mark
Arctic New
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[l] at 5/9/23 3:49am
by Andrew Glikson But while “leaders” fail to protect the people from global warming and nuclear war, they have succeeded splendidly in hiding the truth through the denial of climate change, accounting tricks and claims of reduction in domestic emissions, while in fact opening new coal mines, oil wells and fracked coal seams, exporting hydrocarbons through the entire global atmosphere. As mean global temperatures, storms and sea level rise keep rising toward uninhabitable conditions in many parts of the world and thousands of nuclear missiles are aimed to be triggered by accident or design is it too early or already too late for Nuremberg-type trials for those responsible for the ongoing greenhouse gas saturation of the atmosphere and the creation of a doomsday machine? The Nuremberg principles created by the International Law Commission of the United Nations in connection with the Nuremberg Trials of Nazi leaders following World War II, apply critically once again for those planning a nuclear war on the rapidly warming Earth.Principle I. Persons who commit a crime under international law are liable to punishment.Principle II. Internal law do not relieve the person who committed the act from responsibility under international law.Principle III. A person who commits a crime under international law, as a Head of State or responsible government official, is not relieved from responsibility under international law.Principle IV. An act under the order of Government or of a superior does not relieve a person from responsibility under international law. It is not an acceptable excuse to say 'I was just following my superior's orders'.Principle V. Any person charged with a crime under international law has the right to a fair trial on the facts and law.Principle VI. The crimes hereinafter set out are punishable as crimes under international law: Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances; Leaders, organizers, instigators and accomplices participating in the formulation or execution of a common plan or conspiracy to commit any of the foregoing crimes are responsible for all acts performed by any persons in execution of such plan.Principle VII. Complicity in the commission of a crime against peace, a war crime, or a crime against humanity as set forth in Principle VI is a crime under international law.Since World war II every one of these principles has been and continues to be violated by the superpowers of the world, in particular principle VI, where “Leaders, organizers, instigators and accomplices participating in the formulation or execution of a common plan or conspiracy to commit any of the foregoing crimes are responsible for all acts performed by any persons in execution of such plan”. None of these infringements falls within the category of ordinary human offences, rather their consequences for the Earth’s life support system are orders of magnitude larger than even their perpetrators could imagine, namely a major mass extinction of species analogous to the end-Ordovician (86% species extinguished), Permian-Triassic (96 Species extinguished) and Cretaceous-Tertiary (76% species extinguished) (Figure 1A) consequent on carbon emission rates some 9–10 times higher than those during onset of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Figure 1. A. The five great mass extinctions in the history of Earth;              B. IPCC climate projections to 2100 (after Will Steffen). Spikes in extinction rates marked as the five major extinction events and sharp temperature rises include: End Ordovician (444 million years ago) Late Devonian (360 my) End Permian (250 my)End Triassic (200 my) End Cretaceous (65 my) – the event that killed off the dinosaurs. Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum The current rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels at a rate faster than any of the previous mass extinction (Figure 1B) of species, including the K-T event and the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Peak (PETM), the latter roughly 55 million years ago lasting approximately 100,000 years. The termination of the last glacial maximum (17.5–10 kyr ago) when the CO₂ rise rate was ~0.010 ppm CO₂/year and temperature ~0.00046°C/year as compared to the extreme modern rates during 1750-2020 of 0.0074°C/year and 0.04 ppm CO₂/year. The coating of the Earth biosphere with the toxic residues of buried hydrocarbon and their processed plastic products in the form of carbon particles, oil spills, methane and carbon gases, microplastics and related rise in temperatures are threatening the fate of species, including human civilization. Taking no heed of this warning, the species Homo “sapiens” has perfected a virtual doomsday machine under which it is living on borrowed time. Believing it is a ‘chosen species’ sapiens has rarely asked itself what has it been chosen for? Leaders, so-called, forcing the atmosphere into a >4 degrees Celsius-high radioactive hell, including corporate chiefs, top executives, billionaires and their conscious-free political mouthpieces, members of parliaments, ministers and presidents, will be recorded in history as first in line to hell, driving the innocent hapless masses into oblivion. But if “leaders” failed to protect the people from global warming and nuclear war, they succeeded splendidly in hiding the truth, starting with climate change denial, proceeding with accounting tricks and with claims of domestic emission reduction, while at the same time opening new coal mines, oil wells and coal seam gas fracking, exporting the hydrocarbons throughout the atmosphere. These people know who they are, even if they do not fully understand the monstrous consequences of what they are doing or avoiding doing! But if Nuremberg Trials are not conducted now, then when? Andrew Glikson A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientist Books: The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679 The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, extinction, Nuremberg trials]

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[l] at 5/7/23 4:23am
The above image is from a recent analysis by Karina von Schuckmann et al. and shows that the Earth is heating up, as outgoing radiation is suppressed. More and more extra heat is kept captive on Earth and gets stored mainly in oceans (89%), with smaller proportions getting stored on land (6-5%), in the cryosphere (4%) and in the atmosphere (1-2%). The image also shows another change: 1% more heat gets stored in the atmosphere while 1% less gets stored on land for the period going back to 1971, compared to the period going back to 2006. What could cause that change? Most heat on land is stored in the ground (90 %), with inland water bodies accounting for 0.7 % and permafrost thawing accounting for 9 %. This raises fears that water that was previously present in the ground, is increasingly moving into the atmosphere, as a warming atmosphere holds more water vapor (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). This further amplifies the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas and it also constitutes a tipping point, the Land Evaporation Tipping Point, since at some stage water will no longer be available for further evaporation from land, and the rise in land surface temperature will accelerate accordingly. [ click on images to enlarge ] Loss of ice constitutes several further tipping points. About a quarter of the 4% heat consumed by the cryosphere goes into melting glaciers. Disappearance of glaciers could be coined the Glaciers Tipping Point, since from that point heat can no longer go into melting the glacier and will instead go elsewhere. Similarly, about a quarter of the 4% heat consumed by the cryosphere goes into melting Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice also constitute a  tipping point, since incoming heat will from that point on instead go into the Arctic. So, will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?   El Niño Ominously, November 2023 temperature anomalies are forecast to be at the top end of the scale for a large part of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the tropicaltidbits.com image below. [ click on images to enlarge ]Also note the high temperature anomalies forecast on the above image for the equatorial Pacific, indicative of an El Niño. The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream. Vast amounts of ocean heat are moving toward the Arctic, especially in the North Atlantic, threatening to cause rapid and massive melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost. As discussed in a recent post, the world sea surface temperature (between 60°South and 60°North) has been at 21°C or higher for as many as 38 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic was 21°C on May 5, 2023, much higher than it was last year (in 2022), while it reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September 2022. Rising temperatures of the water in the Arctic Ocean threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (with loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo) and subsequent eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post. Some developments could make things even worse and a huge temperature rise could unfold soon. Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments An earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a recent study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point. [ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ] The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean. Loss of Arctic sea ice is often recognized as a tipping point that accelerates heating up of the Arctic through albedo loss and loss of the latent heat buffer. Loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America is often regarded as a tipping point that could trigger huge emissions of greenhouse gases. Similarly, loss of Antarctic sea ice, loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could each also be seen as tipping points, since further melting could trigger destabilization of local hydrates resulting in eruption of vast amounts of methane. In conclusion, and as discussed in various earlier posts, there are many tipping points that could get crossed soon, including: - The Glaciers Tipping Point - The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (destabilization of sediments) - The Clouds Tipping Point (at 1200 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent) - The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point (discussed above) - The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (discussed above) In the video below, Guy McPherson gives his views. Links • Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? - by Karina von schuckmann et al. https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023 Discussion at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160713282559679 • UNEP Foresight Brief 025 https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/36619/FB025.pdf • Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Tropicaltidbits.comhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com • NOAA SSThttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html • Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatureshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, El Niño, Guy McPherson, sea ice, SST, tipping points]

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[l] at 4/24/23 5:28am
Global temperature riseThe image below illustrates the threat that the temperature rise may exceed 3°C. The blue trend, based on January 1880 to March 2023 data, shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2036. The magenta trend, based on January 2010 to March 2023 data, better reflects relatively short-term variables such as El Niño and illustrates how 3°C could be crossed as early as in 2025. The above image uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies versus 1886-1915 that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base, as also illustrated by the image below. What could cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025? This has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Briefly, such a rise could be triggered by relatively short-term variables such as the upcoming El Niño, high sunspots and extra water vapor in the atmosphere due to the eruption of a submarine volcano. Together, they could raise temperatures by more than half a degree Celsius, triggering the compound impact of further events including feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity and tipping points getting crossed, such as the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point. Indeed, rising temperatures threaten to cause massive loss of sea ice followed by eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. This threat is further illustrated by the image below. Sea Surface Temperature World (60S-60N)April 22, 2023, marked the point where the world sea surface temperature (SST between 60°South and 60°North) had been at 21°C or higher for as many as 35 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.Earlier (on April 4, 2023), the sea surface temperature in 2023 (black line) was as much as 0.3°C higher than in 2022 (orange line) and this has occurred while we're only just entering the upcoming El Niño.Sea Surface Temperature North AtlanticThe situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic. Vast amounts of ocean heat in the North Atlantic are moving toward the Arctic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September and, as illustrated by the image below, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on April 20 was as much as 0.5°C higher in 2023 (black) than in 2022 (orange).As we're moving into the upcoming El Niño, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more and more heat over the next few years, i.e. more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature AnomalyTemperatures have been rising especially fast on land in the Northern Hemisphere, where most people are living. As temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events can be expected that can make life hard, if not impossible, even at higher latitudes.The image below shows monthly anomalies up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on January 1850-March 2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on October 2010-March 2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 3°C in 2024 and a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Note that the image displays anomalies versus 1901-2000, anomalies versus pre-industrial would be significantly higher.  [ from earlier post ]ExtinctionHumans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.ConclusionIn conclusion, everyone is encouraged to support and share this Climate Emergency Declaration.Links• NASA - customized temperature anomalyhttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Dire situation gets even more direhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html• High sea surface temperature in North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/high-sea-surface-temperature-in-north-atlantic.html• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatureshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily• Temperatures rising fast March 2023https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html• Sea surface temperature at record highhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, extionction, methane., sea ice, sea surface temperature, SST, temperature rise]

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[l] at 4/22/23 4:00am
SST World (60S-60N)On April 20, 2023, sea surface temperatures (between 60°South and 60°North) had been at 21°C or higher for as many as 32 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981. On April 4, the sea surface temperature in 2023 (black line) was as much as 0.3°C higher than in 2022 (orange line) and we're only just entering the upcoming El Niño. SST North AtlanticThe situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic. Vast amounts of ocean heat in the North Atlantic are moving toward the Arctic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September and, as illustrated by the image below, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on April 20 was as much as 0.5°C higher in 2023 (black) than in 2022 (orange). As we're moving into the upcoming El Niño, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more and more heat over the next few years, i.e. more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.Temperature riseAs illustrated by the image below, the difference in global temperatures (Land+Ocean) between November 2022 and March 2023 is already about half a degree Celsius and we are not even in an El Niño yet.[ from earlier post ]Rising temperatures threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Over the next few years, feedbacks threaten to start kicking in with increased ferocity and important tipping points threaten to get crossed, such as the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point. [ from earlier post ]El Niño can be expected to reach its full strength within a few years, with a maximum possible in 2026. Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial could be more than 18.44°C by 2026. Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise.ConclusionIn conclusion, everyone is encouraged to support and share this Climate Emergency Declaration. Links• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatureshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily• Temperatures rising fast March 2023https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html• Sea surface temperature at record highhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Niño, North Atlantic, SST]

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[l] at 4/14/23 11:54pm
Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature AnomalyTemperatures have been rising fast in March 2023. The image below shows the Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on Jan.1850-Mar.2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on Oct.2010-Mar.2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Anomalies are versus 1901-2000 (not versus pre-industrial). Could it be possible for the temperature to keep following the magenta trend? Let's have a look at how dire the situation is. Greenhouse gas concentrations keep risingReducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect, a loss that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post. Yet, despite pledges by politicians, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere keep rising, as discussed earlier such as this in this post. Crucially, methane emissions should be cut. The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone, and crossing this tipping point on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. When further forcing than the forcing just from methane is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.El Niño and further variables[ click on images to enlarge ]Meanwhile, we're moving into an El Niño, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.Furthermore, sunspots look set to reach a high maximum within years, and the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post.Ocean heatThe sea surface temperature between 60°South and 60°North has been above 21°C for a while, something that hasn't happened before in the NOAA record that started in 1981, as illustrated by the image below. Vast amounts of ocean heat are moving toward the Arctic. With further melting of sea ice and thawing of permafrost, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more heat over the next few years, more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. The continuing rise of ocean heat threatens to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.The above image illustrates the danger of two tipping points getting crossed, i.e. the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point.Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page[ see the Extinction page ]This threatens to cause rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, as illustrated by the above image.ConclusionA huge temperature rise thus threatens to unfold over the next few years, as illustrated by the image in the right. Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, potentially as early as in 2026.  Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post. This situation calls for urgent action. Reducing emissions alone won't be enough. Carbon also needs to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, through re-/afforestation, through pyrolysis of biowaste with the resulting biochar (and nutrients) returned to the soil and further methods. Even with a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, with changes to food, land use, construction and waste management, and with removal of large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere and oceans, still more action is needed. Marine Cloud Brightening is a good idea, while many further methods may first need more surplus clean energy to be available and/or require more R&D.Whether action will happen successfully and rapidly enough is indeed a good question, but that question shouldn't be used as an excuse to delay such action, since taking such action simply is the right thing to do. More is also discussed at Climate Emergency Declaration. Links• NOAA - Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/land/all/3/1850-2023• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatureshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily• Sea surface temperature at record highhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html• Dire situation gets even more direhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html• IPCC keeps downplaying the danger even as reality strikeshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/ipcc-keeps-downplaying-the-danger-even-as-reality-strikes.html• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202303/supplemental/page-4• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: action, heat, methane, ocean, rise, temperature]

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[l] at 4/4/23 2:05am
Record hot sea surface As illustrated by the above image, the daily sea surface temperature (SST) between 60°South and 60°North was at a record high on April 2, 2023, i.e. the highest temperature in the NOAA record that started in 1981.The black line shows this year's SST, up to April 2, 2023. The orange line shows last year's SST, i.e. 2022. The thicker grey line shows SST in the year 2020, when annual temperatures on land and ocean reached a record high, since 2020 was an El Niño year. This record high sea surface temperature comes as we're moving into a new El Niño, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. There are further reasons why this uptick doesn't come unexpected. The emerging El Niño looks set to coincide with high sunspots, while the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere. Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the sulfate aerosols masking effect. Vast amounts of ocean heat are headed to invade the Arctic. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. The continuing rise of ocean heat threatens to trigger massive loss of sea ice and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post and in this post. All this is pushing up temperatures and will likely keep pushing up temperatures even further over the next few years. To say that the situation is very dangerous is an understatement. Politicians keep downplaying the danger Meanwhile, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is reading the Synthesis Report of its 6th Assessment Report line by line, asking for approval from politicians who seek to downplay such dangers. "There are multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now" says the IPCC in an earlier news release with the title Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all. The IPCC was created in 1988 by politicians and set up under the UNEP and WMO to provide politicians with the best-available scientific analysis on climate change. Yet, emissions have kept rising ever since, even accelerating, and the situation has continued to become ever more dire. Let's face it, the IPCC is an instrument used by politicians to keep downplaying the danger, even as reality strikes it in the face as to how dire the situation is. Politicians control the IPCC and politicians have proven to be prone to make deals in which they sell out climate action. Politicians have forfeited their chance to influence the process. Climate action flowchart In conclusion, politicians should be kept as much as possible out of the climate picture. We, the people, should support communities seeking effective climate action. Below is a flowchart showing how climate action can be achieved without politicians. Links • Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatureshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily • NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf • Sea surface temperature at record highhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html • Dire situation gets even more dire https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html • IPCC: Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for allhttps://www.ipcc.ch/2023/03/20/press-release-ar6-synthesis-report• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html • Feebateshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: climate action, flowchart, IPCC, local people's court, ocean heat, politicians]

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[l] at 3/18/23 7:03am
As the above image shows, the daily sea surface temperature between 60°South and 60°North reached 21°C on March 16, 2023, the highest temperature in the NOAA record that started in 1881. This record high sea surface temperature reflects the change away from La Niña, as also illustrated by the images on the right.Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.Even more dangerous are sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, which have been at record high for the time of year for some time, as illustrated by the image below. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are at their lowest around this time of year, in line with changes in the seasons. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. As illustrated by the above image, sea surface temperature off the east coast of North America were as much as 13.8°C or 24.8°F higher than 1981-2011 on March 15, 2023. This spells bad news for Arctic sea ice, which typically reaches its lowest extent in September. 

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Niño, sea surface temperature]

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[l] at 3/11/23 9:52pm
We have left the Anthropocene. We are now functionally extinct and we look set to drag most, if not all life on Earth into extinction with us, as we keep appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis. We are now in the Suicene. 

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Anthropocene, extinction, Suicine, The Suicene]

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[l] at 2/11/23 7:44pm
 by Andrew Y GliksonWill Lee Steffen: 25 June 1947 – 29 January 2023The name of Will Lee Steffen will stand tall as a pioneer Earth systems and climate change scientist at our critical time when the life support systems of our planet are increasingly threatened. Along with other pioneer climate scientists over the last ~40 years or so, such as Wallace Broecker, James Hansen, Ralph Keeling, Paul Crutzen, Richard Alley, Stefan Rahmstorf, John Schellenberg, William Ruddiman, John Kutzbach, Guy Calendar, Michael Mann, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Weaver, Eric Rignot, Gavin Schmidt, Katrin Meissner, Kevin Trenberth and other, trying to communicate the scientific message of the greatest peril the planet is facing since at least 55 million years ago. There cannot be a more painful position for scientists than to find themselves compelled to issue severe warnings of the demise of the natural world, civilization, society, family and future generations due to the sharp rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures originating from emissions from human industry. Yet this is precisely what climate scientists have been called to do, Cassandra-like, based on the physical and observed evidence for the rapid elevation in atmospheric, land and marine temperatures since the end of the 18th century at a rate exceeding geological mass extinction events. Not all scientists have risen-up to the challenge. A small number have become climate change denial advocates, often supported by oil and gas corporations. Many in companies, government, institutions and in some instances even in universities had to subdue or moderate their warnings. Personal attitudes and politics became evident where, in some instances, scientists regarded as “optimists” were favoured by the authorities while other, labelled as “alarmists”, were penalized for their views. Nowadays the so-called “alarmists” are vindicated as extreme weather events are taking over large parts of the world.Will Steffen avoided these pitfalls, sticking to the authentic scientific evidence and the manifest consequences of global warming around the world, yet disappointed by the refusal of many in authority to understand the implications of climate science for future generations, as reported in his communications (The Guardian 6/10/2018): “I think the dominant linear, deterministic framework for assessing climate change is flawed, especially at higher levels of temperature rise. So, yes, model projections using models that don’t include these processes indeed become less useful at higher temperature levels. Or, as my co-author John Schellnhuber says, we are making a big mistake when we think we can “park” the Earth System at any given temperature rise – say 2C – and expect it to stay there … Even at the current level of warming of about 1C above pre-industrial, we may have already crossed a tipping point for one of the feedback processes (Arctic summer sea ice), and we see instabilities in others – permafrost melting, Amazon forest dieback, boreal forest dieback and weakening of land and ocean physiological carbon sinks. And we emphasise that these processes are not linear and often have built-in feedback processes that generate tipping point behaviour. For example, for melting permafrost, the chemical process that decomposes the peat generates heat itself, which leads to further melting and so on.” Will Steffen wrote to me in our correspondence (27/03/2022): “For all practical purposes i.e., timescales that humans can relate to, the levels of climate change we are driving towards now will be with us for thousands of years at least. The PETM (Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum) might be an appropriate analogue - a rapid spike in CO₂ concentration and temperature followed by the drawdown of CO₂ over 100,000 to 200,000 years. For all practical purposes, that time for recovery is so long (in human time scales) that it could be considered irreversible. Of course, extinctions are irreversible. So when the twin pressures of climate change and direct human degradation are applied to the biosphere, the resulting mass extinction event, that we have already entered, is of course irreversible.” Will was one of a kind. While he would not let his presentations, expressed in scientifically objective and accurate terms, to be too coloured by optimism or pessimism, the congenial nature of his personality and gentle delivery could not hide the severe implications of his message. Rising above the fray, even his detractors found it difficult to refer to him in terms they commonly use toward other climate scientists. Nowadays in many forums climate scientists are replaced by economists, vested interests, marketing agents, sociologists and politicians, with only a vague idea of the basic laws of physics and the atmosphere. Young generations, represented by Greta Thunberg, will see Will as one of last defenders of their future. A/Professor Andrew Y GliksonEarth and climate scientistThe University of New South Wales.11 February 2023

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, Will Steffen]

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[l] at 2/4/23 12:17am
Sea ice extent is very low at both poles at the moment, and the outlook is that the situation is getting even worse. Around Antarctica, sea ice extent was 2.23 million km² on February 2, 2023. Later in February this year, extent looks set to go below the 1.924 million km² all-time record low reached on February 25, 2022. Arctic sea ice extent was 13.676 km² on February 1 , 2023, the second-lowest extent on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. As the above image indicates, over the next few days Arctic sea ice extent looks set to reach an all-time record low for the time of year.Conditions are direThis means that Antarctic sea ice could reach an all-time record low extent later this month, while at the same time Arctic sea ice could be at a record low extent for the time of year.Furthermore, emissions keep rising, ocean heat and greenhouse gas levels keep rising and extreme weather events are getting ever more extreme. Keep in mind that carbon dioxide reaches its maximum warming some 10 years after emission, so we haven't yet been hit by the full wrath of carbon dixode pollution.  Furthermore, an earlier analysis concludes that we have already exceeded the 2°C threshold set at the Paris Agreement in 2015. These dire conditions spell bad news regarding the temperature rise over the coming years. On top of these dire conditions, there are a number of circumstances, feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more dire.Circumstances that make the situation even more direFirstly, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, we're moving into an El Niño.It looks like it's going to be a very strong El Niño, given that we've been in a La Niña for such a long time. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.[ from earlier post, adapted from NOAA ]Secondly, sunspots look set to reach a very high maximum by July 2025, as illustrated by the next two images on the right, adapted from NOAA. Observed values for January 2023 are already well above the maximum values that NOAA predicted to be reached in July 2025. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found. Thirdly, the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this is further contributing to speed up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022, as also discussed at facebook, will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.Feedbacks and developments making things worseThen, there are a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further.On top of the water vapor added by the Tonga eruption, there are several feedbacks causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere.  Further feedbacks include additional greenhouse gas release such as methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from rapidly thawing permafrost on land.Some developments could make things even worse. As discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming. Falling away of this aerosol masking effect could cause a huge temperature rise, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.A huge temperature rise could therefore unfold soon, causing the clouds tipping point to be crossed that on its own could result in further rise of 8°C. Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.ConclusionThe dire situation we're in looks set to get even more dire, calling for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Climate Reanalyzer - sea ice based on NSIDC index V3https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213/supplemental/page-2• NOAA - Solar cycle progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2• Moistening Atmospherehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html• Methane keeps risinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soonhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-huge-temperature-rise-threatens-to-unfold-soon.html• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Antarctica, Arctic, circumstances, conditions, developments, feedbacks, sea ice extent]

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[l] at 1/29/23 4:10am
Are politicians for sale? How can it be measured whether politicians are for sale and to what extent this occurs? One measure of how much looters and polluters are buying politicians could be this: How fast is methane accelerating? Rise in methane and rise in temperatureThe rise in methane is vitally important, given methane's potential to rapidly push up temperatures. Arguably the most important metric related to climate change is surface temperature on land, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The image was created with a July 16, 2022 screenshot from NASA customized analysis plots and shows that the February 2016 (land only) anomaly from 1886-1915 was 2.94°C or 5.292°F. ExtinctionLand-only anomalies are important. After all, most people live on land, where temperatures are rising even faster than they are rising globally, and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis in earlier post.Note that in the above plot, anomalies are measured versus 1886-1915, which isn't pre-industrial. The image raises questions as to what the temperature rise would look like when using a much earlier base, and how much temperatures could rise over the next few years.What can be done about it?The next question is: What can be done about it? To avoid politicians getting bought by looters and polluters, action on climate change is best implemented locally, with Local People's Courts ensuring that implementation is science-based.ConclusionsThe situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and posts at Arctic-news.blogspot.com Links• Human Extinction by 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• NASA customized analysis plots https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• When will we die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Pre-industrial https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: climate plan, Local People's Courts, methane, temperature]

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[l] at 1/29/23 3:34am
 by Andrew GliksonDespite of deceptively-claimed mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in parts of the world, ongoing burning of domestic and exported fossil fuels world-wide continues to change the composition of the atmosphere, enriching it in greenhouse gases by yet another ~2 ppm CO₂ (2022: 418.95 ppm; CH₄: 1915 ppb; N₂0: 337 ppb), reaching levels commensurate with those of the Miocene (23.03 to 5.333 Ma) at rise rates exceeding any in the geological record of the last 66 million years (Glikson, 2020) (Figure 1). Figure 1. Global 1880-2021 annual average temperatures (adapted by UCAR from ClimateCentral).Since 1880 mean global temperatures rose at a rate of 0.08°C per decade, from 1981 by 0.18°C per decade and more when emitted aerosols are accounted for (Hansen et al., in Berwyn, 2022). According to Will Steffen, Australia’s leading climate scientist “there was already a chance we have triggered a global tipping cascade that would take us to a less habitable Hothouse Earth climate, regardless of whether we reduced emissions” (Figure 2).Figure 2. Global mean temperature profile since 200 AD projected to beyond 2000 AD (Will Steffen)Over a brief span of less than two centuries (Figure 1) anthropogenic reversal of the carbon cycle induced the emission of some 1.5 10¹² tonnes of CO₂ and an increased release of 150% more CH₄ from the crust, accumulated in sediments for hundreds of million years through photosynthesis and calcification, as well as from permafrost and oceans. Permeation of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere with the toxic residues of ancient plants and organisms, poisoning the biosphere, is leading to the Sixth mass extinction of species in the history of nature.Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.Figure 3. Europe: Maximum extreme temperatures, July 17-23, 2002.The progression of global warming is unlikely to be linear as the flow of cold ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica glaciers would cool parts of the ocean and in part the continents (Figure 4), leading toward a stadial-type phenomenon, the classic case of which is symbolized by the Younger dryas cool period 12,900 to 11,700 years ago. Figure 4. Projected transient stadial cooling events (Hansen et al., 2016)National and international legal systems appear unable to restrict the saturation of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, as governments preside over the worst calamity in natural history since the demise of the dinosaurs. Facing heatwaves (Figure 3), fires, floods and sea level rise, those responsible may in part remain oblivious to the magnitude of the consequences, waking up when it is too late.There was a time when leaders fell on their sword when defeated in battle or lose their core beliefs, nowadays most not even resign their privileged positions to resist the existential danger posed to advanced life, including human civilization, preoccupied as nations are with preparations for nuclear wars. It is long past time to declare a global climate and nuclear emergency. Andrew Glikson A/Prof. Andrew Glikson Earth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2052 Australia Books:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: aerosols, Andrew Glikson, climate and nuclear emergency, temperature]

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[l] at 1/3/23 2:58am
Arctic sea ice extent was 10.31 million km² on December 4, 2022. At this time of year, extent was smaller only in two years, i.e. in 2016 and 2020, both strong El Niño years. With the next El Niño, Arctic sea ice extent looks set to reach record lows. The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon.The image below shows high sea surface temperature anomalies near the Bering Strait on December 2, 2022, with a "hot blob" in the North Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperature anomalies are reaching as high as 7°C or 12.6°F from 1981-2011. The Jet Stream is stretched out vertically from pole to pole, enabling hot air to enter the Arctic from the Pacific Ocean and from the Atlantic Ocean. The image below shows a forecast for December 5, 2022, of 2m temperature anomalies versus 1979-2000, with anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean near the top end of the scale. On December 6, 2022, the Arctic was 6.63°C or 11.93°F warmer compared to 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. The image below shows the daily average Arctic air temperature (2m) from 1979 up to December 6, 2022. Given that we're still in the depth of a persistent La Niña, these currently very high air temperature anomalies indicate that ocean temperatures are very high and that ocean heat is heating up the air over the Arctic. Additionally, ocean heat is melting the sea ice from below. Accordingly, Arctic sea ice has barely increased in thickness over the past 30 days, as illustrated by the navy.mil animation on the right. This leaves only a very short time for Arctic sea ice to grow back in thickness before the melting season starts again, which means that there will be little or no latent heat buffer to consume heat when the melting season starts. Furthermore, rising temperatures and changes to the Jet Stream contribute to formation of a freshwater lid at the sea surface at higher latitudes, resulting in further heating up of the Arctic Ocean. As a result, more heat threatens to penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane in hydrates and free gas, and result in abrupt release of huge amounts of methane, dramatically pushing up temperatures globally. [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Vishop sea ice extenthttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent• NOAA ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• nullschool.net https://earth.nullschool.net• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Naval Research Laboratory - HYCOM Consortium for Data-Assimilative Ocean Modelinghttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic Ocean, El Niño, extent, sea ice]

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[l] at 1/3/23 1:42am
A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks. The upcoming El NiñoTemperatures are currently suppressed as we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post.  The above image also indicates that a strong El Niño has become more common over the years. The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niña has since continued, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. NOAA adds that the dashed black line indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. Chances are that we'll move into the next El Niño in the course of 2023. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.[ image adapted from NOAA, from earlier post ]SunspotsThe upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a high number of sunspots. The number of sunspots is forecast to reach a peak in July 2025 and recent numbers are higher than expected, as illustrated by the image on the right, from NOAA.  An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C. Recent numbers of sunspots have been high. This confirms the study mentioned in the earlier post that warns that the peak of this cycle could rival the top few since records began, which would further increase the difference. Joint impact of El Niño and sunspots In conclusion, the joint impact of a strong El Niño and high sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.65°C. This rise could trigger further developments and feedbacks that altogether could cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026.Further developments and feedbacksA combination of further developments and feedbacks could cause a huge temperature rise. An example of this is the decline of the cryosphere, i.e. the global snow and ice cover.Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right. Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year. Global sea ice extent is also at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which shows that global sea ice extent was 4.6 million km² on January 2, 2023. The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres. Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that - when present - consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream and additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.There are many further developments and feedbacks that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, such as the (currently accelerating) rise of greenhouse gas emissions, falling away of the aerosol masking effect, more biomass being burned for energy and an increase in forest and waste fires. As said, these developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post. The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• NASA - La Niña Times Three https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150691/la-nina-times-three • NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html • Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4• Tropicaltidbits.comhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Pre-industrial https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0• Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• When will we die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Niño, feedbacks, greenhouse gases, jet stream, sea ice, sunspots]

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[l] at 12/22/22 11:58pm
[ Sam Carana: "There is no carbon budget!" ]In the above image, the atmosphere is presented as a "bucket" filling with greenhouse gas pollution from fossil fuel use from 1870 to 2020. The image depicts the idea that there is some carbon budget left, before 1.5°C above pre-industrial will be reached. The Global Carbon Project has just issued an update of what it refers to as the Global Carbon Budget.  [ adapted from Global Carbon Budget 2022 ] The Global Carbon Project insists that there still is some carbon budget left, even as global fossil fuel C₂O emissions in 2021 were higher than 2020, and are projected to be higher again in 2022 than 2021, as illustrated by the image on the right. Arctic-news has long said that the suggestion of a carbon budget is part of a narrative that polluters seek to spread, i.e. that there was some budget left to be divided among polluters, as if polluters could safely continue to pollute for years to come before thresholds would be reached that could make life uncomfortable, such as a rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial. For starters, an earlier analysis warns that the 1.5°C threshold may have been crossed long ago. The situation looks set to soon become even more catastrophic. The upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. Additionally, there will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025. Arctic-news has long warned about rising temperatures, not only due to high greenhouse gas levels, but also due to a number of events and developments including a rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes, a rise of up to 1.9°C due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, and a rise of up to 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.More recent posts also warn that the rise could cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed. Accordingly, the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C from pre-industrial by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as discussed in an earlier post. [ image from quotes, text from 2013 post ] So, there is no carbon budget left. There is just a huge amount of carbon to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, a "debt" that polluters would rather be forgotten or passed on to future generations. This "debt" has been growing since well before the industrial revolution started. Long ago, people should have started to reduce emissions and remove greenhouse gases, as well as take further action to improve the situation, and Arctic-news has long said that comprehensive and effective action must be taken without delay.The IPCC has betrayed the very scientific basis it was supposed to reflectThe IPCC keeps insisting that there was a carbon budget, and this goes hand in hand with peddling the notion that the temperature rise was still less than 1.5°C. As discussed in an earlier analysis, the temperature has been rising for thousands of years and may have crossed the 1.5°C mark long ago. Furthermore, the Paris Agreement instructs the IPCC to specify pathways to limit the rise to 1.5°C. In its arrogance, the IPCC on the one hand keeps insisting that 1.5°C has not been crossed, while on the other hand bluntly refusing to specify credible pathways to keep it that way. The untenability of this attitude is illustrated by a recent UN news release Climate change: No 'credible pathway' to 1.5C limit, UNEP warns. Many studies point at ways improvements could be facilitated, such as by support for solar panels, wind turbines, heat pumps, biochar, vegan-organic food, air taxis, etc. This analysis and this earlier post agree and also conclude that local feebates work best and that it is preferable for decision-making regarding their implementation to be delegated to local communities. The IPCC on the one hand refuses to contemplate policy instruments, yet on the other hand it keeps peddling pet projects pushed by polluters, such as cap-and-trade, nuclear power, CCS, bioenergy and BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), as illustrated by the image below. [ IPCC keeps peddling pet projects pushed by polluters ]The IPCC keeps downplaying the potential for a huge temperature riseThe IPCC keeps downplaying developments that could lead to a huge temperature rise. Such developments include: • Rising greenhouse levels due to more emissions by people and collapse of the biosphere, and due to more emissions from forest, peatlands and waste fires; • Collapse of the cryosphere, including decline of permafrost, glaciers and sea ice loss and latent heat buffer loss resulting in more clouds over the Arctic, more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and associated seafloor methane releases; • Loss of cloud reflectivity and the potential for CO₂e levels to cross the clouds tipping point;• Loss of the aerosol masking effect; • More water vapor in the atmosphere in line with rising temperatures and as a result from loss of sea ice. Altogether, these developments have the potential to raise the temperature by 18.44°C from pre-industrial, as discussed at the extinction page. One of the most harmful ways in which the IPCC has been downplaying the potential for temperatures to rise is by using a too low Global Warming Potential (GWP) for methane.  This is illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post. In the IPCC special report Climate Change and Land a GWP for methane is used of 28 over 100 years to assess the impact of AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use) versus the impact of fossil fuel, etc. The image illustrates the difference in impact when a GWP for methane of 171 over a few years is used instead.The IPCC seeks to justify its use of a GWP of 28 by focusing on a pulse of methane over 100 years. The impact of such a pulse declines over the years, since the lifetime of methane is only 11.8 years. However, using a pulse to calculate the impact of the total methane in the atmosphere isn't appropriate, because methane doesn't just disappear, but is constantly replenished, or rather is more than replenished, as illustrated by the image further below. Because of this and because of the potentially huge temperature rise within a few years, it makes more sense to calculate the impact of methane over a short period. Over one year, methane's GWP is 200, as discussed at this page. A GWP of 200 is used in the image below (right axis). [ from earlier post ]Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.The above NOAA image shows a methane monthly average for November 2022 of more than 1950 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.  ConclusionsThe situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and at the recent post Transforming Society. Links• Global Carbon Project - Global Carbon Budget 2022 https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm• The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments (2022) https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html• Arctic Methane Monster (2013)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/arctic-methane-monster.html• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Methane levels threaten to skyrocket (2014) https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/09/methane-levels-threaten-to-skyrocket.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratoryhttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv• Methane Keeps risinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html• When will we die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• IPCC - Special Report on Climate Change and Landhttps://www.ipcc.ch/srccl• Climate change: No ‘credible pathway’ to 1.5C limit, UNEP warns https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912• Human Extinction by 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Society (2022)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: 1.5°C, BEECS, bioenergy, Carbon budget, IPCC]

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[l] at 12/22/22 11:02pm
[ posted earlier at facebook ]The image on the right shows a forecast of very low temperatures over North America with a temperature of -40 °C / °F highlighted (green circle at center) for December 23, 2022 14:00 UTC. As the image shows, temperatures over large parts of North America are forecast to be even lower than the temperature at the North Pole.  The combination image below illustrates this further, showing temperatures as low as -50.3°C or -58.6°F in Alaska on December 22, 2022 at 17:00 UTC, while at the same time the temperature at the North Pole was -13.6°C or 7.4°F. The Jet StreamThe image below shows the Jet Stream (250 hPa) on December 13, 2022, stretched out vertically and reaching the North Pole as well as the South Pole, while sea surface temperature anomalies are as high as 11°C or 19.7°F from 1981-2011 at the green circle. The Jet Stream used to circumnavigate the globe within a narrow band from West to East (due to the Coriolis Force), and it used to travel at relatively high speed, fuelled by the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles.[ posted earlier at facebook ]As the above image shows, the Pacific Ocean is currently cooler at the tropics and warmer further to the north (compared to 1981-2011), which narrows this temperature difference and in turn makes the Jet Stream wavier. Accordingly, the Jet Stream is going up high into the Arctic before descending deep down over North America. The image on the right shows air pressure at sea level on December 22, 2022. High sea surface temperatures make air rise, lowering air pressure at the surface to levels as low as 973 hPa over the Pacific. Conversely, a more wavy Jet Stream enables cooler air to flow from the Arctic to North America, raising air pressure at the surface to levels as high as 1056 hPa.On December 22, 2022, the Jet Stream reached very high speeds over the Pacific, fuelled by high sea surface temperature anomalies. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over the North Pacific at speeds as high as 437 km/h or 271 mph (with a Wind Power Density of 349.2 kW/m², at the green circle). The Jet Stream then collides with higher air pressure and moves up into the Arctic, and subsequently descends deep down over North America, carrying along cold air from the Arctic. Distortion of the Jet Stream also results in the formation of circular wind patterns that further accelerate the speed of the Jet Stream. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over North America at speeds as high as 366 km/h or 227 mph (green circle). The image also shows high waves in the North Pacific. La Niña / El NiñoThe low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean are in line with the current La Niña. The fact that such extreme weather events occur while we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña is worrying. The next El Niño could push up temperatures further, which would hit the Arctic most strongly. This would further narrow the difference between temperatures at the Equator and the North Pole, thus making the Jet Stream more wavy, which also enables warm air to move into the Arctic, further accelerating feedbacks in the Arctic.The image below, from NOAA, indicates that the next El Niño is likely to emerge soon. ConclusionThe situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Coriolis Forcehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_force• Wind Power Densityhttp://educypedia.karadimov.info/library/Lesson1_windenergycalc.pdf• Extreme Weatherhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• NOAA - Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2)https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Nino, jet stream, North Pole, pressure, temperature]

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[l] at 12/16/22 11:46pm
The upcoming El NiñoThe above image shows a forecast for August 2023 of the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, from tropicaltidbits.com. The forecast shows temperatures that are higher than average (based on 1984-2009 model climatology) for the tropical Pacific region indicative of an El Niño event. By contrast, the above forecast for November 2022 shows temperatures in the tropical Pacific region that are much lower than average, indicating that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña. By comparison, the above nullschool.net image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly for August 15, 2022, i.e. less than three months ago, when sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific region were similar to what they are now, while anomalies in the Arctic were much higher than they are now.Moving from the bottom of the current La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as indicated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. The NOAA image on the right confirms that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña. NOAA predicts a transition out of La Niña from now on. Note that the NOAA forecast goes up to June/July/August 2023. SunspotsThe upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a peak in sunspots. The peak in sunspots looks set to reach a higher than expected maximum impact around July 2025. An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C.Accordingly, the impact of the upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. In addition, there will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025. Methane keeps rising at accelerating paceFurthermore, there are a number of events and developments that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, including greenhouse gas emissions that keep rising. Methane is particularly important, due to its high potency as a greenhouse gas, and its abundance has also been growing at accelerating pace over the past few years. The above image, adapted from Copernicus, shows a forecast for November 14, 2022, 03 UTC at 500 hPa, with high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic.The above image shows a peak methane level of 2687 ppb (parts per billion) recorded by the NOAA-20 satellite at 399.1 mb on November 3, 2022 AM.The above image shows that recent methane daily averages at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, are between 1900 ppb and 2000 ppb (recent monthly average is above 1950 ppb). The above image shows that recent methane daily averages at Barrow, Alaska are even higher, between 2000 ppb and 2100 ppb. [ from earlier post ]Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.  Further events and developments that could speed up the temperature riseThe rise in methane is alarming and further greenhouse gases also keep rising, such as nitrous oxide, water vapor and carbon dioxide, due to high emissions by people and due to feedbacks that are kicking in, such as forest and waste fires, flooding and further extreme weather events, permafrost loss in the Arctic and reduced carbon sinks. Furthermore, maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission, so the full warming wrath of the carbon dioxide emitted over the past decade is still to come, and an extra 0.5°C rise by 2026 seems possible due to carbon dioxide alone. [ see the Extinction page ]When including further events and developments, the clouds tipping point could be crossed in a matter of years and even with far less methane than the above trend warns about. As an earlier post mentions, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming. The post points at a recent analysis that finds a stronger impact than previously thought for liquid water path adjustment, which supports the 2016 warning that by 2026 there could be a 1.9°C temperature rise due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, while there could be additionally be a 0.6°C temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires by 2026. Furthermore, the 2016 analysis warns about an additional temperature rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes.When including the temperature rise that has already unfolded from pre-industrial and the impact of all such events and developments, the temperature could rise by more than 10°C over the next few years, corresponding with a CO₂e of over 1200 ppm, which implies that the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Tropicaltidbits.com https://www.tropicaltidbits.com• nullschool.net https://earth.nullschool.net• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4• The Importance of Methane in Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• Copernicus methane at 500 hPa, forecast for November 78, 2022, 03 UTChttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2022110700,3,2022110703&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa• NOAA-20 satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratoryhttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv• Methane Keeps risinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• When will we die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Nino, methane]

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[l] at 12/16/22 11:13pm
How can the problems of war, climate collapse and famine best be addressed? Earlier this year, the U.N. issued a warning about famine, pointing out that war is compounding the problems of climate disruption and famine, adding that the "main costs to farmers are fertilizers and energy". The U.N. statement follows many news media reports about the rising cost of living.  How can these problems best be addressed? For more than two decades, two sets of feebates have been recommended to help achieve agriculture reform and a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, as depicted in the images in this post and as discussed in many earlier posts and the text below. Agriculture ReformHalf of habitable land is used for agriculture and agriculture uses 70% of the freshwater supply. Most farmland is used to produce meat and diary and a 2019 Greenpeace analysis found over 71% of EU farmland to be dedicated to meat and dairy. Much of the land used for agriculture is used in unsustainable ways, resulting in huge emissions, addiction to pesticides and chemical fertilizers, loss of wildlife, pollution and depletion of groundwater, loss of soil nutrients and soil carbon content, and loss of the wide range of seeds that enabled our very civilization to emerge. Changing from food that is rich in meat and dairy to vegan-organic food can free up large areas of land that can instead be used for other purposes such as community gardens and food forests. It can bring down the cost of food and it can, in combination with biochar, restore the soil's carbon, moisture and nutrients content. Instead of adding chemical nitrogen fertilizers - typically produced with natural gas - in annually-planted monocultures, it's better to have a diversity of vegetation including a variety of perennial plants such as legumes and trees. Furthermore, pyrolyzing biowaste should be encouraged, as this reduces fire hazards and produces biochar that can be added to soil to sequester carbon and to increase nutrients and moisture in the soil. According to Schmidt et al., 400,000 pyrolysis plants need to be built to process 3.8 billion tons of biowaste annually. Local councils could encourage this by adding extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using the revenue for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises. That way, adding biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets. Two sets of feebates can strongly reduce the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, specifically carbon dioxide (C₂O), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). [ from earlier post ]The contribution of agriculture to emissions of carbon dioxide and especially methane is huge. The image on the right illustrates the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 171 over a few years versus 28 over 100 years. Nitrous oxide is also important, as a potent greenhouse gas and also as an ozone depleting substance (ODS). The impact of nitrous oxide as an ODS has grown relative to the impact of CFCs, as the abundance of nitrous oxide has kept rising in the atmosphere. The IPCC in AR6 gives nitrous oxide a lifetime of 109 years and a GWP of 273. A 2017 study warns about increased nitrous oxide emissions from Arctic peatlands after permafrost thaw. Furthermore, a recent study finds that nitrous oxide emissions contribute strongly to cirrus clouds, especially when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together. Cirrus clouds exerts a net positive radiative forcing of about 5 W m⁻², according to IPCC AR6. Much of current nitrous oxide emissions is caused by nitrogen fertilizers. Legumes include beans, peas, peanuts, lentils, lupins, mesquite, carob, tamarind, alfalfa, and clover. Legumes can naturally fix nitrogen to the soil, thus reducing the need for nitrogen fertiliser and in turn reducing the associated emissions, including emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. Adding nitrogen fertilizer can also cause the formation of dead zones in lakes and oceans. Dead zones occur when the water gets too many nutrients, such as phosphorus and nitrogen from fertilizers, resulting in oxygen depletion at the top layer of oceans, which can also increase nitrous oxide releases. In the video on the right, Jim McHenry discusses ways to improve the situation. All too often, chemical nitrogen fertilizers are added unnecessarily. The intent may be to help the plants grow, e.g. when leaves of plants turn yellow or when there is little growth. But it may actually be that the plants get too little water because the roots of the plants were damaged or too short, or that there was too little shade and too much sun. Excessive nitrogen fertilization and irrigation can then result in a lot of green leaves, but this growth can come at the expense of good food.Instead, with a good mix of vegetation, there's little or no need to add chemical nitrogen fertilizer, since nitrogen-fixing plants such as legumes can help fast-growing plants get the necessary nitrogen, while the fast-growing plants provide shade for the legumes and the soil. Next to providing shade, the tall, sturdy stalks of plants such as corn can give the vines of beans something to attach themselves to. Fast-growing pants can provide a lot of shade to other plants and to the soil, thus keeping the soil moist, while also preventing the infiltration and growth of weeds and while also deterring pests with their spiny leaves. Trees can lower surface temperatures by providing shade and by holding colder air under their canopy, thus avoiding extreme temperatures that could also cause the soil to get too dry. The roots of trees prevent erosion and guide rainwater to reach greater depth, thus avoiding that the soil gets too wet in case of heavy rain. Trees then pump water up from deep in the ground with their roots and much of the water comes out again through leaves (evapotranspiration), which stimulates rainfall. Furthermore, trees release pheromones (that attract pollinators) and other aerosols such as terpenes. Trees are typically narrower at the top and wider below, and through their shape and by standing up high they can guide the wind upward, while water vapor released from leaves also helps lift these aerosols into the air.  Raindrops forming around these aerosols will further stimulate the formation of lower cloud decks that provide shade, that reflect sunlight back into space and that produce more rainfall locally.Furthermore, olivine sand can be used to create borders for gardens, footpaths and bicycle paths. Where needed, olivine sand could also be added on top of biochar, as the light color of olivine sand reflects more sunlight, while olivine can also soak up excess water and sequester carbon, while adding nutrients to the soil. By redesigning urban areas, more space can be used for trees, which also reduces the urban heat island effect and thus lowers temperatures. In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses global food shortages. Also important is the transition to a vegan-organic diet. This can dramatically reduce the need for land and water, while additionally reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A good mix and variety of vegetation can help each of the plants through symbiotic interaction grow an abundance of vegan-organic food locally in a sustainable way. Pyrolysis of biowaste is recommended as this can turn most carbon into biochar, resulting in high carbon sequestration rates, and increased capacity of the soil to retain carbon, nutrients and moisture, thus reducing erosion, fire hazards and greenhouse gas emissions, while increasing vegetation growth resulting in additional drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere.  Most of the biowaste can be pyrolyzed and returned to the soil in the form of biochar. Some of the biowaste can also be used to construct buildings. Instead of cutting down the largest and most healthy trees to do so, which now all too often happens, it makes more sense to instead remove only dead trees and biowaste from the forest floor. Such use of biowaste could provide funding for the process of waste removal from the forest floor. For most biowaste (including kitchen and garden waste, and sewage), it makes sense to turn it into biochar that is added to the soil. "The carbon content of biochar varies with feedstock and production conditions from as low as 7% (gasification of biosolids) to 79% (pyrolysis of wood at above 600 °C). Of this initial carbon, 63-82% will remain unmineralized in soil after 100 years at the global mean annual cropland-temperature of 14.9 °C", a 2021 study concludes.  [ from earlier post ] The above image shows how policies described in the Climate Plan can reduce the cost of energy and the cost of food, and facilitate the necessary transformation of society. The image shows examples of feebates that can help transform society in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, oceans, waste management and construction (center panel). The image also shows examples of local feebates to facilitate the transition to clean, renewable energy (top panel), as further discussed below. Reducing the Cost of Energy and the Cost of Conflict [ from earlier post, click on image to enlarge ] As said, the cost of energy can best be reduced by a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy. Much land is currently used for mining and drilling, refining and transport of fossil fuel (including roads, railways, ports and military protection to secure supply lines). Much land is also used to grow crops and trees that are burned for energy, such as wood used for heating, wood fed into power plants and crops grown for biofuel to power vehicles. Mining, drilling and power plants are also large users of water. They need a lot of water, mainly for cooling, and they can pollute the water they use.  Instead, by using electricity that is generated by wind turbines and solar panels, the total amount of water and the total area of land that is needed to produce energy can be reduced dramatically.  Currently, much fossil fuel is transported by ship. International shipping emissions are not included in national totals of greenhouse gas emissions, despite the huge part of international shipping in global trade, carrying 70% of that trade by value and more than 80% by volume. Near the coast, batteries are increasingly powering shipping, but in international waters, shipping is almost entirely powered by fossil fuel, mainly bunker oil. Some 43% of maritime transport is busy merely moving fuel across the globe, so terminating fuel usage on land could in itself almost halve international shipping emissions. In addition to commercial emissions caused by shipping of fuel, there are also military emissions that are excluded in national totals, such as international use by the military of bunker fuels and jet fuel, greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption of bases abroad and the manufacture of equipment used by the military abroad. A large part of the military is busy securing and protecting global supply lines for fossil fuel, while burning huge amounts of fuel in the process. A 2019 analysis found that the US military's global supply chain and heavy reliance on carbon-based fuels make it the largest institutional consumer of oil and one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters, more than many countries worldwide. Disputes over possession of fossil fuel are behind many international conflicts. Instead, nations can each cater for their power needs more independently and securely by transitioning to clean, renewable energy. A large part of a nation's infrastructure is used to transport fuel domestically, including trucks driving on roads and highways, while also using tunnels and bridges, parking places and stations for refuelling, while additionally fuel is transported by trains, planes and vessels that need ports, railways stations and tracks, and a lot of fossil fuel is burned in the process of transporting the fuel and constructing and maintaining these facilities. Furthermore, part of the wood from forests and crops from farmland is used to supply biofuel, for use either to power vehicles, for heating or as fuel for power plants. Reducing the use of fuel will therefore also reduce nations getting into conflict with other nations, not only conflict over the possession of fossil fuel and over water to cool power plants, but also conflict over land and water that is used for agriculture and forestry to grow biofuel.The easiest way to reduce the cost of conflict is to take away the reason for conflict, which in this case is the use of land to produce fuel.In the video below, Robert Llewellyn interviews Mark Jacobson about The Climate Crisis. Clean, renewable energy in the form of electricity generated by solar panels and wind turbines is already more economic than burning fuel for energy. Shifting to clean energy will thus lower the cost of energy, while people will also be less burdened by the cost of associated conflicts, which is more than the cost of the military and police taking care to avoid conflict, as the cost is even larger than that if conflicts do escalate and cause destruction of infrastructure, damage to soil and ecosystems and loss of lives, health and livelihood for all involved. The comprehensive and effective action proposed by the Climate Plan can terminate the use of fuel and thus also reduce conflict, while additionally reducing the threat of runaway warming, and while additionally providing many environmental benefits and further benefits such as the termination of perceived needs for military forces to police global fuel supply lines and associated infrastructure. In conclusion, reducing the use of fuel will in itself further reduce demand for fuel and the cost of energy. Replacing fuel by clean, renewable energy can additionally cut the need for energy through greater efficiencies of electric motors, appliances and devices. As said, this will also reduce the need for land and water, and - this cannot be said enough - avoid or delay climate collapse and catastrophe. Air Taxis and Urban Redesign can further facilitate the necessary transformation Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxis can be an important component of the transformation of the way we travel, live, work and eat. Using eVTOL air taxis can reduce the need for roads and associated infrastructure, further freeing up land, while the transition to electricity generated with solar panels and wind turbines can additionally free up land that is now used by utilities and their associated infrastructure such as power plants, power poles and towers, communication poles, etc. This land can instead be used for community gardens, (food) forests, parks, etc. This doesn't have to be an instant shift. In existing cities, there already is a strong and growing movement to restrict the use of cars in city centers, and to instead add more walkways and bikeways. In this case, the roads will still be there, it's just their usage that changes. Another example is pipes. Many cities want to disconnect pipes that now supply natural gas to buildings, as it makes more sense to use electricity instead. The pipes will still be there, they just won't be used anymore, if at all. Digging up the pipes may make sense, but this may take some effort and time and it's therefore important that this issue is not used as an excuse to delay the rapid transition to the use of clean energy that is so urgently needed. It's important to look at longer-term and more radical redesign. The transition toward greater use of air taxis enables space previously used for roads to instead be used for more walkways and bikeways, as well as for trees, community gardens, etc. This should be incorporated as part of wider and longer-term planning and redesign of urban areas. In some places, this can lead to a more compact urban design, especially in city centers. After all, a lot of space becomes available as the use of roads for vehicle movements and for parking is reduced in an urban area, and this allows for more compact construction of new buildings and renovation of existing buildings that also reduces the distance between buildings, thus shortening the time it takes for trips by foot or bike in the city center, while there also will be plenty of opportunities for spaces to be created for air taxis to land and take off, e.g. in parks and on top of buildings. At the same time, air taxis enable trips of up to a few hundred miles to be completed fast, while using little energy and causing little emissions. Furthermore, more remote places can be economically reached by air taxis without a need for roads to lead them to these places or for railway stations to be located nearby. Drone delivery of goods and air taxis can enable more people to live outside urban areas. More people will be able to have goods delivered to their home and to reach urban amenities if and when they want to, and more economically compared to using cars and roads. The need for land and water to produce food and energy, and the need for land to transport goods and food can be reduced with the transitions to clean energy and to vegan-organic food. These transitions can also reduce the need for infrastructure such as pipes and poles for water supply, sewage, communications and power. Instead, we can have solar panels, microgrids, WiFi, rainwater tanks, biochar units, food forests and community gardens. The image below illustrates how policies recommended in the Climate Plan can further reduce the need for infrastructure by supporting eVTOL air taxis, while transforming the space thus gained into community gardens, walkways, bikeways, etc. [ from an earlier post ] In conclusion, the situation can best be addressed through action as described in the Climate Plan. Links • Climate Plan (page)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Plan (post)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/climate-plan.html• Climate Plan (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimatePlan• Air Taxis (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/AirTaxis• Biochar (group)https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar • Vegan Organic Food (group) https://www.facebook.com/groups/VeganOrganicFood • Secretary-General Warns of Unprecedented Global Hunger Crisis, with 276 Million Facing Food Insecurity, Calling for Export Recovery, Debt Relief (June 24, 2022) https://press.un.org/en/2022/sgsm21350.doc.htm • Confirm Methane's Importance https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html • Land Use - by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser https://ourworldindata.org/land-use• FAO - Water for Sustainable Food and Agriculturehttps://www.fao.org/3/i7959e/i7959e.pdf• 400,000 Pyrolysis Plants to Save the Climate - by Hans-Peter Schmidt and Nikolas Hagemann (2021) https://www.biochar-journal.org/en/ct/104• Greenhouse Gas Inventory Model for Biochar Additions to Soil - by Dominic Woolf et al. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.1c02425• Nitrogen fertiliser use could ‘threaten global climate goals’ https://www.carbonbrief.org/nitrogen-fertiliser-use-could-threaten-global-climate-goals• IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 7https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_07.pdf• Synergistic HNO3 H2SO4 NH3 upper tropospheric particle formation - by Mingyi Wang et al. (2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04605-4• IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 4https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_04.pdf• Low oxygen eddies in the eastern tropical North Atlantic: Implications for N2O cycling - by D. Grundle et al. (2017) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04745-y• Increased nitrous oxide emissions from Arctic peatlands after permafrost thaw - by Carolina Voigt et al. (2017) https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1702902114• Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries - by Mark Jacobson et al. https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2022/ee/d2ee00722c• Numerous Benefits of 100% Clean, Renewable Energy https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/numerous-benefits-of-100-clean-renewable-energy.html • How Much Water Do Power Plants Use? https://blog.ucsusa.org/john-rogers/how-much-water-do-power-plants-use-316• Why does the Carmichael coal mine need to use so much water?https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-carmichael-coal-mine-need-to-use-so-much-water-75923• View your government’s military emissions datahttps://militaryemissions.org • Military emissionshttps://militaryemissions.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/military-emissions_final.pdf • Emissions from fuels used for international aviation and maritime transport https://unfccc.int/topics/mitigation/workstreams/emissions-from-international-transport-bunker-fuels• Decarbonizing the maritime sector: Mobilizing coordinated action in the industry using an ecosystems approach https://unctad.org/news/decarbonizing-maritime-sector-mobilizing-coordinated-action-industry-using-ecosystems-approach• Assessing possible impacts on States of future shipping decarbonization https://unctad.org/news/assessing-possible-impacts-states-future-shipping-decarbonization • News release: No environmental justice, no positive peace — and vice versa https://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en/news/73129 • Study: A global analysis of interactions between peace and environmental sustainability - by Dahylia Simangan et al. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811622000210 • Also discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160237979779679 • Costs of War - Neta Crawford https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use%2C%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Revised%20November%202019%20Crawford.pdf

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: biochar, conflict, energy, fertilizer, infrastructure, Jim McHenry, Mark Jacobson, Paul Beckwith, Robert Llewellyn, society, transformation, transforming]

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[l] at 12/16/22 10:37pm
by Andrew GliksonIn his book ‘Collapse’ (2011) Jared Diamond portrays the fate of societies which Choose to Fail or Succeed. On a larger scale the Fermi’s paradox suggests that advanced technological civilizations may constitute ephemeral entities in the galaxy, destined to collapse over short periods. Such an interpretation of Fermi’s paradox, corroborated by recent terrestrial history, implies that the apparent absence of radio signals from Milky Way planets and beyond may be attributed to an inherently self-destructive nature of civilizations which reached the ability to propagate radio waves, consistent with Carl Sagan’s views. It can be expected therefore that the number of advanced technological societies in the universe will be proportional to their average lifetime, perhaps lasting no more than a few centuries. Inexplicably the behavior of Homo “sapiens” reveals the reality of Fermi’s paradox, unless humans can wake up in time. Since the onset of the Neolithic about ~10,000 years ago open-ended combustion of wood, coal, oil, methane and gas for production of steam power and electricity (Figure 1), and of uranium to generate nuclear power, constrain the life expectancy of industrial civilizations through proliferation of greenhouse gases, alteration of the chemistry of the atmosphere and proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, testifying to the relevance of Fermi’s paradox in the 20-21 centuries.Geological and astronomical studies establish Earth is unique among the terrestrial planets in harboring advanced life forms, including colonial life since as early as ~3.5 billion years ago. Should the fate of Homo sapiens be recorded, history would tell that, while the atmosphere was overheating, oceans acidifying and radioactivity rising, humans never ceased to saturate the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, mine uranium, unleash fatal wars and fire rockets at the planets. All the time indulging in sports games and inundating the airwaves with gratuitous words, false promises, misconstrued assumptions and simple lies ─ betraying their future generations and a multitude of species on the only haven of life known in the solar system. Fig. 1. A combined night lights image of Earth signifying global civilization. NASA In a new paper titled ‘Global warming in the pipeline’, Hansen et al. (2022) state: “glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO₂ with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m² larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2xCO₂ forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds ... A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade.” The inevitable consequence is a shift in the position of the Earth’s climate zones, a decline in the Earth’s albedo (a climatologically significant ~0.5 W/m² decrease over two decades), a rise in greenhouse gases at a geologically unprecedented rate of 2-3 ppm/year), acidification of the oceans (by about 26 percent), receding ice sheets, rising sea levels (~20 cm since 1900), changes in vegetation, forests and soils, a shift in state of the climate and mass extinction, with humans are driving around one million species to extinction. For longer than 50 years few were aware that a rise in atmospheric CO₂ on the scale of ~100 ppm CO₂ at the annual rate of 2 - 3 ppm per year, could lead to the unhabitability of large parts of Earth (The Uninhabitable Earth, by David Wallace-Wells) (Figure 2A). Now we find ourselves surrounded by the consequences ─ hydrocarbon saturation of air and water, runaway global heating, acidification, dissemination of micro-plastics, habitat destruction, radioactive overload, proliferation of chemical weapons ─ In confirmation of the reality of Fermi’s Paradox.  But just at the time the world was increasingly overwhelmed by extreme weather events, severe fires and floods, climate scientists were increasingly ignored, replaced by politicians, bureaucrats, economists, strategists and vested interests ignorant of the basic laws of physics and of the principles which control the atmosphere-ocean system. Policies and promises guided by the science have been betrayed and meaningful mitigation and adaptation negated by the opening of new coal mines and gas fields. Cold war strategies violating the United Nation charter were depleting the resources required for mitigation of the looming climate catastrophe. Within a blink of geological eye, at a rate unprecedented since the extinction of the dinosaurs, large regions of Earth were becoming increasingly uninhabitable for a multitude of species, surpassing 350 ppm CO₂ and approaching Miocene (5.3 – 23.0 Ma)-like conditions (Figure 2B). All along humans continued busily developing a veritable doomsday machine near 1300 nuclear warheads-strong threatening release within seconds. Fig. 2. (A) Upper Holocene temperatures. (B). The Middle Miocene long-term continental (brown) and marine (blue) temperature change. Red arrow points to the present (2022) average global temperature of 13.9°C NOAA. That humans are capable of committing the most horrendous crimes upon each other, on other species and on nature, including mass exterminations, has been demonstrated during the 20th century by the Nazi concentration camps and by genocidal conflicts such as in Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Rwanda, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Ukraine ─ the list goes on …  Fig. 3. Tsar Bomba, exploded above Novaya ZemlyaThe ultimate step toward the Fermi’s paradox has been reached following nuclear experiments in New Mexico, Novaya Zemlya (Figure 3), the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the rising prospects of a nuclear war, with consequent firestorms, radiation from fallout, a nuclear winter, and electromagnetic pulses looming ever greater. According to a paper by Robock and Toon (2012) ‘Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war’, a thermonuclear war could lead to the end of modern civilization, due to a long-lasting nuclear winter and the destruction of crops. In one model the average temperature of Earth during a nuclear winter, where black smoke from cities and industries rise into the upper stratosphere, lowers global temperatures by 7 – 8° Celsius for several years.As stated by Hansen et al. (2012): “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”.A nuclear war in the background of carbon saturated atmosphere can only lead to extreme damage to the life support systems of the planet. The propensity of “sapiens” to genocide and ecocide, are hardly masked by the prevailing Orwellian language of politicians in the absence of meaningful action to avert the demise of the biosphere as we know it. Whereas the ultimate consequences of global heating are likely to occur within a century, including temperature polarities including heat waves and regional cooling of ocean regions by ice melt flow from Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets (Gikson 2019), a nuclear war on the scale of the MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) can erupt on a time scale of minutes … On July 16, 1945, witnessing the atomic test at the Trinity site, New Mexico, Robert Oppenheimer, the chief nuclear scientist (Figure 4), cited the Hindu scripture of Shiva from the Bhagavad Gita: “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”. Then, as stated by Albert Einstein: “The splitting of the atom has changed everything, except for man’s way of thinking, and thus we drift into unparalleled catastrophes”.Fig. 4. Robert Oppenheimer and Albert Einstein in 1947Andrew GliksonA/Professor Andrew GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of New South Wales,Kensington NSW 2052 Australia16 December 2022Books:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679 

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, Fermi paradox, nuclear war]

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[l] at 12/15/22 10:32pm
Earlier this year, on February 25, Antarctic sea ice extent was at an all-time record low of 1.924 million km², as the above image shows. Throughout the year, Antarctic sea ice extent has been low. On December 14, 2022, Antarctic sea ice was merely 9.864 million km² in extent. Only in 2016 was Antarctic sea ice extent lower at that time of year, and - importantly - 2016 was a strong El Niño year. The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon. Meanwhile, ocean heat content keeps rising due to high levels of greenhouse gases, as illustrated by the image on the right. Rising ocean heat causes sea ice to melt from below, resulting in less sea ice, which in turn means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and more sunlight gets absorbed as heat in the ocean, making it a self-reinforcing feedback loop that further speeds up sea ice loss. The currently very rapid decline in sea ice concentration around Antarctica is illustrated by the animation of Climate Reanalyzer images on the right, showing Antarctic sea ice on November 16, November 29 and December 15, 2022. In 2012, a research team led by Jemma Wadham studied Antarctica, concluding that an amount of 21,000 Gt or billion tonnes or petagram (1Pg equals 10¹⁵g) of organic carbon is buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet, as discussed in an earlier post. The potential amount of methane hydrate and free methane gas beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet could be up to 400 billion tonnes. The predicted shallow depth of these potential reserves also makes them more susceptible to climate forcing than other methane hydrate reserves on Earth, describes the news release.“We are sleepwalking into a catastrophe for humanity. We need to take notice right now. It is already happening. This is not a wait-and-see situation anymore," Jemma Wadham said more recently. Ominously, high concentrations of methane have been recorded over Antarctica recently. The image below shows methane as recorded by the Metop-B satellite on November 28, 2022 pm at 399 mb. The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice graphhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - ocean heat contenthttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/index.html• Climate Reanalyzer sea ice concentrationhttps://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=seaice-snowc&ortho=7&wt=1• Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica - Press release University of Bristol (2012) https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2012/8742.html• Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica - by Jemma Wadham et al. (2012) https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11374 • A new frontier in climate change science: connections between ice sheets, carbon and food webshttps://cage.uit.no/2021/05/19/a-new-frontier-for-climate-science-the-evidence-for-glaciers-as-methane-producers-has-exploded-in-recent-years• Metop-B satellite readingshttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Antarctica, Jemma Wadham, sea ice]

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[l] at 12/12/22 5:13am
WMO Report on Greenhouse Gases In 2020 and 2021, the global network of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) detected the largest within-year increases (15 and 18 ppb, respectively) of atmospheric methane (CH₄) since systematic measurements began in the early 1980s. [ IPCC/WMO data through 2021 ]The image on the right illustrates methane's rise, showing IPCC and, more recently, WMO data. Methane reached 1908 parts per billion (ppb) in 2021, 262% of the 1750 level, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached 415.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2021, 149% of the 1750 level, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 334.5 ppb, 124% of the 1750 level. The WMO adds that analyses of measurements of the abundances of atmospheric CH₄ and its stable carbon isotope ratio ¹³C/¹²C (reported as δ¹³C(CH₄)) indicate that the increase in CH₄ since 2007 is associated with biogenic processes. Methane's rise has been accelerating since 2007, which makes this a scary suggestion, as increasing decomposition of plant material as a result of climate change is a self-reinforcing feedback loop that is hard to stop. Interestingly, a different explanation is pointed at in the 2019 analysis is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane?. Another explanation, discussed in an earlier post, is that there was a slowdown from 1984 to 2004 in the rise of methane as a result of rising temperatures increasing the water vapor in the atmosphere, resulting in more hydroxyl decomposing more methane in the atmosphere in the 1990s (compared to the 1980s). Accordingly, while the rise in methane concentration appeared to slow down over those years, methane emissions actually kept growing and continued to do so at accelerating pace, but since an increasingly large part of methane was decomposed by hydroxyl, this continuing rise in methane emissions was overlooked.This could still mean that plant material is now getting decomposed at higher rates, but an even larger danger is that methane emissions started to increase more strongly from the early 2000s due in part to more methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. In other words, while hydroxyl kept increasing, seafloor methane emissions kept increasing even faster, to the extent that methane emissions increasingly started to overwhelm this growth in hydroxyl, resulting in a stronger rise in overall methane abundance in the atmosphere. Sadly, there are few measurements available for methane that could erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, WMO and NOAA data that are used to calculate global means are typically taken at marine surface level, which may be appropriate for carbon dioxide that is present more strongly at sea surface level, but methane is much lighter and will rise quickly and accumulate at higher altitude, as indicated by the satellite images further below. Moreover, the lack of measurements of methane over the Arctic Ocean and at higher altitudes makes it hard to determine from where the methane originated. Much methane could originate from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and rise to the Tropopause, while moving from there closer to the Equator, all largely without getting reported.  What's happening in 2022?So, what's happening in 2022? Well, it appears that the rise in methane keeps accelerating, as illustrated by the image below showing daily average methane measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, since 2001.The image below shows methane in situ measurements at Barrow, Alaska, indicating that methane is present in even higher abundance over the Arctic and that levels are rising fast over the Arctic. The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows a forecast for October 27, 2022, 03 UTC at 500 hPa. High levels of methane show up over the Arctic. The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1981 ppb at 293 mb on October 2, 2022 am, while plenty of methane was present over the Arctic Ocean at the three altitudes shown on compilation image below. The MetOp-B satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2901 ppb at 293 mb on October 20, 2022 am, while plenty of methane was again present over the Arctic Ocean at the three altitudes shown on the compilation image below.This supports the possibility that large amounts of methane are getting released from the Arctic Ocean, with even more to follow.While the IPCC keeps hiding the potential for a huge rise in temperature by 2026, as discussed in an earlier post, a recently-published article points out that prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. How bad could it be? A 2016 analysis warned that there could be a temperature rise of more than 10°C from pre-industral by 2026. An additional danger is that, as methane keeps rising, the clouds tipping point could be crossed even earlier than in 2026. Let's re-evaluate these dangers.  The above 1981 ppb mean methane level translates into 396.2 ppm CO₂e at a 1-year GWP of 200. Destabilization of sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could cause a large abrupt burst of methane to enter the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean. A doubling of the mean methane level could push up the mean methane level to twice as much, to 792.4 ppm CO₂e, which is only 407.6 ppm CO₂ away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point that on its own could push up the temperature by some 8°C globally. This gap of 407.6 ppm CO₂ could be more than covered by the current carbon dioxide level. The September 2022 CO₂ level at Mauna Loa was higher than that, i.e. 415.96 ppm. Since the CO₂ level at Mauna Loa in September typically is at its lowest point for the year, this implies that a large abrupt burst of methane could cause the the clouds tipping point to be instantly crossed due to methane and CO₂ alone.Note that there are additional forcers, such as CFCs, while there are also further events and developments that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, as further discussed below. The scary situation therefore is that the clouds tipping point could be instantly crossed with a burst of methane that is far smaller in size than the methane already in the atmosphere. Such a burst of methane could be released at any time, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. [ from earlier post ]That's not even the worst-case scenario. In the above calculation, global mean methane levels are used. However, there is a possibility that low-lying clouds could at first break up and vanish abruptly at one specific point, due to a high methane peak, and that this could lead to break-up of neighboring clouds, propagating break-up across the globe and thus pushing up the temperature rise virtually instantly by some 8°C globally. The MetOp satellite recorded a peak methane level of 3644 ppb and a mean level of 1944 ppb at 367 mb on November 21, 2021, pm, as discussed in an earlier post. This 3644 ppb translates into 728.8 ppm CO₂e, again at a 1-year GWP of 200. This is 471.2 ppm CO₂e away from the clouds tipping point and that 471.2 ppm CO₂e could be covered by the carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and CFCs currently in the atmosphere. How high could the temperature rise be by 2026?  There are a number of scenarios that could cause the clouds tipping point to be crossed soon, e.g. if the rise in methane kept following a trend as depicted in the image below, showing WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundance, with a trend added.[ click on images to enlarge ]The trend points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm CO₂e by the end of 2026, implying that when including further forcers the clouds tipping point could be crossed in 2026. Furthermore, the trend points at 1200 ppm CO₂e getting crossed in 2028 due to the forcing of methane alone. Even without such an increase in methane, a huge temperature rise could eventuate by 2026, first of all due to a cataclysmic alignment of El Niño and sunspots.We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, and this suppresses the temperature rise at the moment.The next El Niño is already overdue, so the peak of the next El Niño may well coincide with a peak in sunspots which look set to reach a higher than expected maximum impact around July 2025. The rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C, concluded an earlier post.Moving from the bottom of the current La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as indicated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. Therefore, the rise due to the combined impact of El Niño and sunspots could be 0.65°C by 2025. When adding this to the temperature rise that has already occurred and that, when measured from pre-industrial could be as high as 2.29°C, the total land-ocean global temperature rise could be as high as 2.94°C by 2025,  while the rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could peak at more than 3°C above pre-industrial, noting that when there was a strong El Niño in February 2016, the land-only monthly anomaly from 1880-1920 was 2.95°C, as illustrated by the image below. [ from earlier post ]Such a huge rise could cause heatwaves and droughts that could result in a huge peak in power demand, as everyone switches on their air conditioners, while at the same time rivers could either dry up or their water could become too hot to cool power plants. This could bring the grid down, which would mean that coal-fired power plants would stop emitting sulfates.[ from Track Buckling Research ]This could mean that equipment and appliances that need electricity such as heaters and air conditioners could stop working. Electric pumps could stop working, so there may no longer be water coming out of taps. The internet could stop working where routers require power from the grid. Furthermore, the heat could cause asphalt and tarmac to melt and rail tracks to buckle, while airports could be closed, not only because the surface of the runway could get too hot, but also because the air could become too thin for planes to take off due to the heat. In short, traffic, transport and industrial activities such as smelting, which are emitting a lot of sulfates as well at the moment, could grind to a halt at many places on the Northern Hemisphere. The result would be a large reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming (mainly sulfates). [ see the Extinction page ] How much difference could it make? The IPCC in AR6 estimates the aerosol ERF to be −1.3 W m⁻², adding that there has been an increase in the estimated magnitude of the total aerosol ERF relative to AR5. In AR6, the IPCC estimate for liquid water path (LWP, i.e., the vertically integrated cloud water) adjustment is 0.2 W m⁻², but a recent analysis found a forcing from LWP adjustment of −0.76 W m⁻², which would mean that the IPCC estimate of −1.3 W m⁻² should be changed to -2.26 W m⁻². When using a sensitivity of ¾°C per W m⁻², this translates into an impact of -1.695°C. Since the IPCC's total for aerosols includes a net positive impact for warming aerosols such as black carbon, the impact of cooling aerosols only (without warming aerosols) will be even more negative. This supports the 2016 analysis that warned that by 2026 there could be a 1.9°C temperature rise due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, while there could be an additional 0.6°C temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires by 2026. So, together with the upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, that could result in a total rise by 2026 of 5.44°C above pre-industrial. There's more to come! Additionally, the 2016 analysis warned about further rises in temperature due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes, as well as further rises due to gases, concluding that there could be a temperature rise by 2026 of more than 10°C compared to pre-industrial. With a temperature rise of more than 10°C by 2026, the clouds tipping point will also be crossed, which would result in a total rise of more than 18°C by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post. The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• WMO - More bad news for the planet: greenhouse gas levels hit new highs https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/more-bad-news-planet-greenhouse-gas-levels-hit-new-highs• WMO - Greenhouse Gas Bulletin https://public.wmo.int/en/greenhouse-gas-bulletin• Ideas and perspectives: is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane? - by Robert Howarthhttps://bg.copernicus.org/articles/16/3033/2019• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratoryhttps://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv• Copernicus methane at 500 hPa, forecast for October 18, 2022, 03 UTChttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2022101800,3,2022101803&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa• What the IPCC impacts report is hidinghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/what-the-ipcc-impacts-report-is-hiding.html• Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios - by Luke Kemp et al.https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2108146119Also discussed at:https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160138721434679• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty waterhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/arctic-ocean-invaded-by-hot-salty-water.html• NOAA - MetOp satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• The Importance of Methane in Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• Overshoot or Omnicide?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html• Human Extinction by 2022?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html • Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for September 2022, retrieved October 16, 2022https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202209/supplemental/page-4• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Crossing 3Chttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/09/crossing-3c.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Track Buckling Research https://www.volpe.dot.gov/infrastructure-systems-and-technology/structures-and-dynamics/track-buckling-research• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: aerosols, clouds feedback, clouds tipping point, GWP, methane]

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