The Trump administration warned recently that, if progress is not made in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, they could walk away from the talks. On April 18, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say, ‘you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people,’ and we’re going to take a pass.” On May 4, Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press that sometimes he gets close to walking away, but “then positive things happen… So I hope it gets done.”
A flurry of statements from top White House officials suggests that, whether for real or as a negotiating tactic, the Trump administration is getting closer to walking away.
On May 1, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that, though “we’ve gotten closer… The problem is those two positions are still a little far apart.” Signaling the possible change in tack, Rubio then said, “look, we’re not going to give up on it in the sense that we’re not going to be ready to help if we can, but there does come a point where the President has to decide how much more time at the highest levels of our government do you dedicate it.” He then added, “So at some point in time, it either has to be something that can happen or we all need to move on.”
The same day, State Department spokeswoman Tammy K. Bruce made a similar point, using similar words. “We certainly will remain committed to it and will help where we can,” she said, but “we are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings.” She said that Russia and Ukraine would need to suggest “concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end. It’s going to be up to them.”
The highest-level statement came from Vice President JD Vance on Saturday. “It’s going to be up to [Russia and Ukraine] to come to agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict,” he said. “It’s not going to end any time soon…. We got ‘em talkin’. We got ‘em offering peace proposals… I think we’re in a place where they’ve got to say we’re done with the fighting…but only Russia and Ukraine can make that decision. That’s not something even President Trump can do for ‘em.”
On May 7, Vance expanded on his remarks, explaining that “the next big step we’d like to take” is having “the Russians and the Ukrainians… actually agree on some basic guidelines for sitting down and talking to one another.”
For those who have been infuriated by Trump’s “final offer,” which blocked Ukrainian membership in NATO and included formal U.S. recognition of Russian control of Crimea, it may come as a relief that Washington may be about to abdicate its mediating role. But the U.S. walking away may favor Russia, and a slowdown in talks with an accompanying continuation of war is not likely to win Ukraine a better result.
Though it is no longer much discussed in the Western media, Russia continues to advance militarily across the front. The advance is slow, but that is not the point of a war of attrition, and it may even be by design. The Russian advance is eating up Ukrainian troops and weapons faster than it is eating up territory. Some reasonable analysts have recently suggested that the Ukrainian armed forces could collapse in the next half a year to a year.
Eventually, Russia is likely to attain its goals on the battlefield. It will compel Ukraine to agree to the abandonment of their NATO aspirations, the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and territorial concessions. Though Russia would surely prefer to attain these goals diplomatically, failing that, it will attain them nonetheless. Walking away from the negotiating table and continuing to march on the battlefield will cost Ukraine more lives and land without winning a settlement better than the current offer. According to some estimates, Ukraine has already lost three-quarters of a million dead and another three-quarters of a million wounded severely enough that they will not return to the battlefield. There is likely nothing to be gained by stopping or slowing the diplomatic talks.
Further fighting will not purchase a better deal. The current “final offer” on the table denies NATO membership to Ukraine. But NATO was never going to grant membership to Ukraine, and Russia is not going to stop fighting without a guarantee of that. The deal allows Ukraine European Union membership and the ability to pursue its relationship with the West.
The current offer grants American, but not Ukrainian or European, recognition of Russian control of Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently acknowledged that Ukraine lacks the military capability to retake Crimea.
The deal only gives Moscow control over the Russian-controlled parts of the annexed territories. Kyiv would retain parts of the annexed territories that Russia does not control militarily. And it does not mention the limits on the Ukrainian armed forces that Russia had demanded.
Any slowing of whatever momentum the negotiations had gained would translate only into a worsening war and not into an improved settlement for Ukraine. Rather than allow anyone to walk away from the table, it would be best for all sides to get back to working on the American peace plan. The reality of continuing the war is that it will lead only to a worse settlement for Ukraine than the one currently on the table.
Ted Snider is a regular columnist on U.S. foreign policy and history at Antiwar.com and The Libertarian Institute. He is also a frequent contributor to Responsible Statecraft and The American Conservative as well as other outlets. To support his work or for media or virtual presentation requests, contact him at tedsnider@bell.net.
