Crooked Bough News Round-up

— "When That Turns... You Buy Them All" - Key Insights From Oil Strategist Bulls & Bears

 

at 12/7/24 11:25am

"When That Turns... You Buy Them All" - Key Insights From Oil Strategist Bulls & Bears Where is oil headed? Most analysts flipped bearish following the Trump win with promises to “drill baby drill”. But how will tariffs factor in? Sanctions? War? Friday night concluded ZeroHedge’s first live-premium debate with energy analysts Josh Young of Bison Interests (The Bull) and Paul Sankey of Sankey Research (The Bear) who answered these questions and more. Expertly moderated by “The Macro Tourist” Kevin Muir, we’ve compiled key moments below but encourage all readers to listen to the full debate (linked at the bottom). The Bear Case: As Mr. Sankey notes, "US refiners are running at very high levels of absolute throughput... but absolute levels of barrels going through the refineries seem to be really crushing margins." In essence, the challenge of high volumes but low profitability, especially during seasonal downturns.  He adds, "it's seasonally absolutely normal for this to be a very bad time of year because obviously people are not driving to the beach," pointing to the predictable lull in demand. Global overcapacity, particularly China’s modernized refining sector and the retirement of inefficient "teapot refineries," complicates the balance between capacity and demand. Sankey underscores that "the US hasn’t built a new refinery since the seventies," highlighting the long-term decline in domestic refining capacity. pic.twitter.com/06pCmK8ARh — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 7, 2024 Sankey goes on to argue that while demand is important, "the pricing principle is productivity of supply." When oil productivity falls, prices rise. In the 60s and 70s, "OPEC cutting supply... productivity fell and the price rocketed." When non-OPEC supply increased in the 80s and 90s, productivity rose, and prices fell. In the 2000s, China’s demand surged, but “you weren’t getting a supply response, and the price rose." From 2012 onwards, U.S. oil productivity improvements put pressure on prices, as the U.S. added 10-13 million barrels per day of supply. Sankey points out that this "has been the problem for OPEC" as U.S. output has "eaten their lunch." The crucial turning point will be when U.S. productivity declines: "When the U.S. productivity begins to roll over... we’re looking for it." Sankey predicts that in two to three years, U.S. production will begin to struggle, which could shift his outlook: “When that turns to decline, then you buy them all.”  pic.twitter.com/hvCaHz5OeM — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 7, 2024 The Bull Case: On the other side, Chinese demand remains strong, says Mr. Young who challenges a notion put forth by Sankey that we are likely to hit peak global demand. Young emphasizing that despite the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and LNG-powered trucks, "they still represent the minority of vehicles that are produced in China and sold." Gasoline-powered vehicles continue to increase, and diesel remains dominant in China's truck fleet. Clear and ongoing demand for traditional fuels. On Chinese refinery capacity, Young suggests that it reflects "revealed preferences" rather than just environmental initiatives. "I struggle to come up with a bearish oil narrative for China growing their refinery capacity significantly in the last few years."  pic.twitter.com/sern3rb3JR — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 7, 2024 Compounding strong demand is weak supply, particularly in nat gas, says Young.  "We're starting to see core gas producers come in and pay pretty high prices for assets that are nearly fully developed." Young reveals that liquored-up energy investment bankers confided in him earlier this week about their concerns of limited inventory, sharing that they "are close to out of these core inventory places." pic.twitter.com/rt2nNuBDP9 — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 7, 2024 Dark Horse Event To Change The Thesis Muir closed by asking Young and Sankey what could change their oil outlooks. Young stated, “If there isn’t some sort of catastrophic tariff on China and there’s further stimulus in China, but Chinese demand materially disappoints and goes negative in 2025, I think that would make a very uncomfortable situation for an oil bull.” Sankey focused on supply, emphasizing its outsized impact over the demand side of the price equation. He specifically noted the impact of U.S. shale production. U.S. shale has added 10-13 million barrels per day and if this productivity declines in the next two to three years, Sankey said, his bearish view will shift. In short, the bulls should keep an eye out for weakness in Chinese demand. Bears should watch for declining U.S. shale production. pic.twitter.com/wqvAad2gIv — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) December 7, 2024 To hear the full Bull and Bear discussion that went for over an hour, you must sign up for ZeroHedge Premium or Professional tiers. Pro subs additionally gain access to institutional research from the major banks to help you gain an edge when trading. Sign up before next Friday evening when Michael Pento and Lance Roberts debate as Pento calls for a 50%+ market crash while Roberts remains long S&P, exclusively for paid ZH subs.   Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 13:25

— Watch Live: Trump Meets Macron & Zelenskyy At Notre Dame Reopening

 

at 12/7/24 10:55am

Watch Live: Trump Meets Macron & Zelenskyy At Notre Dame Reopening The centuries-old Paris landmark Notre-Dame Cathedral reopens today, five-and-a-half years after a devastating fire destroyed its spire and roof and brought the entire Gothic masterpiece within minutes of collapsing. As 'sundance' reports, the 860-year-old medieval building has been meticulously restored, with a new spire and rib vaulting, its flying buttresses and carved stone gargoyles returned to their past glory and the white stone and gold decorations shining brighter than ever. The restoration is estimated to have cost about $740 million. The state hands over the building to the Catholic church, the archbishop opens the door, and a liturgical celebration is held with singing and a blessing. (AP) […] Because of strong winds forecast for Saturday evening in Paris, the French presidential palace and the Paris diocese said Friday the entire opening ceremony will be held inside Notre Dame, instead of starting from the cathedral’s forecourt as initially planned. […] The Île de la Cité — the small island in the River Seine that is home to Notre Dame and the historic heart of Paris— is closed to tourists and non-residents. Police vans and barriers blocked cobblestoned streets in a large perimeter around the island, while soldiers in thick body armor and sniffer dogs patrolled embankments. A special security detail is following Trump. (more) President Trump and various foreign dignitaries (including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy) are in attendance. Trump just got in his armored suburban.Zelensky got in a minivan.Absolutely mogged. ? pic.twitter.com/BrqSsWj87L— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) December 7, 2024 More than 20 French government security agents were helping ensure Trump’s safety alongside the Secret Service, according to French national police. A special French police van provided anti-drone protection for Trump’s convoy. Security was tighter than usual outside the US Embassy and other sites around Paris for the reopening. The three leaders held a trilateral meeting prior to the opening ceremony "It seems like the world is going a little crazy right now and we will be talking about that," Trump told reporters as he prepared to sit down for talks with Macron. France 24 reports that in an effort to build trust with the incoming US administration, Zelensky’s top aide Andriy Yermak met key members of Trump’s team on a two-day trip earlier this week. A senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak publicly, described the meetings as productive, but declined to disclose details. Ahead of the visit, Trump expressed gratitude and congratulations to the French leader who faces chaos domestically amid his government's collapse. “It is an honor to announce that I will be traveling to Paris, France, on Saturday to attend the re-opening of the Magnificent and Historic Notre Dame Cathedral, which has been fully restored after a devastating fire five years ago,” Trump said on Truth Social. “President Emmanuel Macron has done a wonderful job ensuring that Notre Dame has been restored to its full level of glory, and even more so. It will be a very special day for all!” Macron was treated to Trump's ubiquitous handshake-from-hell... The celebration is set to begin at 7 p.m. local time (1 p.m. EST) with a documentary on the reconstruction followed by live classical music. The religious ceremony is set to end at 9 p.m. local time followed by a concert. The first Mass will take place Sunday at 10:30 a.m. Watch live here... Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 12:55

— Argentine Energy Companies Issue US Debt As Milei's Favor Grows On Wall Street

 

at 12/7/24 10:15am

Argentine Energy Companies Issue US Debt As Milei's Favor Grows On Wall Street Confidence in Argentina, and its economy, looks to be picking up steam. So much so that Argentine energy companies are tapping U.S. debt markets, according to Bloomberg. Shale driller Vista Energy raised $600 million in its first foreign bond sale, while Pampa Energia is planning another market return this year amid growing output in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale. MSU Energy also secured $177 million to refinance debt. It's hard to say that these efforts to access global lenders do anything but underscore Wall Street's growing confidence in President Milei as he nears the end of his first year in office. Milei has stayed committed to his agenda of economic deregulation and addressing chronic government budget deficits. Alexander Robey, portfolio manager for emerging-market debt at Allianz Global Investors GmbH, commented: “The positive momentum on the macroeconomic side is opening the door for corporates to raise capital and refinance existing debt in the markets." He added: “Issuers are making the most of this opportunity given market sentiment can turn just as quickly.” Bloomberg writes that Argentina’s sovereign debt spread is at a five-year low of 757 basis points, creating a favorable environment for issuers. Vista Energy secured an 11-year bond at a 7.6% yield, lower than the 8%-9% range seen in earlier market activity this year. It's amazing what actually embracing free market solutions can do, isn't it? Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 12:15

— Jihadists Reach Outskirts Of Damascus Amid Likely Transition Of Power Deal, Assad's Fate Uncertain

 

at 12/7/24 9:40am

Jihadists Reach Outskirts Of Damascus Amid Likely Transition Of Power Deal, Assad's Fate Uncertain There are widespread reports that jihadist forces under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and which are backed by Turkey have entered key districts of Homs in central Syria, and other convoys have already reached the outskirts of Damascus. Very little fighting has actually taken place, with the Syrian Army peeling back from position after position, and with heavy equipment including tanks seen being transported to the capital or in other instances to the coast. ZeroHedge's contacts in Damascus strongly suggest a transition of power deal has already been made. External discussions are centered in Doha, and some premature and unverified reports have claimed President Bashar al-Assad has already flown out of the country; however, Syrian state SANA on Saturday sought to refute these reports, saying he is still in Damascus. Iranian advisers and IRGC officers have departed Damascus. This also partly explains why Syrian national forces have not put up much of a fight. Unverified social media reports further say that anti-Assad forces have essentially been able to walk into suburban or countryside areas of the capital with no resistance. Again, what points to the likely reality of a secret deal which allows Assad's safe exit and that of his top officials is the fact that all of this is happening without much bloodshed. Below is the latest on the jihadist convoy locations according to The Guardian: Syrian insurgents have reached the suburbs of Damascus, opposition activists and a rebel commander said on Saturday, as a rapidly moving offensive in which they have taken over some of Syria’s largest cities continued. Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said insurgents were active in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana and Daraya. He said opposition fighters were also marching from eastern Syria towards the Damascus suburb of Harasta. Hassan Abdul-Ghani, an insurgent commander, posted on Telegram that opposition forces had started to encircle Damascus in the “final stage” of their offensive. He said fighters were heading from southern Syria towards Damascus. Map: The collapse of Syria over the last 10 days Whatever happens next, it is becoming clear that the Baathist Syrian state under the Assad family, which goes back to 1970 when Hafez Assad first emerged in power, will never be the same again - and is coming to a fast end. Many Christian, Alawite, and Sunni ruling families in the capital area are fleeing to the Lebanese border, not waiting around to take their chances under Taliban-style rule, despite dubious claims that HTS plans to respect 'diversity' and pluralism. Footage from a key suburbs outside the capital [note: cannot be independently verified]... SYRIA: Anti-Assad protestors bring down Hafez Assad statue in middle of Jarmana (20 min from Damascus). The protests and rebel offensive are only spreading, gradually approaching capital… pic.twitter.com/kkBhGsOlj2 — Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) December 7, 2024 BREAKING — Damascus outskirts Al Moademyeh is free of Assad forces. This is right next to Mezzeh Air Base pic.twitter.com/ACLcRaTU1E — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 7, 2024 Contradictory reporting over Assad's whereabouts and political transition plans: Embassy Statement: Denial of Allegations Made in Wall Street Journal Article pic.twitter.com/IEE8JmbQbt — Jordan Embassy in Washington D.C. (@JorEmbUS) December 6, 2024 Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observes, "It looks like what will remain of the old Syria will be limited to Homs, for now, and on longer term Latakia - Tartous only. Lebanon should think about defended its borders. People in Damascus should think of their future in the next 24-48 hours." The latest from the Syrian presidency's office: Presidency of the #Syrian Arab Republic affirms that President Bashar al-Assad is assuming his work, national and constitutional tasks from the capital, Damascushttps://t.co/v4ko1Nfiek pic.twitter.com/Sj8CGjaE0C — SANAEnglishOfficial (@SANAEnOfficial) December 7, 2024 Meanwhile the Syrian Interior Minister Major General Al-Rahmon vows that "there is a very strong security cordon on the outskirts of Damascus and no one can break it." developing... Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 11:40

— CEO Murder Update: Backpack Found In Central Park, Suspect May Have Immediately Left City By Bus

 

at 12/7/24 9:05am

CEO Murder Update: Backpack Found In Central Park, Suspect May Have Immediately Left City By Bus An intensive search of New York City's Central Park seems to have yielded an important break in the hunt for the assassin of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson: Police think they've found a backpack that the killer ditched as he fled the murder scene. Meanwhile, police have released a detailed timeline of his movements around the city, and say the suspect the mystery man fled the city by bus very soon after carrying out his premeditated crime on Wednesday morning.  At 6:44 am, the suspect shot the 50-year-old Thompson -- who was arriving at the New York Hilton Midtown for an investors' meeting -- in the back and leg before leaving first by foot, then using an e-bike he rode through Central Park. Police think he entered the park by riding north up 6th Avenue, and then exited the park at West 77th Street -- minus the backpack he wore before and during the killing and as he rolled into the park. This backpack, found in a wooded area of Central Park, is believed to have been ditched by the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson (obtained by New York Post) Concluding the pack was likely somewhere in the park -- and within it, perhaps the murder weapon -- NYPD assigned more than 100 police officers to comb the 840-acre expanse. They hit paydirt, with the New York Post reporting that cops found the apparent backpack in a treed area south of the Carousel near Heckscher Playground near Central Park South. So far, police haven't leaked anything about the contents of the backpack, which appears to be an Everyday Backpack sold by Peak Designs between 2016 and 2019. Marketed for use by photographers but also used by others, the latest version goes for about $250. Police have yet to find the killer's getaway bike, which he seems to have abandoned somewhere after he exited Central Park and before he made his way to a bus station. Police found the backpack between the Carousel (6) and Heckscher Playground (8), not far from where he is believed to have entered just west of The Pond (9)  On Friday, police provided their most detailed accounting yet of the suspect's moves around New York City since he arrived on a Greyhound bus 10 days before carrying out the killing -- along with what they've learned from questioning of witnesses, including people who stayed at the same hostel he did:  Friday, Nov 24: The Killer Arrives Suspect arrives in New York City at 10:11 pm on a Greyhound bus that originated in Atlanta and made six or seven stops along its journey. Police are unsure where he got on. He immediately takes a cab to the site of the assassination -- the New York Hilton Midtown -- and walks around the area for a half hour before heading to the HI New York City Hostel at Amsterdam Avenue and West 103rd Street, on the Upper West Side near Central Park. Per earlier reports, the suspect was said to have checked out of the hostel on Friday, Nov. 29, only to return and check back in the very next day. However, police now say the check-out appears to have only happened via an administrative entry in the hostel's systems, and that the suspect actually stayed there for all the 10 days before the attack.   Wednesday, Dec 4: The Day of the Murder 5:30 am: Suspect leaves the hostel, likely via bike, and arrives at the Hilton 11 minutes later.  5:41 am: After wandering in the hotel's vicinity and strolling back and forth along West 54th, he goes to a Starbucks and purchases water and a Kind snack bar.   6:30 am: Suspect appears to be talking on a cell phone; police later recover a phone in a nearby alley 6:44 am: He fatally shoots UnitedHealthcare CEO Thompson -- who had walked from his lodging at the Marriott across the street -- in the back and leg. The suspect flees into an alley where he apparently stashed his bike.  6:48 am: He enters Central Park at 60th Street -- still wearing the backpack -- and rides onto Center Drive   6:56 am: Suspect exits the park close to West 77th Street -- now without the backpack 6:58 am: Suspect captured on security camera video biking at 86th Street and Columbus Ave.  7:00 am: Now on foot, he's walking on 86th Street. Next, he hails a cab close to West 85th and Columbus Avenue, and heads for the George Washington Bridge Bus Station, which provides interstate service to Philadelphia, Boston and Washington, DC.   7:30 am: Suspect has arrived at the bus station, with video capturing him entering but not leaving, leading police to think he may have left the city very shortly after his crime.   The suspect strictly guarded his face from view during his long stay at a hostel -- except when the hostel's female desk clerk asked him to remove it so she could see his face (NYPD) NYPD chief of detectives Joseph Kenny also gave new insight into how the suspect conducted himself during the several nights he stayed a the hostel:  At the hostel, he stayed under fake identification, always using cash, avoiding conversation and hiding his face with his mask even during meals, the chief said. He never spoke with anyone and lowered his mask once to speak, smiling, to the hostel clerk when he first checked in, the chief said. -- New York Times “From every indication we have from witnesses, from the Starbucks, from the hostel, he kept his mask on at all times except for the one instance where we have him photographed with the mask off,” said Kenny. Police didn't find any clues in the room he shared with strangers -- who tell police he never spoke to them.  As we detailed on Friday, CBS News reported that scrutiny of the video of the shooting has led police to believe the murder weapon is a B&T Station SIX-9, a highly unusual weapon which comes equipped with a sound-suppressor and retails for around $2,100. However, at Friday's briefing Kenny said police were considering if the killer may have used a veterinary pistol, which he said is often used in agricultural settings for quiet euthanasia of animals.   Police recovered this cell phone -- which police sources describe as a "burner" -- in an alley near the assassination site (James Messerschmidt via New York Post) The killer used a sharpie to write "deny," "defend" and "depose" on shell casings recovered at the scene of the crime. Given the words' similarity to the title of Jay Feinman's book, "Delay Deny Defend: Why Insurance Companies Don't Pay Claims And What You Can Do About It," there's reason to think the assassination may have been sparked by animus over UnitedHealthcare's business practices -- either from a customer or an employee.   That's not to say police are ruling out other possible motives. However, with detectives having interviewed Thompson's family and associates along with police agencies in his home state of Minnesota, Kenny told reporters, “Nothing in our investigation at this time so far indicates that it had anything to do with his personal life." Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 11:05

— Leader Of Jihadist Rebels In Syria Declares "Diversity Is A Strength"

 

at 12/7/24 8:30am

Leader Of Jihadist Rebels In Syria Declares "Diversity Is A Strength" Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news, The leader of the Syrian rebel jihadist army in Syria, who was previously a member of Al-Qaeda and ISIS, marked his forces taking more territory in the country by declaring, “Diversity is a strength.” Yes, really. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the primary fighting force trying to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad’s government. After the jihadist rebels seized control of Aleppo last week, Syria’s second city, they are now making progress in sweeping through Homs and Hama. Al-Jolani made clear that, “The goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime,” but another statement he made is particularly ludicrous given that he is the leader of a militia of literal terrorists. The Israel-loving jihadists with links to ISIS and Al-Qaeda who are tearing through Syria are "diversity-friendly" and believe "diversity is a strength," according to The Telegraph. https://t.co/UcuBmYYYwX — Chris Menahan ?? (@infolibnews) December 6, 2024 “On Tuesday, with regime forces fully ejected from the city, Jolani put out a second statement declaring “diversity is a strength,” reports the Telegraph. Yes, apparently, the jihadists have gone woke. We learn that HTS is “far more liberal than IS or the Taliban,” and therefore presumably deserves the support of the military-industrial complex. As Chris Menahan notes, the writer of the Telegraph article commending the jihadists for their embrace of “diversity” is “Israel Lobby mouthpiece Aaron Y. Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy,” who has “been lobbying for this Islamic terrorist to be removed from the US’s list of foreign terrorist organizations for at least two years now.” Al-Jolani has a $10 million US bounty on his head, is on the international terrorist list and was previously a member of both Al-Qaeda and ISIS before apparently rejecting their ‘extreme’ ideology. He now appears to be pandering to the western establishment, presumably in an effort to enlist their support in overthrowing Assad, by mimicking the rhetoric of transnational corporation HR departments. Meanwhile, the legacy media is once again lionizing the jihadist rebel army despite the innumerable atrocities they committed during the Syrian civil war, which led to the emergence of ISIS, numerous mass casualty terror attacks in western Europe, as well as the migrant crisis. Should Assad be overthrown, it will almost certainly prompt a new wave of migrants to flood from Syria into western European countries at a time when illegal immigration is already a chronic problem. *  *  * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 10:30

— South Korea's President Survives Impeachment Vote As Protests Erupt 

 

at 12/7/24 7:55am

South Korea's President Survives Impeachment Vote As Protests Erupt  Days after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared a brief state of emergency martial law (probably the shortest on record), an opposition party's attempt to impeach him failed when most lawmakers from his conservative ruling party boycotted the vote.  The Democratic Party's move to impeach Yoon was thwarted on Saturday by the president's People Power Party, which announced shortly before the assembly session that it had decided to oppose the bill. Impeaching the president requires a two-thirds majority in the 300-member assembly - or about 200 votes. However, the opposition party fell short of the threshold, as members of the president's party largely abstained from voting.  AP News cited National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik, who called the failed impeachment vote "very regrettable" and a national "embarrassment."  "The failure to hold a qualified vote on this matter means we were not even able to exercise the democratic procedure of deciding on a critical national issue," the speaker said. Earlier in the day, Yoon apologized to the South Korean people for the emergency martial law, admitting he acted out of 'desperation.' He made no mention of resigning or impeachment, stating that he would leave that decision to his party.  Opposition parties could push through a new impeachment motion after the new parliamentary session opens next Wednesday.  "There are worries that Yoon won't be able to serve out his remaining 2 ½ years in office because his leadership took a huge hit," AP noted, adding, "Many experts say some ruling party lawmakers could eventually join opposition parties' efforts to impeach Yoon if public demands for it grow further."  Protests gathered outside the National Assembly building shortly after the motion to impeach Yoon failed. Angry #SouthKorean citizens protesting after the National Assembly failed to impeach President Yoon tonight. pic.twitter.com/cwEAPYmXpj — William Yang (@WilliamYang120) December 7, 2024 "Tens of thousands of protesters massed outside South Korea's National," NYTimes wrote in a running blog.  JUST IN - Massive crowd gathers before the National Assembly plenary session to vote on South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment motion pic.twitter.com/IF7SFXR3kj — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) December 7, 2024 NYTimes pointed out, "The crowd outside the National Assembly has grown so large that Seoul's subway operator has closed two nearby stations." Thousands await outside the National Assembly. It's almost zero degrees. Impeachment vote to take place shortly. pic.twitter.com/JsLUJcCQnw — Raphael Rashid (@koryodynasty) December 7, 2024 In markets, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) was up 1.3% on the week, Ishares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) fell 4.3%.  Meanwhile, Graham Ambrose, managing director of Goldman Sachs' equity franchise sales team in London, told clients late Tuesday that there could be "buying opportunities in Seoul in coming days."  Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 09:55

— "Holy Sh!t. Pun Intended": Sequoia Partner Shaun Maguire Reveals Hunter Biden's "Book Of Poop Art"

 

at 12/7/24 7:25am

"Holy Sh!t. Pun Intended": Sequoia Partner Shaun Maguire Reveals Hunter Biden's "Book Of Poop Art" Let's start with a comment from the X account Autism Capital: "Holy shit. Pun intended." Holy shit. Pun intended. — Autism Capital ? (@AutismCapital) December 6, 2024 The remark was in response to Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire's post, which included an image of what he claims is Hunter Biden's book of literal "poop art." "Hunter's lawyers have been denying this happened," Maguire said.  For context, Maguire revealed on Sunday that Hunter owed his family $300,000 in back rent for a rental in Venice, California, from 2019 to 2020. He continued, "Here's a page from his book of poop art, which he tried to use to pay rent."  Hunter’s lawyers have been denying this happened Here’s a page from his book of poop art, which he tried to use to pay rent That orange-brown stuff is his ? ? ? ? ? The rest of the book is in our basement “Where is Hunter” https://t.co/O6JBV1bzza pic.twitter.com/by1S1M194j — Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) December 6, 2024 Maguire's responses to other X users questioning Hunter's pop art are hilarious: bro i don't speak crackhead — Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) December 6, 2024 i don't deliberately scame people like hunter or hawk tuah girl ? — Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) December 6, 2024 It's true. The internet can verify the handwriting. The poop would pass a DNA test. — Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) December 6, 2024 Elon Musk chimed in... This is next-level ? ? — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 6, 2024 On Sunday, Maguire called Hunter an "Absolute shit bag" for skipping out on a year of rent. Rent, according to Maguire, was $25,000 a month.  Meanwhile, President Joe Biden pardoned Hunter this week for potential federal crimes dating back ten years to his days on the board of the Ukrainian energy giant Burisma. The pardon represents legal forgiveness.  As for Maguire and the $300k in back rent Hunter still owes—well, maybe Sotheby's can auction off the book...  Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 09:25

— Zelensky's Flip-Flop On Ceasefire Terms Is A Faux Concession

 

at 12/7/24 7:20am

Zelensky's Flip-Flop On Ceasefire Terms Is A Faux Concession Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, Ukraine will still remain a de facto member of NATO so long as its security guarantees with the bloc’s members remain in effect. Zelensky recently flip-flopped on ceasefire terms by signaling that he’d accept a cessation of hostilities in exchange for Ukraine being admitted to NATO, though without Article 5 applying to all the territory that he claims as his own while the conflict remains ongoing. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry then released a statement about how their country won’t accept any alternative to NATO membership. The Kremlin predictably described this demand as unacceptable. This coincided with NATO Secretary General Rutte clarifying that his bloc’s focus right now is on arming Ukraine, which corroborated reports from Le Monde that several members such as Hungary, Germany, and even the US oppose Ukraine joining at this time. The larger context concerns Putin finally climbing the escalation ladder after authorizing the historic use of the hypersonic medium-range MIRV-capable Oreshnik missile in combat after the US let Ukraine use its ATACMS inside of Russia’s pre-2014 territory. Nevertheless, what’s lost amidst the latest news about Zelensky’s flip-flop on ceasefire terms is the fact that this is actually just a faux concession since there isn’t any chance that he’ll capture all of his country’s lost territory, plus he’s still demanding NATO membership, which is at the root of this conflict. At the same time, Ukraine is already arguably a de facto member of NATO after clinching a spree of security guarantees with many of its members over the past year, which resemble Article 5 in spirit. About that, this clause is popularly misportrayed as obligating countries to dispatch troops in support of allies that are under attack, though it only actually obligates them to provide whatever support they deem necessary. The security guarantees that it clinched institutionalize those countries’ existing support for Ukraine in the form of arms, intelligence sharing, and other aid, which is essentially the same as Article 5 but without any implied (key word) pressure to dispatch troops like full membership carries. So long as these agreements remain in force, then freezing the conflict even without Ukraine formally joining NATO would still represent Russia’s acceptance of its de facto membership as explained, though it’ll be very difficult for Russia to get Ukraine to terminate these pacts and for its partners to accept that. Germany’s and the UK’s allow for termination within six months of notification without any strings attached, while Poland’s the US’ specify that ongoing and implementing agreements will remain in force. Per the first, “The termination will not affect the implementation of ongoing activities or projects, which have been decided prior to the date of its termination, unless Ukraine and Poland decide otherwise”, while the second states that “any implementing agreement or arrangement entered into between the Parties consistent with the terms of this Agreement shall continue to remain in effect under its own terms, unless otherwise specified in the terms of the specific implementing agreement or arrangement.” In other words, even in the unlikely event that Russia coerces Zelensky or whoever his successor might be into terminating these pacts, Poland and the US might still unilaterally implement parts of them per their legal interpretations. This could hypothetically take the form of them carving out a proxy state in Western Ukraine on national security pretexts in order to prevent the deployment of Russian troops on NATO’s borders if the national government somehow falls under the Kremlin’s influence. Granted, they’d have to have the political will to actually deploy troops to the country and it’s unclear whether they’d be willing to risk World War III over this if the Kremlin signaled that it has the political will to strike those of their troops that might officially enter Ukraine, but it still can’t be ruled out. Accordingly, most emerging scenarios of this conflict’s endgame lean towards Ukraine’s security guarantees with NATO remaining in effect, thus amounting to its continued de facto membership. The only way in which this can be avoided is if Russia achieves a military breakthrough that enables it to coerce Zelensky or whoever his successor might be into terminating these pacts and the West (chiefly the US and Poland) is either deterred from staging a conventional military intervention, retreats under Russian attack if they go through with it, or are decisively defeated there in a hot war that somehow doesn’t go nuclear. This sequence of events is unlikely to unfold barring some unforeseen development. Accordingly, even if Russia achieves its four maximalist aims of restoring Ukraine’s constitutional neutrality, demilitarizing that country, denazifying it, and having Kiev recognize the loss of its five former regions, Ukraine will still remain a de facto member of NATO if these security guarantees remain in force. Zelensky therefore isn’t conceding anything significant by flip-flopping on ceasefire terms. Russia will either accept this new military-strategic reality or it’ll have to resort to brinksmanship to try to change it. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 09:20

— Global Food Prices Hit 19-Month High As Upward Momentum Sparks Fears Of Stickiness

 

at 12/7/24 6:45am

Global Food Prices Hit 19-Month High As Upward Momentum Sparks Fears Of Stickiness The global benchmark for food commodity prices rose in November, reaching its highest level since April 2023. The increase was driven primarily by a surge in vegetable oil prices. What's particularly concerning is that global food prices have resumed an upward trajectory this year, climbing steadily since the first quarter. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of globally traded foods, averaged 127.5 in November—up 5.7% from a year ago but still 20.4% below its record high in March 2022. The biggest driver of the overall index was the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index, which jumped 7.5% in November versus October. This marked its second notable increase in two months and a 32% rise compared to the same month one year ago While the FAO Dairy Price Index moved marginally higher, the other sub-indexes posted declines in November. Here's the breakdown of all FAO sub-indexes: The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 7.5 percent in November from October, marking its second large increase in two months and 32 percent higher than its year-earlier level. Global palm oil prices climbed further amid concerns about lower-than-expected output due to excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia. World soyoil prices rose on global import demand, while rapeseed and sunflower oil quotations increased as tightening global supply prospects affected their respective markets. The FAO Dairy Price Index maintained its upward trajectory in November, increasing by 0.6 percent from October, driven by rebounding global import demand for whole milk powder. Butter prices reached a new record level amid strong demand and tight inventories in Western Europe, while cheese prices rose due to limited export availabilities. The other sub-indexes posted declines in November. The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped by 2.7 percent, down 8.0 percent below a year earlier. Global wheat prices declined due to weaker international import demand and increased supplies from the ongoing harvests in the Southern Hemisphere. World maize prices remained stable as strong domestic demand in Brazil and Mexico's demand for supplies from the United States of America were offset by favorable weather in South America, reduced demand for Ukrainian supplies and seasonal pressure from the ongoing U.S. harvest. The FAO All-Rice Price Index declined by 4.0 percent in November, driven by increased market competition, harvest pressures and currency fluctuations. The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 2.4 percent from October, impacted by the start of the crushing season in India and Thailand and eased concerns over next year's sugarcane crop prospects in Brazil, where recent rains have improved soil moisture. The FAO Meat Price Index decreased by 0.8 percent in November, due mainly to lower quotations for pig meat in the European Union, reflecting abundant supplies and persistently subdued global and domestic demand. World ovine and poultry meat prices fell slightly, while international bovine meat quotations remained stable, with higher Brazilian export prices offset by lower Australia prices. Readers have been well-informed this year about global food inflation re-accelerating. We said in June... This was followed by a big jump in global food prices in September.  Global Food Prices Jump Most In 18 Months As Supermarket Inflation Storm Worsens https://t.co/zJgI3QvqBZ — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2024 Global food prices hitting 19-month highs in November is momentum going in the wrong direction for consumers. This also shows how food prices are very sticky. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 08:45

— Europe's Industry Set To Suffer As Natural Gas Prices Surge

 

at 12/7/24 6:10am

Europe's Industry Set To Suffer As Natural Gas Prices Surge Authored by Svetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, Europe’s industry is set to lose further competitiveness as high energy prices, rising natural gas prices, and concerns about gas supply this winter are increasing uncertainty about factory utilization amid rising costs. European benchmark natural gas prices are hovering around a one-year high hit last month as cold snaps in November dashed hopes and prayers of a third relatively mild winter in a row. In recent weeks, Europe has been depleting its natural gas stocks at the fastest pace since 2016 as demand has increased with the colder temperatures. This adds to the looming end of Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 and growing competition for spot LNG supply with Asia for winter demand. As a result, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, jumped last month to a 2024 high and continued to rise in early December, boosting power prices across Europe and raising energy costs for businesses. This winter could inflict more pain on industries relying on natural gas and force curtailments in production, analysts and industry executives have told Reuters. The much higher energy costs in Europe are putting its industries at a disadvantage compared to the U.S., Asia, or the Middle East. For example, the current Dutch hub price is almost five times higher than the benchmark U.S. natural gas price at Henry Hub. The highest spot-based electricity prices in Europe since February 2023 threaten industrial production in key economies and loom large over business sentiment. The rising energy costs threaten major European economies, just as Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter of the year. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, Eurostat’s flash estimate has shown. That was higher than expected as the two top economies, those of Germany and France, outperformed forecasts. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 08:10

— 'Target is Damascus,' Erdogan Hopes 'Smooth March' Toward Toppling Assad

 

at 12/7/24 5:35am

'Target is Damascus,' Erdogan Hopes 'Smooth March' Toward Toppling Assad After Friday prayers in Ankara, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan issued an unexpected statement which for many is tantamount to a full-on admission this his intelligence services are behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's capture of Aleppo, and ongoing blitz south.  "The target is Damascus," he said bluntly. "I would say we hope for this advance to continue without any issues." Thus the president of Turkey has just issued over approval for a jihadist-led regime change operation, which echoes the bloodshed of over a decade ago which began in 2011. Via AFP But then given Turkey is a NATO member state, he quickly sought to put a little distance between himself and the fact that it's a US-designated terrorist group leading the offensive, which is currently threatening central Syria, particularly the strategic city of Homs. "However, while this resistance there with terrorist organizations is continuing, we had made a call to Assad," he continued. It's been well-known that Assad has long rebuffed these overtures, even as other regional states return their ambassadors to Damascus. "These problematic advances continuing as a whole in the region are not in a manner we desire, our heart does not want these. Unfortunately, the region is in a bind," Erdogan continued, without giving further details. Erdogan has just announced he’s being the invasion of Syria which he hopes will go to Damascus. What next from Astana, Russia & Iran?pic.twitter.com/7tOHuskFXY — Syrian Girl ?? (@Partisangirl) December 6, 2024 Turkish forces have for years occupied a northern strip of Syria, northeast of Aleppo, and next to where the US occupation has been maintained. Damascus has long charged Turkey with facilitating a 'jihadi highway' of foreign fighters into sovereign Syrian territory, unleashing hell on the population - including the Kurds (who are hated by Turkey). This is something even US and Western officials have long admitted happened, even in the case of the rise of ISIS. BREAKING- Erdogan says he hopes Syrian rebels’ march to Homs and Damascus will continue without any accidents and troubles. “We had called Assad. We said, let's determine the future of Syria together. We did not receive a positive response.”pic.twitter.com/zy5cqE37Bg — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 6, 2024 Indeed the so-called Astana deal and process appears to be in complete shambles, already a thing of the past, as Russian and Syrian warplanes are struggling to bomb the numerous Turkish proxies making their way south on a central highway. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 07:35

— Europe's Defense Dilemma

 

at 12/7/24 5:00am

Europe's Defense Dilemma By Stefan Koopman, senior macro strategist at Rabobank First 100 Days Franklin Roosevelt was the first to mark the symbolic importance of “the first 100 days”, reflecting on his early progress toward the New Deal. In the EU’s case, the first 100 days of a new administration often define the agenda as well. The focus is now fully on competitiveness through strategic autonomy – following up on the recent the Letta and Draghi reports. On defense, the urgency is evident. The escalating risk environment has pushed European nations to increase defense budgets after decades of underinvestment. However, bridging the gap will take years. Commission President Von der Leyen estimated that Europe needs EUR 500bn in extra defense investment just to catch up. And beyond sheer spending, the EU also wants to pursue efficiencies: greater coordination on what this money will be spent on, while also addressing the highly fragmented and national European defense industry. Against this backdrop, the Financial Times reports that EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius has proposed a joint borrowing mechanism for military spending. This plan would help finance the bloc’s EUR 500bn target. However, there’s less to it than the headlines suggest. While the proposal helps to streamline funding, its scope and impact may disappoint. The mechanism merely enables and frontloads borrowing, while the funds must still be repaid by individual member states. It neither provides grants, nor does it guarantee EUR 500bn in additional spending, undercutting the headline’s ambition. Structurally, the proposal faces familiar hurdles. Any joint borrowing initiative would likely encounter resistance from fiscally conservative states, even though this setup seems to revolve around a coalition of the willing and could also include non-EU countries, such as the UK. Still, unanimity remains a significant challenge, as it will likely mean that each disbursement needs to be approved by national parliaments, including the Bundestag. This echoes previous issues with EU-wide ‘borrow-to-lend’-schemes such as the EFSF and the ESM. There’s also the strategic challenge. Coordinating cross-border defence projects requires shared priorities and operational alignment, which the EU often struggles with. While discussions on project financing may foster some coordination, national interests could still dominate as long as the fund can’t provide grants. If the fund only reduces borrowing costs for some member states but still adds to all member states’ own debt levels, countries will prioritize their own spending choices. Meanwhile, as Kubilius floated his trial balloon, his boss Von der Leyen traveled to Uruguay. Reports indicate that she is set to finalize the EU-Mercosur trade deal today. This would mark the EU’s largest trade agreement in terms of population and trade volume. The agreement, 25 years in the making, appears poised for completion just two days after the collapse of the French government, giving Von der Leyen a strategic moment to bypass France’s long-standing objections. France remains firmly opposed to the deal and is actively seeking to form a blocking minority to prevent its ratification, despite the new market opportunities it offers Europe at a time when US President-elect Donald Trump is threatening a 10% tariff on EU goods. Additionally, the EU cannot pursue its strategy of de-risking and diversifying away from China without opening new markets in other economies. In this context, an EU-Mercosur deal represents the EU’s best opportunity to align the continent with its own regulatory framework rather than China’s. Elsewhere, OPEC+ has once again delayed the revival of its oil production, marking the third deferral as crude prices struggle amid a looming surplus. This latest delay pushes the return of the halted 2.2 million barrels to September 2026, a full year later than initially planned when the roadmap was announced in June. This move underscores how much weaker the oil market has turned out to be compared to OPEC+'s initial expectations. The decision to add some barrels in the first half of next year has been perceived as mildly bearish, with the first Brent contract now hovering at USD 71.8/bbl. Despite this, the market remains rangebound, with crude prices trading well within the 6-dollar band seen since mid-October. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/07/2024 - 07:00

— Is World War III Already Here?

 

at 12/6/24 9:25pm

Is World War III Already Here? Authored by Jay Solomon via The FP.com, The 'Axis of Upheaval' is on the march—and the U.S. must figure out how to respond. If it feels like the world is on fire right now, that's because it is. From Ukraine to Syria to the Korean Peninsula, a widening array of conflicts is raising questions among defense experts: Is it 1914 again? 1939? Has World War III already started and we're just now figuring it out? For retired Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, who served as Donald Trump's second national security adviser from 2017–2018, the answer is clear. "I think we're on the cusp of a world war," McMaster told The Free Press. "There's an economic war going on. There are real wars going on in Europe and across the Middle East, and there's a looming war in the Pacific. And I think the only way to prevent these wars from cascading further is to convince these adversaries they can't accomplish their objectives through the use of force." That won't be easy. Consider the facts: In Ukraine, thousands of North Korean soldiers have recently joined Russian ground troops to bolster President Vladimir Putin's invasion of the country. Meanwhile, Russia has opened up a new front in the war by entering the northeast Kharkiv region, as it continues to assault Ukraine's cities and block its ports. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon that forced terror group Hezbollah to retreat from Israel's northern border is showing signs of unraveling. Meanwhile, the Jewish state is still fighting a war in the Gaza Strip, where around 60 Israeli and U.S. hostages remain. And last month, Israel's air force destroyed much of Iran's air defense systems, leaving Tehran's nuclear facilities exposed to future attacks. Rebels in Syria have recently seized key areas of the country that had been controlled for years by dictator Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers. Now that these insurgents have taken Aleppo, they are vowing to march on Damascus. In the Baltic Sea, investigators suspect a Chinese ship of sabotaging critical underwater data cables that linked NATO states. Concerns about CCP aggression are mounting amid an emerging consensus in Washington that China would defeat the U.S. in a Pacific war, largely due to Beijing's naval superiority. And on Tuesday, South Korea's president briefly declared martial law, alleging he needed to fend off a North Korean–backed coup led by the opposition party. Massive protests caused him to back down, and he is now facing impeachment proceedings. These wars, rebellions, and spy tales may appear disconnected. But in reality, they all point to a widening global conflict that is pitting the U.S. and its allies against China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—nations all fixated on toppling the West. Strategists have even come up with catchy nicknames for this anti-American coalition, dubbing the bloc the "Axis of Aggressors" or the "Axis of Upheaval." Philip Zelikow, who served as executive director of the 9/11 Commission and counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from 2005 to 2007, is among those who think these conflicts are related. "I think there is a serious possibility of what I call worldwide warfare"—meaning a world war that is not as coordinated as past global conflagrations. "It's not hard to see one of these conflicts crossing over into another." As Trump prepares to enter office next month, his primary foreign policy task should be to prevent an actual full-blown World War III, sources told The Free Press—or to stop it from metastasizing if it's already here. To do this, the president-elect will have to fortify alliances with NATO, South Korea, and Japan—partnerships Trump has already shown he's skeptical of. And he will need to stare down a number of American adversaries, including Putin, Chinese president Xi Jinping, and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un—a despot for whom Trump has expressed both scorn and admiration. Police guard the National Assembly building in Seoul, South Korea, on December 4, 2024. (Jintak Han via Getty Images) At the same time, Trump benefits from his willingness to break from past U.S. policies and institutions that have helped foment these current conflicts. This includes a defense industry that doesn't produce the right weapons to compete with China or enough munitions to arm Ukraine. Defense strategists in previous U.S. administrations have been blind to the Axis of Aggressors' moves to expand their global power, sources told me—placing too much faith in global institutions, such as the United Nations, that were incapable of checking them. Trump, with his nontraditional advisers such as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, could potentially revolutionize the way the U.S. builds and projects power, sources told me. SpaceX CEO Musk, in particular, could marry America's military establishment with Silicon Valley's start-up culture to produce, at scale, the types of smart airplanes, drones, and submarines needed to deter Washington's enemies, they said. But Trump's desire to shake up Washington and dismantle many of its national security institutions comes with enormous risk. The disruption of the Pentagon, State Department, and FBI could make the U.S. and its allies more vulnerable if these institutions become inoperable or less efficient, current and former officials told The Free Press. "What he's gonna need is some agenda to bring the world back together after he pulls things apart," said David Asher, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, who oversaw U.S. government operations against Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran in the George W. Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations. The threat of a widening global conflict is being driven by factors reminiscent of events before the start of World War I, sources told me. This includes the breakdown in alliances and trading systems and the arrival of disruptive technologies like airplanes, telephones, and mechanized weapons. Today, there is no longer a consensus that free trade will bring countries closer together and forestall future wars. And the Covid-19 pandemic revealed the dangers of reliance on China for medical supplies. Trump's threats to slap high tariffs on China and other countries also raise the specter of greater conflict. "What you learn when you study economic history is that long cycles do end and when they do, they end with war," said Asher, who's worked on Wall Street and said he has recently briefed financial institutions on the threat of a global conflict. A rocket launcher fires against Syrian regime forces in Hama, Syria, on December 4, 2024. (Bakr Al Kassem via Getty Images) Both McMaster and Zelikow said that the Syrian civil war that started nearly 15 years ago should have been a major wake-up call to the U.S., Europe, and NATO. The Obama administration tried to oust al-Assad through diplomacy and talks that included Russia and Iran, the strongman's primary patrons. But then the U.S. and Europe were blindsided in 2015 when Moscow and Tehran propped up al-Assad with both air and ground troops. "We started talking about great power rivalry and all of that, but we didn't really do anything to arrest these trends," said Zelikow, who's now a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. This Syrian playbook can now be seen in Ukraine. Iran, North Korea, and China have all been supplying weaponry or technologies to Russia, while Iranian-backed Houthi fighters are now reported to be on the Ukrainian battlefield alongside North Korean troops. The war in the Middle East, sparked by Hamas's invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, has also attracted this broader axis. The Houthis, in support of Hamas, have been attacking international ships in a critical transit strait of the Red Sea. And they've been getting guidance from both Tehran and Moscow, according to current and former U.S. officials. On the north side of the strait, an Iranian general is "directing the Houthis using Russian intelligence," McMaster told The Free Press. On the south side, "you have an Iranian surveillance ship. And you have a Chinese [naval] port, you know? I mean, that's not by mistake." How will the Trump administration confront this emboldened axis? A significant divide among foreign policy strategists may prove difficult to bridge. In one corner are hawks and traditional Republican conservatives—such as incoming National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, and UN Ambassador designee Elise Stefanik—who have called for a muscular defense of Pax Americana. They're expected to press Trump to continue arming Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and even amp up our military support to preserve the Western order. A Ukrainian soldier fires a machine gun at Russian drones on November 29, 2024, in Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine. (Maksym Kishka via Getty Images) On the opposing side is an isolationist wing reflected in the public musings of Trump's eldest son, Don Jr., who tweeted on November 17 about the Biden administration's decision to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine: The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives. Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles! Trump's vice president J.D. Vance, and his advisers, including Tucker Carlson to Tulsi Gabbard, also believe U.S. military overreach led to catastrophic U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and needless Western provocations of Putin that sparked his invasion of Ukraine. They argue that stepping back, rather than expanding, is the key to global peace. Some Trump confidantes told The Free Press they've been studying U.S. policies that led up to the past two world worlds as guidance for today. They have concluded that Washington was too lenient on Hitler's Germany leading into World War II, but too committed to European allies in the early 1900s ahead of World War I. And they believe Trump will need to strike a balance between these two postures. "I think you have to learn the lessons of both wars," Peter Thiel, the tech investor and close Trump ally, told The Free Press last month. "You can't have excessive appeasement, and you also can't go sleepwalking into Armageddon. In a way, they're opposite lessons." *    *    *  Jay Solomon is an investigative reporter for The Free Press and author of The Iran Wars. Follow him on X at @FPJaySolomon and read his piece, "Inside the Battle over Trump's Foreign Policy." Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 23:25

— Mexican Officials Make Record Fentanyl Seizure Days After Trump Tariff Warning

 

at 12/6/24 9:00pm

Mexican Officials Make Record Fentanyl Seizure Days After Trump Tariff Warning By Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times Mexican security forces said on Dec. 4 that they had made the largest fentanyl seizure in the country’s history, impounding 1,100 kilograms (1.2 tons) of the synthetic opioid in the state of Sinaloa. Mexico’s top security official, Omar García Harfuch, said in a statement that more than a ton of fentanyl was seized by officials in Sinaloa state. Several guns were also seized, and two men were arrested, he said. “This is an investigation that has been going on for a long time, and yesterday, it gave these results,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at a press conference on Dec. 4, referring to the fentanyl seizures. Violence has worsened recently in Sinaloa, where factions of the Sinaloa Cartel have been engaged in bitter fighting that flared after the capture of kingpin Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada in July. “These actions will continue until the violence in the state of Sinaloa decreases,” Harfuch said. Sinaloa is home to the powerful drug cartel that bears the same name and was formerly headed by longtime drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who is currently incarcerated at the ADX Florence federal prison in Colorado. Security forces found the fentanyl at two properties in the municipality of Ahome after intelligence work and tip-offs from the public led them to investigate there. In one building, law enforcement found 800 kilograms (1,763 pounds) of fentanyl, some precursor chemicals, and four vehicles. In the other, they discovered 11 packages totaling about 300 kg (660 pounds) of fentanyl, as well as precursors, scales, and industrial mixers. Former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who handed over power to Sheinbaum in October, repeatedly denied that Mexico was a center for the production of fentanyl despite significant evidence to the contrary. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump recently threatened to levy a 25 percent tariff against Mexico and Canada if either country didn’t do enough to curb illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking into the United States. His warning prompted a phone conversation with Sheinbaum, with the Mexican president later saying that caravans of migrants will be stopped before they reach the U.S.–Mexico border. However, she denied Trump’s claim last week that the Mexican border was closed down. This week, activists and a Mexican agency said a migrant caravan heading north was dissolved. The Mexican National Migration Institute denied claims that the agency used deceptive tactics and said it had not received “any complaints” from members of the caravan. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, before several top Canadian officials assured reporters that the country would improve its border security with the United States. Continue reading at the Epoch Times Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 23:00

— Atlanta Remains The World's Busiest Airport

 

at 12/6/24 8:35pm

Atlanta Remains The World's Busiest Airport The airports with the highest number of embarking and disembarking passengers in 2023 have largely regained their pre-pandemic momentum, with Istanbul, Denver and Dallas-Fort Worth climbing 21, 10 and seven spots, respectively, to their current ranks. Four of the eight airports in the top list can be found in the United States. As Statista's Florian Zandt reports, according to data released by industry association Airports Council International (ACI) in July 2024, Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson was and remains the airport with the highest volume of passenger traffic. The airport served 105 million passengers in the past year, down five percent compared to 2019 figures. Overall passenger figures, however, are still marginally below their 2019 level. You will find more infographics at Statista ACI analysts saw 2023 passenger levels at 94.3 percent of the pre-pandemic year 2019, with a projection based on current trends putting passenger numbers at 104 percent for 2024 and 129 percent for 2029. In total, the ACI estimates a global volume of 8.7 billion passengers for 2023, up from 6.7 billion in 2022, with a domestic flight share of 59 percent. By 2025, the passenger volume is expected to cross the ten billion mark. Other sources utilizing different methodologies paint a more conservative picture, even though the basic trend line shows a similar development. The airline interest group International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated 4.4 billion scheduled passengers for 2023 in their December 2024 factsheet, with 2024 figures rising by around 500 million to roughly five billion. According to Kalliopi Lazari, Senior Communications Specialist at the IATA, the forecast "comprises total traffic, both domestic and international, and includes connecting traffic". Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 22:35

— Canadian Government Wants To Send Guns It Just Banned To Ukraine

 

at 12/6/24 8:10pm

Canadian Government Wants To Send Guns It Just Banned To Ukraine Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, The Canadian government announced on Thursday that it was prohibiting its citizens from owning another 324 types of firearms and is working to send them to Ukraine. "As part of its comprehensive approach, on December 5, 2024, the Government announced the prohibition of more military-style assault-style firearms," Canada’s Public Safety Department said in a press release.  "Amendments to the Classification Regulations have resulted in the prohibition of 104 families of firearms, encompassing 324 unique makes and models," it added. Canadians who own the newly banned guns have an amnesty until October 30, 2025, and during that time, the government will implement a buy-back program. Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said the government is in talks with Ukraine about sending them the firearms. "We’ve been working very closely with our friends in Ukraine to ensure that weapons that were intended to be used in combat, could be made available to them," Blair said. "The Department of National Defence will begin working with the Canadian companies that have weapons that Ukraine needs and which are already eligible for the assault-style firearm compensation program, in order to get these weapons out of Canada, and into the hands of the Ukrainians," Blair added. Historically, Ukraine has had one of the largest black markets for weapons, and there has been very little oversight when it comes to Western military aid to the country. Not a Babylon Bee headline despite all appearances...  NEW - Canada's leftist government bans 324 more types of firearms and proposes donating these guns to Ukraine.pic.twitter.com/p8O9plt57K — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 6, 2024 The Pentagon’s inspector general said in a report last year that some Western-provided weapons had been stolen by criminals, volunteer fighters, and arms traffickers. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 22:10

— Feds Accuse HelloFresh Of Employing Migrant Kids At Factory In Sanctuary State Illinois

 

at 12/6/24 7:45pm

Feds Accuse HelloFresh Of Employing Migrant Kids At Factory In Sanctuary State Illinois German meal-kit company HelloFresh, the largest meal-kit provider in the US, faces fresh accusations from the US Department of Labor of employing migrant children at a factory located in the sanctuary state of Illinois. ABC News has learned that federal investigators with the Labor Department are looking into allegations of migrant children working at HelloFresh's cooking and packaging facility in Aurora, Illinois.  Cristobal Cavazos, the executive director for Immigrant Solidarity, a migrant rights advocacy group that first reported the incident to the labor agency, told ABC that at least six teenagers from Guatemala were found working night shifts at the factory.  "They're minors working dangerous jobs," Cavazos said.  The labor agency is also investigating Midway Staffing, an agency that hires migrants, for possibly violating federal child labor rules, according to documents obtained by ABC. "We were deeply troubled to learn of the allegations made against a former temporary staffing agency," a spokesperson for HelloFresh told ABC in a statement, adding, "As soon as we learned of these allegations, we immediately terminated the relationship." Even though the hiring of migrant children to pack meal kits for US consumers may have been facilitated through a staffing company, HelloFresh is a partner of the Tent Partnership for Refugees. Tent is an advisory nonprofit that mega-corporations use to work with resettlement agencies, staffing agencies, and other nonprofits, to source cheap migrant labor. You heard that correctly, this is not 'America First' - this is globalist open borders of cheap labor first. For some context, Tyson Foods partnered with Tent for cheaper migrant labor, and as of March, the meat packer boasted about employing 42,000 migrants in its US 120,000 workforce.  "We would like to employ another 42,000 if we could find them," Garrett Dolan, who leads Tyson's efforts to eliminate employment barriers, told Bloomberg in March.  Of course, let's not forget that Illinois Governor JB Pritzker signed legislation in 2021 that "expands protections for immigrant and refugee communities and further establishes Illinois as the most welcoming state in the nation."  Migrant children working in factories in a sanctuary state... Guess who made that possible...  Staffing companies rounding up migrants like cattle and supplying them to mega food factories is a national phenomenon. It's been observed in Springfield, Ohio and Charleroi, Pennsylvania and cities in Colorado, among many other places. Union Makes Shock Claim: Colorado Meat Factory Involved In "Mgmt-Led Human Trafficking" Of Haitians "Blow Your Mind": Ex-WSJ Journo Uncovers Hub Of An Alleged Migrant Trafficking Network In Springfield, Ohio "He's Taking My People": Alleged Murder-For-Hire Plot In Charleroi Reveals Migrant Labor Mules It's a national national phenomenon.  US Map Shows Potential Areas Of Migrant 'Great Job Replacement' https://t.co/L0IfntWwmK — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 19, 2024 Last month, incoming "border czar," Tom Homan, told "Fox & Friends" hosts that "Public safety threats and national security threats will be the priority...they pose the most danger to this country."  Homan said, "Where do we find most victims of sex trafficking and forced labor trafficking? At worksites..."  Homan's comment about the potential for large-scale worksite raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents next year reminded us of a note we shared with readers in March titled "How Shadowy Network Of NGOs Supplies Mega-Corporations With Migrants To Exploit Cheap Labor." Lining America's food supply chain with unvetted migrants is a national security threat on so many levels.  More companies will be exposed next year for employing illegals and even children. Shame on corporate America and Democrats who made this all possibly through open borders and a complex network of NGOs funded by you, the taxpayer. In return, the American people received armed and extremely dangerous Venezuelan prison gang members running amok nationwide.  There's a very simple solution: stop purchasing food from mega-corporations that heavily rely on migrants and instead buy from mom-and-pop farmers—or even the Amish.  Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 21:45

— Los Angeles Council Approves 'Sanctuary City' Ordinance To Protect Illegal Immigrants

 

at 12/6/24 7:20pm

Los Angeles Council Approves 'Sanctuary City' Ordinance To Protect Illegal Immigrants Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Los Angeles City Council on Dec. 4 formally approved a “sanctuary city” ordinance, which will prohibit resources or personnel from assisting with federal enforcement of immigration laws. The council voted 12–0 in favor of the ordinance with an urgency clause, meaning it could go into effect within 10 days of being signed by Mayor Karen Bass. People in the audience hold up signs as the Los Angeles City Council considers a "sanctuary city" ordinance during a meeting at City Hall in Los Angeles on Nov. 19, 2024. Etienne Laurent/AFP via Getty Images The council’s actions come after President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he’s prepared to declare a national emergency to initiate mass deportations. On Nov. 19, the council voted unanimously to move forward with the proposed ordinance. Because amendments were made to the language, however, it was brought up for a second vote. In particular, the council adopted changes to the ordinance to align it with California’s “sanctuary state” law, Senate Bill 54, the California Values Act of 2017. The council also created an exception whereby the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) is permitted to assist federal immigration officers for cases involving serious offenses. For example, LAPD can communicate with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in cases where an illegal immigrant has been convicted of a violent felony, deported, but then came back to the United States. This procedure is already in line with LAPD practices, and has been used twice since 2018, according to city officials. Elected officials celebrated the new ordinance as codifying protections for immigrants residing in the country illegally and prohibiting the sharing of data—direct or indirect—with federal immigration authorities. The mayor has said she supports the measure. “This moment demands urgency,” Bass said in a statement last month. “Immigrant protections make our communities stronger and our city better.” The ordinance enshrines some policies put into place by former Mayor Eric Garcetti during the first Trump presidency. “We have been a pro-immigrant city for a number of years, we know that there is a target on our back from this president-elect, and what we are doing here is we are hardening our defenses,” Councilman Bob Blumenfield said on Nov. 19 during a discussion of the ordinance. “We are codifying our good policies on protecting immigrants.” A man speaks in support of a proposed "sanctuary city" ordinance during a meeting at City Hall in Los Angeles on Nov. 19, 2024. Etienne Laurent/AFP via Getty Images The city first voted to approve the ordinance just two weeks after Trump won the 2024 presidential election on the back of a campaign in which he highlighted border security and deporting those without legal status in the United States as key parts of his platform. “We’re going to send a very clear message that the city of Los Angeles will not cooperate with ICE in any way,” Councilman Hugo Soto-Martinez said, referring to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. “We want people to feel protected and be able to have faith in their government and that women can report domestic violence, crimes.” The Los Angeles County Republican Party criticized the sanctuary city ordinance, saying, “A country without secure borders isn’t a country at all.” “Whether drunk driving, robbery, sexual violence, assault or murder, none of those should go unpunished. Perpetrators should definitely not be protected by the largesse taken from hard-working taxpayers.” the party wrote in a statement posted on social media. Los Angeles has historically followed specific policies protecting illegal immigrants. For instance, the LAPD adheres to Special Order 40, implemented in 1979, mandating that officers do not inquire about immigration status or make arrests over an immigrant’s legal status. Moreover, the city’s new police chief, Jim McDonnell, has pledged to not help with deportations or determining people’s immigration status. The Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education in November adopted a resolution reaffirming its status as a “sanctuary district.” In addition, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors recently approved a motion to create a task force to track the impact of evolving federal immigration policies. The board will also consider creating a Department of Immigration Affairs. Upon passing the new ordinance, Los Angeles will join more than a dozen cities across the United States with similar provisions. The Associated Press and City News Service contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 21:20

— Taylor Swift Remains The Queen Of Spotify

 

at 12/6/24 6:55pm

Taylor Swift Remains The Queen Of Spotify Spotify unleashed its annual Spotify Wrapped playlist on Wednesday, bringing subscribers around the world a run-down of their most played songs and artists. Data shows that pop queen Taylor Swift has once more topped the global charts as the most streamed artist this year, after having come first in 2023 and second in 2022. The Weeknd comes in second place worldwide and in first place as the most streamed male artist. The rap/R&B singer is followed by Bad Bunny, who has featured in the top three positions for the past three years. As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, the rap/R&B genre as well as pop tend to perform well with a global audience. Rounding off the top ten in 2024 are Peso Pluma, Kanye West, Ariana Grande and Feid. You will find more infographics at Statista   The top five globally streamed songs this year are Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso, followed by Benson Boone’s Beautiful Things, Billie Eilish’s Birds of a Feather, Floyy Menor and Cris Mj’s Gata Only and Teddy Swims’ Lose Control. Pop stars to have risen to the top of the charts in 2024 include the likes of Chappell Roan, Shaboozey and the aforementioned Sabrina Carpenter. So, how did Spotify Wrapped come to be? In 2016, Spotify renamed its “Year In Music” feature with the title “Spotify Wrapped” and also launched the “Your Top Songs” playlist. In 2021, the music streaming platform then introduced videos from fans’ favorite artists as well as the “Audio Aura” feature to show “top music moods”. In 2023, Spotify Wrapped showed listeners which part of the world listened to music most similar to them, while in 2024, the theme focuses on listeners’ “Music Evolution”. This latest edition nods to this year’s successful collaborations between artists such as Billie Eilish and Charlie xcx, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars and Beyoncé and Miley Cyrus, with the company explaining that it is about celebrating how “unexpected genres emerge and merge, timeless influences meet fresh ideas, and what once was niche now shapes pop culture.” Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 20:55

— These Upstart Classes Hold A Woeful Lack Of Civics Education To Be Self-Evident

 

at 12/6/24 6:30pm

These Upstart Classes Hold A Woeful Lack Of Civics Education To Be Self-Evident Authored by John Murawski via RealClearEducation, As the autumn sun warms the historic campus outside, a professor specializing in ancient and modern political philosophy guides undergraduate students through the seemingly ruthless nuances of Machiavelli’s 16th-century philosophy of morals.  In another class, a professor specializing in political theory offers students a guided tour of the early American republic, as seen through the enlightened eyes of French political philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville.  And a professor of rhetoric, who moonlights as a conservative political consultant in national races, diagrams the components of a bulletproof argument on a blackboard as he preps students for an upcoming class debate on the pros and cons of universal basic income.  These vignettes may seem unexceptional, but they are at the center of an ambitious movement to reform what many see as the left-wing capture of America’s leading universities. The classes taught this fall in the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s newly launched academic experiment, the School of Civic Life and Leadership (SCiLL), revive approaches and values that were once accepted as essential to shaping informed and virtuous citizens in a liberal democracy, but are now regarded with deep suspicion by many academics: the classical liberal arts, the great books, Western Civilization, Socratic dialogue, civil discourse. More than 100 civics programs have arisen in the past quarter-century in academia – emphasizing everything from the Great Books and the Western canon to free markets and entrepreneurship. But UNC’s program is part of a new wave that’s on a wholly different scale in scholarly ambition and political heft. In less than a decade, conservative reformers have created 13 relatively large civics centers at eight public universities – including five in Ohio alone – designed to operate autonomously, similar to law schools or business schools, with their own deans, their own majors, sometimes their own Ph.D. programs, and in a few cases, their own designated buildings.  Much of the mainstream media coverage of this movement has focused on criticism from the educational establishment – which commonly derides them as “freedom schools” and conservative “safe spaces” – because of the circumstances of their creation. Most have been launched by Republican legislatures, fast-tracked by conservative regents, and bankrolled by conservative donors. The civic schools often enjoy a great degree of independence as they are typically granted full control over faculty hiring, promotion, and tenure. The education establishment, accustomed to having sole control over academic programming, casts these developments as a threat to academic freedom. Civics advocates say they must bypass the conventional procedural protocols because the left’s ideological capture of most campuses would make it difficult, if not impossible, to approve these programs.  The classical learning and civics revival has long been associated with Christian private schools at the K-12 level and independent colleges like Hillsdale College, the Michigan private institution that staunchly refuses any federal funding, and the recently launched University of Austin. But the new wave of civics centers, while enthusiastically backed by conservatives, is rejecting the appeal of a cloistered virtue, and instead adapting traditional educational philosophies to operate within existing university cultures.  After a series of faltering attempts to establish a viable liberal arts tradition over a century, the new civics centers are being built with longevity in mind. In some sense, they are the intellectual mirror of the successful effort by leftwing scholars and activists that began in the 1960s to seed departments – in African-American studies, ethnic studies, and women’s studies – that would exert a powerful influence on America’s universities and the broader culture. The 13 civics centers, which are expected to employ several hundred scholars, have been designed to supply the infrastructure – including financial support, academic posts, and professional conferences – to foster the next generation of civics intellectuals and further expand the movement.  Civics pioneer Paul Carrese, founding director of the civics department at Arizona State University who also served as a consultant for UNC’s civics initiative, said he’s in “serious discussions” with faculty and administrators about creating civics centers at public institutions in four more states. Carrese also said there has been renewed interest in civics at elite private universities ever since Stanford University three years ago restored its common core, called Civic, Liberal, and Global Education, including a course in which students read and discuss a mix of canonical texts and contemporary scholars.  Donald Trump’s election could aid the movement, as the president-elect and his supporters are vowing to reclaim universities from "Marxist maniacs," in part by withholding accreditation, freezing federal funding, and taxing endowments, or by mothballing the U.S. Department of Education. As an intellectual movement, civics represents more than a surgical strike against the dominant progressive mindset and hyper-partisanship that define elite campuses. The professors and leaders involved describe civics as nonpartisan, apolitical, and pluralist. They see themselves as leading a revival of the classical liberal tradition that not only rejects social justice advocacy as a university’s prime directive but also challenges academia’s hyper-focus on careerism and vocationalism and pushes back against the academic fetish for arcane sub-specialization within some disciplines.   “It is based on an ancient and powerful set of ideas,” said SCiLL dean Jed Atkins, a classics scholar in Greek and Roman political thought and moral philosophy. “I’m not making any of this up whole cloth. This comes from an established tradition.” Among the movement’s immediate challenges: attracting undergraduates to sign up for civics courses and to major in the discipline. In addition to stock courses on federalism, diplomacy, military history, constitutional rights, and the like, civics schools offer classes that are hip, cool, fun, and philosophical at the same time: explorations of happiness, friendship, immortality, faith, war, espionage, and other perennial themes that could easily be the subject of a Ted Talk.  Some civics professors wade into present-day moral minefields where tenured faculty fear to tread, exposing students to readings and discussions of the most sensitive subjects, like reparations, misgendering, trans athletes, abortion, and polyamory.   Carrese said civics education is maligned as affirmative action for conservatives but should be understood as the restoration of the original charter of the public and private university:  to prepare educated, responsible, engaged citizens.  “Part of the challenge for this movement going forward is to show that although in every single case these programs have been initiated by Red States, they’re not ipso facto a Republican partisan ideological enterprise,” said Carrese, who now consults on strategy for the Jack Miller Center, a suburban Philadelphia nonprofit that provides training and support for civics professors and K-12 teachers.  The Jack Miller Center has provided workshops and programs for more than 1,200 professors, including Carrese and most of the leadership cadre of the 13 civic centers, serving as a kind of networking hub for the movement.  “You can look at who’s been hired, what the courses are, what the enrollment is, what the public speakers programs are,” said Carrese, who is also a professor of moral and political thought in the Arizona civics program.  For Nadège Sirot, a first-year UNC student who plans to major in classics and minor in civics, SCiLL has been a revelation. Her high school experience was marked by “tons of trigger warnings,” the occasional land acknowledgment, and open invitations for students to walk out of class if they felt uncomfortable or offended by the subject. In civics, core knowledge, as understood in the American context, is not presented as just another perspective in a subjective buffet of equally valid options but as the intellectual foundation for all other learning. In the Carolina civics course, Sirot said, the approach is not “Do you agree with Machiavelli?” but rather, “Do you understand what Machiavelli is trying to say? What can this thinker teach us today?” “It’s a teaching method that has worked for centuries,” Sirot said. “And SCiLL is now trying to return to it.” The new civics centers are generously funded, unmistakably ambitious, and already reshaping campus culture. The University of Florida’s Hamilton Center for Classical and Civic Education, which aims to build the nation’s top program in the study of Western Civilization, has 35 tenured faculty, runs about two dozen classes a semester with more than 500 students, and is slated to expand to 60 full-time professors.  The Hamilton Center has recruited professors with pedigrees from the Ivy League, Oxford University, and other marquee institutions to teach such courses as “The Crisis of Liberalism,” “The Origins of Totalitarianism,” “God and Science,” “Utopias and Dystopias,” “Political Violence and Power,” and “Why Spy?” UNC’s SCiLL department is set to expand from three courses this semester to 14 courses next year. Planned offerings include “The Politics of the Bible,” “Science and Society,” and “Lab Coats and Legislatures: Science and Policy.” The school is in the process of developing a residential program on the Chapel Hill campus, modeled on the civil discourse dorm offered at nearby Duke University. In the long term, SCiLL leaders hope to create a semester study program in Washington, D.C.  Notably, the UNC school has already been green-lighted to lead a mandatory free speech session during orientation week next fall for all 4,700 first-year undergraduates – a requirement noteworthy for a university that has recently disbanded diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs.  Sirot’s professor, Dustin Sebell, whose Foundations of Civic Life course covers modern political thinkers and moral philosophers – including Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Marx, and Nietzsche – said that recognizing the immense contributions of the great thinkers stands in stark contrast to the prevailing trend in academe, where it’s often assumed that classic books and ideas are past their expiration date. “The presumption is that the present is the peak – we can look down on the past with contempt and pity,” Sebell said. “It’s a kind of chauvinism, almost a kind of xenophobia.” Civics advocates have hashed out a variety of strategic approaches in a series of articles in the Wall Street Journal, Law & Liberty, and other publications. Some warn against the natural temptation to hire faculty based on political beliefs and wage warfare against the woke machine, and thereby risk becoming rightwing echo chambers and alienating professors and students. “The solution to politicization from the left is not politicization from the right,” wrote Harvard historian James Hankins last year.  Others say that to disrupt the status quo, civics should borrow from the playbook of politicized programs like women’s studies, ethnic studies, African-American studies, and gender studies. These sectarian, advocacy-oriented departments were once upstarts that muscled their way onto campus with boycotts, protests, and sit-ins, and were often treated with indifference or scorn by the Greatest Generation professoriate, but over time, the activist-scholars ended up producing a critical mass of scholarship – on implicit bias, microaggressions, systemic racism, structural oppression, power and privilege – that has proven highly influential in law, medicine, education, government, and corporate management.  “This is a legitimate tactic. It’s how universities work,” wrote two American Enterprise Institute scholars in the WSJ this year in a piece titled “Follow the Left’s Example to Reform Higher Ed.” “They develop ways of thinking that cohere as a discipline, in which students can be trained. They create associations; journals spring up; grants get funded; students get degrees. One generation of faculty acts as mentors to the next.” The objections to civics range from rightwing political meddling to duplication of subjects already taught. Some skeptics go further and say that civics is a nostalgic throwback to a triumphalist, Cold War era scholarship limited by Eurocentrism and cultural myopia that now seem quaint and misguided.  UNC historian Jay Smith, who is president of the North Carolina conference of the American Association of University Professors, said SCiLL is an “invasion” and an “intrusion” on the campus. He acknowledged that the professor bios and course descriptions look solid – in fact, some SCiLL faculty are full-time professors in other UNC departments – but he said he would advise students to pass over SCiLL and instead take a class in the history department or political science department, where they can be sure the curriculum was not created under political pressure. “To me civics is a code word the Right uses,” Smith said. “This is all intended to get students to get focused more on American greatness. Everything that’s special about America. And capitalism, too, in its way. They don’t have ‘capitalism studies’ in their title … but making the world safe for the capitalists is one of the unspoken objectives.”  The critics typically downplay or deny the amply documented grievance that a progressive overrepresentation on campus is stifling viewpoint diversity on campus and creating a climate of censorship and conformity.  Danaya Wright, a law professor at the University of Florida, is deeply suspicious of the legislature dictating a civics program by “a top-down, heavy-handed approach” but acknowledged that the Hamilton Center has hired “outstanding scholars” and is offering legitimate courses in a subject that is worth studying. Her concern is that the civics posture of intellectual humility toward the Western tradition betrays a tendency for sanitizing and mythologizing the past.  She said there are compelling reasons for exposing the moral blindness of the past from the contemporary perspective of social justice advocacy, and even acknowledging today’s perspective as morally superior.   “Don’t we think that people who are woke are actually more evolved?” she posed. “If there is a one-way direction of knowledge in engineering, isn’t becoming more moral and more empathetic – and more aware of the world around you – isn’t that a one-way ratchet, too ?” And one other sore point bears mentioning.  “There’s a little bit of bad feeling because they’re getting a lot of funding,” Wright said, “and these other colleges and departments are not – they’re being starved.” However, some civics courses do expose students to contemporary critiques of the West and of the American project – specifically, theories of power, privilege, and oppression as applied to intersectional identities of race, sex, and gender.  The Institute of American Civics at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville is teaching eight sections of classes this semester, with about 200 students enrolled, said Josh Dunn, the executive director. Dunn said that two of the courses include readings from The New York Times’ 1619 Project, a book-length collection of revisionist essays that characterize the United States as a “slavocracy” and center racism and discrimination as the nation’s core values. The 1619 Project is always paired with readings from critics who assess the project’s omissions and misrepresentations. “To give a true version of American history, you have to expose students to these different perspectives of the debate over these conflicts and over our purpose as a nation,” Dunn said. “You’re doing a disservice to students if you don’t expose them to all these different sides.”  Civics also exposes students to both sides of current, ongoing controversies, a perspective students say they don’t get today. The topics are so radioactive that many professors won’t touch them for fear of offending students or administrators. The issues covered are the alpha-omega of contemporary tripwires and taboos: nonbinary pronouns and misgendering; transgenderism and female athletics; puberty blockers and teenage transitions; biological sex as a social construct; legalizing polyamory; white privilege, reparations, abortion, Israel/Palestine, among others.  These controversies are currently taught in Duke University’s civil discourse program by John Rose, a specialist in Christian ethics who has joined SCiLL and will be teaching the same subjects at UNC this spring. At Duke, Rose’s classes have included visits from prominent scholars directly involved in the controversies – including Harvard economist Roland Fryer (whose research shows that police don’t disproportionately kill black people), Duke economist Peter Arcidiacono (the expert witness for Asian plaintiffs opposing affirmative action in the recent Supreme Court case involving Harvard and UNC), and detransitioner Chloe Cole (who opposes medicalized “gender-affirming care” for minors).  SCiLL’s planned class on Israel and Palestine will take students on a university-funded trip over spring break to visit Israel and the Palestinian territories. That approach is catching on. In May and June, Rose led seminars for university faculty on teaching these polarizing topics in college. To date, 84 professors from 70 colleges have attended these workshops, and some are teaching a version of this class, Rose said.  Addie Geitner, a Duke senior double majoring in economics and public policy, took Rose’s polarization class last spring. She described the class as “a total overhaul of what I was used to – there’s a 50-50 balance of perspectives.”  She said a typical policy class is very one-sided, exposing students to a narrow range of perspectives one might experience listening to NPR: “We focus on issues generally related to equity, and how it’s achieved. And we almost solely focus on what the federal government needs to provide to address those problems, as opposed to exploring any other route.”  Civics is only one example of recent efforts to course-correct academia.  Around the country, faculty have formed faculty free speech alliances, led by the example of Harvard’s Council on Academic Freedom, which opposes enforcing ideological compliance through mandatory “diversity statements” in faculty hiring, counsels faculty on free speech threats, and sponsors public events. The Harvard organization was launched in 2023 by Flynn Cratty, a historian who served as the Council’s founding executive director and has been described by The New York Times as a “prominent Harvard academic”; Cratty has since joined UNC’s School of Civil Life and Leadership. A chief rationale for civics is the ideological monoculture on U.S. campuses. The conservative National Association of Scholars said in a 2017 report that civics has been replaced by the progressive ideal that “a good citizen is a radical activist.”  That claim may be hyperbolic, but studies consistently find that faculty political affiliations skew leftward, usually leaning liberal or leftist 10 to 1, and in some colleges leaning left more than 100 to 1. In a climate of cancel culture, shutdowns, and callouts, the majority of students are hesitant to discuss or ask questions about controversial subjects. Dunn, who directs Tennessee’s civics initiative, is co-author of “Passing on the Right: Conservative Professors in the Progressive University” (2016), a well-received book that describes conservative professors as a "stigmatized minority" on campus who sometimes resort to the coping strategies used by LGBTQ people. According to the Atlantic magazine review: “Many conservative professors are – as they put it – closeted. Some of the people they interviewed explicitly said they identify with the experience of gays and lesbians in having to hide who they are. One tenure-track sociology professor even asked to meet Shields and Dunn in a park a mile away from his university.” Murmurs about civics deficiencies in education aren’t new, as universities continually face pressures to produce marketable graduates, publish cutting-edge research, and compete for federal research funding. According to a recent study by the American Council of Trustees and Alumni, 100% of the top colleges allow students to graduate without taking a single course in American history, and three-fourths of the colleges don’t require students to take any history course at all.  The School of Civic Leadership at the University of Texas in Austin is led by Justin Dyer, who once described himself as “a conservative, straight out of central casting, a pro-life evangelical who is an unapologetic admirer of the American Founding Fathers and the U.S. Constitution.”  Dyer said the center is nonpartisan but does approach the American founding “from a posture of gratitude” and an appreciation of the Western inheritance that produced the U.S. Constitution and the American experiment. “It’s not simply an uncritical exercise,” Dyer said. “We’re not value-neutral or value-free.” The school has eight faculty with tenure or on tenure track and another 13 lecturers and adjuncts, and is legislatively mandated to have at least 20 tenured faculty. It has a budget of $6 million this year from state sources, and private donations and pledges have soared, exceeding $20 million. Top donors include Republican political funder Robert Rowling, a hotel magnate who is ranked 126 on Forbes 400 richest Americans, and Republican contributor Harlan Crow, a real estate magnate whose generous gifts to his friend, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, have been subjects of media coverage.  Rowling’s expectation is that the School of Civic Leadership will become a highly selective and competitive program, attracting world-class faculty and top-performing students.  But right now, the school is regarded with wariness by the university faculty.  “Look, I’m not foolish,” Rowling said. “If you voted among the faculty up or down on the School of Civic Life, they would absolutely say No.” The director of the University of Florida’s Hamilton Center, William Inboden, said the Hamilton Center is animated by an “appreciation for the American founding” and the “uniqueness of the Western tradition. “We see history as more than a simplistic morality tale of the oppressor versus the oppressed,” he said. “You will find more conservative viewpoints on our faculty,” Inboden acknowledged. “That’s not because of a political litmus test, but because we have removed the political litmus test.” The Chronicle of Higher Education recently ran a lengthy, detailed account of how the University of Florida humanities faculty discriminated against students who became involved with the Hamilton Center. One student met with a Hamilton Center official at an off-campus coffee shop, where they wouldn’t be seen. Within the university, some professors regarded university officials who were involved in the Hamilton Center’s creation as “agents of the state.” The university subsequently retaliated by subjecting six professors to an investigation. Ultimately, the probe was dropped after Ken McGurn, a former UF Foundation board chair, got involved. McGurn, a Kamala Harris supporter who has donated or pledged more than $10 million to the university, met several times with Inboden this spring to try to get to the bottom of the Hamilton Center’s purpose and agenda.  In an interview with RealClearInvestigations, McGurn said he has been impressed with the credentials of the Hamilton Center faculty and has received assurances that it’s not a political boondoggle, but he is concerned about an academic unit for which Republicans are “writing the checks.”  “This group that started the Hamilton Center,” McGurn said of state GOP lawmakers, “they went out there banning books. They went out there taking away civil liberties. It’s very suspect, very suspect.” UNC’s School of Civic Life and Leadership has been subject to similar scrutiny. A nonprofit news site, The Assembly, recently ran an exposé about SCiLL, intimating that Jed Atkins’ “vision for the program is becoming clearer.”  The suspicion borders on the irrational when insinuating that Atkins’ scholarly interest in Cicero betrays a fascination with Roman statesmen that is a proclivity of the political right. The article further notes in conspiratorial tones that “Atkins is a Christian whose kids were homeschooled.”   Inger Brodey, SCiLL’s associate dean of faculty development and curriculum, is a UNC professor of English and Comparative Literature.  Brodey shared a draft syllabus for a civics course she plans to teach this spring entitled “Seeking the Good Life.” Reading selections for the class include the Bible, Bhagavad Gita, Aristotle, Nietzsche, the Quran, Confucius, Simone de Beauvoir, C.S. Lewis, and James Baldwin, among others.  Asked if SCiLL is a source of controversy among the professoriate, Brodey replied: “I have people hugging me and thanking me for taking this on, and people who won’t speak to me in the elevator.” John Murawski reports on the intersection of culture and ideas for RealClearInvestigations. He previously covered artificial intelligence for the Wall Street Journal and spent 15 years as a reporter for the News & Observer (Raleigh, NC) writing about health care, energy and business. At RealClear, Murawski reports on how esoteric academic theories on race and gender have been shaping many areas of public life, from K-12 school curricula to workplace policies to the practice of medicine. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/06/2024 - 20:30

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