Crooked Bough News Round-up

— What Do You See Here?

 

at 9/21/26 11:00am

What Do You See Here? Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News, A K-pop star holding a pair of Chuck Taylors was enough. Crop the frame, squint at a star-shaped spotlight, and a Nike subsidiary is suddenly in the business of hoods and hangings, according to disturbed leftists who see racism everywhere. Instead of ignoring the demented behaviour, Converse pulled the image, apologised on cue, and promised to "do better." The people filming themselves crying and torching sneakers got the ritual they wanted. The still came from Converse's Chuck 70 X campaign with Aespa singer Karina, rolled out internationally from late August. She stands inside the brand's five-pointed star, in a long white skirt, holding black high-tops. A few black activists online (like actress Yvette Nicole Brown and U.S. Rep. Troy Carter) said that this ad was "White Supremacy", so Converse apologized & took it down. It's a Korean K-Pop girl. Never apologize to the woke mob. They're crazy. pic.twitter.com/gkmCwUPYfp — Mr Reagan (@MrReaganUSA) September 21, 2026 Online, the crop did the work. Lighting on the fabric became a pointed hood. The shoes became dangling feet. The full picture - an Asian pop star in a logo spotlight - was conveniently left out. Louisiana Democrat (experts on the KKK) Rep. Troy Carter fumed "Nike and Converse, what the hell were you thinking?Your campaign shows what looks like a hooded Klansman, framed by what appears to be the dangling feet of a lynching victim. There is nothing creative or artistic about it. It is racist, reckless and deeply offensive." He went further: "Black pain is not a marketing prop. Lynching is not a creative concept. The Ku Klux Klan is not an aesthetic." He also said repairing the alleged harm would take "more than an apology written by your public relations department." Converse delivered that apology anyway. "We're sorry," the company said. "We understand why this image is deeply upsetting and recognize that we got this wrong. We removed it from our channels and are working to remove it everywhere it appeared. This should not have happened, and we will do better." Converse apologizes for shoe ads that critics blasted as evoking the KKK https://t.co/fpi8ITThA7 pic.twitter.com/rhYhu4niYg — New York Post (@nypost) September 19, 2026 A second campaign - Converse x Palmes, with figures on a ladder reaching shoes near a tree - was dragged into the same pile-on. Two different shoots, one moral script. How any American who is remotely educated can look at this horrifying ad & not see a klan hood and the feet of a hanging body...makes me speechless. I cannot fathom why @Converse would green light something so abhorrent. Lynchings of Black people in the US is NOT ancient history pic.twitter.com/t0fou2Ct4Q — NanaSue ? ?????? (@NanaSueSpeaks) September 19, 2026 Chicago photographer Stephanie Schwartz claimed on Threads: "Shadow, light, and composition. Every photographer can tell you, whoever did this ad knew EXACTLY what they were doing." Replies called it a Rorschach test. One user wrote that an Asian woman holding sneakers "tells nothing about the picture" and "everything about you." One X respondent put the optical-illusion case in the open. "People are demanding mass firings at Converse and Nike over 'blatant racism' in an ad of K-pop star Karina holding a pair of sneakers." The account added: "Look at the photo....It's an Asian woman in a white skirt, standing in a star-shaped spotlight, holding shoes. Some people squint and see a Klan hood and a lynching. That's pareidolia the same thing that makes you see faces in outlets and Jesus in toast." Treating an accidental shadow as a "coordinated hate ritual," the post argued, is not justice. It is assuming the worst and then demanding the company prove a negative. People are demanding mass firings at Converse and Nike over "blatant racism" in an ad of K-pop star Karina holding a pair of sneakers. The problem is...most of the people who approved this ad ARE LIKELY BLACK! Look at the photo....It's an Asian woman in a white skirt, standing... https://t.co/tAnKQOcbWv pic.twitter.com/sdjJATulQx — Clerpatriot (@clerpatriot) September 19, 2026 Once the crop went viral, the content shifted from captions to performance. People cut logos, painted over stars, dumped new pairs in bins and set them alight. NEW: Boycott of Converse has spread among the left-wing woke mob, with some people burning, cutting up, painting over the logo and throwing away the brand's shoes after the company released a new ad for its iconic sneakers. The campaign featured a female model holding a pair of... pic.twitter.com/N2tDlHQXq9 — I Meme Therefore I Am ?? (@ImMeme0) September 19, 2026 I found even more desperate people manufacturing outrage over Converse, virtue-signaling for clout, and proudly burning and throwing away their shoes. https://t.co/edkiudEorv pic.twitter.com/KdoBZX99qB — I Meme Therefore I Am ?? (@ImMeme0) September 21, 2026 Lindsay Clancy fan burns her Converse over an ad TikTok decided is a "coded message" from white supremacists We have a serious mental health crisis pic.twitter.com/dbYVrM9nml — End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 20, 2026 Another user circulated clips of lunatics weeping over the still, then a follow-up of a woman binning brand-new Chucks. "When normal people look at the ad all they see is a girl holding a pair of shoes," the account wrote. "When woke black people who have a constant need to play victim about something look at the ad they see a Klan member lynching a black a man." A later update noted "woke whites have joined the party." WOW ? Black Liberals are filming themselves crying over the new converse ad that they have now deemed as racist?? In their never ending quest to be victims of nonexistent racism they've now resorted to flipping through ads looking for something to be offended by. When normal... pic.twitter.com/G7K7tPvbgp — Cinema Shogun (@CinemaShogun) September 19, 2026 Not every Black voice played along. One woman said the fatigue was real and the boycott was theatre. "When will this nonsense stop? It's out of control. We are tired. So burn your Converse, cancel Converse, cancel Nike. Nobody cares." She praised the ad and said the company should not have apologised. Black woman slams the woke mob over the backlash against Converse, saying the fatigue is real and nobody cares about their boycott. She praises the ad and says the company shouldn't have apologized. She adds that people can boycott the brand all they want, but companies will... https://t.co/edkiudEorv pic.twitter.com/OlQIufGZWF — I Meme Therefore I Am ?? (@ImMeme0) September 20, 2026 Has anyone checked on this K-pop star Karina after she has been dragged all over the internet for the Converse ad??? She probably thought she booked an adorable Converse campaign that would open doors and bring her more money... Instead, the American left has cropped her ad,... pic.twitter.com/woGUOot8xG — Clerpatriot (@clerpatriot) September 20, 2026 If you looked at that Converse ad and saw a KKK hood, you need to log off and touch grass https://t.co/yAuaCYjMSE — Clown World ™ ? (@ClownWorld) September 20, 2026 Karina did nothing wrong with this Converse ad. If you looked at this and saw a KKK ad, you're psychotic and need to be checked into a mental asylum. pic.twitter.com/1moVP3flzI — Kangmin Lee | ??? (@kangminlee) September 20, 2026 Karina and SM Entertainment did not immediately respond to press queries. The singer is now attached to a controversy designed in social media feeds, not Seoul studios. Bloomberg later obtained an internal memo from Converse CEO Aaron Cain. "The images should not have been used, and we began removing them from all channels as soon as the concern was raised," he told staff. "The leadership team and I are taking a hard look at our internal review process and the critical lens we apply to our work." Cain did not spell out the changes. The timing is ugly for a reason that has nothing to do with hoods. Converse has been one of Nike's stubborn weak spots through a long run of falling sales. A brand that cannot ship growth now cannot ship a star-shaped light without a struggle session. Calls for firings and boycotts filled the replies. There is a difference between historical memory and a bizarre hunt for racist shapes in fabric. One is serious. The other is manufactured content. Converse chose the audience that treats every shadow as a manifesto. The rest of the country still sees a girl holding sneakers. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 13:00

— SoftBank To Sell $11 Billion In Junk Bonds At Soaring Yields To Fund OpenAI Investments

 

at 9/21/26 10:40am

SoftBank To Sell $11 Billion In Junk Bonds At Soaring Yields To Fund OpenAI Investments It's only appropriate that just hours after we published an extensive report looking at the trillions in debt funding the AI supercycle - which just this year stands at $568bn, of which $259bn issued in IG, followed by $256bn across Private Credit, Direct Lending, and other bilateral/non-syndicated lending (for SPVs and infrastructure finance), another $40bn for HY and $11bn for institutional loans... ... that SotBank launched what Bloomberg dubbed "one of the biggest junk bond deals ever", as the Japanese conglomerate seeks the equivalent of more than $11 billion in high  yield debt as Masayoshi Son’s conglomerate ramps up its investments in ChatGPT creator OpenAI.  If SoftBank sells about $11 billion in debt it would be one of the largest junk bond sales ever by a single firm, excluding distressed debt exchanges. The near-record offering would come in 5 tranches: the company is looking to issue $10 billion of dollar securities across three tenors, and €1 billion ($1.1 billion) of euro debt across two maturities, according to BBG sources. The proceeds from the debt sale will be used to fund a follow-on investment in OpenAI expected to close next month as well as general corporate purposes; the deal is expected to price as soon as Thursday, depending on demand.  One of the world’s largest investors in AI, SoftBank’s fortunes have become increasingly intertwined with its ability to monetize its holding in OpenAI after committing close to $65 billion to the tech pioneer. That’s put Son’s firm at the epicenter of debt-fueled bets on artificial intelligence, at a time when safety concerns about the industry have flared. SoftBank and its lead banks are sounding out investors on potential pricing for the proposed junk bond sale, offering an early glimpse of roughly how much the conglomerate may pay for the deal. All discussions are early stage and figures could change. The table below shows the indicative prices that SoftBank is feeling out with investors, though such initial price guidance has yet to be discussed and could wind up differing from these earlier discussions based on investor feedback: Those yields would all be records for SoftBank in those specific currencies and tenors if priced at those levels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, though details in corporate note offerings often change before they are actually priced. As Bloomberg notes, the latest deal adds to a flurry of recent activity by SoftBank, as it builds out its artificial intelligence financing capacity. The conglomerate entered into a $40 billion bridge loan in March to fund an additional investment in OpenAI, and recently repaid the outstanding balance of $25.9 billion on that facility. SoftBank closed out last week with nearly $21 billion in potential fresh borrowings. The group increased a margin loan backed by shares of its chip unit Arm Holdings by $5 billion to $25 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Friday. And it recently secured an additional $450 million to an existing credit line, bringing the total to $6.5 billion. In short, if OpenAi goes down it is absolutely dragging SoftBank with it.  Apollo Global is also in talks to boost the size of a loan to SoftBank by $3.6 billion to $9 billion to help it finance its investment in AI giant OpenAI. On top of that, the firm founded and led by billionaire Masayoshi Son secured an $11.87 billion loan, also to support its OpenAI investment.  As part of its funding campaign this year, SoftBank has sold almost $15 billion of notes across currencies, making it the biggest junk-rated borrower in bond markets so far in 2026, Bloomberg-compiled data show. There was also a $10 billion loan earlier this year backed by its OpenAI stake. The deals come amid a broader increase across markets in borrowing costs, as most major economies grapple with inflation. The yield on SoftBank’s dollar bond maturing in 2031 climbed to 8.2% earlier this month, up from as low as 6.7% in January, as spreads have blown out and underlying Treasury yields have risen. Recent calls by heads of some of the world’s biggest artificial intelligence platforms, including OpenAI, to slow AI advances on safety concerns, have introduced another layer of uncertainty. That contributed recently to an increase in the cost to insure SoftBank’s debt against default to the highest in three years.  In another hit to SoftBank, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s remarked that the company won’t go public this year - a move that would increase the liquidity of SoftBank’s investments - have been closely watched by investors.    Citigroup Inc. is acting as the lead bookrunner and a joint global coordinator, alongside Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley for dollar tranches. JPMorgan is the lead bookrunner for the euro-denominated notes and among the joint global coordinators, together with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 12:40

— Fertilizer Stocks Tumble As Trump Says "Working On Massive" Belarus Potash Deal

 

at 9/21/26 10:20am

Fertilizer Stocks Tumble As Trump Says "Working On Massive" Belarus Potash Deal "The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus," President Trump wrote on Truth Social just before 11 a.m. ET. Trump continued, "The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers." The immediate market impact: Intrepid Potash, CF Industries, and Mosaic shares fell to session lows. Intrepid Potash: -4.6% CF Industries: -3.5% Mosaic: -4.5% The move follows Trump slapping 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods last month after the US and Canada failed to reach a last-minute trade deal. However, the levies included significant exemptions for major Canadian imports such as oil, gas, and potash.  However, earlier, Russian news agency Interfax quoted Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as saying his country lacks the capacity to supply potash fertlizer to the West.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 12:20

— Bessent Hails "Very Successful" China Talks As Trump-Xi Summit Puts AI, Rare Earths And Energy On The Table

 

at 9/21/26 10:00am

Bessent Hails "Very Successful" China Talks As Trump-Xi Summit Puts AI, Rare Earths And Energy On The Table Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerged from roughly eight hours of talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday calling the meeting "very successful," with Washington and Beijing agreeing to new mechanisms covering trade and artificial intelligence just days before President Donald Trump hosts Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Sept. 20, 2026. Bai Xueqi/ | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images The talks, held at JPMorgan Chase headquarters, were intended to lay the groundwork for the Trump-Xi summit later this week. Working-level discussions are continuing as the two sides try to lock down whatever can be agreed before the leaders meet. On paper, the immediate deliverables were relatively modest. In practice, the timing is anything but. The two sides agreed to establish a U.S.-China AI dialogue, with Washington proposing a notification mechanism for AI incidents serious enough to reach the national-security level. Bessent framed the concept as an effort to move the world's two leading AI powers from opacity toward greater transparency and establish some common understanding of threats. As we noted Friday, artificial intelligence was already emerging as one of the summit's most consequential issues, sitting alongside trade, semiconductors, Taiwan and rare earths. The two governments also moved to operationalize the previously proposed Board of Trade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said negotiators are looking for baskets of "non-sensitive" goods that could potentially be treated separately from future trade restrictions. Washington is considering lower-tech Chinese consumer goods, while Beijing is looking at U.S. energy, agricultural products and potentially medical devices. There was no announced breakthrough, however, on some of the much larger outstanding disputes, including Chinese rare-earth flows, additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods or Boeing aircraft. Advanced AI-chip export restrictions were also not part of Sunday's AI discussion. Perhaps more revealing was how little Beijing itself said about AI. Xinhua described the talks as "candid, in-depth and constructive" before relegating the subject to the final sentence of its brief readout: "They also held dialogues on AI-related issues." Chinese state media Xinhua has a very brief report on the Bessent and He Lifeng meeting in New York. AI only mentioned in last line: “They also held dialogues on AI-related issues.” pic.twitter.com/HsUQmdujJ3 — Kyle Chan (@kyleichan) September 21, 2026 But Xi is also heading to Washington against a considerably different geopolitical backdrop than the one surrounding Trump's May visit to Beijing. For starters, two of China's most attractive sources of discounted crude have been sharply constrained. Venezuela had become an important supplier of cheap heavy crude to Chinese refiners, but those flows fell dramatically after Washington's intervention in the country's oil trade earlier this year. As we noted at the time, Chinese refiners initially compensated by increasing purchases of heavily discounted Iranian barrels. Meanwhile, the renewed U.S. campaign against Iran's oil exports disrupted shipments to Asia and left tens of millions of barrels in transit or floating storage. As we reported in July, roughly 63 million barrels of Iranian crude were at one point either moving or idling aboard tankers as sanctions pressure intensified. That does not mean China is running out of oil. Beijing accumulated large inventories and can source replacement barrels elsewhere, but the combination of reduced Venezuelan flows and disrupted Iranian supply has diminished some of the cheap-energy advantage Chinese refiners previously enjoyed. Russia can fill part of that gap, but its own energy infrastructure remains under pressure from Ukrainian long-range attacks on refineries, export terminals and storage facilities. Earlier this month, Goldman estimated that the attacks had taken roughly 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity offline during August and early September. China has also encountered setbacks around another strategic chokepoint. Panama's Supreme Court voided Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison's concessions to operate the Balboa and Cristobal ports at opposite ends of the Panama Canal. As we noted in January, the ruling stripped the legal basis from a China-linked operator at two port facilities adjoining one of the world's most important shipping routes. Then there is Greenland. Washington announced Friday that it had reached a security agreement intended to guarantee a long-term U.S. role on the island while preventing Russia, China and other non-NATO countries from establishing military bases there. The arrangement would strengthen the U.S. position in an Arctic region that both Washington and Beijing increasingly view as strategically important. On Monday, Denmark confirmed that the Trump-Greenland deal would boost arctic security.  The political landscape across parts of Latin America has shifted as well. Reuters described Colombia's June election of Abelardo De La Espriella as part of a broader regional movement to the right that has also included Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama and Peru. Brazil is now the major unresolved contest. As we noted last week, Polymarket pricing recently moved in favor of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Prediction-market prices are not opinion polls, however, and Monday's BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showed Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in a hypothetical runoff, within the survey's margin of error. Markets, meanwhile, entered the weekend already showing signs of pressure. According to Newsquawk, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday 6.5bps higher at 5.004%, while the two-year rose 7.5bps to 4.745%, producing a modest bear flattening of the curve. Yet Xi is hardly arriving in Washington without leverage of his own. China still controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and more than 85% of refining capacity, leaving Beijing with substantial influence over supply chains critical to U.S. autos, semiconductors, aerospace and defense. As we noted this weekend, disrupted Chinese yttrium shipments alone have already forced Western aerospace, energy and semiconductor companies to scramble for alternatives. Beijing also retains enormous manufacturing capacity, large accumulated energy inventories and considerable purchasing power over everything from American agricultural commodities to aircraft. In other words, Thursday's summit is taking shape less as a grand reconciliation than an attempt by two heavily intertwined rivals to fence off portions of the relationship before the next confrontation. Washington arrives with greater influence over Venezuelan oil flows, intensified pressure on Iran's exports, a strengthened strategic position around Greenland and reduced China-linked influence around the Panama Canal, while the political map across portions of Latin America has changed considerably. Beijing arrives with its own formidable counters: dominant critical-mineral supply chains, a resilient manufacturing and export base, substantial energy reserves and enormous leverage as a buyer of U.S. goods. Oh, and let's not forget - open-weight AI models that have completely upended the frontier AI model.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 12:00

— Denmark Confirms Trump-Greenland Deal Would Boost Arctic Security

 

at 9/21/26 9:40am

Denmark Confirms Trump-Greenland Deal Would Boost Arctic Security Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, A top Danish official said on Sept. 19 that an agreement announced by U.S. President Donald Trump for the United States to handle security for Greenland would lead to a better outcome in the region. Both Denmark and Greenland, an autonomous island that is Danish territory, expressed hope that the deal would end any uncertainty regarding the island's security. On Sept. 19, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said that the deal between Denmark, Greenland, and the United States could be signed this week, which comes as foreign delegations head to New York City for the U.N. General Assembly. "Next week could be a good week - for Greenland, Denmark, and the USA alike," he said in a statement posted to social media. "A time of uncertainty will hopefully give way to a binding agreement that strengthens security in the Arctic and the North Atlantic - and thereby our shared security within NATO and Europe - while respecting the Kingdom's red lines. "This is important at a time when the security landscape, including in the Arctic, has changed." Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said in a statement last week that the proposed deal "recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our Kingdom and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination." Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen indicated that the deal would provide a favorable outcome for Greenland's residents. "[It is] an agreement that at the same time recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination," Frederiksen said in a statement. Trump on Sept. 18 wrote on Truth Social that the United States, under the deal, would be responsible for security over Greenland, an Arctic island in the North Atlantic, on a permanent basis. "At my direction, we worked with representatives of Denmark and Greenland to guarantee that the United States will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America," Trump said. As part of the deal, no U.S. adversary such as China or Russia would be able to have a base in Greenland, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Fox News interview. Trump also wrote that the United States will now start the process of implementing a military presence around Greenland and will work with residents of the island on its development. Previous U.S. presidents were aware of Greenland's strategic importance, he added. With his return to the White House in 2025, Trump initially called on Denmark to sell the island to the United States and said Greenland is crucial to U.S. security, which prompted criticism from European Union leaders and individual nations. At one point, Trump warned that Denmark could face a 25 percent import tax on goods unless it ceded the island to U.S. control. Denmark and Greenland repeatedly stated that the island is not for sale, even as Trump said the island is needed to deal with military threats posed by Russia and China. Last March, Vice President JD Vance visited American troops at the Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, where he argued that Denmark was failing to protect and invest in the island amid Russian and Chinese threats. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 11:40

— US Shipment Of F-35s Goes MIA In Shocking Detour To Hong Kong

 

at 9/21/26 9:05am

US Shipment Of F-35s Goes MIA In Shocking Detour To Hong Kong Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA, Lawmakers and the Trump administration are investigating the odd disappearance of a U.S.-bound shipment of F-35 fighter jet components from Australia, which were originally meant to be repaired on U.S. soil, according to new reporting by Politico. The report, published Friday and citing three anonymous sources, noted that an intermediary was transporting the equipment on behalf of American defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin through the Pacific Ocean before it was diverted to Hong Kong. The three unnamed sources suggested that neither the Pentagon nor Lockheed Martin knows why the shipment ended up in Hong Kong. The current whereabouts of the components remain unknown, triggering concerns over whether China may have gotten its hands on them. China, which has tightened its control of Hong Kong in recent years, has long sought to gather intelligence on the F-35 program. The missing components were part of the F-35 Lightning II, which Lockheed Martin describes on its website as the "most lethal, survivable, and connected fighter aircraft" for America and its allies. Specifically, among the missing items is an F-35 canopy, a major part of the fighter jet that contains sensitive technology, according to Politico. ??SCOOP: A shipment of F-35 fighter jet parts was rerouted to Hong Kong this summer - then vanished. Congress and DOD are investigating, amid the possibility that China may now have access to the highly-classified program. W/ @audrey_decker9https://t.co/u5Ip309Ke9 — Mark Satter (@marksatter) September 18, 2026 The U.S. Government Accountability Office has called the F-35 the "most costly weapon system" in the U.S. military, and the Pentagon has already spent between $200 billion and $250 billion on the program, according to estimates. The State Department and the Pentagon reportedly briefed lawmakers on the matter in June, the report added. In a statement, the Pentagon office responsible for the F-35 jets said it was "aware of a shipment issue of unserviceable F-35 Lightning II components." The military office said an investigation is underway to retrieve the missing components and determine what happened. Headline USA reached out to the office for further clarification but did not receive a response in time for publication. Lockheed Martin, for its part, declined to provide information on the matter, citing security reasons, Politico noted. "Our teams handle every shipment with the utmost diligence and safeguards to ensure the integrity of the F-35 program and the security of our allied partners," the company said. We asked an F-35 pilot to describe the jet in one word. His answer: sneaky. ? But behind that word is a lot of 5th Gen capability: stealth, advanced sensors and the information pilots need to stay ahead when the mission demands it. pic.twitter.com/QrmfBunlwt — F-35 Lightning II (@thef35) July 9, 2026 Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 11:05

— Key Events This Week: Trump-Xi Meeting, Fed Speakers, PMIs And Durables

 

at 9/21/26 8:55am

Key Events This Week: Trump-Xi Meeting, Fed Speakers, PMIs And Durables After an extremely busy week for central bank decisions, the week ahead brings a mix of economic data, even more central bank decisions, lots of Fed speak, and geopolitical events. The first read of the September PMIs across the major economies on Wednesday should provide the most timely update on global growth momentum, while investors will also be watching policy decisions from the Norges Bank, Riksbank and SNB on Thursday with their hike probabilities according to futures at 62%, 21% and 5% respectively, according to Deutsche Bank. Attention will also turn to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday which will likely garner a lot of headlines. We also have opening week of the UN General Assembly debate in New York. In the US, the focus will increasingly shift towards next Friday’s payrolls report, which will be the most important data release before the October FOMC meeting. Ahead of that, markets will be very keen to hear from a heavy schedule of Fed speakers throughout the week. These comments will frame last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected rate increase but signalled a more hawkish policy outlook. The updated projections showed a strong majority of officials anticipating further tightening, while Chair Warsh emphasized that the Committee still sees limited evidence that policy is meaningfully restrictive.   Fed communication begins today with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Tomorrow, investors receive the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. On the policy front, Fed Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson are due to speak. Williams is viewed as one of the four officials who are still expected to see the Fed easing by the end of next year, so any hints on that outlook will be closely scrutinized.   Wednesday’s main event will be the September flash PMIs. Economists expect the US manufacturing PMI to edge down to 53.6 from 53.9, while the services gauge is forecast to ease slightly to 55.9 from 56.5. Given the recent focus on AI-related investment and broader capex trends, these surveys will be watched closely for signs that business activity remains resilient. Fed Governor Barr is also due to speak. Investors will also be watching Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement ahead of Thursday's 20-30yr operation, particularly after last month's decision to at least double the size of long-end buybacks.   Thursday sees August new home sales and initial jobless claims. Last week continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024. Fed speakers include Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, offering further opportunities for markets to assess where officials stand after last week’s hawkish meeting. Friday’s US durable goods report will be particularly important from a growth perspective. Our economists expect headline orders to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both expected to increase by 1.1%. The data should provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether the recent strength in business investment is being sustained. Williams and Hammack are also due to speak on Friday.   Here is a day-by-day calendar, courtesy of DB Day-by-day calendar of events Monday September 21 Data: US August Chicago Fed national activity index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB’s Kazimir and Dolenc speak, BoC’s Macklem speaks Tuesday September 22 Data: US September Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, UK August public finances, Eurozone September consumer confidence Central banks: Fed's Williams, Jefferson and Barkin speak, ECB's Nagel and Sleijpen speak Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn) Other: General debate of the UN’s General Assembly in New York (until September 28) Wednesday September 23 Data: US, UK, Germany, France and Eurozone September PMIs Central banks: Fed's Barr speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Zigman and Lane speak Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn) Other: OECD’s interim economic outlook Thursday September 24 Data: US August new home sales, September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Q2 current account balance, initial jobless claims, Japan September PMIs, Germany September Ifo survey, France September consumer confidence, business confidence, EU27 August new car registrations, Canada July retail sales, Australia labour force survey Central banks: Central bank decisions in Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, Fed's Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson speak, ECB’s economic bulletin, BoE’s Dhingra, Breeden and Lombardelli speak Earnings: Costco Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn) Other: US President Trump and China’s President Xi meeting in the US Friday September 25 Data: US August durable goods orders, September Kansas City Fed services activity, UK September GfK consumer confidence, Germany October GfK consumer confidence, Eurozone August M3 Central banks: Fed's Williams and Hammack speak, ECB's Vujcic speaks Looking at just the US, The key economic data release this week is the durable goods report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Barr on Wednesday, President Paulson on Thursday, President Hammack on Thursday and Friday, and President Williams on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Monday, September 21  There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 06:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak about monetary policy at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 28, Goolsbee said, “As I look at the inflation data, we were above the target, then it was going the wrong way, then we got a couple of months of more benign readings but that certainly doesn’t feel like we’re out of the woods.” Tuesday, September 22  There are no major economic data releases scheduled.  10:05 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks during the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference. Speech text is expected. On September 2, Williams explained that “we are neither seeing second-round effects, nor unusual broadening of the effects of higher energy prices, and we are seeing well anchored inflation expectations,” though his comments came prior to September’s warmer CPI print. 10:20 AM Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference on discount window modernization and Treasury market functioning. Speech text is expected. 01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech to the CFA Society Baltimore. Speech text and Q&A are expected. Wednesday, September 23  09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September preliminary (consensus 53.5, last 53.9); S&P Global US services PMI, September preliminary (consensus 56.0, last 56.5) 10:05 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on housing at the Chicago Fed Community Development Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On September 1, Barr said, “A series of shocks—from tariffs and then the conflict in the Middle East, as well as from the rapid AI buildout—has pushed us off course. And core non-housing services inflation remains elevated.” He also added that “with inflation above target for a protracted period, there is a risk of broader price pressures taking hold, a risk I am watching closely.” Thursday, September 24  04:10 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion during the London Macro Policy Forum. Q&A is expected. 08:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat at The Economic Club of Washington D.C. Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 19 (GS 200k, consensus 200k, last 196k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 12 (consensus 1,750k, last 1,730k) 08:50 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Speech text is expected. On September 4, Hammack stated, “Both the hard data and the anecdotes are telling me the same thing: policy is not restrictive. Inflation is too high—and the longer it stays above our objective, the harder it will be to bring it back down…Right now, what I’m hearing is that it is time to act.” 10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.3%, last -10.5%) 10:10 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Tenth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. Speech text is expected. On August 4, Paulson explained that she sees “two plausible scenarios for how current policy is affecting inflation.” One is that “the current setting of the federal funds rate is mildly restrictive and this will bring inflation to 2 percent in an acceptable time frame” and the other is that “current policy is not restrictive enough to deliver our target rate of 2 percent inflation.” Friday, September 25  05:15 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President Williams will participate in a policy panel during the 6th Monetary Economics Conference in Oxford, UK. Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August preliminary (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.3%, last +1.1%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last flat); Core capital goods shipments, August preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.2%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 1.0% in the preliminary August report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.5% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting continued strength in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys in August—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September final (GS 47.5, consensus 47.5, last 47.8): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, September final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%) 2:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a policy panel discussion at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Q&A is expected. Source: DB, Goldman Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:55

— Another Tanker Struck In Strait Of Hormuz As Iran's President Heads To NY

 

at 9/21/26 8:45am

Another Tanker Struck In Strait Of Hormuz As Iran's President Heads To NY Just as the Iranian delegation of President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to fly to New York City for this week's UN General Assembly, where it's expected that the Iranians could be engaged in some sideline diplomacy with the White House, another tanker incident has unfolded off in the Persian Gulf area. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency is reporting Monday that an oil tanker has been "struck by an unknown projectile" while on an inbound transit route in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result of the attack under as yet unknown circumstances two crew members suffered "minor injuries". But the vessel is reportedly in good enough shape to continue on to its next port of call. It may have been the result of a small drone, given what appears to only be light damage or an incident not significant enough to put the vessel out of commission. Tehran is seeking to keep its leverage and 'control' over the vital energy transit waterway. "Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO," the reiterated.  But oil prices have slid to their lowest in 11 days amid optimism that Iran's Pezeshkian could hold talks with US officials, or else could engage in renewed diplomacy via mediators on the UN sidelines. Trump in a Sunday Fox News interview actually indicated openness to a meeting with Pezeshkian, in a first of the war. Trump was asked about the high level UN meeting and surprisingly he went so far as to say he would "probably be open" to meeting with the Iranian president. Still, this was all coupled with threats. In Trump's mind, there seem to be three options on the table, or as he put it--"to obliterate Iran, letting it rot economically or reach a deal." Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, has observed, "It seems that a degree of risk premium is being removed from oil prices on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week." Meanwhile, a regional US commander has claimed that oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level in six months. This is being hailed as a sign that US naval protection and mine-clearing efforts could finally be paying off. Iran has meanwhile over the weekend once again warned US allies in the region that they'll be considered "complicit" if the US resumes it military assault on the Islamic Republic. The Iranian military HQ stated that "any mistakes will result in painful attacks." Iran’s President Will Enter the U.S. DURING the War for the UN Meeting This is VERY RISKY President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to New York in the coming days to address the UN General Assembly and meet world leaders. The security situation is extraordinary. Dr.… pic.twitter.com/AtY24KDYEd — Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) September 20, 2026 Tehran further indicated Sunday that it is still awaiting Trump's response to its conditions for ending the war. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed to AFP that Iran's demands were sent to Washington via the Qataris. The US could decide to convey its counter offer while the Pezeshkian delegation is in town. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:45

— Is Trump Secretly Pushing For A Deal When Iran's President Arrives In NY

 

at 9/21/26 8:30am

Is Trump Secretly Pushing For A Deal When Iran's President Arrives In NY By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank  All The News That Is Not Fit To Price Political and geopolitical developments again stole the headlines over the weekend, with attendant market implications. Active European gasoil futures are lower this morning despite news that Ukraine had launched a “massive” drone attack against Moscow that had damaged a major refinery. Brent crude oil prices are also lower despite news that Donald Trump had cut short a trip to Camp David to return to Washington, reports that Iran had activated its highest military readiness alert amid claims that the US is preparing to resume attacks, Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital Riyadh, and Pentagon Pizza Report activity suggestive of something afoot. Asian stocks are broadly higher this morning and US equity index futures are pointing towards a positive open. President Trump announced late last week that Denmark and the United States had struck a deal to provide the US with military access to the Greenland in perpetuity. Trump said that the agreement bars non-NATO countries from establishing bases and gives the US the right to refuse third party nations from holding economic interests in the territory. Aside from its strategic value adjacent to the Arctic and lying between the United States and hypothetical ballistic missile paths from Russia, various media outlets have also pointed towards Greenland’s deposits of rare earth minerals as an important factor in the US’s interest in the territory. Trump said that the US would commence the work of beefing up its military presence in Greenland immediately.  That was far from being the only major development on transatlantic security over the weekend. Social media was teeming with speculation over Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call French party leaders and presidential hopefuls to a closed-door briefing at the Elysee regarding the worsening international security situation. Attendees were reportedly briefed by senior intelligence officials on intensifying threats from Russian hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage, drone strikes, assassinations and grey-zone tactics. Macron warned that the threat has expanded from state and military targets and could now result in civilian casualties.  Concurrently, Polish PM Donald Tusk warned citizens that there are difficult times ahead and said that Russia is planning further drone and missile attacks on NATO territory. Meanwhile, Britain’s BBC asks the question “War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?” Perhaps a more interesting question is at what point are grey zone attacks sufficient for NATO’s article 5 to be invoked? And what would actually happen if it was?  The answer to that question suddenly seems less clear after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that he would not allow Slovakia to be pulled into a military conflict with Russia because of NATO’s collective defence clause. Such an ‘all the benefits, none of the costs’ approach does nothing to dispel American criticisms of a mentality of free-riding on the continent and again highlights the lack of political cohesion at the supranational level, even as Canada under Mark Carney seeks deeper trade and security ties with a European bloc that still hasn’t seen fit to fully ratify the CETA trade agreement. Elsewhere in Europe the far-right AfD followed up its recent win in Saxony-Anhalt by recording a strong result in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania elections to finish with the highest vote share (38.2%), just ahead of the left-wing SPD (35.5%), while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU slumped to just 4.9% of the vote – its worst result in any state election since the formation of the Federal Republic of Germany. That figure is low enough to see the CDU ejected from the state parliament altogether. Merz called the result a “disaster”.  While the far right was making ground, so was the far left. The Die Linke party won 25.7% of the vote to finish first in the Berlin elections. Nevertheless, a deal between other parties may still see it barred from capturing the Berlin mayoralty, which would likely stymie efforts to enact its program of nationalizing privately owned property in a bid to lower rents. Despite the poor electoral results, Chancellor Merz is saying that he will stay on in an effort to deliver on a program of economic and security reforms that he said could be “the antidote to authoritarianism”. US ten-year treasury yields closed 6.5bps higher on Friday while two-year yields rose by almost 8bps to see a modest bear flattening of the curve. That’s as Scott Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier Hi Lifeng on Sunday ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington later this week. Discussions reportedly centerd around trade, artificial intelligence and rare earths.  Further discussions will be held later today to lay the groundwork for Trump-Xi summit which will now occur in the context of China having been cut off from cheap oil supplies from Venezuela and Iran, having energy supplies from Russia pressured by Ukrainian strikes, chased out of the Panama Canal, seeing its Arctic ambitions challenged by an increased US presence in Greenland, and watching sympathetic governments in South America fall like dominoes to US-aligned right wing challengers. On the latter, Polymarket now has Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 62-41 for the October 5th Presidential election. News over the weekend that Saudi Arabia had quit China’s mBridge digital currency program that US critics have said subverts the role of the US dollar in the global monetary system coincided with news that the US State Department had approved the sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom. Saudi leaving the Chinese payments initiative may be just as strong a signal as the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ about the US’ determination to play a much more aggressive brand of the Great Game to secure its own enduring interests.  With Iranian President Pezeshkian set to arrive in New York for the UN General Assembly this week – and Donald Trump expressing willingness to meet with him – rumors of Gulf states preparing to sign on to the Abraham Accords continue to swirl. Could we see a deal done? Or could all the news that the market has not seen fit to price suddenly show up in the price action? Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:30

— Media TV Pool Won't Cover Trump As CNN, MS NOW, Politico To Sue Over White House Ban

 

at 9/21/26 8:15am

Media TV Pool Won't Cover Trump As CNN, MS NOW, Politico To Sue Over White House Ban CNN, MS NOW and Politico notified the federal government on Monday that they intend to sue the Trump administration to get their White House credentials back, three days after the president announced from Truth Social that he was barring all three from the building. President Donald J. Trump makes an announcement on health care in the Oval Office at the White House in DC on Sept. 18. (Evan Vucci, Reuters) The outlets have retained First Amendment lawyer Ted Boutrous, who beat the administration on this exact question in 2018, and are seeking emergency relief in federal district court in Washington. The Ban Trump announced the ban on Friday, writing that outlets "shouldn't be able to constantly write or report FICTION and LIES when they're covering the President." He later added that "there's something wrong with a country that can allow people to write purposely negative stuff." The order was enforced at the White House gates the next morning. On Saturday, journalists arriving to cover the administration were stopped by the Secret Service at the West Wing security checkpoints. CNN's Betsy Klein, MS NOW's Akayla Gardner and Politico's Cheyenne Haslett were turned away; an agent told Gardner her press pass had been deactivated. By Monday, CNN was removed from pooled coverage duties - the rotating assignment under which one network's crew feeds video to every other outlet - and CNN and MS NOW were blocked from using their television equipment and camera positions on the grounds.  On the pool itself: Fox News Washington bureau chief Bryan Boughton, who chairs the TV pool (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, Fox rotate), emailed pool subscribers that there would be “no replacement pool put in place” after the White House blocked CNN from its assigned duties. The other major networks declined to fill in. Essentially collective action by the networks, including Fox. https://t.co/h78fUx200J pic.twitter.com/20CHMpdTw3 — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 18, 2026 Jacqui Heinrich, Fox News senior White House correspondent and current White House Correspondents’ Association president, issued the WHCA statement standing “in defense of our colleagues at CNN, MS NOW, and Politico who are being singled out for doing their jobs.” She said the action violates the First Amendment, that protections “do not depend on whether the president likes a news organization’s coverage,” and called for immediate restoration of access. She also discussed it on Fox News Sunday. The Filing In a joint statement, the three outlets said: "Without notice or process, the White House revoked our journalists' credentials because it objected to our reporting." They called the ban "a more direct assault on the First Amendment" than anything that preceded it, and "a more blatant violation of our most fundamental constitutional principles." All three said they would keep covering the administration either way. Politico global editor-in-chief Jonathan Greenberger told staff in a memo that the outlet would "vigorously defend our First Amendment rights." What The Courts Have Already Said The administration has lost this argument twice before. In 2018 the White House pulled the hard pass of CNN's Jim Acosta after a hostile press conference. Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, ordered it restored within days, finding the network likely to win on Fifth Amendment due process - the White House had given Acosta no notice and no chance to respond. In 2025 the administration barred the Associated Press from the Oval Office and Air Force One after the wire service declined to adopt "Gulf of America." A district judge ordered full access restored. An appeals court then let the administration keep the AP out of small, restricted spaces, ruling only that it could not bar reporters from areas "generally open to the press," such as the briefing room. Neither case went as far as this one. Acosta was one reporter and the AP kept its briefing-room seat. Three outlets barred from the entire complex is a larger question than any court has answered. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:15

— Warner Bros, Paramount Jump After Settling Lawsuits With California And Other States

 

at 9/21/26 8:00am

Warner Bros, Paramount Jump After Settling Lawsuits With California And Other States Update: (10:05am ET). Well, that was fast: following a Friday leak that a settlement was imminent, moments ago, Bloomberg reported that Paramount Skydance has reached a settlement with California and other states suing to block its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing a person familiar with the matter. Settlement talks came to fruition over the weekend after four states that had opposed terms of a deal outlined with California conceded. The settlement, which is expected to be announced later today, paves the way for one of the largest mergers in Hollywood history. Lawyers for the states worked all night on the agreement, the person said. Four states — Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut and Minnesota — had been holdouts on a possible settlement, but ultimately concluded the expense of the legal battle was not justifiable without California at the helm, the person said. The states that held out longer did succeed over the past week in securing independent editorial boards for CBS and CNN as part of the deal, the person said. The terms, summarized below, are said to include a financial penalty if the company fails to make good on a promise to distribute 30 films per year in theaters. If the final terms are approved, the agreement would spare Paramount from having to pay late fees to Warner Bros. of $7 million a day, which were to begin on Oct. 1. * * * Earlier Shares of Warner Bros. (WBD) are up 7% and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) gains 6% after the WSJ reported Friday that Paramount was in advanced settlement talks with the California AG Rob Bonta aimed at settling the California-led antitrust lawsuit that would block the company's proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery. According to the report the two sides met over the weekend and discussed several potential concessions including $1.5bn investment by Paramount for production in California Maintain both studio lots & stay in California Potential sale of cable channels and creation of a board to maintain CNN’s editorial independence Financial penalties for producing less than 30 films per year.  Bonta, a consortium of 12 states, and the Writers Guild of America, sued to block Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. in July. Since then, the two sides have been locked in discussions to resolve the matter. The suing states fear further consolidation in the entertainment industry would reduce jobs and competition. Meanwhile, Paramount, led by CEO David Ellison, argues the combination will create a company large enough to successfully compete with the tech giants that have encroached on the entertainment industry. The merger would bring the two eponymous Hollywood studios and under one roof, alongside the Paramount Plus and HBO Max streaming services and a slew of cable channels such as CNN, MTV, and TBS, among others. One of the proposals in the negotiations includes establishing an oversight board to ensure CNN retains editorial independence. Other possibilities include the sale of certain cable channels, according to IBD Another proposal would impose, according to Bloomberg, a $30 million fine on Paramount for each film that falls short of its previously pledged goal of releasing 30 movies per year in theaters. Ellison and Paramount originally made the pledge to get theater operators to support the merger. However, Bonta had been wary of Paramount's promise because he considered it difficult to enforce. The fine would seem to address that. Under the terms of the discussions, Paramount would also be forced to sell its stake in the studio Miramax, according to The Wall Street Journal. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:00

— Bitcoin Soars Above $85k (Jan Highs) As Saylor Sees Clarity Act Collapse 'A Win'

 

at 9/21/26 7:30am

Bitcoin Soars Above $85k (Jan Highs) As Saylor Sees Clarity Act Collapse 'A Win' Bitcoin has surged above $85,000 this morning for the first time since late-January... The rally comes alongside advances in stocks and bonds, as falling oil prices and optimism ahead of a summit between US President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are buoying markets more broadly. Rival digital assets have also bounced. Ether, the second-largest token, has spiked up to almost $2750, while other cryptocurrencies including XRP, Solana and Monero also posted gains... Bitcoin’s gains build upon a recovery that began late last week, when crypto absorbed the failure of the landmark Clarity Act (up around 14% since) to establish a clearer understanding of industry regulation as well the Fed's first interest-rate increase in more than three years. “Financial markets have rediscovered a risk-on frame of mind after being consumed with worry about government bond yields, debt piles and the prospect of a return to tighter policy at the world’s most powerful central bank,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investing and trading platform IG. A green light on Thursday from the Securities and Exchange Commission for digital versions of securities to start trading in the US helped to brighten the mood.  Interestingly, Bitcoin treasury founder and pioneer Michael Saylor has said that the blockage of the Clarity Act is actually good for the digital asset space.  Writing on X on Saturday, the Strategy founder and chair said that legislation can make restrictions permanent just as easily as rights.  The Digital Assets industry is better off moving forward with supportive rules from the SEC, CFTC, Treasury, and banking regulators than accepting the restrictions in the final CLARITY compromise. We have an administration willing to modernize financial markets. We should use the next two years to put better financial products into people’s hands. Our safest path forward is to create products that delight customers and deploy them broadly. Lower costs, easier access, useful services, and greater control over money give people a direct interest in preserving innovation. The strongest constituency we can build is a public that benefits from what we create. Legal certainty matters. So does the freedom to compete. A law can make a restriction durable just as easily as it can make a right durable. Before celebrating permanence, we should examine what we are making permanent. The September CLARITY compromise would have restricted covered providers from paying customers simply for holding payment stablecoins, while allowing qualifying activity rewards. It also would have directed Treasury to restrict certain rewards upon specified findings of substantial, detrimental deposit transfers from community banks. Protecting a bank from a liquidity crisis and protecting it from a better competitor are different objectives. Financial stability requires sound oversight. Competition requires that customers be free to choose a better service. When technology reduces the cost of delivering financial services, consumers should share in the savings. Read more here... Additionally, Saylor’s Strategy purchased Bitcoin for the first time in three weeks, acquiring $75.7 million of the original cryptocurrency after seeking to rebuild investor confidence by reshaping its balance sheet and building out reserves. The original Bitcoin treasury company - co-founded and run by Saylor - also repurchased $174 million of its STRC perpetual preferred shares, part of its effort to lift the price above par so that the securities can be used again to finance future Bitcoin purchases. Cash was used to fund both transactions, Strategy said in a filing on Monday. The preferred trade just below $99. Strategy is now (846,002) just 1363 BTC below its all time high holdings from June 22 when it was 847,365... “The crypto market capitalization has risen to $2.8T, its highest level since the end of January this year,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, the FxPro chief market analyst. “Although Friday’s rally was followed by increased selling pressure, buyers have once again been dominating the cryptocurrency market since Sunday.” Bloomberg reports that bitcoin open interest on the options trading platform Deribit was heavily dominated by calls, signaling bullish sentiment. The platform showed more than 272,000 contracts for the right to buy the token compared with over 154,000 for puts, or the right to sell. “Bitcoin options market is positioned to capture the upside,” said Pratik Kala, a portfolio manager at digital-asset hedge fund Apollo Crypto. “People are repositioning from downside protection to wanting to capture the upside.” But not all traders are convinced the momentum can last given the difficult macroeconomic headwinds, with crude oil still above $100 a barrel and US Treasury yields elevated. Bitcoin is well off its 2026 high of over $97,000 in mid-January, and even further from its October record. Retail enthusiasm has also proven hard to rekindle as artificial intelligence stocks and other AI-linked trades compete for the same pool of speculative capital. “For this week, there aren’t any big catalysts to watch out for per se, but any hawkish or dovish remarks by Fed officials could impact the market,” said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of BTSE.  Finally, we note that ETF inflows have re-accelerated... Various investor cohorts also returned to aggregate profit, including Bitcoin corporate treasuries, holdings of which have a cost basis of around $80,500. Now, price is approaching its cost basis for investors in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Per data by onchain analytics platform Glassnode, this cost basis currently sits at $85,638... In a departure from the norm, the largest Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), did not account for the lion’s share of inflows. Instead, most investors piled into Fidelity Investments’ Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which accounted for $310 million of the total. In their analysis of recent market developments, the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant discussed this change in ETF netflow composition.  “The key change is therefore not simply positive ETF activity, but a clear redistribution of flow leadership: IBIT went from dominating FBTC by nearly six times on September 3 to FBTC recording almost three times IBIT’s holdings netflow on September 18,” CryptoQuant stated in a blog post. After reacting positively to the announcement of US bond-market interventions in August, Bitcoin market participants continue to monitor any events surrounding yields. In a report for CME on Sept. 16, Jim Iuorio, CEO of JI Financial Strategies, argued that interventions may represent a liquidity tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto markets. “Perhaps markets viewed these actions as being dollar-negative, pushing money back into dollar hedges like gold and Bitcoin,” he said. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 09:30

— South Korea Gives Almonty's Major Tungsten Mine Final Green Light To Supply The West

 

at 9/21/26 7:15am

South Korea Gives Almonty's Major Tungsten Mine Final Green Light To Supply The West Bloomberg reports that Almonty Industries has secured final administrative approval from South Korean authorities to commercially process tungsten at its Sangdong mine. The approval positions Sangdong to begin supplying major Western customers and accelerate supply chain decoupling from China for the critical industrial metal. As Beijing restricts tungsten exports, the West's looming rearmament cycle adds urgency to securing conflict-free supplies. South Korea granted Almonty inspection certificates last Thursday that authorize commercial operation of Sangdong's processing plant and crushing facilities. The approvals allow Almonty to turn mined ore into saleable tungsten concentrate for domestic customers and, more importantly, for Western buyers struggling to procure supplies amid a year and a half of China choking off global supplies. Much of the Sangdong mine's output already has a buyer. Almonty's long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a member of Austria's Plansee Group, covers more than 90% of Sangdong's Phase I production. A news release in July announced an extension of the agreement to 21 years from first delivery and increased total contracted volume to 4.41 million metric tonne units (MTU), with minimum annual volumes of 210,000 MTU following ramp-up. "With more than 90% of our Phase I production already contracted for 21 years from first delivery, the task in front of us is a simple one: operate the plant safely, ramp it steadily and deliver," CEO Lewis Black wrote in a press release. Almonty noted in the press release, "The certification is the final step in Sangdong's transition from facility construction, trial operation and commissioning to commercial production." Black continued, "The timing is not lost on us. Tungsten prices are at historic highs, China has tightened its grip on the material the Western industrial base depends on, and commencing January 2027, United States defense procurement rules will look all the way back to where the ore was mined." "Sangdong is one of very few assets anywhere that can answer that question with a Western address and the scale to matter," Black added. In its most recent presentation, Almonty describes itself as becoming the leading Western tungsten producer following Sangdong's Phase II expansion and an extension at Portugal's operating Panasqueira mine. Almonty is pursuing that higher-value processing opportunity through Sangdong with an initial annual capacity of 4,000 tons, later expanding to 6,000 tons. Last week, Almonty struck a deal with Rwanda's government, securing a foothold in Africa's largest tungsten-producing nation, while the miner also tapped its Spanish mine waste. These two moves show the fastest way to bring new supplies online, since waiting years for a new mine conflicts with the need to address supply troubles today. In other words, the West doesn't have time, and it needed new supplies yesterday. Almonty shares have pulled back to around $14 after their latest rally stalled near $19. The stock remains roughly 40% below its April peak near $23.5 and has slipped into the $15 - $20 range. In premarket shares are up 3.3%.  Companies that can bring supply online sooner could capture a crucial early market advantage, such as Almonty, as it ramps up tungsten production at its South Korean mine and is now set to export to the West.  Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 09:15

— Trump Pushes Zelensky To Halt Russia Refinery Attacks Amid High Diesel 

 

at 9/21/26 6:45am

Trump Pushes Zelensky To Halt Russia Refinery Attacks Amid High Diesel  President Trump continues to seek to pressure Ukraine's Zelensky to halt long-range drone strikes on Russia's refineries, in a bid to calm rising diesel prices especially while the parallel Strait of Hormuz crisis persists. Financial Times reports Monday that the US president just held a fresh phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart over the matter, where Zelensky was pressed over the strikes as Washington wants "Russian supplies to be able to reach the global market to provide relief" - also as cited in Bloomberg. News of the call broke just before Trump issued the following Truth Social statement early Monday: The Truth Social words seem geared toward deflecting criticism that he's curtailing Ukraine's ability to fight and inflict pain on Russia. Trump says the Kremlin has "lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry" as a result of the war with Ukraine. The president had starting on Sept.13 called on Kiev to de-escalate the oil infrastructure attacks, which have become so frequent as to be happening multiple times a week. Zelensky "has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump told reporters while in Ireland over a week ago. "There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel, because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world." Reuters in a fresh report observes: "Oil prices slid to their lowest in 11 days on Monday as investors ‌hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia." The Iranian president and his delegation have (somewhat surprisingly) been issued visas and are expected to be present in New York City this week. The report continues, "Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $101.75 a barrel at 0859 GMT, down $2.12, or 2%." We noted previously that the IEA indicated US diesel prices surpassed $200 per barrel in early September, which was 94 percent above their pre-war level. Diesel and other similar fuels account for nearly 30 percent of global oil demand. On Sunday we reported Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock - which involved Ukrainian drones pounding Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery, about 16 miles from the Kremlin. The facility has a processing capacity of around 245,000 barrels a day and supplies fuel to the surrounding metro area. Zelensky had then boasted on X, "One of Russia's key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican." Insane video of a Russian air defence system Pantsir being deployed right above Moscows busiest highway right next to an oil refinery. pic.twitter.com/q6XebQV0A6 — WarMonitor???? (@WarMonitor3) September 21, 2026 It seems Trump will have an uphill battle trying to rein him in, especially given that European capitals may at the same time quietly be advising him the opposite. From Kiev's point of view, Washington is seeking to hobble the one aspect of its war strategy that's having a serious impact inside Russia. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:45

— US Futures Rise, Near All-Time High, As Oil, Yields Drop On US-China Diplomacy Optimism

 

at 9/21/26 6:36am

US Futures Rise, Near All-Time High, As Oil, Yields Drop On US-China Diplomacy Optimism US futures are higher driven by Trump / Xi optimism around AI, Middle East, and trade with Middle East kinetic headlines over the weekend reflecting a pause to escalation. Sentiment was lifted by signs of progress on geopolitical issues: it’s a big week for talks, with Trump set for a summit with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday and a possibility of talks with Iran’s president at the UN General Assembly. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.7%, rising to 7,770 and less than 1% from all time highs, as Nasdaq futures gain 1.1%, with tech strength on full display in APAC trade and also leading in premarket US trading with broad-based strength across Semis, Memory, and Mag7. Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with the AI theme boosting Tech / Industrials within Cyclicals. Within Defensives, both healthcare and staples have pockets of strength as today looks like a broad-based rally in both the SPX and within Tech. WTI is below $100, dropping for a fourth day, fuel prices are lower, while bond traders reckon the Fed will succeed in its fight against inflation helping drive bond yields lower as the yield curve bull flattens, as the USD drops to session lows. This is bidding up risk assets with Equities leading. The Fed’s Goolsbee speaks 6.30am with previous speakers Fri / Sun offering a hawkish view which reiterates Warsh’s key points. According to JPM, given the macro and earnings strength, the market may be underpricing the number of hikes through YE27. There is little on today's calendar: we get the Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (est. -0.04) at 8:30am ET. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Meta climbs about 2% after shares in the social media giant sold off on Friday. Tesla +1.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft +0.4%, Apple unchanged. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin trades above $84,000, near an eight-month high. Accenture (ACN) gains 4% after Anthropic partnered with the technology consulting company to test the safety of its advanced artificial intelligence models. Alkermes (ALKS) climbs 8% after announcing positive Phase 1b results for ALKS 7290 in adults With attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Arhaus (ARHS) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the furniture company to buy, writing that it has “newfound optimism on the retailer’s strategy to elevate brand awareness” and improve market share. Candel Therapeutics (CADL) gains 6% after BofA upgraded the biotech company to buy, citing optimism about a prostate cancer treatment. Ciena (CIEN) rises 5% after Evercore ISI raised the recommendation to outperform, citing the way data centers are boosting demand for optical networking equipment. Critical Metals (CRML) soars 24% after President Donald Trump said the he reached an agreement with Denmark over Greenland that would give the US “permanent control over security” of the Arctic island. In April, Critical Metals agreed to acquire European Lithium Ltd., giving it full ownership of a rare earth project in Greenland. Securitize (SECZ) rises 8% after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a recommendation of overweight as it sees the tokenization company benefiting from recent Securities and Exchange Commission guidance. Warner Bros. (WBD) is up 7% and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 6% as the latter is in settlement talks with California officials over its planned acquisition of the former. In other corporate news, settlement talks between Paramount Skydance and California officials over the planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery are said to include a financial penalty if the company fails to make good on a promise to distribute 30 films per year in theaters. Nscale, a developer of AI data centers that counts Nvidia and Microsoft among its partners, filed for an IPO. Novo Nordisk shares fell after the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy outlined its 2030 strategic ambitions, targeting revenue CAGR in line with industry peers. SoftBank is seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever to fund OpenAI investments in OpenAI Global markets are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the weekend. Brent is down about 2% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are parsed, while oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high. The Houthis said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend, while US President Trump reportedly said that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran. One source of potential optimism is the commentary following US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent describing talks as "successful" on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue. For the Trump-Xi meeting - which is Xi’s first trip to the US in three years - trade, AI, critical minerals, industrial capacity, Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East are all on the bingo card. The “feedback from the talks between China and the US is feeding a positive narrative as the week begins,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “That said, for me oil prices remain the key driver.” “The market doesn’t really need any grand bargain,” says Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor, who thinks signs of “amicable agreement to manage tensions” will be enough to support risk appetite. “However, if fresh tariff threats, tech restrictions or hostile commentary resurface, it could quickly revive the trade-war risk aversion,” he adds. For today, oil is also a major risk-on driver. In a sign that US naval protection and mine-clearing efforts in the Strait of Hormuz were paying off, a regional US commander said oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the waterway reached their highest level in six months, which almost helped push Brent below $100. Trump told Fox News he would “probably” be open to meeting his Iranian counterpart on the sidelines of the UN assembly this week. Meanwhile, as BBG notes, the AI debate continues to rumble on, with the narrative to positive over the weekend, despite some news reports of a looming drop in memory prices. South Korea’s chip exports surged nearly 260% year-on-year in the first 20 days of September, to a record $34.1 billion. Accenture shares surged after it was chosen by Anthropic to test the safety of AI models, and SocGen said AI could help it make substantial cost savings. But there’s still a lot of caution. Citi’s CEO said companies are racing to build up their defenses as AI models become more powerful and risk spurring cyber attacks. Today’s Big Take looks at how AI risk is making CIOs nervous. Elsewhere, opposition to data centers continues to mount: Data Center Watch said some 45 projects worth $68 billion were blocked or delayed by local pushback during the second quarter. “AI is clearly becoming the next major area of strategic competition, but the fact that both sides are at least discussing a mechanism for dialogue is constructive,” said Mohit Mirpuri, senior partner at SGMC Capital Pte. “Markets don’t necessarily need Trump and Xi to resolve all their differences on Thursday, they mainly need reassurance that those differences remain manageable and don’t spill back into another trade or technology shock.” And then there is inflation: price pressures continue to show up, with US retail diesel prices topping $6.50 a gallon for the first time, copper holding gains and food shock risks making headlines. Fed’s Kashkari said inflation remains too high and that pressures have broadened beyond the oil-price shock of the Iran war. European shares gain as cooling oil and gas prices ease inflation concerns, while optimism ahead of this week’s China-US summit also lifts sentiment. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.9% with tech outperforming while healthcare falls after Novo Nordisk disappointed investors who were hoping to see more robust sales targets at the company’s capital markets day. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: Kuehne+Nagel shares rise as much as 6% following the freight transportation firm’s collaboration with US tech behemoth Amazon, which will include providing assistance on logistics services and infrastructure for Amazon Web Services. Lundbeck gains as much as 4.6% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the company is potentially on track to turn around its R&D activities, and notes several upcoming key trial readouts. Lotus Bakeries gains as much as 6.2% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the company is potentially on track to turn around its R&D activities, and notes several upcoming key trial readouts Huber+Suhner shares rise as much as 5.6%, recouping the losses booked on Friday after the maker of telecommunication products held its capital markets day. Industrie De Nora shares rise as much as 5.9%, extending a rally after Italy agreed to cover full costs for its Gigafactory project, according to a statement. Novo shares fall as much as 7.7% after the Danish firm outlined its 2030 strategic ambitions at its Capital Markets Day in London. Ayvens shares drop as much as 6.2% after the fleet management company outlined its new 2029 strategic plan. Jefferies said the new targets are “more realistic than ambitious.” VW shares fall as much as 2.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the German carmaker to hold from buy citing a profit warning that offset positives from a restructuring program. Craneware shares fall as much as 25% after the healthcare software company cut its revenue guidance for FY27 amid disruption caused by a cyber security incident. Ipsen drops as much as 7.8% after Amneal Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for its generic version of somatuline. Asian stocks advanced as an extended rally in semiconductor shares and a decline in oil prices supported investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose more than 1%, heading for a fourth straight session of gains. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and MediaTek were the top contributors to the gauge’s increase. South Korea’s Kospi was the best performer in the region. Markets in Japan were shut for a holiday. “Friday’s Wall Street session has aided sentiment in the AI names early, with the US semiconductor index rising close to 3%, led by the memory names as contract prices keep rising,” said Josh Gilbert, lead APAC analyst at Etoro. “Korea and Taiwan carry the most exposure to that, which is why we’ve seen buyers return to Asia, with flows coming back into the region after a run of selling.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up about 23% so far this year. However, the gauge has risen just 0.3% so far in September as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate hike, persistent inflation concerns, elevated bond yields and growing unease over the In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near unchanged. USD/JPY is back on a 157 handle after Friday’s reported rate check. In rates, treasuries trade near session highs in early US session, supported by steeper gains across European bond markets as oil prices slide, leaving Brent crude on track for the longest run of declines since June. Energy prices are easing amid diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and signs cargoes are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury coupon auctions of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes commence Tuesday. US yields are 3bp to 4bp richer across the curve with front-end lagging slightly, flattening 2s10s and 2s5s spreads by ~1.5bp. 10-year is around 4.955% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bp and 3.5bp. In Europe, French bonds outperform, moving the French-German 10-year yield spread back below 100bp; 105bps spread reached Friday was the widest since 2012. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few deals already.  Dealers expect around $40 billion of new issuance this week, possibly including Sysco Corp., which is preparing a roughly $17 billion bond sale. This week’s Treasury note auctions include $69 billion 2-year Tuesday, $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday. are on the decline with the US 10-year borrowing cost down 4bps at 4.96% - note, cash trade was closed overnight due to the Japanese market holiday. Yields in the UK and Germany are also lower, with the pullback in energy outweighing mounting political risks for the latter. French 10-year bonds are outperforming after being trounced on Friday and the OAT-bund yield spread is back below 100 basis points. In commodities, WTI crude futures are down almost 3%, Brent is down more than 2% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are parsed, while oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high. Spot gold is down 0.8%. The crypto rally is extending with Bitcoin up 4.7% and at levels not seen since January.  US economic data slate includes August Chicago Fed national activity index at 8:30 a.m. Fed speaker slate is blank for Monday. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News Oil prices slid to their lowest in 11 days on Monday as investors ‌hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia. Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $101.75 a barrel at 0859 GMT, down $2.12, or 2%. RTRS The Iran war has created a new shortage on the oil market. This time the scarce commodity isn’t just crude—it is the ships that carry it. Drone attacks that shut Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline earlier this month have forced more crude back through the Strait of Hormuz and onto a tanker fleet already stretched thin. WSJ The US and China have agreed to set up an AI dialogue ahead of a high-stakes summit on Thursday in Washington between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had negotiated the creation of an AI dialogue mechanism, which was floated when Trump met Xi in Beijing in May, in talks with Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday. FT China is more than halfway toward its pledge to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans this year, but a commitment to purchase at least another $17 billion of American farm products has largely stalled. BBG OpenAI projects it will burn through almost $280bn by the end of 2030, highlighting its huge long-term funding needs as the AI company pushes for a valuation of more than $1.2tn in fresh investment talks. The company expects negative free cash flow of $278bn over five years from 2026 to 2030 as it invests aggressively to expand its access to computing power. FT Friedrich Merz vowed to stay on as German chancellor after his CDU suffered heavy losses in state elections. The party won just 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, shutting it out of a regional assembly for the first time in the country’s postwar history. BBG SoftBank’s seeking the equivalent of over $11 billion for AI investments in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever, people familiar said. BBG Wall Street banks are expecting the US to borrow up to $1tn over the next year by selling short-term Treasury bills as part of a growing dependence on quick-maturing debt that leaves Washington vulnerable to rising interest rates. FT The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned the central bank cannot ignore repeated and persistent supply shocks, and must respond in a way that may cause economic hardship. BBG Investors are betting on a Fed win the inflation fight, turning bullish on front-end Treasuries. Two-year yields remain well above the central bank’s range, offering scope for the securities to rally if inflation eases or rate hikes are less than priced. BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with cautious gains seen for most of the region ahead of this week's key meetings in the US, including the UN General Assembly and the Trump-Xi summit, while there are also thinned conditions with the closure of Japanese markets through to Wednesday. ASX 200 was uneventful amid mixed M&A related headlines and further RBA rate hike calls, with CBA bringing forward its rate hike call to September from November, while ANZ expects hikes in both September and November. KOSPI outperformed as tech stocks took impetus from the advances in the Nasdaq last Friday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mildly higher ahead of the Trump-Xi summit this week and after US and Chinese officials held talks in New York ahead of the leaders' meeting, with China's top trade negotiator describing the discussions as 'not bad', while state media noted the sides had frank, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, as well as holding dialogue on AI-related issues. Top Asian News Japan's government will work with major machinery manufacturers to collect machine-learning data for physical AI applications such as autonomous robots and assigning unique IDs to factory equipment to enable cross-vendor data aggregation, according to Nikkei. Japan is poised to ease restrictions on regional bank loans for AI and energy projects, Nikkei reported. China's CPC Politburo met to discuss draft documents to be submitted to the Fifth Plenary Session (26th-29th October), with Chinese President Xi presiding. European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.0%) are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the weekend. The Houthis said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend, while US President Trump reportedly said that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran. One source of potential optimism is the commentary following US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent describing talks as "successful" on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Industrials and Basic Resources following closely behind. To the downside is Health Care, with Optimised Personal Care and Energy rounding out the sector laggards. Explaining the underperformance in Health Care is the downbeat reaction in Novo shares (-5%) after they announced their 2030 ambitions. The drugmaker plans to launch over 5 blockbusters by the end of 2030 and targets pipeline sales of over DKK 150bln in 2035. Top European News German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the centre-left SPD is projected as 35.5% of votes and the far-right AfD is expected to get 37.0% of votes, according to exit polls. Merz's conservatives are projected at 20% of votes in the Berlin state election, while the Left Party is seen at 24.5%, SPD is seen at 12%, and AfD is seen at 16% in Berlin. Scope downgraded France’s long-term ratings to 'A+' from 'AA-' and revised the outlook to stable; DBRS affirmed France at 'AA', lowered the French outlook to negative. FX Snapshot: G10s are mixed against a flat USD this morning. The Antipodeans are mildly firmer, benefiting from the risk tone, whilst the Loonie and JPY are the marginal laggards. DXY currently holds within 100.20 to 100.37 range, and towards the highs made post-FOMC last week. Newsflow for the Dollar has been lacking this morning; oil prices are slipping off highs, despite ongoing supply disruptions, as attention turns to the UN General Assembly Council this week, alongside the summit between President Trump and Xi. The current mood between the two is positive; Trump recently suggested that he and Xi get on “very well”, whilst Treasury Sec Bessent suggested they had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI. JPY is a touch lower this morning, giving back some of the strength made last Friday. The Nikkei reported that the BoJ conducted a “rate check” on that Friday, which helped curtail some of JPY pressure seen following the Bank’s dovishly perceived rate decision. This makes evident that the Japanese officials remain ready and active in the market to keep USD/JPY from approaching the 160.00 mark once again. If market expectations of a Fed-BoJ divergence continue to grow, then it may prove to be difficult for Japan to significantly prevent another bout of upside in the pair. Do note that Japan is away on holiday and returns on Thursday; as such, the lower-volume environment could provide a decent opportunity for the MoF to enact some intervention. EUR is essentially flat vs USD, despite political uncertainty from within the region. Firstly, two regional elections were held in Germany over the weekend; the ruling CDU party performed terribly, falling short of the 5% threshold to enter state parliament in one state. There is now mounting pressure on current Chancellor Merz to resign, though he announced that he will stay in office and “fight on”. The state election results point out the issues the German population is currently facing, but for now, it will remain a regional problem. It will likely have little impact on the federal government itself; as such, the EUR is little changed. Fixed Income USTs (+8 ticks) are stronger this morning, benefiting from 1) falling energy prices and 2) markets awaiting the US-China meeting at the White House on Thursday. On the first point, supply disruptions remain, and Trump recently said he is thinking of “blowing up” all of Iran. It seems as if markets are shifting their attention to the UNGA this week, with Trump reportedly set to meet Gulf leaders and then President Xi. There may be growing hopes that a framework agreement/deal can be ironed out; recent reports have noted that Pakistan’s Interior Minister has travelled to Iran. Yields are lower across the curve, with very slight underperformance at the belly. The US 10-year (4.96%) has now slipped below the key 5.00% mark, given the aforementioned energy dynamics. A constructive UNGA mood and/or geopolitical progress could help the 10-year continue to slip to near-term lows, with 4.92% a likely area of support (low from 18 Sep). Gilts (+72 ticks) outperform vs peers, and currently hold towards the upper end of an 85.28 to 85.76 range. UK-specific news flow has been focused on pre-budget speculation around housing and CGT, but with action in UK paper today ultimately driven by energy dynamics. On trade relations, UK PM Burnham is set to meet US President Trump this week. Reports suggest that the talks between the pair will focus on the Middle East, energy costs and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. EGBs dominate the fixed income space this morning. Bunds after the latest state parliamentary elections, and OATs after sovereign updates and the latest fiscal disclosure. However, despite these points, EGBs are firmer with the marked energy pullback providing relief and some caveats/points to look to with reference to Bunds and OATs specifically. For Germany, the Grand Coalition’s CDU had a disaster in the two elections, while their SPD partner fared somewhat better. Within Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU are set to come in below the 5% threshold to enter state parliament, while AfD won with 38.2% but PSD a near second on 35.5%; a point that provides some relief, as there is no appetite to work with AfD, and thus SPD will likely lead a SPD-Green-Die Linke combination of some description in the region. For now, we await the final results of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to confirm if CDU has missed the threshold. Thereafter, we look for signs of more pressure on Chancellor Merz and whether the Grand Coalition may look for an alternative to him, a ‘Kanzlertausch’, given the September regional election outcomes and his personal low approval rating. Turning to OATs, firstly digesting the trend cut to negative from stable at DBRS, due to “the risk of the government failing to address fiscal imbalances is increasing, leading to a continued rise in the government debt ratio over the medium term”. Additionally, Scope cut France to A+ (prev. AA-), primarily due to the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Commodities WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer after initially advancing at the open on weekend escalation, including a Houthi attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu and Trump reportedly saying he was considering “blowing up” Iran. Prices subsequently reversed as the immediate escalation failed to develop further and Trump also signalled openness to meeting Iran’s President. Further, there may be some hopes that the Trump-Xi meeting this week may help simmer down some geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This morning’s picture remains mixed in terms of newsflow: the IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over Hormuz and warned the war “is not over”, while Pakistan’s Interior Minister is heading to Tehran, with conflicting reports over whether the trip involves US-Iran mediation. WTI Nov trades close to the bottom of a USD 93.46-97.22/bbl range, while Brent Dec nearer to the lower end of a USD 96.97-100.22/bbl range. Dutch TTF is sharply softer (-3.8%) alongside the broader pullback in the energy complex within a EUR 76.85-80.55/MWh range. Precious metals are softer as the Dollar remains firm in the face of lower oil prices. Spot gold trades around USD 4,350/oz within a USD 4,342-4,383/oz range, and with the 100 DMA at USD 4,319/oz today. Spot silver similarly trades flat on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 66.40/oz) in a narrow USD 65.73-67.05/oz parameter. Base metals are firmer despite the cautious broader backdrop, extending some of last week’s gains. COMEX copper trades near the upper end of a USD 6.60-6.66/lb range, and 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 14,540.50-14,688.00/t parameter, with the complex supported by the generally positive tone across Chinese markets ahead of the Trump-Xi summit and after constructive US-China trade discussions in New York. Kazakhstan oil shipments to Ust-Luga were recorded at 200k metric tons in August, according to Interfax. French Finance Minister Lescure said France’s strategic oil stocks are full. Naftogaz said ORLEN (PKN PW) will supply up to USD 500mln of petroleum products to Ukraine to stabilise the market and deliver three LNG cargoes in Q1 2027. South Africa's Pretoria is reportedly looking to leverage its role as a platinum supplier to help integrate into the US and China, Semafor reported. Trade/Tariffs US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue and the US suggested a notification system between the two countries. Bessent separately commented that he is likely to meet the Chinese delegation in two months and they discussed extending the trade truce, although no pact was reached, according to FT citing an interview following Bessent's meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng. USTR Greer said they implemented a board of trade, with the US and Chinese teams to continue working on a board of trade agreement, while the board of trade from the Chinese side is likely to include consumer goods and low-tech items. China's top trade negotiator Li said trade talks are ‘not bad’ and that talks will continue on Monday among the working group, while he confirmed that both sides discussed AI along with trade and investment. Chinese state media noted that China and the US conducted frank, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, while they held dialogue on issues related to AI. US and China were reported on Friday to be discussing cutting tariffs on US LNG ahead of Xi's visit, with potential USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cuts, while the visit could bring broader energy and agricultural deals. China reportedly purchases more US soy cargoes ahead of the President Trump-Xi meeting. Indian Trade Minister said a trade agreement with New Zealand will provide duty-free access to New Zealand for 100% of India's exports. Central Banks Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and that price pressures have expanded beyond the oil-price shock from the Iran war and are affecting the broader economy. Geopolitics: Iran US President Donald Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House, while Fox News reporter Yungst said Trump told him during a phone call that "very big things are going to be happening" soon. Furthermore, Trump said his options are ‘wiping out’ the regime, letting it ‘rot economically’ under naval blockade, or striking a deal, according to Fox News and The Telegraph. US President Trump said on Friday that the Iran War will end soon, adding that once the war ends, US gasoline prices will revert to prior levels and could even fall further. US President Trump confirmed on Friday the US is talking to the Houthis, saying they want a deal, while adding "we'll see" on whether to annihilate Iran. US CENTCOM commander Cooper said oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks reached the highest levels in six months. More US troops had reportedly died amid the Iran war than the Pentagon disclosed publicly, according to a report on Friday in the Washington Post. Pakistani Interior Minister travelled to Iran today, IRNA reported. Tasnim later reported that the trip is unrelated to Iran-US matters and will focus on bilateral relations and cooperation, with the report adding that Pakistan is not carrying a message between Iran and the US. Iranian officials conveyed their conditions to mediators for re-engaging in negotiations for ending the war with the US, while the conditions include ending the war on all fronts and the naval blockade, as well as unfreezing Iranian funds and they also want an end to the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemeni Houthis. IRGC spokesman said all of the US' superior technologies pale in comparison to Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities, adding that Tehran are defining the new regime in the region, not America, and the war is not over and continues. The spokesman added that the IRGC has prepared itself for a long-term war and that they have new targets and weapons ready if the US launches a new attack. IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, reported at 07:30 UTC. A tanker conducting an inbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile. Qatar's PM Al-Thani said Gulf states need to cooperate to restore regional stability and help reach a settlement between the US and Iran. It was separately reported that Qatar's Energy Minister said US Treasury Secretary Bessent is "wrong" in saying that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years. Geopolitics: Ukraine Russia's Press Secretary Peskov said there have been no progress in negotiations on Ukraine yet but remains open to further talks, IFX reported. UK Burnham hopes to build bridges with US President Trump at their first meeting and wants to press the case for the US to help Ukraine with air-defence systems. Moscow Oil Refinery was hit during a drone attack that was part of Ukraine's largest barrage this year. Geopolitics: Other US, Denmark and Greenland reached a security agreement that expands the US’s role on the Arctic island to end the row that threatened NATO. North Korea launched two missiles off its eastern coast on Sunday. It was also reported that North Korea rejected an IAEA resolution on its nuclear program and vowed to keep its status as a nuclear-armed state. Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi and US Defence Secretary Hegseth agreed in a phone call to further strengthen security ties. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.04, prior -0.08 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap For 2026 standards, its been a relatively quiet weekend news wise but yesterday saw more, albeit expected, heavy defeats for the ruling CDU in two German state elections with a surge in support for the far right AfD in one and the far left Die Linke in the other. Chancellor Merz called the early results "a disaster" but vowed to press on with reforms. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD won 38.3% of the vote, roughly double its support from the previous election in 2021 and enough to make it the largest party in the state even if a coalition to keep them out of power is likely. The shock was that the CDU didn't even make the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time in the country’s post-World War II history. So this will create huge amounts of political pressure on the Chancellor and raise questions about the reform agenda.   Meanwhile, in Berlin, the Left Party (Die Linke) emerged as the biggest force with 25.3%, ahead of the CDU and Greens. The mainstream parties seem to be caught in a continued pincer movement. On the far-right the AfD continues to gain support on anti-immigration and anti-establishment themes, particularly in eastern Germany, while the Left appears to have capitalised on concerns over housing affordability, living costs and social inequality. For markets, the immediate implication is not a change in national policy, but a further weakening of Germany’s political centre and another reminder that the forces driving political polarisation across Europe remain alive and well. Also over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US, Denmark and Greenland had reached an agreement that would allow a significant expansion of the US military presence on the island, with Trump describing the deal as giving the US “permanent control over security” in Greenland. The agreement falls well short of Trump’s earlier ambitions to acquire Greenland, while Danish and Greenlandic leaders stressed that it explicitly recognises Greenland’s right to self-determination and Danish sovereignty. Taken at face value, if this agreement holds it actually reduces event risk, as the Greenland issue could easily have come back to be a high tension hotspot in the months ahead. Overnight in Asia, equity markets are advancing led by technology shares supported by optimism from US-China trade talks ahead of the much anticipated summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping later this week. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.79%) is outperforming with Japanese markets closed for the three-day Silver Week holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.55%) and the CSI 300 (+0.42%) are all trading moderately higher. S&P 500 (+0.41%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) and Stoxx (+0.55%) futures are all higher. Brent is -2.21% lower at $101.65/bbl which is helping. It's been above $100/bbl again since September 9th, and although US cash Treasury trading hasn't commenced due to the Japanese holiday, US and European bond futures are all notably higher this morning.   Moving on, the week ahead brings a mix of economic data, central bank decisions, lots of Fed speak, and geopolitical events. The first read of the September PMIs across the major economies on Wednesday should provide the most timely update on global growth momentum, while investors will also be watching policy decisions from the Norges Bank, Riksbank and SNB on Thursday with their hike probabilities according to futures at 62%, 21% and 5% respectively. Elsewhere, attention will turn to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday which will likely garner a lot of headlines. Indeed they already have overnight as discussed above. See our Geopolitics team's preview of the summit here. We also have opening week of the UN General Assembly debate in New York.   In the US, the focus will increasingly shift towards next Friday’s payrolls report, which will be the most important data release before the October FOMC meeting. Ahead of that, markets will be very keen to hear from a heavy schedule of Fed speakers throughout the week. These comments will frame last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected rate increase but signalled a more hawkish policy outlook. The updated projections showed a strong majority of officials anticipating further tightening, while Chair Warsh emphasised that the Committee still sees limited evidence that policy is meaningfully restrictive.   Fed communication begins today with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Tomorrow, investors receive the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. On the policy front, Fed Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson are due to speak. Our economists view Williams as one of the four officials who are still expected to see the Fed easing by the end of next year, so any hints on that outlook will be closely scrutinised.   Wednesday’s main event will be the September flash PMIs. Our economists expect the US manufacturing PMI to edge up to 54.0 from 53.9, while the services gauge is forecast to ease slightly to 56.1 from 56.5. Given the recent focus on AI-related investment and broader capex trends, these surveys will be watched closely for signs that business activity remains resilient. Fed Governor Barr is also due to speak. Investors will also be watching Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement ahead of Thursday's 20-30yr operation, particularly after last month's decision to at least double the size of long-end buybacks.   Thursday sees August new home sales and initial jobless claims. Last week continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024. Fed speakers include Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, offering further opportunities for markets to assess where officials stand after last week’s hawkish meeting. Friday’s US durable goods report will be particularly important from a growth perspective. Our economists expect headline orders to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both expected to increase by 1.1%. The data should provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether the recent strength in business investment is being sustained. Williams and Hammack are also due to speak on Friday.   Recapping last week now and it was a story of two halves that left most assets little changed from where they started the week. The first half saw a fresh rise in energy prices that led to renewed fears of stagflation, and we even saw the 10yr Treasury yield close above 5% for the first time since 2007. But on Wednesday, the Fed delivered their first rate hike since 2023, which seems to help ease inflation fears with a delay but the reality was that energy price falls were the more important theme reversing the yield spikes.   Brent crude oil prices were down -0.71% on the week (-0.91% Friday), closing at $103.87/bbl after approaching $110/bbl in the first half of the week. That marked a reversal after a +17.1% jump over the previous two weeks. While oil prices stabilised, sovereign bond yields still extended their rise overall. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield reached an intraday peak of 5.04% last Tuesday, before ending the week at 5.00%, up +2.9bps on the week (+6.5bps Friday). Meanwhile in Germany, the 10yr bund yield also hit an intraday peak of 3.57% on the Wednesday, before ending the week -1.4bps overall at 3.52%. French bonds underperformed, with the 10yr spread over bunds closing above 100bps on Friday for the first time since 2012. In absolute terms, the 10yr French yield also hit a post-2008 high on Friday of 4.56%.   This backdrop meant equities saw modest losses last week, with the S&P 500 down just -0.08% (+0.17% Friday). The index was boosted by some of the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.05% last week, marking its 4th consecutive weekly gain. However, small cap stocks struggled by comparison, with the Russell 2000 down -1.50% last week. After the AI doomerism of the previous weekend, the Philly Semiconductor index (SOX) closed up +0.73% after being down nearly -6% on Monday. Meanwhile in Europe, there were slightly larger declines, with the STOXX 600 down -0.57% (-1.11% Friday). Elsewhere, there were some sizeable moves in FX last week, with the dollar index up +1.11% after the Fed’s hike, marking its biggest weekly gain since June. Conversely, the Japanese Yen weakened -2.08% against the US Dollar last week, which marked its biggest weekly decline since October 2025. That followed the BoJ’s 25bp rate hike, but the move was already priced in and two members voted against the hike, so markets interpreted the decision in a dovish light. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:36

— Same Crowd, New Apocalypse...

 

at 9/21/26 6:20am

Same Crowd, New Apocalypse... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News, They received a new brief. The instant the AI-doom circuit kicked into gear the same 'protesters' who spent years on climate, oil and "Palestine" are back on the street with fresh banners declaring 'the end is nigh'. The clips looping across X could be any march of the last decade. Same wardrobe. Same slogans. Same dead-eyed rhythm. Only the monster changed. And just like that the Retard Brigade has moved on from "Palestine" and onto the robots. It's actually hilarious.... pic.twitter.com/SToBv9kE4B — Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) September 18, 2026 Yesterday, dozens of them marched from OpenAI's Mission Bay headquarters to Anthropic's offices beside Salesforce's Dreamforce crowd, then on to San Francisco City Hall. 'Stop the AI Race' wanted Mayor Daniel Lurie to declare a local "AI state of emergency." Chalk on the pavement read "Extinction is on the table." Staff at both labs were told to quit. Organiser Michaël Trazzi said industry leaders had asked Washington to regulate and been turned down. Fellow organiser Hunter Glenn told reporters, "I was pretty scared about the possibility of extinction for awhile," and called AI safety a bipartisan cause. Other demonstrations dubbed 'PauseAI' and 'Pull The Plug' assembled outside Downing Street in London after Anthropic alignment lead Evan Hubinger said he personally believed there was a greater than 10 percent chance AI could "kill all humans" within a decade. Their line: "10% chance of extinction? 100% chance of resistance." I wish they'd make their minds up - I thought climate change was going to wipeout the world ! — LindaTG1810 (@ltg1810) September 18, 2026 ??Suddenly, Gaza is out and AI doomsday is in for the professional protest class. Which of course means all the leftwing billionaire and Chinese money has switched causes. Funny how this all works, huh? pic.twitter.com/47kY2pkvnZ — ??David Blackmon?? (@EnergyAbsurdity) September 18, 2026 These groups are full of pliable, already-petrified people who need the next extinction story the way some people need a weather report. Climate was going to cook them. A virus was going to finish them. Oil was going to drown them. "Palestine" was going to moralise them. Now the robots will delete them. They are desperate to believe anything will wipe them out, because a life without a scheduled apocalypse leaves them with nothing to virtue chant about. That is why the propaganda works. They live wracked with fear and stay wide open to scaremongering on every topic conceivable. Hand them some dodgy stats and a Netflix documentary and they will screech into the streets. The content of the threat is secondary. ?.?. The retards are on the march. As usual. The Commies have made this "the current thing." And, for them, the issue is never the issue. The issue is the revolution. pic.twitter.com/ok4UXDSvCJ — GuardAmerican? (@GuardAmerican) September 18, 2026 Braindead protestors at it again. Look at the profile for this @Channel4News in the UK. It's literally ALL fear mongering. Protestors in 2026: -No Kings -Free Palestine -Reflecting pool -ICE -It's OK to kill your kids Now: AI is going to kill us. pic.twitter.com/juDOWLlaXU — Topher (@TopherGotWifi) September 18, 2026 They really are NPC robots getting a new chip inserted. — Neal Asher (@nealasher) September 18, 2026 "Ima feeling hela cute today, gonna protest the future!" — baranoww (@WBaranowski) September 18, 2026 Yup.... https://t.co/H6Zvy22Ype pic.twitter.com/IxqDtixC8a — Tim J Baxter. Get Off My Beach! (@TJ69B) September 19, 2026 A U.S. pause would hand China the century's defining technology and freeze the labs already winning. Sam Altman went to Congress in 2023 asking for tighter rules after OpenAI already held a commanding lead - regulatory capture with a halo. OpenAI withheld GPT-2 in 2019 as too dangerous. It was fully out months later. No measurable harm. Every AI doomsday call since the 1950s has missed. Europe sold GDPR as privacy and now hosts none of the world's dominant labs, because the rules decide who gets to build. Computer science professor Pedro Domingos noted, "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI," he said. "Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America." On the labs driving the panic: "I am much more worried about Anthropic than I am worried about AI." And: "These people think the apocalypse is coming... There's an AI god that's being born and they are the parents of that god." WATCH: Professor @pmddomingos: "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI.... Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America." https://t.co/xfAkAu7pNN pic.twitter.com/sslfJEkvew — Innovation Council (@innovationcncl) September 18, 2026 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave the extinction industry a simpler number. There is a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030, however the risks are framed. "2030 is not going to be the end of the world." The man selling the chips that power the boom is not losing sleep over the apocalypse. Jensen Huang is giving the AI doomsday crowd a reality check. The Nvidia CEO says there's a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030, regardless of how people frame the risks of artificial intelligence. "2030 is not going to be the end of the world." Apparently, the man selling the... — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 19, 2026 Scott Jennings had already mapped the rotation. "It's always the same apocalyptic crowd moving from one issue to the next. Responsible guardrails are one thing, but handicapping American innovation while China speeds ahead with zero regulation isn't sound policy - it's just foolish." If the U.S. wins the AI race, this will be President Trump's greatest legacy. What I see right now is a lot of people trying to slow him down who don't want him to have that legacy. pic.twitter.com/vP6nhbnLNM — Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) September 16, 2026 Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale told Jesse Watters the scare is not civic caution. It is a coordinated campaign. "These guys don't believe in God. They're atheists, but they've created something they believe is God," Watters said, laying out Lonsdale's point. "This is their Messiah, and this is their end of the world." Lonsdale urged, adding "There is a coordinated campaign to make the American people afraid." Lonsdale outlined how an industrial revolution is coming that would be "amazing for America if we get it right." The people trying to stop it, he said, "hate America." Speaking of which, Bill Gates is also back on the emergency circuit calling AI an "alien intelligence." "I don't think any government is nearly as deep on this as they have to be," he told Reuters. "Governments are way behind on this one." Then the Hollywood script: "There's all sorts of movies where some aliens are coming, and magically the US and China and everybody comes together to solve the problem. AI is kind of like this alien intelligence. It's here, and we better do like it shows in those movies." On a podcast he went further: "It's not the role of the industry to self-regulate or understand the whole-of-society impact that comes out of AI." He wants a permanent cross-border watchdog stitched from nuclear inspections, aviation rules and ozone treaties - and a meeting with Xi Jinping. His foundation pledged $1 billion over two years to spread AI through schools, clinics and farms in the same news cycle. Alarm in one hand. Pipeline in the other. Bernie Sanders appeared at the Future of Life Institute's "Pro-Human Assembly" in Washington. Obama's orbit told Democrats to get "on top of" a technology "moving very fast in private hands." Netflix dropped an AI-doom documentary a producer compared to "An Inconvenient Truth" or "The Social Dilemma." Same template. New monster. President Trump has already rejected the slowdown. "We're leading China in AI," he said. "Whoever wins AI, wins." A lot of the horror stories being shopped around, he added, "won't happen." The protest addicts started marching the minute the fear campaign was turned up because they were already waiting for the next wipeout. The malleable mob arriving right on schedule - to demand Washington park a still-American lead under a global committee while Beijing keeps training. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:20

— Qatar's Energy Minister Says Bessent's "Worthless" Hormuz Claim Is "Completely Wrong"

 

at 9/21/26 6:00am

Qatar's Energy Minister Says Bessent's "Worthless" Hormuz Claim Is "Completely Wrong" Qatari Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi blasted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday, saying he was "wrong" to claim the Strait of Hormuz would become "worthless" to the oil industry in two years. "I think this is completely wrong," Saad Al-Kaabi said Sunday at the Qatar Economic Forum in New York. Speaking to Fox Business's Larry Kudlow on the sidelines of the Group of 20 finance ministers' summit in North Carolina earlier this month, Bessent said the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, in about "two years will be… a worthless piece of water," adding that oil "will be going on pipelines across land." ????? ??: ?? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says “In 2 years, the Strait of Hormuz will be like a worthless piece of water.” pic.twitter.com/B94NIWtews — DustyBC Crypto (@DustyBC) September 1, 2026 Al-Kaabi, who also heads QatarEnergy, argued that rewiring the Hormuz area with pipelines to bypass the critical maritime chokepoint, as Bessent described, would not eliminate the broader trade flowing through the strait. "I don't think this is ever going to be obsolete," he said. Qatari Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi responds to Secretary Bessent’s remark that “in two years, the Strait of Hormuz will be like a worthless piece of water.” pic.twitter.com/rFKewRONIR — Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) September 20, 2026 Bessent's comments come as a generational rewiring of energy flows in the Gulf, and really the world, is underway, and allies in the Gulf have already announced plans for new pipeline exits out of the region that bypass the strait. New routes through the UAE and Iraq could eventually carry roughly 4 million additional barrels a day. Combined with increased flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, that could replace around 40% of the 20 million barrels a day that previously transited Hormuz. The rewiring is all part of meaningful diversification but carries risks, as demonstrated by the recent drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline that has rendered it useless in the short term. Alternative pipelines can reduce dependence on Hormuz. But warfare has forever changed, with low-cost one-way attack drones putting every critical infrastructure asset in the region in the crosshairs. Beyond the Gulf, the Trump administration is diversifying oil supply chains by signing a mega deal with Venezuela and allowing US energy giants to begin investments to ramp up oil production. The aim is to bring energy and critical materials supply chains closer to home, a key pillar of Trump's Western Hemisphere revival. Making Hormuz worthless is a long game for the Trump administration while it builds out energy assets in the West. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:00

— Westinghouse Eyes $50 Billion IPO As America Builds Valuations Faster Than Reactors

 

at 9/21/26 5:45am

Westinghouse Eyes $50 Billion IPO As America Builds Valuations Faster Than Reactors Westinghouse, the nuclear business that helped blow a hole in Toshiba’s balance sheet, is preparing for a different headline: a potential valuation above $50 billion. Bloomberg reports that the American nuclear king could publicly file for an IPO as soon as October. It submitted confidential paperwork in July, and while nothing is set in stone yet, the proposed valuation would crown a wild rehabilitation. The collapse came in 2017, when Toshiba-owned Westinghouse filed for Chapter 11 under the weight of cost overruns at the miserably managed Vogtle and Summer projects in Georgia and South Carolina. Brookfield Business Partners and institutional investors bought it out of bankruptcy in 2018 in a $4.6 billion deal. Brookfield spent the next several years rehabilitating the company and bolting on new acquisitions. Westinghouse acquired Rolls-Royce’s systems and services business, Laveer Engineering, BHI Energy and Spain’s Tecnatom. By 2022, Brookfield counted eight completed acquisitions since 2019. The revamped business emphasized technology and services, instead of emphasizing project management, which came with the construction risks that sank it under Toshiba. Cameco arrived through a second transaction in 2023. It paid $2.1 billion for 49% while Brookfield and friends took the other 51%. The final enterprise valuation was $8.2 billion, including $3.8 billion of debt retained by Westinghouse. At $50 billion, the headline valuation would be roughly eleven times the 2018 deal. Recall the October 2025 agreement between Cameco, Brookfield and the US government that brought up the IPO idea in the first place. The program contemplated up to ten AP1000 reactors and at least $80 billion of investment, supported by federal financing and permitting assistance. Everything seems to be moving along swimmingly, however, the whole point was to start putting some steel in the ground, which seems to have been forgotten about at this point... We have just recently exceeded 1,000 days since the US pledged to contribute to the effort of tripling global nuclear capacity Unfortunately, America is leading in only one category: nuclear-grade talk The structure of the US arguably makes this one of the most challenging… https://t.co/qXJIyvV6nK pic.twitter.com/oJb7ndG6A2 — Steffan Szumowski (@UnoMasReactor) September 8, 2026 When the deal was originally announced back then, the USG’s participation interest would vest after a final investment decision and binding agreements committing it to at least $80 billion of reactor projects. Once vested, it would receive 20% of cumulative cash distributions above $17.5 billion. An IPO would convert that interest into a five-year warrant to acquire equity equivalent to 20% of the company’s public value above $17.5 billion, measured at exercise. With the interest vested, Washington could require an IPO on or before January 2029 if the opening valuation reached at least $30 billion. Nothing's been discussed yet to indicate that specific trigger was pulled to instigate the current IPO. Questions still remain as to the exact ownership structure of Westinghouse post-IPO, but on their 2026Q2 call, Cameco CEO Tim Getzler indicated ownership will still stay with them and Brookfield: “We and Brookfield control Westinghouse today; we don't expect that to change” Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 07:45

— Investor Day Bust: Novo Nordisk Plunges As Wall Street's Turnaround Hopes Fade

 

at 9/21/26 4:55am

Investor Day Bust: Novo Nordisk Plunges As Wall Street's Turnaround Hopes Fade Novo Nordisk shares tumbled as much as 7.7% in Copenhagen trading after Wall Street analysts questioned the Danish drugmaker's turnaround efforts amid the loss of its GLP-1 lead to Eli Lilly & Co. At its capital markets day earlier in London, Novo outlined plans for more than five blockbuster launches and over $23 billion in new sales in the coming years. But that comes as its obesity-market lead has been surrendered to Eli Lilly, and analysts were hoping for more commentary from management about turnaround efforts as the stock is down 18% on the year. "Investors are selling the shares because they are not seeing concrete news that could drive the stock higher," Nordnet investment economist Per Hansen wrote. CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts, "We need to work harder, and we will." However, much of the optimism from capital markets a few years ago about Novo leading the GLP-1 race has all but faded. Much of Novo's medium-term outlook rests on CagriSema, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Michael Shah and Christos Nikoletopoulos. That treatment has already disappointed Wall Street multiple times, including failing to match Lilly's Zepbound in a head-to-head trial. Other potential growth drivers remain earlier in development and carry a higher risk of failure From the peak of the GLP-1 craze in mid-2024, Novo shares in Copenhagen have plunged a staggering 74%, with shares stabilizing since August 2025. "The event came amid mounting investor pressure for clarity beyond obesity drugs Wegovy and Ozempic as Novo's semaglutide patent expiries approach in the early 2030s. Investors were increasingly focused on Novo’s next growth drivers following setbacks for obesity candidate CagriSema. Novo said it expects revenue growth between 2026 and 2030 to be in line with industry peers," UBS analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a note. Novo has been pursuing a turnaround effort this year, already leading to substantial restructuring. Doustdar has cut as many as 9,000 jobs and removed several management layers, with total cuts reaching about 13,000. Novo is also pursuing new therapeutic areas and using AI to accelerate drug development. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:55

— Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock

 

at 9/21/26 4:45am

Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock Military conflicts, economic wars, and resource wars are converging ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. Export restrictions on critical materials and energy products are adding economic pressure worldwide, raising the risk that supply disruptions and retaliatory measures widen existing conflicts. With no clear path to de-escalation, the potential for spillover from active war zones remains top of mind. The most pressing news so far this morning is that Ukraine launched a major overnight drone strike on Russia, hitting a Moscow refinery despite President Trump's request for Ukraine to stop striking Russian energy infrastructure as a global refining crisis deepens. Bloomberg reports that the Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery, about 16 miles from the Kremlin, was struck by drones. The facility has a processing capacity of around 245,000 barrels a day and supplies fuel to the surrounding metro area. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X, "One of Russia's key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican." Our long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night. One of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100,… pic.twitter.com/ka5mlDSgb7 — Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 20, 2026 Last week, diesel futures and refining spreads climbed to record highs as worsening supply disruptions in the Gulf and Russia tightened availability of the industrial fuel that powers the global economy. Potential export restrictions, or extensions of existing restrictions, are compounding the squeeze. A report on Tuesday said Moscow was considering extending its diesel export ban, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that day he was "open to exploring" a US diesel export ban. The squeeze was even more severe in refining spreads. The US heating oil crack, which measures the difference between fuel and crude prices, surged to $117 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest level in Bloomberg data going back to 2009. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that the diesel price shock echoes similar moves in gasoline during the 2008 energy shock. * * * Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:45

— VW Supervisory Board Recommends Another 4,100 Job Cuts At Porsche

 

at 9/21/26 4:30am

VW Supervisory Board Recommends Another 4,100 Job Cuts At Porsche Submitted by Thomas Kolbe The hailstorm of bad news from Germany’s auto industry simply refuses to end. Again and again, heavy hailstones from corporate press offices crash down on anxious workforces at the automakers, ruining politicians’ election campaigns and destroying the last hopes of those still clinging to the promise of an electric car made in Germany. The latest impact: According to a report by Handelsblatt, citing an internal recommendation by Volkswagen’s Supervisory Board, the personnel scalpel is once again being applied to the “Sport Luxury” division, meaning Porsche. Another 4,100 jobs are to be eliminated at Porsche, after it had already become clear that a total of 9,000 positions would disappear over the coming years. Porsche currently still employs 41,800 people. According to the Supervisory Board’s proposal, Porsche is supposed to improve its operating profit by €3.8 billion by the end of the decade. In overhead costs alone, the Supervisory Board’s calculation shows a gap of around €700 million. That gap is to be closed through the additional job cuts. Volkswagen’s austerity program now seems to be updated almost weekly. The notion that Volkswagen’s luxury brand Porsche could shield itself from the group-wide restructuring — or, better put, the clear-cutting — is now finally gone. The crisis runs deep, it is comprehensive, and it has already cost 150,000 jobs across the automotive sector. For consulting firm Roland Berger, there is still no end in sight. Berger expects another 200,000 jobs to disappear from Germany’s automotive sector by 2030. Entire value chains — and with them purchasing power, knowledge and prosperity — are disappearing. A catastrophe for suppliers, for entire regions and for municipal treasuries that had relied so heavily on revenues from what was once Germany’s flagship industry. But that is what happens when you become ideologically entrenched … Stuttgart is the blueprint for industrial locations across the republic that until recently threw themselves with fervor into the warm, ecologist current. The home of Porsche and Mercedes-Benz closed the last fiscal year with a deficit of €712 million — and the comfortably wealthy city could become a poorhouse if nobody pulls the emergency brake. Residents of these regions will have to prepare for public services — well-equipped schools, municipal sports facilities, swimming pools and recreational centers — to become luxury goods. The automotive industry is leaving; it is leaving behind empty coffers and high unemployment. A German Rust Belt is emerging before our eyes. The downward spiral has engulfed every segment of Germany’s automotive industry: intense competitive pressure from China, tariff tensions with the United States, towering energy costs at home and an endless regulatory frenzy are all battering the business. It was therefore only a matter of time before even a luxury brand like Porsche would come under the wheels. And the company’s communications strategy seemed strangely familiar: In a kind of salami tactic, common in politics, the company has been announcing since 2024 that Porsche would initially allow temporary production contracts to expire. Around 1,500 employees were affected that year. In February 2025 came the announcement that around 1,900 jobs in Zuffenhausen and Weissach would be eliminated by 2029. Another 500 temporary contracts were not to be renewed. In May 2026, it continued: Porsche announced the closure of its subsidiaries Cellforce, eBike Performance and Cetitec. More than 500 jobs were lost. At the end of July this year, the future package was finally presented: Another 5,000 jobs are to be eliminated by 2035, naturally in a socially responsible manner. So much should the future be worth. Taken together, that amounts to around 9,000 jobs — meaning that more than one in three positions at the home location will disappear. Now another 4,100 new job cuts are being added — the company is being ground down further and further. Volkswagen’s decline is accelerating. A look at its compressed margins is more than alarming: Originally, management had calculated on an operating margin of between 4 and 5.5 percent this year. It has now shrunk to 1 percent. A €10 billion special effect is weighing on the result. The ailing group is in intensive care. What is happening at Volkswagen is the great mirror image of German industry: poor domestic conditions and excessively high energy costs following disastrous political decisions are making industrial production at home almost impossible. Since 2018, around 15 percent of German industrial production has disappeared. Around 420,000 jobs in manufacturing have been lost since 2019. With these jobs, engineering expertise is disappearing as well — expertise that is indispensable to a society. Disastrous construction projects such as Berlin Brandenburg Airport, Stuttgart 21 or the Hamburg Opera, where costs and schedules regularly spiral out of control, loudly testify to Germany’s brain drain. Germany in 2026: Some are no longer capable of organizing infrastructure projects, while others, representatives of business and labor unions, are incapable of anticipating trends in global markets. Together, in their hour of need, they strike up a hymn to moralism, in a green overtone, always self-assured and arrogant toward dissenting criticism. A melody of decline. * * *  About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:30

— Utah Valley University Faculty's Sickening Post-Assassination Emails About Charlie Kirk Exposed

 

at 9/21/26 3:15am

Utah Valley University Faculty's Sickening Post-Assassination Emails About Charlie Kirk Exposed New public records indicate that faculty members at Utah Valley University sent hostile messages regarding Charlie Kirk to the university's administrators in the weeks following his assassination on the UVU campus, even though the university had previously issued public statements advocating civility and free expression. Utah Valley University campus Judicial Watch obtained the 133 pages of emails and text messages through a Utah Government Records Access and Management Act request. The records went to then-UVU President Astrid S. Tuminez and other administrators. Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, was assassinated on the UVU campus while launching a nationwide campus speaking tour. University administrators spent the following months talking about healing and dialogue. Some of the correspondence flowing into the university president's inbox tells a different story. On September 22, 2025, a UVU instructor wrote to Tuminez, framing Kirk as a threat to "students we are trying to educate." Kirk "appealed to the worst of us," the instructor wrote, adding that he "spoke his prejudices openly, not to test free speech, but to shape minds," and that he "targeted impressionable youth, feeding on their fears and anxieties." The email continued: The hidden message in his rants was clear: hate is natural, and to resist it is to deny who you are. Hate masquerading as justice is nothing of the sort. True justice seeks fairness, accountability, and protection for all, while hate targets, divides, and destroys.... That is why we must resist any effort to memorialize him or turn him into an icon.... Charlie Kirk did not stand for civility, compassion, or truth. There was nothing civil about him. The instructor closed by warning that "to memorialize him would be a grave mistake." A second email, dated November 4, 2025 and signed as a "faculty member," escalated the anti-Kirk venom. I've had a hard time dealing with the aftermath of the shooting on our campus, and in particular, I cannot understand how people could support or mourn someone who was so divisive and spewed such vituperation in his "debates." I regret that he was invited to UVU at all, and wish you had rethought the decision to allow him a forum on our campus. That faculty member then turned to the proposed campus memorial, warning administrators that the Utah legislature holds "enormous power" and predicting a mass faculty exodus if UVU honored Kirk. "Should a memorial to him be erected on our campus, I fear you will lose many faculty members, including myself," the email said. The same faculty member closed with a threat dressed as principle, writing, "I would not work at a university that supports Charlie Kirk's ideals in any way." Nine days after the assassination, someone whose name Judicial Watch redacted from the release pitched the university on a different project. The pitch called for a $1 million fundraising drive named "Our Better Selves for a Better America." "I would like to raise $1 million for this proposal," it read. "I have one pledge for $100k. I would like to raise the other $900k quickly." UVU ran with it. The university launched Our Better Selves for a Better America as an official presidential initiative built around civil dialogue, conflict navigation, and peacemaking. "The killing of Charlie Kirk on September 10, 2025, was a grievous tragedy that reverberated through the Utah Valley University (UVU) community and nation. It challenged civility, respectful disagreement, and freedom of speech - core freedoms written in the United States Constitution," the university's webpage about the initiative reads. "In the wake of this tragedy, UVU President Astrid S. Tuminez, Ph.D., asked, 'What is this moment asking of us? Of UVU? Of the nation?'" While the university publicly promoted civility and open discourse, the correspondence landing in its president's inbox ran the other way. "Charlie Kirk was assassinated while exercising his right to speak on a college campus," Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton said in a statement. "These records reveal that, even as Utah Valley University publicly called for free expression and civil discourse, some faculty members were making hateful and vicious comments about him, objecting to his invitation to campus, and threatening to leave if his memory were honored." Charlie Kirk's family moved this month to put Utah Valley University and state officials on notice that it intends to sue, accusing the school of security failures that let his assassination happen. "Placing a politically controversial figure like Charlie Kirk in an outdoor event in the quad surrounded by tall buildings and other elevated observation platforms is accurately described as walking him into a fishbowl," the notice of claim read. ???NEW this morning: Charlie Kirk’s family has filed a notice of claim against UVU, the state of Utah and some current and former university leaders over security failures that they allege allowed Charlie’s murder to happen. Among the allegations is that campus TPUSA… pic.twitter.com/jj9k77yLqi — Michael Ruiz (@mikerreports) September 16, 2026 "Through a series of stunning failures and reckless decisions, the UVU Parties created a foreseeable danger to Charlie," the document continued. "Those decisions ultimately rendered Mr. Kirk helpless to the rooftop shooter in an assassination that could have been avoided had the UVU Parties only taken reasonable steps to plan and oversee a safe event, steps outlined below that have been standard practice for other universities hosting controversial speakers." * * * Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 05:15

As of 9/21/26 12:04pm. Last new 9/21/26 11:17am.