[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 8/10/22 7:20am
Ocean currents keep pushing heat toward the Arctic OceanArctic sea ice is getting very thin, as temperatures keep rising and ocean currents keeps pushing warm water toward the Arctic, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, showing sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on August 8, 2022. Latent heatLatent heat is ocean heat that is, or rather was previously consumed by melting of the sea ice underneath the sea surface. [ The Latent Heat Buffer ] This ice has meanwhile all but disappeared, so without this latent heat buffer further incoming heat must go elsewhere, i.e. the heat will further raise the temperature of the water and it will also cause more evaporation to take place where the sea ice has disappeared altogether, and this in turn will further heat up the atmosphere over the Arctic. Thin layer of sea ice The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 9, 2022, with concentration in a large area close to the North Pole as low as 0%. The image below, from NSIDC, also shows sea ice concentration on August 9, 2022. There still is a relatively extensive but very thin layer of sea ice present at the surface, due to the suppression of air temperatures that comes with the current La Niña. As long as air temperatures are low enough to keep this surface ice frozen and as long as there are no strong winds pushing the ice out of the Arctic Ocean, this thin layer of ice will act as a seal, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.  The larger the remaining sea ice is in extent, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, which means that more heat will remain in the Arctic Ocean.[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]The danger is that ocean heat keeps arriving in the Arctic Ocean, while the latent heat buffer is gone. As a result, more of this heat could reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening to destabilize hydrates in these sediment, resulting in methane eruptions both from these hydrates and from free gas underneath these hydrates.Record high methane levels Methane levels are already at record high and growth is accelerating, even without an extra burst of seafloor methane.NOAA registered a globally averaged marine surface April 2022 mean of 1909.9 ppb, which is 18.7 ppb higher than April 2022, as illustrated by the image on the right. By comparison, the highest annual growth on the NOAA record is 18.31 ppb for 2021. NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements.  More methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes, as illustrated by the image on the right.The MetOp satellite recorded a mean global methane level of 1969 ppb at 293 mb on August 4, 2022 pm. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 393.8 ppm CO₂e. As the image underneath also shows, the MetOp satellite also recorded a peak methane level of 2882 ppb at 469 mb on August 8, 2022 pm. Record high carbon dioxide levelsCarbon dioxide (CO₂) levels have been quite high over the past few months. Monthly CO₂ was 420.99 ppm both in May and in June 2022. Some hourly CO₂ measurements were well above 422 ppm in May 2022. On May 28, 2022, one hourly average at Mauna Loa was recorded of 424 ppm.When adding this monthly CO₂ concentration of 420.99 ppm and the above 393.8 ppm CO₂e for methane, that gives a total of 814.79 ppm CO₂e. Clouds feedbackThe clouds tipping point could be crossed due to an additional 5 Gt of methane from an abrupt eruption of the seafloor, which is only 10% of the 50 Gt that Natalia Shakhova et al. warned about long ago, while 50 Gt is in turn only a small fraction of all the methane contained in sediments in the Arctic. On its own, such an eruption of seafloor methane could raise the global mean methane concentration by another 1969 ppb which, at a 1-year GWP of 200, would translate into another 393.8 ppm CO₂e, which when added to the above 814.79 ppm CO₂e, gives a total of 1208.59 ppm CO₂e.[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]So, that would abruptly cause the joint CO₂e of just two greenhouse gases, i.e. methane and CO₂, to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point and trigger a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback alone.There are further forcers and feedbacks to be taken into account, which means that the clouds tipping point could be crossed even with a far smaller abrupt release of seafloor methane. While it would take longer for the clouds tipping points to get crossed that way, the associated temperature rise could be enough to drive humans into extinctions well before the tipping point was even reached. A rise of 3°C above pre-industrial could occur on land and drive humans into extinction by 2025. La Niña[ adapted from NOAA - click on images to enlarge ]As said, sea ice extent is relatively large at the moment, because we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which is suppressing the temperature rise. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon. The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).  Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause even more dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise.ConclusionIn conclusion, there is a growing risk that methane will erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which could cause a dramatic rise in temperature. Even without such eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, temperatures could rise strongly, as we move into an El Niño and face a peak in sunspots. The resulting temperature rise could  drive humans extinct as early as in 2025 with temperatures continuing to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Arctic sea ice on previous months• Arctic sea ice June 2022 - why the situation is so dangeroushttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/arctic-sea-ice-june-2022-why-situation-is-so-dangerous.html• Arctic sea ice July 2022https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2022.htmlFurther links• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Chartshttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice concentrationhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Methanehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heat Bufferhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Human Extinction by 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, clouds feedback, hydrates, latent heat, methane, tipping point]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 7/24/22 12:28am
Blue Ocean EventA Blue Ocean Event occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean). According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km².The image on the right shows a trend pointing at zero Arctic sea ice volume by September 2027.Note that the volume data in the image are averages for the month September ⁠— the minimum for each year is even lower. Furthermore, since zero volume implies zero extent, this indicates that a Blue Ocean Event (extent below 1 million km²) could happen well before 2027.Sea ice concentrationAnother measure than sea ice extent or  volume is sea ice concentration. The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows sea ice concentration on July 22, 2022, with concentration in many areas close to the North Pole down to 0%. Sea ice thickness and NASA Worldview satellite imagesThe NASA Worldview satellite images below give a good idea of how much sea ice is still present in the Arctic, or how little, especially north of the North Pole. The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to July 16, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added. The above animation shows a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting. The University of Bremen combination image below shows the difference in sea ice thickness between June 1, 2022, June 30, 2022, and July 22, 2022. The images at the center and on the right show large areas where sea ice is less than 20 cm thick, indicating that the latent heat buffer had already disappeared in June 2022,  as also discussed further below. The NASA Worldview combination image below shows the sea ice north of Greenland on July 19, 2022 (top), and on July 22, 2022, illustrating that even at places where the sea ice was the thickest, it can disappear rapidly. As thick ice breaks off and fragments, it gets heat up more from the sides, accelerating the melting. Ocean heatOf the extra heat from Earth's energy imbalance, about 93% ends up in the ocean as increasing ocean heat content (see image below), 3% goes into melting ice, 4% goes into raising temperatures of land and melting permafrost, and less than 1% remains in the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. [ from earlier post ]Sea ice has disappeared in the Bering Strait, in part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.6°C or 65.48°F.On July 19, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Arctic Ocean was as high as 14.0°C or 25.2°F (at green circle), as illustrated by the screenshot below of a nullschool.net image (with text added). In 1981-2011, the sea surface temperature at this spot (green circle) at this time of year in the Kara Sea was around freezing point.The above image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa) moving over the Arctic ocean, instead of circumventing the Arctic and thus keeping heat out of the Arctic and keeping cold inside the Arctic, as it used to be.  The above NOAA image illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.2°C or 89.96°F on July 20, 2022.Latent heatLatent heat is heat that is (less and less) going into melting the sea ice. The reason this heat is called latent (hidden) heat, is that it doesn't raise the temperature of the water, but instead gets consumed in the process of melting the ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melting). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.Once most of the sea ice that was hanging underneath the surface is gone, further heat will still keep moving underneath the sea ice from the Atlantic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. Without the latent heat buffer, this heat must go elsewhere, i.e. it will typically raise the temperature of the water. The atmosphere will also warm up faster. More evaporation will occur once the sea ice is gone, further warming up the atmosphere.A 2019 analysis concludes that the latent heat tipping point gets crossed when the sea surface temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere gets higher than 1°C above 20th century's temperature and when there is little or no thick sea ice left. As the image below indicates, the temperature anomaly of 1°C above the 20th century average looks set to be crossed in the course of the year 2021.[ from the post Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water ]As the Latent Heat Tipping Point gets crossed, there may still be a thin layer of ice at the surface, at least as long as air temperatures are low enough to keep it frozen and as long as strong winds haven't pushed the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. This thin layer of ice will still consume some ocean heat below the surface, but at the same time it acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere. Even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean.One huge danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, more heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and resulting in releases of methane from these hydrates and from free gas underneath that was previously sealed by the hydrates.As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years. [ feedback #14: Latent Heat ]The above 2014 image, from the feedbacks page, shows three of the numerous feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic. Feedback #1 is the albedo feedback. Feedback #14 refers to the loss of the Latent Heat Buffer and warming of the Arctic Ocean. Feedback #2 refers to methane releases. Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo could push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, while the additional methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years. [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]ConclusionIn conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Blue Ocean Event https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html• Naval Research Laboratoryhttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NASA Worldview satellitehttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov• NOAA - sea surface temperaturehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Latent Heat Bufferhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Human Extinction by 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Blue Ocean Event, concentration, feedbacks, latent heat, methane, ocean heat, thickness]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 7/13/22 3:42am
Earth's energy imbalance, defined as the absorbed solar radiation minus the net outgoing longwave radiation, is arguably the most important metric related to climate change, argue Kevin Trenberth et al. in a recent article.One could also argue that the most important metric related to climate change is the crossing of 3°C above pre-industrial by monthly mean surface temperatures on land, as illustrated by the above image created with NASA content. After all, most people live on land and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial, according to a 2019 analysis in an earlier post. A temperature rise of 3°C is unlikely to stop there, even if all activities by humans would stop, including their emissions. Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in June 2022 was 420.99 ppm, a joint record high with May 2022, as illustrated by the above image. Carbon dioxide levels this high are likely to keep adding ocean heat for some time, especially since additional emissions will result from decomposing biomass and fires globally, while the sulfate masking effect will fall away. Furthermore, we're moving into a new El Niño, which could coincide with a peak in sunspots in 2025, as illustrated by the image on the right and discussed in the post Cataclysmic Alignment.All this looks set to contribute to a further rise in temperature, with the danger of causing ocean temperatures to increase to the point where there will be massive eruptions of seafloor methane contributing to the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed, which in itself could push up temperatures by a further 8°C and cause extinction of most life on Earth, as the 2019 analysis warns.Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as also discussed at the Extinction page. In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly and drive humans into extinction as early as in 2025. Temperatures could continue to rise afterwards, and drive most life on Earth into extinction soon thereafter, making it the more important to do the right thing now and help avoid the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan at: Links• A perspective on climate change from Earth's energy imbalance - by Kevin Trenberth et al. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6f74• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html• When will we die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa, Hawaii https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Cataclysmic Alignment https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: clouds feedback, near-term human extinction, pre-industrial]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 6/21/22 12:29am
Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly in June 2022. On June 19, 2022, Arctic sea ice extent was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by above image, adapted from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC Chartic).The image below, from an animation by Zachary Labe, shows Arctic sea ice extent up to June 20, 2022, based on Vishop data. The yellow line is the year 2022. The white line shows extent for the year 2012, when it reached a record minimum in September. The blue line shows extent the year 2020, when the minimum in September was second lowest.  The image below, adapted from Vishop, shows that on June 19, 2022, global sea ice extent was close to a record low for the time of year. [ adapted from NOAA ] The fact that sea ice is so low for the time of the year is the more striking as we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses the temperature rise.El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon. The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.The NSIDC compilation below illustrates how much multi-year sea ice has already declined over the years. The top panel shows the age of Arctic sea ice for the March 12 to 18 period in (a) 1985 and (b) 2022. The oldest ice, greater than 4 years old, is in red. Plot (c) shows the timeseries from 1985 through 2022 of percent cover of the Arctic Ocean domain (inset, purple region) by different sea ice ages during the March 12 to 18 period. On June 18, 2022, Arctic sea ice volume was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Polarportal. The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to June 18, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added.The animation shows a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area, while sea ice is disappearing altogether in some places. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting.The University of Bremen image below also shows sea ice thickness, on June 19, 2022. Close to the coast of Siberia, where much of the sea ice has disappeared altogether, the decline is due for a large part to warm water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.  Sea ice has disappeared altogether in the Bering Strait, for a great part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, especially the Yukon River, the Kuskokwim River and the Copper River, as illustrated by the above NOAA image, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 15.6°C or 60.08°F.On June 10, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Bering Strait was as high as 15.5°C or 27.9°F (at green circle), illustrated by the above nullschool.net image. In 1981-2011, the Bering Strait was still largely frozen at this time of year.The NOAA image below illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on June 19, 2022.  Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo will push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic.  But even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean. As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.  [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] ConclusionIn conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Links• NSIDC - Charctichttps://nsidc.org/arct.../charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Zachary Labe - sea ice extent and concentration https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration• Vishop sea ice data https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent • NSIDC - Springtime in the Arctic https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2022/05/springtime-in-the-arctic • NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Polarportalhttps://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume• Naval Research Laboratoryhttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• University of Bremenhttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser• NOAA - sea surface temperaturehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html• nullschoolhttps://nullschool.net• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, Arctic, dangerous, extent, methane, ocean, rise, sea ice, temperature, thickness, volume]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 6/5/22 4:23am
Record high carbon dioxide The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere just broke two records. CO₂ was 421.46 in the week starting May 22, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, while CO₂ was 420.99 ppm in May 2022. Earlier, very high daily and hourly measurements were recorded at Mauna Loa, as illustrated by the image below, showing one hourly measurement of 424 ppm (on May 28, 2022), as well as sequences of daily measurements in the green insets. The image below shows carbon dioxide concentration rising over the past few years, with surface flask measurements well above 422 ppm at Mauna Loa recently. Carbon dioxide concentration is even higher over the Arctic. The image below shows carbon dioxide approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska. To get an idea how much greenhouse gases have risen, a 2021 study points at concentrations of 190 ppm for CO₂, 370-375 ppb for CH₄ and 200-245 ppb for N₂O some 18 ka to 21 ka. By comparison, the MetOp image below shows a global mean methane level that is more than five times as high, i.e. 1945 ppb at 293 mb on May 25, 2022 am.  The MetOp image below shows methane on May 30, 2022 pm, at 742 mb, which is much closer to sea level. The NOAA 20 image below shows high nitrous oxide levels over the Arctic on June 3, 2022 pm at 1000 mb.Greenhouse gas levels are very high and there are many further indications that a huge temperature rise could take place over the next few years. Cataclysmic alignment of El Niño and sunspots  The trigger for such a huge rise could be a cataclysmic alignment of the upcoming El Niño with a high number of sunspots, which look set to reach maximum impact around July 2025.We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This suppresses the temperature rise. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon. The above NOAA image shows that the difference in temperature between the bottom of a La Niña and the peak of an El Niño can be more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F). A huge temperature rise looks set to unfold soon, first of all in the Arctic, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots.  Sunspots are currently well above what NOAA predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. The more sunspot, the more the temperature goes up. The rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026. A huge temperature rise in the ArcticThere are many further indications that we're on the brink of a huge temperature rise in the Arctic. Ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising. As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km². [ from the Extinction page ]As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline. Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O). Global temperature rise This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane. Temperatures looks set to rise further, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place. As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page. Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page. Conclusion In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly soon, driving humans extinct by 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. Links • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum - by Matthew Osman et al. (2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03984-4 • Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html • NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf • NOAA - El Niñohttps://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino#:~:text=An%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20condition%20occurs,every%203%20to%205%20years. • NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-4• MetOp satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA 20 satellitehttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• NOAA - sunspotshttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression • Latent heat https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html • Blue Ocean Eventhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html • Feedbacks https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html • Aerosols https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html • Clouds feedback and tipping point https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • Jet Stream https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html • The Importance of Methane https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html • When Will We Die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: alignment, Arctic, cataclysmic, El Niño, ENSO, loss, rise, sea ice, sunspots, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 5/16/22 2:50am
NOAA data show a carbon dioxide level of 421.13 parts per million (ppm) for the week starting May 8, 2022, a new record high since measurements started at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. As the image below also shows, very high daily levels were reached recently, as high as 422.04 ppm. Greenhouse gas levels are even higher further north. Very high carbon dioxide levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, approaching 430 ppm. Furthermore, very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, including many at levels well over 2000 parts per billion (ppb).The trigger: El Niño and sunspotsEl Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niños can be expected to occur within the next few years. As also illustrated by the NOAA image on the right, we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña and this suppresses current temperatures.A huge temperature rise in the Arctic looks set to unfold soon, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots. Sunspots are currently well above expected levels, as illustrated by the image below on the right.Huge temperature rise in ArcticAdditionally, greenhouse gas levels are very high over the Arctic, while the ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising.  As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km². As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, while loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.[ from the Extinction page ]Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).Global temperature riseThis would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methaneTemperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page.Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page.ConclusionIn conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly by 2026, resulting in humans going extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Pointshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html• NOAA - El Niñohttps://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino#:~:text=An%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20condition%20occurs,every%203%20to%205%20years.• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niñohttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-4• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• NOAA - sunspotshttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• Latent heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Blue Ocean Eventhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• Clouds feedback and tipping pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• The Importance of Methanehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, carbon dioxide, El Niño, extinction, feedbacks, methane, rise, sunspots, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 4/28/22 12:21am
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached an average daily concentration of 422.06 ppm on April 26, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.Furthermore, very high methane levels were recorded recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, with surface flask readings appearing to be as high as 1955 ppb.  This daily average CO₂ concentration of 422.06 ppm together with a methane level of 1955 ppb (which at a GWP of 200 corresponds with 391 ppm CO₂e), adds up to a joint CO₂e of 813.06 ppm, i.e. less than 387 ppm away from the clouds tipping point that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.Such a 387 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in posts such as this one. [ images and joint CO₂e earlier discussed at this post, click on images to enlarge ]The 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point could be crossed even without such an abrupt methane release. Carbon dioxide and methane levels are rising rapidly. The above combination image illustrates how, by the year 2029, carbon dioxide could reach 450 ppm and methane could reach 3840 ppb, which would yield a joint CO₂e of 1218 ppm and thus raise the global temperature by 8°C due to the clouds feedback alone, in addition to the rise caused by nitrous oxide and the many further forcers, as discussed at the Extinction page. The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan. Links • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Methane (surface flasks) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO• The Importance of Methanehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html• Clouds feedback https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Methane rise is accelerating https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/03/methane-rise-is-accelerating.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Changehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/shortcomings-of-ipcc-ar6-wgiii-mitigation-of-climate-change.html • Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: carbon dioxide, clouds feedback, methane, rise, seafloor, temperature, tipping point]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 4/16/22 6:37am
March 2022 temperature anomalyThe NASA image below shows the March 2021 temperature anomaly. The Arctic is heating up strongly. The above image shows a temperature rise for March 2022 of 1.06°C, which is the rise from 1951-1980. The image below shows a temperature rise from 1900 for March 2022 of 1.36°C. The box on above image shows that, when including further adjustment, the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35°C. Details of the adjustment are described at the pre-industrial page. A 2.35°C rise is only 0.65°C away from a 3°C rise and, as described before, a 3°C rise will likely drive humans (and many other species) into extinction. Note that the March 2022 temperature is suppressed, as we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. The above NOAA image shows that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius. The next El Niño may well go hand in hand with a high number of sunspots (NOAA image right). The image below features two trends. The black trend is based on adjusted 1880-March 2022 NASA data and shows how 3°C could be crossed by 2029. The blue trend is based on adjusted 2012-March 2022 NASA data and better reflects short-term variables such as sunspots and El Niño. The blue trend shows how 3°C could be crossed by 2027, triggered by an emerging El Niño and high sunspots. Not only could the combination of strong a strong El Niño with high sunspots suffice to cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C by 2025, it could trigger a runaway temperature rise by 2026. Runaway temperature riseThe potential temperature rise is illustrated by the bar on the right.As temperatures rise, loss of Arctic sea ice and of its latent heat buffer will cause more heating of the atmosphere, while changes to the Jet Stream will cause more extreme weather. As humans go extinct, transport and industrial activities will stop that currently co-emit sulfur that masks the full extent of the temperature rise. In addition, as also discussed at the aerosols page, worldwide forest fires and trash fires could cause huge amounts of black carbon to be emitted. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As the IPCC warns (see above image), for each additional 1°C of warming, the global volume of perennially frozen ground to 3 m below the surface is projected to decrease by about 25% relative to the present volume, and the IPCC adds that these decreases may be underestimates. As permafrost declines, huge amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide get released. As the ocean heats up, a huge temperature rise could be caused by releases of seafloor methane, further contributing to the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) to get crossed, causing a further rise of 8°C. Altogether, the temperature rise could exceed 18°C.The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.Links• NASA Gistemp https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202203/supplemental/page-4• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Solar cycle sunspots progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• IPCC - FAQ on water vaporhttps://wg1.ipcc.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/faq/wg1_faq-3.2.html• IPCC - AR6 WG1 TS on permafrosthttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: 2026, El Nino, rise, runaway, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 4/9/22 12:41am
[ click on images to enlarge ]Above image is adapted from content by IPCC AR6 WGII and Peter Carter, expert IPCC reviewer and director of the Climate Emergency Institute. The IPCC keeps hiding how much the temperature could already have risen and could rise over the next few years, the associated dangers, and the policies that could most effectively improve the situation. 1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC's use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn't pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for. Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial, a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a total temperature rise from pre-industrial to January 2022 of 2.3°C. 2. Hiding the potential rise to comeWhile a huge temperature rise has already unfolded, the rise is accelerating, as discussed at earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, an example from an earlier post.  In other words, an even larger temperature rise threatens to unfold soon, i.e. this could happen over the course of at few years, as illustrated by the stacked bar next to the cartoon above and as discussed at the extinction page. 3. Hiding the largest dangersThe rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise. What would be the impact of a 3°C, a 4°C, or a 5°C rise?  At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, as habitat for humans (and many other species) will disappear. Such a rise will cause a rapid decline of the snow and ice cover around the globe, in turn making that less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Associated changes are discussed in more detail at this page and this page, and include that the jet stream will further get out of shape, resulting in more extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and firestorms. Changes to the jet stream will also contribute to a further strengthening of storms, which threatens to at times push large amounts of hot, salty water into the Arctic Ocean, triggering eruptions of more and more seafloor methane, as discussed in an earlier post. [ from an earlier post  ] From a 4°C rise, Earth will experience a moist-greenhouse scenario. As the temperature rise gains further momentum, runaway heating may well turn Earth into a lifeless planet, a danger that was discussed in this 2013 post, warning that, without anything stopping the rise, it will continue to eventually destroy the ozone layer and the ice caps, while the oceans would be evaporating into the atmosphere's upper stratosphere and eventually disappear into space. At 5°C rise, most life on Earth will have gone extinct. A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). As the temperature keeps rising, chances are that all life on Earth will go extinct, as Earth would be left with no ozone layer to protect life from deadly UV-radiation. Furthermore, Earth would no longer have water, an essential building block of life. Soil moisture, groundwater and water in oceans would evaporate and eventually disappear into space, as discussed in an earlier post. Much of the above was discussed earlier at Most Important Message Ever. [ from the post When will we die? ] A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity. 4. Hiding the very policies that can most effectively improve the situation The IPCC creates a perception that pollution can continue for decades to come. The IPCC does so by downplaying the size of the temperature rise and the threat of a huge rise within years. The IPCC promotes the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Most importantly, the IPCC has once more failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that can best improve the situation, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future.  The speed at which a huge temperature rise can unfold makes that many adaption efforts could be wasted or even counter-productive. A 2021 report by Neta Crawford estimates the budgetary costs and future obligations of the post-9/11 wars at about $8 trillion in 2021 dollars. Much of that money was spent on securing the supply and transport of fossil fuel. Governments spend $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm the environment, a study by Doug Koplow et al. finds. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8% of GDP and are expected to rise to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, a 2021 IMF report finds. Perverse subsidies are even higher when also including money that now goes into constructing transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, tunnels, bridges, railways, airports, etc. Redirecting such funding could enable more people to work and study from home with time to spare and gardens to grow their own food, instead of commuting by car over roads to offices, schools, etc.[ from earlier post ]Electric VTOL air taxis can replace a huge part of the traffic that now demands expensive infrastructure such as roads, railways including service stations, parking buildings and strips, bridges, tunnels, etc. Air taxis can facilitate a dramatic reduction in the need for traffic infrastructure, which also includes space now used for garages and parking. If much of this traffic instead takes place by air taxis, then urban design can have more space for outdoor dining, parks, markets, tree-lined footpaths, bike-tracks, etc.  Furthermore, drones could be used for transport and delivery of cargo, pharmaceuticals, etc. In many places, cities can become more compact and buildings can be put closer together, thus reducing overall cost and enabling people to reach destinations quicker, either by walking or cycling. Air taxis can bring people to many destinations fast, while people can also using online facilities to further reduce the need for transport and travel infrastructure. In other places, the space now used for roads and parking could instead be used to create urban forests, to extend gardens and to create community gardens and markets where people can get locally-produced vegan-organic food such as fruit and vegetables. Much additional infrastructure can also change, such as traffic lights and road signs, streetlights and the electricity grid. Supply of natural gas could be replaced by electric devices such as heat-pumps, induction-cookers and electric water-heaters. Organic waste can be pyrolysed with the resulting biochar added to the soil. For more on the Urban Heat Island effect, see: https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis/posts/419568755612304 For more on electric water heaters, see: https://www.facebook.com/groups/geoengineering/posts/4415470995176206 For more on biochar and pyrolysis, see: https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar Conclusion The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links • IPCC AR6 WGII - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii • Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html • Human Extinction by 2022? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html • NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ • Pre-industrial https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Extinction https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Aerosols https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html • Clouds feedback https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html • When Will We Die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Could Earth go the same way as Venus? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html • Accelerating Methane Rise https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-methane-rise.html • Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: The Role of Business Prepared - by Doug Koplow and Ronald Steenblik (2022)  https://www.earthtrack.net/sites/default/files/documents/EHS_Reform_Background_Report_fin.pdf • The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars - by Neta Crawford (2021)https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_U.S.%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Post-9%2011%20Wars_9.1.21.pdf • IMF - Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidieshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004 • Which policy can help EVs most? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/10/which-policy-can-help-evs-most.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: AR6, IPCC, Peter Carter, rise, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 4/8/22 11:41pm
by Andrew GliksonEnrico Fermi, Physicist, 1901-1953According to Fermi’s Paradox, the failure to date to achieve radio communication between Earth and extraterrestrial civilizations can be attributed to their inevitable short-term self-destruction, a consequence of uncontrolled dispersion of toxic substances, contamination of air, water and land, and construction of deadly weapons. On Earth this includes saturation of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases and production of nuclear weapons.  The most extensive mass extinction event in the history of Earth, represented by the Permian-Triassic boundary 251 million years-ago, involved warming, acidification and oxygen depletion of the oceans, with consequent emanations of toxic H₂S and CH₄, leading to a loss of some 57% of biological families, 83% of genera and 81% of marine species. If the history of the 21st century is ever written it would report that, while large parts of the planet were becoming uninhabitable, the extreme rate and scale of global warming and the migration of climate zones (~100 km per decade), the extent of polar ice melting, ocean warming and acidification, and methane release from permafrost, threatened to develop into one of the most extensive mass extinction events in the geological history of planet Earth.As concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases exceed 500 ppm CO₂-equivalents, consistent with global warming of more than >4°C (image above right), driving temperatures to well above 4°C (image below) and threatening to rise at a higher rate than those of the great mass extinctions. The accelerating destruction of the liveable Earth atmosphere and oceans (after Wil Steffen, 2012)Climate scientists have been either silenced or replaced by an army of economists and politicians mostly ignorant of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, but quantifying the cost-benefit economies of mitigation like corner shop grocers. James Hansen giving testimonybefore the U.S. Congress (1988)Proposed mitigation action were mostly focused on reduction of emissions, neglecting the amplifying feedbacks and tipping points projected by leading climate scientists such as James Hansen (image right). But climate change was not the only threat hanging over the head of humanity and nature. As nations kept proliferating atomic weapons, with time the probability of a nuclear war increased exponentially. At the root of the MAD (mutual assured destruction) policy, or omnicide, resides the deep tribalism and herd mentality of the species, hinging on race, religion, ideology, territorial claims and the concept of an “enemy” perpetrated by demagogues and warmongers, leading to an Orwellian 1984 world where “Oceania has always been at war with East-Asia”, as in the current “forever wars“. Prior to World War I two social forces collided, fascism and socialism. While the former has changed appearances, the latter weakened. At the core of superpower conflict between the Anglo-Saxon world and the Slavic or Chinese worlds are claims of moral superiority, but in reality naked grabs for power. At the centre of human conscience is its mythological nature, a mindset closely related to the mastery of fire where, for longer than one million years, Homo erectus, perched at campfire, watching the flickering flames, has grown its insights and imagination, developing a fear of death, dreaming of omniscience and omnipotence, aspiring for eternal life. As civilization developed in the Neolithic these sentiments drove humans to construct pyramids to enshrine immortality, undertake human sacrifice, to perpetrate death to appease the gods, expressed in modern times through world wars, as stated by Albert Einstein: “The splitting of the atom has changed everything bar man’s way of thinking and thus we drift into unparalleled catastrophes”. For an intelligent species to be able to explore the solar system planets but fail to protect its own home planet defies explanation. For a species to magnify its entropic effect on nature by orders of magnitude, developing cerebral powers which allow it to become the intelligent eyes through which the Universe explores itself, hints at yet unknown natural laws which underlie life, consciousness and complexity. We have entered the age of consequences, masked by the 24 hours news cycle that can only portray transient events but rarely exposes the Orwellian misconceptions which underlie the complicity of the powers-that-be. For, just as individuals can be plagued by insanity, so can groups of people, as in the Jonestown massacre, or in Nazi Germany, where a nation or a species slide blindly into mass suicide, creating systems that saturate the atmosphere with carbon gases and proliferate nuclear weapons in a terrestrial confirmation of Fermi’s Paradox. Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of New South Wales,Kensington NSW 2052 AustraliaBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, extinction, Fermi's Paradox, insanity, omnicide]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 4/6/22 12:13am
As above image shows, Antarctic sea ice extent was only 1.973 million km² on February 23, 2022, the lowest on record since satellite measurements began in 1979. Earlier, on February 20, 2022, Antarctic sea ice extent was only 1.983 million km². On February 20, 2008, it was 3.783 million km². That's a difference of 1.8 million km², or some 0.36% of the total surface of Earth (which is 510,072,000 km²). As illustrated by above image, adapted from IPCC AR5, incoming solar radiation at Top Of Atmosphere (TOA) is 340.4 W/m². This 340.4 W/m² is an average. The value varies depending on the seasons, i.e. the more the surface of Earth is facing the Sun, the higher this value will be (see image below, from the insolation page).                      The June Solstice in 2021 occurred on June 21, 2021.Another variable is how many clouds and aerosols are in the sky. Much of this radiation can be reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere and some of the radiation that reaches the surface can also be reflected. Yet, on a cloud-free day, where the sky is clear from aerosols, much of the incoming solar radiation will reach the surface. It further depends on the albedo of the surface, how much will in the end be absorbed or reflected at the surface. [ from the Albedo page ] Albedo refers to the reflectivity of the surface. Earth average albedo is 0.3 or 30%. The albedo of sea ice can be as high as 0.9 (i.e. 90% when covered with fresh snow). Currently, albedo of the sea ice is about 0.6 (the sea ice is partly covered with melt pools). Open water has an albedo of 0.06. So, disappearance of the sea ice makes an albedo difference of at least 0.5. So, when taking half of 340 W/m² and multiplying this by 0.36% (i.e. the part of Earth's surface), that gives a radiative forcing of 0.612 W/m². That would mean that some 0.612 W/m² that was previously reflected (Feb 20, 2008) is now instead absorbed by the ocean (on Feb 20, 2022). If Antarctic sea ice would disappear altogether, that would correspond to another loss of some 0.612 W/m², and together with the difference between 2008 and 2022, that would add up to a total radiative forcing of 1,224 W/m². That's almost half as much as all human-caused global warming in 2019. As the image below shows, radiative forcing was 2.72 W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750, according to IPCC AR6. If anyone can add to or improve the above calculation, please add a comment (see box below). The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links • NSIDC - Charctic interactive Sea Ice Graphhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Wikipedia - Earthhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth • IPCC - Figure 2.11 (AR5/WG1/Chapter 2) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/observations-atmosphere-and-surface/fig2-11_orig-pptx-2 • The global energy balance from a surface perspective - by Martin Wild et al. (2012) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8• NASA - Earth albedohttps://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html• Albedohttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Insolationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/insolation.html• IPCC AR6 WG1 SPMhttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, Antarctica, sea ice]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 4/5/22 11:43pm
In the video below, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres comments on the launch of the IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM Mitigation report. U.N. Secretary-General António GuterresThe report has severe shortcomings, including: The IPCC makes it look as if the temperature rise could be restricted to 1.5°C above pre-industrial and insists there was a carbon budget left, to be divided by using monetary analysis. This narrative results in a failure to highlight in the SPM some key drivers of change (such as heat pumps in buildings and air taxis in transport) and in inappropriately referring to such key drivers of change as 'options', while failing to mention the best policies to achieve the necessary changes, i.e. through local feebates.The image below, from the report's SPM, shows options by sector with the length of each bar indicating their potential for emissions reduction by 2030, while the color inside the bar gives a cost estimate. [ from IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM, click images to enlarge ]The above are not genuine options, as the dire situation leaves little choice and instead makes it imperative to act most urgently, comprehensively and effectively on climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement does instruct the IPCC to describe the best pathways to achieve this and the IPCC has until now refused to do so. As Arctic-news blog has pointed out for more than a decade, mitigation is most effectively achieved by offering people a range of options, preferably through local feebates, which will also make such policies more popular, as a 2019 analysis (above) concludes.[ from earlier post ]Options are more appropriately included in feebates, as they can offer a range of options, with the more polluting options attracting fees and with the revenues used to fund rebates on the cleaner options. An example of a wider set of local feebates is depicted in the above analysis of EV policy, which could include not only fees on fuel and fuel-powered vehicles, but also on facilities that sell or process fuel, vehicle registration, parking, toll roads, etc.It's important to act comprehensively, along several lines of action, e.g. to redesign cities and plan for air taxis. Given the urgency to act, such lines of action are all best implemented as soon as possible, yet at the same time many lines of action are best kept separate, as illustrated by the above image. The image on the right illustrates the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 171 over a few years, vs the IPCC's use of a GWP of 28 over 100 years.  Fees on sales of livestock products can raise revenue for pyrolysis of biowaste, with the resulting biochar added to the soil.  That would also support the transition toward a vegan-organic diet more strongly, in line with the conclusion of an earlier IPCC report that a vegan diet ranks highest regarding mitigation (image right, from an earlier post). The Climate Plan prefers local feebates. Where necessary, fees can be set high enough to effectively ban specific alternatives. [ Image from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets ]Furthermore, instead of using money, local councils could add extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using all the revenues for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises.That way, biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built.The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.Links• Secretary-General Warns of Climate Emergency, Calling Intergovernmental Panel’s Report ‘a File of Shame’, While Saying Leaders ‘Are Lying’, Fuelling Flameshttps://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sgsm21228.doc.htm• Mitigation of Climate Change Report 2022: "Litany of broken climate promises" - UN Chiefhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8rlLaT8v4Q• IPCC Climate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change - Summary for Policymakers https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf• IPCC special report Climate Change and Landhttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl• IPCC Report Climate Change and Landhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/ipcc-report-climate-change-and-land.html• Confirm Methane's Importancehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: air taxis, biochar, feebates, GWP, heat pumps, IPCC, livestock, mitigation, vegan]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/23/22 7:33pm
Carbon dioxideCarbon dioxide (CO₂) was 421.59 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 14, 2022, a level unprecedented in millions of years. Carbon dioxide levels typically reach their annual maximum in May, so even higher levels can be expected over the next few months.Carbon dioxide levels are even higher at high latitudes north. The image below shows that carbon dioxide levels are approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska. MethaneNOAA's monthly global mean reading for October 2021 for methane (CH₄) is 1907.2 parts per billion (ppb), which is 17.1 ppb higher than the reading for October 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.74 ppb for 2020 was the highest on record at the time and the increase for 2021 looks to be even higher.[ from earlier post ]Keep in mind that NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes. Furthermore, keep in mind that the above 1907.2 ppb reading is for October 2021; it now is February 2022.  The image below shows that recent methane levels are approaching 1940 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Similarly as carbon dioxide, methane levels are even higher at high latitudes north. Furthermore, the rise is accelerating strongly. At Barrow, Alaska, recent methane levels are approaching 2040 ppb.  Nitrous oxideThe image below shows the annual increase in globally-averaged nitrous oxide (N₂O). The top part of the combination image below shows IPCC scenarios for nitrous oxide, as discussed in an earlier post, with the bottom part showing recent NOAA observations (through to October 2022). Clouds feedbackAs discussed in an earlier post, just two greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, could abruptly cause the joint CO₂e to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point, triggering a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback. Again, that could be the result of the climate forcing just of carbon dioxide and methane, without even adding further forcing such as by nitrous oxide. Meanwhile, as discussed, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, and a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth.ConclusionThe situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.Links• NOAA - Mauna Loa, Hawaii https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts • NOAA - Barrow, Alaska https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts • Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continuehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html• NOAA - Nitrous oxide trendshttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_n2o• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface monthly mean nitrous oxide data https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/n2o/n2o_mm_gl.txt• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html• Accelerating Methane Risehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-methane-rise.html• Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continuehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html• When Will We Die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, rise]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/23/22 6:50pm
by Andrew GliksonAs terrestrial adversaries keep pushing the Earth and its inhabitants to within seconds of a nuclear catastrophe, looming through heat waves, extreme fires and flood events is the huge calamity of irreversible global warming.[ from earlier post ]Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached levels well above 420 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 13 and 14, 2022, as illustrated by the image, from an earlier post. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ and other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) rising from 280 ppm CO₂e in 1700 to 504 ppm CO₂e in 2021. This figure of 504 ppm CO₂e could be much higher when applying a short horizon to calculate methane's Global Warming Potential. CO₂ levels have been rising from ~315 ppm in 1950 to ~419 ppm in 2022, at an average growth rate of some 1.44 ppm/year accelerating to about 2.5 ppm/year recently. The rate of this CO₂ rise is unprecedented in the Cenozoic (since 65 Ma) record, with perhaps the closest parallel being the aftermath of the K-T dinosaur mass extinction event, when the temperature rose by as much as ~7.5°C. According to Beerling et al. (2002) CO₂ level rose from 350–500 ppm to at least 2,300 ppm within 10,000 years following the K-T impact, at an average rate of ~0.2 ppm/year, significantly less than today's rate. Above image shows CO₂ on track to reach 575 ppm by 2061, a level commensurate with atmospheric conditions during parts of the Miocene, when the temperatures in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as also illustrated by the image below, adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al. The image below further illustrates that to find CO₂ levels as high as 575 ppm, we have to go back in time millions of year, into the Miocene.  What makes current conditions even more dire is that it's not just carbon dioxide that is rising at a speed unprecedented in history, methane is rising at an even faster pace, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.  Can the current climate trend be arrested, or even reversed? The current global greenhouse gas trend is leading to one of the largest mass extinctions of species in the geological record, one of the victims being human civilization. The current focus on emission reduction overlooks a major factor, namely the amplifying feedbacks from land and oceans (Steffen et al., 2018). There is a desperate need, in addition to emission reduction, for urgent large-scale sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and for further action to combat the temperature rise.The role of amplifying GHG feedbacks from land and oceans, leading to enhanced heating, appears to be neglected in climate negotiations. Amplifying feedbacks include: an increase in evaporation, raising atmospheric water vapor levels, which enhances the greenhouse gas effect; a decline in the polar albedo (reflection) due to large-scale lateral and vertical melting of ice; release of methane from degrading permafrost and from polar sediments; reduced CO₂ intake by warming oceans. Currently the oceans absorb between 35-42% of all CO₂ and around 90% of the excess heat; warming, desiccation, deforestation and fires over land areas. Numerous species have been unable to survive the accelerated global heating following the K-T impact event, nor are many species likely to survive the even higher rate of the of the Anthropocene catastrophe. A connection between climate change and human wars is evident from the accelerated global warming in the wake of the industrial-scale world wars I and II and subsequent industrial developments. It is possible that climate change could have been arrested in the 1960s had global efforts been directed at the time for abrupt cuts in emissions, transformation of agricultural and land clearing practices, and effort at CO₂ drawdown/sequestration. By the onset of the 21st century however, such efforts have hardly been undertaken and could yet turn out to be too late. The repetitions of humanity’s old warlike habits, investing resources in industries of death, genocidal wars associated with intensive carbon emissions, forecasted in “The Fate of the Earth”, yield little promise for a change of direction.Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of New South Wales,Kensington NSW 2052 AustraliaBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, carbon dioxide, methane, Miocene, rise, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/18/22 7:33am
Ocean heat is at record levels. As a result, global sea ice extent was only 16.23 million km² on February 9, 2022, the third lowest extent on record. What makes this even more worrying is that we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña.Antarctic sea ice at lowest extent on record since start satellite measurementsOcean heat is a huge threat for Antarctica at the moment. The image below shows that Antarctic sea ice extent was only 2.091 million km² on February 16, 2022, the lowest on record since the start of satellite measurements.Ocean heat is reducing the sea ice around Antarctica and is getting underneath floating sea ice. The Thwaites Glacier, which is on a retrograde slope, is especially vulnerable to collapse.  The Thwaites Glacier contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 65 cm (25.59 inches) if it were to completely collapse. The animation on the right, created with images from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the retreat of the Antarctic snow and ice cover from January 5 to February 18, 2021. The animation underneath, by navy.mil, shows sea ice thickness over 30 days up to February 17, 2022 (with 8 days of forecasts added).Another danger of a rapid loss of the snow and ice cover on Antarctica is release of methane. Jemma Wadham warned about this in a 2012 study, as discussed at the post methane hydrates. More recently, Jemma Wadham said: “We are sleepwalking into a catastrophe for humanity.”The Thwaites Glacier is often called the Doomsday Glacier because if it collapses it would lead to vast sea level rise, and scientists believe it is likely to fail within a few years, says Cliff Seruntine (the Naturalist) in the video below.  A recent study concludes that mountain glaciers may hold less ice than previously thought. Their disappearance means less water for drinking and agriculture, and faster temperature rises due to albedo loss. While the study found that the Himalayas contain more water than thought, another recent study, Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss, describes how human-induced climate change has a huge impact on the highest reaches of the planet.The outlook for the Arctic is most threatening, as the post methane hydrates also concluded back in 2013, as described in numerous post here at Arctic-news and as discussed in the video below by Jim Massa. A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soonAbove image indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.As said, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses temperatures. As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as discussed in an earlier post. A 2019 study analyzes how tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems.Currently, the temperature rise is additionally suppressed by low sunspots. Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle and observed sunspots are looking stronger than predicted. In the image below on the right, adapted from NOAA, the solar cycle is represented as the number of sunspots (top) and F10.7cm radio flux (bottom). In a recent communication, James Hansen repeats that, as reductions take place in the sulfate aerosols that are currently co-emitted by traffic, transport and industry, this is causing the current temperature rise to accelerate and could cause further rapid global warming, referred to in a 2021 presentation as a termination shock.Furthermore, in addition to a huge temperature rise resulting from sulfate aerosols falling away, there could be a further rise in temperature as a result of releases of other aerosols with a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.In summary, while the temperatures are accelerating, we'll soon be moving into the next El Niño, with sunspots moving toward a peak, with sulfate aerosols causing a termination shock and with other aerosols further driving up the temperature rise. Stop the deception!In a giant scheme of deception, the temperature rise is all too often presented with images of people playing on the beach on a 'warm' day, as if 'global warming' was making life more 'comfortable'. Forest fires are called 'wildfires', biomass burning and associated deforestation is referred to as 'renewable biofuel', fracking-induced earthquakes are called 'natural' disasters and methane eruptions are called seeps and bubbles of 'natural' gas from 'natural' sources such as wetlands. This gives the false impression that this was somehow 'natural' as if human activities had nothing to do with it, and as if owning beach-front property was becoming ever more attractive.Let's stop this deception! In reality, human-caused emissions have a huge short-term impact on temperature and their combination with genuinely natural variability such as El Niño and sunspots can act as a catalyst, causing numerous feedbacks to kick in with ever greater ferocity. This can result in collapse of global sea ice and permafrost, resulting in albedo loss and eruption of huge quantities of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, further driving up the temperature rise abruptly, as described at the extinction page. Further feedbacks are also described at the feedbacks page. ConclusionThe situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links• Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions - by Lijing Cheng et al.  https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-022-1461-3 • Ocean heat is at record levels, with major consequences - by Kevin Trenberth https://theconversation.com/ocean-heat-is-at-record-levels-with-major-consequences-174760 • Arctic Data archive System - Vishop extenthttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent • NSIDC: Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graphhttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph • IPCC: Marine Ice Sheet Instabilityhttps://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/3-1-introduction-polar-regions-people-and-the-planet/ipcc-srocc-cb_8_1• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo• Antarctica CICE ice thicknesshttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/antarc.html• Antarctica’s ‘doomsday’ glacier: how its collapse could trigger global floods and swallow islands  https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-how-its-collapse-could-trigger-global-floods-and-swallow-islands-173940 • Methane hydrates (2013) https://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html • Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica - by Jemma Wadham et al. (2012) https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11374 • A new frontier in climate change science: connections between ice sheets, carbon and food webs (2021)  https://cage.uit.no/2021/05/19/a-new-frontier-for-climate-science-the-evidence-for-glaciers-as-methane-producers-has-exploded-in-recent-years • Ice velocity and thickness of the world’s glaciers - by Romain Millan et al.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00885-z • Mountain glaciers may hold less ice than previously thought – here’s what that means for 2 billion downstream water users and sea level rise  https://theconversation.com/mountain-glaciers-may-hold-less-ice-than-previously-thought-heres-what-that-means-for-2-billion-downstream-water-users-and-sea-level-rise-176514 • Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss - by Mariusz Potocki et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00230-0 • Human-induced climate change impacts the highest reaches of the planet — Mount Everesthttps://umaine.edu/news/blog/2022/02/03/human-induced-climate-change-impacts-the-highest-reaches-of-the-planet-mount-everest • Ocean Heat Content Update 1 - 2022 - Science Talk with Jim Massa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pctkg_LDqcU• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202201/supplemental/page-4• Human Extinction by 2022? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html• Tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems - by Mateo Duque-Villegas et al. (2019) https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/631/2019• James Hansen - The New Horse Racehttps://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2022/JanuaryTempUpdate.14February2022.pdf• Climate Impact of Decreasing Atmospheric Sulphate Aerosols and the Risk of a Termination Shock - by Leon Simons, James Hansen and Yann duFournet (2021) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356378673_Climate_Impact_of_Decreasing_Atmospheric_Sulphate_Aerosols_and_the_Risk_of_a_Termination_Shock • NOAA - Solar Cycle Progressionhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Antarctica, Cliff Seruntine, cover, heat, ice, James Hansen, Jemma Wadham, Jim Massa, loss, methane, ocean, rise, snow, temperature, the Naturalist, Thwaites]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/18/22 7:01am
NOAA's October 2021 global mean methane reading is 1907.2 parts per billion (ppb), which is 17.1 ppb higher than the reading for October 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.74 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record. Keep in mind that this 1907.2 ppb reading is for October 2021; it now is February 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes. The  image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2904 ppb at 469 mb on February 4, 2022 am. Methane levels are very high over the Arctic. The image below shows high recent monthly average methane levels at Barrow, Alaska. Carbon dioxide levels over the Arctic are also very high. The image below shows high recent daily average carbon dioxide levels at Barrow, Alaska. The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt• NOAA - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Sounding Products (MetOp) https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases, Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa, Hawaii https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html• Human Extinction by 2022? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html • Terrifying Arctic methane levelshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html • Terrifying Arctic methane levels continue https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, methane, rise]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/18/22 6:15am
Following the record low Antarctic sea ice extent reached last month, Arctic sea ice extent now looks to be beyond its maximum for the year and looks set to keep falling rapidly over the next few months. Ocean heat is at record levels, as illustrated by the image below and as discussed in an earlier post. The image below shows the temperature at the North Pole reaching 0.7°C or 33.3°F (at 1000 hPa, at the green circle) on March 16, 2022, with ocean currents depicted at the background.How could the temperature at the North Pole get this high, in March? As said, ocean heat is at record levels. This is heating up the air over the Atlantic Ocean. At times, huge amounts of heat are getting pushed into the Arctic due to a distorted Jet Stream. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream on the Northern Hemisphere on March 16, 2022, with strong winds at 250 hPa pushing heat from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic. Furthermore, the Gulf Stream is pushing huge amounts of ocean heat toward the Arctic. The image below shows that sea surface temperatures were as much as 14.1°C or 25.3°F higher than 1981-2011 off the North American coast (green circle) on March 5, 2022. The image below shows that, on March 16, 2022, the temperature in the Arctic was 3.5°C higher than 1979-2000. The above events could be seen as signs of the strength and the speed of the rise to come.  The rise to comeThe image below indicates that the global temperature difference between the top of an El Niño and the bottom of a La Niña period could be more than half a degree Celsius. Temperature anomalies of up to 4.1°C (versus 1951-1980) show up over the years at the highest latitudes north, as illustrated by the image on the right, created with a NASA image. These high anomalies show up in particular during El Niño periods.  We're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as the next image on the right shows. This will keep suppressing the temperature, until the start of the next El Niño.  The next El Niño could push temperatures up even more strongly than the average El Niño, for a number of reasons. As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as discussed in an earlier post. A 2019 study analyzes how tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems.Currently, the temperature rise is additionally suppressed by low sunspots. Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle and observed sunspots are looking stronger than predicted, as described at the sunspots page. Furthermore, temperatures look set to rise as sulfate aerosols are falling away, while there could be a further rise in temperature as a result of releases of other aerosols with a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place. As the temperature of the atmosphere rises, this could increase water vapor while reducing lower clouds decks and further increase the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page. What could further push up temperatures a lot over the next few years is the compound impact of feedbacks in the Arctic, including decline of the snow and ice cover, releases of greenhouse gases from degrading subsea and terrestrial permafrost, and further distortion of the Jet Stream causing more extreme weather events. ConclusionThe situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.Links• Albedo loss in Antarctica https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/albedo-loss-in-antarctica.html• NSIDC - Charctic interactive Sea Ice Graph https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Accelerating loss of global snow and ice coverhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-loss-of-global-snow-and-ice-cover.html • NASA Temperature Analysishttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp • NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf • Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Aerosolshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html• Clouds feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Niño, Gulf Stream, jet stream, ocean heat]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/12/22 3:40am
NOAA's globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane reading for November 2021 of 1909.3 parts per billion (ppb) is 17.6 ppb higher than the reading for November 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.57 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record. Keep in mind that this 1909.3 ppb reading is for November 2021; it now is March 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.The image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1936 ppb at 321 mb on March 7, 2022 pm. Carbon dioxide levels are currently very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below that shows carbon dioxide levels approaching 430 parts per million (ppm) recently at Barrow, Alaska. The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) level over the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point in one spot, causing low-altitude clouds in various neighboring areas to break up, propagating break-up of clouds in further areas, as discussed at the clouds feedback page.The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1958 ppb on October 25, 2021 am at 295 mb. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 391.6 ppm CO₂e. Together with a global mean CO₂ level of 420 ppm, that's 811.6 ppm CO₂e, i.e. only 388.4 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point. An additional 5 Gt of methane from an abrupt eruption of the seafloor could raise the global mean methane concentration by almost 2000 ppb which, at a 1-year GWP of 200, would translate into an extra 400 ppm CO₂e, thus pushing the joint impact of just two greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) above the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point. The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. Links• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt• NOAA - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Sounding Products (MetOp-B) https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxidehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases, Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa, Hawaii https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html• Clouds feedback pagehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Human Extinction by 2022? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html• Terrifying Arctic methane levelshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html• Terrifying Arctic methane levels continuehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html• Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, carbon dioxide, clouds, CO2-e, methane, tipping point]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/1/22 10:28am
by Malcolm Light~ Wake represents the last chance for humanity to “Wake Up” to the extreme global extinction nightmare facing us; a Wake is also a Celtic “Death Watch” on our Planet Earth’s near term demise. ~Above image shows the exponential increase of the Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly in Degrees Celsius (Light 2021, Carana 2022, 2021; Carter, 2022) and the relative increase in Volume of Heat Transport and Temperature of the Gulf Stream–Svalbard Current into the Arctic Ocean (Smedsrud et al., 2021; Carter 2022). [ from earlier post ]The Volume of Gulf Stream Heat Transport has increased by 30% in the last 100 years (Smedsrud et al., 2021) and is estimated to be some 33.6% larger by 2030. The Gulf Stream Temperature–Heat Transport Volume Trend intersects the Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly Trend at 2030 with an equal and combined Arctic Atmospheric and Ocean Temperature of 11.7°C. By this time the sub-sea Arctic shelf edge methane hydrates will be exponentially destabilizing, releasing vast volumes of methane gas into the Arctic Ocean, and this will convert the sea into a ‘Methane Bubble Foam’, vastly increasing the rate of evaporation of Arctic Ocean water. By the Northern Summer of 2035, the Arctic Ocean and Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly will together have reached 107.5°C and will pass 117.4°C by the Northern Summer of 2036. After 2035, the loss of the Planet's ocean water will occur at an exponential rate, as the Ocean and Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomalies rise in unison and convert Earth into a high temperature, uninhabitable planet like Venus. [ from earlier post ] It is completely self-evident that if the Gulf Stream heat transport to the Arctic Ocean is not immediately stopped, it will cause a Catastrophic Arctic Atmospheric Global Extinction event starting in 2 to 5 years culminating around 2030 (8 Years hence) (Light 2021; Carana 2022, 2021; Carter 2022). [ Created by Sam Carana with nullschool.net ]Because of the very short time now left to the start of the Catastrophic Global Extinction Event, the Gulf Stream heat transport to the Arctic Ocean must be stopped. The animation on the right shows that, on February 2, 2022, sea surface temperatures off the coast of North America were as much as 11.2°C higher than 1981-2011 (at green circle). Present data indicates that the Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly will have reached 5°C in the Summer of 2024 when massive Global extinction will begin in earnest. Therefore the latest date for effective action is the summer of 2023. References • Terrifying Arctic Methane Levels - by Sam Carana (2022)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html • Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continue - by Sam Carana (2022)https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html • Will COP26 in Glasgow deliver? - by Sam Carana (2021) https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/will-cop26-in-glasgow-deliver.html • Climate change: Satellites map huge methane plumes from oil and gas (BBC, 2022)https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60203683 • Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters - by Thomas Lauvaux et al. (2022) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj4351 • Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice Cover Over the Last Century - by Lars Smedsrud et al. (2021) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000725• The Gulf Stream has increased steadily over the last century - by University of Bergen (News Release associated with above study, 2022) https://www.uib.no/en/climateenergy/150992/gulf-stream-has-increased-steadily-over-last-century • Carter, Peter; 2022. The 2021 Temperature Increase (1.1°C to 1.2°C) makes the Past Seven Years the Warmest on Record. Note Rapid Surface Heating of North America from Copernicus. https://www.facebook.com/peter.carter.961/posts/10219962813689792 • Carter, Peter; 11 January 2022. Arctic Sea Surface Temperature is Increasing at a Rate Far Above the Very Worst Case.  https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10219962747168129&set=3608730145997 • Carter, Peter; 5 January 2022.  Through 2021 Global Warming Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases have the Planet Headed to Catastrophic Heating.  https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10220027727632600&set=a.3608730145997 • Hampton, Steve 2021.  Modern climate change is 10x faster than historic global warming mass extinction events https://thecottonwoodpost.net/2019/12/10/modern-climate-change-is-10x-faster-than-historic-global-warming-mass-extinction-events • Light M.P.R., 2021.  Planetary Extinction due to Arctic Atmospheric Methane Veilhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetary-extinction-due-to-arctic-atmospheric-methane-veil.html • Light M.P.R., 2015. Planetary Genocide - Ecocide between 2023 and 2031 https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/01/planetary-genocide-ecocide-between-2023-and-2031.html • Light M.P.R., Hensel H. and Carana S., 2014. Arctic Atmospheric Methane Global Warming Veilhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/06/arctic-atmospheric-methane-global-warming-veil.html • Light M.P.R., 2013. Act now on methane (extract) https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/act-now-on-methane.html Act now on methane (full version)https://sites.google.com/site/runawayglobalwarming/the-non-disclosed-extreme-arctic-methane-threat • Light M.P.R., 2012. Global extinction within one human lifetime as a result of a spreading atmospheric methane heatwave and surface firestorm https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html • Light M.P.R., 2012. Edited by Sam Carana. How much time is there left to act, before methane hydrate releases will lead to human extinction? https://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2012/02/how-much-time-is-there-left-to-act.html • Light M.P.R., 2011. Edited by Sam Carana.  Use of beamed interfering radio frequency transmissions to decompose Arctic atmospheric methane clouds. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/decomposing-atmospheric-methane.html • Light M.P.R., 2011. Stratospheric methane global warming veil https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/stratospheric-methane-global-warming.html • Light M.P.R. and Solana C., 2002. Arctic Methane Hydrates: A Potential Greenhouse Gas Hazard https://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.4077L • Light M.P.R. and Solana C., 2002. Arctic methane hydrates - Mapping a potential greenhouse gas hazard. Abstract and Poster, EGS, Nice. In: Light, M.P.R. and Carana, S., 2011. Methane linked to Seismic Activity in the Arctic https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html • Light M.P.R. and Posey, H.H., 1992. Chapter 10 Diagenesis and its Relation to Mineralization and Hydrocarbon Reservoir Development: Gulf Coast and North sea Basins https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0070457108705727 • Light M.P.R., Posey, H.H., Kyle, J.R., and Price P.E., 1987. Integrated hydrothermal model for the Texas Gulf Coast Basin; origins of geopressured brines and lead-zinc, uranium, hydrocarbon, and cap rock depositshttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/284819891_Integrated_hydrothermal_model_for_the_Texas_Gulf_Coast_Basin_origins_of_geopressured_brines_and_lead-zinc_uranium_hydrocarbon_and_cap_rock_deposits • Light M.P.R., Posey, H.H., Kyle, J.R., and Price P.E., 1987. Model for the origins of geopressured brines, hydrocarbons, cap rocks and metallic mineral deposits: Gulf Coast, U.S.A.. In: Lerch, Ian, and O'Brien, J.J., Dynamical geology of salt and related structures: Orlando, Florida, Academic Press, pp. 787-830https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780124441705500257 • Light M.P.R., 1985.  Structure, facies, continuity and internal properties of the Frio "A" sandstone, N.E. Hitchcock Field, Galveston County, Texas. In: Dorfman, M.H. and Morton, R.A. eds., Geopressured-Geothermal Energy, Proceedings of the Sixth U.S. Gulf Coast Geopressured-Geothermal Energy Conference: Pergamon, p. 229 - 238.https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/1630274

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Gulf Stream, Malcolm Light, methane, Peter Carter, rise, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/1/22 9:52am
In a recent paper, Guy McPherson, Beril Sirmacek and Ricardo Vinuesa discuss Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events. Authors point at an image by Song et al. (2021) that shows how major mass extinctions over the past 541 million years (the Phanerozoic) are linked to temperature rises higher than 5.2°C and rates of change higher than 10°C/Myr. Earlier, a 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw found that at 5°C rise, most life on Earth will be extinct (see box below on the right, from an earlier post).  In the video below, authors Guy McPherson, Beril Sirmacek and Ricardo Vinuesa discuss their analysis 'Environmental thresholds for mass extinction events'. Authors point out that, next to temperature rise and rates of change, there are further variables such as rates of deforestation, ocean acidification and spreading of toxic substances that can additionally contribute to cause species to disappear. Accordingly,  many species are likely to go extinct at rises much lower than 5°C. Humans - who depend on many species - could go extinct with a 3°C rise, as the above-mentioned earlier post concluded. This makes it even more critical to assess how much the temperature has already risen from pre-industrial. As illustrated by the image below, we may already be more than 2°C above pre-industrial and face a potentially huge temperature rise over the next few years. Below, the video associated with the analysis Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events. The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan. Links• Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events - by Guy McPherson, Beril Sirmacek and Ricardo Vinuesa (2022) https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.08933 • Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions - by Haijun Song et al. (2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25019-2 • Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change - by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6233172 • When Will We Die? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html • Pre-industrial https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Climate Plan https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Beril Sirmacek, change, climate, Guy McPherson, rate, Ricardo Vinuesa, rise, temperature]

[*] [+] [-] [x] [A+] [a-]  
[l] at 3/1/22 9:02am
 by Andrew GliksonFigure 1. “The Nuclear Winter” by Carl SaganThe Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary (~66 million years-ago) asteroid impact, described in 1980 by Alvarez et al., caused enough dust and debris to cloud large parts of planet and result in the mass extinction of some 80% of all species of animals.When Turco et al. (1983) and Carl Sagan (1983) warned the world about the climatic effects of a nuclear war, they pointed out that the amount of carbon stored in a large city was sufficient to release enough aerosols (smoke, soot and dust) to block sunlight over large regions, leading to a widespread failure of crops and thereby extensive starvation. Current nuclear arsenals by the United States and Russia could inject 150 Teragram (Tg) (10⁹ kilogram) of soot from fires ignited by nuclear explosions into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (Coupe et al., 2019), lasting for a period of 10 years or longer, followed by a period of intense radioactive radiation over large areas. Even a “limited” nuclear war, such as between India and Pakistan, would release enough aerosols to affect large regions, killing millions or billions through starvation. As stated by Robock et al., 2007): “The casualties from the direct effects of blast, radioactivity, and fires resulting from the massive use of nuclear weapons by the superpowers would be so catastrophic … the ensuing nuclear winter would produce famine for billions of people far from the target zones”.By 2021, with a global arsenal of ~13.000 nuclear warheads, 90 percent of which held by Russia and the US, regional conflicts such as in the Ukraine and Taiwan threaten to spill world-wide. As the clock of the atomic scientists is set at 100 seconds to doomsday, the rising probability of an intended or inadvertent nuclear war, in the background of rising global warming, indicate an hour of truth for the species―a choice between the defence of life on Earth and global suicide. While the inhabitants of the planet are preoccupied with the 24 hours news cycle, media hype, superlatives, a deadly Virus, economic issues and sport games, the hair-trigger nuclear gun loaded by the powers to be, east and west, are threatening all life on Earth. Figure 2. Robock et al. (2007): Global average surface air temperature change from the 5 Tg standard case (red) in the context of climate change over 125 years climate change (125 years NASA data). From Robock et al. (2007). A release of 5Tg (Tera-gram) of black carbon is modelled to lower the average global temperature by about 1.5°C (Robock et al. 2007), although over the continents cooling is likely to be more abrupt.  Figure 3. Robock et al. (2007): Time variation of global average net surface shortwave radiation, surface air temperature, and precipitation changes for the 5 Tg standard case. The global average precipitation in the control case is 3.0 mm/day, so the changes in years 2-4 represent a 9% global average reduction in precipitation. The precipitation recovers faster than the temperature, but both lag the forcing. For comparison the global average net surface shortwave forcing from a model simulation of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption (Oman et al., 2005) is shown. Inherent in nuclear war strategy is a “use them or lose them” approach, namely hitting the enemy’s air and missile launch pads before missiles can be launched, which amounts to a virtual guarantee many or most nuclear war heads are potentially used. With the estimated size of the global nuclear warheads inventory of many tens of thousands warheads (Figure 4) this guarantees a global catastrophe. Figure 4. 2021 Estimated global nuclear warhead inventories Such an extreme event would arrest global warming for a period of about 10 years or longer (Figures 2 and 3), possibly in part analogous to the consequences of a less abrupt flow of polar ice melt into the oceans, as modelled by Bronselaer et al. (2018) (Figure 5).Figure 5. Model 2080–2100 meltwater-induced sea-air temperature anomalies relative to the standard RCP8.5 ensemble (Bronselaer et al., 2018), indicating marked cooling of parts of the southern oceans. Hatching indicates where the anomalies are not significant at the 95% level.When Sagan and colleagues published their observations of a nuclear winter scenario as a warning to humanity, Sagan was painted as an “alarmist” by many, facing extensive criticism not just from pro-nuclear conservatives but also from scientists who resented him for leveraging his personal fame for advocating what some regarded as political views. A similar situation occurs nowadays with regard to the accelerating global warming and the nuclear threat, as confirmed by the warning by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.From the January 20, 2022 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists news release:While the past year offered glimmers of hope that humankind might reverse its march toward global catastrophe, the Doomsday Clock was set at just 100 seconds to midnight. The time is based on continuing and dangerous threats posed by nuclear weapons, climate change, disruptive technologies, and COVID-19. All of these factors were exacerbated by “a corrupted information ecosphere that undermines rational decision making.” The Doomsday Clock statement explains that the “decision does not, by any means, suggest that the international security situation has stabilized. On the contrary, the Clock remains the closest it has ever been to civilization-ending apocalypse because the world remains stuck in an extremely dangerous moment.” Time is running out. Andrew GliksonA/Prof. Andrew GliksonEarth and Paleo-climate scientistSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of New South Wales,Kensington NSW 2052 AustraliaBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: aerosols, Andrew Glikson, Nuclear Winter, warheads]

As of 8/19/22 1:37pm. Last new 8/10/22 7:20am.

Next feed in category: Nature