I.H.T. Op-Ed Contributor
\nBahrain Blowback
\nBy GRAHAM E. FULLER | GLOBAL VIEWPOINT<\/p>\n
Graham E. Fuller, former vice-chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, is adjunct professor of history at Simon Fraser University. His latest book is \u201cA World Without Islam.\u201d
\nPublished: February 16, 2011<\/p>\n
WASHINGTON \u2014 Where\u2019s the next place to blow in the Arab revolution? Candidates are many, but there\u2019s one whose geopolitical impact vastly exceeds its diminutive size \u2014 the island of Bahrain.<\/p>\n
This is a place run by an oppressive and corrupt little regime, long coddled by Washington because the U.S. Navy\u2019s Fifth Fleet is headquartered there. The future of the base is far from secure if the regime falls.<\/p>\n
A few hard facts about the island that should give pause for thought:<\/p>\n
First, Bahrain is a Shiite island. You won\u2019t see it described that way, but it is \u2014 70 percent of the population, more than the percentage of Shiites in Iraq. And like Iraq under Saddam Hussein, these Arab Shiites have been systematically discriminated against, repressed, and denied meaningful roles by a Sunni tribal government determined to maintain its solid grip on the country. The emergence of real democracy, as in Iraq, will push the country over into the Shiite column \u2014 sending shivers down the spines of other Gulf rulers, and especially in Riyadh.<\/p>\n
Appearances are deceiving. Go to Bahrain and on the surface you won\u2019t feel the same heavy hand that dominates so many other Arab authoritarian states. The island is liberal in its social freedoms. Expats feel at home \u2014 you can get a drink, go to nightclubs, go to the beach, party.<\/p>\n
But if you look behind the Western and elite-populated high-rises you\u2019ll encounter the Shiite ghettoes \u2014 poor and neglected, with high unemployment, walls smeared with anti-regime graffiti.<\/p>\n
Free market? Sure, except the regime imports politically neutered laborers from passive, apolitical states that need the money: Filipinos, Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans and other South Asians who won\u2019t make waves or they\u2019re on the next plane out.<\/p>\n
The regime also imports its thugs. The ranks of the police are heavily staffed with expat police who often speak no Arabic, have no attachments to the country and who will beat, jail, torture and shoot Bahraini protestors with impunity.<\/p>\n
Like other Shiite populations, clerics figure heavily among the leaders. But many are liberal and open, reflecting the culturally open character of the island. Most Bahraini Shiites would look to Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq rather than to Iran for religious guidance.<\/p>\n
Typically, however, just like most other tyrants across the region, the al-Khalifa regime in Bahrain will whip up anti-Shiite, anti-Iranian fears to gain Western backing \u2014 and they usually get it. …more<\/a><\/p>\n