Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Secretary Blinken Visited Haiti As US-Backed Police Fail To Wrestle Control From Gangs

 

at 9/9/24 8:45pm

Secretary Blinken Visited Haiti As US-Backed Police Fail To Wrestle Control From Gangs Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute, Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently traveled to Haiti to show support for the US-backed government and Kenyan police in their struggle for legitimacy. As the Kenyans have been unable to take Port-au-Prince from the gangs and paramilitary groups, the White House is considering changing the status of the mission in Haiti to a UN Peacekeeping force.  According to the Washington Post, Blinken’s trip to Haiti is an "unusual attempt to boost the country’s interim leader and deliver a message of support for a US-backed international policing mission that has so far failed to make a significant impact." Kenyan police in a meeting with President Ruto before departing to Haiti. Image source: Presidency of Kenya After Haitian President Jovenal Mosie was assassinated in 2021, the Joe Biden administration backed Ariel Henry’s claim to power in Port-au-Prince. Under Henry, Haiti descended into chaos, with paramilitaries and gangs taking control of most of the capital city.  In response, the White House and Henry worked out a plan with Nairobi to have armed Kenyans deployed to Haiti to take control from the armed groups and transfer it to the US-backed government.  However, the plan backfired, and gangs shut down the airport in Port au Prince while Henry was in Nairobi inking the deal to have the Kenyan soldiers – dubbed police – deployed to Haiti, and he was unable to return to the country.  The White House then pulled support from Henry and forced his resignation. Then, Washington formed a new government headed by Prime Minister Garry Conille. Under Conille, the Kenyan police finally arrived in Haiti with US financing and military equipment. So far, Nariobi’s security force has failed to have a major impact on the ground and Conille’s government has not gained legitimacy among Haitians.  With its Haiti policy failing, the White House is seeking to escalate the Kenyan mission to Haiti by declaring the police official UN Peacekeepers. Brian A. Nichols, U.S. assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs, affirmed the Biden administration was considering pursuing that path.  "A (peacekeeping operation) is one of the ways we could accomplish that," he said. "But we are looking at multiple ways." VIDEO: Haitians are fleeing their country's violence-plagued capital Port-au-Prince across dangerous mountain paths, as they seek to avoid the armed gangs that are ruling the area. #AFPVertical pic.twitter.com/2mFj5jhvwI — AFP News Agency (@AFP) September 5, 2024 Washington will likely struggle to gain support for the UN Peacekeeping mission from both the Security Council and Haitians. Peacekeepers have a dark legacy in Haiti, including causing a cholera outbreak that killed over ten thousand people and committing rampant acts of sexual violence against women.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 22:45

— Which Countries Dominate The Supply Chain For Strategic Metals?

 

at 9/9/24 8:15pm

Which Countries Dominate The Supply Chain For Strategic Metals? As the energy transition continues, tapping into the reserves of critical minerals and securing their supply chains is crucial.  For this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnered with Appian Capital Advisory to provide visual context to the top countries for reserves, production, and processing of minerals that are vital to the energy transition. The analysis uses data from the USGS and the IEA across four minerals: lithium, cobalt, natural graphite, and rare earths.  Which Countries Hold the Most Critical Minerals Reserves? South America dominates the reserves for lithium, with nearly half of all known reserves located in Chile (34%) and Argentina (13%). Australia, with 22% of global lithium reserves, is in third place. The Democratic Republic of Congo is home to the highest share of cobalt reserves, at 57%. Australia, at 16%, also possesses a sizable source of the metal. Natural graphite reserves are relatively spread out geographically. China (28%) and Brazil (26%) hold comparable amounts. Mozambique (9%) rounds out the top three list. Rare earth minerals are primarily located in Asia, with China (38%) and Vietnam (19%) holding the greatest reserves. Brazil has 18% of known global reserves.  The Production and Processing of Critical Minerals Overwhelmingly, China is the main hub for processing critical minerals across the board. The country is responsible for processing 65% of global lithium mined, 74% of cobalt, 100% of natural graphite, and 90% of rare earths. Similarly, mine production is also fairly concentrated. This represents a potential risk to supply chain stability. For each mineral, over half of production occurs in a single country. For lithium, the top-producing country is Australia (51%) and for cobalt it is the Democratic Republic of Congo (73%). Meanwhile, China produces the highest share of both natural graphite (72%) and rare earths (70%).  Future-Proofing the Supply of Critical Minerals Expanding the global supply chain for minerals that are vital to the clean energy transition will require investing in new mining projects, particularly in countries with high reserves but low production and processing rates. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 22:15

— Professor: People's "Street Race" Should Be Included In U.S. Census

 

at 9/9/24 7:45pm

Professor: People's "Street Race" Should Be Included In U.S. Census Via The College Fix, A sociology professor at the University of New Mexico believes “how you believe others see you” should be included in the United States Census. Nancy López, whose research interests include race, ethnicity, gender, inequality, and Latino/a Studies, refers to this as a person’s “street race,” according to the UNM Newsroom. Aspects such as hair, facial features, and skin color can lead people to believe a person is an ethnicity/race the person actually is not, López said. Latinos, in particular, can be the victims of anti-Asian hate or anti-blackness based on how they look to others. López (pictured) said adding “street race” to the Census can “make visible discrimination and equity that happens based on race as a visual status.” “Street race” is not a novel concept, López said, noting it’s “been built on decades of research” and may go by terms such as “folk race or socially assigned, described race.” Although the federal Office of Management and Budget has made ethnicity and race a “co-equal” category in federal agencies, López said this doesn’t mean they can’t also ask about “street race.” The same goes for institutions such as schools and hospitals. From the article: [But] López says when you’re asking about race and ethnicity together, you don’t know what you’re measuring. She says in the end, we will no longer be collecting data on race, only ethnicity, referring to that as ‘troubling.’ “I call it statistical gaslighting because here you are claiming that you’re not making Hispanic a race, but you’re asking about it with race, López said. “If someone dares to mark more than one box then you’re put into this amorphous box, ‘two or more’, which has no analytical value if you’re trying to understand reeducations in poverty or housing segregation by race.” … “If you care about knowing things like housing discrimination, employment discrimination, or healthcare access, you need to add another question,” she said. “Inequities will remain invisible if you only ask how you identify and neglect to add that second question, how you believe others see you.” López is the co-founder of UNM’s Institute for the Study of “Race” & Social Justice, “race” being in quotes on purpose “to underscore its nature as a socially constructed category of social status in particular historical contexts, rather than as a reified category that is essential or fixed.” She’s also author of the books “Quantcrit: An Antiracist Quantitative Approach to Educational Inquiry” and “Mapping “Race”: Critical Approaches to Health Disparities Research.” Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 21:45

— McCormick Outlines 'Playbook' In Tight Pennsylvania Senate Race

 

at 9/9/24 6:45pm

McCormick Outlines 'Playbook' In Tight Pennsylvania Senate Race Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics, With August in the rear-view mirror, Senate candidate Dave McCormick (R-PA) admits he never really made much of “brat summer,” the amorphous Gen Z meme that no one can exactly define but that Vice President Kamala Harris has adopted while in pursuit of younger voters. A catch-all term for “cool” that is also sort of kitsch, “brat” is one of the vibes that Harris has cultivated amidst a slow policy rollout to capture the imagination of voters and catapult herself in front of former President Donald Trump in the polls. The term is trendy, meme-able, and, according to the Republican running for Senate in Pennsylvania, “not serious” at a moment when inflation lingers, the cost of living creeps ever higher, and the southern border remains porous. McCormick said of his pitch to voters during an interview with RealClearPolitics, “People are thirsting for a serious discussion about the future of the country.” Plenty of Republicans say they want to focus on policy, not vibes, complaining that Democrats have gotten an early pass on substance from the moment Harris replaced President Biden as the nominee. Many have struggled all summer to reframe the conversation. But while the GOP has lost ground nationally this summer, McCormick is gaining ground in Pennsylvania. He tied incumbent Sen. Bob Casey in a recent CNN/SSRS poll at 46% and pulled within three points of the Democrat, who leads by just 48% to 45% in the RealClearPolitics Average, after trailing in some polls by as much as double digits earlier this year.   Things are not as encouraging atop the ticket for Republicans. Harris has not only made up the ground that Biden lost to Trump in the critical swing state, but she is now tied with him in Pennsylvania. Nineteen electoral college votes, and possibly the White House, hang in the balance there. It is quite the turnaround. Trump had successfully defended a slim lead for seven straight months. Biden never surpassed the Republican a single time in the RCP Average. Harris pulled ahead of him in just two weeks as Trump slowly switched gears to attack his new rival. The nicknames tell the story. None of the early ones stuck. “Laffin Kamala” gave way to “Lyin’ Kamala” and finally “Crazy Kamala” throughout the summer as Republicans griped that the “Harris Honeymoon” wouldn’t end. When he wasn’t talking about Biden’s exit, Trump struggled to define Harris. For his part, McCormick did it in less than three days. “This is what voters down ballot will be seeing in every Senate race from [Nevada] to [Pennsylvania] until November,” a Republican operative texted RCP less than 72 hours after the Biden switch for Harris. It was a link to a 90-second McCormick ad that was about to drop online. The Republican doesn’t say a single word in the spot. Instead, the GOP campaign cut an ad to give Harris and Casey the spotlight. “Kamala Harris is inspiring and very capable. The more people get to know her, they’re going to be particularly impressed by her ability,” Casey says at the beginning of the ad before a supercut follows of the vice president offering some of her most progressive policy prescriptions like ending the Senate filibuster, banning fracking, decriminalizing illegal immigration, and mandating gun buyback programs. “There were no Republican voiceovers, no dark lights or ominous language,” McCormick said of the ad. “It was just her in her own words, saying what she believes. And then it was Senator Casey saying, she’s ready to be president today.” The quotes from Harris were from her failed 2020 campaign for the Democratic nomination. The goal was guilt by association: Tying Casey to Harris, who was once rated the most liberal member of the Senate. A spokeswoman for the Casey campaign responded by saying that “McCormick is grasping at straws” before noting that the senator has voted against fracking bans already and supported the bipartisan Senate border bill, which Harris pledges to sign into law if elected. The spokeswoman added that “Casey is actually delivering for the Commonwealth by holding greedy corporations accountable, lowering costs, and supporting our veterans and seniors.” The incumbent certainly hasn’t held the Democratic nominee at arm’s length. In Pittsburgh earlier this week, Casey told a crowd that Harris “has proven” she is ready not just to be “our commander in chief” but is “ready in these next 60 plus days to take on Donald Trump and win.” Republicans are still thrilled with the McCormick blueprint. Trump delegate Christian Ziegler called it “one of the most brutal and effective ads I’ve seen in a while” before suggesting that the advertisement should be played “every moment from now until November.” That strategy did not materialize immediately, at least on the national stage. Before Trump dubbed his opponent “Comrade Kamala,” her campaign quietly disavowed her more liberal positions in written statements to the press. During a CNN interview at the end of the summer, Harris finally disavowed her previous calls to ban fracking and decriminalize border crossings, stressing, however, that “my values have not changed.” McCormick doesn’t make much of those denials, of course. He again defined the race during the RCP interview by asking if voters “are willing to take the risk that she actually believes in all the radical stuff she once said she believed in.” His opponent, he added, “has been a sure vote for the policies of Kamala Harris.” He said he will leave it to other Republicans to run their own races, but at least for him, McCormick said, running a tape of vintage Harris “is the playbook in Pennsylvania.” Other Republicans wish Trump would have copied and pasted the McCormick attack earlier. “The Trump team got caught flat-footed. That’s a fact,” a Republican operative close to that campaign told RCP. “They lacked the ability to message properly, or to get in front of this, or to get the president on message in a reasonable timeframe. Weeks went by before the ship could be righted again.” Trump and Harris will meet for the first time on a debate stage next week in Philadelphia, and the former president previewed what the current vice president is likely to encounter. “Communism is the past. Freedom is the future,” Trump told the Economic Club of New York Thursday while hitting his opponent for embracing price controls. “It is time to send ‘Comrade Kamala Harris’ back home to California.” McCormick and Casey, for their part, have already agreed to a debate next month in a state that is seen as key not only to Republican chances of retaking the Senate but also to winning back the White House. “Pennsylvania is going to be super close,” McCormick predicted. “I suspect it’ll be super close for President Trump. I think he will win, but it is going to be a close race, and I think he knows it. That’s why he is spending so much time here.” Defining the opposition will be key for Republicans in the state and nationally. “I’m pretty confident that when people see who Kamala Harris is, President Trump will prevail,” McCormick said of the contrast. “And I’m hoping that if I continue to run a strong campaign, and they see how weak and liberal Bob Casey is, that I will prevail.” Thus ends “brat summer” for McCormick. The confusing term defies definition. The poll numbers do not. He is the candidate who has surged to a tie in Pennsylvania and likely represents the best chance Republicans have to retake the Senate. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 20:45

— Maryland Bill Aims To Protect Farms From Eminent Domain Threat For New AI Data Center Power Lines

 

at 9/9/24 6:15pm

Maryland Bill Aims To Protect Farms From Eminent Domain Threat For New AI Data Center Power Lines Powering up America by upgrading power grids for artificial intelligence data centers, onshoring manufacturing trends, and electrifying the broader economy will require thousands of miles of new transmission lines nationwide. Existing transmission lines will be upgraded, but new lines will also be needed, resulting in the seizure of private property through eminent domain. Several state lawmakers in Maryland plan to introduce new legislation that will address developer Public Service Enterprise Group, or PSEG, which is seeking to build 70 miles of new high-voltage power lines that zigzag through Baltimore, Carroll, and Frederick Counties in a project called the "Maryland Piedmont Reliability Project." The upgraded transmission lines will increase power load capacity in the state by importing power from surrounding states, such as Pennsylvania, to power new AI data centers in Frederick.  According to local media Fox Baltimore, Baltimore County Del. Nino Mangione is preparing to propose legislation to give dozens of small farms and other landowners along the 70-mile stretch of the proposed transmission line a fighting chance against PSEG. The legislation will combat the "threats of PSEG to utilize eminent domain to destroy rural Maryland." Mangione plans to propose the "Protect Maryland Farm Act," which requires a 350% premium to be added to the highest appraisal of land to compensate small farms for their "loss of income, gainful employment and disruption of their lifestyles." The legislation would be retroactive for projects proposed in 2024. "Many of these farmers, that is their business and way of life," he said, adding, "We can make sure people are getting their money's worth when it comes to disrupting their entire life."  Del. Michele Guyton, who also represents Baltimore County, told the local media outlet that she, too, opposes the use of eminent domain for the transmission line project and has "already submitted legislation about this to General Assembly bill drafters for prefiling this session." Delegate Christopher Tomlinson, who represents Carroll and Frederick Counties, said the state's energy policies will be a major topic for the 2025 General Assembly.  "I know the Republican Caucus will be coming out with a package of different energy and utility-related bills," Tomlinson said, adding, "We'll just be covered in power lines unless we decide to pull our heads out of the sand and drastically change how we manage energy in the state."  What's becoming more apparent is that local lawmakers are feeling pressure from 10,000 Marylanders in a Facebook group that has raised hell about failed 'green' energy policies by far-left Annapolis lawmakers.  Stuart Kaplow and Nancy Hudes of ESG Legal Solutions recently noted that Maryland is sleepwalking into an energy crisis because of "apocalyptic environmentalism."  Goldman Sachs was out with a note to institutional clients in early August, first covering how failed power capacity auctions in the state will lead to much higher power bills for residents:  "After a series of auction delays and relatively low clears (see chart below), PJM capacity prices appear to have finally caught up with the generative AI data center load growth story that has been central to parts of PJM." Goldman also warned that increased power capacity would be needed for grid stability. However, any new capacity could take years to come online, which essentially means, as the analysts pointed out, "higher prices are here to stay."  Great job, Marylanders. Over the years, voting blue has placed far-left activist lawmakers into positions of power in Annapolis who are ineffective managers, instead more concerned about spreading the woke religion and importing illegal aliens. The direct consequence of activist progressive lawmakers running the state is eminent domain risk to small farms and high power bills.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 20:15

— Has The Electricity Reality Check Arrived?

 

at 9/9/24 5:45pm

Has The Electricity Reality Check Arrived? Authored by Todd Snitchler via RealClearEnergy, At meetings of energy regulators, policymakers, consumer advocates, and industry this summer, the content and tone of the conversations around electric system reliability have changed dramatically. Executives from across the industry all agree that dispatchable generation is needed now and will be needed for many years to come. Most prominently, the realization and willingness to say publicly that dispatchable resources like natural gas-fired generation will be needed as the energy expansion continues and load growth accelerates for the first time in decades is a welcome admission. For several years the discussion around the future of the electrical grid was about how inexpensive it will be and how “out of political favor” resources would be moved off the grid in favor of politically favored ones without creating any disruptions or reliability challenges. And just like that, the story has changed – dramatically. Why? First, load growth – and a substantial amount of it is expected in the short term. The second is the pace of dispatchable generation retirements, without replacement generation with similar performance characteristics. The third is consistent and increasing warnings coming from reliability organizations and grid operators that a crisis is coming and coming quickly if system planning does not improve. What does this mean? In short, it is a long-awaited recognition of the reality of grid operations combined with the acknowledgment (albeit grudgingly in some circles) that dispatchable resources, like natural gas, will need to be retained and operated for a longer time horizon than many were willing to admit. This recognition matches the significant number of credible studies, including work done by McKinsey and EFI, that all said dispatchable natural gas generation would be needed even in a high renewable resource penetration scenario. As the reality of load growth, supply chain issues, permitting, siting, and construction challenges impacting all types of resources settled in and the sharp warnings of imminent reliability issues combined, it became clear that the rhetoric was far ahead of reality. Recognizing the problem is the first step in solving it. Because all resources are now accountable for reliability, including dispatchable, intermittent, and storage resources, the requirement to acknowledge and adapt to grid realities is no longer optional – it’s mission critical. The retirement of significant amounts of dispatchable resources without adequate replacements has pushed us ever closer to a system with zero margin of error.  To correct this situation, policymakers and regulators should take steps to minimize the risk to customers. First, the timing gap between retirements and additions to the system must be addressed; we can’t let existing resources off the grid before the replacements are ready. The process for connecting new generation to the grid must be reformed to ensure projects match system needs, not just policy pronouncements. Permitting and siting reforms are needed so we can deliver development of all types of energy projects. Second, policymakers must temper enthusiasm and set goals that align with the reality of system needs and operational constraints. This could mean pausing policies that hinder the deployment of needed resources or including offramps in legislation to ensure grid reliability. Third, grid operators must move more quickly to adjust markets to send the appropriate signals that will drive investment of the required resources. States must recognize the broader benefits of market participation and positive outcomes for their constituents and stop merely demanding grid operators do what one state wants to the detriment of another. States must again appreciate that the benefits of their utilities joining markets far outweigh their ability to dictate resources and timelines and then disclaim responsibility for the issues those decisions create. To close, lest anyone accuse market participants of not wanting to reduce emissions or only wanting to profit from their current resources, this reality check in no way means walking away from striving to meet policy goals. Bottom line – we can set goals, but they must be tethered to operational reality to ensure success and reliability are both achieved. Todd Snitchler is President and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA) Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 19:45

— In "Last Hurrah", Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Soars Despite Record High APRs As Savings Rate Hits Record Low

 

at 9/9/24 5:20pm

In "Last Hurrah", Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Soars Despite Record High APRs As Savings Rate Hits Record Low One month ago, when multiple discount retailers (here and here) were lamenting the sudden collapse in US consumer purchasing power, we observed the reason this unexpected hit to US consumption: as the US personal savings rate had collapsed, the growth in consumer credit was slowing, and in July, credit card debt growth posted its first decline since the covid crash, just in time for another month of record high credit card rates. But fast forwarding just one month later, when in a stunning reversal, July consumer credit growth unexpectedly reversed the dramatic June slowdown, and soared more than $25 billion, to a new record high of $5.093 trillion. Looking at the components, the sudden spike in revolving credit was most notable as credit card debt growth suddenly reversed its recent slowdown, surging by $10.6 billion, the biggest monthly increase since February and the 2nd biggest of the year. But what may be even more notable is that after two years of gradual declines in the monthly rate of increase, non-revolving credit suddenly surged by almost $15 billion, ir biggest increase since June 2023 and second biggest since late 2022! A closer look at the surge reveals that in Q2 there was also a reversal in the two components that make up non-revolving credit as total student debt unexpectedly dropped by $8.3 billion to $1.745 trillion, a reversal from the $24.2 billion increase in the previous quarter. At the same time, Car Loans accelerated, and after declining by $0.8 billion in Q1, rose by $8.5 billion in the second quarter. And while the Fed's first rate cuts is not just a matter of time, with Powell expected to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps on Sept 18, we have previously observed just how sticky consumer credit is on the way up, and how slow it is to decline on the way down. Sure enough, the sudden surge in credit card debt was a big surprise because according to the Fed, the average rate on interest-bearing credit card accounts just hit a new record high of 22.76%, which is a vivid reminder that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them. Yet with consumers ever more strapped for actual cash and equity, as the personal savings rate in the US collapses from over 5% to 2.9% - the lowest since the Lehman bankruptcy - in just one year, as all the excess savings from covid are long gone... ... there is only so much more credit card maxing out that can take place before reality finally sets in, as can be seen in the next and perhaps most striking chart yet: total credit card debt is at an all-time high while the personal savings rate is record low! Then again, with the election less than two months away - one which ensures that any credit-card fueled spending must be encouraged - don't be surprised if the White House directly orders banks to just ignore soaring delinquency and charge-off rates... ... only for the credit shock hammer to fall on the first day of Trump's new presidency. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 19:20

— The Blair Witch Project: Former UK PM Calls For Global Censorship

 

at 9/9/24 4:55pm

The Blair Witch Project: Former UK PM Calls For Global Censorship Authored by Jonathan Turley, In the 1999 cult classic The Blair Witch Project, one character tells his friends “I could help you, but I’d rather stand here and record.” For free speech advocates, we often feel that other citizens have become passive observers as an anti-free speech movement grows around us, threatening our “indispensable right.” One of the most infamous figures in this movement has been former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has long been the smiling face of censorship. As the head of the Labour Party, Blair pushed through some of the early crackdowns on free speech in the United Kingdom. He is now calling for global censorship to expand these efforts. In an interview on LBC Radio, Blair declared: “The world is going to have to come together and agree on some rules around social media platforms. It’s not just how people can provoke hostility and hatred but I think… the impact on young people particularly when they’ve got access to mobile phones very young and they are reading a whole lot of stuff and receiving a whole lot of stuff that I think is really messing with their minds in a big way.” We recently discussed how the UK is already using recent rioting to crackdown further on those with opposing or “toxic” views. For years, I have been writing about the decline of free speech in the United Kingdom and the steady stream of arrests. A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers. Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.” Last year, Nicholas Brock, 52, was convicted of a thought crime in Maidenhead, Berkshire. The neo-Nazi was given a four-year sentence for what the court called his “toxic ideology” based on the contents of the home he shared with his mother in Maidenhead, Berkshire. While most of us find Brock’s views repellent and hateful, they were confined to his head and his room. Yet, Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement: “I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.” Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values: “[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others…” Even though Lodder agreed that the defendant was older, had limited mobility, and “there was no evidence of disseminating to others,” he still sent him to prison for holding extremist views. After the sentencing Detective Chief Superintendent Kath Barnes, Head of Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE), warned others that he was going to prison because he “showed a clear right-wing ideology with the evidence seized from his possessions during the investigation….We are committed to tackling all forms of toxic ideology which has the potential to threaten public safety and security.” Blair’s views have been echoed by Speaker of the House Sir Lindsay Hoyle who declared: “Misinformation is dangerous. Social media is good but its also bad when people are using it in a way that could cause a riot, threat, intimidation, suggesting that we should attack somebody, it’s not acceptable. What we’ve got to do is factually correct what’s up there, if not I think the government has to think long and hard about what they are going to do about social media and what are they going to put through parliament as a bill. “I believe it should be across, it doesn’t matter what country you are in, the fact is that misinformation is dangerous and no misinformation, or threats, or intimidation should be allowed to be carried out on social media platforms.” As with the effort in Brazil to block X entirely for refusing to censor political opponents of the government, Blair’s call for global censorship is where the movement is going next. Notably, after Musk purchased Twitter, Hillary Clinton called upon European officials to force him to censor American citizens under the infamous Digital Services Act (DSA). Recently, Democratic leaders like Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison praised Brazil for its action to prevent citizens from having access to unfettered news sources. Interviews like the one with Tony Blair are not just meant to intimidate or scare others. They reflect a comprehensive campaign from our political elite to enforce censorship on a national and transnational scale. If you think that this latest Blair Witch Project is just another scary production, you have not been paying attention. *  *  * Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 18:55

— Porn Streamer OnlyFans Spews $630 Million In Dividends On Owner Radvinsky

 

at 9/9/24 4:30pm

Porn Streamer OnlyFans Spews $630 Million In Dividends On Owner Radvinsky Since the start of 2023, UK-based OnlyFans, a major hub for porn content-creators, has paid more than $630 million in dividends to its owner Leonid Radvinsky, the company announced.  The firm also said the number of content creators and fan accounts has leapt by almost a third over 2022 levels, to 4.1 million and 305 million, respectively. Pretax profits grew from $525 million to $658 million in the year ending November 2023. The enterprise has a lean structure, with only 41 employees a director. Though best known for its voluminous sex content, the site does has some other types of content, such as wellness, sports and music.  Radvinsky bought 75% of OnlyFans in 2018, from Guy and Tim Stokely, a father-son duo who launched the platform in 2016 with $12,500. His purchase price is unknown, but thought to be in the millions. In its original form under the Stokelys' ownership, the platform was family-friendly, but Radvinsky quickly mutated it into a "hive of pornography," as Indy100 called it.  Ukrainian-American Leonid Radvinsky's porn empire has helped him amass a fortune of more than $3.8 billion (LinkedIn photo via BBC) OnlyFans is just the tip of 41-year-old Radvinsky's sprawling porn empire, which dates back before his 2002 graduation from Northwestern University, where he studied economics. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Radvnisky ran a group of websites offering access to porn sites via "illegal" and "hacked" passwords, Forbes has reported. Some of the promoted sites dangled a promise of links to underage performers. One of them, Password Universe, promoted a link to a site supposedly catering to pedophiles with 10,000 "illegal pre-teen passwords." Another site, Working Passes, included in its smutty universe a supposed link to "the hottest underaged hardcore" that featured 16-year-olds. Still another linked to "the hottest bestiality site on the web," according to Forbes.  The magazine noted that "there’s no evidence that any of Radvinsky’s sites actually linked to child pornography or bestiality." Apparently, the business model was all about being paid for clicks that led to other porn sites, and the taboo links on Radvinsky's sites seemingly led to other sites promoting still more links. His next known steps into porn profit came via sites promoting links to celebrity sex tapes, and the launch of MyFreeCams, a major porn-webcam platform.    Porn-content producer Bryce Adams has some 1 million followers on OnlyFans, at a regular price of $6.99 a month; OnlyFans takes a 20% cut of all revenue on the site (via Business Insider) News of Radvinsky's enormous cash haul comes months after UK regulators announced they were investigating "whether OnlyFans has contravened its duties to implement appropriate measures...to protect under-18s from encountering restricted material such as pornography."  In February, Radvinsky and his wife Katie Chudnovsky reportedly pledged to contribute $11 million to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the highly-influential political group promoting the agenda of the State of Israel in the United States.  Since October 7th, Leonid Radvinsky has contributed more than any other individual to the Israel lobby group AIPAC, according to internal donor records. The UK-based wealthy owner of OnlyFans contributed over five times the amount to AIPAC compared to the second-largest donor. pic.twitter.com/uYqbQoMcbO — MintPress News (@MintPressNews) May 14, 2024 While The Lever identified him as a donor via an internal donor list the outlet had obtained, Radvinksy denied it, saying, "I didn’t donate or pledge $11M" and adding that his statement “appl[ies] to me / my foundation / my family.” When The Lever asked Radvinsky to explain documentation of a wire transfer from Chudnovsky to AIPAC, he stopped responding.   Born in Odesa, Ukraine, the low-profile Radvinsky now reportedly lives somewhere in Florida and has a Forbes-estimated net worth of $3.8 billion.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 18:30

— Tropical Storm Francine May Hit Louisiana Energy Complex As Category 2 Hurricane 

 

at 9/9/24 4:23pm

Tropical Storm Francine May Hit Louisiana Energy Complex As Category 2 Hurricane  Update (1823ET): The National Hurricane Center expects Tropical Storm Francine to strengthen overnight into Tuesday. The storm could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane and make landfall on Wednesday evening in Central Louisiana.  Bloomberg data shows that dozens of offshore oil platforms and inland refineries are in the storm's cone of uncertainty ahead of landfall.  Earlier, several oil/gas companies pulled workers from offshore platforms. Here's more from Bloomberg:  Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among the companies taking measures such as evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities, and shutting in some wells. The storm's forecast path intersects with fields that account for roughly 125,000 barrels of crude and 300 million cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, according to Bloomberg calculations of government data. On its expected track, Francine may rake nine major platforms, including Enchilada, Cerveza, Perdido and Hoover. Enki Research, which tracks tropical activity and forecasts disasters, wrote on X that storm impacts on the oil/gas complex across Louisiana will be "short term." On current forecast #Francine should only cause transient disruption to #oilandgas production in the Gulf and refineries; ExxonMobil Baton Rouge Refinery is in the swath but if nothing breaks that shouldn't (and the forecast is right!) should be short term impact as well ... pic.twitter.com/x9p1N3DGf6 — Enki Research (@EnkiResearch) September 9, 2024 WTI futures stopped a multi-session slide on Monday, finding a floor around the $68/bbl handle on potential storm impacts.  *    *    *  Update (1500ET): Tropical Storm Francine’s path intersects with federal leases that yield ~124.8k b/d of oil and 298.2m cf/d of gas as well as 24k b/d of condensate: Bloomberg calculations — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2024 The tropical threat to offshore oil platforms and inland refineries in the Gulf Coast has supported WTI prices throughout Monday.  *    *    *  Update (1111ET):  Chevron announced that non-essential employees and contractors have been pulled from four platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of a tropical storm expected to hit the region in just a few days.  Bloomberg said Chevron workers from the Anchor, Big Foot, Jack/St. Malo, and Tahiti installations have been evacuated, noting that production in the Gulf so far remains 'normal'.  The National Hurricane Center said the tropical system will be named Tropical Storm Francine once it begins to organize. It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday before landfall along the northwestern US Gulf Coast on Wednesday.  One major concern is the storm's projected path into America's energy complex. First, dozens of offshore oil rigs and refineries on land are in the storm's cone of uncertainty.  WTI crude oil futures are up nearly 1% to the $68/bbl handle. "Finally, tracking the formation of a storm system in the southern Gulf of Mexico at the moment, I would expect a bid to oil and products on the back of this. NOAA estimate this will hit the Texan coast around Tuesday evening and Louisiana the following day with a fairly high probability of tropical storm level winds. Quick look at WTI and RBOB and I wouldn't say there has been a material change in positioning on the most recent data, still lower end of length and I would expect new shorts given last week's price action. One to watch," Goldman's Ranald Falconer told clients this AM. *    *    *  Oil and gasoline futures moved higher early Monday as the National Hurricane Center tracked a potential tropical system that threatened parts of the US Gulf Coast later this week. The storm could slam into the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, accounting for about 60% of US refining capacity.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, or Invest 91L, churns in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Monday and is forecasted to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern US Gulf Coast late Wednesday. The storm emerges right on time, at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is interesting to note that this hurricane season has been very quiet. "While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damage winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night," the NHC wrote in its latest update.  The latest hurricane trajectory models show strong consensus that the tropical system could make landfall along the Louisiana coast. This area of the Gulf Coast is home to approximately 60% of US refining capacity. Bloomberg data shows several refineries are in the storm's cone of uncertainty.  "A small recovery in prices is underway this morning, inspired by hurricane warnings that might threaten the US Gulf Coast, but the wider conversation remains on where demand will come from and what OPEC+ can do," PVM analyst John Evans told Reuters.  In recent weeks, Goldman's commodity analyst—now without "supercycle" permeable Jeff Currie—Daan Struyven slashed his expected range for Brent oil prices by $5 to $70-$85 per barrel, citing weaker Chinese oil demand, high inventories, and rising US shale production. The biggest driver for the cut is his belief that "OPEC will raise production in Q4..."  Morgan Stanley has also recently revised its oil price forecasts downward, reflecting expectations of increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers amid signs of weakening global demand. The bank now anticipates that while the crude oil market will remain tight through the third quarter, it will begin to stabilize in the fourth quarter and potentially move into a surplus by 2025. Morgan Stanley has cut its forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel, down from $85, and now expects prices to gradually decline to $75 per barrel by the end of 2025, slightly lower than their previous estimate of $76. None of this is new to the market, where sentiment is ultra-bear...  However, a tropical system that supercharges in the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters and knocks out a few refineries could easily send energy prices back up. That would spike gas prices at the pump again, putting the Biden-Harris team in a difficult spot ahead of the November elections.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 18:23

— Does Anyone Else Smell A Market Crash In The Air?

 

at 9/9/24 4:05pm

Does Anyone Else Smell A Market Crash In The Air? Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Markets are manipulated, yes, but they're still structures of tightly bound, self-organizing complexity which lend themselves to sudden non-linear collapses. Just as thunderstorms scent the air before their arrival, market crashes often announce themselves in the autumn zephyrs. Markets don't crash when everyone's in full-blown panic? they crash when the headlines and data are reassuring, analysts are confident in ever-higher profits, and complacency reigns supreme, evidenced by record-high household allocation in stocks and bullish sentiment readings. Markets crash after a brief bit of panic selling is immediately bought and markets are returned to a permanently high plateau of valuation as we saw in August, as the S&P 500 shot back up within a whisker or two of all-time highs. Punters buy every dip because this quick reaction to any drop has been richly rewarded for 15 years, and everyone has confidence in the Fed Put , ie the belief that the Fed will move Heaven and Earth to restore "market confidence" and the wealth effect . In other words, market participants have embraced moral hazard : there is no real downside, there is only upside to buying every dip. Markets crash when the rot beneath the surface is invisible or goes unnoticed. The few doom-and-gloomers who note extremes are immediately mocked off the stage, and the headlines tout the resilience of the economy, markets, employment, profits, and the techno-wonders heading our way. After the crash nobody predicted, analysts swarm like ravenous locusts to the digital airwaves to lay claim to their prescience: look, look, I added a one-line disclaimer about "irrational exuberance" at the end of my report! I'll spare you the analog charts and go right to the chase: the Oasis Indicator , brought to our collective attention by Joe Sullivan-Bennett via BondVigilantes.com: The Peculiar Relationship Between Oasis & Periods Of Extreme Market Volatility (Zero Hedge). (Fun fact: Before Oasis Wonderwall , there was George Harrison's 1968 soundtrack LP Wonderwall .) Those turning up their nose at the Oasis Indicator might benefit from pondering these "jaws of death" charts. Everything is extreme and stays extreme until it doesn't. Consider the gaping pearly teeth of the SPX (S&P 500) and JPY (Japanese yen). Or the Mack the Knife of SPX and Fed reserves: You know when that shark bites with his teeth, Scarlet billows start to spread... And last but not least, the 2-year Treasury yield and the Nasdaq Index:a loaded mousetrap if there ever was one. There's no convincing the complacent. You either sense what's coming or you don't. It's like a sixth sense in a way, an intuitive awareness developed by absorbing huge losses in previous "unpredicted" crashes. Markets are manipulated, yes, but they're still structures of tightly bound, self-organizing complexity which lend themselves to sudden non-linear collapses. But never mind, a little autumn shower never hurts anyone. And so nobody carries an umbrella on a day that starts out sunny and clouds over too quickly to respond. *  *  * Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 18:05

— Goldman Finds "Thrift Trends Outperform" Amid Consumer Slowdown 

 

at 9/9/24 3:40pm

Goldman Finds "Thrift Trends Outperform" Amid Consumer Slowdown  Goldman cited new data in a note to clients on Monday from Placer.ai, a startup that tracks and analyzes foot traffic from mobile devices at brick-and-mortar retailers. The data revealed that consumers continue trading down to 'off-price' stores as elevated inflation and high interest rates financially squeeze low- and mid-tier consumers.  The team of Goldman analysts, led by Brooke Roach and Evan Dorschner, told clients they updated their "trackers for August store traffic on a visits per venue basis (sourced via Placer.ai) for department stores, off-price, and select specialty retailers and others within our coverage."  "On balance, traffic trends sequentially improved in August across every retailer we track following weaker results in July," the analysts said.  However, they pointed out, "Within this, off-price and thrift trends continue to outperform other consumer discretionary retailers, while department store and specialty retail traffic results have been fairly choppy YTD. Athletic brands (lululemon and Nike Factory Store) have underperformed."  Thrift is in... What's not in is paying full retail at Lululemon Athletica and Nike stores.  And we wonder why.  Savings rate record low; Credit card debt record high pic.twitter.com/ggmRlCvGcW — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2024 The big takeaway from the latest earnings season in corporate America is extreme weakness from low/mid-tier consumers. Last month, we noted that earnings call mentions of a "consumer downturn" soared to the highest levels since the financial crisis. Also, "trading down" mentions have surged in recent years as the middle class implodes under failed Bidenomics. The last time this happened was around GFC.  Welcome to America under Biden-Harris. The inflation storm has transformed a nation of consumers into Walmart and Dollar General shoppers. Goldman told clients on July 15 that Walmart had the best grocery deals.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 17:40

— VDH: The Biden-Harris World Is Afire

 

at 9/9/24 3:15pm

VDH: The Biden-Harris World Is Afire Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness, Somehow the United States ended up this summer with no engaged president and an absent vice president who avoids the missing president and is frantically repudiating everything she co-owned the last three years. The world was already confused over how President Joe Biden was apparently declared by unnamed Democratic insiders and donors unfit and unable to continue as their presidential candidate—as if he were a dethroned Third-World usurper. It further wondered how those who staged his removal had no problem allowing him, in his debilitated state, to continue as America’s commander-in-chief until January 20, 2025. They demonstrated their priorities that focus on retaining power, not the welfare of the nation or the will of over 14 million Biden primary voters. Vice President Kamala Harris, until Biden’s forced abdication, was judged by these same backroom fixers as too incompetent to ever be commander-in-chief and thus for three years a good reason why Biden apparently was not forced out earlier. Now nominal Vice President Harris is on the campaign trail nonstop, while Biden has taken the most vacation time off and worked the shortest workweek in presidential memory. The world again wonders who is in charge, what they believe, who is a friend, and who is an enemy. Harris is busy trying to get elected on three premises: disowning her prior co-ownership of what was mostly a disastrous Biden term and certainly no recommendation for reelection; reinventing her affluent radical past and present as moderate and working-class; and keeping absolutely silent about any detailed agenda or policy plan for governance as president. Our rivals and opponents abroad cannot decide which is better for their own anti-American agendas—a derelict and absent Biden-Harris or dealing with a cognitively challenged Biden and a linguistically loopy Harris? So, again, who or what now governs America? Is it Biden again at the beach or closing up shop at noon for his nap and early bedtime? Or is it Vice President Harris, far from the White House, out campaigning and confused over who she really is or wants to be, what, if anything, she plans on doing if elected president, and how to avoid any unscripted moment? Or are our real rulers the stealth cabal of Democratic grandees and billionaire donors who arranged the Biden presidency by forcing out his 2020 primary rivals, staged the conspiratorial silence about his real disabilities for well over three years, ambushed him, and forced him off the Democratic ticket, and are now frantically reinventing Kamala Harris as capable and centrist when just a few months ago they had written her off as incompetent and a hopeless wannabe California radical? As a result, a confused but also encouraged world of enemies watches the listless United States and wonders whether to try something stupid. In this widening vacuum, lots of foreign opportunists, outright enemies, and nihilists are seizing the day—on the assurance that Biden is not a lame duck, but a lame, lame duck, and Harris is a near functionary in search of an identity and an idea. The Houthis, a ragtag cabal of terrorists who hijacked Yemen after shaking off a few prior Biden “precision” retaliatory strikes, now “own” the Red Sea. They just hit a Greek-flagged oil tanker that is now adrift and polluting the Red Sea. It serves as their warning for commercial ships to keep clear of their mare nostrum. The Houthis expect neither a Western nor an American response to ensure safe transit in and out of the southern Mediterranean by the world’s commercial fleet. Apparently, they believe that they are so backward, and their drones are so cheap and simple that the top-heavy U.S. cannot afford to hit their ad hoc launches with sophisticated, multimillion-dollar, and often misapplied weapons. And they are probably right. Indeed, under Biden-Harris, the world has now lost free and safe transit in the Red Sea, the Black Sea, the South China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Will the Caribbean or mid-Atlantic be next? The military is short thousands of troops, the merchant marines idling ships. Our NATO enemy/“ally” Turkey—when it is not threatening to send missiles against fellow NATO member Greece, bragging about once again ethnic cleansing Armenians, leveling more warnings to Cyprus, bombing the Kurds, colluding with the Russians and Chinese, trying to veto Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, or claiming US nuclear weapons based in Turkey are virtually its own—apparently has created such an anti-American climate that its pro-Erdogan street thugs feel they can beat up visiting American sailors, docking at Izmir to help aid the Turkish navy. Not a peep follows from the White House. If it had, President Recep Erdogan would have leveled one of his accustomed unhinged responses. Hamas just murdered more of its Israeli hostages, among them an American citizen. Now non-candidate Biden is apparently still more worried about 250,000 Muslim voters in Michigan (who profess more solidarity with Hamas than lament the murder of a fellow citizen) than US interests in the Middle East. He customarily and matter-of-factly issued one of his empty editorials before returning to form by performance art blasting Israel. In Biden’s world, our closest and only democratic ally in the Middle East is at fault because it will not, this election year, give constant concessions to the murderous Hamas clique. Biden-Harris forget that Hamas started the current war by butchering 1,200 Israelis at a time of peace, scrambled back to its subterranean labyrinth with over 250 hostages, hid their terrorist killers under schools, hospitals, and mosques, murdered any who were about to be rescued by Israeli forces, and promised to kill more if rescue attempts continue. The Biden-Harris messaging seems simple: pro-Western, civilized, and consensually governed nations are rational and so listen to the U.S. and therefore should be leveraged and often punished for rationality; anti-American, medieval, and theocratic terrorist cabals do not and therefore should be appeased and exempted from criticism or retaliation given their lawlessness. Normally, when asked about foreign threats to harm Americans or their interests, Biden gives one of his accustomed blowhard, one-word threats, “Don’t!” That empty and tired banality is now interpreted abroad as zero consequences will follow when you harm America. As a general rule, an animated Biden is far more likely to threaten to beat up or go after Trump than Hamas or Iran. Harris has been mum—other than her usual on the one hand/on the other hand vacuity. Her vice presidential candidate running mate, the usually frenetic and loquacious Tim Walz, when asked directly about the murder of an American hostage, similarly goes mum—and simply waved off the question and turned away. Walz seems as terrified as Harris of any unrehearsed utterance, as if he knows only his silence masks his foolery. Brazil, as was warned by many, is heading toward full-scale Latin American communism of the Venezuela/Nicaragua/Cuba sort. It is now waging a censorship war against Elon Musk with the tacit approval of the Biden-Harris consortium—for the crime of turning the former useful Twitter leftwing and censored megaphone into a global free speech pavilion. Ukraine has now been inside Mother Russia for weeks, which is strategically understandable but geo-strategically dangerous against a nuclear hyperpower run by a ruthless dictator. Biden has no clue what the U.S. is doing other than supplying enough arms to Ukraine not to lose but more than enough to trigger a wider theater war. Ask Biden and Harris what the U.S. strategy is on Ukraine, and one will mumble incomprehensibly, the other, if unguarded, plunge into a circular word salad about the “art of diplomacy” or “democratic fragility.” Iran is more afraid of an Israeli response than U.S. threats. Or is it worse than that? Does the theocracy now rely on Biden-Harris to restrain any Israeli retaliation for the tens of thousands of rockets launched by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran against the Jewish state.? All Biden-Harris had to do was continue the Trump protocol of warning Iran to stay out of the conflict. Instead, it de facto greenlighted the Iranian supply chain to Hamas and Hezbollah and turned all of them loose to murder. In truth, US foreign policy toward Iran is the resumption of the Obama-era embrace of the supposed underdog Shiite/Persian counterweight to Gulf moderates and democratic Israel. Biden-Harris cares not a whit whether Iran goes nuclear and might even in their warped Ben-Rhodes/Barack Obama-era imbecility tacitly support such nuclearization to “rein in” the Jewish state. Mexico’s outgoing “president,” Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has now unabashedly also gone full communist. As he preps the way for his even harder-left successor, Obrador is seeking to destroy what is left of Mexico’s democracy. AMLO, remember, bragged of the tens of millions of illegal aliens that Mexico drove out and into the U.S.—especially given the $60 billion in remittances they send to prop up an otherwise failed narco-state. In retirement, he will brag that he was the first Mexican president to destroy the U.S. border. He even urged all Mexican-American expatriates to vote anti-Republican. For the next few months, he will cooperate with the US to slow down the influx northward in order to allow Harris-Biden to claim they are for pre-November 5 election-cycle “border security.” And thereby help Harris get elected and welcome in another 10 million illegal aliens. In his delusions, AMLO—who proved one of the truly dangerous anti-Americans on the world stage—thinks he is winning phase two of the 19th-century Mexican War. In fact, all he is proving is that millions of Mexicans want out of his country and only romanticize it when they are safely and permanently distant from its numerous failed paradigms. In sum, there really is no President Biden or Vice President Harris. The former is non compos mentis and failing ever more rapidly. The latter has no clue who she is or what she should do. The cabal that engineered their respective exits and entrances cares more about retaining power than using it for American interests. So, we are in perilous times. All of our enemies and even former neutrals are coming out of the woodwork. They are convinced that the next two months offer one-time advantages—unless Harris is elected and thus can extend their opportunities for four more years of what Americans see as a chaotic decline, but the world abroad views as a rare and ripe opportunity. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 17:15

— CIA, MI6 Chiefs Praise Ukraine's Kursk Invasion For Bringing War To 'Ordinary Russians'

 

at 9/9/24 2:25pm

CIA, MI6 Chiefs Praise Ukraine's Kursk Invasion For Bringing War To 'Ordinary Russians' Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, CIA Director William Burns and Richard Moore, the head of the UK’s MI6 foreign intelligence agency, spoke at an unprecedented joint public event in London on Saturday, where they praised Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Moore said the Kursk invasion was "typically audacious and bold on the part of the Ukrainians, to try and change the game" and said it had "brought the war home to ordinary Russians." Sir Richard Moore & William Burns speak at an FT event on Saturday, via Financial Times Burns said the operation in Kursk was a "significant tactical achievement" that boosted morale in Ukraine. While the fighting continues in Kursk, Russian forces have been making more rapid gains in Ukraine’s Donbas region since the invasion was launched. The US and its allies claim they weren’t involved in the planning of the Kursk invasion, but a Ukrainian soldier said Western intelligence was crucial for the attack. Ukrainian forces have been using US and British weapons in the assault, marking a significant escalation of the proxy war. At the event, which was hosted by the Financial Times, Burns downplayed concerns about potential Russian escalations in response to the Western support for Ukraine. Burns said the following: I think there was a moment in the fall of 2022 when there was a genuine risk of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. I have never thought, however, and this is the view of my agency, that we should be unnecessarily intimidated by that. Putin’s a bully and he is going to continue to saber-rattle from time to time. And Burns acknowledged that despite the Kursk operation being an 'achievement' it has actually done little or nothing toe weaken President Putin's power: Burns described the Kursk offensive as a "significant tactical achievement" that has served to boost Ukrainian morale as well as expose some of the vulnerabilities of Putin’s Russia and his military. Last year’s short-lived insurrection carried out by former Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin also helped to dent this narrative, Burns said. The CIA chief does not, however, see Putin’s grip on power weakening. "He does one thing really well, and that’s repress people at home." ? MI6 chief Richard Moore is sharing a stage with CIA chief Bill Burns for the first time. Moore says UK and US decide between them who should carry out certain operations using a "best athlete model" (whoever is best for the job) pic.twitter.com/B1O3tu0OZx — Larisa Brown (@larisamlbrown) September 7, 2024 The event marked the first time the heads of the CIA and MI6 had appeared in public together. Both spy agencies have been deeply involved with Ukraine’s intelligence agencies following the 2014 coup in Kyiv that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 16:25

— Stocks Bounce After Brutal Week Despite Apple Unveiling A Dud

 

at 9/9/24 2:10pm

Stocks Bounce After Brutal Week Despite Apple Unveiling A Dud After the worst week for the S&P since the March 2023 bank crisis... ... one which sent the Nasdaq to one of the most oversold levels since the covid crash... ... today's bounce back was basically a formality, and bounce back we did after the brutal start to September... ... as all sectors were deep in the green (well, almost all)... ... yet while some tech names enjoyed today's session, chief among them Palantir and Dell, which learned they would be added to the S&P500 index, pushing the latter to its best one-day gain since February... ... and even Nvidia managing a rebound from the critical $100 level... ... others were less lucky, Google parent Alphabet most notably as the tech giant dropped another 3%, down on 4 of the past 5 days, 7 of the past 9, and decisively breaching below its 200DMA... ... and AAPL failing to capialize on today's iPhone 16 reveals, which was largely viewed as a dud, sending the stock to session lows before recovering... ... and down 5 of the past 6 sessions. And so, as the Mag 7 generals that have led the market for the past 2 days are starting to wobble, the critical support below the Mag 7 index is in jeopardy. If the key support line gives way, then it is the 100DMA, then 200DMA... and then things get very ugly... ... although as Goldman TMT specialist Peter Callahn notes, positioning is not yet a major problem: Goldman Prime Broker data shows overall long/short net and gross exposures are moderate, based on a 3-year look-back. Hedge funds and mutual funds cut exposure to Info Tech, holding their lowest tilts to the sector in the past decade. In TMT subsector positioning: Internet Semis Software Hardware Payments CME; positioning is no longer a bearish factor for the sector. That's the good news. The bad news as Goldman's Tony Pasquariello noted over the weekend, is that systematic buying is now reversing, and the massive buyback bid which kickstarted the August rebound, enters its blackout period next Friday, among the notable factors that are about to become a headwind for stocks, to wit: Demand from the systematic trading community has diminished. Corporate buybacks are tapering, reducing a key support for the market. Follow-ons and block trades are increasing, but may not fully offset the fading buybacks. As the derivatives expiry on the 20th approaches, key drivers of the August market bounce (systematic demand and buybacks) will likely fade. Household investment activity, another key market support, is also slowing down, raising concerns for continued upward momentum. But wait, there's more headwinds for the all-important generals, with the annual earnings growth for the Mag 7, still at impressive levels, set for a long, painful convergence with the rest of the S&P500. Meanwhile, while markets enjoyed today's rally, that can and will quickly reverse with dealer still deep in negative gamma territory, and all that would take for another trapdoor lower is a sudden drawdown in stocks which forces dealers to chase risk to the downside. While stocks staged a comeback, the rest of the market was quiet, with bond yields failing to rebound, and after rising in the early morning, yields gradually faded all day only to closer down on the day... ... which in turns hammered the all important carry trade, as the USDJPY first ramped higher after the European open, only to slink back ahead of the cash open and stay there... ... and finally, no matter what happens across the rest of the market universe, one place where the bid refuses to fade is gold: after getting hammered on Friday in the aftermath of Waller's comments which were interpreted by Timiraos as hawkish, gold once again rebounded and has managed to recover most of its losses as it trades just shy of its all time highs. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 16:10

— Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive New Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says "Nein"

 

at 9/9/24 1:35pm

Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive New Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says "Nein" It has been a while since we were reminded that without the ECB's constant (and endless) backstop, the Frankenstein monster that is the European (fiscal Dis)Union, is doomed. Well, this morning, former ECB President Mario Draghi reminded us of just that when he called on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year and commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to make the bloc more competitive with China and the US. In his long-awaited report on European Union competitiveness (link here), Draghi urged Europe to "develop its advanced technologies" (unclear what those are: maybe cultural appropriation from integrating 10 million Muslim immigrants in the past decade), create a plan to meet its climate targets and boost defense and security of critical raw materials, labeling the task “an existential challenge” because "if Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions." To achieve his proposed goal, Draghi said that Europe would need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP in order to transform its economy so that it can remain competitive.  Needless to say, this is not only unprecedented  - for comparison, the additional investments provided by the Marshall Plan between 1948-51 amounted to around 1-2% of GDP annually - it will simply not happen without a huge global crisis which will make the panicked reaction to the covid pandemic pale by comparison. In short, Europe is cooked unless it unleashes the biggest spending spree in its history, surpassing even the post WWII Marshall Plan, one that would also require pretty much constant QE (to monetize all the newly issued debt) and send gold and crypto to unprecedented highs. “For the first time since the Cold War we must genuinely fear for our self-preservation,” Draghi told reporters in Brussels Monday. “And the reason for a unified response has never been so compelling and I am confident that in our unity we will find the strength to reform.” And by "strength" he meant just the right crisis to greenlight what will be a record avalanche of spending and debt issuance. Draghi’s report notes that EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, driven by smaller advances in productivity. Germany has emerged as a particular weak spot as its industrial sector continues to struggle with high energy costs and a loss of competitiveness to China. GDP in the euro zone’s biggest economy is barely higher than before the pandemic. Draghi also warned that EU economic growth was “persistently slower” than in the US, calling into question the bloc’s ability to digitalize and decarbonize the economy quickly enough to be able to rival its competitors to the east and west. CHART OF THE DAY: From Mario Draghi's report on European competitiveness. How the commodity trading industry profited from the 2021-22 market chaos. (Note that last data point in 2022, and profits already came down in 2023. Link to report: https://t.co/aA2gUgAeQG) #OOTT pic.twitter.com/8mnDWkyM2e — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 9, 2024 To be expected, implementing the report’s most ambitious proposals, such as more joint debt, would face significant push back from countries including Germany and the Netherlands, that are strongly opposed to deeper fiscal integration as it means Europe's less advanced "southern" countries would be a drain on "northern" Europe's hard work and resources... again  . What’s more, most of the largest EU countries are contending with difficult domestic political situations that could give them limited room to maneuver. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who tasked Draghi with delivering the report, will need to decide how much of his recommendations to pursue. Mario Draghi’s critique is accurate. A thorough review of EU regulations to eliminate unnecessary rules and streamline activity in Europe would revitalize growth and strengthen competitiveness. Things should be default legal, rather than default illegal. https://t.co/NQQom5OYIS — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 9, 2024 Yet her decision is already moot: the digital ink on the report was not dry yet and Germany's Finance Minister Christian Lindner already said nein, noting that "Joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems." The Draghi report is barely out but Berlin already says "Nein" "Joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems", says Finance Minister Christian Lindner @POLITICOEurope. Pooling of risks & liability "creates democratic and fiscal problems. Germany won't agree to this" pic.twitter.com/Ix7cvF8Neu — Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) September 9, 2024 The report comes as European leaders are increasingly aware of the loss of competitiveness against the bloc’s main rivals, US and China, partly due to Europe’s energy dependency (on Russia), lack of raw materials, and lack of a defense strategy (that does not rely entirely on the US). Meanwhile the EU continues to be hampered by the inability of its telecom and defense industries to harness economies of scale and be better prepared for a more nimble security stance. As Bloomberg notes, the EU has also failed so far to push forward on a roadmap to lower the barriers of its capital markets to mobilize billions of euros across its borders needed to accelerate the development of clean technologies to meet its ambitious green targets or to create the next generation of technology champions. Draghi also pitched a rewriting of the bloc’s competition policy rulebook so that more money can be pumped into Europe’s key industrial sectors, and pressed regulators to adopt a more creative approach to vetting mergers — which could lead to the approval of more high-profile deals. He called for the EU’s merger watchdogs to take into account the pro-innovative effects of certain deals, which could offset any negative risks to competition. Draghi also gave a boon to the telecom sector, in pressing for greater consolidation across Europe to plug gaps in the bloc’s prized single market. The consequences of the slow response to the challenges posed by American financial incentives for the green transition and China’s aggressive industrial plans, with billions of dollars invested in subsidies, are already felt in some of the key industries. Volkswagen AG announced that it’s considering factory closures in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history. “Europeans need to understand that defense is not an answer, it’s just a temporary answer,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, economist at Natixis, speaking to Guy Johnson and Kriti Gupta on Bloomberg TV. “We need to attack — meaning certainly not anything but compete on better terms, meaning more innovation. The single market has to be strengthened.” Draghi also laid bare the challenges facing EU industry as it embarks on its mission to reach net zero by the middle of the century. Energy prices in the region are too high and are holding back investments, while the bloc’s climate goals are placing a heavy short-term burden on the highest-emitting sectors. China and the US do not face such obstacles, while the level of finance they provide to the sector dwarfs that of the EU. Daring to call Europe's green emperor completely naked, Draghi said that to make the energy transition an opportunity, Europe needs to sync all its policies with climate goals and come up with a joint plan for decarbonization and competitiveness that would span energy producers, clean tech and automotive sectors as well as energy-intensive companies where emissions are hard to abate. That would cost trillions. No really: the four largest emission-intensive industries in the EU, such as chemicals and metals, will require €500 billion over the next 15 years in order to decarbonize, Draghi’s report said. On top of that, transport investment needs will amount to €100 billion every year between 2031 and 2050. This, for a continent which can barely issue any new debt without ECB backstops. Draghi drew on the automotive sector for particular scorn, calling it a “key example of a lack of EU planning.” The bloc faces a real risk that EU carmakers continue to lose market share to China, which has is ahead of the 27-member bloc in “virtually all domains,” while producing at a lower cost. To address the growing digital innovation divide between the EU and the US and China, the report proposed reforming an agency to be modeled after the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which would finance breakthrough technologies and be managed by innovators rather than civil servants. The European Investment Bank should also be allowed to co-invest in promising tech companies in order to encourage more venture capital to flow to businesses. The report suggests common funding for defense R&D in a number of sectors such as drones, hypersonic missiles, directed-energy weapons, defense artificial intelligence and seabed and space warfare, but also the space sector. He also recommends ramping up collaborative procurement on defense equipment as well as favoring European companies, provided they are competitive. The former Italian premier suggested that the EU could follow the model of Next Generation EU, the recovery fund financed by €800 billion in joint debt to overcome the consequences of the Covid pandemic. Alas, any time Germany heads "joint debt" it falls into anaphylactic shock and the proposal dies a quick and gruesome death. Under current rules, the EU will cease additional net borrowing from 2026 when its pandemic-relief program expires. While there are discussions about additional issuance to fund items such as defense and climate, calls for permanent joint borrowing have been steadfastly opposed by the bloc’s economic powerhouse, Germany, which as noted above, has already said "nein." “If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage,” Draghi wrote in the report. “We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions.” Which Europe will do... until the next global crisis greenlights the opportunity to flood the market with trillions in new debt, allowing the Frankenstein monster that is Europe to kick the can for a few more years. The only question is after covid, what will "they" pull out of their hat to generate enough of a shock response (if you said war, you are right). Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 15:35

— Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive new Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says "Nein"

 

at 9/9/24 1:35pm

Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive new Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says "Nein" It has been a while since we were reminded that without the ECB's constant (and endless) backstop, the Frankenstein monster that is the European (fiscal Dis)Union, is doomed. Well, this morning, former ECB President Mario Draghi reminded us of just that when he called on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year and commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to make the bloc more competitive with China and the US. In his long-awaited report on European Union competitiveness (link here), Draghi urged Europe to "develop its advanced technologies" (unclear what those are: maybe cultural appropriation from integrating 10 million Muslim immigrants in the past decade), create a plan to meet its climate targets and boost defense and security of critical raw materials, labeling the task “an existential challenge” because "if Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions." To achieve his proposed goal, Draghi said that Europe would need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP in order to transform its economy so that it can remain competitive.  Needless to say, this is not only unprecedented  - for comparison, the additional investments provided by the Marshall Plan between 1948-51 amounted to around 1-2% of GDP annually - it will simply not happen without a huge global crisis which will make the panicked reaction to the covid pandemic pale by comparison. In short, Europe is cooked unless it unleashes the biggest spending spree in its history, surpassing even the post WWII Marshall Plan, one that would also require pretty much constant QE (to monetize all the newly issued debt) and send gold and crypto to unprecedented highs. “For the first time since the Cold War we must genuinely fear for our self-preservation,” Draghi told reporters in Brussels Monday. “And the reason for a unified response has never been so compelling and I am confident that in our unity we will find the strength to reform.” And by "strength" he meant just the right crisis to greenlight what will be a record avalanche of spending and debt issuance. Draghi’s report notes that EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, driven by smaller advances in productivity. Germany has emerged as a particular weak spot as its industrial sector continues to struggle with high energy costs and a loss of competitiveness to China. GDP in the euro zone’s biggest economy is barely higher than before the pandemic. Draghi also warned that EU economic growth was “persistently slower” than in the US, calling into question the bloc’s ability to digitalize and decarbonize the economy quickly enough to be able to rival its competitors to the east and west. CHART OF THE DAY: From Mario Draghi's report on European competitiveness. How the commodity trading industry profited from the 2021-22 market chaos. (Note that last data point in 2022, and profits already came down in 2023. Link to report: https://t.co/aA2gUgAeQG) #OOTT pic.twitter.com/8mnDWkyM2e — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 9, 2024 To be expected, implementing the report’s most ambitious proposals, such as more joint debt, would face significant push back from countries including Germany and the Netherlands, that are strongly opposed to deeper fiscal integration as it means Europe's less advanced "southern" countries would be a drain on "northern" Europe's hard work and resources... again  . What’s more, most of the largest EU countries are contending with difficult domestic political situations that could give them limited room to maneuver. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who tasked Draghi with delivering the report, will need to decide how much of his recommendations to pursue. Mario Draghi’s critique is accurate. A thorough review of EU regulations to eliminate unnecessary rules and streamline activity in Europe would revitalize growth and strengthen competitiveness. Things should be default legal, rather than default illegal. https://t.co/NQQom5OYIS — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 9, 2024 Yet her decision is already moot: the digital ink on the report was not dry yet and Germany's Finance Minister Christian Lindner already said nein, noting that "Joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems." The Draghi report is barely out but Berlin already says "Nein" "Joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems", says Finance Minister Christian Lindner @POLITICOEurope. Pooling of risks & liability "creates democratic and fiscal problems. Germany won't agree to this" pic.twitter.com/Ix7cvF8Neu — Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) September 9, 2024 The report comes as European leaders are increasingly aware of the loss of competitiveness against the bloc’s main rivals, US and China, partly due to Europe’s energy dependency (on Russia), lack of raw materials, and lack of a defense strategy (that does not rely entirely on the US). Meanwhile the EU continues to be hampered by the inability of its telecom and defense industries to harness economies of scale and be better prepared for a more nimble security stance. As Bloomberg notes, the EU has also failed so far to push forward on a roadmap to lower the barriers of its capital markets to mobilize billions of euros across its borders needed to accelerate the development of clean technologies to meet its ambitious green targets or to create the next generation of technology champions. Draghi also pitched a rewriting of the bloc’s competition policy rulebook so that more money can be pumped into Europe’s key industrial sectors, and pressed regulators to adopt a more creative approach to vetting mergers — which could lead to the approval of more high-profile deals. He called for the EU’s merger watchdogs to take into account the pro-innovative effects of certain deals, which could offset any negative risks to competition. Draghi also gave a boon to the telecom sector, in pressing for greater consolidation across Europe to plug gaps in the bloc’s prized single market. The consequences of the slow response to the challenges posed by American financial incentives for the green transition and China’s aggressive industrial plans, with billions of dollars invested in subsidies, are already felt in some of the key industries. Volkswagen AG announced that it’s considering factory closures in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history. “Europeans need to understand that defense is not an answer, it’s just a temporary answer,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, economist at Natixis, speaking to Guy Johnson and Kriti Gupta on Bloomberg TV. “We need to attack — meaning certainly not anything but compete on better terms, meaning more innovation. The single market has to be strengthened.” Draghi also laid bare the challenges facing EU industry as it embarks on its mission to reach net zero by the middle of the century. Energy prices in the region are too high and are holding back investments, while the bloc’s climate goals are placing a heavy short-term burden on the highest-emitting sectors. China and the US do not face such obstacles, while the level of finance they provide to the sector dwarfs that of the EU. Daring to call Europe's green emperor completely naked, Draghi said that to make the energy transition an opportunity, Europe needs to sync all its policies with climate goals and come up with a joint plan for decarbonization and competitiveness that would span energy producers, clean tech and automotive sectors as well as energy-intensive companies where emissions are hard to abate. That would cost trillions. No really: the four largest emission-intensive industries in the EU, such as chemicals and metals, will require €500 billion over the next 15 years in order to decarbonize, Draghi’s report said. On top of that, transport investment needs will amount to €100 billion every year between 2031 and 2050. This, for a continent which can barely issue any new debt without ECB backstops. Draghi drew on the automotive sector for particular scorn, calling it a “key example of a lack of EU planning.” The bloc faces a real risk that EU carmakers continue to lose market share to China, which has is ahead of the 27-member bloc in “virtually all domains,” while producing at a lower cost. To address the growing digital innovation divide between the EU and the US and China, the report proposed reforming an agency to be modeled after the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which would finance breakthrough technologies and be managed by innovators rather than civil servants. The European Investment Bank should also be allowed to co-invest in promising tech companies in order to encourage more venture capital to flow to businesses. The report suggests common funding for defense R&D in a number of sectors such as drones, hypersonic missiles, directed-energy weapons, defense artificial intelligence and seabed and space warfare, but also the space sector. He also recommends ramping up collaborative procurement on defense equipment as well as favoring European companies, provided they are competitive. The former Italian premier suggested that the EU could follow the model of Next Generation EU, the recovery fund financed by €800 billion in joint debt to overcome the consequences of the Covid pandemic. Alas, any time Germany heads "joint debt" it falls into anaphylactic shock and the proposal dies a quick and gruesome death. Under current rules, the EU will cease additional net borrowing from 2026 when its pandemic-relief program expires. While there are discussions about additional issuance to fund items such as defense and climate, calls for permanent joint borrowing have been steadfastly opposed by the bloc’s economic powerhouse, Germany, which as noted above, has already said "nein." “If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage,” Draghi wrote in the report. “We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions.” Which Europe will do... until the next global crisis greenlights the opportunity to flood the market with trillions in new debt, allowing the Frankenstein monster that is Europe to kick the can for a few more years. The only question is after covid, what will "they" pull out of their hat to generate enough of a shock response (if you said war, you are right). Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 15:35

— Kamala Harris Is Secluded In A Hotel With A Trump Impersonator

 

at 9/9/24 1:05pm

Kamala Harris Is Secluded In A Hotel With A Trump Impersonator Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news, Fox News reporter Bryan Llenas revealed at the weekend that Kamala Harris’ campaign has got her in a hotel in Pittsburgh on a fake stage with a Trump impersonator, desperately practising for Tuesday’s debate. “We know that Vice President Kamala Harris is in her hotel in Pittsburgh. They’ve got the lights as if it’s in a studio,” Llenas claimed, adding “They’ve got the stage. They’ve even brought in somebody who’s dressed and acting like the former President.” This is almost exactly what they did with Biden before the debate that ultimately ended him. They secluded him away for a week, trying to make his pudding brain function in order to take on Trump. Now they face a whole different challenge of drilling Harris so she can function without cheat notes, something she hasn’t done since becoming the nominee, and without being able to goad Trump into soundbite traps because of the muted microphones rule that the Harris campaign failed to get changed. The polls are once again showing Trump leading Harris in in the crucial states. #Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast (9/8) ? Trump: 63.8% (new high) ? Harris: 36% —— Swing States: chance of winning Pennsylvania - ? Trump 64-36% Michigan - ? Trump 54-46% Wisconsin - ? Trump 53-47% Arizona - ? Trump 77-23% North Carolina - ? Trump 75-25% Georgia - ?… pic.twitter.com/psf6phH98l — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024 And overall. ?NEW POLL? New York Times Poll of Likely Voters Trump 48% Harris 47% Conducted from Sept. 3 to 6, n = 1,695 pic.twitter.com/lUlwKojBL8 — Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) September 8, 2024 ?NEW POLL? New York Times Poll of Likely Voters Trump 48% Harris 47% Conducted from Sept. 3 to 6, n = 1,695 pic.twitter.com/lUlwKojBL8 — Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) September 8, 2024 BREAKING: New York Times/Siena College poll has Trump leading nationally 48% to 47%. Harris is running way behind the past Two Democrat Nominees. In Sept 2016, The NYT poll had Clinton +2 In Sept 2020, The NYT poll had Biden +8 This poll is very bad news for Harris. — David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 8, 2024 BREAKING: New York Times/Siena College poll has Trump leading nationally 48% to 47%. Harris is running way behind the past Two Democrat Nominees. In Sept 2016, The NYT poll had Clinton +2 In Sept 2020, The NYT poll had Biden +8 This poll is very bad news for Harris. — David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 8, 2024 There is no where left for Harris to hide. - pressure on Kamala to perform well in Tuesday’s debate just increased substantially. - a campaign fueled on unearned media has to do a lot of media to stay afloat. -She simply cannot hide if she wants to win. Her coalition is too fickle for that. https://t.co/9Znf3IeGME — EdAsante (@EdAsante77) September 8, 2024 Kamala Harris needs to fix this problem. She's refused to do interviews, town halls, and press conferences to establish her identity. And refused to release a campaign platform -- instead, just abandoning all her 2019 ideas. pic.twitter.com/xHHSVSSyYa — Anthony LaMesa (@ajlamesa) September 8, 2024 Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.   Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 15:05

— Israeli Strike On Alleged Syrian Chemical Weapons Facility Leaves High Death Toll

 

at 9/9/24 12:35pm

Israeli Strike On Alleged Syrian Chemical Weapons Facility Leaves High Death Toll A late Sunday night apparent Israeli aerial attack on Syria has left at least 18 people dead and 36 injured, Syrian state SANA news agency reported Monday.  This marks the highest death toll in Syria from an Israeli strike since the Gaza war began last October. Several explosions were witnessed shortly before midnight on Sunday impacting the Tartous and Hama governorates, particularly in the area of the Masyaf countryside. Israeli strikes in this coastal vicinity is somewhat rare. Image via Al Jazeera The target appears to have been a secretive facility long eyed by the West as part of the Assad government's chemical weapons program. "About half an hour before midnight, multiple airstrikes targeted the Syrian Military Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) and several nearby buildings. I heard at least eight explosions, followed by the sound of ambulances," a local resident who spoke to CNN described. Some of the injured remain in critical condition, and the unusually high death toll suggests there may have been employees and staff inside the research center building when it was hit.  Syrian Health Minister Hassan al-Ghabbash described the strikes as a "brutal and barbaric aggression" against a sovereign state. In the aftermath of the strikes, large forest fires erupted along the nearby Wadi al-Uyun highway in Masyaf. Syrian media sources released the below photograph of fires raging in the area... Image source: SANA The Associated Press has cited a UK-based anti-Assad monitoring group to claim that Hezbollah operatives were among those killed in the attack: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based war monitor, said 25 were killed, including at least five civilians, while the others included Syrian army soldiers and members of Hezbollah and other Iran-linked armed groups. One strike targeted a scientific research center in Masyaf, and others struck sites where "Iranian militias and experts are stationed to develop weapons in Syria," the observatory said. It said the research center was reportedly used for developing weapons, including short- and medium-range precision missiles and drones. However, the reality is that these weapons program facilities have been targeted by Israel going back many years, in order to degrade the Syrian Army's capabilities, also in the wake of Western allegations that Assad forces had deployed chemical weapons against 'rebel' strongholds. However, Damascus has long rejected the accusations of Washington and its Western and Gulf allies, saying instead that West-backed jihadi insurgents have launched chemical weapons attacks and carried out mass atrocities. At this moment, the region is still on edge bracing for a potential Iranian attack on Israel in response to recent major provocations. This fresh Israeli attack on Syria will certainly provoke Tehran and Damascus, and the escalation spiral might not be over. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 14:35

— Dodgers Kowtow To Teachers Unions, Honor 'Sisters Of Perpetual Indulgence'

 

at 9/9/24 12:05pm

Dodgers Kowtow To Teachers Unions, Honor 'Sisters Of Perpetual Indulgence' Authored by Brenda Lebsack & Rebecca Friedrichs via RealClearPolitics, The “Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence,” according to Catholic Vote, is “a vile anti-Catholic organization.” Their motto is “Go and sin some more” and they use the cross for pole dances. The group satirizes Catholic beliefs for the sake of activism. They mock Easter Sunday with a Hunky Jesus/Foxy Mary contest. According to the Catholic League, they hold “Midnight Confessional Contests” awarding the “hottest confessions.” So it makes sense that Dodgers fans came unglued when they heard their team would be rewarding the anti-Catholic, anti-Christian group. The Dodgers withdrew their award in response to customer outrage and disinvited the “Sisters,” but the California Teachers Association stepped in and strong-armed the Dodgers into standing with perverts against the will of their paying customers. CTA’s May 2023 New Business Item states, “CTA shall release a public statement condemning the Dodgers’ recent decision to rescind the Community Hero Award for the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence.” As veteran California teachers who’ve served within the unions and personally witnessed the radical agenda CTA imposes upon teachers, we find it suspicious that while the Dodgers are taking so much rightful heat for their June 16 celebration of the offensive “Sisters,” the CTA is getting away scot-free. CTA’s offensive intrusion into America’s national pastime and its endorsement of drag queens mocking nuns is scandalous. That’s why discerning Americans have had enough and are rising up in protest against teacher unions. As Father Sebastian Walshe of St. Michael’s Abbey in the Diocese of Orange expresses, “The statement of the CTA should alarm every Catholic parent who sends their children to California public schools. No school should be a place where children are sexualized or taught anti-Catholic prejudice.” The CTA rationalizes its stance with: “The Dodgers decision is rooted in the same bigotry that’s led to the LGBTQIA+ books being banned, drag shows being criminalized, and life-saving medical care being taken away from minors.” But this is a deceptive statement. Americans are pushing back on pornographic books, drag queen events, and sex transition surgeries on children because these things are destructive to children and an affront to families and American values. Catholics are not the only Americans offended by the CTA’s endorsement. Jews, Muslims, Protestants and teachers like us are outraged as well. Rabbi Dov Fischer, a senior congregational rabbi and law professor in California comments in his EdSource article, “The state’s school system, established to provide a safe learning climate for all students regardless of their ethnicity, race, language or religious affiliation, is now [thanks to unions] a social laboratory where students and families from devout faiths feel ostracized.” Dr. Ahmed Soboh, the Chairman of the Islamic Shura Council of Southern California, an umbrella organization of 67 mosques throughout California, agreed with the rabbi: “Making fun of religious symbols or mocking religious figures should not be celebrated, especially by those who have the honorable job of educating our children.” Most teachers would agree with the reasonable statements of Father Walshe, Rabbi Fischer, and Imam Soboh. However, the CTA does not represent the majority of teachers. CTA’s endorsement of the “Sisters” is offensive to most teachers, and it demonstrates the radical, out-of-touch views of CTA leadership. Families of faith have good reason to be appalled since CTA – and its national arm NEA – misrepresent most teachers while controlling the trajectory of public education. Sahara Medrano, a dedicated veteran teacher and a minority representative of the California Teachers’ Union State Council, sees the red flags: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that a politically charged anti-Christian culture of religious intolerance is spreading throughout public school districts across our nation. If this trend continues, our public school system will break confidence with the religious community they are entrusted to serve. Students of faith are starting to boldly speak out saying they don’t feel safe in public schools.” Teachers don’t feel safe either. And we have to ask, what does forcing the Dodgers into submission to a political agenda that harms children have to do with representing us as educators? As public school teachers who’ve also served in Christian ministry for years, we commend Muslims, Jews, Catholics, and Protestants for collectively taking a stand for true religious tolerance, by standing against the religious intolerance of CTA. And we’re calling on teachers to join in protest too. Let’s follow the lead of fed-up Americans who are using their enormous power of the purse to deliver a financial sting to the Dodgers and companies like Bud Light and Target who cave to pressure from special interest groups instead of serving their customers. Teachers can stop the power of the intolerant CTA by refusing to pay union dues, but we need your help educating teachers that they no longer have to pay unions as a condition of employment. If we help teachers empty the purses of union overlords, Americans can restore childhood innocence and freedom of speech and religion, and get back to enjoying baseball. Brenda Lebsack is a veteran teacher, former school board member, and founder of Interfaith Statewide Coalition. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 14:05

— Embattled Finance Firm B. Riley Looks To Raise Up To $410 Million From Asset Sales

 

at 9/9/24 11:40am

Embattled Finance Firm B. Riley Looks To Raise Up To $410 Million From Asset Sales Distressed financial firm B. Riley is planning the sale of its majority stake in Great American Group to reduce its leverage and try to stabilize its embattled business, according to Bloomberg. Shares were up almost 15% in early trade on the news before paring gains with the broader market. The Los Angeles-based company is negotiating the sale and has a non-binding financing agreement for its B. Riley and bebe brands businesses. These deals could raise $410 million, which B. Riley plans to use to reduce its debt with Nomura Holdings to $125 million by the end of 2024, according to Bloomberg.  The company has been under relentless attack from short sellers for its business practices and is trying to manage $2 billion in debt, federal investigations into its financial reporting, and a substantial second-quarter loss.  The firm is under investigation by the SEC regarding its asset disclosures and dealings with Brian Kahn, former CEO of Franchise Group Inc. Riley and Kahn have denied any wrongdoing, and B. Riley is cooperating with the SEC. The firm was recently forced to cut its dividend to focus on debt reduction and aims to repay senior notes due in February 2025 through asset sales and cash on hand. B. Riley also expects to amend its credit agreement with Nomura. Bloomberg reports that Chairman and Co-CEO Bryant Riley said the company is seizing the opportunity to monetize assets to accelerate debt repayment. Previous reports have suggested Oaktree Capital is negotiating a stake in Great American, and B. Riley is discussing debt amendments with lenders. Founder Bryant Riley has also made an informal offer to take the company private for $7 per share, and a special committee of independent directors is reviewing the proposal. B. Riley is also dealing with a controversial $500 million loan arranged by Nomura, backed by assets now expected to be written down by up to $370 million. This includes a loan to Kahn secured by Franchise Group shares. Nomura has faced pressure to reassess the loan’s value but has so far taken no action, Bloomberg wrote.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 13:40

— If The Fed Cuts Rates A Half-Point, Should Trump Complain, Rejoice, Neither, Or Both?

 

at 9/9/24 8:20am

If The Fed Cuts Rates A Half-Point, Should Trump Complain, Rejoice, Neither, Or Both? Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Think carefully. I will grade your answer... The current odds suggest only a 30 percent chance the Fed will cut rates by a half-point on September 18. I believe those odds are very understated because I think the next CPI report will be very Fed friendly. I will write that up shortly. Meanwhile, the question is how should Trump react if the Fed were to cut by that much, not what Trump will do. When Will We Know? We will not have a firm grasp until Wednesday September 11 (CPI report). The Fed meets a week later. My guess is the combination of last Friday’s jobs report plus the CPI report will allow the Fed to cut by 50 basis points if it wants to. Self-Grading the Answers (depending on precise reasoning) Rejoice: B+ minimum to A+ Complain: F to C Neither: F to C Both: B- minimum to A+ Rejoice Discussion Those who said Rejoice have the right idea. Trump should privately rejoice. A deteriorating economy rates to benefit Trump. Those who rejected both only because they believe complaining is counterproductive get an A. Whether complaining will add or subtract depends on how loudly and in what ways Trump does that. Complaining could very well be negative. Full A+ credit for those who fully understood the nuances. Both Discussion Those who said Both for the right reason get an A. The right reason is Trump should privately rejoice at an economy that is deteriorating badly enough to allow the Fed to cut that much. Those who think complaining will help, get grade A-. Those who think complaining will help if done properly get an A+. Those who think complaining is the bigger idea get a B-. At the time I wrote the question, I thought Both was the correct answer. But upon reflection there are a couple problems with both. First, Trump is likely to overreact. Second, this economy is deteriorating rapid and Trump, if elected, will be calling on the Fed to cut if he wins. So why should trump moan now and then beg for cuts later? Full credit if you thought about all of that and voted Both anyway. This is about what Trump should do. I have no problem with complain mildly (if it helps election chances) but it will make him look silly later when he changes his tune. Complain Discussion Complain has all of the problems of both but none of the recognition that Trump should be privately pleased about the economic realities. A deteriorating economy rates to benefit trump. Those who said complain seem to have missed the key idea or ignored it. For those who firmly believe the Fed should not cut at all, OK why? There should not be a Fed at all. But if that’s the reason, Trump sure hasn’t been saying so. Trump ridiculously stated that he could do a better job than the Fed. That is dangerously stupid. One thing worse than a Fed is putting politicians in charge of interest rates. Neither Discussion Neither is a bit confusing. But a deteriorating economy rates to benefit trump. At a minimum Trump should privately be happy. Apply the above paragraphs and rate yourself. Interesting Exchange Without reservation, I agree that the Fed will not impact the election. It’s too late. I also agree that Trump will complain even if the Fed only cuts by a quarter point. However, the reason the Fed would cut by 50 points certainly does matter. The Fed is very aware of the politics. It the Fed cuts by 50 points the underlying economic fundamentals will likely be poor and deteriorating. The Fed is well aware of the lags and the potential for complaints in both directions. If the Fed only cuts 25 basis points and the economy crumbles, Democrats will be moaning. Powell is in a no-win situation. It takes time for rate cuts to work, but time has expired. It’s too late for cuts to save the economy. So Trump should welcome a half-point cut (privately). A half-point cut is all but admission that a recession has started. It may even spook the market, further helping Trump. BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months For further economic discussion, please see BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months I recap a slew of indicators all screaming one thing: Recession. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/09/2024 - 10:20

As of 9/9/24 9:42pm. Last new 9/9/24 7:51pm.