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[l] at 11/12/22 7:35am
In the video below, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres comments on the launch of the IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM Mitigation report. [ U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres ]The report has severe shortcomings, including: The IPCC makes it look as if the temperature rise could be restricted to 1.5°C above pre-industrial and insists there was a carbon budget left, to be divided by using monetary analysis. This narrative results in a failure to highlight in the SPM some key drivers of change (such as heat pumps in buildings and air taxis in transport) and in inappropriately referring to such key drivers of change as 'options', while failing to mention the best policies to achieve the necessary changes, i.e. through local feebates.The agenda behind this narrative becomes further evident in phrases such as “CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing stranded assets” and “oil and gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stranded toward mid-century”. Instead of “assets” at “risk” of getting “stranded”, these are liabilities that burden the world with a rising cost of clean-up and compensation claims. The IPCC gives CCS further undeserved importance by mentioning it no less than 32 times in the SPM, while a key driver of change such as heat pumps is mentioned only once, and not under buildings but industrial policy. The image below, from the report's SPM, shows “options” by sector with the length of each bar indicating their potential for emissions reduction by 2030, while the color inside the bar gives a cost estimate. [ from IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM, click images to enlarge ]These are not genuinely options, since the dire situation leaves little choice and instead makes it imperative to act most urgently, comprehensively and effectively on climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement does instruct the IPCC to describe the best pathways to achieve this and the IPCC has until now refused to do so. As Arctic-news blog has pointed out for more than a decade, mitigation is most effectively achieved by offering people a range of options, preferably through local feebates, which will also make such policies more popular, as a 2019 analysis (above) concludes.[ from earlier post ]Options are more appropriately realized in the form of feebates that can offer a range of options, with the more polluting options attracting fees and with the revenues used to fund rebates on the cleaner options. An example of a wider set of local feebates is depicted in the above analysis of EV policy. A more diverse set of feebates could include not only fees on fuel and fuel-powered vehicles, but also on facilities that sell or process fuel, vehicle registration, parking, toll roads, etc. It's important to act comprehensively, along several lines of action, e.g. to redesign cities and plan for air taxis. Given the urgency to act, such lines of action are all best implemented as soon as possible, yet at the same time many lines of action are best kept separate, as illustrated by the above image. The image on the right illustrates the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 171 over a few years, vs the IPCC's use of a GWP of 28 over 100 years.  Fees on sales of livestock products can raise revenue for pyrolysis of biowaste, with the resulting biochar added to the soil.  That would also support the transition toward a vegan-organic diet more strongly, in line with the conclusion of an earlier IPCC report that a vegan diet ranks highest regarding mitigation (image right, from an earlier post). The Climate Plan prefers local feebates. Where needed, fees can be set high enough to effectively ban specific alternatives.Furthermore, instead of using money, local councils could add extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using all revenue for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises.That way, biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets.Catastrophic Methane Rise The IPCC narrative hinges on radical cuts in methane emissions from 2020, as illustrated by the image on the right. Instead, methane rose by 15.27 ppb in 2020 and by 16.99 ppb in 2021, the two highest growth levels since the NOAA record began in 1984. The combination image below shows the catastrophic rise of methane. The image in the left panel shows a trend based on January 2008-December 2021 monthly mean methane data. When extending this trend, current methane concentration would be 1920 ppb. Note that methane in December 2021 was 18.6 ppb higher than in December 2020, and it now is April 2022.The situation is even worse than depicted in above image, as NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements. Methane tends to rise in the atmosphere and accumulate at higher altitudes. As illustrated by the image below, mean methane level is growing fastest at the higher altitude associated with 293 mb. Anyway, have another look at the combination image further above. The right panel shows that, if the trend continues, a concentration of 3840 ppb (i.e. double the current concentration) could be crossed in 2029, which would translate into a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 768 parts per million (ppm) at a one-year global warming potential (GWP) for methane of 200. The image on the right shows a trend that, if continued, will cross a carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm by 2029. Add this 450 ppm for CO₂ to 768 ppm CO₂e for methane and the joint CO₂e could be 1218 ppm in 2029, i.e. it would have crossed the point at which the clouds feedback starts to kick in (at 1200 ppm CO₂e). The clouds feedback could thus raise the global temperature by 8°C by 2029, but when also adding the temperature impact of greenhouse gases and further drivers, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier, say by 2026, while a temperature rise of 10°C could happen even before the clouds tipping point gets reached. Drivers could include nitrous oxide (N₂O, see image right), seafloor methane, water vapor, loss of Arctic sea ice and the falling away of the aerosol masking effect, as discussed at the Extinction page. The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Secretary-General Warns of Climate Emergency, Calling Intergovernmental Panel’s Report ‘a File of Shame’, While Saying Leaders ‘Are Lying’, Fuelling Flameshttps://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sgsm21228.doc.htm• Mitigation of Climate Change Report 2022: "Litany of broken climate promises" - UN Chiefhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8rlLaT8v4Q• IPCC Climate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change - Summary for Policymakers https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf• IPCC special report Climate Change and Landhttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl• IPCC Report Climate Change and Land (review)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/ipcc-report-climate-change-and-land.html• Which policy can help EVs most?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/10/which-policy-can-help-evs-most.html• Confirm Methane's Importancehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html• Biochar Builds Real Assetshttps://biochareconomy.blogspot.com/2014/08/biochar-builds-real-assets.html• The Importance of Methanehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane datahttps://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane datahttps://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_annmean_gl.txt• NOAA - MetOp satellite methane data - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA - Mauna Loa CO2 weekly mean and historical comparisonshttps://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_weekly_mlo.txt• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: air taxis, biochar, feebates, GWP, heat pumps, IPCC, livestock, mitigation, vegan]

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[l] at 11/12/22 7:04am
In the above image, the atmosphere is presented as a "bucket" filling with greenhouse gas pollution from fossil fuel use from 1870 to 2020. The image depicts the idea that there is some carbon budget left, before 1.5°C above pre-industrial will be reached. The Global Carbon Project has just issued an update of what it refers to as the Global Carbon Budget.  The Global Carbon Project insists that there still is some carbon budget left, even as global fossil fuel C₂O emissions in 2021 were higher than 2020, and are projected to be higher again in 2022 than 2021, as illustrated by the image on the right. Arctic-news has long said that the suggestion of a carbon budget is part of a narrative that polluters seek to spread, i.e. that there was some budget left to be divided among polluters, as if polluters could safely continue to pollute for years to come before thresholds would be reached that could make life uncomfortable, such as a rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial. For starters, an earlier analysis warns that the 1.5°C threshold may have already been crossed long ago. The situation looks set to soon become even more catastrophic. The upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. Additionally, there will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025. Arctic-news has long warned about rising temperatures, not only due to high greenhouse gas levels, but also due to a number of events and developments including a rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes, a rise of up to 1.9°C due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, and a rise of up to 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.More recent posts also warn that the rise could cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed. Accordingly, the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C from pre-industrial by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as discussed in an earlier post. [ image from quotes, text from 2013 post ] So, there is no carbon budget left. There is just a huge amount of carbon to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, a "debt" that polluters would rather be forgotten or passed on to future generations. This "debt" has been growing since well before the industrial revolution started. Long ago, people should have started to reduce emissions and remove greenhouse gases, as well as take further action to improve the situation, and Arctic-news has long said that comprehensive and effective action must be taken without delay.The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and at the recent post Transforming Society. Links• Global Carbon Project - Global Carbon Budget 2022https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.html• The upcoming El Nino and further events and developmentshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html• Arctic Methane Monsterhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/arctic-methane-monster.html• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.htmlMethane levels threaten to skyrockethttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/09/methane-levels-threaten-to-skyrocket.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Methane keeps risinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• When will we die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Carbon budget]

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[l] at 11/8/22 2:59am
by Andrew GliksonAs terrestrial adversaries keep pushing the Earth and its inhabitants to within seconds of a nuclear catastrophe, looming through heat waves, extreme fires and flood events is the huge calamity of irreversible global warming.[ from earlier post ]Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached levels well above 420 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 13 and 14, 2022, as illustrated by the image, from an earlier post. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ and other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) rising from 280 ppm CO₂e in 1700 to 504 ppm CO₂e in 2021. This figure of 504 ppm CO₂e could be much higher when applying a short horizon to calculate methane's Global Warming Potential. CO₂ levels have been rising from ~315 ppm in 1950 to ~419 ppm in 2022, at an average growth rate of some 1.44 ppm/year accelerating to about 2.5 ppm/year recently. The rate of this CO₂ rise is unprecedented in the Cenozoic (since 65 Ma) record, with perhaps the closest parallel being the aftermath of the K-T dinosaur mass extinction event, when the temperature rose by as much as ~7.5°C. According to Beerling et al. (2002) CO₂ level rose from 350–500 ppm to at least 2,300 ppm within 10,000 years following the K-T impact, at an average rate of ~0.2 ppm/year, significantly less than today's rate. Above image shows CO₂ on track to reach 575 ppm by 2061, a level commensurate with atmospheric conditions during parts of the Miocene, when the temperature in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as also illustrated by the image below, adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al. The image below further illustrates that to find CO₂ levels as high as 575 ppm, we have to go back in time millions of year, into the Miocene.  What makes current conditions even more dire is that it's not just carbon dioxide that is rising at a speed unprecedented in history, methane is rising at an even faster pace, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.  Can the current climate trend be arrested, or even reversed? The current global greenhouse gas trend is leading to one of the largest mass extinctions of species in the geological record, one of the victims being human civilization. The current focus on emission reduction overlooks a major factor, namely the amplifying feedbacks from land and oceans (Steffen et al., 2018). There is a desperate need, in addition to emission reduction, for urgent large-scale sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and for further action to combat the temperature rise.The role of amplifying GHG feedbacks from land and oceans, leading to enhanced heating, appears to be neglected in climate negotiations. Amplifying feedbacks include: an increase in evaporation, raising atmospheric water vapor levels, which enhances the greenhouse gas effect; a decline in the polar albedo (reflection) due to large-scale lateral and vertical melting of ice; release of methane from degrading permafrost and from polar sediments; reduced CO₂ intake by warming oceans. Currently the oceans absorb between 35-42% of all CO₂ and around 90% of the excess heat; warming, desiccation, deforestation and fires over land areas. Numerous species have been unable to survive the accelerated global heating following the K-T impact event, nor are many species likely to survive the even higher rate of the of the Anthropocene catastrophe. A connection between climate change and human wars is evident from the accelerated global warming in the wake of the industrial-scale world wars I and II and subsequent industrial developments. It is possible that climate change could have been arrested in the 1960s had global efforts been directed at the time for abrupt cuts in emissions, transformation of agricultural and land clearing practices, and effort at CO₂ drawdown/sequestration. By the onset of the 21st century however, such efforts have hardly been undertaken and could yet turn out to be too late. The repetitions of humanity’s old warlike habits, investing resources in industries of death, genocidal wars associated with intensive carbon emissions, forecast in “The Fate of the Earth”, yield little promise for a change of direction. Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of New South Wales,Kensington NSW 2052 AustraliaBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, carbon dioxide, methane, Miocene, rise, temperature]

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[l] at 11/8/22 2:13am
The upcoming El NiñoThe above image shows a forecast for August 2023 of the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, from tropicaltidbits.com. The forecast shows temperatures that are higher than average (based on 1984-2009 model climatology) for the tropical Pacific region indicative for an El Niño event. By contrast, the above forecast for November 2022 shows temperatures in the tropical Pacific region that are much lower than average, indicating that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña. By comparison, the above nullschool.net image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly for August 15, 2022, i.e. less than three months ago, when sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific region were similar to what they are now, while anomalies in the Arctic were much higher than they are now.Moving from the bottom of the current La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as indicated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. [ from earlier post ]The NOAA image on the right confirms that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña. NOAA predicts a transition out of La Niña. Note that the NOAA forecast only goes up to May/June/July 2023. SunspotsThe upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a peak in sunspots. The peak in sunspots looks set to reach a higher than expected maximum impact around July 2025. An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C.Accordingly, the impact of the upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. In addition, the will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025. Methane keeps rising at accelerating paceFurthermore, there are a number of events and developments that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, including greenhouse gas emissions that keep rising. Methane is particularly important, due to its high potency as a greenhouse gas and its abundance has also been growing at accelerating pace over the past few years. The above image, adapted from Copernicus, shows a forecast for November 7, 2022, 03 UTC at 500 hPa, with high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic.The above image shows a peak methane level of 2687 ppb (parts per billion) recorded by the NOAA-20 satellite at 399.1 mb on November 3, 2022 AM.The above image shows recent methane daily averages at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, ranging from 1900 ppb to nearly 2000 ppb. The above image shows recent methane daily averages at Barrow, Alaska, ranging from 2000 ppb to over 2100 ppb. [ from earlier post ]Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.  Further events and developments that could speed up the temperature rise[ see the Extinction page ]When including further events and developments, the clouds tipping point could be crossed in a matter of years and even with far less methane than the above trend warns about. As an earlier post mentions, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming. The post points at a recent analysis that finds a stronger impact than previously thought for liquid water path adjustment, which supports the 2016 warning that by 2026 there could be a 1.9°C temperature rise due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, while there could be additionally be a 0.6°C temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires by 2026. Furthermore, the 2016 analysis warns about an additional temperature rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes. There could also be additional temperature rises due to increased water vapor, nitrous oxide and further gases. When including the temperature rise that has already unfolded from pre-industrial and the impact of all such events and developments, the temperature could rise by more than 10°C over the next few years, corresponding with a CO₂e of over 1200 ppm, which implies that the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Tropicaltidbits.com https://www.tropicaltidbits.com• nullschool.net https://earth.nullschool.net• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for September 2022, retrieved October 16, 2022https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202209/supplemental/page-4• Methane Keeps risinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratoryhttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv• Copernicus methane at 500 hPa, forecast for November 78, 2022, 03 UTChttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2022110700,3,2022110703&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa• The Importance of Methane in Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Nino, methane]

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[l] at 10/30/22 8:27am
How can the problems of war, climate collapse and famine best be addressed? Earlier this year, the U.N. issued a warning about famine, pointing out that war is compounding the problems of climate disruption and famine, adding that the "main costs to farmers are fertilizers and energy". The U.N. statement follows many news media reports about the rising cost of living.  How can these problems best be addressed? Two sets of feebates can best accomplish agriculture reform and a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, as has been discussed in many earlier posts and as is discussed in more detail below. Agriculture ReformHalf of habitable land is used for agriculture and most farmland is used to produce meat and diary and a 2019 Greenpeace analysis found over 71% of EU farmland to be dedicated to meat and dairy. Changing from a livestock-rich diet to a plant-based diet can free up large areas of land that can instead be used for other purposes such as community gardens and food forests. Instead of adding chemical nitrogen fertilizers - typically produced with natural gas - in annually-planted monocultures, it's better to have a diversity of vegetation including a variety of perennial plants such as legumes and trees. Furthermore, pyrolyzing biowaste should be encouraged, as this reduces fire hazards and produces biochar that can be added to soil to sequester carbon and to increase nutrients and water in the soil. Local councils could encourage this by adding extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using the revenue for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises.That way, adding biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets.Legumes include beans, peas, peanuts, lentils, lupins, mesquite, carob, tamarind, alfalfa, and clover. Legumes can naturally fix nitrogen to the soil, thus reducing the need for nitrogen fertiliser and in turn reducing the associated emissions, including nitrous oxide. Adding nitrogen fertilizer can also cause the formation of dead zones in lakes and oceans. Dead zones occur when the water gets too many nutrients, such as phosphorus and nitrogen. In too many cases, chemical nitrogen fertilizers are added unnecessarily. The intent may be to help the plants grow, e.g. when leaves of plants turn yellow or when there is little growth. But it may actually be that the plants get too little water because the roots of the plants were damaged or too short, or that there was too little shade and too much sun. Excessive nitrogen fertilization and irrigation can then result in a lot of green leaves, but this growth can come at the expense of good food. Instead, with a good mix of vegetation, there's little or no need to add chemical nitrogen fertilizer, since nitrogen-fixing plants such as legumes can help fast-growing plants get the necessary nitrogen, while the fast-growing plants provide shade for the legumes and the soil. Next to providing shade, the tall, sturdy stalks of plants such as corn can give the vines of beans something to attach themselves to. Fast-growing pants can provide a lot of shade to other plants and to the soil, thus keeping the soil moist, while also preventing the infiltration and growth of weeds and while also deterring pests with their spiny leaves. Trees can lower surface temperatures by providing shade and by holding colder air under their canopy, thus avoiding extreme temperatures that could also cause the soil to get too dry. The roots of trees prevent erosion and guide rainwater to reach greater depth, thus avoiding that the soil gets too wet in case of heavy rain. Trees then pump water up from deep in the ground with their roots and much of the water comes out again through leaves (evapotranspiration), which stimulates rainfall. Furthermore, trees release pheromones (that attract pollinators) and other aerosols such as terpenes. Trees are typically narrower at the top and wider below, and through their shape and by standing up high they can guide the wind upward, while water vapor released from leaves also helps lift these aerosols into the air.  Raindrops forming around these aerosols will further stimulate the formation of lower cloud decks that provide shade, that reflect sunlight back into space and that produce more rainfall locally.Furthermore, olivine sand can be used to create footpaths and bicycle paths. Olivine sand could also be added on top of biochar, as the light color of olivine sand reflects more sunlight, while olivine also sequesters carbon and adds nutrients to the soil. By redesigning urban areas, more space can be used for trees, which also reduces the urban heat island effect and thus lowers temperatures.  Important in this regard is the transition to a vegan-organic diet. This can dramatically reduce the need for land and water, while additionally reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A good mix and variety of vegetation can help each of the plants through symbiotic interaction grow an abundance of vegan-organic food locally in a sustainable way. People can improve the landscape by removing biowaste from the forest floor to reduce fire hazards. Most of the biowaste can be pyrolyzed and returned to the soil in the form of biochar, which additionally reduces fire hazards, as it increases soil fertility and thus makes vegetation more healthy, while it also increases the soil's capability to retain moisture.Some of the biowaste can also be used to construct buildings. Instead of cutting down the largest and most healthy trees to do so, which now all too often happens, it makes more sense to instead remove only dead trees and biowaste from the forest floor. Such use of biowaste could provide funding for the process of waste removal from the forest floor. For most biowaste (including kitchen and garden waste, and sewage), it makes sense to turn it into biochar that is added to the soil.The image below shows how policies described in the Climate Plan can facilitate the necessary transformation of society, while reducing the cost of energy and the cost of food. [ from earlier post ]Reducing the Cost of Energy and the Cost of Conflict As said, the cost of energy can best be reduced by a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy. Much land is currently used for mining and drilling, refining and transport of fossil fuel (including roads, railways, ports and military protection to secure supply lines). Much land is also used to grow crops and trees that are burned for energy, i.e. feeding wood into power plants and growing crops for biofuel to power vehicles.[ from earlier post ]Instead, by using electricity that is generated by wind turbines and solar panels, the total area of land that is needed to produce energy can be reduced dramatically. Using eVTOL air taxis can furthermore reduce the need for roads and associated infrastructure, further freeing up land, while the transition to electricity generated with solar panels and wind turbines can additionally free up land that is now used by utilities and their associated infrastructure such as power plants, power poles and towers, communication poles, etc. This land can instead be used for community gardens, (food) forests, parks, etc.Currently, much fossil fuel is transported by ship. International shipping emissions are not included in national totals of greenhouse gas emissions, despite the huge part of international shipping in global trade, carrying 70% of that trade by value and more than 80% by volume. Near the coast, batteries are increasingly powering shipping, but in international waters, shipping is almost entirely powered by fossil fuel, mainly bunker oil. Some 43% of maritime transport is busy merely moving fuel across the globe, so terminating fuel usage on land could in itself almost halve international shipping emissions.In addition to the commercial emissions caused by shipping of fuel, there are also military emissions that are excluded in national totals, such as international use by the military of bunker fuels and jet fuel, greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption of bases abroad and the manufacture of equipment used by the military abroad. A large part of the military is busy securing and protecting global supply lines for fossil fuel, while burning huge amounts of fuel in the process. A 2019 analysis found that the US military's global supply chain and heavy reliance on carbon-based fuels make it the largest institutional consumer of oil and one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters, more than many countries worldwide.Disputes over possession of fossil fuel are behind many international conflicts. Instead, nations can each cater for their power needs more independently and securely by transitioning to clean, renewable energy. A large part of a nation's infrastructure is used to transport fuel domestically, including trucks driving on roads and highways, while also using tunnels and bridges, parking places and stations for refuelling, while additionally fuel is transported by trains, planes and vessels that need ports, railways stations and tracks, and a lot of fossil fuel is burned in the process of transporting the fuel and constructing and maintaining these facilities. Furthermore, many forests and much cropland are used to supply biofuel, for use either to power vehicles, for heating or as fuel for power plants. Reducing the use of fuel will therefore also reduce nations getting into conflict with other nations, not only conflict over the possession of fossil fuel and over water to cool power plants, but also conflict over land and water that is used for agriculture and forestry to grow biofuel. The easiest way to reduce the cost of conflict is to take away the reason for conflict, which in this case is the use of land to produce fuel.Clean, renewable energy in the form of electricity generated by solar panels and wind turbines is already more economic than using fuel for energy. Shifting to clean energy will thus lower the cost of energy, while people will also be less burdened by the cost of associated conflicts, which is more than the cost of the military and police taking care to avoid conflict, as the cost is even larger than that if conflicts do escalate and cause destruction of infrastructure, damage to soil and ecosystems and loss of lives, health and livelihood for all involved. The comprehensive and effective action proposed by the Climate Plan can terminate the use of fuel and thus also reduce conflict, while additionally reducing the threat of runaway warming, and while additionally providing many environmental benefits and further benefits such as the termination of perceived needs for military forces to police global fuel supply lines and associated infrastructure. In conclusion, reducing the use of fuel will in itself further reduce demand for fuel and the cost of energy. Replacing fuel by clean, renewable energy can additionally cut the need for energy through greater efficiencies of electric motors, appliances and devices. As said, this will also reduce the need for land and water, and - this cannot be said enough - avoid or delay climate collapse and catastrophe. Air Taxis and Urban Redesign can further facilitate the necessary transformationAir taxis can be an important component of the transformation of the way we travel, live, work and eat.This doesn't have to be an instant shift. In existing cities, there already is a strong and growing movement to restrict the use of cars in city centers, and to instead add more walkways and bikeways. In this case, the roads will still be there, it's just their usage that changes. Another example is pipes. Many cities want to disconnect pipes that now supply natural gas to buildings, as it makes more sense to use electricity instead. The pipes will still be there, they just won't be used anymore, if at all. Digging up the pipes may make sense, but this may take some effort and time and it's therefore important that this issue is not used as an excuse to delay the rapid transition to the use of clean energy that is so urgently needed.It's important to look at longer-term and more radical redesign. The transition toward greater use of air taxis enables space previously used for roads to instead be used for more walkways and bikeways, as well as for trees, community gardens, etc. This should be incorporated as part of wider and longer-term planning and redesign of urban areas. In some places, this can lead to a more compact urban design, especially in city centers. After all, a lot of space becomes available as the use of roads for vehicle movements and for parking is reduced in an urban area, and this allows for more compact construction of new buildings and renovation of existing buildings that also reduces the distance between buildings, thus shortening the time it takes for trips by foot or bike in the city center, while there also will be plenty of opportunities for spaces to be created for air taxis to land and take off, e.g. in parks and on top of buildings.At the same time, air taxis enable trips of up to a few hundred miles to be completed fast, while using little energy and causing little emissions. Furthermore, more remote places can be economically reached by air taxis without a need for roads to lead them to these places or for railway stations to be located nearby. Drone delivery of goods and air taxis can enable more people to live outside urban areas. More people will be able to have goods delivered to their home and to reach urban amenities if and when they want to, and more economically compared to using cars and roads.The need for land and water to produce food and energy, and the need for land to transport goods and food can be reduced with the transitions to clean energy and to vegan-organic food. These transitions can also reduce the need for infrastructure such as pipes and poles for water supply, sewage, communications and power. Instead, we can have solar panels, microgrids, WiFi, rainwater tanks, biochar units, food forests and community gardens.The image below illustrates how policies recommended in the Climate Plan can further reduce the need for infrastructure by supporting eVTOL air taxis, while transforming the space thus gained into community gardens, walkways, bikeways, etc. [ from an earlier post ] In conclusion, the situation can best be addressed through action as described in the Climate Plan. Links • Climate Plan (page)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Plan (post)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/climate-plan.html• Climate Plan (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimatePlan• Air Taxis (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/AirTaxis• Biochar (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar• Vegan Organic Food (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/VeganOrganicFood• Secretary-General Warns of Unprecedented Global Hunger Crisis, with 276 Million Facing Food Insecurity, Calling for Export Recovery, Debt Relief (June 24, 2022) https://press.un.org/en/2022/sgsm21350.doc.htm • Land Use - by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roserhttps://ourworldindata.org/land-use• View your government’s military emissions datahttps://militaryemissions.org• Military emissionshttps://militaryemissions.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/military-emissions_final.pdf• Emissions from fuels used for international aviation and maritime transporthttps://unfccc.int/topics/mitigation/workstreams/emissions-from-international-transport-bunker-fuels• Decarbonizing the maritime sector: Mobilizing coordinated action in the industry using an ecosystems approach https://unctad.org/news/decarbonizing-maritime-sector-mobilizing-coordinated-action-industry-using-ecosystems-approach• Assessing possible impacts on States of future shipping decarbonizationhttps://unctad.org/news/assessing-possible-impacts-states-future-shipping-decarbonization• News release: No environmental justice, no positive peace — and vice versahttps://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en/news/73129• Study: A global analysis of interactions between peace and environmental sustainability - by Dahylia Simangan et al. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811622000210• Also discussed at:https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160237979779679• Costs of War - Neta Crawfordhttps://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use%2C%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Revised%20November%202019%20Crawford.pdf

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: biochar, conflict, energy, fertilizer, infrastructure, society, transformation, transforming]

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[l] at 10/6/22 2:29am
Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly over the past few weeks and looks set to keep falling rapidly over the next few months. Ocean heat is at record levels, as illustrated by the image below and as discussed in an earlier post. The image below shows the temperature at the North Pole reaching 0.7°C or 33.3°F (at 1000 hPa, at the green circle) on March 16, 2022, with ocean currents depicted at the background.How could the temperature at the North Pole get this high, in March? As said, ocean heat is at record levels. This is heating up the air over the Atlantic Ocean. At times, huge amounts of heat are getting pushed into the Arctic due to a distorted Jet Stream. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream on the Northern Hemisphere on March 16, 2022, with strong winds at 250 hPa pushing heat from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic. Furthermore, the Gulf Stream is pushing huge amounts of ocean heat toward the Arctic. The image below shows that sea surface temperatures were as much as 14.1°C or 25.3°F higher than 1981-2011 off the North American coast (green circle) on March 5, 2022. The image below shows that, on March 16, 2022, the temperature in the Arctic was 3.5°C higher than 1979-2000. Below, a Climate Reanalyzer forecast for March 18, 2022, of very high temperature anomalies over Antarctica combined with a forecast of a diversion over Antarctica of the Southern Polar Jet Stream (wind at 250 hPa).As the combination image below shows, the temperature on Antarctica was 12.5°C or 54.4°F at 1000 hPa at the green circle on March 17, 2022 at 17:00 UTC. The image in the left panel shows high sea surface temperature anomalies south of Australia, while the Jet Stream (250 hPa) moves over Antarctica. The image in the right panel shows wind and temperature at 1000 hPa. What causes such distortions of the Jet Stream? • Emissions by people heat up the air, and heat up oceans and make winds stronger, as discussed in an earlier post.• Another mechanism affecting the Jet Stream is that, as oceans heat up, the temperature difference between land and oceans widens both in Summer and in Winter and this can cause the Jet Stream to divert deeper from the narrow path it used to follow, as discussed in an earlier post. • What especially affects the Jet Stream on the Northern Hemisphere is that, as the Arctic gets hit hard by temperature rises, the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Equator, slowing the Jet Stream; this can prolong and amplify extreme weather events.Signs of the things to comeThe above events could be seen as signs of the strength and the speed of the rise to come.  Rise due to La Niña and high sunspotsThe image below indicates that the global temperature difference between the top of an El Niño and the bottom of a La Niña period could be more than half a degree Celsius. The highest temperature anomalies have over the years shown up at the highest latitudes North, i.e. the Arctic Ocean, in particular during El Niño periods. This is illustrated by the image on the right, created with a NASA image that shows temperature anomalies of up to 4.1°C (versus 1951-1980) over the Arctic Ocean. The next image on the right, by Climate Reanalyzer, illustrates that very high temperature anomalies can show up at the highest latitudes North during Winter on the Northern Hemisphere, in this case a temperature anomaly (vs 1979-2000) of 7°C for the Arctic as a whole on February 28, 2022.  It is ominous for such high anomalies to show up in the Arctic during a La Niña period, and when it's Winter on the Northern Hemisphere when there's only very little sunlight reaching the Arctic. For comparison, the next image on the right shows a temperature anomaly (vs 1979-2000) of 7.7°C for the Arctic as a whole on November 18, 2016, when there was an El Niño. We're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the next image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This has been suppressing the temperature and it will keep suppressing the temperature until the start of the next El Niño. The next El Niño could push temperatures up even more strongly than the average El Niño, for a number of reasons. As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as discussed in an earlier post. Furthermore, a 2019 study analyzes how tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems, as mentioned in an earlier post.Currently, the temperature rise is additionally suppressed by low sunspots. Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle. Observed sunspots look stronger than predicted, as described at the sunspots page. According to IPCC AR4, warming by solar irradiance ranges from 0.06 to 0.3 W/m².Rise due to further elements[ from the Extinction page ]On top of the temperature rise that can be expected to unfold over the next few years due to variables such as an upcoming  El Niño and high sunspots, there is the temperature rise due to further elements. One of these elements causing the temperature to rise is the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.As the temperature of the atmosphere rises, this will trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks such as an increase in water vapor combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page. What could further push up temperatures a lot over the next few years is the compound impact of feedbacks in the Arctic, including decline of the snow and ice cover, releases of greenhouse gases from degrading subsea and terrestrial permafrost, and further distortion of the Jet Stream causing more extreme weather events. ConclusionThe situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.Links• Albedo loss in Antarctica https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/albedo-loss-in-antarctica.html• NSIDC - Charctic interactive Sea Ice Graph https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Nullschool.nethttps://earth.nullschool.net• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Accelerating loss of global snow and ice coverhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-loss-of-global-snow-and-ice-cover.html • Why stronger winds over the North Atlantic are so dangeroushttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/why-stronger-winds-over-north-atlantic-are-so-dangerous.html• Human Extinction by 2022?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html• More Extreme Weatherhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/more-extreme-weather.html• NASA Temperature Analysishttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp • NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf • Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño - by Bin Wang et al. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/45/22512• Tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems - by Mateo Duque-Villegas et al. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/631/2019• Accelerating loss of global snow and ice cover https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-loss-of-global-snow-and-ice-cover.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Niño, Gulf Stream, jet stream, ocean heat]

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[l] at 10/6/22 1:24am
NOAA's globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane reading for November 2021 of 1909.3 parts per billion (ppb) is 17.6 ppb higher than the reading for November 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.57 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record. Keep in mind that this 1909.3 ppb reading is for November 2021; it now is March 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.The image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1936 ppb at 321 mb on March 7, 2022 pm. Carbon dioxideCarbon dioxide levels are currently very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below that shows carbon dioxide levels approaching 430 parts per million (ppm) recently at Barrow, Alaska. Clouds tipping point[ from earlier post ]The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) level over the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point, at first in one spot, causing low-altitude clouds in various neighboring areas to break up there, and then propagating break-up of clouds in further areas, as discussed at the clouds feedback page.The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1958 ppb on October 25, 2021 am at 295 mb. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 391.6 ppm CO₂e. Together with a global mean CO₂ level of 420 ppm, that's 811.6 ppm CO₂e, i.e. only 388.4 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point. The image on the right shows a trend based pointing at a methane level of almost 4000 ppb by end 2026, from an earlier post.Alternatively, an additional 5 Gt of methane from abrupt release from the seafloor could raise the global mean methane concentration by about 2000 ppb, and even earlier than 2026. At a 1-year GWP of 200, an extra 2000 ppb would translate into an extra 400 ppm CO₂e, thus pushing the joint impact of just two greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) above the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point and raising the global temperature by 8°C due to the clouds feedback alone, i.e. on top of the additional rise caused by other warming elements, as further discussed below.Seafloor methane eruptions could trigger a huge temperature rise Warnings about the potential for seafloor methane releases have been given repeatedly, such as in this 2017 analysis, in this 2019 analysis (image below) and in a recent analysis (2022). Researchers in 2019 found amounts of methane in the air over the East Siberian Sea up to nine times the global average.A 2021 analysis indicates that massive methane seepage from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean occurred during ice sheet wastage over the last and penultimate deglaciation periods (i.e. the Holocene, ~20-15 ka, respectively the Eemian, ~140-130 ka).At the time, seafloor methane entering the atmosphere could be accommodated without resulting in huge temperature rises, because such releases were spread out over relatively long periods, while the level of methane in the atmosphere at the time was relatively low and since the lifetime of methane is limited to a decade or so. Today, circumstances are much more dire in many respects. While high heat peaks may have occurred locally during the last and penultimate deglaciation, today's global mean temperature is higher, as James Hansen et al., confirmed in a 2017 analysis. Furthermore, a 2012 analysis indicates that oceanic heat transport to the Arctic today is higher. Greenhouse gas levels are very high at the moment and their rise is accelerating. As a result of the rapidity of today's rise, new seafloor methane eruptions can occur while previous methane releases haven't yet been broken down in the atmosphere.   Seafloor methane eruptions can thus trigger a huge temperature rise, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page. Conclusions The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt • NOAA - globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt • NOAA - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Sounding Products (MetOp-B) https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxidehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases, Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW • NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa, Hawaii https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html • Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • Human Extinction by 2022? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html • Terrifying Arctic methane levelshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html • Terrifying Arctic methane levels continuehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html • Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Nataia Shakhova et al. (2017)https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872• Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Nataia Shakhova et al. (2019)https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251• CNN - Russian scientists say they've found the highest-ever 'flares' of methane in Arctic watershttps://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/12/us/arctic-methane-gas-flare-trnd/index.html• In-situ temperatures and thermal properties of the East Siberian Arctic shelf sediments: Key input for understanding the dynamics of subsea permafrost - by Evgeny Chuvilin et al. (2022)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264817222000289• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Arctic methane release due to melting ice is likely to happen again https://www.geosociety.org/GSA/News/pr/2021/21-15.aspx• Ice-sheet melt drove methane emissions in the Arctic during the last two interglacials - by Pierre-Antoine Dessandier et al. (2021)https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/49/7/799/595627/Ice-sheet-melt-drove-methane-emissions-in-the• Contrasting ocean changes between the subpolar and polar North Atlantic during the past 135 ka - by Henning Bauch et al. (2012) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051800• Young people's burden - by James Hansen et al. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/577/2017/esd-8-577-2017.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, carbon dioxide, clouds, CO2-e, methane, tipping point]

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[l] at 10/6/22 12:49am
Methane keeps rising. The image below shows methane flask measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, since 2001. A recently-published article points out that prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. There is the danger that, as methane keeps rising, the clouds tipping point could be crossed. This danger is rarely discussed. How bad could it be? The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1981 ppb at 393 mb on October 2, 2022 am, while plenty of methane was present over the Arctic Ocean at the three altitudes, as the compilation image below shows. This supports the possibility that large amounts of methane are getting released from the Arctic Ocean, with even more to follow. This 1981 ppb mean methane level translates into 396.2 ppm CO₂e at a 1-year GWP of 200. Destabilization of sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could cause a large abrupt burst of methane to enter the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean.A doubling of the mean methane level could push up the mean methane level to twice as much, to 792.4 ppm CO₂e, which is only 407.6 ppm CO₂ away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point that on its own could push up the temperature by some 8°C globally. This gap of 407.6 ppm CO₂ could be more than covered by the current carbon dioxide level. The September 2022 carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa was higher than that, at 415.96 ppm. Since the carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa in September typically is at its lowest point for the year, this implies that a large abrupt burst of methane could cause the the clouds tipping point to be instantly crossed due to methane and carbon dioxide alone.Since there are further forcers, such as nitrous oxide and CFCs, while further events and development could additionally speed up the temperature rise, this means that the clouds tipping point could be instantly crossed in case of a burst of methane that is far smaller in size than the methane already in the atmosphere.  [ from earlier post ]That's not even the worst-case scenario. In the above calculation, global mean methane levels are used. However, there is a possibility that low-lying clouds could at first break up and vanish abruptly at one specific point, due to a high methane peak, and that this could lead to break-up of neighboring clouds, propagating break-up across the globe and thus pushing up the temperature rise virtually instantly by some 8°C globally. The MetOp satellite recorded a peak methane level of 3644 ppb and a mean level of 1944 ppb at 367 mb on November 21, 2021, pm, as discussed in an earlier post. This 3644 ppb translates into 728.8 ppm CO₂e, again at a 1-year GWP of 200. This is 471.2 ppm CO₂e away from the clouds tipping point and that 471.2 ppm CO₂e could be covered by the carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and CFCs currently in the atmosphere. There are further scenarios that could cause the clouds tipping point to be crossed soon, e.g. if the rise in methane kept following a trend such as depicted in the image below. [ from an earlier post ]The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratoryhttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts• Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios - by Luke Kemp et al. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2108146119Also discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160138721434679• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• NOAA - MetOp satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• The Importance of Methane in Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• Overshoot or Omnicide?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html• Human Extinction by 2022?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: clouds feedback, clouds tipping point, GWP, methane]

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[l] at 9/30/22 1:34am
The Northern Hemisphere is where most people live. Furthermore, most people live on land. Let's first look at the temperature rise on the Northern Hemisphere. The image below, created with a September 30, 2022 screenshot from NASA customized analysis plots, shows June-July-August temperature anomalies from 1880-1920 on the Northern Hemisphere with June-July-August 2022 highlighted with an anomaly of 1.4°C or 2.52°F, a record high in a tie with 2020. Secondly, most people live on land. The image below shows the monthly mean global surface temperature anomaly on land. It is similarly created with a September 30, 2022 screenshot from NASA customized analysis plots and shows a peak anomaly from 1880-1920 of 2.95°C or 5.31°F (for February 2016, land only).The year 2016 was an El Niño year. During an El Niño, temperatures are higher than usual. We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses temperatures. We look set to move into another El Niño within years. In conclusion, the temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere looks set to cross 3°C soon, the more so since we are also facing a peak in sunspots (by 2025), which may coincide with peak temperatures associated with the upcoming El Niño. Also keep in mind that the above temperature anomalies are measured from 1880-1920, so the temperature rise from pre-industrial is significantly higher than that. There are some further events and developments that could push up the temperature rise further, as discussed at the extinction page. Humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• Cataclysmic Alignment https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• When will we die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: 3C, 3°C]

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[l] at 9/8/22 4:28am
The image on the right shows a NASA Worldview satellite image of a blue Beaufort Sea (with Barrow, Alaska, at the top left, on September 7, 2022). The image shows that there is a lot of open water between the coast of Alaska and the sea ice. To determine where there is open water and where the sea ice starts can be hard; the sea ice is often covered by clouds; furthermore, even when there are no clouds, the question remains what is to be regarded as sea ice. According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km². Arctic sea ice extent was 4.912 million km² on September 6, 2022, which is larger than the extent in many previous years around this time of year (see NSIDC image below). However, the sea ice has become very thin, resulting in many areas where only small pieces of ice are present. NSIDC regard a cell to have sea ice if it has at least 15% sea ice, but when regarding a cell to have sea ice if it has at least 50% ice and if that's the case for ⅕ of the cells where there is (some) ice, then we're already in a Blue Ocean Event right now.So let's have another look at how much of the above 4.912 million km² can be regarded as sea ice, by using the NSIDC map with sea ice concentration as a guide. The roughly-sketched outline drawn over the NASA map below indicates that there may only have been some 991 thousand km² of concentrated sea ice left on September 6, 2022 (inset shows NSIDC sea ice concentration for the day). As said, it's a rough sketch, so some cells with a higher concentration of sea ice may have been left out. Having said that, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña and the associated lower air temperatures contribute to a relatively larger sea ice extent than would otherwise be the case. In conclusion, depending on what is counted as sea ice, we could already be experiencing a Blue Ocean Event right now. A Blue Ocean Event implies the crossing of a huge tipping point that looks set to cause further tipping points to be crossed, as discussed at the Blue Ocean Event page. The situation is dire and the right thing to do is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• NSIDC - Frequently asked questionshttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq• NASA Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov• NSIDC - sea ice concentrationhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews• NSIDC - sea ice extenthttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Albedohttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Feedbacks https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Blue Ocean Event https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, Blue Ocean Event, extent, ocean, sea ice, tipping point]

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[l] at 8/22/22 11:33pm
Arctic sea ice extent was 5.88 million km² on August 21, 2022, larger in extent than in any of the years from 2010 through 2021 at this time of year, as illustrated by the image below. At first glance, one might think that this relatively large extent was a sign of healthy sea ice. After all, the larger the sea ice, the more sunlight gets reflected back into space. At the same time, however, the situation is very dangerous, as there is a growing risk that large eruptions of methane will occur from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Why is the situation so dangerous? There are many contributors to the danger, three of them are:1. Sea ice acts as a sealTemperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than in the rest of the world. As temperatures rise in the Arctic, increased precipitation, meltwater and runoff from land, and flow of freshwater from rivers all decrease salinity of the water in the Arctic Ocean. Lower salinity makes it harder for sea ice to melt. Furthermore, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña (NOAA image on the right), and the associated lower air temperatures further contribute to a relatively larger extent of the sea ice. More extensive sea ice in turn makes it harder for ocean heat to be transferred to the atmosphere, thus instead raising the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.Sea ice acts as a seal that impedes transfer of ocean heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. The larger the sea ice is in extent, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, which means that more heat will remain in the Arctic Ocean. 2. Lid on the North Atlantic Ocean stratification is increasing globally, as ocean warming is stronger for upper layers versus the deep ocean. Stratification increased from 1960 to 2018 by 5.3% for the upper 2000m and by as much as 18% for the upper 150m, while salinity changes also play an important role locally, a 2020 study finds.As temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than in the rest of the world, the Jet stream is getting deformed, and this can, at times strongly, increase precipitation over the North Atlantic and increase runoff from land (including from melting glaciers) that both contribute to growth of a relatively cold, freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic. This lid on the North Atlantic reduces transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and enables large amounts of salty, warm water to enter the Arctic Ocean, diving under the sea ice.  This lid also increases the risk of a sudden, large influx of hot, salty water. Slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causes ocean heat to accumulate, while more warm water travels underneath this lid (instead of at the sea surface) toward the Arctic Ocean. As the Jet Stream gets more deformed, strong winds along the path of AMOC can at times speed up the flow of water that travels underneath this cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic, suddenly pushing large amounts of salty, warm water into the Arctic Ocean. [ from: Arctic sea ice August 2022 ] 3. Latent heat buffer loss The navy.mil combination image below has three panels. The left panel shows the sea ice on August 30, 2012, the center panel shows the sea ice on August 30, 201, and the right panel shows a forecast for the sea ice for August 21, 2022, run on August 20, 2022. The image illustrates that Arctic sea ice is currently larger in extent than it was in 2012 and 2014 around this time of year, and that there has been a dramatic reduction in thickness of the sea ice over time. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. This ice has meanwhile all but disappeared, so without this latent heat buffer further incoming heat must go elsewhere, i.e. the heat will further raise the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean. Compound impact The danger is that, as more salty, warm water keeps arriving in the Arctic Ocean while the latent heat buffer has largely disappeared and while sea ice extent is relatively large, this will raise the temperatures and salinity levels at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean enough to destabilize hydrates in sediment at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in methane eruptions both from these hydrates and from free gas underneath these hydrates. [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] High methane concentrationsThe possibility of large releases of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is the more dangerous given the already very high methane concentrations in the atmosphere. The annual growth in methane in 2021 was the highest on the NOAA record. The image on the right shows a methane peak of 2622 (marked by the red oval), recorded by the N20 satellite on August 20, 2022 am at 399.1 mb. Note the high methane concentrations north of Siberia. Another N20 satellite image is added underneath showing high methane concentrations over the Arctic on August 20, 2022 am at 695.1 mb, which is much closer to sea level.  The MetOp satellite image underneath also shows high methane concentrations over the Arctic at 695.1 mb on August 20, 2022 am. Methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean are very dangerous because there is very little hydroxyl in the atmosphere over the Arctic to break down the methane.  The MetOp satellite image underneath shows a mean for methane of 1971 ppb (marked by the red oval) at 293 mb on the morning of August 18, 2022 am. An abrupt release as large as the methane currently in the atmosphere could raise the mean twice as high, to 3942 ppb and when using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 788.4 ppm CO₂e.Average daily carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 417.05 ppm on August 18, 2022 (next image on the right). When adding that 417.05 ppm for CO₂ to the above 788.4 ppm CO₂e for methane, that gives a total of 1205.45 ppm CO₂e. In other words, a large eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could abruptly cause the joint CO₂e of just two greenhouse gases, i.e. methane and CO₂, to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point globally and trigger a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback alone. When adding further forcers, a huge temperature rise could be triggered with far less methane. ConclusionIn conclusion, there is a growing risk that methane will erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause a dramatic rise in temperature.Even without such eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, temperatures look set to rise strongly soon, as we move into an El Niño and face a peak in sunspots. Either way, the resulting temperature rise could drive humans extinct as early as in 2025 with temperatures continuing to skyrocket in 2026. This makes it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.Arctic sea ice (earlier posts in 2022)• Arctic sea ice June 2022 - why the situation is so dangeroushttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/arctic-sea-ice-june-2022-why-situation-is-so-dangerous.html• Arctic sea ice July 2022https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2022.html• Arctic sea ice August 2022https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2022.htmlFurther links• Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century - by Guancheng Li et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00918-2• The ocean has become more stratified with global warming - news releasehttps://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/513049• IPCC AR6 WG1 SPMhttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates.https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxidehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html• NOAA - MetOp satellite https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA - N20 satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202207/supplemental/page-4• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice concentrationhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews• NSIDC - Chartic, interactive sea ice graphhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Methanehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Naval Research Laboratoryhttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Natalia Shakhova et al. (2019) https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decadehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heat Bufferhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• How much time is there left to act?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/how-much-time-is-there-left-to-act.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Human Extinction by 2025?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, extent, hydrates, methane, sea ice]

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[l] at 8/10/22 7:20am
Ocean currents keep pushing heat toward the Arctic OceanArctic sea ice is getting very thin, as temperatures keep rising and ocean currents keeps pushing warm water toward the Arctic, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, showing sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on August 8, 2022. Latent heatLatent heat is ocean heat that is, or rather was previously consumed by melting of the sea ice underneath the sea surface. [ The Latent Heat Buffer ] This ice has meanwhile all but disappeared, so without this latent heat buffer further incoming heat must go elsewhere, i.e. the heat will further raise the temperature of the water and it will also cause more evaporation to take place where the sea ice has disappeared altogether, and this in turn will further heat up the atmosphere over the Arctic. Thin layer of sea ice The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 9, 2022, with concentration in a large area close to the North Pole as low as 0%. The image below, from NSIDC, also shows sea ice concentration on August 9, 2022. There still is a relatively extensive but very thin layer of sea ice present at the surface, due to the suppression of air temperatures that comes with the current La Niña. As long as air temperatures are low enough to keep this surface ice frozen and as long as there are no strong winds pushing the ice out of the Arctic Ocean, this thin layer of ice will act as a seal, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.  The larger the remaining sea ice is in extent, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, which means that more heat will remain in the Arctic Ocean.[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]The danger is that ocean heat keeps arriving in the Arctic Ocean, while the latent heat buffer is gone. As a result, more of this heat could reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening to destabilize hydrates in these sediment, resulting in methane eruptions both from these hydrates and from free gas underneath these hydrates.Record high methane levels Methane levels are already at record high and growth is accelerating, even without an extra burst of seafloor methane.NOAA registered a globally averaged marine surface April 2022 mean of 1909.9 ppb, which is 18.7 ppb higher than April 2022, as illustrated by the image on the right. By comparison, the highest annual growth on the NOAA record is 18.31 ppb for 2021. NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements.  More methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes, as illustrated by the image on the right.The MetOp satellite recorded a mean global methane level of 1969 ppb at 293 mb on August 4, 2022 pm. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 393.8 ppm CO₂e. As the image underneath also shows, the MetOp satellite also recorded a peak methane level of 2882 ppb at 469 mb on August 8, 2022 pm. Record high carbon dioxide levelsCarbon dioxide (CO₂) levels have been quite high over the past few months. Monthly CO₂ was 420.99 ppm both in May and in June 2022. Some hourly CO₂ measurements were well above 422 ppm in May 2022. On May 28, 2022, one hourly average at Mauna Loa was recorded of 424 ppm.When adding this monthly CO₂ concentration of 420.99 ppm and the above 393.8 ppm CO₂e for methane, that gives a total of 814.79 ppm CO₂e. Clouds feedbackThe clouds tipping point could be crossed due to an additional 5 Gt of methane from an abrupt eruption of the seafloor, which is only 10% of the 50 Gt that Natalia Shakhova et al. warned about long ago, while 50 Gt is in turn only a small fraction of all the methane contained in sediments in the Arctic. On its own, such an eruption of seafloor methane could raise the global mean methane concentration by another 1969 ppb which, at a 1-year GWP of 200, would translate into another 393.8 ppm CO₂e, which when added to the above 814.79 ppm CO₂e, gives a total of 1208.59 ppm CO₂e.[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]So, that would abruptly cause the joint CO₂e of just two greenhouse gases, i.e. methane and CO₂, to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point and trigger a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback alone.There are further forcers and feedbacks to be taken into account, which means that the clouds tipping point could be crossed even with a far smaller abrupt release of seafloor methane. While it would take longer for the clouds tipping points to get crossed that way, the associated temperature rise could be enough to drive humans into extinctions well before the tipping point was even reached. A rise of 3°C above pre-industrial could occur on land and drive humans into extinction by 2025. La Niña[ adapted from NOAA - click on images to enlarge ]As said, sea ice extent is relatively large at the moment, because we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which is suppressing the temperature rise. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon. The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).  Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause even more dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise.ConclusionIn conclusion, there is a growing risk that methane will erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which could cause a dramatic rise in temperature. Even without such eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, temperatures could rise strongly, as we move into an El Niño and face a peak in sunspots. The resulting temperature rise could  drive humans extinct as early as in 2025 with temperatures continuing to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Arctic sea ice on previous months• Arctic sea ice June 2022 - why the situation is so dangeroushttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/arctic-sea-ice-june-2022-why-situation-is-so-dangerous.html• Arctic sea ice July 2022https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2022.htmlFurther links• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Chartshttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice concentrationhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Methanehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heat Bufferhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Human Extinction by 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, clouds feedback, hydrates, latent heat, methane, tipping point]

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[l] at 7/24/22 12:28am
Blue Ocean EventA Blue Ocean Event occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean). According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km².The image on the right shows a trend pointing at zero Arctic sea ice volume by September 2027.Note that the volume data in the image are averages for the month September ⁠— the minimum for each year is even lower. Furthermore, since zero volume implies zero extent, this indicates that a Blue Ocean Event (extent below 1 million km²) could happen well before 2027.Sea ice concentrationAnother measure than sea ice extent or  volume is sea ice concentration. The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows sea ice concentration on July 22, 2022, with concentration in many areas close to the North Pole down to 0%. Sea ice thickness and NASA Worldview satellite imagesThe NASA Worldview satellite images below give a good idea of how much sea ice is still present in the Arctic, or how little, especially north of the North Pole. The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to July 16, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added. The above animation shows a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting. The University of Bremen combination image below shows the difference in sea ice thickness between June 1, 2022, June 30, 2022, and July 22, 2022. The images at the center and on the right show large areas where sea ice is less than 20 cm thick, indicating that the latent heat buffer had already disappeared in June 2022,  as also discussed further below. The NASA Worldview combination image below shows the sea ice north of Greenland on July 19, 2022 (top), and on July 22, 2022, illustrating that even at places where the sea ice was the thickest, it can disappear rapidly. As thick ice breaks off and fragments, it gets heat up more from the sides, accelerating the melting. Ocean heatOf the extra heat from Earth's energy imbalance, about 93% ends up in the ocean as increasing ocean heat content (see image below), 3% goes into melting ice, 4% goes into raising temperatures of land and melting permafrost, and less than 1% remains in the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. [ from earlier post ]Sea ice has disappeared in the Bering Strait, in part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.6°C or 65.48°F.On July 19, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Arctic Ocean was as high as 14.0°C or 25.2°F (at green circle), as illustrated by the screenshot below of a nullschool.net image (with text added). In 1981-2011, the sea surface temperature at this spot (green circle) at this time of year in the Kara Sea was around freezing point.The above image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa) moving over the Arctic ocean, instead of circumventing the Arctic and thus keeping heat out of the Arctic and keeping cold inside the Arctic, as it used to be.  The above NOAA image illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.2°C or 89.96°F on July 20, 2022.Latent heatLatent heat is heat that is (less and less) going into melting the sea ice. The reason this heat is called latent (hidden) heat, is that it doesn't raise the temperature of the water, but instead gets consumed in the process of melting the ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melting). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.Once most of the sea ice that was hanging underneath the surface is gone, further heat will still keep moving underneath the sea ice from the Atlantic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. Without the latent heat buffer, this heat must go elsewhere, i.e. it will typically raise the temperature of the water. The atmosphere will also warm up faster. More evaporation will occur once the sea ice is gone, further warming up the atmosphere.A 2019 analysis concludes that the latent heat tipping point gets crossed when the sea surface temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere gets higher than 1°C above 20th century's temperature and when there is little or no thick sea ice left. As the image below indicates, the temperature anomaly of 1°C above the 20th century average looks set to be crossed in the course of the year 2021.[ from the post Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water ]As the Latent Heat Tipping Point gets crossed, there may still be a thin layer of ice at the surface, at least as long as air temperatures are low enough to keep it frozen and as long as strong winds haven't pushed the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. This thin layer of ice will still consume some ocean heat below the surface, but at the same time it acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere. Even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean.One huge danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, more heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and resulting in releases of methane from these hydrates and from free gas underneath that was previously sealed by the hydrates.As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years. [ feedback #14: Latent Heat ]The above 2014 image, from the feedbacks page, shows three of the numerous feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic. Feedback #1 is the albedo feedback. Feedback #14 refers to the loss of the Latent Heat Buffer and warming of the Arctic Ocean. Feedback #2 refers to methane releases. Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo could push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, while the additional methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years. [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]ConclusionIn conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Blue Ocean Event https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html• Naval Research Laboratoryhttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NASA Worldview satellitehttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov• NOAA - sea surface temperaturehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heat Bufferhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Human Extinction by 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Blue Ocean Event, concentration, feedbacks, latent heat, methane, ocean heat, thickness]

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[l] at 7/13/22 3:42am
Earth's energy imbalance, defined as the absorbed solar radiation minus the net outgoing longwave radiation, is arguably the most important metric related to climate change, argue Kevin Trenberth et al. in a recent article.One could also argue that the most important metric related to climate change is the crossing of 3°C above pre-industrial by monthly mean surface temperatures on land, as illustrated by the above image created with NASA content. After all, most people live on land and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial, according to a 2019 analysis in an earlier post. A temperature rise of 3°C is unlikely to stop there, even if all activities by humans would stop, including their emissions. Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in June 2022 was 420.99 ppm, a joint record high with May 2022, as illustrated by the above image. Carbon dioxide levels this high are likely to keep adding ocean heat for some time, especially since additional emissions will result from decomposing biomass and fires globally, while the sulfate masking effect will fall away. Furthermore, we're moving into a new El Niño, which could coincide with a peak in sunspots in 2025, as illustrated by the image on the right and discussed in the post Cataclysmic Alignment.All this looks set to contribute to a further rise in temperature, with the danger of causing ocean temperatures to increase to the point where there will be massive eruptions of seafloor methane contributing to the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed, which in itself could push up temperatures by a further 8°C and cause extinction of most life on Earth, as the 2019 analysis warns.Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as also discussed at the Extinction page. In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly and drive humans into extinction as early as in 2025. Temperatures could continue to rise afterwards, and drive most life on Earth into extinction soon thereafter, making it the more important to do the right thing now and help avoid the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan at: Links• A perspective on climate change from Earth's energy imbalance - by Kevin Trenberth et al. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6f74• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• When will we die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa, Hawaii https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Cataclysmic Alignment https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: clouds feedback, near-term human extinction, pre-industrial]

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[l] at 6/21/22 12:29am
Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly in June 2022. On June 19, 2022, Arctic sea ice extent was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by above image, adapted from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC Chartic).The image below, from an animation by Zachary Labe, shows Arctic sea ice extent up to June 20, 2022, based on Vishop data. The yellow line is the year 2022. The white line shows extent for the year 2012, when it reached a record minimum in September. The blue line shows extent the year 2020, when the minimum in September was second lowest.  The image below, adapted from Vishop, shows that on June 19, 2022, global sea ice extent was close to a record low for the time of year. [ adapted from NOAA ] The fact that sea ice is so low for the time of the year is the more striking as we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses the temperature rise.El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon. The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.The NSIDC compilation below illustrates how much multi-year sea ice has already declined over the years. The top panel shows the age of Arctic sea ice for the March 12 to 18 period in (a) 1985 and (b) 2022. The oldest ice, greater than 4 years old, is in red. Plot (c) shows the timeseries from 1985 through 2022 of percent cover of the Arctic Ocean domain (inset, purple region) by different sea ice ages during the March 12 to 18 period. On June 18, 2022, Arctic sea ice volume was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Polarportal. The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to June 18, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added.The animation shows a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area, while sea ice is disappearing altogether in some places. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting.The University of Bremen image below also shows sea ice thickness, on June 19, 2022. Close to the coast of Siberia, where much of the sea ice has disappeared altogether, the decline is due for a large part to warm water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.  Sea ice has disappeared altogether in the Bering Strait, for a great part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, especially the Yukon River, the Kuskokwim River and the Copper River, as illustrated by the above NOAA image, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 15.6°C or 60.08°F.On June 10, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Bering Strait was as high as 15.5°C or 27.9°F (at green circle), illustrated by the above nullschool.net image. In 1981-2011, the Bering Strait was still largely frozen at this time of year.The NOAA image below illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on June 19, 2022.  Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo will push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic.  But even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean. As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.  [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] ConclusionIn conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• NSIDC - Charctichttps://nsidc.org/arct.../charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Zachary Labe - sea ice extent and concentration https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration• Vishop sea ice data https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent • NSIDC - Springtime in the Arctic https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2022/05/springtime-in-the-arctic • NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Polarportalhttps://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume• Naval Research Laboratoryhttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NOAA - sea surface temperaturehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• nullschoolhttps://nullschool.net• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, Arctic, dangerous, extent, methane, ocean, rise, sea ice, temperature, thickness, volume]

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[l] at 6/5/22 4:23am
Record high carbon dioxide The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere just broke two records. CO₂ was 421.46 in the week starting May 22, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, while CO₂ was 420.99 ppm in May 2022. Earlier, very high daily and hourly measurements were recorded at Mauna Loa, as illustrated by the image below, showing one hourly measurement of 424 ppm (on May 28, 2022), as well as sequences of daily measurements in the green insets. The image below shows carbon dioxide concentration rising over the past few years, with surface flask measurements well above 422 ppm at Mauna Loa recently. Carbon dioxide concentration is even higher over the Arctic. The image below shows carbon dioxide approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska. To get an idea how much greenhouse gases have risen, a 2021 study points at concentrations of 190 ppm for CO₂, 370-375 ppb for CH₄ and 200-245 ppb for N₂O some 18 ka to 21 ka. By comparison, the MetOp image below shows a global mean methane level that is more than five times as high, i.e. 1945 ppb at 293 mb on May 25, 2022 am.  The MetOp image below shows methane on May 30, 2022 pm, at 742 mb, which is much closer to sea level. The NOAA 20 image below shows high nitrous oxide levels over the Arctic on June 3, 2022 pm at 1000 mb.Greenhouse gas levels are very high and there are many further indications that a huge temperature rise could take place over the next few years. Cataclysmic alignment of El Niño and sunspots  The trigger for such a huge rise could be a cataclysmic alignment of the upcoming El Niño with a high number of sunspots, which look set to reach maximum impact around July 2025.We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This suppresses the temperature rise. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon. The above NOAA image shows that the difference in temperature between the bottom of a La Niña and the peak of an El Niño can be more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F). A huge temperature rise looks set to unfold soon, first of all in the Arctic, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots.  Sunspots are currently well above what NOAA predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. The more sunspot, the more the temperature goes up. The rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026. A huge temperature rise in the ArcticThere are many further indications that we're on the brink of a huge temperature rise in the Arctic. Ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising. As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km². [ from the Extinction page ]As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline. Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O). Global temperature rise This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane. Temperatures looks set to rise further, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place. As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page. Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page. Conclusion In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly soon, driving humans extinct by 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Links • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum - by Matthew Osman et al. (2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03984-4 • Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html • NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf • NOAA - El Niñohttps://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino#:~:text=An%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20condition%20occurs,every%203%20to%205%20years. • NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-4• MetOp satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA 20 satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• NOAA - sunspotshttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression • Latent heat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html • Blue Ocean Eventhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html • Feedbacks https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html • Aerosols https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html • Clouds feedback and tipping point https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • Jet Stream https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html • The Importance of Methane https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html • When Will We Die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: alignment, Arctic, cataclysmic, El Niño, ENSO, loss, rise, sea ice, sunspots, temperature]

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[l] at 5/16/22 2:50am
NOAA data show a carbon dioxide level of 421.13 parts per million (ppm) for the week starting May 8, 2022, a new record high since measurements started at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. As the image below also shows, very high daily levels were reached recently, as high as 422.04 ppm. Greenhouse gas levels are even higher further north. Very high carbon dioxide levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, approaching 430 ppm. Furthermore, very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, including many at levels well over 2000 parts per billion (ppb).The trigger: El Niño and sunspotsEl Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niños can be expected to occur within the next few years. As also illustrated by the NOAA image on the right, we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña and this suppresses current temperatures.A huge temperature rise in the Arctic looks set to unfold soon, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots. Sunspots are currently well above expected levels, as illustrated by the image below on the right.Huge temperature rise in ArcticAdditionally, greenhouse gas levels are very high over the Arctic, while the ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising.  As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km². As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, while loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.[ from the Extinction page ]Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).Global temperature riseThis would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methaneTemperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page.Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page.ConclusionIn conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly by 2026, resulting in humans going extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Pointshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html• NOAA - El Niñohttps://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino#:~:text=An%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20condition%20occurs,every%203%20to%205%20years.• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-4• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• NOAA - sunspotshttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• Latent heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Blue Ocean Eventhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• Clouds feedback and tipping pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• The Importance of Methanehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, carbon dioxide, El Niño, extinction, feedbacks, methane, rise, sunspots, temperature]

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[l] at 4/28/22 12:21am
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached an average daily concentration of 422.06 ppm on April 26, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.Furthermore, very high methane levels were recorded recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, with surface flask readings appearing to be as high as 1955 ppb.  This daily average CO₂ concentration of 422.06 ppm together with a methane level of 1955 ppb (which at a GWP of 200 corresponds with 391 ppm CO₂e), adds up to a joint CO₂e of 813.06 ppm, i.e. less than 387 ppm away from the clouds tipping point that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.Such a 387 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in posts such as this one. [ images and joint CO₂e earlier discussed at this post, click on images to enlarge ]The 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point could be crossed even without such an abrupt methane release. Carbon dioxide and methane levels are rising rapidly. The above combination image illustrates how, by the year 2029, carbon dioxide could reach 450 ppm and methane could reach 3840 ppb, which would yield a joint CO₂e of 1218 ppm and thus raise the global temperature by 8°C due to the clouds feedback alone, in addition to the rise caused by nitrous oxide and the many further forcers, as discussed at the Extinction page. The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan. Links • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Methane (surface flasks) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO• The Importance of Methanehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• Clouds feedback https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Methane rise is accelerating https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/03/methane-rise-is-accelerating.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/shortcomings-of-ipcc-ar6-wgiii-mitigation-of-climate-change.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: carbon dioxide, clouds feedback, methane, rise, seafloor, temperature, tipping point]

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[l] at 4/16/22 6:37am
March 2022 temperature anomalyThe NASA image below shows the March 2021 temperature anomaly. The Arctic is heating up strongly. The above image shows a temperature rise for March 2022 of 1.06°C, which is the rise from 1951-1980. The image below shows a temperature rise from 1900 for March 2022 of 1.36°C. The box on above image shows that, when including further adjustment, the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35°C. Details of the adjustment are described at the pre-industrial page. A 2.35°C rise is only 0.65°C away from a 3°C rise and, as described before, a 3°C rise will likely drive humans (and many other species) into extinction. Note that the March 2022 temperature is suppressed, as we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. The above NOAA image shows that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius. The next El Niño may well go hand in hand with a high number of sunspots (NOAA image right). The image below features two trends. The black trend is based on adjusted 1880-March 2022 NASA data and shows how 3°C could be crossed by 2029. The blue trend is based on adjusted 2012-March 2022 NASA data and better reflects short-term variables such as sunspots and El Niño. The blue trend shows how 3°C could be crossed by 2027, triggered by an emerging El Niño and high sunspots. Not only could the combination of strong a strong El Niño with high sunspots suffice to cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C by 2025, it could trigger a runaway temperature rise by 2026. Runaway temperature riseThe potential temperature rise is illustrated by the bar on the right.As temperatures rise, loss of Arctic sea ice and of its latent heat buffer will cause more heating of the atmosphere, while changes to the Jet Stream will cause more extreme weather. As humans go extinct, transport and industrial activities will stop that currently co-emit sulfur that masks the full extent of the temperature rise. In addition, as also discussed at the aerosols page, worldwide forest fires and trash fires could cause huge amounts of black carbon to be emitted. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As the IPCC warns (see above image), for each additional 1°C of warming, the global volume of perennially frozen ground to 3 m below the surface is projected to decrease by about 25% relative to the present volume, and the IPCC adds that these decreases may be underestimates. As permafrost declines, huge amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide get released. As the ocean heats up, a huge temperature rise could be caused by releases of seafloor methane, further contributing to the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) to get crossed, causing a further rise of 8°C. Altogether, the temperature rise could exceed 18°C.The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NASA Gistemp https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202203/supplemental/page-4• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Solar cycle sunspots progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• IPCC - FAQ on water vaporhttps://wg1.ipcc.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/faq/wg1_faq-3.2.html• IPCC - AR6 WG1 TS on permafrosthttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: 2026, El Nino, rise, runaway, temperature]

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[l] at 4/9/22 12:41am
[ click on images to enlarge ]Above image is adapted from content by IPCC AR6 WGII and Peter Carter, expert IPCC reviewer and director of the Climate Emergency Institute. The IPCC keeps hiding how much the temperature could already have risen and could rise over the next few years, the associated dangers, and the policies that could most effectively improve the situation. 1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC's use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn't pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for. Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial, a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a total temperature rise from pre-industrial to January 2022 of 2.3°C. 2. Hiding the potential rise to comeWhile a huge temperature rise has already unfolded, the rise is accelerating, as discussed at earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, an example from an earlier post.  In other words, an even larger temperature rise threatens to unfold soon, i.e. this could happen over the course of at few years, as illustrated by the stacked bar next to the cartoon above and as discussed at the extinction page. 3. Hiding the largest dangersThe rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise. What would be the impact of a 3°C, a 4°C, or a 5°C rise?  At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, as habitat for humans (and many other species) will disappear. Such a rise will cause a rapid decline of the snow and ice cover around the globe, in turn making that less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Associated changes are discussed in more detail at this page and this page, and include that the jet stream will further get out of shape, resulting in more extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and firestorms. Changes to the jet stream will also contribute to a further strengthening of storms, which threatens to at times push large amounts of hot, salty water into the Arctic Ocean, triggering eruptions of more and more seafloor methane, as discussed in an earlier post. [ from an earlier post  ] From a 4°C rise, Earth will experience a moist-greenhouse scenario. As the temperature rise gains further momentum, runaway heating may well turn Earth into a lifeless planet, a danger that was discussed in this 2013 post, warning that, without anything stopping the rise, it will continue to eventually destroy the ozone layer and the ice caps, while the oceans would be evaporating into the atmosphere's upper stratosphere and eventually disappear into space. At 5°C rise, most life on Earth will have gone extinct. A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). As the temperature keeps rising, chances are that all life on Earth will go extinct, as Earth would be left with no ozone layer to protect life from deadly UV-radiation. Furthermore, Earth would no longer have water, an essential building block of life. Soil moisture, groundwater and water in oceans would evaporate and eventually disappear into space, as discussed in an earlier post. Much of the above was discussed earlier at Most Important Message Ever. [ from the post When will we die? ] A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity. 4. Hiding the very policies that can most effectively improve the situation The IPCC creates a perception that pollution can continue for decades to come. The IPCC does so by downplaying the size of the temperature rise and the threat of a huge rise within years. The IPCC promotes the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Most importantly, the IPCC has once more failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that can best improve the situation, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future.  The speed at which a huge temperature rise can unfold makes that many adaption efforts could be wasted or even counter-productive. A 2021 report by Neta Crawford estimates the budgetary costs and future obligations of the post-9/11 wars at about $8 trillion in 2021 dollars. Much of that money was spent on securing the supply and transport of fossil fuel. Governments spend $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm the environment, a study by Doug Koplow et al. finds. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8% of GDP and are expected to rise to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, a 2021 IMF report finds. Perverse subsidies are even higher when also including money that now goes into constructing transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, tunnels, bridges, railways, airports, etc. Redirecting such funding could enable more people to work and study from home with time to spare and gardens to grow their own food, instead of commuting by car over roads to offices, schools, etc.[ from earlier post ]Electric VTOL air taxis can replace a huge part of the traffic that now demands expensive infrastructure such as roads, railways including service stations, parking buildings and strips, bridges, tunnels, etc. Air taxis can facilitate a dramatic reduction in the need for traffic infrastructure, which also includes space now used for garages and parking. If much of this traffic instead takes place by air taxis, then urban design can have more space for outdoor dining, parks, markets, tree-lined footpaths, bike-tracks, etc.  Furthermore, drones could be used for transport and delivery of cargo, pharmaceuticals, etc. In many places, cities can become more compact and buildings can be put closer together, thus reducing overall cost and enabling people to reach destinations quicker, either by walking or cycling. Air taxis can bring people to many destinations fast, while people can also using online facilities to further reduce the need for transport and travel infrastructure. In other places, the space now used for roads and parking could instead be used to create urban forests, to extend gardens and to create community gardens and markets where people can get locally-produced vegan-organic food such as fruit and vegetables. Much additional infrastructure can also change, such as traffic lights and road signs, streetlights and the electricity grid. Supply of natural gas could be replaced by electric devices such as heat-pumps, induction-cookers and electric water-heaters. Organic waste can be pyrolysed with the resulting biochar added to the soil. For more on the Urban Heat Island effect, see: https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis/posts/419568755612304 For more on electric water heaters, see: https://www.facebook.com/groups/geoengineering/posts/4415470995176206 For more on biochar and pyrolysis, see: https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar Conclusion The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links • IPCC AR6 WGII - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii • Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html • Human Extinction by 2022? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html • NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ • Pre-industrial https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Aerosols https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html • Clouds feedback https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • When Will We Die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Could Earth go the same way as Venus? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html • Accelerating Methane Rise https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-methane-rise.html • Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: The Role of Business Prepared - by Doug Koplow and Ronald Steenblik (2022)  https://www.earthtrack.net/sites/default/files/documents/EHS_Reform_Background_Report_fin.pdf • The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars - by Neta Crawford (2021)https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_U.S.%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Post-9%2011%20Wars_9.1.21.pdf • IMF - Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidieshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004 • Which policy can help EVs most? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/10/which-policy-can-help-evs-most.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: AR6, IPCC, Peter Carter, rise, temperature]

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[l] at 4/8/22 11:41pm
by Andrew GliksonEnrico Fermi, Physicist, 1901-1953According to Fermi’s Paradox, the failure to date to achieve radio communication between Earth and extraterrestrial civilizations can be attributed to their inevitable short-term self-destruction, a consequence of uncontrolled dispersion of toxic substances, contamination of air, water and land, and construction of deadly weapons. On Earth this includes saturation of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases and production of nuclear weapons.  The most extensive mass extinction event in the history of Earth, represented by the Permian-Triassic boundary 251 million years-ago, involved warming, acidification and oxygen depletion of the oceans, with consequent emanations of toxic H₂S and CH₄, leading to a loss of some 57% of biological families, 83% of genera and 81% of marine species. If the history of the 21st century is ever written it would report that, while large parts of the planet were becoming uninhabitable, the extreme rate and scale of global warming and the migration of climate zones (~100 km per decade), the extent of polar ice melting, ocean warming and acidification, and methane release from permafrost, threatened to develop into one of the most extensive mass extinction events in the geological history of planet Earth.As concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases exceed 500 ppm CO₂-equivalents, consistent with global warming of more than >4°C (image above right), driving temperatures to well above 4°C (image below) and threatening to rise at a higher rate than those of the great mass extinctions. The accelerating destruction of the liveable Earth atmosphere and oceans (after Wil Steffen, 2012)Climate scientists have been either silenced or replaced by an army of economists and politicians mostly ignorant of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, but quantifying the cost-benefit economies of mitigation like corner shop grocers. James Hansen giving testimonybefore the U.S. Congress (1988)Proposed mitigation action were mostly focused on reduction of emissions, neglecting the amplifying feedbacks and tipping points projected by leading climate scientists such as James Hansen (image right). But climate change was not the only threat hanging over the head of humanity and nature. As nations kept proliferating atomic weapons, with time the probability of a nuclear war increased exponentially. At the root of the MAD (mutual assured destruction) policy, or omnicide, resides the deep tribalism and herd mentality of the species, hinging on race, religion, ideology, territorial claims and the concept of an “enemy” perpetrated by demagogues and warmongers, leading to an Orwellian 1984 world where “Oceania has always been at war with East-Asia”, as in the current “forever wars“. Prior to World War I two social forces collided, fascism and socialism. While the former has changed appearances, the latter weakened. At the core of superpower conflict between the Anglo-Saxon world and the Slavic or Chinese worlds are claims of moral superiority, but in reality naked grabs for power. At the centre of human conscience is its mythological nature, a mindset closely related to the mastery of fire where, for longer than one million years, Homo erectus, perched at campfire, watching the flickering flames, has grown its insights and imagination, developing a fear of death, dreaming of omniscience and omnipotence, aspiring for eternal life. As civilization developed in the Neolithic these sentiments drove humans to construct pyramids to enshrine immortality, undertake human sacrifice, to perpetrate death to appease the gods, expressed in modern times through world wars, as stated by Albert Einstein: “The splitting of the atom has changed everything bar man’s way of thinking and thus we drift into unparalleled catastrophes”. For an intelligent species to be able to explore the solar system planets but fail to protect its own home planet defies explanation. For a species to magnify its entropic effect on nature by orders of magnitude, developing cerebral powers which allow it to become the intelligent eyes through which the Universe explores itself, hints at yet unknown natural laws which underlie life, consciousness and complexity. We have entered the age of consequences, masked by the 24 hours news cycle that can only portray transient events but rarely exposes the Orwellian misconceptions which underlie the complicity of the powers-that-be. For, just as individuals can be plagued by insanity, so can groups of people, as in the Jonestown massacre, or in Nazi Germany, where a nation or a species slide blindly into mass suicide, creating systems that saturate the atmosphere with carbon gases and proliferate nuclear weapons in a terrestrial confirmation of Fermi’s Paradox. Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of New South Wales,Kensington NSW 2052 AustraliaBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, extinction, Fermi's Paradox, insanity, omnicide]

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