Wales was “unlikely” to have approved of Rishi Sunak’s flagship Eat Out to Help Out scheme had its government been consulted, the country’s former health minister has said.

Vaughan Gething today told the UK Covid inquiry his government had no input into the scheme, which partially subsidised restaurant prices during August 2020 and encouraged indoor socialising.

Patrick Vallance, the UK’s top scientific adviser during the pandemic, told the inquiry’s second module last year that the scheme was “highly likely to have” increased the number of Covid deaths.

Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, did not consult with government scientists or indeed his own ministers before the scheme was announced.

Sunak told the inquiry last year Eat Out to Help Out was not run past scientists because it was a “micropolicy” that was “no different” from other guideline changes that had already been discussed with scientists.

During his evidence session in December, the prime minister defended his decision to roll out the scheme, saying no one had objected in the month between its announcement and the launch date, and that he would have been “very surprised” at any objections to boost the struggling hospitality sector.

Speaking at the hearing centre in Cardiff today, Gething said that had he been consulted, he “would have been unlikely to have said: ‘We’re very happy for this to go ahead’”.

When asked why the Welsh government did not raise concerns in that month-long window, Gething said it was not the “reality” that Sunak would have listened.

“The real world truth is that they’re not going to row back,” said Gething. “The idea that a month after having made an announcement with [Sunak’s] name all over it, Rishi Sunak was going to roll back I think is fighting with reality...there’s no point pretending that.”

“Mr Sunak has been determined on a number of fronts to do things, and this was one of them,” he added.

Gething added that once something is publicised, politicians need to decide whether to “pick a fight” over it.

Multiple government scientists have told the inquiry that, had they been consulted on Eat Out to Help Out, they would not have supported it.

Chief scientific adviser Angela Maclean said in her evidence that she would have asked: “Can you not find another way to stimulate the economy?”, while England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty – also the UK’s chief medical adviser – called the scheme: “Eat out to help the virus.”

Not to be outdone, the former deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam said the scheme “didn’t feel sensible”.

Research has found a likely link between Eat Out to Help Out and the second wave of the virus in the autumn of 2020. To make matters worse, a 2021 report by the London School of Economics found that the policy had only had a “limited effect” on the livelihoods of restaurants and cafes. It also found that there had been “no knock-on benefits to other businesses from people taking advantage of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme”.

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