Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children's Mental Health Fund

 

at 8/7/26 8:40am

Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children's Mental Health Fund A New Mexico state judge on Aug. 6 ordered Meta to pay $567 million into a fund dedicated to remedying the harm caused to children’s mental health by the company’s social media platforms. Meta is the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. State judge Bryan Biedscheid said in a 68-page order that most of the total youth mental health fund, or $420 million, would go toward treatment services for children harmed by social media. The remainder of the fund would be directed toward awareness and prevention, screening and assessment, referrals and coordination, and implementation, according to the order. “The Court finds that the weight of the evidence presented demonstrates that Meta’s platforms are a cause of and substantial contributing factor to the youth mental health crisis in New Mexico,” the judge wrote. Furthermore, as Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, in his ruling, Biedscheid ordered the company to delete the accounts of users under 13, along with all personal information collected from those accounts, and simplify the steps for reporting underage users. Meta was also ordered to disable push notifications on its platforms for users under 18 between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. on all days, and from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on school days during the academic year. The company is also required to implement mandatory usage time limits for those accounts and hide, by default, all like counts on their content unless a parent or guardian authorizes a change to the default setting. New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez hailed the ruling as a victory for parents and children, saying that youngsters deserve to have a safer environment online. “This case has always been about protecting children, standing up for families, and making sure that one of the world’s largest technology companies cannot profit from practices that endanger young people without consequence,” Torrez said in a statement. Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in a post on X that the company disagreed with the ruling and planned to appeal, noting that Meta had been working to remove bad actors and harmful content from its platforms. “We remain confident in our record of protecting teens online and will continue to defend ourselves against claims that misrepresent the facts,” Stone said. The latest penalty comes on top of the $375 million fines that a New Mexico jury imposed on Meta in March for violating the state’s Unfair Practices Act by failing to disclose the potential risks of its social media platforms to children. New Mexico sued Meta in December 2023, alleging that the company’s social media platforms served as a “breeding ground” for predators targeting children for human trafficking, sexual image distribution, grooming, and solicitation. Meta denied the allegations, saying at the time that it uses advanced technology to root out bad actors and employs child safety experts. The company also said that it shares information and tools with other companies and law enforcement, including state attorneys general, to help identify predators. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:40

— Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump's Polysilicon Tariffs Create "Structural Floor" For Industry

 

at 8/7/26 8:10am

Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump's Polysilicon Tariffs Create "Structural Floor" For Industry Solar stocks are shining in premarket trading in New York after the Trump administration announced a new 15% tariff and a price floor on imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, and solar modules. The move is intended to secure the domestic solar supply chain after years of cheap Chinese panels flooding the country, making it uneconomical for domestic manufacturers to compete. "Polysilicon is the base material underpinning the security of America's semiconductor and solar-power supply chains. Yet for decades, America has allowed foreign countries to weaken United States producers in the polysilicon sector ‑- eroding our economic and national security. Today, I am taking action to put a stop to these practices and revitalize the United States polysilicon sector," President Trump wrote in an overnight executive order. The Trump administration's order is less a conventional tariff increase and more of a reset of the US solar-module pricing regime. The new framework, combining a 15% tariff with minimum import prices, could lift utility-scale module prices into the low-to-mid 40-cent-per-watt range from roughly 30 cents. Analysts from several desks, including BMO Capital Markets, Truist Securities, Citi, and others, point to First Solar as the clear winner. "We expect the immediate market reaction to favor FSLR given enhanced long-term pricing power and terminal value implications, while utility solar-exposed names including NXT, ARRY, SHLS and FLNC could face near-term pressure as investors reassess project economics and deployment costs," BMO analyst Ameet Thakkar wrote. Thakkar noted, "In this report we analyze the structure and implementation of the new tariff framework, the implications for module pricing and domestic manufacturing economics, potential upside to FSLR valuation and ASPs, the 120-day implementation window, and our continued constructive view on NXT despite likely near-term volatility." Moses Sutton at BNP Paribas outlined FSLR as the "biggest, long-awaited winner" and highlighted how a new "structural 'floor' for industry" is being created. What other desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg): Citi Analyst Vikram Bagri notes that the polysilicon tariffs are largely in line with expectations and sees upside for First Solar "For FSLR, the benefits are a minimum import price for poly/cells/ingots/wafers/modules, which may be adjusted at Commerce's discretion to reflect market conditions, a 15% ad valorem on downstream poly derivatives, application to warehoused inventory plus anti-stockpiling provisions" Notes that countries that adopt their own minimum import price may be able to claim favorable treatment for their exports to the US, which would be negative for US firms Truist Securities Analyst Christopher Souther sees First Solar as the biggest beneficiary of the tariffs and notes that the company's module price is below the minimum import price "In our view, this further reinforces First Solar's competitive moat, as the company already benefits from a US-based manufacturing footprint, Section 45X tax credits, and existing trade protections" Notes that the exemption paths for US module manufacturers may reduce the benefit for First Solar in out years Barclays Analyst Christine Cho sees the polysilicon tariffs raising the cost of imported modules to around $0.44 per watt "The Section 232 outcome is more positive for FSLR than we and the Street were expecting and would seem to support ASPs to move somewhere in the low to mid $0.40/w range" In premarket trading, FSLR is up 4%, Enphase Energy +2%, Array Technologies +2%, SolarEdge Technologies +2%, and T1 Energy +6%. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is up nearly 3%.  Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:10

— Exit Narrative Begins: Trump's Muted Response To Hormuz Deal Suggests The 'Declare Victory & Leave' Moment Is Here

 

at 8/7/26 7:55am

Exit Narrative Begins: Trump's Muted Response To Hormuz Deal Suggests The 'Declare Victory & Leave' Moment Is Here President Trump's latest Iran comments came Thursday night, after a prior day wherein Iran and Oman unveiled their 'finalized' Hormuz management scheme, which most notably includes a ban on all US and Israeli vessels in the energy transit waterway.  As we reviewed earlier, the White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this stipulation alone may be too hard a pill for Trump to swallow, if accurate - given that it obviously leaves Iran in de facto control of the strait. Many pundits have pointed out it even leaves Iran with more leverage and power in the region than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury. But this is why Trump's comments to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday evening are surprising, given that instead of reacting angrily and outright condemning the Iran-Oman plan, his reaction was somewhat muted and meager. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development. via Reuters "I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer," the president said, while leaving his meaning ambiguous. Asserting once again that the US is involved in negotiations with Tehran (something the Iranians have been vehemently denying all along), Trump added that "I think we’re doing fine." The only thing Trump truly got angry about Thursday was related to the domestic side of the conflict, after US major media published several reports saying the Pentagon is perilously low on missiles and interceptors, which have been drained after nearly six months of war. He blasted 'treasonous' 'fake reporting' and even threatened to jail 'leakers' over the reports (the inherent contradiction says a lot here). But again, Trump's penchant for raging against 'dishonest' and 'evil' Iranian leaders has been curiously absent over the last several days as the US bombs have fallen silent - after he called off planned 'harder' strikes over the weekend (or the last big TACO moment, among many prior). This relative quiet at the White House comes even after Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the United States and Trump's theatrics and constant changes of course on X. He wrote Thursday: "Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate." That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater. All of this change in Washington tone and posture suggests this could finally be the moment for a true offramp, as the US faces a 'go big or get out' realization, and as the prospect of slogging through months more of a developing quagmire becomes too politically and economically costly. This is potentially the declare 'victory' and get out moment. As former Congressman Ron Paul has put it: Just Walk Away! Trump: I think the war with Iran will end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer. Q: Have you reached a deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz? Trump: It’s sort of open right now. pic.twitter.com/J3lcPyuVwM — Acyn (@Acyn) August 6, 2026 This is further evidenced in Trump's sudden realism, expressed late Thursday in the same Oval Office presser. When asked about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, he admitted that "it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are." He further acknowledged:  "People don’t want" to risk ships worth billions of dollars and expose them to the possibility of accidentally hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, he conceded. Trump also claimed Thursday that Hormuz is "sort of open right now," although fewer than 10 ships per day transited from Sunday through Tuesday, according to Kpler data. Of course, the US and Iran have been involved in several of these 'pauses' and cooling off periods before, which were later revealed to be the 'calm before the storm'. Tehran has since wised up and pointed out that the Pentagon used these interim periods of no fighting to just rearm, reposition, and ramp up military supply flights to the region. Joe Kent, a top national security official who resigned in protest of the Iran war upon the very start of the operation, is welcoming these signs that Trump is finally seeking to extricate the US from the conflict at all costs: Trump is messaging that he won the war— this is a good first step in extricating us from what would otherwise be a catastrophic mistake. The reality is, the best “deal” we can make with Iran at this point that works in our favor is to just leave—it’s the only case in which POTUS then holds the cards. He needs to “close the deal” now, before the Iranians force him back into a shooting war. We simply can’t assume that Iran will wait idly for us to make the next move. Alarmingly, it seems we are failing to account for just how aggressively killing the Ayatollah & bombing the girls’ school has radicalized Iranian leadership & its people—it’s very likely that Iran will feel compelled to drag us back into the war in order to force the U.S. to retreat, bloodied, both for the sake of its national honor & for deterrence. Trump can end this by pulling our troops & ships out of the region now—deprive Iran of targets to hit and the leverage they need to escalate. Trump says we’ve won, therefore we can bring them home. So either Trump is indeed preparing to go bigger, or this is - belatedly - the final 'cut and run' moment that probably the majority of the American public has been hoping for. Another sign, via his Truth Social latest, that Trump could finally be willing to say 'mission accomplished' and get out, while letting the regional and oil transit 'chips fall': The deadly alternative to simply declaring an exit is an eventual introduction of ground troops and full-on regime change. Thankfully, Trump officials have continued to by and large condemn this as a legitimate scenario - given it would surely once again put US forces in a new 'forever war' that would last years or even decades. Read our: Visualizing Iran's Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire But in the meantime, the Iranians do smell weakness and blood in the water. Just before US markets closed Thursday, Tehran announced its forces attacked and struck 'hostile targets' at Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is remaining defiant, and even sees itself in the driver's seat with its ability to wage asymmetric warfare against a much larger US foe which is confused on what to do next. This was also on display with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having asserted this week in an interview, "Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted." He added that these pressures have "reached their maximum". Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:55

— Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

 

at 8/7/26 7:40am

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem... Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, Normally, you can find some parts of the job report that “fight” against the headline. That somewhere in the details is a potentially different narrative. Maybe it’s because I’m lazy on a summer Friday, but difficult to see what it is in this report. But let’s start with the most important point Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data? As you know, I’ve argued for years that it seems insane that in this day and age, where we have real time data on almost every aspect of our lives, we are content to kind of stick a finger in the air, and take a wild stab at estimating jobs. I think the data source task force is the most important (and potentially useful thing Warsh has created). The data task force is too limited in scope, if anything. Establishment headline is -23k. Estimate was 80k. Revisions for past two months were -103k! Maybe the estimate would not have been for 80k, if the initial reports for the prior months reflected reality and didn’t need to be revised lower? Not sure this is “good” news for the workers, but wage growth was anemic (even as the renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing up the price of energy products). The unemployment rate has dropped from 4.3% to 4.1% in the past two months. On the surface, maybe that is good. But the unemployment rate is based on the household survey which had a loss of 87k this month, which is “better” than last month’s loss of 507k jobs. The 4 month total number of jobs in the household survey is month than 600,000 lost jobs! The unemployment rate is only lower because the participation rate has dropped from 61.8% to 61.4% in two months (let’s not forget, this is occurring with record cap ex on data center/AI build). Okay, now my “favorite” the birth/death model. I will admit I’m not sure how the seasonally adjusted birth/death model translates into a number of jobs in the establishment survey, but this “model” showed 235k jobs added by new businesses being formed. Maybe companies are being formed to take advantage of the AI/Data Center spend. It is in line with last July’s birth/death adjustment, so maybe it didn’t impact things. But I always struggle when “plugs” or “models” seem to be bigger than the actual numbers. Honestly, I have no idea if today’s numbers are the aberration or whether it was what was originally reported, but that is the point! How are we making decisions based on data that seems to be a wild guess (apologies to wild guesses)? Sure, if there is no way to get better, more accurate, timely data, then we’d have to live with it. We had to live with carrier pigeons at one time. I find it difficult to believe that a nation that put astronauts on the moon, cannot figure out a better way to calculate data that is so crucial to decision making! So, yes, Houston, we have a problem, but the bigger problem isn’t today’s numbers, it is that we don’t really know what numbers are correct or not! On the other hand, my view that we don’t see a hike this year looks better today, than it did a week ago (and that is with no “deal” in Iran, which any deal, will also help). Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:40

— Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

 

at 8/7/26 7:20am

Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times, The Islamic Society of Tulsa has filed a federal lawsuit against the City of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, and four individual city council members after the city denied its request to build a mosque and Islamic community center. The suit, which was filed on Aug. 3, alleges the denial violated the U.S. Constitution, the federal Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act, and Oklahoma law by discriminating against Muslims. The city of Broken Arrow said in an email to The Epoch Times that it does not comment on lawsuits. The city acknowledged on July 28 that the U.S. Department of Justice had started an investigation into the matter. “The City Council and Administration are fully engaged with the DOJ in its investigation,” the city stated, adding it would have no further comment. The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division is investigating whether Broken Arrow violated the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act after denying the rezoning application for the Islamic Society of Tulsa. According to the complaint, the Islamic Society of Tulsa bought about 15 acres of land in Broken Arrow in 2014 with the intention of building a mosque, a community center, and a small commercial development. City planning staff concluded the proposal complied with the city’s comprehensive plan and recommended approval. The Broken Arrow Planning Commission also voted to recommend approval after a lengthy public hearing. The lawsuit claims the proposal was rejected by the City Council after “a wave of bigoted opposition from members of the community and local politicians.” Despite recommendations from city staff and the Planning Commission, the City Council voted 4–1 on Jan. 12 to deny both the rezoning request and the conditional use permit. The lawsuit further alleges the city approved similar rezoning and permitting requests for Christian churches and commercial developments while allowing those applicants to address traffic and engineering issues later in the approval process. The complaint seeks a court order allowing the project to proceed, a declaration that the city’s actions were unlawful, and monetary damages including attorneys’ fees. It also notes the DOJ’s investigation into whether the city violated federal religious land-use protections. Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond is asking the Trump administration to halt the DOJ investigation. In a letter to President Donald Trump and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, Drummond called the investigation “federal overreach” and said land-use decisions should be left to state and local officials. Drummond also asked the DOJ to withdraw requests for records involving private citizens, require senior-level approval for any further investigative steps, and coordinate with the Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office before taking additional action against Oklahoma municipalities. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:20

— Bonds & Bullion Jump, Dollar Dumps As Rate-Hike Odds Slump After Payrolls Miss

 

at 8/7/26 7:05am

Bonds & Bullion Jump, Dollar Dumps As Rate-Hike Odds Slump After Payrolls Miss As we noted in our preview, today's payrolls print was indeed "bad news is good news" as the surprise five-sigma miss (-23k) on payrolls (albeit with a drop in the unemployment rate) sent rate-hike odds reeling lower... “History doesn’t repeat, but sometimes it rhymes. For the third time in as many years, July jobs data saw a mid-summer loss of momentum. While incoming inflation data will be the ultimate arbiter, slowing jobs growth helps support a September hold,” says Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. That helped smash Treasury yields lower, led by the short-end... ...which in turn crushed the dollar... ...lifting gold above $4350... Some good news for Bessent, JPY is strengthening... Stocks are also soaring, with Nasdaq leading the way... Admittedly, as JPMorgan's Feroli flagged, technical effects such unwinding of World Cup-related hiring could have driven the softer payroll print... Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, says on Bloomberg TV, “I’d be hesitant to just write this report off.” He says that the decline in the unemployment rate essentially reflects a drop in the supply side of the labor market.  ... but for now, the panic among the Fed whisperers that Warsh has unleashed more uncertainty (and is driving up the term premium) is now a back story as attention shifts from inflation back to growth. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:05

— July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1%

 

at 8/7/26 6:49am

July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1% Ahead of today's jobs report, in our payrolls preview we warned that "July Has Emerged As A Very Poor Month For Jobs" and boy were we right: moments ago the BLS reported that in July, the US labor force shrank by a whopping 23K, sharply lower from a downward revised 20K in June (from 57K), and the worst print since the negative 156K in February. As noted above, the -23K print was below all estimates... ... and was a 5-sigma miss to estimates... ... as the 80K median estimate was missed by more than 100K. And here come the Biden admin tricks of massive prior revisions: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to  +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported Yet despite the dismal Establishment Survey print, the unemployment rate actually declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, which was as a result of the number of Unemployed workers declining by 178K, more than the decline in Employed workers, which shrank by just 87K. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for teenagers (12.1%) and people who are Hispanic (4.6%) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult  women (3.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (6.3 percent), or Asian (4.0  percent) showed little change over the month. Part and parcel with the sudden chill in the labor market was the big miss in average hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% MoM (below estimates of 0.3% and below last month's 0.3% increase), which in turn translated into a 3.2% annual increase, also far below the 3.5% median estimate. Developing. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:49

— Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan Sign Islamic NATO-Style Defense Pact Amid Iran War

 

at 8/7/26 6:40am

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan Sign Islamic NATO-Style Defense Pact Amid Iran War On Friday Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a major defense agreement as leaders gathered in the city of Makkah, Saudi Arabia. It seeks to strengthen joint deterrence and expanding defense cooperation, the Saudi Press Agency reported. It is essentially a NATO-style agreement for the 'Muslim world' - given that it stipulates and formalizes that an armed attack on any of the countries will be treated as an attack against all of them. Formally called the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, it "reflects the three nations’ commitment to bolstering their collective security and promoting peace, security and stability in the region and the wider world," SPA reported. The combined estimated population of these Muslim-majority countries is 380 million people, or according to the high estimates... approaching 400 million. Al Jazeera comments on the significance of the historic pact as follows: This is more than a diplomatic get-together and the signing of an agreement. This essentially puts three of the largest Muslim populations together on the roadmap for joint peace, for deterring any act of aggression against them, for making sure that they are in tune with each other when it comes to intelligence sharing, gathering all of the information that is required, and also enhancing cooperation in all sorts of spheres – whether it’s energy, defence expenditure or manufacturing, among others. Pakistan brings with it, obviously, its nuclear arsenal, battle-hardened military, and munitions it has been supplying. Turkiye, with its advanced drone and munitions systems, is a NATO member, combined with the economic power of Saudi Arabia. The three of them combined now present a force that will take this region towards a different security architecture than the one in place over the last few decades, especially in the wake of the Iran war. Indeed this further formalizes Pakistan's nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia, which lacks atomic weapons. Turkey does not have its own nukes either, but plays host to US nuclear weapons as part of NATO. Turkey maintains the second-largest military within the NATO alliance, behind the United States. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already have a bilateral defense pact, somewhat recently inked, which has lately seen Islamabad deploy 8,000 troops, a ​squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia. The Saudi kingdom has lately been subject of sporadic 'retaliatory' attacks from Iran in the context of the war, and has earlier even responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran. And so already on the inking of the historic Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, one of the signatories finds itself (unwillingly) on the front lines of a conflict - given it also plays host to American forces - though isn't necessarily a key, direct participant in it. The Saudis have thus far relied largely on US defenses to protect themselves. Turkey has opposed Trump's Operation Epic Fury, and is an avowed enemy of Israel - and so this pact will only serve to further distance Saudi Arabia from entering the Abrahama Accords and establishing lasing normalization with Israel. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:40

— Can Sam Altman Be Trusted Inside Your Home? Meet OpenAI's New Always-On Smart Speaker

 

at 8/7/26 6:30am

Can Sam Altman Be Trusted Inside Your Home? Meet OpenAI's New Always-On Smart Speaker Trust remains OpenAI's biggest problem. Sam Altman's public feud with Elon Musk, combined with Apple's allegations that OpenAI stole trade secrets, has only intensified concerns surrounding the company's leadership and governance. Amid this glaring trust issue, OpenAI now wants to place what Bloomberg describes as "essentially a smart speaker without a display" inside millions of homes. Equipped with microphones, cameras, and environmental sensors, the $300 device would function as an always-on intelligence platform, potentially collecting voice, visual, behavioral, and household data. OpenAI’s first device is a smart speaker without a display and costs $300+. Here is a ChatGPT mock-up based on article: ▫️doughnut/ring shape ▫️size of a hockey puck ▫️have camera, speakers, microphone, lights ▫️interactive moving parts to make it feel “more alive” than… https://t.co/xmlPJniAd1 pic.twitter.com/qf1THJFNwT — Trung Phan (@TrungTPhan) August 6, 2026 The unresolved question is not what the device can perceive, but what OpenAI will retain, analyze, and ultimately monetize. Bloomberg added more color on the device: OpenAI is looking to break new ground with the product, which is slated for release in 2027. The device will be positioned as an AI-first computer that can help users get things done, the people said. OpenAI's smart speaker was designed with Jony Ive's LoveFrom studio and represents the startup's first major push into consumer hardware. Apple's lawsuit alleging the misuse of proprietary metal-finishing techniques could complicate the rollout, though OpenAI denies the claims and insists it is building something fundamentally different from Apple's products. Amazon's Alexa devices and other smart speakers have already exposed major privacy risks to consumers. OpenAI's ambition to learn users' routines, observe their surroundings, and personalize interactions raises these concerns even higher, particularly when trust in Altman's AI startup remains complicated. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:30

— Futures Rise Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report

 

at 8/7/26 6:26am

Futures Rise Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report US futures grind higher in a European session devoid of newsflow ahead of nonfarm payrolls. As of 815am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, with some of yesterday’s beaten up tech names such as Sandisk and Western Digital getting some reprieve in the premarket. Asian stocks swung between a loss of as much as 0.5% and gain of 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi declined as much as 2.2% before paring the loss; the index was headed to its seventh weekly drop, longest losing streak in more than three years. Nikkei and Taiex indexes also drift lower while indexes rose in mainland China.  Oil was given a boost in APAC hours as progress on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive and a report noted that Iran attacked “hostile targets” in the Strait of Hormuz; but upside has since wavered with Brent now in the red and near session lows. US yields which track oil tick for tick, are down around 1bps across the curve with odds of a September Fed hike at around 60% as the clock ticks down to jobs data. The dollar is down 0.1% after posting its biggest advance in two weeks during the New York session. USD/JPY is maintaining its position on a 158 handle. Precious metals are marching higher with spot gold trading on a $4300/oz handle for the first time since mid-June. Bitcoin is up 0.7%. On today's calendar we get the US July jobs report; other data releases include NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit. The Fed’s Barkin will also speak today. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Nvidia +0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%) Applied Opto (AAOI) is up 14% after second-quarter earnings and revenue from the fiber-optic networking gear firm beat estimates. Peers including Fabrinet and Coherent gain. Atlassian (TEAM) soars 32% after the maker of Trello collaborative software reported an increase in quarterly revenue, easing concerns that AI would hurt the business. Cloudflare (NET) rallies 17% after the software company hikes its annual profit forecast, beating the average analyst estimate. DraftKings (DKNG) shares slip 3.6% in premarket trading after the sports-betting company reported revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Doximity (DOCS) soars 78% after the company raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027. Figs (FIGS) jumps 29% after the medical-apparel maker posted a beat on second quarter results and upped its forecast for full-year adjusted Ebitda margin. Gold and silver stocks are rising in premarket Friday, with gold on track for its best week in more than six months as dip buyers supported prices. Maplebear Inc. (CART), doing business as Instacart, jumps 12% after the company’s forecast for third-quarter gross transaction value beat the average analyst estimate. Sezzle (SEZL) slides 22% as analysts look past the financial technology firm’s outlook upgrade for 2026, and say expectations had already built up around the earnings following the stock 181% year-to-date rally. Solar stocks rise in premarket Friday after President Donald Trump ordered new 15% tariffs and a price floor for imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells and solar modules. Sweetgreen (SG) sinks 15% after the salad chain cut its annual outlook after warning that diners are less willing to eat fresh prepared foods during the cyclospora outbreak. Trade Desk (TTD) tumbles 27% after the advertising technology company#s reported earnings for the second quarter and gave a third-quarter-revenue forecast that missed analyst estimates. At least four brokerages downgraded their rating on the stock In other news, SK Hynix plans a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of its DRAM and NAND manufacturing in South Korea, part of the giant outlay announced earlier in the summer. Jane Street is negotiating with investors in a private-credit deal to rework the firm’s $11 billion debt load and limit its financial disclosures to market participants. The FAA has asked operators of 471 Boeing 737 Max jets to undertake checks for cracks of a component that could undermine the structural integrity of the aircraft. Ahead of today's main event, the July jobs data at 8:30am (full preview here), which will give Warsh further insight into whether to keep rates on hold or hike, the median estimate for nonfarm payrolls change is 80k, following 57k in June. Crowd-sourced whisper number is currently 78k.  JPMorgan market intelligence scenarios show that a hawkish reading, leading to negative market reaction, would be a print above 150k. Stronger-than-expected data could trigger a pullback in risk assets by reinforcing expectations that rates will stay higher for longer. Goldman notes that alternative measures of employment growth slowed modestly in July.  “Kevin Warsh’s ambiguity at the July FOMC means data releases like today’s payrolls carry greater risks of an outsized market reaction,” ING Bank strategists including Frantisek Taborsky wrote in a note. “We are still looking at no Fed cuts and dollar softening going forward.” “A weaker top-line figure will be enough to spark rallies in Treasuries even if it’s paired with subdued unemployment, because slowdown risk would begin to make its way onto the curve if fixed-income investors fear that rosters could start contracting,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note. Oil retreated from Thursday’s sharp rise as traders weighed negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz against renewed tensions, with Tehran seeking to bar US ships from a deal to partially restore shipping through the critical waterway. Brent crude fell 0.7% to below $82 a barrel, bringing its decline this week to 6.9%. Elsewhere, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said EPS optimism is soaring, while recommending investors retreat from risk assets and/or rotate into some defensives (staples), duration (REITs, small cap, biotech) and US dollar, all protected from ongoing tightening of financial conditions. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rises to 9.7 from 9.4, the highest since 2021 and in “sell signal” territory. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% as European equities edged higher on Friday with technology and health care stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are telecommunications and energy shares. Novo Nordisk A/S climbed 4.6% after a US judge threw out an antitrust lawsuit against its blockbuster weight-loss drug.  Among other movers in Europe, Kingspan Group Plc surged to a four-year high after the insulation specialist lifted full-year guidance. Genmab A/S jumped 8.3% after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected second quarter profit and boosted its outlook for the full year. Daimler Truck Holding AG fell 4% after reporting results. Here are the biggest movers Friday: Kingspan shares rise as much 17% after the insulation specialist topped expectations in the first half and lifted its trading profit guidance for the full year Genmab jumps as much as 10%, the most since February 2024, after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected revenue and operating income for the second quarter and boosted its outlook for the full year Novo Nordisk gains as much as 5.4%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index and putting the stock back into positive territory for the week Mol rises as much as 2.6% after the Hungarian refiner reported Clean CCS Ebitda for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate Aurubis shares drop as much as 5.7%, extending Thursday’s 5.5% decline following the copper smelter’s one-year delay to a new American smelting complex. Deutsche Bank cut its price target slightly Daimler Truck falls as much as 4.4% after the German firm announced weaker orders than analysts had expected and softer third-quarter guidance after its second-quarter results were pre-released last month Stellantis drops as much as 3.8% as the carmaker was downgraded to underperform from market-perform at Bernstein, which says there is still substantial scope for estimate reductions Orlen slips as much as 3.5% after the Polish refiner reported second-quarter results that analysts described as mixed. Wood & Co analysts cited disappointing oil & gas production despite favorable market conditions Amrize drops as much as 11%, on course to close at a record-low, after the building-materials company missed earnings expectations in the second quarter and cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the year Lanxess falls as much as 6.2% after the German chemical firm posted results that Goldman Sachs analysts said offered little to sustain recent positive momentum Munich Re declines as much as 5.3%, the most since May and the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the year Erdemir falls as much as 6.6%, the most since May 21, as its second-quarter profit beat was attributed to a positive tax expense rather than operations Asian stocks traded in a narrow range, as investors stayed cautious ahead of US payrolls data while awaiting concrete signs of progress on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a loss of as much as 0.5% and gain of as much as 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.6%, while indexes in China advanced.  SK Hynix narrowed losses in post-market trading on Nextrade after the company announced plans for a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of its local chipmaking facilities. The company also said it will detail shareholder return plans in the third quarter. The overall relative market calm after recent big swings belied ongoing unease over a tech-led rally that has faltered in the past month, as investors look for clues on sustainability of the AI boom. US-Iran talks are also keeping traders on their toes, with the impact on oil prices keenly in focus. The US jobs report due later Friday will give clues on the health of the world’s largest economy. Here Are the Most Notable Movers SBI reported net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. SK Hynix is actively considering additional shareholder returns and will announce details in 3Q, according to a regulatory filing. China rare earth stocks jump as growing optimism over their strategic importance amid US-China tensions boosts sentiment. Wharf Real Estate Investment shares rise after JPMorgan upgraded the firm to overweight from neutral while Citi opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch. Lasertec shares fell 14%, after the Japanese semiconductor company’s full-year operating income guidance fell short of the average analyst estimate. Bridgestone reported adjusted operating profit for the first half-year that beat the average analyst estimate. Eneos reported operating income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. China rare earth stocks jump as growing optimism over their strategic importance amid US-China tensions boosts sentiment. Obayashi reported operating income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Wharf Real Estate Investment shares rise as much as 8.3%, after JPMorgan upgraded the firm to overweight from neutral while Citi opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch. Fujifilm Holdings Corp. shares fell by the most on record after the Japanese company reported weaker-than-projected quarterly results. “It’s the caution on Middle East conflict and secondarily on interest rate direction,” said Xin-Yao Ng, a fund manager at Aberdeen. “In tech as well, there have been some earnings misses, and investors are starting to take more nuanced views on stocks, more driven on stock specific factors than being driven by blanket views on sectors.” In FX. the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. USD/JPY is maintaining its position on a 158 handle.  US support for Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar’s status as the most dominant reserve currency, according to Goldman Sachs.  In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve led by 5- to 7-year sectors, supported by lower oil prices as traders weigh negotiations between Iran and Oman against renewed tensions. Treasury yields richer by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with key curve spreads steeper by less than a basis point. US 10-year yield is around 4.66% as Treasuries slightly outperform European bonds. US session main event is July jobs report, with around 60% of a quarter-point rate hike priced in for Fed’s September policy meeting. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Alphabet’s jumbo offering headlined a $37b docket Thursday, bringing weekly supply to $80b. Issuers paid about 12bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.8 times oversubscribed. In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.7% after erasing gains. Precious metals are marching higher with spot gold trading on a $4300/oz handle for the first time since mid-June. Bitcoin is up 0.7%. Today's top event is the July jobs data at 8:30am, where the median estimate for nonfarm payrolls change is 80k, following 57k in June. Crowd-sourced whisper number is currently 78k. US economic data calendar also includes July 1-year NY Fed inflation expectations (11am) and June consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Richmond Fed’s Barkin at 10am Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The Houthis conducted a “large-scale” attack against forces from Yemen’s Saudi-backed government killing “hundreds” of troops. They also struck the southwestern Saudi region of Najran, raising concerns over a widening of the US-Israeli war on Iran into a broader conflict. BBG Trump said negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are “moving along,” even after some Iranian lawmakers said they would seek to bar American and Israeli ships from the waterway as part of the deal: BBG According to the apparent draft plan published by Iran, the country would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait. Until compensation is paid, other nations that have harmed Iran would not be allowed to transit. While Iran and Oman are reportedly working on an agreement to define transit routes in the Hormuz strait, a deal still has not been announced. According to media reports, inbound traffic would transit Iranian waters while outbound traffic would go through Omani waters. CNBC The war on Iran is hitting nations in Asia hard, with Australia and New Zealand racking up billions of dollars in higher fuel costs: BBG Trump ordered new tariffs and price floors on imported polysilicon used in chips and solar panels. The 15% levies take effect December 4th and could trigger a rush of purchases. BBG Chinese firm Moonshot’s latest artificial intelligence model broke out of a cyber-testing environment in the latest incident that raises concerns about how well AI companies control their technology. Moonshot joins US firms Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta., which have in recent weeks reported breaches that saw their models escape testing environments. BBG China’s July crude imports rebounded 22% from June to 35.7 million tons, while inbound shipments of iron ore fell. Soybean purchases tumbled more than 15% in the same period. BBG Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell for a seventh month, declining 3.3% in June, even as real wages continued to increase. BBG SK Hynix will invest about $38 billion to build two new chip plants in South Korea, adding to efforts to rapidly double its production capacity and ease a global shortage of memory. It also announced it could make a formal statement on shareholder capital return in Q3. BBG/Reuters U.S. job growth likely picked up in July, offering reassurance that the labor market remained resilient and allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its focus on inflation. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report today at 8:30am is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% last month even as the labor ‌force participation rate is anticipated to have rebounded after declining to more than a five-year low in June. Reuters Airbnb jumped premarket after boosting its revenue forecast for the second time this year on robust global travel demand, particularly in the US and Europe. BBG Japan’s ¥317.76 trillion ($2 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund posted a record 8.2% gain in the three months ended in June: BBG US President Trump, when asked if Fed Governor Warsh could hike ahead of the mid-terms, said it’s "up to him a little bit, but not completely" and continued to praise Warsh. Within the interview Trump also suggested that GOP voters may not come to vote as he is not on the ballot, saying "They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me." US President Trump said it is way too early to think about a JD Vance endorsement [for President]. BofA's weekly flow report noted USD 53.7bln into cash, USD 32.9bln into stocks, USD 23.1bln into bonds, USD 0.9bln into gold and USD 0.6bln into crypto. Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 (from 9.4). A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, while participants also digested a busy slate of earnings and the latest Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was little changed as strength in materials, energy and miners counterbalanced the underperformance in the financials and defensive sectors, while participants also reflected on the somewhat mixed trade data from Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 declined amid a busy day of earnings and with risk sentiment not helped by disappointing Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction, while a government official noted that typhoons, cold weather and more rain led to reduced beverage and dining out expenses. KOSPI retreated with price action initially choppy amid some earnings releases and the mixed performances seen in South Korea's tech heavyweights. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark in relatively flat territory, while the mainland outperformed after the latest Chinese trade data, which showed exports topped forecasts, and imports missed with a sharper-than-forecast deceleration, but continued to show double-digit percentage growth. Top Asian News Japanese Finance Ministry data showed Japan conducted yen buying intervention on a total of three days in April and May, while the largest daily intervention in April-June quarter was JPY 6.2787tln on April 30th European bourses begin Friday's trade mixed, with the DAX 40 outperforming while the IBEX 35 lags. Focus still remains on the Middle East. Overnight, MS News reported that Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved. Sectors lack a clear bias. Health Care tops the sector pile, after Genmab's (+9.2%) H1 revenue rose Y/Y and lifted its FY outlook. Tech and Media round out the top 3 outperformers. To the downside is Telecoms, with Utilities and Travel & Leisure following suit. Top European News German Balance of Trade (Jun) 15.4B vs. Exp. 17.4B (Prev. 19.1B). German Exports MoM (Jun) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%). German Imports MoM (Jun) M/M 4.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -2.5%). German Industrial Production MoM (Jun) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%). French Balance of Trade (Jun) -5.8B vs. Exp. -6.5B (Prev. -6.9B). French Exports (Jun) 54.5B (Prev. 53.6B). French Imports (Jun) 60.4B (Prev. 60.5B). French Unemployment Rate (Q2) 8.3% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.1%). FX Very quiet action in G10 FX ahead of this afternoon's NFP. DXY flat against all G10 peers (ex. Scandis) ahead of US Payrolls, trading just below 100.00 as it did throughout APAC. Expectations are for the US economy to have added 88K nonfarm payrolls in July, up from June’s 57K, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.2%. Some desks also flag the possibility of large revisions given survey modelling factors. Compiling banks' scenario analysis, the likely reaction will be the typical dovish on a soft headline print and hawkish on a hot figure. GS and JPM flag the unwinding of World Cup-related hiring and a rebound in labour force participation which could skew July toward softer payrolls. Deutsche Bank summarises, "In summary, if the labour market data remain stable as we expect, Fed officials will be left with one side of its dual mandate to focus on inflation.", a view more in line with FT sources citing Governor Warsh's focus on incoming inflation data as reported on Thursday. Scandis are modestly outperforming today, EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK finding further sellers both below 11.00. Guidance at the Norges Bank decision next week could further cement a hike later in the year and increase appetite for carry. EUR/SEK may remain in tighter ranges with the 50 DMA above at 10.99, and 100DMA below at 10.92. EUR/NOK is below all significant DMAs, with the 100DMA above at 11.00. Action is quiet elsewhere. EUR outperforms vs. most CEE currencies after a somewhat dovish CNB meeting on Thursday, while HUF reacts to soft July inflation data which fell beneath previous and the NBH's forecast. Fixed Income A contained start to the final session of the week for fixed, with the market now waiting for US NFP and a concrete update on the situation between the US and Iran. USTs in a narrow 108-13 to 108-17 parameter, into Payrolls. Proxies into the print have been mixed, weekly claims hit nearly a 60yr low, but in contrast the ADP figure was below consensus. Similar divergence seen across other indicators, such as ISM. While pertinent, the main focus for the Fed is on the inflation side of the mandate, as officials continue to characterise the labour market as stable. As such, next week’s CPI may prove more influential, particularly after the FT sources piece on Thursday, which enhanced the focus on such prints into the next FOMC. Bunds and Gilts are also relatively contained, though with a bearish bias and are posting downside of around 20 ticks. Specifics for the space are a little light, the focus is firmly on the above factors. Bunds lower in a 124.71-89 band, while Gilts are off worst in 87.09-38 confines. Australia sells AUD 1bln 1.50% June 2031 bonds b/c 4.07, avg yield 4.5878%. Commodities WTI and Brent futures have been holding a mild positive bias since the futures reopen as tensions between the Houthis and Saudis grow, while questions remain regarding the Iran-Oman deal as Iranian reporting on the text of the deal pointed to unfavourable terms for the US and its regional allies. Add to that, sources noted that the sound of two explosions heard in Qeshm late on Thursday was due to a confrontation with hostile targets at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Markets await official details of the Iran-Oman deal and the US’ reaction. Newsflow throughout the European morning has been light, with WTI Sep’26 in a current USD 77.56-78.77/bbl range, whilst Brent Oct’26 resides in a USD 83.04-84.44/bbl range thus far. Dutch TTF is off highs but firmer intraday, briefly dipping under EUR 56.50/MWh after finding resistance near EUR 59/MWh. Metals are firmer despite the oil move, as markets continue to hope for US-Iran diplomacy. Spot gold gradually gained amid reports of the PBoC stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, although the precious metal remains within the prior day's parameters as participants await the key US jobs data. The yellow metal trades towards the top end of a USD 4,230-4,316/oz vs yesterday’s USD 4,224-4,304/oz range. Spot silver outperforms after topping yesterday’s USD 62.91/oz high and regains the USD 64/oz mark. Copper futures traded sideways but with modest intraday gains in a narrow USD 14,226.13- 14,106.85/t range for 3M LME, with the broader metals space awaiting NFP in the absence of fresh geopolitical updates. UBS forecasts Gold to reach USD 5k/oz in H1 2027; notes Gold prices may remain relatively volatile in the near term. Trade/Tariffs White House said tariffs on polysilicon and related products will begin at 00:01EDT on December 4th. Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian trade negotiators held productive and detailed talks with USTR Greer in Washington on Thursday. Central Banks Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) said inflation is too high and the balance of risks is tilted towards higher price pressures, while he added it is crucial that monetary policy puts meaningful restraint on inflation. Musalem commented it is wrong to keep rate policy easy, hoping to foster higher productivity rates. Furthermore, he favoured raising rates at the recent FOMC meeting and sees a higher probability that inflation will remain above the target, as well as stated that gradual rate increases are less costly than more abrupt rate changes. Geopolitics: Iran US President Trump said he thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and that the Strait of Hormuz is sort of opened right now. He later said that it is moving along good regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said we will not allow the opening of the second route in the Strait of Hormuz, and reiterated that if the blockade continues, American ships and forces will face serious dangers and casualties, according to Tasnim. Explosions were reportedly heard in Marib, western Yemen, according to Al Arabiya TV citing local sources. Saudi source said reliable intelligence reports indicate coordination between Houthi and Iraqi militias and the Revolutionary Guard to attack the Kingdom, Al Hadath reported. The source added that the coordination of militias against the Kingdom comes as negotiations are progressing positively and that the Kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to deal with any aggression. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are to sign joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to sources cited by Reuters. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said he thinks they are making progress on Russia and Ukraine. US intelligence finds Russian President Putin is seeking ways to test NATO resolve as grip on Ukraine slips and could test its resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to WSJ. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Jul Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 80k, prior 57k 8:30 am: Jul Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3.5k, prior 3k 8:30 am: Jul Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to another payrolls Friday. I'm trying to keep myself off the grid as much as possible at the moment as I've just started work on the annual long-term study. It's always daunting having a blank sheet of paper at the start of the process and trying to think of something original, interesting, analytical, and actionable. After over 20 years of doing it, when I finally find that combination, I'll let you know.  In terms of today's big number, our economists expect a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls. They suggest this would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports. Consensus is at 80k for both. Our economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis versus 4.19% last month, which was its lowest reading in a year, even if it was accompanied by a 0.3pp fall in the labour force participation. So there is a risk this corrects and we see a tick up to 4.3%. Ahead of this, markets have edged a bit more nervously into the end of the week over the last 24 hours as preliminary details on the finalized Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerged. The details, which included a permitting licensing framework and ban on US and Israeli vessels transiting, were reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, which cited a source from the country’s foreign ministry. So those conditions on the deal led Brent oil to rise +3.83% back up to $82.49/bbl, while WTI (+2.75% to $77.29/bbl) also spiked. European natural gas prices also rose +6.42% in their largest daily rise in two months. In turn, the higher energy prices weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.18%) down whilst sovereign yields ended the day notably higher. This morning Brent is another +1.98% higher after Fars also reported that Iran struck “hostile targets" at the entrance to the Strait.   Delving into more details of the proposed Iran-Oman deal first, whilst information is still trickling in, what we know based on the Fars reporting is that US and Israeli vessels would be prohibited from transiting through the Strait, with cargo related to Israel also banned. Other countries that caused damage to Iran will also not be granted a permit until the damage is compensated, with Iran stating that violators will face a penalty up to 20% of their cargo value. So this seems to be Iran setting the terms. Meanwhile, Reuters reported earlier in the day that Iran was seeking fees of 5% to 7% of the cargo price for ships transiting Hormuz, while Oman was discussing 3%. Either of these would be higher than the reported ad hoc payments Iran had received from ships back in the spring. The big doubt is whether such terms would be acceptable to the US. While prohibition of US-owned vessels might have a negligible practical impact, the US has been resistant to an outcome that would fall short of free movement through Hormuz. That said, Trump’s limited comments last night shied away from any escalation, saying that things are “moving along good”. The renewed rise in energy prices meant that investors dialed up inflation expectations again, with the US 1yr inflation swap rising by +11.0bps, its largest daily increase in four weeks. Meanwhile, the amount of Fed hikes priced by year-end rose by +3.0bps to 34bps. In turn, US treasury yields climbed higher yesterday, with 2, 10, and 30yr +6.6bps, +6.6bps and +5.6bps higher respectively. Real yields also rebounded, with the 5yr real yield up +3.5bps. And with yields and oil moving higher, the dollar (+0.25%) had its best day in two weeks.  Stronger data and continued labour market resilience also contributed to the move in rates. That included initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, which were a little lower than expected at 199k (vs 205k est), and the latest job cut announcements from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which fell to its lowest level in two years at 33,429 vs 45,849 the prior month. Finally, yesterday’s US non-farm productivity for Q2 (+1.4% vs +0.6% est) was also stronger than expected with upward revisions (from 0.3% to 0.8% for Q1).   Prior to the Oman-Iran deal news as well, markets got a fresh boost of hawkish sentiment after the FT reported that Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at next month’s meeting if inflation readings released in the coming weeks are hot. Citing sources close to Warsh, the article also argued that Warsh would use the policy rate as the main policy tool, consistent with a view that the balance sheet is not a feasible tool over the immediate policy-relevant horizon. On an interesting side note, the appearance of this article suggests that the FT could become the home of Fed sources going forward with the WSJ seemingly out of favour. Bessant's extraordinary social media posts critical of their Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timiraos on Wednesday perhaps set the scene for the passing of the baton.  Turning to equities now, the S&P 500 (-0.18%) dipped on the news of the details of the Oman-Iran deal. Tech indices saw mixed moves, with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.06%) slipping but the Mag-7 (+0.24%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.33%) managing to advance. Energy (+1.59%) was the only sector in the S&P 500 to post a clear advance, while more energy-exposed sectors including industrials (-0.83%) and materials (-0.79%) struggled.  In European markets, which closed shortly before the Fars News report, equities put in a more positive performance in comparison to US counterparts. The Stoxx 600 (+0.16%) and CAC 40 (+0.35%) posted fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.05%) also crept up. Only the FTSE 100 (-0.19%) underperformed. Similarly in rates, while the rise in inflation pricing was modest (+0.9bps for 5yr), nominal yields did move higher. Gilts led the rise, with the  10yr gilt yield up +4.8bps, followed by OATs (+3.3bps) and bunds (+2.9bps).  Asian equity markets are generally weaker this morning with the exception of Chinese related markets. The KOSPI (-1.10%) is trading lower again, extending its weekly losses to more than 6% and putting the index on course for a seventh consecutive weekly decline. The Nikkei (-0.55%) is also moving lower, although it remains on track to post a weekly gain of over +1.0%. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming, with the CSI 300 (+0.83%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%) both advancing. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.15%) is trading modestly higher, while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.03%) is struggling for direction. US equity futures and Treasuries are fairly flat this morning.  Earlier this morning, data showed that Japanese household spending unexpectedly contracted by 3.3% year-over-year in June, compared with market expectations for a 0.9% increase. This marked the seventh consecutive monthly decline, with spending likely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including multiple typhoons, heavier-than-usual rainfall, and below-average temperatures. If Japan could send some of that weather our way we would be very grateful.  To the day ahead now, we’ll receive the US July jobs report. Other data releases include NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit. In Europe, we’ll also receive Germany’s June trade balance and industrial production, France June current account balance, trade balance. The Fed’s Barkin will also speak today. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:26

— Global Food Prices Hit Three-Year High As War, Chokepoint Chaos And El Nino Spark Perfect Storm

 

at 8/7/26 5:45am

Global Food Prices Hit Three-Year High As War, Chokepoint Chaos And El Nino Spark Perfect Storm The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index climbed to a three-year high in July, extending its upward trajectory as conflicts across Eurasia (the Black Sea and the Hormuz chokepoint) disrupt critical trade routes and mounting El Niño risks threaten global harvests. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 131.09 last month, up .6% from the previous month, led by gains in grain, sugar, and vegetable oils. Wheat surged 5.8% during the month to a two-year high, while corn climbed 3.6%. Vegetable oil prices reached their highest since June 2022, while meat and dairy prices declined, according to the FAO. Fueling the price surge is the widening Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea, where attacks are increasing and threaten critical bulk-shipping corridors. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are also pushing food prices higher by raising energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs. Layered on top of all this are deteriorating crop conditions in major growing regions across the world as El Niño risks mount, a threat that has been flagged for many months. "Chances of a very strong El Niño are rising. Risks are concentrated in select EMs, with inflationary and fiscal pressures likely to outweigh growth risks. We view El Niño as a key sovereign credit risk, particularly for countries with weak fiscal buffers," Morgan Stanley analyst Emma Cerda wrote in a recent note. Earlier this week, UBS analyst Sreedhar Mahamkali identified five long-term forces likely to keep global food inflation "structurally higher" above its pre-pandemic average of about 2.5%. "While food inflation globally has fallen from the COVID peak, a new debate is emerging: is the c2.5% LT average obsolete?" the London-based managing director and equity-research analyst said. Mahamkali's first and most important long-term driver of elevated food prices is that "climate risk is global," and the number of institutional desks warning about El Niño is certainly on the rise. Read the full report here. Perhaps Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes will be proven right about his warning in mid-June (Read Here) that another food price spike could arrive in supermarkets this fall. He said that grocery inflation "may be on the way," citing a blended index of wages, diesel, and commodity costs. Putting it all together, the theme is clear: multiple pressures are converging across the global food supply chain, tilting the balance of risks toward higher prices. That is already visible at the supermarket, particularly in beef, even as chicken and pork remain comparatively affordable. Egg prices, meanwhile, have collapsed, but fresh warnings from Mexico suggest that avocados could be the next grocery staple to surge. For households, the best hedge may be to strengthen their own local food supply chains, whether by planting a backyard garden, buying directly from nearby farms, or building relationships with local farmers and cattle ranchers. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 07:45

— Meanwhile, In England... Idiocy Knows No Bounds

 

at 8/7/26 5:20am

Meanwhile, In England... Idiocy Knows No Bounds Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News, Mindless arson for online clout is torching farmers' livelihoods across England. Hay and straw stacks - vital winter feed and hard-earned harvest - are being deliberately set alight in a suspected TikTok challenge that treats the countryside like disposable content. West Mercia Police have circulated an urgent warning to farming groups after a string of overnight attacks. The force stated: "Following a recent spate of overnight arson attacks on hay stacks in the north of England there appears to be a TikTok challenge to 'set fire to as much stuff as possible.' I know the farming community will be aware of the dangers of the dry weather but if it is possible to send out a message to all your members to be extra vigilant." "Police believe the trend, targeting hay and straw stacks across northern England, may be linked to a TikTok challenge encouraging people to set fire to things in the countryside." Absolutely disgraceful behaviour. https://t.co/QYVHXRngnH — No Farmers, No Food (@NoFarmsNoFoods) August 5, 2026 Humberside Police are investigating six suspected deliberate bale fires reported overnight on 30 July across North Lincolnshire at East Butterwick, Messingham, Susworth and Kirton in Lindsey. Reports included suspicious dark-coloured vehicles and quad bike tracks near the stacks. Smoke could be seen for miles as firefighters tackled a large field fire. Read more: https://t.co/kwegie5HuO pic.twitter.com/x49bMKAR2F — BBC Humberside (@RadioHumberside) August 5, 2026 Around the same period, about 1,200 hay bales were destroyed in a major overnight fire near Saxondale Island close to Bingham in Nottinghamshire, treated as suspected arson. In Oxfordshire, a fire involving around 600 hay bales tore through stacks in the village of Hinton Waldrist on 20 July; Thames Valley Police continue to investigate. Fire service believe major grassland blaze was 'started deliberately' https://t.co/dUzST0LAov — Stourbridge News (@StourbridgeNews) August 4, 2026 Roughly 250 hay bales were deliberately set alight at Hackpen Hill near Swindon in Wiltshire. The blaze, confirmed by police as thought to have been started deliberately, took firefighters more than 28 hours to extinguish. Neighbouring farmer James Hussey described it as "quite a loss" for the owner. Police believe that a fire involving hay bales near a popular beauty spot in Wiltshire was started "deliberately"https://t.co/ac52ryM5Ui — ITV News West Country (@itvwestcountry) August 3, 2026 Huge fire at beauty spot contained, say fire crews https://t.co/RVNYII2R6S — BBC Stoke & Staffordshire (@BBCRadioStoke) August 6, 2026 Huge blaze destroys tractor and 50 tonnes of hay https://t.co/Thn8EX3VO9 — Daily Echo (@dailyecho) August 5, 2026 Near South Milford a deliberate hay bale fire spread across 15 acres of fields. North Yorkshire Police stated: "Deliberately setting fire to hay bales not only causes significant financial loss to farmers but also presents a serious risk to life, property, livestock, and the wider countryside, particularly during periods of warm and dry weather." Prestatyn, North Wales, sand dunes on fire pic.twitter.com/qvPpXNfAUR — Lady Featherdown ?? (@Melissag0ec) August 2, 2026 'Deliberate' field fire damages houses and gardens https://t.co/cFQ87u8HIg — BBC Yorkshire (@BBCLookNorth) August 6, 2026 Major incident declared and warnings to stay away as Ferndale wildfire spreads: https://t.co/cH2oLTPm3Q Footage credit: South Wales Fire and Rescue service pic.twitter.com/YgQ4y1eL6t — ITV Wales News (@ITVWales) August 3, 2026 Jeremy Clarkson's Diddly Squat Farm was also reported as targeted in a suspected arson attack involving hay bale silos in early May 2026. Earlier in the season, in late June 2026, a Cambridgeshire farm near Peterborough experienced seven deliberate blazes over two nights that hit fields, hedgerows and a caravan. Farmer Judith Jacobs said: "Sadly, we experienced similar incidents several times last summer, and this kind of behaviour is completely unacceptable." Without deterrents crimes are contagious? Do you agree those who deliberately start fires should be financially held responsible for all services required & all damage caused? Huge wildfire sparks major incident in UK village as blaze lit 'deliberately' https://t.co/3QjSbP02fE — At Least The Thick Of It Were Pro UK (@ChaplinLorra) August 4, 2026 Firefighters prevented a large straw bale fire from spreading to a second stack after it broke out on farmland near Naseby:https://t.co/mGMOcQlrUz — HFM News (@hfmnews) August 6, 2026 ? Major Fire In The Fields Behind The Pywipe Industrial Estate Grimsby Factory's Are At Risk Of Burning Down More to follow... pic.twitter.com/tSlUpog2ha — Active Patriot (@ActivePatriotUK) August 2, 2026 Dry conditions have left crops, grassland and stored forage highly vulnerable. Fire services and rural teams are urging farmers to review CCTV, report suspicious activity immediately, lock sheds and outbuildings, install security lighting where practical, and keep hay and straw stored well away from fuels, chemicals and machinery. Fires started 'deliberately' on mountain as crews tackle blaze https://t.co/I6AzRtwseh — CE (@CarolPP9) August 4, 2026 Fire crews battle through night as Suffolk wildfire spreads to '210 football pitches' https://t.co/3z4JxSCoR9 — The Sun (@TheSun) July 31, 2026 Farmers already battle weather, regulation and thin margins. Deliberate fires on top of that threaten winter feed stocks, next year's harvest and the basic security of the food chain. Rural communities are left footing the cost while the perpetrators chase likes. Deliberate fire at stunning Devon country parkhttps://t.co/TNoKJSS78L — Marcus Middleton (@Salacious282vs) August 5, 2026 Expect the usual suspects to try reframing this as another "climate emergency." Alarmists have a long record of blaming every dry-weather fire on global warming while ignoring clear evidence of deliberate human action. This particular brand of idiocy - setting things alight for clicks - is not new and shows no sign of stopping. It keeps happening because the platforms reward it and the consequences rarely stick. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 07:20

— $109,796 In Earnings Needed To Afford Typical US Home

 

at 8/7/26 4:55am

$109,796 In Earnings Needed To Afford Typical US Home The income needed in order to purchase a typical home for sale in the United States in June was $109,796, marginally lower than the record high $110,382 in 2025, real estate brokerage Redfin said in an Aug. 5 report. Housing affordability has remained largely flat year over year since monthly housing costs and people’s incomes are growing at a similar rate, Redfin said. However, the income needed to purchase a house has been dropping consistently since October. While the income required is around $22,000 higher than the earnings of a typical household, it’s an improvement compared to $26,000 a year ago, according to the report. Redfin Senior Economist Yingqi Xu said that the double-digit gap between what a typical household makes in a year and the income needed to comfortably buy a home is leaving many prospective buyers on the sidelines. On the plus side, “even if the market isn’t becoming much more affordable, it is becoming a bit more manageable for house hunters,” Xu said. “It’s a buyer’s market in most of the country, especially places that were once pandemic homebuying hotspots like Nashville and Austin, giving buyers lots of options to choose from and strong negotiating power.” According to Redfin, the income needed to afford a house surged in 2022 and 2023 as home prices skyrocketed amid the COVID-19 pandemic buying frenzy. Mortgage rates also doubled during this period. For the week ending Jan. 6, 2021, the average weekly rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.65 percent, according to data from Freddie Mac. This rose to 7.79 percent for the week ending Oct. 25, 2023. While rates have come down since then, they remain elevated. The persistently high rates contribute to keeping monthly mortgage payments on the higher side. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in an Aug. 4 statement that home prices rose in 80 percent of tracked metro markets in the second quarter this year, which is considerably higher than the 71 percent of metros in the first quarter. Despite elevated mortgage rates, home sales increased, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said in the statement, suggesting that this points to a buildup in housing demand due to steady jobs and income gains. “It is welcoming to see incomes rising faster than home prices, which has helped boost affordability—but the big short-term challenge to affordability is coming from rising mortgage rates,” Yun said. However, as Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times, real estate marketplace Zillow said that 2026 year-end mortgage rates could be 6.4 percent, which would put it slightly higher compared to the fall and winter of 2025. This would not only erode any affordability gains made recently, but also make it difficult for property listings and sales to remain above year-ago levels. Affordability Situation While wage growth has outpaced home value growth in most of the United States and thus helped improve affordability, the increase in prices of everyday goods has eaten into those gains. This essentially limits how much prospective buyers can spend on purchasing a home, Zillow said. The Trump administration has taken several actions to tackle affordability issues in the housing market. An aerial view of a residential housing development in Los Angeles on April 3, 2025. Mario Tama/Getty Images The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said on June 23 that it was making multiple changes to its Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Single Family mortgage insurance program, aimed at lowering costs and improving affordability for people looking to secure FHA-insured mortgages. The update eliminated outdated requirements and minimized administrative burdens to ensure that FHA financing becomes more efficient for buyers and lenders. “Every unnecessary regulation comes with a cost, and too often homebuyers pay the price,” HUD Secretary Scott Turner said. “If a policy does not protect taxpayers, improve affordability, or expand opportunity for Americans, we should rethink it. As we recognize National Homeownership Month, these FHA actions reflect that commitment by eliminating barriers to expand homeownership opportunities.” Earlier in April, HUD and the Department of Agriculture rescinded a policy related to energy standards, the enforcement of which would have pushed up the costs of home construction by $20,000 to $31,000, according to HUD. Construction workers build a home at a new housing development in Hercules, Calif., on July 1, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images And in March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Removing Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Home Construction.” In the order, Trump instructed the secretaries of HUD, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Energy to take “appropriate action to reform and, where appropriate, eliminate unduly burdensome or costly energy-efficiency, water-use, or alternative-energy requirements regarding housing.” Trump wrote that unnecessary regulatory barriers and “onerous mandates” had delayed the construction of new homes and driven up their costs, making housing less affordable for American citizens. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 06:55

— Indian Refiners Continue West Africa Crude Buying Spree

 

at 8/7/26 4:30am

Indian Refiners Continue West Africa Crude Buying Spree By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com India’s state-run refiners continue their buying spree of crude from West Africa as the Middle East crisis has sapped supply and made deliveries uncertain. In one of the latest purchases via a tender, India’s state-owned refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has acquired 2 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil from Shell, trade sources told Reuters on Thursday. HPCL has bought 1 million barrels each of Nigerian crude grades Forcados and Bonga for its Visakh refinery in the state of Andhra Pradesh on the east coast of southern India. The refinery has the capacity to process 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude. Earlier this week, reports emerged that HPCL acquired 2 million barrels of Okwuibome and Utapate crudes from Nigeria from commodity trader Glencore via a tender. The Nigerian crude from Glencore will go to feed HPCL’s refinery in the state of Rajasthan, HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited (HRRL), which has a capacity to process 180,000 bpd and in which Hindustan Petroleum holds a 74% stake. The remaining stake is held by the state government of Rajasthan. Several Indian refiners have recently bought crude from Oman and West Africa via tenders, as term supplies from the Middle East remain choked by the shipping constraints at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. State-controlled Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) has acquired about 1 million barrels of crude oil from ‌Oman via a tender, at a premium of some $3 per barrel to Dated Brent, from Mitsui & Co Energy Trading Singapore, trade sources told Reuters earlier this week. In addition, state-run Indian Oil Corporation, the largest refiner by capacity in the country, has bought from Chevron a total of 4 million barrels of West African crude, including Nemba, Saxi Batuque, and Clov grades from Angola, and Congo’s Djeno crude. Indian refiners are in search of crude supply from as far as Angola in Africa and Venezuela in South America as their term supplies from the Middle East were trapped again in July and unable to reach India as planned. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 06:30

— IRGC Strikes 'Hostile Targets' In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US Vessels From Strait

 

at 8/7/26 4:00am

IRGC Strikes 'Hostile Targets' In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US Vessels From Strait Summary Explosions heard near Qeshm island - Iran says it struck 'hostile targets'. Iran parliament reviews draft Hormuz plan banning US- and Israel-linked vessels, oil rises Houthis intensify attacks on Saudi oil shipping in the Red Sea. Yemen fighting escalates amid reports of major casualties. Iran-Oman talks continue as US backs diplomatic solution, searches for offramp. //-- //-- //-- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes 60% · No 40%View full market & trade on Polymarket Iran Struck 'Hostile Targets' in Strait of Hormuz: Fars After explosions were heard on Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media is saying that Iranian forces attacked and struck 'hostile targets' - though the event still remains shrouded in mystery and few details were offered. The US side has also not confirmed anything, and this could also be the result of drone activity.  Iran remains defiant, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having newly asserted in an interview, "Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted." He added that these pressures have "reached their maximum". Oil jumped again on the reports of attacks in the Hormuz Strait area: MS Now continues to report on the 'agreed upon' Iran-Oman deal for Hormuz transit: Oman on Thursday agreed to the framework of a deal with Iran to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil export route that Washington and Tehran have been wrestling to control since the war began, two Middle East diplomats with knowledge of the negotiations told MS NOW. The diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved. But an Iranian government official linked to the deal told MS NOW on Thursday morning that it will establish new shipping routes by allowing commercial vessels to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through a route controlled by Oman. This also as Iranian leaders continue to taunt Washington, with fresh messages such as the following from the country's influential parliament speaker: “Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.” That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater. — محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) August 6, 2026 Deal Details: US-Israeli vessels Banned from Hormuz (Fars) Iranian state media (Fars) has issued details of the Iran-Omani draft plan for transit rules through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The country's parliament is said to currently be reviewing it, while Tehran still insists that the US has been sidelined, saying that the Oman-Iran contacts are bilateral. As cited in Bloomberg from state media, key proposals include: Ban vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and other hostile states Block military and civilian cargo tied to Israel Restrict ships linked to actions against the "Axis of Resistance" Deny passage to parties owing compensation to Iran Impose fines of up to 20% of cargo value for violations The first note about banning US-linked vessels could alone serve to restart the war. The White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this may be too hard a pill to swallow, if accurate. Fars has spelled out that "The passage of vessels belonging to the US, the Israelis, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited." Below are is the fuller outline of the proposed plan as featured by Fars [machine translation]: The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israelis and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited. Ships related to Israel, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit through this area. Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban. Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid. Heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of the goods, will be imposed on violators. The cargo is anticipated. The government will be required, in cooperation with the armed forces, to assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf. This plan is still in the expert review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it. Oil spikes on the headlines of a very clearly 'Iran-favorable' 'deal' - which Washington is unlikely to simply accept. Does this portend a return to active conflict? Yemeni 'Blockade for Blockade' Could Threaten Delicate Hormuz Negotiations Yesterday witnessed at least the eighth Saudi oil tanker attacked by the Houthis since the maritime blockade began on July 22, which is being followed by reports the Yemeni rebel group backed by Iran could be preparing for all-out war with Saudi Arabia. The group struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Wednesday and coupled the action with a threat to intensify attacks in order to close "all access routes" to Saudi oil shipments. Military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree confirmed that ballistic missiles were launched at a Saudi tanker called Wafa near the Saudi port city of Yanbu. A second oil tanker identified as Daisy was subsequently hit in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile and "forced to turn back" - the spokesman said in a social media post. The Houthis are dubbing it a "blockade for blockade" strategy. via AFP Large New Saudi-Backed Operation? But it seems the Saudis aren't ready to take this laying down, even if the ratcheting Red Sea region conflict threatens fragile Oman-sponsored talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as on Thursday its proxy the Yemeni Armed Forces - representing the official government whose seat is in Aden in the south - announced preparations for a large new military operation. This as Al Arabiya reports a fresh outbreak of ground fighting, in a renewal and intensification of the civil war that goes back to at least 2015 (and has an international proxy war aspect to it). The Arab publication says that a Houthi attack killed 45 government forces in Hadramawt and Marib in Yemen, areas which also happen to be home to the vast majority of the country's oil and gas fields. Separately Al Jazeera describes of the same event: The Yemeni Emergency Forces of the internationally-recognised government, have said that there have been material and human losses following attacks on its camps. Several causalities have been reported after a suspected Houthi rocket and drone attack targeted bases hosting the forces in Marib and Hadramaut. So now it seems that even if a grand Hormuz deal to reopen energy transit can be pulled off with some level of sticking power, there will have to be a separate ceasefire to contain the Yemen and Bab al-Mandab Strait crisis. To some degree, the Houthi closure of the Red Sea to Saudi shipping represents a good cop, bad cop approach to the United States and its Gulf allies. It is a way for Tehran to still maintain some serious tangential leverage over global energy, even as ships in Hormuz could finally get moving again. The Houthis launched ballistic missile and drone strikes on Saudi-backed Yemeni forces in Marib Governorate, targeting several military sites. According to preliminary reports, at least 45 personnel were killed and dozens wounded, with Saudi-aligned media confirming the attacks… pic.twitter.com/uThIgebcfe — Conflict Radar (@Conflict_Radar) August 6, 2026 Houthis Pivotal in Iran's 'Axis of Resistance'  As a reminder, the Houthis have been part of what Iran sees as the "axis of resistance" going back to when the Shia rebel group first seized power in September 2014: Saudi Arabia is now being squeezed from three directions in the widening U.S.-Iran war — Iraq to its northeast, Yemen to its southwest, and Iran to its east. (On July 18, Tehran struck Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh, its first direct hit on Saudi soil in nearly four months.) To understand why this matters beyond the price of oil, it helps to picture the crises as a set of nesting dolls. The innermost doll is Yemen’s own civil war: a decade-old fight between the Houthis (officially known as Ansar Allah), who rule the populous north from Sana’a, and Yemen’s internationally recognized government, formally led by a body called the Presidential Leadership Council. The roots of this war trace to the 2011 Arab Spring revolution, which toppled Yemen’s long-serving president and left a power vacuum the Houthis moved to fill, seizing Sana’a in 2014. Saudi Arabia and a coalition of partners intervened in 2015 with the explicit aim of reversing that takeover and restoring the internationally recognized government, and the war has continued in one form or another ever since. The middle doll is Saudi Arabia’s broader rivalry with Iran, a contest for regional leadership that has run since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Tehran’s new theocratic government began exporting a revolutionary, Shia-inflected challenge to the Gulf’s Sunni monarchies. In the meantime, Al Jazeera is reporting Thursday that the Saudi-backed government shot down a drone operated by the Houthis over the city of Marib. The country's official SABA news agency said the Houthi targeting of Marib "embodies their escalatory approach and their insistence on continuing their terrorist acts" and that "the air defenses engaged the drone as soon as it entered the city’s airspace and successfully shot it down." Over in the Persian Gulf region, Iran officials have said a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is "on the verge of being finalized" which entry and exit routes and protocols having been established. Iran continues to say that Washington has nothing to do with this, and warns against US military interference. The White House seems to be quite serious about ensuring an offramp from the conflict this time, as the bombs have fallen silent for several days now... ?? US Vice President JD Vance said diplomatic negotiations with Iran are "going to be messy" and will "take some time," in an interview on Fox News, a more cautious tone than President Donald Trump, who claimed earlier this week that "a lot of progress" had been made. ?"That… — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) August 6, 2026 Trump: I'd Rather Make a Deal than Kill People But lots of unknowns and variables remain, as some international reports suggest a final deal could be signed as early as the close of Thursday, or at least by week's end. Al Jazeera notes: "For Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US must abide by the memorandum of understanding (MoU) it signed with Iran in mid-June, although that would not be enough on its own, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in comments carried by Iran’s IRNA news agency." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has newly warned that "We're ready to ‌retaliate, but finding a diplomatic solution is the best way to avoid wider escalation and destruction ​across ‌the ⁠region." Perhaps its indicative of general Iran war fatigue, but the US appears poised to agree to a deal that recognizes Iran's claim to control over the Strait of Hormuz--an unthinkable concession even a few weeks ago--and I'm seeing very little discussion of it among the commentariat. — Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) August 6, 2026 As for President Trump, he has freshly stated, "I'd rather make a deal because I don't want to kill people. But Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon." Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 06:00

— How The World Views China Vs The US In 2026

 

at 8/7/26 3:45am

How The World Views China Vs The US In 2026 The United States and China are the world’s two preeminent superpowers, but views of them vary widely by country. This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, compares approval ratings for Beijing and Washington using survey results from more than 42,000 respondents across 36 countries. The survey was conducted in February 2026 by the Pew Research Center. China Now Leads in Global Favorability Public opinion in many countries has shifted in China’s favor amid changes in U.S. diplomacy and foreign policy. In 27 of the 36 countries surveyed, China received a higher approval rating than the United States. These include U.S. allies and neighbors such as Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. The following table lists 2026 approval ratings for China and the U.S. across all 36 countries surveyed. Country Approval (%) of U.S. ?? Approval (%) of China ?? China-U.S. Gap (%) ?? Pakistan 15 90 75 ?? Malaysia 19 75 56 ?? Palestine 9 57 48 ?? Indonesia 29 72 43 ?? Singapore 34 73 39 ?? Thailand 36 69 33 ?? Sri Lanka 42 72 30 ?? Bangladesh 26 56 30 ?? Turkey 13 43 30 ?? Spain 30 54 24 ?? Italy 31 51 20 ?? Mexico 40 59 19 ?? Greece 37 55 18 ?? South Africa 35 52 17 ?? Nigeria 63 78 15 ?? Kenya 63 76 13 ?? Chile 37 49 12 ?? Canada 33 44 11 ?? Peru 51 61 10 ?? France 27 36 9 ?? Netherlands 25 34 9 ?? Sweden 19 27 8 ?? Australia 24 31 7 ?? Argentina 44 50 6 ?? Germany 27 33 6 ?? UK 41 46 5 ?? Colombia 60 63 3 ?? Brazil 47 46 -1 ?? Ghana 68 64 -4 ?? Hungary 58 53 -5 ?? Poland 49 39 -10 ?? Philippines 56 40 -16 ?? South Korea 45 28 -17 ?? India 45 23 -22 ?? Japan 50 11 -39 ?? Israel 81 19 -62 Pakistan has the largest favorability gap. China has a 90% approval rating among Pakistanis, compared with 15% for the United States, a difference of 75 percentage points. After Pakistan, the largest gaps are found in Malaysia, Palestine, and Indonesia. In each of these Muslim-majority countries, a majority of respondents view China favorably, while fewer than one-third view the United States favorably. U.S. Soft Power Abroad In the Americas, respondents in every surveyed country except Brazil view China more favorably than the United States. The results from the United States’ two direct neighbors are particularly notable. One-third of Canadians and 40% of Mexicans view the U.S. favorably, compared with 44% and 59%, respectively, for China. Both countries have faced heightened trade tensions with their shared neighbor. U.S. allies farther from North America tend to view Washington more favorably. The U.S. receives its highest approval rating in Israel (81%), followed by Ghana (68%) and Kenya and Nigeria (63% each). Several U.S. allies closer in proximity to China also favor Washington over Beijing, including India, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Europe’s Balancing Act Across Europe, China receives higher approval ratings than the United States in every surveyed country except Poland. In Poland, 49% of respondents view the U.S. favorably, compared with 39% for China. Perceptions of the United States have declined across much of the continent. Long-standing U.S. allies such as France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands now rate China more favorably. Economic tensions, tariffs, and disputes involving Greenland may have contributed to weaker transatlantic sentiment. However, the Pew survey measures public opinion rather than the specific reasons behind these views. To learn more about how the two superpowers compete through their diplomatic networks, read China Tops Global Diplomacy Index on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 05:45

— "Promises Are Fairy Tales": NATO Will Not Accept Ukraine

 

at 8/7/26 3:00am

"Promises Are Fairy Tales": NATO Will Not Accept Ukraine Authored by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida via GlobalResearch.ca, Apparently, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is increasingly being dismissed as unrealistic. Even the regime’s most hardline officials seem to have lost hope regarding Kiev’s accession to the Western military alliance, considering that such a move does not serve NATO’s current strategic interests.    In a recent statement, Valery Zaluzhny – Ukraine’s current ambassador to the UK, former head of the country’s armed forces, now widely considered Zelensky’s top rival – asserted that Kiev will never join the Atlantic defense bloc. According to him, promises of membership are merely “fairy tales” that do not reflect reality.    Zaluzhny stated that he is very familiar with NATO’s internal structures and understands how the bloc actually operates. According to him, promises regarding Ukraine’s entry into the bloc are nothing new. Over the course of 12 years working alongside alliance officials, Zaluzhny says he constantly heard such promises, yet saw no particular reason to believe they would materialize now.    While lamenting that the alliance will never truly accept Ukraine as a member, Zaluzhny criticizes the current situation of the Western bloc, asserting that NATO’s military doctrine is outdated, making the alliance strategically inferior to Russia. Zaluzhny believes it is urgent for NATO to undergo comprehensive military reform and revise its doctrine to align with contemporary realities. He believes Ukraine could contribute to this process but regrets that this will not be possible, given the alliance’s refusal to accept Ukraine as a member.   “I know NATO very well (…) or about 12 years, I personally worked to ensure that we adopted NATO standards, and every year I listened to fairy tales that we were about to join. Unfortunately, we will never join it (…) NATO will most likely remain in its current form and will spend another 12 years – just as Ukraine did – transitioning to the standards required to reach even half the level of the Russian Federation,” he said.    Zaluzhny, however, does not entirely rule out the possibility of Ukraine joining a Western military organization. While acknowledging NATO’s lack of interest in admitting Ukraine, he alleges that his country could eventually join a “European military security bloc.” This would only be possible, however, if EU nations and the UK agreed to move forward with creating a regional military alliance outside the NATO umbrella – something many analysts doubt will happen, given American influence over European decision-making.    In fact, there are some interesting points in Zaluzhny’s statement. He is correct in stating that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO. The Kiev regime plays a very specific role in NATO’s war plans – precisely that of a proxy or external ally. NATO cannot include Ukraine as a member, as doing so would force the alliance to intervene directly in a war against Russia, which would obviously be a disaster, possibly even nuclear. In this sense, Ukraine’s role as a military proxy is only viable as long as the country remains outside the Western defense bloc.    He is also right to criticize NATO’s outdated strategy regarding Russia. In fact, NATO decision-makers have never moved beyond the military doctrines of the last century. This has been clearly reflected in the current disastrous anti-Russian military campaign, in which the Kiev regime, guided by NATO, is suffering substantial losses.    Zaluzhny, however, fails to point out how Ukraine is ignoring its own military tradition on the battlefield in favor of using precisely the same outdated NATO concepts. The military doctrine employed by Ukraine is not autonomous. Ukraine shares a military history with Russia rooted in their Soviet and imperial pasts. If the Ukrainians were following their own military doctrine, they would be using tactics similar to Russia’s -focused on preserving soldiers’ lives rather than conducting large-scale direct combat campaigns.    However, the Ukrainian armed forces follow NATO orders, which is why they use outdated warfare techniques unsuited to the reality of contemporary combat -characterized by high technology and the massive use of drones. So, in practice, Ukraine would have nothing to add to NATO regarding military doctrine, since the country already adopted NATO’s own doctrine when it agreed to act as a proxy.    A common argument used by proponents of Ukrainian accession is that the country could contribute to NATO with its real combat experience. In fact, the country has been facing Russia in a large-scale conflict for four years, gaining combat experience that no Western alliance nation possesses. The problem, however, is determining how much of the Ukrainian military apparatus will remain once the conflict ends. The regime has already lost nearly its entire original military contingent and is now relying on forced mobilization to keep its forces active. In this scenario, that experience may count for little, given that the soldiers involved in combat are mostly untrained men sent to certain death on the front lines.    If NATO didn’t want Ukraine before – when it had the second-largest army in Europe – it certainly won’t accept it now, when it is a failed state fighting with the help of its civilians snatched off the streets. The Ukrainian dream of membership seems increasingly unattainable. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 05:00

— Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch

 

at 8/7/26 2:15am

Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is "what keeps her up at night." She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period. Benchmark TTF futures have fallen 7% this week to about 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but Dart maintained her 60-euro balance-of-third-quarter forecast. She noted that Northwest European LNG imports missed July expectations by 2.1 million tons on an annualized basis, leaving storage just 43% full at month-end versus the 45.5% projected. The latest Bloomberg data shows that Europe's NatGas storage is about 57.87% full, roughly 18 percentage points below the 2009–25 average. "Specifically, the July miss in European LNG imports (and the resulting miss in storage fill) vs our expectations suggest that European gas storage still has some catching up to do, while LNG supply availability remains uncertain," Dart wrote in the note. Dart continued, emphasizing that Europe must accelerate NatGas injections to reach her 67% storage target by the end of October. Higher potential Qatari exports, weaker Asian spot demand and reduced Egyptian imports could free additional cargoes for Europe, though an early drop in TTF prices risks redirecting LNG back toward Asia. Dart warned that if Gulf energy exports recover only gradually, December TTF prices may need to exceed 100 euros to curb Asian demand. A faster reopening of the Hormuz maritime chokepoint could push prices to 40 euros. Dart continued: On net, we still see risks to our winter TTF price forecast skewed to the upside. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that Dec26 TTF would likely need to move above 100 EUR/MWh, 110% above our 50 EUR/MWh base case, to significantly discourage Asia LNG demand. In contrast, we estimate that a faster-than-expected ramp of Hormuz flows would allow TTF to sell off back in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold of 40 EUR/MWh, 20% below our current Dec26 TTF price base case. Putting it all together, if disruptions in the Hormuz persist, Europe could enter winter with NatGas and diesel inventories well below seasonal norms, setting the stage for another surge in energy prices. Professional subscribers can read more NatGas notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 04:15

— Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch

 

at 8/7/26 2:15am

Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is "what keeps her up at night." She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period. Benchmark TTF futures have fallen 7% this week to about 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but Dart maintained her 60-euro balance-of-third-quarter forecast. She noted that Northwest European LNG imports missed July expectations by 2.1 million tons on an annualized basis, leaving storage just 43% full at month-end versus the 45.5% projected. The latest Bloomberg data shows that Europe's NatGas storage is about 57.87% full, roughly 18 percentage points below the 2009–25 average. "Specifically, the July miss in European LNG imports (and the resulting miss in storage fill) vs our expectations suggest that European gas storage still has some catching up to do, while LNG supply availability remains uncertain," Dart wrote in the note. Dart continued, emphasizing that Europe must accelerate NatGas injections to reach her 67% storage target by the end of October. Higher potential Qatari exports, weaker Asian spot demand and reduced Egyptian imports could free additional cargoes for Europe, though an early drop in TTF prices risks redirecting LNG back toward Asia. Dart warned that if Gulf energy exports recover only gradually, December TTF prices may need to exceed 100 euros to curb Asian demand. A faster reopening of the Hormuz maritime chokepoint could push prices to 40 euros. Dart continued: On net, we still see risks to our winter TTF price forecast skewed to the upside. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that Dec26 TTF would likely need to move above 100 EUR/MWh, 110% above our 50 EUR/MWh base case, to significantly discourage Asia LNG demand. In contrast, we estimate that a faster-than-expected ramp of Hormuz flows would allow TTF to sell off back in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold of 40 EUR/MWh, 20% below our current Dec26 TTF price base case. Putting it all together, if disruptions in the Hormuz persist, Europe could enter winter with NatGas and diesel inventories well below seasonal norms, setting the stage for another surge in energy prices. Professional subscribers can read more NatGas notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 04:15

— Cambridge's Black Time-Travelling Professor (And His Many Superhuman Feats)

 

at 8/7/26 1:30am

Cambridge's Black Time-Travelling Professor (And His Many Superhuman Feats) Authored by Mark Collett, Running a single marathon is a great achievement. Running 30 marathons is a spectacular feat. Running 30 marathons in 35 days is something only a world-class athlete could achieve. But running 30 marathons in 35 days, and running the final nine of those marathons with a broken leg – that’s an impossible feat that would require superhuman powers. But that is exactly what Jason Arday has claimed to achieve. But that’s not all, Jason Arday’s incredible feats aren’t just limited to running nearly 240 miles on a fractured leg without medical intervention, he also claimed to have run 600 miles in six days on a treadmill (without any evidence), played both football and snooker at a professional level (a boast that was apparently taken out of context), raised over £5.5 million for charity (but can’t name a single donor), managed to go 15 years with a barely a wink of sleep, and even appeared on the famous television documentary series Seven Up! – which originally premiered a whole 21 years before he was even born. This is the story of Cambridge University’s youngest-ever black professor, who was appointed as Professor of the Sociology of Education in 2023. Jason Arday was born in 1985 on a council estate in Clapham, South London, to Ghanaian parents – a humble beginning for a man who would go on to achieve so much. But Jason would not only achieve great feats, but he would do so against all the odds, overcoming what some may have called ‘impossible barriers’ during his meteoric rise to greatness. At just three years of age, Jason was diagnosed with global developmental delay and autism spectrum disorder, leading medical experts and therapists to predict that he would require assisted living for the rest of his life. But this wasn’t the end of young Jason’s struggles – he was completely non-verbal throughout his early childhood and communicated entirely using sign language and as a result he didn’t learn to speak until he was 11 years-old. He credited his mother for helping him break through his silence by using music, rhythm, and song lyrics to connect him to language – the power of love and song set him on the road to such success. However, due to his late language and speech development, he did not learn to read or write until he was 18 years-old. Allegedly. And the word ‘allegedly’ should precede many of Jason’s achievements and boastful tales. It is a well-known medical and biological fact that learning to speak a language fluently after the age of 11 – if a person has been completely non-verbal since birth – is incredibly difficult due to a biological phenomenon known as the critical period hypothesis. Whilst it is not always absolutely impossible, it is one of the steepest challenges in cognitive science. This is because children’s brains form billions of neural connections specifically designed to map sounds to meaning, however, around the point when a child passes through puberty (roughly at the age of 11 to 13), the brain undergoes what is known as “synaptic pruning”. Neural connections that were not used – such as the neural pathways for processing and producing spoken speech – are cleared away or repurposed. Once this pruning happens, the brain loses the elasticity required to naturally absorb language structure. But it’s not all just about neural pathways, when someone speaks, their brain must also simultaneously coordinate the lungs, vocal cords, tongue, teeth, and lips. This motor mapping is trained continuously through babbling and talking during infancy and childhood. A person who has been non-verbal for 11 years has not built these specific motor pathways, making the physical act of clear speech production highly uncoordinated and laborious. But miraculously, Jason beat all the odds, and at the last possible moment he learnt to speak. But the miracles just kept on coming and Jason managed to attend local schools in South London and eventually left secondary education with two GCSEs – one in Physical Education and one in Textiles. But despite the mountainous struggles that would have beaten most men, Jason was determined to go further still – and eventually, not even the boundaries of time itself would hold him back. Determined to pursue sports and teaching, Jason then went to a local college to study for a BTEC diploma, which allowed him to bridge the gap into higher education. This was another major milestone for the young achiever – and this herculean feat was made even greater as Jason claimed that due to his late language development, he did not learn to read or write until he was 18 years-old. Some may scoff at Jason’s two GCSEs and BTEC diploma, but to have achieved these grades whilst not even being able to read and write proved that he was nothing short of a child prodigy. Jason then went on into higher education, and graduated from St Mary’s University in Twickenham in 2008 with a BA in Education Studies and Physical Education before serving as the university’s Student Union Athletics President for a year immediately following his graduation. For many, this would be the end of a long and arduous academic road, but to Jason, it was just the beginning. Jason then went on to earn an MA in Education and Pedagogy from St Mary’s and later completed a PGCE at the Institute of Education to become a qualified school PE teacher. At this point, after achieving so much, and overcoming so many almost insurmountable hurdles, he could have entered a well-paid role in teaching. But Jason was still hungry for more, leading to his transitioning into the subject of Sociology of Education and going on to earn a Master of Education (MEd) followed by a PhD in Education from Liverpool John Moores University in 2015. This would have been incredible enough, but due to Jason’s humble background, he had no financial backing, and whilst passing through educational institutions at breakneck speed he was forced to work part-time retail shifts to fund his higher education tuition. Not only did Jason beat all the odds as a late starter, but he was both an academic genius and a hard worker. But looking at Jason’s impressive academic résumé, it appears that mathematical qualifications are sadly absent, and that may be why things just don’t seem to add up. We are meant to believe that a boy who was completely non-verbal due to autism and global developmental delay until age 11 and who was unable to read or write until 18, then went on to earn a PhD by the age of 29. This means that in just 11 years Jason managed to learn basic literacy and catch up on all those years of missed schooling, complete an undergraduate degree (which typically takes 3 years), complete two separate Master’s degrees (typically taking 1-2 years each), complete a PGCE teacher training qualification (taking 1 year) and then write a 100,000-word PhD dissertation (taking typically 3-4 years). In just over a decade, Jason had not only learnt to read and write, but condensed 12 years of higher education into a near record-breaking period of time that would prove his hyper-accelerated cognitive processing abilities were second to none. And he did it all whilst working multiple jobs and without sleeping. Jason’s story was remarkable – some may even go as far as to state that it was unbelievable – but it wouldn’t be long before educational institutions up and down the country would begin falling over themselves to offer him prestigious well-paid positions. Once he had completed his PhD, Jason secured his first major permanent academic post at the University of Roehampton, entering the institution directly as a Senior Lecturer in Physical Education, and it must be noted, this rapid entry without years of junior postdoctoral research was highly unusual, but surely by this point, extraordinary achievements were nothing more than everyday occurrences for Jason. Jason then went on to join Durham University’s Department of Sociology before being rapidly promoted into an executive role. Within just a year, Durham University had promoted Jason to Associate Professor. Alongside this, he was named the Deputy Executive Dean for People and Culture within the Faculty of Social Sciences and Health. Interestingly, and rather tellingly, this executive role placed him in charge of institutional diversity and inclusion initiatives. But the meteoric rise of the non-verbal black youth from inner city London wasn’t over yet. In 2021 Jason stepped into a new role at the University of Glasgow, joining their School of Education to take the position of Chair in the subject of Sociology of Education – another milestone had been achieved, as he was now a full professor. And at the tender age of 35, this appointment officially made him one of the youngest full professors in the whole of the United Kingdom. It was at this point Jason’s numerous lofty achievements and incredible superhuman feats caught the attention of officials at Cambridge University – one of the most prestigious and influential institutions of higher education in human history had now noticed him and they wanted him on their team. And in March 2023, at just 37 years-old, Jason was appointed to the prestigious Professorial Chair of Sociology of Education at Cambridge’s Faculty of Education and was then concurrently elected as a Fellow of Jesus College. This appointment broke the record for the youngest Black professor in the university’s history. Jason was now at the very pinnacle of academic excellence; his fairytale story was now complete. This is the point where the tale should come to an end, where things should be wrapped up nicely with a big red bow and where Jason receives the applause and recognition he deserves. And that would be how the story ends, if any of his achievements could actually be verified. But at this juncture some uncharitable folk might claim that Jason was just making it all up, and that the only reason anyone believed him is because lecturers and those with institutional power wanted to promote him in order to prove a very specific and racially charged point. It has been noted that people working within modern higher education, and specifically in institutions like Cambridge, Durham, and Glasgow are highly motivated to promote ‘diverse’ talent, especially if that ‘talent’ has a powerful, motivational and inspirational narrative attached. Jason was everything that liberal multiculturalists could have dreamed of, so much so, that university officials all over the UK were so eager to celebrate the story of a non-verbal black man that had beaten all the odds, that they skipped any of the standard, rigorous vetting of his academic work that one might usually expect. That is exactly how Jason ended up in his position at Cambridge, not so much because of Jason’s myriad of self-professed achievements, but because the institution never checked any of his claims. And this isn’t mere conjecture: the University of Cambridge has now admitted that officials did not conduct an independent textual analysis when hiring Professor Jason Arday in 2023, instead, their vetting process relied heavily on ‘institutional trust’ and ‘reputation’ rather than any raw forensic auditing. In short, because Jason had already been vetted, hired, and promoted to senior positions by three other highly respected institutions (Roehampton, Durham, and Glasgow), Cambridge’s hiring panel assumed his foundational work was immaculate. Instead, Cambridge University’s appointment panel was deeply captivated by Jason’s unique, highly inspirational backstory and the focus of the hiring process was centred on his vision for the sociology department and his high-profile advocacy work surrounding diversity and inclusion, rather than a line-by-line verification of his past work. After all, who needs to know if a candidate can actually do the job they are being hired for when they fit the diversity profile so perfectly? But unfortunately for Jason and his eager backers – Cambridge University, a number of other respected academic institutions and several publishers – this isn’t where the story ends, and Jason doesn’t get to leave the stage to rapturous applause. Earlier this year, allegations would emerge that suggested that Jason’s unbelievable backstory and his near impossible achievements weren’t quite as real as some claimed. An analysis of Jason’s 2015 PhD thesis, which was awarded by Liverpool John Moores University, revealed something truly shocking: the document contained 188 sentences that were identical or nearly identical to a thesis written by a student at Brunel University in 2009. But these issues weren’t just limited to Jason’s PhD, textual overlaps were then identified in several of Jason’s subsequent journal articles, leading to two separate journals issuing formal correction notes. In some papers, Jason allegedly recycled borrowed text and framed the lines as “direct quotes” from research subjects he claimed to have interviewed himself. Worse still, The Times later uncovered severe flaws in his references, including data discrepancies and the complete omission of a research participant who Jason previously claimed had taken their own life. This would have been enough to sink any other high-profile academic. However, Jason’s run of incredible feats and unbelievable luck only continued. Cambridge University were so enamoured with Jason that when this new information came to light and accusations of plagiarism emerged, the university’s immediate institutional response was not to question Jason, but instead to defend him. Senior figures from Cambridge University completely dismissed the allegations, framing any criticism of their all-star black professor as a “vile campaign of bullying” directed at a vulnerable, dyslexic and autistic scholar. But as more and more allegations surfaced, Cambridge University officials changed their tactics, and attempted to distance themselves and the institution from the core issue by stating that investigating a PhD thesis is strictly the legal responsibility of the institution that awarded it – they were passing the responsibility back to Liverpool John Moores University. And the response of those who should have checked his work in the first place was just as telling. Colleagues and peer-reviewers admitted to being hesitant to question Jason’s data or writing style out of fear of looking like they were attacking a vulnerable, autistic scholar – in short, no one wanted to question the black academic prodigy, they just wanted to put him on a pedestal to prove a point. But now, and rather ironically, all eyes were on Jason Arday – but not quite in the way that he wanted, as people were now increasingly focusing on the details of his work rather than his tall tales. As a result, independent researchers began feeding Jason’s published work into advanced anti-plagiarism software and the truth was plain for all to see. Several major academic publishers were forced to confront the reality that their peer-review processes had overlooked glaring and obvious anomalies. But the embarrassment wasn’t yet over, as Jason had published several highly regarded books with a company called Routledge, a leader in academic publishing. When complaints were first made regarding text-recycling and uncredited overlap in these texts, Routledge initially stood by their man. However, as the sheer volume of identical sentences became public, the publisher was humiliatingly forced to initiate a series of formal internal reviews. Everything was coming crashing down – and there was only one thing Jason could do. And if you thought that would be to admit to his alleged wrong doings, apologise and walk things back, you would be entirely incorrect. It was in fact time to double down, and invent another story to make everyone feel sorry for him in the hope that the whole incident would just go away and people would stop talking about his alleged plagiarism. And this is where Jason would reveal a final, previously hidden chapter to his remarkable story, it was time for him to tell the world that he had of course been the victim of racism. When Jason had first joined Cambridge University as a professor, he had been the victim of a hate campaign and all this talk of plagiarism and falsified superhuman feats of endurance risked stirring up another maelstrom of bigotry. But it wasn’t enough to claim that he had merely been the victim of hate, Jason had to go further: claiming that a severed pig’s head had been sent to him as part of a sudden escalation of abuse and threats that were specifically aimed at him due to his high-profile appointment as the university’s youngest black professor. This incredible claim would surely silence all of his critics, as once the police reports and photos of this obscene crime were made public, no one would dare to question the black genius and his remarkable stories. There was only one small problem: Jason did not report the delivery of the pig’s head to the police when it allegedly took place. He claimed that he intercepted a large cardboard box at his parents’ house in South London, on opening the box, he discovered the pig’s head and did what anyone else would do – threw it straight into a wheelie bin and waited several months before calling the police. Well, at least he reported it to the police in the end, so a crime number would back up his harrowing tale. What’s more, Jason was so sure of his interaction with the police, that he went on to claim to reporters that when the police finally investigated the hateful act, they managed to trace the animal back to a local butcher who sold a “whole hog” on the morning that the severed head was delivered to his parents’ house. However, unfortunately for Jason, the Metropolitan Police keep records of crimes that are reported, and they revealed that after an extensive search, there was no evidence whatsoever of any such report or subsequent investigation. This surely must have been the result of institutional racism within the Met Police and officers must have destroyed all evidence of the report. But at least Jason could still rely on the butcher to confirm the details of this gruesome hate crime. Yet in a final bizarre twist, reporters from The Guardian (who were no doubt driven by a desperate attempt to prove Jason’s story to be true) visited the specific South London butcher that Jason himself had named as the providers of the hog. However, the staff at the shop stated that no police officers had ever come in to question them about a pig’s head, dryly noting, “That’s the kind of thing we’d remember.” Indeed, who could forget such a thing? One would expect that opening a large parcel only to discover a severed pig’s head nestled within would be rather unforgettable – but in the case of Jason, this may have been just another one of many rather extraordinary occurrences. But as we live in a technological wonderland where everyone has a telephone in their back pocket featuring a high-resolution camera, this kind of extraordinary occurrence would surely result in a photograph being taken. However strangely, Jason did not even take a single picture of the offending item before hurling it into a wheelie bin and according to the police – never even reporting the incident. Strange behaviour for a man of such incredible academic stature, after all, a man who had mastered time travel could surely operate a simple device like a smartphone. It seems that just as with Jason’s academic work, accurate citations were sadly lacking. But the embarrassment was not over yet, as Jason’s friends and colleagues at Cambridge, who were interviewed by the press, all claim he never even mentioned the incident to them. It’s almost as if it never even happened. Backed into a corner, Jason was faced with only one final option: it was time to go nuclear; it was time for him to scream the word ‘racism’ as loudly as he could and then wait for the cavalry. This is exactly what he did, and he got exactly the result he had hoped for, as more than 12,000 people – including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, at least five Labour MPs and a gaggle of Cambridge academics all signed a petition set up by the Good Law Project supporting him. What’s more, fellow black academics were up in arms about his treatment, with Kehinde Andrews, professor of Black Studies at Birmingham City University, bellowing profusely that Jason was a good boy and he didn’t do anything wrong. In fact, according to Kehinde, poor Jason was merely the victim of a “smear campaign” that was “as predictable as it is baseless”. But it wasn’t just black academics who were angered, white professors also fell over themselves to come to Jason’s defence, with Alan Lester, a University of Sussex Geography professor who specialises in colonialism, calling the entire saga a “non-story”. But the best was yet to come. Jewish cognitive neuroscientist, Fellow of Trinity College and director of Cambridge University’s Autism Research Centre – Sir Simon Baron-Cohen – raised important concerns about the impact that the media coverage was having on Jason and his mental health. As Jason had been through so much, and achieved so many great feats, Simon Baron-Cohen wanted everyone to just shut up and stop talking about the issue, stating: “We should of course always investigate plagiarism to protect academic standards; however, I cannot stand by and watch when an autistic man is on the ground and the kicking continues. This is relentless bullying of a vulnerable autistic man and raises safe-guarding issues. It’s time to stop.” According to Baron-Cohen, this wasn’t about truth, academic integrity or standards in higher education, this was now a ‘safeguarding issue’ and what’s more, it was ‘bullying’. If Jason Arday had been white, it would have undoubtedly been the case that he would have either resigned, or been forced out of his lucrative position. However, at the time of writing, Cambridge University’s leadership is actively shielding him from any scrutiny, citing a prior institutional clearance. An academic misconduct panel at Liverpool John Moores University – which awarded Jason his PhD – reviewed the 188 copied sentences in March 2026 and cleared him of intentional misconduct, ruling the overlaps were an “honest and reasonable error” caused by a depleted student supervision team. They too wanted the world to know: Jason was indeed a good boy who didn’t do anything wrong and that the copied sentences weren’t his fault. Cambridge have now officially declared Jason the victim of a “vile campaign to undermine his credibility” driven by right-wing media outlets and their Faculty of Education is actively providing him with safety infrastructure, including panic alarms and specialist staff to security-screen his mail – who are no doubt on high-alert for severed animal heads. What’s more, despite everything that has happened, the commercial book publishers he has deals with have also confirmed they are still proceeding with his upcoming titles as planned. [Update: Arday has resigned "with immediate effect", the university said it had launched an investigation into Professor Jason Arday "following new information" about his "academic qualifications and honorary appointments". He said his resignation should not "be interpreted as a loss of faith in scholarship or in the values that first brought me to Cambridge. Nor should it be mistaken for an acceptance of the narratives that have surrounded me." Arday said "this is not the end of my work" and that he needed "time to heal".] But even now, with all these facts, assertions and allegations out in the wild, the public isn’t left with many answers – only more questions. Was Jason Arday really non-verbal until 11 years of age? Did he miraculously learn to speak at the very last minute with the help of music? Could he really not read and write until the age of 18? If he could not read and write until 18, how on earth did he get two GCSEs and a BTEC diploma? Some of what we have been told is undoubtedly true – he did indeed go to several major universities – but that raises even more questions. How could anyone even apply to a university if they were still learning to read and write? And why would a university accept a student who couldn’t read or write properly? And if he did learn to read and write at the age of 18, how did he compress such a large amount of learning into a single year of work? So many questions, and these questions are all about events and achievements that allegedly took place before Jason even got to university and before he allegedly began copying the work of others. But then there are a string of pressing questions about his time in higher education. Why didn’t those checking his work go over it properly? How did Jason manage to get his work through the peer review process, and who were the peers who reviewed it? What work did he present when attending interviews for lucrative and prestigious positions, and how do institutions decide whether a candidate is suitable for the role? There are people out there who can answer these questions, but they never will. In fact, the only way any of this could be verified is if we had a time machine, and there’s only one person in this whole sorry tale who claims to have broken the laws of physics and travelled back through time – and conveniently, that is of course Jason. Which all leads to only one conclusion: a young black man who was woefully underqualified ended up being ushered through educational institutions and was given a pass at every level in order to unfairly elevate him in a blatant attempt to prove a political point. Jason Arday is the ultimate token black academic, and universities built him up because of that. And that’s really the point; this isn’t just a story about a silly man with a big mouth and an overactive imagination. This story is really about the fact that one particular silly man with a big mouth and an overactive imagination ended up as a Cambridge University Professor with a number of academic book deals. And the reason he ended up in that position is simple: it wasn’t because of his incredible achievements; it was because of his ethnic background and the sob story he sold to a panel who were no doubt overwhelmingly made up of white liberals. One of the supposed strengths of the academic system is that it is meant to have rigorous checks in place to ensure those who are underqualified do not get into positions of power or authority, and these checks and balances are not only there to ensure fairness and to guarantee that only the best of the best take the top positions in leading universities, but also to ensure that at the heart of academia is a system of structured meritocracy. This meritocracy is not only to ensure the cream rises to the top, but to create a constant upward cycle that leads to ever-increasing standards and that academic boundaries are constantly tested and pushed. But this all goes out the window if a candidate is from an ethnic minority background. The fact that Jason Arday rose to such a position is a damning indictment of the current state of academic institutions in Britain. But this story also illustrates another important issue – this wasn’t a one-off failing involving a single university and a small number of officials, but a national systemic failing involving dozens of people at multiple top-tier universities and publishing houses. It is clear, these institutions have given up on the ideals of meritocracy and excellence, and have instead elevated diversity, equity and inclusion as the most important virtues in modern education. This is not only unfair to better and more qualified candidates who have genuinely worked harder and deserve the job in question, but it also inevitably leads to a decline in the overall quality of an institution. But the damage done is not just limited to the institution in question, but is part of a wider process of societal and civilisational decline. What’s more, it is a sign that elite institutions are no longer dominated by scholars who strive for knowledge and truth, but instead are controlled by those who have an almost religious belief in multiculturalism and diversity. This religious belief is so great, that when a man like Jason Arday walks into an institution he isn’t just seen as a poster boy, but almost as a form of messiah who can do no wrong and should face no criticism. As such, those who are so eager to place him on a pedestal will not even question the incredible feats he boasts of – no matter how outlandish they are. Instead, officials within elite institutions will parrot the wild boasts of men like Jason Arday, happily spreading the word of the great miracles performed by their latest diversity hire. Officials at Cambridge University seem so in love with the idea of Jason that they appear to be one step away from claiming that after he ran his 35 marathons (9 of which were achieved on a broken leg) he then proceeded to walk on water and feed the entire university with one mackerel and a single loaf of sugar bread. Such is the unquestioning and almost religious belief in Jason Arday, that even now, the university stands by him and he will remain as one of the best paid and most highly revered published academics in Britain. To Britain’s elite educational institutions, Jason Arday’s improbable tales of being non-verbal at 11, running marathons on a broken leg and appearing on a television show that premiered 21 years before he was born weren’t red flags – they were integral reasons as to why they embraced him and put him on a pedestal. And that leads to one final point that must be made clear – an uncomfortable issue that many won’t wish to accept. The case of Jason Arday is absolute proof that the ‘woke’ agenda and shibboleths of ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ are certainly not a thing of the past – in fact they are very much alive and well. The idea spread by some within the media and in online circles that ‘common sense’ has returned and ‘woke’ politics was just a brief period of social madness is nothing more than a lie that is eagerly accepted and parroted by those who wish to believe they are winning. The notion that woke politics is a ‘thing of the past’ is as realistic as the story of a man running nine marathons on a broken leg – and anyone that chooses to believe either of those assertions is sadly only fooling themselves. Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 03:30

— Zelensky To Make First-Ever Visit To Serbia, In Symbolic 'Slap In The Face' For Russia

 

at 8/7/26 12:45am

Zelensky To Make First-Ever Visit To Serbia, In Symbolic 'Slap In The Face' For Russia Serbia is set to host Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a major first of the war which could set off serious diplomatic tensions with Russia, a longtime Serbian ally and 'friend'. Zelensky will arrive on this first-ever trip on Saturday, August 8, according to Ukrainian officials, despite that Serbia - as a Slavic and Orthodox Christian country - has historically maintained warm ties with Moscow. via Wiki Commons But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has been a leader who has put a little distance between himself in Russia, for example skipping this year's Victory Day Parade in Moscow. He's also been accused of allowing Serbian arms to go to Ukraine, which he's denied. "I believe we will discuss how and in what ways we can help each other on this issue (EU integration, ed.) and, if possible, learn something from one another," Vučić said of the upcoming visit. "That also includes our cooperation in culture, sports, and everything else," the president added. Regional media indicated the two leaders are expected to address Ukraine's move toward EU membership, energy cooperation, as well as economic ties. Zelensky is likely to lobby the Serbian government to take a tougher stance on Russia, for example by joining Western sanctions on Moscow. President Vučić has consistently resisted calls to join anti-Russian international sanctions, however, stressing that the country's position on the matter will remain unchanged. But Serbia is still hugely dependent on Russian energy, and just a week ago it was reported that—  Serbia secured another sanctions waiver from the United States for ​its Russian-owned oil company NIS, energy minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic ‌said on Friday, allowing the firm that supplies most of the country's fuel demand to continue importing crude oil until August 28. The waiver granted by the U.S. Office ​of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) gives NIS, which operates Serbia's only oil ​refinery, more time while Hungary's oil and gas firm MOL negotiates ⁠the purchase of the Russian majority stake in the company. As for Zelensky's state visit, the Kremlin is surely not pleased, given the symbolic nature of Belgrade opening up to Ukraine in essence. Serbia has stood accused of becoming a key element in NATO's Balkan arms pipeline of secretive transfers... Seems Zelenskyy (may) visit Serbia next days/weeks. It follows a long, secretive (but certainly not secret) and massive sale of Serbian ammunition to kill thousands of Russians, facilitated by USA, which made Serbia billions of $ and bought Vucic tolerance with Western capitals. https://t.co/Hpc7ba8LCv — Petrit Selimi (@Petrit) August 6, 2026 An unnamed senior Ukrainian official made no secret of Zelensky's intent is. "We need to pull the Serbs away from Russia’s side," the official said, calling the unprecedented visit to Belgrade a "slap in the face for the Russians." Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 02:45

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