There’s a reason the American Right pursues a politics of moral panic. While the irrational and conspiratorial beliefs that accompany this fear-mongering are false, that’s a feature rather than a bug of an authoritarian movement with a primary goal of dominance, power, and control. As it turns out, moral panic – making vulnerable groups the target of people’s fears through lies and stereotypes while rallying around the notion of, say, “protecting the children” – can be a powerful means of reaching that goal.

As the 2024 electoral rematch between Joe Biden and former president/indicted insurrectionist Donald Trump approaches, Republicans are increasingly focused on scapegoating migrants and undocumented immigrants, which endangers not only immigrants (documented or otherwise), but also anyone perceived to “look like” an immigrant.

Of course, Trump has long used racist rhetoric to dehumanise migrants. But at a rally in Ohio on Sunday he escalated his anti-immigrant rhetoric, stating: “In some cases, they’re not people, in my opinion.” He also threatened a “bloodbath” if he loses in 2024 and referred to people imprisoned for their roles in the 6 January insurrection as “hostages.”

But while Republicans clearly want immigration and border security to be the defining issue of 2024’s presidential election, LGBTQ and especially transgender Americans continue to be the target of significant hateful rhetoric and legal persecution by the GOP at state level.

This poisonous vitriol has led to increasingly extreme state laws over the last decade, and now, according to new data, to the erosion of public support for LGBTQ rights.

It was already clear the proliferation of hostile anti-trans rhetoric was having a harmful impact on public opinion (and not only among reliably right-wing demographics). But data from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) has revealed further decline in support for LGBTQ rights among the American public, underscoring how human rights can be fragile in the face of a dedicated, moral-panic-driven assault.

PRRI’s new report contains a number of important and fascinating findings, including that LGBTQ identification varies widely by state (a low of 4% in deep red states like Alabama and South Carolina versus a high of 16% in the far more tolerant state of New Mexico). And also this:

Now, what’s going on with these numbers is almost certainly not a reflection of such stark differences in the LGBTQ population in Republican-controlled states versus Democrat-controlled states, or of actual sharp increases in the LGBTQ population generationally that are oddly concentrated in blue states. Having said that, we do know anecdotally that some LGBTQ Americans have moved from red states to blue states to escape persecution (an option that for many is not feasible).

Instead, these numbers represent a generational shift in values and willingness to self-identify as queer, as well as the relative sense of safety or lack thereof that queer people feel in the different social climates that exist across America.

But some of the report’s other findings indicate that the rights gains made in the 20th and 21st centuries, and the degree of safety younger queer Americans have felt to be out and open, is now at risk. Overall, 76% of Americans support a broad formulation of LGBTQ nondiscrimination protections in housing, employment, and public accommodations. That is, to be sure, a robust majority. However, that number is down four percentage points from 2022.

At the same time, fewer Americans oppose allowing small business owners to discriminate against LGBTQ people than they did previously – a decline from 65% in 2022 to 60% in 2023.

These shifts in a year’s time may not be massive, but they could represent “a canary in the coal mine” according to PRRI’s CEO Melissa Deckman, as Kathryn Post reports for Religion News Service. And there have been larger shifts among some more conservative demographics, including on support for same-sex marriage.

For example, Hispanic Catholic support for same-sex marriage fell from 75% in 2022 to 68% in 2023, and this is occurring at the same time that Hispanic support for the GOP is increasing. Meanwhile, white evangelical support for same-sex marriage remained essentially the same (37% vs 38%), but their opposition to same-sex marriage was already so strong that the lack of a significant shift is hardly surprising.

It’s clear any move the illegitimate Supreme Court may make over the next few years to roll back LGBTQ rights – including and especially the right to same-sex marriage, which is likely to be overturned – will be unpopular. But in a country well down the road to minority authoritarian rule, relatively small declines in support for LGBTQ rights still matter, perhaps above all for state and local battles. And as the contrast between self-identified queer Americans in red states vs blue states shows, a more hostile, discriminatory climate for us at the federal level will likely lead more of us to go back into the closet and also to a further erosion of public support for us.

Unfortunately, the human rights of any marginalised group are never a given and must be continually fought for. Or, as Deckman put it: “This data shows you that that assumption of more progressive and accepting attitudes toward LGBT Americans shouldn’t necessarily be taken for granted.”

Even if LGBTQ issues aren’t the focal point of the 2024 presidential election, if Democrats lose the presidency and Congress, it won’t be long until we will find out exactly how thin and fragile public support for the LGBTQ community really is.