk assessment beyond its typical definition as the product of the severity of impact and probability of occurrence, by adding a third dimension: timescale, in particular imminence. Imminence alone could make that the danger constituted by rising temperatures needs to be acted upon immediately, comprehensively and effectively. While questions may remain regarding probability, severity and timescale of the dangers associated with climate change, the precautionary principle should prevail and this should prompt for action, i.e. comprehensive and effective action to reduce damage and improve the situation is imperative and must be taken as soon as possible. Rapidly rising temperatures constitute tipping points in several ways Firstly, there is a biological threshold beyond which rising temperatures become lethal for humans, as discussed above. Secondly, as Gerardo Ceballos describes in the video below and in a 2017 analysis, there is a biological tipping point that threatens annihilation of species via the ongoing sixth mass extinction. Researchers such as Gerardo Ceballos (2020), Kevin Burke (2018) and Ignation Quintero (2013) have for years warned that mammals and vertebrates cannot keep up with the rapid rise in temperature. Humans are classified as vertebrate mammals, indicating that we will not avoid the fate of extinction, Guy McPherson (2020) adds. Thirdly, there are further tipping points, e.g. social-political ones. On the one hand, it would be good if people became more aware, as this could prompt more people into supporting the necessary action. On the other hand, as temperatures keep rising, there is also a danger that panic will break out, dictators will grab power and civilization as we know it will collapse abruptly, as warned about earlier, e.g. in 2007.   ConclusionIn conclusion, to combat rising temperatures, transforming society is needed urgently, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with declaration of a climate emergency.Links• Wet Bulb Globe Temperaturehttps://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov• National Weather Service - Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: How and when to use ithttps://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT• The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance - by Colin Raymons et al. (2020)https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838• Brief periods of dangerous humid heat arrive decades earlyhttps://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/brief-periods-dangerous-humid-heat-arrive-decades-early• Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project) - by Daniel Vecellio et al. (2022) https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021Discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159973158374679• NOAA - Weather Fatalities 2022https://www.weather.gov/hazstat• The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States - by Drew Shindell (2021)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000234• Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 - by Joan Ballester et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-zDiscussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160875637104679• As Temperatures Spike, So Do Deaths from Heart Disease (2022 News release)https://www.acc.org/About-ACC/Press-Releases/2022/03/22/20/06/As-Temperatures-Spike-So-Do-Deaths-from-Heart-Disease• Association of Extreme Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: A County-Level Longitudinal Analysis From 2008 to 2017 - by Sameed Khatana et al. (2022)https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.060746• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1Discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156903792219679• When will we die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Reanalyzer - Hourly Forecast Mapshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=nam&dm_id=conus-lc&wm_id=t2• PBS video - Too HOT and HUMID to Live: Extreme Wet Bulb Events are on the Rise https://www.pbs.org/video/too-hot-and-humid-to-live-extreme-wet-bulb-events-are-on-th-fazocs• Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• How agriculture hastens species extinction | 60 Minutes (CBS News) | Gerardo Ceballoshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=f21WWocqR-c• Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines - by Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich and Rodolfo Dirzo (2017)https://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089• Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction - by Gerardo Ceballos, Paul Ehrlich, and Peter Raven (2020)https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/27/1922686117Discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10158460232764679• Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species - by Ignatio Quintero et al. (2013) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12144• Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates - by Kevin Burke et al. (2018)https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1809600115Discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156972951354679• Earth is in the Midst of Abrupt, Irreversible Climate Change - by Guy McPherson (2020)https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdfDiscussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160004947844679• Ten Dangers of Global Warminghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/ten-dangers-of-global-warming.html• Extreme heat stresshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Drew Shindell, extreme, feedback, feels like, Gerardo Ceballo, Guy McPherson, heat stress, heatwave, humidity, Ignatio Quintero, Joan Ballester, Kevin Burke, rise, Sameed Khatana, temperature, tipping point, wet bulb]

— Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

On July 25, 2023, the North Atlantic sea surface reached a record high temperature of 24.9°C. The previous record was in early September 2022, when the temperature peaked at 24.89°C, according to NOAA scientist Xungang Yin and as illustrated by the image below. In previous years, a La Niña was suppressing temperatures, whereas El Niño is now pushing up temperatures. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent about half September. We are facing huge sea ice loss over the coming weeks. Temperatures are very high (and rising) and the following eight points contribute to this rise: 1. Emissions are high and greenhouse gas levels keep rising, and this is increasing Earth's Energy Imbalance. Oceans take up 89% of the extra heat. 2. El Niño is pushing up temperatures, whereas in previous years La Niña was suppressing temperatures. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post. In February 2016, when there was a strong El Niño, the temperature on land was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter than February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial, the difference will be even larger when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. The above image, from an earlier post discussing extreme heat stress, adds a poignant punchline: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer! [ click on images to enlarge ] 3. Sunspots in June 2023 were more than twice as high in number as predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a global temperature difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found. 4. A submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022 did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post and also at facebook. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this further contributes to speeding up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the eruption will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.5. Aerosol changes are also contributing to the temperature rise, such as less Sahara dust than usual and less sulfur aerosols that are co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion, which previously masked the full impact of greenhouse gases. 6. The Jet Stream is getting increasingly deformed as the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics narrows, and this can strongly increase the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. The image on the right shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as much as 8.2°C or 14.7°F higher than 1981-2011 (green circle) on July 24, 2023. The image also shows that the Jet Stream is very deformed and features many circular patterns that contribute to stronger heating up of the North Atlantic, especially along the path of the Gulf Stream where the Jet Stream has a strong presence.Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to stronger heatwaves on land that extend over the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can also strongly heat up the water of rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows huge amounts of heat surrounding Arctic sea ice and also shows that on July 28, 2023, the sea surface was as much as 19.7°C or 35.4°F hotter than 1981-2011 at an area where the Ob River meets the Kara Sea (green circle).7. AMOC (the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) is slowing down, further contributing to more hot water accumulating in the North Atlantic. Instead of reaching the Arctic Ocean gradually, a huge part of this heat that is now accumulating in theNorth Atlantic may abruptly be pushed into the Arctic Ocean by strong storms that gain strength as the Jet Stream gets increasingly deformed. This danger grows as more ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and this situation threatens to cause huge eruptions of methane from the seafloor.  8. Increased stratification, as temperatures rise, combines with increased meltwater and with stronger evaporation over the North Atlantic and stronger precipitation further down the path of the Gulf Stream. This threatens to result in the formation of a freshwater lid on top of the North Atlantic, enabling more hot water to flow underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, further increasing the methane threat. Arctic reaches record high air temperatureThe Arctic reached a record high 2-meter air temperature of 5.81°C on July 27, 2023, almost 2°C higher than the daily mean for the period 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent half September, when the temperature in the Arctic falls below 0°C and water at the surface starts refreezing.  One danger is that, as more heat is reaching sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, hydrates will be destabilized, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor. As sea ice melts away, less sunlight gets reflected back into space, so more heat will reach the Arctic ocean and heat up the water, as discussed at the albedo page. Furthermore, Arctic sea ice is already very thin, as illustrated by the image on the right. The thinner the sea ice, the less heat can be consumed in the process of melting the ice, as discussed at the latent heat page. These are just three out of numerous developments that could unfold in the Arctic soon, such as tipping points getting crossed and feedbacks starting to kick in with greater ferocity, as discussed in an earlier post. Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks pageFeedbacksSyee Weldeab et al., in a 2022 study, looked at the early part (128,000 to 125,000 years ago) of the penultimate interglacial, the Eemian, when meltwater from Greenland caused a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). “What happens when you put a large amount of fresh water into the North Atlantic is basically it disturbs ocean circulation and reduces the advection of cold water into the intermediate depth of the tropical Atlantic, and as a result warms the waters at this depth,” he said. “We show a hitherto undocumented and remarkably large warming of water at intermediate depths, exhibiting a temperature increase of 6.7°C from the average background value,” Weldeab said. Weldeab and colleagues used carbon isotopes (13C/12C) in the shells of microorganisms to uncover the fingerprint of methane release and methane oxidation across the water column. “This is one of several amplifying climatic feedback processes where a warming climate caused accelerated ice sheet melting,” he said. “The meltwater weakened the ocean circulation and, as a consequence, the waters at intermediate depth warmed significantly, leading to destabilization of shallow subsurface methane hydrates and release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.” Furthermore, more methane over the Arctic would push up temperatures locally over the Arctic Ocean as well as over permafrost on land. A 2020 study by Turetsky et al. found that Arctic permafrost thaw plays a greater role in climate change than previously estimated. Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below. Further feedbacks can make the situation even more threatening. As an example, dissolved oxygen in oceans decreases as the temperature rises, further pushing up the temperature rise, as discussed, e.g., in a 2022 study by Jitao Chen et al. As the temperature rises, soil moisture content decreases, further pushing up temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post. Conclusion The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society. Links • N. Atlantic ocean temperature sets record high: US agencyhttps://phys.org/news/2023-07-atlantic-ocean-temperature-high-agency.html• Nullschool https://earth.nullschool.net • Climate Reanalyzer - sea surface temperature https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • Copernicus https://climate.copernicus.eu • University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start • A Prehistoric Climate Feedback Loop - Paleoclimatologist uncovers an ancient climate feedback loop that accelerated the effects of Earth's last warming episode (news release) https://www.news.ucsb.edu/2022/020697/prehistoric-climate-feedback-loop Evidence for massive methane hydrate destabilization during the penultimate interglacial warming - by Syee Weldeab et al. (study, 2022) https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2201871119 Also discussed at https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160171919574679 • Marine anoxia linked to abrupt global warming during Earth’s penultimate icehouse - by Jitao Chen et al. (2022) https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2115231119 Also discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159977164194679 • Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw - by Merritt Turetsky et al. (2020) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0526-0 Also discussed at https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10158061486334679 • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaskahttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts • The Threat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html • Moistening Atmosphere https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html • Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html • Latent Heat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html • Blue Ocean Event https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html • Dire situation gets more dire every day https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/dire-situation-gets-more-dire-every-day.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Emergency Declaration https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: AMOC, Arctic, El Niño, feedbacks, heat, jet stream, North Atlantic, ocean, sea surface, stratification, temperature]

— Planetary Inferno: Nero fiddles while Rome burns

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

by Andrew Glikson The fast rise in global warming manifested by current extreme weather events betrays a dangerous underestimation of the Earth’s liveable climate, while governments ignore climate science, claim to set limits on domestic emissions, but allow major export of fossil fuels and emissions worldwide on a scale threatening life on Earth. With current policies, there appear to exist few limits on global carbon emissions, as reported by Rogner (1997): “The global fossil resource base is abundant and is estimated at approximately 5000 Gt (billion tons). Compared to current global primary energy use of some 10 Gt per year, this amount is certainly sufficient to fuel the world economy through the twenty-first century”. According to these estimates, future production of coal, oil and gas render a mass extinction of advanced species more than likely. A significant fraction of carbon gases released from combustion of fossil fuels on timescales of a few centuries remains in the atmosphere as well as leads to acidification of the oceans at a rate faster than its removal by weathering processes and deposition of carbonates. Common measures of the atmospheric lifetime of CO₂ disregard the long time tail of its dissipation, which underestimates the longevity of anthropogenic global warming. Models agree 20–35% of the CO₂ remains in the atmosphere after equilibration with the ocean (over 2–20 centuries). Neutralization by CaCO₃ draws the airborne fraction down further on timescales of 3 to 7 kyr. With atmospheric CO₂ levels reaching 423 parts per million, according to James Hansen and colleagues humanity is facing a new Frontier, marked by intense heatwaves, more than vindicating warnings by climate scientists over the last 40 years or so. Within less than a century, the levels of CO₂ and temperatures have risen to levels of the Miocene (23.03–5.33 million years ago), with implications for sea level rise (Spratt, 2023). Hominids, living during glacial to inter-glacial periods, rarely had to endure mean temperatures higher than 50°C, which are increasingly common at present. Governments, busy subsidizing new coal mines and oil and gas wells and arming to the teeth for nuclear war, appear to be oblivious to the lessons of the last great world wars. Figure 1. Global temperature anomalies relative to 1880-1920. Accelerated warming rate are 0.36°C and 0.27°C per decade. Super-El-Niño, projected for 2023, occurs at +0.8 to +1.2 temperature. (Hansen et al., 2023, The climate dice). No longer does climate change represent a future scenario debated by scientists or deniers, but it constitutes an accelerating reality (Figures 1 and 2) related to the latitudinal shift of climate zones, including expansion of the tropics into temperate regions, Europe and north America. The weakening of the circum-polar jet stream allows heat cells to penetrate polar latitudes and cold fronts to enter high latitude zones. The consequences are represented by accumulation of ice melt water off Greenland and parts of the circum-Antarctic ocean (Figure 2). Increased evaporation over land masses results in draughts, while evaporation from warming oceans gives rise to major floods over large continental regions. Figure 2. June 2023 global surface temperature anomaly (°C) relative to 1951-1980 June mean. Note the major high latitude temperature anomalies reaching 3 – 4°C above the 1951-1980 June mean. (Hansen et al., 2023, The climate dice). According to Sharpless et al. (2023): “Heatwaves have been going through some extraordinary changes in recent history. Since midway through the 20th century, their intensity, frequency and duration have increased across the globe and these changes are happening faster and faster. Research indicates that this is simply not possible without human influence on the climate. A child born today could see an extra 30 to 50 heatwave days every year by the time they are 80, up from roughly four to 10 days today. Southern states of Australia, such as Victoria and South Australia, which already experience the country’s hottest heatwaves, could see hot days become hotter by up to 4 degrees Celsius. There may be more heatwaves in the near future with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting drier and warmer conditions across much of Australia for July to September this year. These conditions, which often occur during an El Niño, can lead to reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and a greater risk of bushfires. Across Europe, heatwaves may become hotter by up to 10 degrees Celsius and some heatwaves will last up to two months by the end of this century. In just the next 20 years, the USA will experience three to five more heatwaves every decade compared to the second half of the 20th century. Heatwaves are closely linked to droughts. Generally, a large amount of energy from the Sun goes into drying out moisture in the landscape. But as the amount of moisture available for evaporation declines during a drought, more energy is available for heating the air and the temperature rises. This can become a vicious cycle of increasing evaporation and desiccation of the land surface”.There was a time when kings and generals would fall on their sword when they were defeated, or when their faith in their gods collapsed. Nowadays so-called leaders, assuming opportunistic positions, betray the defence of their own people and of nature, protecting or advancing their own careers. The voices of climate scientists have become subdued, ignored or non-existent. There may not be too many historians to document the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries crimes against humanity and against nature.Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, betrayal, heatwaves, rise, temperature]

— Arctic sea ice July 2023

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

World temperatures during each of the past 16 days have been higher than they have been for millions of years. Moreover, the temperature is now rising faster than during any period before, and could rise 18.44°C (versus pre-industrial) by the year 2026. In each of the past 16 days, the temperature has been higher than the peak temperature reached in previous years in the record going back to 1979, i.e. 16.92°C (62.46°F) reached on July 24, 2022 (orange), as well as on August 13+14, 2016. July   3, 2023: 17.01°C or 62.62°FJuly   4, 2023: 17.18°C or 62.92°FJuly   5, 2023: 17.18°C or 62.92°FJuly   6, 2023: 17.23°C or 63.01°FJuly   7, 2023: 17.20°C or 62.96°FJuly   8, 2023: 17.17°C or 62.91°FJuly   9, 2023: 17.11°C or 62.80°FJuly 10, 2023: 17.12°C or 62.82°FJuly 11, 2023: 17.08°C or 62.74°FJuly 12, 2023: 17.04°C or 62.67°FJuly 13, 2023: 16.98°C or 62.56°FJuly 14, 2023: 16.94°C or 62.49°FJuly 15, 2023: 16.99°C or 62.58°FJuly 16, 2023: 17.03°C or 62.65°FJuly 17, 2023: 17.11°C or 62.80°FJuly 18, 2023: 17.17°C or 62.91°FThe comparison with the year 2016 is important, since 2016 was a strong El Niño year and the peak temperature in that year was reached in August. Therefore, if indicative, temperatures in 2023 may reach even higher peaks later this month and in August, which seems confirmed by predictions of the currently unfolding El Niño, such as the above image from Copernicus, showing El Niño gaining in strength. Arctic Ocean heating up The Arctic reached high temperatures on July 9, 2023, as illustrated by the combination image below, created with nullschool.net images. [ click on images to enlarge ] 1. Firstly, the water of the Arctic Ocean heats up as it receives direct heat from sunlight. The globe on the right on the above combination image shows that on July 9, 2023, a temperature of 33°C or 91.3°F was recorded in Canada over land near the Arctic Ocean and near the Mackenzie River (green circle), with the heatwave on land extending over the Arctic Ocean. As the globe at the center shows, sea surface temperature anomalies as high as 13.2°C or 23.7°F were recorded that day nearby, in the area marked by the green circle. 2. Hot water from rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean is another way the water is heating up, as also illustrated by the above image. The above globe on the left shows that, on July 9, 2023, sea surface temperatures as high as 13.5°C or 56.4°F were recorded at a location nearby location where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean (at the green circle), while on July 23, 2023, the sea surface was 13.8°C or 24.8°F hotter than in 1981-2011, at a nearby location where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean.  As illustrated by the image on the right, the sea surface was 18.4°C or 33°F hotter than in 1981-2011 where the Ob River meets the Kara Sea (at the green circle) on July 24, 2023.  The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures in the Bering Strait as high as 18.8°C or 65.4°F on July 27, 2023. The water heats up strongly where hot water from rivers and run-off from rainwater enters the Bering Strait. 3. Yet another way heat is entering the Arctic Ocean is from oceans, i.e. from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and this is melting the sea ice from below. The image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer images, shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 24.8°C on July 21, 2023 (black), no less than 1.2°C higher than the 23.6°C recorded on July 21, 2022 (orange). As the above image also shows, a record high temperature was reached on the North Atlantic of 24.9°C on September 4, 2022. The comparison with the peak in 2022 is important, as it was reached at a time when La Niña was suppressing the temperature, whereas now El Niño is strongly pushing up the temperature. Therefore, if the 1.2°C difference is indicative, temperatures above 26°C can be expected for the North Atlantic in September this year. The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.6°C or 92.4°F off the Florida coast (green circle) on July 13, 2023.A buoy in Manatee Bay in the Upper Keys south of Florida recorded a water temperature of 38.89°C or 101.1°F on July 24, 2023.The image below shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33°C or 91.4°F on July 27, 2023.The video below gives a sequential view of the situation: The Gulf Stream is pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below. It takes some time for peak ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean. Arctic sea ice typically reaches an annual minimum extent about mid-September.As the above image also shows, a sea surface temperature east of Svalbard of 10.6°C or 51°F was recorded on July 15, 2023 (at the green circle).Arctic sea ice under threatAs described in earlier posts such as this one, this rapid temperature rise threatens to cause Arctic sea ice to disappear.The three images on the right, adapted from University of Bremen, shows that Arctic sea ice thickness is very vulnerable.  The top image shows that most Arctic sea ice was less than 20 cm thick on July 16, 2023.The second image on the right shows Arctic sea ice concentration on July 9, 2023.The image underneath shows sea ice age for the week of June 25 to July 1, 2023, from NSIDC.More generally, the rapid temperature rise threatens to cause numerous feedbacks to accelerate and further developments to occur such as crossing of tipping points, with the danger that the temperature will keep rising. Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.ConclusionThe outlook is dire and is getting more dire every day.This calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society. Links • Nullschool https://earth.nullschool.net • Climate Reanalyzer - sea surface temperature https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • Potential world record: South Florida ocean temperature surges beyond 100 degrees https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2023/07/25/potential-world-record-south-florida-ocean-temperature-surges-beyond-100-degrees• Copernicushttps://climate.copernicus.eu • University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• The Threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• NSIDC - Mid-summer bliss - sea ice age https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2023/07/mid-summer-bliss • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaskahttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Dire situation gets more dire every day https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/dire-situation-gets-more-dire-every-day.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, concentration, El Niño, sea ice, temperature, thickness]

— Dire situation gets more dire every day

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

Conditions are direThe world temperature was at a record high 17.23°C or 63.01°F on July 6, 2023 (black). The maximum temperature in 2022 (orange) and in 2016 (grey) was 16.92°C or 62.46°F (on July 24, 2022, and on August 13+14, 2016). The year 2016 is important, since there was a strong El Niño in 2016 and we're now again in an El Niño. As the image below adds, the 17.23°C temperature recorded on July 6, 2023, is a daily value, but if indicative for July 2023, the closest value for CMIP5 RCP8.5 would be 17.255°C, projected to occur in July 2035 (13 years away from now).[ The international consortium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)defines scenarios for use in climate projections. Its CMIP5 scenario (an average of39 models of near-surface temperature and precipitation, and mean sea level pressure)can be used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). ]Why is the temperature rising so fast? The image below mentions a number of contributors, with charts added from an earlier post. [ click on images to enlarge ]1. Emissions are high and greenhouse gas levels keep rising, increasing Earth's Energy Imbalance. 2. We did come out of a La Niña that has for years been suppressing temperatures and we are now in an El Niño. A 2023 study led by Tao Lian predicts the current El Niño to be strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post. Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. The image below shows that February 2016 on land was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial, the rise will be even larger when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.The above image, from an earlier post, adds a poignant punchline: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer![ click on images to enlarge ]3. The June 2023 number of sunspots is more than twice as high as predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.4. The January 2022 submarine volcano eruption near Tonga did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post and also at facebook. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this further contributes to speeding up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the eruption will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.5. There are further things that contribute to the temperature rise, such as reductions of Sahara dust and of sulfur aerosols co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion that previously masked the temperature rise. The above points apply to the global temperature rise. The North Atlantic sea surface temperature is rising even stronger than the global rise, due to the following points:The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics is slowing down the flow of air from the Tropics to the Arctic, deforming the Jet Stream, and that can strongly prolong and amplify extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, and result in stronger heating up of the North Atlantic.This is also slowing down AMOC, causing more hot water to accumulate in the North Atlantic and to reach the Arctic Ocean, resulting in strong melting of sea ice from below and thus strong thinning.Additionally, as temperatures rise, increased stratification further speeds up the sea surface temperature rise.As the North Atlantic Ocean heats up and as cold air from the Arctic can more deeply descend over North America (due to Jet Stream deformation), the temperature difference between land and oceans widens, especially during the Northern Winter, and this can result in storms abruptly pushing strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, pushing ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, with stronger evaporation occurring over the North Atlantic and with stronger precipitation (rain, snow, etc.) occurring further down the path of the Gulf Stream. This stronger evaporation cools the surface of the North Atlantic.This cooling, together with cooling from increased meltwater, also results in formation of a cold freshwater lid on top of the North Atlantic, also because freshwater is less dense than saltwater.This lid on top of the North Atlantic enables more hot water to flow underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that more heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize hydrates, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane.This sea surface cooling has until now covered up the full extent of the rise in ocean heat in the North Atlantic, but - as illustrated by the image below - the continued rise in ocean heat now is overwhelming this cooling.The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña at the time was suppressing the temperature, whereas there now is an El Niño, so the outlook is grim. [ from earlier post ]Feedbacks and developments that make the outlook even more threateningGlobally, methane rose to 1924.99 ppb in December 2022. The image below has a polynomial trend added that is based on April 2018 to December 2022 NOAA global methane data and is pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027. The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. This tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.[ from earlier post ][ click on images to enlarge ]On February 22, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1,050,708 km² in size, as discussed in an earlier post. Since that time, Antarctic sea ice has been growing at a much slower pace than in previous years. On July 4, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was 9,385,739 km² in size, and sea ice has actually been falling in size recently, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image on the right. Less sea ice means that sunlight previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead getting absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme. [ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]This dire situation spells bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more threatening. A huge temperature rise could be triggered abruptly, due to a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further, such as by causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere and Extreme Heat Stress. [ see the Extinction page ]Changes in aerosols are discussed in earlier posts such as this post and this post. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so strong that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. These are mainly sulfates, but burning of fossil fuel and biomass also emits iron that currently helps photosynthesis of phytoplankton in oceans, as a 2022 study points out, and less iron means less drawdown of carbon dioxide. Without these emissions, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and an additional rise of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026, as discussed in this post and earlier posts.The image on the right indicates that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C. Earth's energy imbalance has grown since 2020, so the rise up to now may be even higher. Climate Tipping Points and further Events and DevelopmentsThe temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040. This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point. [ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.While loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America are often regarded as tipping points, Antarctic sea ice loss, and loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could also be seen as tipping points. Another five tipping points are: - The Latent Heat Tipping Point- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point- The Clouds Tipping Point- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point- The Ocean Surface Tipping PointExtinctionAltogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, while humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post. This should act as a warning that near-term human extinction could occur soon. In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses how fast humans could go extinct.  Conclusion The dire situation is getting more dire every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society. Links • Climate Reanalyzer - World Daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily• Climate Reanalyzer - CMIP5 RCP8.5 projectionhttps://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries• NOAA - Solar cycle sunspot number progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• A Strong 2023/24 El Niño is Staged by Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content Buildup - by Tao Lian et al. (2023)https://spj.science.org/doi/10.34133/olar.0011• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Centerhttps://www.nsidc.org • NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph • Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sunhttps://cryospherecomputing.com• Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net • Climate Reanalyzer - sea ice based on NSIDC index V3 https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice • NOAA - greenhouse gases - trends CH4 (methane)https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202301/supplemental/page-4• NOAA - Solar cycle progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• NASA gistemp Monthly Mean Global Surface Temperature - Land Onlyhttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• NOAA - Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/land/ann/1/1850-2023• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. (2023)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Moistening Atmospherehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Blue Ocean Eventhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html• Methane keeps risinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html • A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-huge-temperature-rise-threatens-to-unfold-soon.html • The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • Human Extinction by 2025?http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• 2020: Hottest Year On Recordhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html• The Importance of Methane in Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean - by Mingxu Liu et al. (2022)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00250-w• How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? - by Katharyn Duffy et al. (2021)https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/3/eaay1052• Overshoot or Omnicide? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html• Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020 - by Lijing Cheng et al. (2021)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x• Reduced CO₂ uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation - by Yi Liu et al. (2022)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01555-7• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics - by Megumi Chikamoto et al. (2023) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101954• Ocean Surface Tipping Point Could Accelerate Climate Change https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160618207479679 • When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Edge of Extinction: Extinct - HOW FAST? - video by Guy McPhersonhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9HPwT1VZ6I• Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction - video by Guy McPhersonhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuPEyWCyg1c• The Threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: extinction, feedback, forcing, Guy McPherson, methane, rise, self-reinforcing, temperature]

— Arctic sea ice under threat - update 5

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice on June 29, 2023, with the North Pole on the left.  The animation below shows that, while clouds can obscure a closer look, sea ice is clearly very thin with the thickest ice breaking up near the top of Greenland, some 750 km from the North Pole. The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 28, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo, while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.5°C on June 28, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.6°C on June 28, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on Sept. 4, 2022, even while La Niña was suppressing the temperature. This time, there's an El Niño. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream on June 25, 2023, while sea surface temperatures on the map are as high as 32.6°C.In addition, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, and this threatens to strengthen heatwaves extending over the Arctic Ocean and causing hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, and to strengthen storms accelerating the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, while fires and storms contribute to darkening of the sea ice, further speeding up its demise.The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens and as ocean heat keeps entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, a huge amount of heat will abruptly be pushed into the Arctic Ocean. This danger is illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post, showing the Jet Stream pushing wind at a speed of 126 km/h (78 mph) up through Fram Strait (at the green circle) into the Arctic Ocean on June 21, 2023.This situation threatens to cause massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo.This in turn threatens to trigger methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, a threat that has been described many times before, such as here, here and here. [ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] [ see the Extinction page ]Loss of Arctic sea ice albedo, loss of the latent heat buffer and eruption of seafloor methane all constitute tipping points that threaten to abruptly accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic, further speeding up loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America and thus threatening to trigger further releases of greenhouse gases. In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be of such a severity that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Without these cooling aerosols, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. Furthermore, as traffic slows down, there will be less nitrogen oxide emissions, which could result in less hydroxyl to curtail methane. The bar on the right depicts the threat, as discussed at the Extinction page. In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for support for a Climate Emergency Declaration. Links • Arctic sea ice under threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html • Arctic sea ice under threat - update 1 https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-1.html • Arctic sea ice under threat - update 2https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-2.html• Arctic sea ice under threat - update 3https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-3.html• Arctic sea ice under threat - update 4https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-4.html• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatureshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • NOAA - The National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Version 2   https://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov • NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Diagnostic Discussions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml • NOAA - sea surface temperaturehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start • NASA Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov • Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 - by Sushi Peng et al.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05447-w • Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html • Latent Heat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html • Albedo https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html • Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declaration https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, methane, ocean, rise, sea ice, sea surface, temperature, thickness, volume]

— Extreme heat stress

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

HeatwavesHigh Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is forecast to hit the Southeastern United States over the next few days. The image below shows a forecast for June 29, 2023, 18 UTC with WBGT as high as 34°C (93°F) forecast for a location near Jackson, Mississippi, U.S.  [ click on images to enlarge ] WBGT is a measure used by weather.gov to warn about expected heat stress when in direct sunlight. It estimates the effect of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation on humans using a combination of temperatures from three thermometers: A Wet bulb measures the temperature read by a thermometer covered in a wet cloth. As water evaporates from the cloth, evaporation cools the thermometer. This mirrors how the human body cools itself with sweat.A black globe is used to measure solar radiation. Solar radiation heats the globe and wind blowing across it cools the globe.A Dry bulb calculates the air temperature measured in the shade. It is the temperature you would see on your thermometer outside. The images on the right earlier featured in a 2016 post. The top image, an animation from the EPA, illustrates that a relatively small rise in average temperature can have a huge impact and result in a lot more hot weather as well as in even more extreme hot weather. [ from earlier post ]The three images underneath, from the IPCC, show the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature. The thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature is determined by temperature, humidity and pressure (hPa), and it is the lowest temperature that can be achieved by evaporative cooling of a water-wetted ventilated surface. As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, there comes a point where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling.The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C. Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure. A 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al.) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.The images below show high readings on the 'Misery Index', the perceived temperature that is used by nullschool.net, combining wind chill and the heat index (which in turn combines air temperature and relative humidity, in shaded areas). The image below shows a forecast for June 29, 2023 20 UTC, with weather conditions prolonged by circular wind patterns at 250 hPa (Jet Stream), while the Jet Stream is crossing the Equator (bottom left). Temperatures as high as 39.9°C (103.7°F) combined with a relative humidity of 35% result in perceived temperatures as high as 45°C (112.9°F) at the green circle. As it turned out, the perceived temperature was as high as 44.9°C or 112.7°F on June 29, 2023 19 UTC, due to a 39.1°C or 102.5°F temperature and a 38% relative humidity at the surface, and with conditions prolonged by a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa), with circular wind patterns and winds crossing the Equator. The image below shows high readings on the 'Misery Index' for parts of Pakistan. On June 22, 2023, an air temperature of 45.4°C (113.7°F) and a relative humidity of 25% resulted in a perceived temperature of 51°C (123.7°F) at the area marked by the green circle.  The above image also shows the Jet Stream (wind at 250 hPa). Distortion of the Jet Stream can lead to circular wind patterns that amplify heatwaves. As temperature rise, the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic narrows, distorting the Jet Stream resulting in more extreme  weather.Perceived (feels like) air temperatures as high as 53.1°C or 127.7°F were recorded in Pakistan on July 4, 2023, 09 UTC (at green circle), with a 46.7°C or 116.1°F temperature and a 24% relative humidity recorded at the surface. Also, Jet Stream deformation shows up (at 250 hPa), with circular wind patterns and wind crossing the Equator (at the image bottom). Meanwhile, heatwave conditions have also been affecting China, Texas and Mexico recently, with all-time high temperature records broken in each of these places. The press release of a 2022 Unicef report has the title 559 million children currently exposed to high heatwave frequency, rising to all 2.02 billion children globally by 2050. Fire and smoke from firesAn additional hazard is fire and the smoke from fires. The image below shows biomass-burning aerosols from fires in Canada extending over the North Atlantic on June 25, 2023, 03 UTC. The forecast for June 29, 2023 21 UTC below shows remnants of the Canadian forest fires reaching Western Europe. Feedbacks As temperatures rise, fire and smoke hazards increase due to self-reinforcing feedback loops, including: [ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]Albedo loss and Jet Stream distortion:- as sea ice melts away and gets covered by meltpools and rainwater pools, soot, dust, and algae, the resulting albedo loss further pushes up temperatures- the narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics causes Jet Stream distortion, resulting in more extreme weather, incl. stronger storms that come with more lightning and can carry more oxygen to fires and spread fires faster and wider, and more intense heatwaves that can dramatically push up local temperatures, further intensifying droughts and forest fires a further self-reinforcing feedback loop is that water that was previously present in the soil, is increasingly moving up into the atmosphere, as the atmosphere sucks up more water vapor (7% more water vapor for every 1°C in temperature rise ), resulting in:- less evapotranspiration from vegetation, in turn resulting in less clouds and rain, thus pushing up temperatures and drying out soil and vegetation even more- erosion and less healthy vegetation that is more vulnerable to pests and diseases such as bark beetles, resulting in an increase in dead trees providing more fuel for fires [ from earlier post ] The image on the right, from a news release associated with a 2022 study, shows changes in atmospheric thirst, measured in terms of reference evapotranspiration from 1980-202 (in mm). As temperatures rise due to people's emissions, more evaporation will take place over both land and oceans, but not all water will return as precipitation, so more water vapor will stay in the air and droughts affecting the soil and vegetation will intensify. [ from earlier post ]Water in the soil acts as a buffer, slowing down the temperature rise, so drier soil will heat up faster and further, causing land surface temperatures to rise even more and amplifying the impact of Urban heat island and Heat dome phenomena.The image on the right, adapted from ESA, shows land surface temperatures as high as 65°C (149°F) in India on April 26, 2022. Note that land surface temperatures can be substantially higher than air temperatures. The Copernicus image below shows Spain on 11 July 2023, where the Land Surface Temperature (LST), i.e. the temperature of the soil, in some areas of Extremadura (Spain) exceeded 60°C or 140°F, as measured by the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) instrument, a feature of the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellites.  How high could temperatures rise? The image below, from NASA, shows that February 2016 was 3.24°C or 5.83°F hotter on land than 1850-1890. Note that 1850-1890 is not pre-industrial, while the 2016 peak was reached during an El Niño, which raises the question how much hotter than pre-industrial it will be at the peak of the current El Niño. The image below says it even more poignantly: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer!The above image shows that February 2016 was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896 on land, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land.World temperature was at a new record high of 17.18°C or 62.92°F on July 4, 2023 (black). Both in 2022 (orange) and in 2016 (grey), the temperature reached 16.92°C or 62.46°F (on July 24, 2022 and August 13+14, 2016). The year 2016 is important, since it was a strong El Niño year and we're now again in an El Niño.A 2023 study led by Tao Lian predicts the current El Niño to be strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post. Additionally, the June 2023 number of sunspots is more than twice as high as predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.Furthermore, the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. Alarm bells have been ringing for many years. As an example, the image below featured in a 2015 post, showing non-linear trends including a polynomial trendline (1: blue) pointing at global temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2060. Moreover, a polynomial trend for the Arctic (2: red) threatens to cause major feedbacks to kick in, triggering runaway global warming (3: white) that looks set to catch up with accelerated warming in the Arctic and result in global temperature anomalies of 16°C by 2052. [ from a 2015 post, click on image to enlarge ]In the 2019 video below, Roger Hallam talks with Stephen Sackur from the BBC's HardTalk series.  Climate change danger assessmentThe image below, earlier discussed here, expands risk assessment beyond its typical definition as the product of the severity of impact and probability of occurrence, by adding a third dimension: timescale, in particular imminence. ConclusionImminence alone could make that the danger constituted by rising temperatures needs to be acted upon immediately, comprehensively and effectively. While questions may remain regarding probability, severity and timescale of the dangers associated with climate change, the precautionary principle should prevail and this should prompt for action, i.e. comprehensive and effective action to reduce damage and improve the situation is imperative and must be taken as soon as possible. To combat rising temperatures, transforming society is needed, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with declaration of a climate emergency.[ image from Climate Emergency Declaration ]Accordingly, everyone is encouraged to support and share this Climate Emergency Declaration. Links • Wet Bulb Globe Temperaturehttps://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov • National Weather Service - Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: How and when to use it https://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT • Nullschool.nethttps://earth.nullschool.net • Weather tracker: China issues heatstroke alert amid historic heatwave https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/23/weather-tracker-china-issues-heatstroke-alert-amid-historic-heatwave • Peaks matter https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html • It could be unbearably hot in many places within a few years time https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/07/it-could-be-unbearably-hot-in-many-places-within-a-few-years-time.html• The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance - by Colin Raymons et al. (2020)https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838 • Brief periods of dangerous humid heat arrive decades earlyhttps://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/brief-periods-dangerous-humid-heat-arrive-decades-early• Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project) - by Daniel Vecellio et al. (2022) https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021Discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159973158374679• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Copernicus - Biomass-burning aerosolshttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/aerosol-forecasts • Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html • Clausius–Clapeyron relationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius–Clapeyron_relation• Urban heat islandhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island• Heat domehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_dome• ESA - Heatwave across Indiahttps://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2022/04/Heatwave_across_India• Evaporative Demand Increase Across Lower 48 Means Less Water Supplies, Drier Vegetation, and Higher Fire Riskhttps://www.drought.gov/news/evaporative-demand-increase-across-lower-48-means-less-water-supplies• A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States - by Christine Albano et al. (2022)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/23/4/JHM-D-21-0163.1.xml• Carbon dioxide crosses 422 ppmhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/carbon-dioxide-crosses-422-ppm.html• 559 million children currently exposed to high heatwave frequency, rising to all 2.02 billion children globally by 2050 https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/heatwaves-report• Copernicus - Scorching heatwave hits Spain https://www.copernicus.eu/en/media/image-day-gallery/scorching-heatwave-hits-spain• NASA - custom plots https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• Climate Reanalyzer - World Daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily• NOAA - Solar cycle sunspot number progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• A Strong 2023/24 El Niño is Staged by Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content Buildup - by Tao Lian et al. (2023)https://spj.science.org/doi/10.34133/olar.0011• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: extreme, feedback, feels like, fire, heat stress, heatwave, misery index, relative humidity, rise, Roger Hallam, smoke, temperature, weather, wet bulb]

— Arctic sea ice under threat - update 4

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The image below, created by Eliot Jacobson, shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly through June 20, 2023 (versus 1982-2023 mean). The image below, created by Eliot Jacobson, shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on June 21, for the years 1982-2023.The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña then was suppressing the temperature, whereas now there's an El Niño. [ click on images to enlarge ] Global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on June 23, 2023, i.e. only 21.57 million km², as illustrated by the image below. [ click on images to enlarge ]Contributing to this is very low Antarctic sea ice extent. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent up to June 23, 2023. Values in the column on the left are for February 16; Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record minimum on February 16, 2023. Values in the column on the right are for June 23. Highlighted are three years: 2023 (red), 2022 (blue) and 2016 (black). Antarctic sea ice extent was also very low at the end of the year 2016, which was a strong El Niño year, yet extent was even lower at the very end of the year in 2022, even though that was during a La Niña.The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream on June 21, 2023, while sea surface temperatures on the map are as high as 32.5°C.In addition, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, and this threatens to strengthen heatwaves extending over the Arctic Ocean and causing hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, and to strengthen storms accelerating the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, while fires and storms contribute to darkening of the sea ice, further speeding up its demise. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens and as ocean heat keeps entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, a huge amount of heat will abruptly be pushed into the Arctic Ocean. This danger is illustrated by the image on the right, showing the Jet Stream pushing wind at a speed of 126 km/h (78 mph) up through Fram Strait (at the green circle) into the Arctic Ocean on June 21, 2023.This situation threatens to cause massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo. This in turn threatens to trigger methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, a threat that has been described many times before, such as here, here and here. [ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] [ see the Extinction page ]Loss of Arctic sea ice albedo, loss of the latent heat buffer and eruption of seafloor methane all constitute tipping points that threaten to abruptly accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic, thus also further speeding up loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America and thus threatening to trigger further releases of greenhouse gases. In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be of such a severity that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Without these cooling aerosols, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. Furthermore, as traffic slows down, there will be less nitrogen oxide emissions, which could result in less hydroxyl to curtail methane. The bar on the right depicts the threat, as discussed at the Extinction page. In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for support for a Climate Emergency Declaration. Links • Arctic sea ice under threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html • Arctic sea ice under threat - update 1 https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-1.html • Arctic sea ice under threat - update 2https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-2.html• Arctic sea ice under threat - update 3https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-3.html• Eliot Jacobson - North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly through June 20, 2023https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1671603838770626563• Eliot Jacobson - North Atlantic sea surface temperature on June 21, for the years 1982-2023https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1672232859409723392/photo/1• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • NOAA - The National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Version 2   https://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov • NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Diagnostic Discussions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml • University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start • NASA Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov • Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 - by Sushi Peng et al.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05447-w • Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html • NOAA - sea surface temperaturehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• Nullschool.nethttps://earth.nullschool.net • Latent Heat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html • Albedo https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html • Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declaration https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, methane, ocean, rise, sea ice, sea surface, temperature, thickness, volume]

— Arctic sea ice under threat - update 3

 

at 6/19/25 11:32am

The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice on June 18, 2023. While the sea ice on much of the picture is shrouded in clouds, Arctic sea ice clearly is in a poor condition, even close to the North Pole (on the bottom left of the image below).  The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 18, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo, while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.1°C on June 18, 2023 (on the black line), 0.8°C higher than the 22.3°C on June 18, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on Sept. 4, 2022, even while La Niña was suppressing the temperature. This time, there's an El Niño. Furthermore, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, threatening to result in heatwaves that extend over the Arctic Ocean and that cause hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, while storms accelerate the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, and while fires and storms contribute to darkening of the sea ice, speeding up its demise. All this threatens to trigger eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post. [ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] [ see the Extinction page ]Loss of Arctic sea ice albedo, loss of the latent heat buffer and eruption of seafloor methane all constitute tipping points that threaten to abruptly accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic, further speeding up loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America and thus threatening to trigger further releases of greenhouse gases. In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be of such a severity that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Without these cooling aerosols, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. Furthermore, as traffic slows down, there will be less nitrogen oxide emissions, which could result in less hydroxyl to curtail methane. The bar on the right depicts the threat, as discussed at the Extinction page. In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for support for a Climate Emergency Declaration. Links • Arctic sea ice under threathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html • Arctic sea ice under threat - update 1 https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-1.html • Arctic sea ice under threat - update 2https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-2.html • NOAA - The National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Version 2   https://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov • NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Diagnostic Discussions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml • University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start • NASA Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov • Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 - by Sushi Peng et al.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05447-w • Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html • Latent Heat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html • Albedo https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html • Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html • Climate Emergency Declaration https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, sea ice, SST, thickness]

— Endangerment Finding in danger?

 

at 4/1/25 5:24am

In the 2009 Endangerment Finding, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirmed that the current and projected concentrations of six key well-mixed greenhouse gases in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. Recently, President-elect Trump picked Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA and a Republican-controlled Senate subsequently confirmed Zeldin's appointment. More recently, in an EPA news release, Zeldin said that President Trump’s Executive Order gave the EPA Administrator a deadline to submit recommendations on the legality and continuing applicability of the 2009 Endangerment Finding. Having submitted these recommendations, the EPA can now announce its intent to reconsider the 2009 Endangerment Finding. Patrick Parenteau, Professor of Law Emeritus, Vermont Law & Graduate School, comments that for Zeldin to revoke the Endangerment Finding, procedures must be followed and that could take months, while lawsuits will immediately challenge the move. Even if Zeldin is able to revoke the finding, that does not automatically repeal all the rules that rely on it. Each of those rules must go through separate rulemaking processes that will also take months. To the extent that Zeldin is counting on the conservative Supreme Court to back him up, he may be disappointed. In 2024, the court overturned the Chevron doctrine, which required courts to defer to agencies’ reasonable interpretations when laws were ambiguous. That means Zeldin’s reinterpretation of the statute is not entitled to deference. Nor can he count on the court overturning its Massachusetts v. EPA ruling to free him to disregard science for policy reasons.Dictatorship versus democracyNonetheless, it is worrying if a President, backed by the Senate and through appointment of judges and heads of agencies such as the EPA, is able to effectively act like a dictator. It is even more worrying to see this happen in a country like the U.S., which after all has long taken great pride in having replaced the rule of a monarch by "We, the people" and having put in place many safeguards to avoid arbitrary rule, safeguards such as separation of powers, delegation of decision-making to lower governments and inclusion of clauses in the Constitution to protect fundamental rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, next to the right to vote and equal right to justice.The War for Independence from the British Monarchy ended in 1783 by the Treaty of Paris, in which 'His Brittanic Majesty' acknowledges the United States to be free sovereign and Independent States. This was followed by the United States Constitution, which in its first three words – 'We The People' – affirms that the government of the United States exists to serve its citizens, while the Constitution also separates the government into three branches to prevent any one branch from becoming too powerful. The need for policies to comply with best available scienceThe current situation should act as a wake up call. This is not merely a debate about interpretation of law or following a political ideology. This touches everyone and everybody should get involved in efforts to do the right thing. Dictatorship in itself is bad enough, but it's even worse when it serves climate change denial. The danger of climate change is real and this reality can and must compel any government, whatever its ideological background, to look for and adopt policies that are in line with best available science. This constitutes a necessity that, where there appears to be a conflict, must overrule even what the Supreme Court, the President or Congress may decree—something so obvious that people at the time didn't see a need for it to be enshrined in the Constitution. People did clearly recognize the importance of putting in place safeguards against arbitrary rule, but clearly more should be done now. Principles for all to followIn many Commonwealth jurisdictions, the provision for laws to be for the peace, order and good government is highlighted in their constitution, defining the principles under which legislation must be enacted by the respective parliament. As an example, the Australian Constitution vests the legislative power of the Commonwealth of Australia in its Federal Parliament, stating that Parliament has the power, subject to this Constitution, to make laws with respect to matters such as taxation, bounties, trade and commerce, while highlighting that such laws must be for the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth. Surely, "good government" comes with the imperative for all three branches of government (legislative, executive and judicial) to accept the dangers of climate change and act accordingly. Europe has long embraced the principle of subsidiarity (preference for decision-making to occur at the lowest level of authority capable of addressing the issue, thus promoting local autonomy and participation). Additionally, some nations have ensured that the duty for government to support the environment is enshrined in their constitution, e.g. in the Netherlands, article 21 of the Constitution imposes the duty on government to keep the country habitable and to protect and improve the environment. For the sake of democracy and the urgent need to act on climate change, good principles must be adopted and followed. Scientists should follow principles when doing research. Journalists should follow principles when writing reports. Politicians should implement forms of democracy that support decision-making at local level. Local areas can best develop sets of local feebates and institute Local People's Courts in which randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts to ensure that policies are indeed in line with best available science. Where needed, progress with climate action should be supported by a Climate Emergency Declaration.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: democracy, Endangerment Finding, EPA, greenhouse gases, health, justice, pollution, science, subsidiarity, welfare]

As of 6/21/25 1:19am. Last new 6/19/25 11:32am.